Week 3 Sit 'Em: Eli, Greene, Wallace

- ELI MANNING vs. Tennessee: The Giants' offense is predicated on establishing the run, but it hasn't really worked so far. Even though Eli's got 5 TD passes in two games, figure on New York sticking to the ground game against a Titans secondary that's allowed just one passing TD and one play over 20 yards.

- SHONN GREENE at Miami: It was good to see Shonn getting more involved (15 carries) and being more productive (52 yards) in Week 2 after Week 1's bomb. Unfortunately, he hasn't been good enough, and LaDainian Tomlinson is still lurking in the Jets backfield.

- MIKE WALLACE at Tampa Bay: It sure looks like any value Wallace will have in 2010 will have to wait until Ben Roethlisberger's return - he has just 4 catches through 2 Big Ben-less games. The Steelers spun the wheel and came up with Charlie Batch at QB this week, and the Bucs' defenders haven't been pushovers this year.

Last week's picks

- Vince Young's stat line against the Steelers: 7-for-10, 66 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, one benching. Nailed it.

- Michael Crabtree's stat line against the Saints: One catch for 32 yards. Nailed it.

- Jahvid Best's stat line against the Eagles: 78 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards, 3 total TDs. Little off. I still stand by my prediction - the kid ran for 20 yards on 14 carries a week earlier in his debut! - but clearly I underestimated him.


The Associated Press

Week 1 Recap, Part II: Kolb toast?

- So much for Kevin Kolb’s big debut as the official Eagles starting QB (5-for-10, 25 yards, concussion). I’m not ready to declare him a fantasy bust, but hopefully you already recognized the risks with a largely untested QB and have a capable backup ready. If not, it might be time to look Michael Vick’s way.

- Running to the waiver wire to get Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis? Not so fast. Sure, he had two catches, both for TDs. But this is also the same guy whose career high for TDs in a season is two, and who didn’t catch more than 4 passes in a game last year. Maybe he’s worth a grab, but temper your expectations.

- Sam Bradford sure aired it out in his first pro game (55 attempts). But he connected on just 32 of those (4.6 yards per completion), threw 1 TD and 3 picks, and finished with a 53.1 QB rating. He’s not a fantasy option at this point.

- Good luck making sense of the Seahawks’ backfield rotation. Justin Forsett was the most impressive (7 carries for 43 yards, 6.1 average), but Julius Jones and Leon Washington each had 1 more carry apiece. You’ll want to avoid this situation until it gets a little less murky.

- Remember all the hullabaloo about Redskins TE Fred Davis being a fantasy sleeper this year? Davis wasn't even targeted on Sunday night, but starter Chris Cooley caught 6 passes for 80 yards to lead all Skins receivers. Cooley could be in line for a big year if he stays healthy and the synergy with Donovan McNabb continues.

- OK, maybe LaDainian Tomlinson's got some fantasy life left in him (11 carries, 62 yards). But you have to figure Shonn Greene can't be that miserable again (5 carries, 18 yards, a fumble, a dropped pass and a second-half benching). That wasn't how Gang Green drew it up.

- Legedu Naanee had the nicer stat line Monday among Chargers WRs (5 catches, 110 yards, TD), but it was actually Malcom Floyd (3-48) that was targeted a team-high 12 times to Naanee's eight, including three of San Diego's four shots at the end zone on a 1st-and-goal series to end the game. Read into that what you will.

- Saints RB Pierre Thomas might have tough sledding against the 49ers' D this week, but it was good to see him get the lion's share of the carries (19 of the team's 25 rush attempts) as New Orleans pounded the rock last Thursday against the Vikings. That equaled his season high from last year, which came in Week 4.


Photo by The Associated Press

8/4 Sleeper of the Day: Ryan Matthews

RB RYAN MATTHEWS, CHARGERS

Matthews may not be as flashy or as well known as fellow rookie RBs C.J. Spiller or Jahvid Best, but he’s stepping into an ideal situation in San Diego, at least for our purposes. The first-rounder from Fresno State will be a part of an explosive Chargers offense with a good offensive line, and with LaDainian Tomlinson out of the picture, his only competition for carries is the diminutive Darren Sproles.

Much of the country didn’t see Matthews tearing it up in the WAC last year, where he led the nation with 1,808 rushing yards (6.6 a carry, 150 a game) and scored 19 TDs on 276 carries. He’s proven himself as a workhorse, but he’s also got quite a burst (seven TD runs of 50 yards or more last year).

If all goes well, Matthews should surpass LT2’s 2009 stats, and while I have a hard time counting on a rookie as my No. 1 RB, he’ll make an excellent No. 2 with upside.

LT2 a Jet: What it means for you

Looks like LaDainian Tomlinson's not done yet.

LT2's landing in New York with the Jets is probably the best possible destination for the aging runner's fantasy value. He'll line up behind a veteran offensive line that could be the league's best at run-blocking (Gang Green led the league in team rushing in 2009). And he'll have a young buck in the backfied (Shonn Greene) who can do the heavy lifting but still isn't proven enough to totally wipe Tomlinson out of the picture. (It's also a disappointment for those who, like me, envisioned Greene as a big-time sleeper as a No. 1 back next year, but that's another story).

Tomlinson's no longer a No. 1 back, that much is certain. But as a change-of-pace guy who gets to touch the ball in the red zone, he could rack up quite a few TDs. Last year's numbers (700 yards, 12 TDs) are probably his absolute ceiling in 2010, but that still makes him an intriguing No. 2 fantasy RB and a defnite No. 3.

Let's not close the book on Tomlinson's career yet.

It's on for Shonn

Another day, another 30-something running back gets released.

This time it's Thomas Jones who'll be filing for unemployment, with the Jets set to cut the 31-year-old tailback.

The news comes just days after veterans LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook were cut by their respective clubs. Jones was more productive than either of those guys in 2009, running for 1,402 yards and 14 TDs, both career highs. And now he's looking for work.

But Jones' loss is Shonn Greene's gain. Greene served as Jones' backup in his rookie season and ran well, posting 504 yards (5.0 a carry) and 2 TDs and adding another 169 yards and a TD in two playoff games. Now he's in line to be the featured back behind an excellent offensive line that helped Gang Green lead the league in rushing in 2009. Yes, Greene will have some competition from the fiesty Leon Washington, who's set to return from a broken leg. But the NFL sophomore could put together a breakout season and deserves strong consideration as a fantasy No. 2 next year.

It's on for Shonn

Another day, another 30-something running back gets released.

This time it's Thomas Jones who'll be filing for unemployment, with the Jets set to cut the 31-year-old tailback.

The news comes just days after veterans LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook were cut by their respective clubs. Jones was more productive than either of those guys in 2009, running for 1,402 yards and 14 TDs, both career highs. And now he's looking for work.

But Jones' loss is Shonn Greene's gain. Greene served as Jones' backup in his rookie season and ran well, posting 504 yards (5.0 a carry) and 2 TDs and adding another 169 yards and a TD in two playoff games. Now he's in line to be the featured back behind an excellent offensive line that helped Gang Green lead the league in rushing in 2009. Yes, Greene will have some competition from the fiesty Leon Washington, who's set to return from a broken leg. But the NFL sophomore could put together a breakout season and deserves strong consideration as a fantasy No. 2 next year.

Tomlinson's last electric glide

The days of LaDainian Tomlinson as a fantasy stud and as a San Diego Charger are officially over.

The Bolts released LT2 (there can never be another LT) on Monday as widely expected. That's the unfortunately reality for a 30-year-old running back whose stats have been in decline. Tomlinson, for years a surefire No. 1 fantasy pick, averaged a pedestrian 3.3 yards a carry last year and didn't crack the 100-yard mark in a game, breaking the hearts of many fantasy players along the way. And just like that, the Chargers sent him packing.

I don't think LT2 is done just yet, as he's professed his wish to continue playing for a contender. Someone will give him a shot, and deservedly so, perhaps as part of a running back rotation or as a short-yardage back. He may even have some fantasy value next year, depending on where he lands and how they use him. But it will definitely be weird seeing him without a lightning bolt logo on his helmet - think Emmitt Smith in Cardinals red or Franco Harris in Seahawks silver. And it will certainly feel strange in fantasy circles when Tomlinson's name isn't called in the first round next year.

At least we'll always have the Electric Glide video.

Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

Best of the decade?

As we say goodbye to 2009, I'm seeing all kinds of all-decade lists popping up all over the place (Best movies? Best songs? Best TV themes?)

It got me thinking: Who were the best fantasy players of the 2000s? It'd be awfully hard to narrow it down to an all-decade team. For instance, Peyton Manning's probably the obvious choice at QB, but how do you deny Tom Brady's record-busting 2007 season? Or how do you narrow it down to 1 or 2 running backs - say, LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes - and leave out a Brian Westbrook or Adrian Peterson or Marshall Faulk?

Jay Clemons of SI.com actually figured out a better approach, ranking the top 10 fantasy seasons of the decade. Here's what they came up with in a nutshell:

1. Tom Brady, 2007
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006
3. Peyton Manning, 2004
4. Randy Moss, 2007
5. Shaun Alexander, 2005
6. Daunte Culpepper, 2004
7. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2003
8. Marvin Harrison, 2002
9. Tony Gonzalez, 2004
10. Drew Brees, 2008

A few things jump out at me:

- How does Holmes not make the list? It's easy to forget that near the start of the decade he was every bit as dominating as Tomlinson in his prime and single-handedly won many leagues in the early 2000s. A tight end makes the list and Priest doesn't?

- Brady may have had the single most impressive fantasy season of the '00s, but as SI points out, the rest of his career belongs simply in the "good" category, from a fantasy standpoint.

- It's almost unfathomable that Culpepper, who can't even stay on the field for the Detroit Lions nowadays, was once the game's best fantasy QB. I owned him in 2004, his incredible 39-TD season, and loved every minute of it. I also drafted him the following year, the start of his long downward career spiral, and still haven't forgiven him.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 12 recap

Random thoughts from Week 12 while waking up from a turkey-induced coma ...

- Raise your hand if you got screwed by a quarterback this week. Whether it was a last-minute scratch (Kurt Warner), an early game injury (Matt Ryan) or just plain ineffectiveness, (Eli Manning, Tom Brady) in big games, a bunch of owners saw their Week 12 hopes go down the tubes because of their QB.

- Chris Redman held his own subbing for Ryan (243 yards, 2 TDs) and might not actually a bad play this week against the Eagles with Matty Ice still on the shelf.

- One QB you can't knock: Drew Brees (371 yards, 5 TDs). The guy's making fantasy stars left and right. Even someone named Darnell Dinkins caught a TD pass for the Saints on Monday night. Wasn't he the mayor of New York City?

- Two more TDs from Laurence Maroney, plus a fumble for the third straight game. Don't even dream about sitting him.

- I didn't think I'd be saying it again this year, but Terrell Owens is fantasy relevant. I'm not sure if it was the switch to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB or interim coach Perry Fewell realizing "Hey, maybe we should throw the ball deep to T.O.," but Owens is once again getting it done (96 yards, TD for the second straight game. The only problem is this Thursday he's matched up against Darrelle Revis and the Jets, who bottled Owens up (3 catches, 13 yards) in their Week 6 meeting.

- I also didn't think Larry Johnson would be relevant again, either (22 carries, 107 yards for Cincinnati). Of course, it did come against the Browns, and Bernard Scott didn't do too bad either (18 carries, 87 yards). Plus, there's a decent chance starter Cedric Benson will be back this week against Detroit, so that may be LJ's last big output, at least for this season.

- Big day for budding star Justin Forsett (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TDs), but it sounds like the second-year back could return to his reserve role with the Seahawks this week if Julius Jones is healthy. It's still a name to know for 2010 and maybe keep on your bench if you have an extra spot.

- Please just go away, Jake Delhomme (14-for-34, 130 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs). I know Revis and the Jets secondary had a lot to do with it, but you're making Steve Smith (1 catch, 5 yards) absolutely worthless. I'm looking forward to seeing what Matt Moore can do if Delhomme (finger) sits against Tampa Bay this Sunday as expected.

- Two Chiefs skill players have become no-doubt fantasy starters, but instead of Johnson and Dwayne Bowe it's Jamaal Charles (147 total yards, TD) and Chris Chambers (7 catches, 70 yards, TD).

- I'm not convinced LaDainian Tomlinson is still what he once was (13 carries, 39 yards), but he did score two more TDs on Sunday. As long as the Chargers keep giving him carries inside the 5-yard line, we're all good.

Week 9 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while crafting a petition to the Bucs to wear their creamsicle uniforms every week ...


- Michael Turner topped 150 yards for the second straight game and extended his scoring streak to eight straight games (166, 2 TDs). He's looking like the top-3 back we thought he'd be.

- Turner's counterpart, Clinton Portis, was knocked out against Atlanta and is looking doubtful for what could have been a decent Week 10 matchup vs. Denver. Ladell Betts (15 carries, 70 yards, TD) wasn't bad in his stead and could soon be in a Hot Pickups blog post near you.

- Who needs Anquan Boldin? The disgruntled and disappointing Cardinals WR was scratched because of a nagging ankle injury and the field conditions in Chicago (and he was none too pleased with how he was informed of the benching) ... and Kurt Warner still threw 5 TDs.

- Do Matt Forte's 6 catches for 74 yards make up for his 5 carries for 33 yards? I say no.

- Of course Greg Olsen would catch 3 TDs after I benched him at the last minute Saturday night and subbed in Heath Miller (3 catches, 18 yards).

- I gotta give it to Cedric Benson for proving me wrong so far. He's exceeded all my expectations in Cincinnati (117 more yards and a TD vs. Baltimore) and has become a must-start, even Week 10 against Pittsburgh and beyond.

- Laurence Maroney got his biggest workload of the season (20 carries) and scored for the third straight week. Is he finally a dependable fantasy starter? I'd give him a serious look for this week's showdown with Indy.

- The Packers' James Jones now has 3 receiving TDs this year, or 1 more than teammate Greg Jennings. That ain't right.

- Do we have a new fantasy star in Bucs QB Josh Freeman (14-for-31, 205 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT)? Anything's possible, but let's see what happens after the rest of the league gets some actual film on him. Encouraging start, though.

- So Chris Chambers gets released by San Diego last week, picked up by the awful Chiefs this week, plays his first game for K.C. on Sunday and has his most productive day (70 yards, 2 TDs) since Week 2 of last year. Go figure.

- Twelve carries, 22 yards for LaDainian Tomlinson. How the mighty have fallen. Last time he played the Giants, in 2005, he busted them for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Those were the days.

- Alex Smith sure does love him some Vernon Davis (10 catches, 102 yards, both career highs).

Start 'Em: Week 8

-RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON vs. Oakland: LT2's looked like a shell of his former self as many (including yours truly) predicted in the preseason. He can't seem to get the tough yards anymore and hasn't cracked 71 in a game yet. Some of that has to do with his offensive line, of course, but here's betting they can get things going against an imploding Raiders team and Tomlinson busts through for at least a TD and his best rushing output to date in 2009.

-TE JEREMY SHOCKEY vs. Atlanta: The Shockster has caught at least 4 passes in every game so far and is coming off his best game, yardage-wise (105) so far this year. Now he faces a Falcons D that's been victimized by Jason Witten (5 for 53), Greg Olsen (5 for 57, TD), Vernon Davis (5 for 51), Chris Baker (2 for 42, TD) and Dante Rosario (3 for 31, TD) this year.

-QB DAVID GARRARD at Tennessee: Garrard had his best game of the season in Week 4 against the Titans (323 yards, 3 TDs), and Jeff Fisher's defense has yet to show any ability to stop an aerial attack.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Frank Gore ran for a pitiful 32 yards on 13 carries against the Texans in his first game back from injury. Huge disappointment.

- Donald Brown was on his way to a great day (2 carries for 58 yards) in a rout of the Rams before hurting his shoulder. Tough break.

- Steve Breaston was another huge letdown (1 catch for 23 yards). Anquan Boldin did end up suiting up against the Giants and hauled in 3 passes for 75 yards, which hurt Breaston's production a bit, but it's still no excuse.

Photo by The Associated Press

9/1 Bust of the Day: LaDainian Tomlinson

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS



I know, it's almost sacrilege to associate the great LT2's name with the term "bust." He's been so great for so long, the consensus pick as fantasy's best player for several years now ... but 2008 was a struggle for the San Diego Chargers' superback, the first real adversity he's had to face in his Hall of Fame-caliber career. The numbers were still fine - 1,110 rushing yards, 426 receiving yards, 12 total TDs - but that was still a career low for yards on the ground, and his fewest trips to the end zone since his rookie year.

If Tomlinson duplicates last year's numbers, he's a top-10 back. But here's the problem: I think those stats now represent his ceiling, not his floor. In other words, he has to stay healthy all year - which he didn't do last year - to reach those stats. And I'm not sure I'm willing to take that risk with a 30-year-old back with so much mileage on his legs. I'm not taking him in the upper half of the first round. I'd consider him at the end of the first and I'd most likely grab him if he fell into the second - but I have a feeling he'll be taken before then in a lot of drafts just based on reputation alone. And if that's the case I'm afraid he'll disappoint - which would make him a bust in 2009.

Mock draft podcast

I took part in a mock draft last week with some of my co-workers at the Bradenton Herald as part of our 2009 fantasy football preview, and we recorded it in a podcast for your listening pleasure:



You can spend hours reading magazines and making lists as you prepare for your season, but it's not easy to predict how others in your league will approach the draft and what strategies will unfold. Hopefully our podcast, featuring myself and five other self-proclaimed fantasy nuts, will offer some insight into how the first round might unfold. Some interesting tidbits we saw in our mock draft: Two QBs and two WRs made the top 10 and LaDainian Tomlinson and DeAngelo Williams didn't.

Worried about Peterson, Moss, others?

Week 4 is the perfect time to take stock of your fantasy team and figure out which direction it’s headed.

By now we’ve got a good idea of which NFL offenses look like powerhouses and which are just plain offensive. We’ve seen how certain running back timeshares will operate, which quarterbacks’ jobs are in jeopardy, whose surgically repaired body parts are holding up and whose legs have too many miles on them.

Also, with six NFL teams enjoying a bye week, the depth of fantasy rosters will be tested. It’s time to examine your squad with a critical eye and see where you stand. Some players will hold up to the scrutiny despite some early season question marks and injury concerns, while others are in serious danger.

Here are some notable guys I’m not too worried about, and some who deserve a red flag:

NO PROBLEMS HERE

LaDainian Tomlinson: His toe may be bothering him, but Tomlinson still rushed two touchdowns Monday night. That’s why I’d never sit LT – as long as he can stand on two feet, the San Diego Chargers will continue to feed him meaningful touches, no matter how good backup Darren Sproles looks.

Adrian Peterson: Even with a sore hamstring and the possibility he might sit out last Sunday, Peterson still started and gutted out a tough 17 carries for 77 yards against a good Carolina Panthers defense. Things get no easier this week against the Tennessee Titans, but Peterson is simply too dangerous and too valuable a fantasy commodity to leave on your bench if he’s active.

Brian Westbrook: He’s listed as day to day with an ankle sprain, but worse injuries than that haven’t stopped this tough little S.O.B. Westbrook is the most dangerous player in fantasy football and can never be benched unless he’s officially ruled out. Grab Correll Buckhalter or Lorenzo Booker as insurance if you feel compelled, but expect to see a Westbrook touchdown or two Sunday night in Chicago.

Brett Favre: The veteran QB’s numbers have been acceptable as a low-end fantasy No. 1 to this point (six TDs vs. three INTs) even as he’s learning on the fly with the New York Jets. Expect him to soar in the coming weeks (vs. Arizona, Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City).

PROCEED WITH CAUTION

Steven Jackson: From last season’s struggles to his holdout during camp, we had enough worries about Jackson entering the season. So far he and the miserable St. Louis Rams have done nothing to quell our fears, and the switch to QB Trent Green doesn’t help. This situation’s a mess.

Roy Williams: If the Detroit Lions can’t figure out Williams needs to get more than three targets a game, there’s no hope for them. With frustration mounting, Mike Martz gone and Calvin Johnson taking on a bigger role, I’m officially worried about our boy Roy.

Randy Moss: From Moss’ perspective, QB Matt Cassel looks a lot more like Andrew Walter than Tom Brady so far. Might it be that Moss is only as good as the quarterback throwing to him? If true, it could be a long year.

Braylon Edwards: We know his shoulder’s bothering him, but Edwards better start pulling down some catches starting this Sunday at Cincinnati, or he’s going to cost QB Derek Anderson and maybe coach Romeo Crennel their jobs. He’s got a long way to go in proving he’s a fantasy No. 1

Photos by The Associated Press.

It's never too early ...

... to start planning for your 2007 football draft. I've put together an extremely early top-10 list. Keep in mind a lot can change (new coaching staffs, injuries, free agency, the draft) between now and August, but here's some help if you're in a keeper league, want to get a jump on the competition or, like me, have too much free time:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Pretty big no-brainer, right? It'd be foolish to expect another record-breaking season from our boy LT2 ... but I wouldn't put it past him either. The only worry I'd have is if he lands on the cover of Madden 2008, so start pulling hard for Drew Brees to make it.

2. Larry Johnson
If it wasn't for LT2's sick year we'd all be talking about LJ. Sure, Herm Edwards basically ran him into the ground, but his knees should be young enough to take some more abuse, and it's nice to know the head coach isn't shy about giving him the ball. If the Chiefs upgrade at QB and/or WR (and after that atrocious playoff performance, they desperately need to) it will only help Johnson next year.

3. Steven Jackson
Jackson only got stronger as the year wore on, establishing himself as a complete player and a bona fide fantasy stud. His game took a massive leap under new coach Scott Linehan, and at this rate, the 23-year-old will soon be putting up Marshall Faulk-type numbers.

4. Frank Gore
Gore is another well-rounded back who set a 49ers season rushing record last year with more than 1,600 yards but who also contributes in the passing game. And just like Gore, the Niners are a team on the rise, with a boatload of spending money (they'll be an estimated $40 million under next year's salary cap), a bunch of extra draft picks and an improving young QB in Alex Smith. These factors can only help Gore post a great season in '07.

5. Shaun Alexander
I know it was a down year for the big guy, due in large part to the infamous cracked bone in his foot. But even before the injury, he didn't quite look like his MVP self from a year earlier. I'm willing to chalk it up to a bad combination of the Madden Curse, a post-Super Bowl letdown for the Seahawks and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency. Alexander showed glimpses of his past domination late in the year, and although he'll be 30 next season I still think there's a lot of production left in him.

6. Peyton Manning
I'm slotting Peyton in the middle of this list, but his true positioning depends on the type of scoring in your league. Move him up or down depending on how important QBs are in your scoring system, but know this: Manning is the most consistent player at his position and virtually the only lock among fantasy QBs from year to year.

7. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook's always been a tantalizing talent, mostly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. But this year he's also proven himself as a workhorse runner, and except for a brief scare with his knee early in the year, he was surprisingly healthy, too. Before 2006, he'd only twice carried more than 20 times in a game (both times cracking the 100-yard rushing barrier). This year he's had five 20-carry games (including last week's playoff win against the Giants), and each time he rushed for 100 or more. If the Eagles continue to be a balanced offensive team with coordinator Marty Morningweg calling the plays, and if Westbrook's knees remain intact, he can have a stellar 2007.

8. Willie Parker
Fast Willie's gone from no-name to Pro Bowler in two short years. He was severly underrated entering this season, his first as a full-time feature back, but he shut everyone up with a huge year that included two 200-yard games, nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and 13 TDs (even more astonishing when you consider he also had five fumbles on the goal line). It remains to be seen how the Stillers offense will operate under a new coaching regime, but a best-case scenario for Parker and his owners would be if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt stays on with Pittsburgh either in that capacity or as head coach.

9. Maurice Jones-Drew
This is a little bit of a reach right now, but I'm slotting the little guy in here based on potential. You saw what he's capable of, and that was without carrying the full load. If the Jaguars decide to cut Fred Taylor this offseason, the sky's the limit for the man they call "Pinball."

10. Rudi Johnson
Although his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time since becoming a starter, RJ scored 12 TDs for the third straight year. If there's one thing fantasy owners love, it's consistency. With Carson Palmer more than a year removed from that ghastly knee injury, the Bengals' offense should be another high-scoring unit, giving Johnson lots of opportunities and making him a safe fantasy pick. Of course, all of this gets thrown out of the window if he gets arrested in an effort to fit in with his teammates.

OTHERS TO WATCH: Joseph Addai could start approaching Edgerrin James territory as the Colts continue to phase out Dominic Rhodes. ... It might be a year late, but Ronnie Brown could have that breakout season we were all expecting in '06. He looked good after coming back from that hand injury, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding his team (new coach, instability at QB, plus the impending second return of Ricky Williams) ... Clinton Portis' value is a little hard to peg right now, given the injuries and emergence of Ladell Betts. I could see him doing anything from reclaiming the sole starting job and being a top-five back, entering the most annoying platoon ever, or maybe even getting traded. ... Palmer is the next best thing after Manning as far as QBs are concerned. I know Drew Brees gained a lot of believers out there, but Palmer has a slightly higher ceiling. ...

WEEK 6 - Sunday Recap

-Torry Holt is the bomb. Fantasy's most reliable WR added 154 receiving yards and three TDs to his resume. Unfotunately it wasn't enough to save the Rams from a Josh Brown FG and a Seattle victory.

-Despite three-TD efforts from Holt against the Seahawks and Terrell Owens against Houston, the fantasy game ball from Week 6 goes to the amazing LaDainian Tomlinson. Sure, he rushed for just 71 yards against San Fran, but he added another 64 through the air ... and oh yeah, he had FOUR FREAKIN TOUCHDOWNS on the ground, a personal best. If you've got LT2 on your team, you can never count yourself out.

-As for another stud RB ... Larry Johnson managed only 26 yards on the ground against Pittsburgh but salvaged a decent day with another TD. However, there wasn't much going on in the passing game this week (six receiving yards), and LJ faces a tough San Diego D next week. Hey, at least he's healthy.

-Tiki Barber had a big day (185 yards rushing, plus another 45 receiving), but it could have been a MONSTER day. He had a TD called back when it was ruled he stepped out of bounds on a replay, and the G-Men opted to go to Jeremy Shockey and vulture extraordinaire Brandon Jacobs on two goal-line possessions. I guess that's the trade-off for owning Tiki.

-Barber's counterpart, Atlanta's Warrick Dunn, wasn't looking so hot until he busted loose with a franchise-record, 90-yard scoring run. Trust me, if you had him in your lineup Sunday it was a thing of beauty.

-Hank Baskett, Week 5: three catches, 112 yards, TD. Hank Baskett, Week 6: zero catches, zero yards, zero TDs. That's why you don't just jump on a hot WR who comes out of nowhere to put up a big game, no matter how cool his name is.

-Baskett's QB, Donovan McNabb, continues to spread the ball around for Philly. This week it was Reggie Brown (six catches, 121 yards, TD) and L.J. Smith (four catches, 48 yards, TD) getting slices of the pie against New Orleans as Donte Stallworth was inactive (again) against his former team. Brian Westbrook compiled 72 yards on the ground but surprisingly was a non-factor in the passing game. Not waht we had in mind against the Saints' D. The good news for Westbrook owners is his knee is still intact for another week.

-There was also a Joe Horn sighting in New Orleans as he cracked the 100-yard receiving mark and scored a TD. It was the first time he had done either since Week 2 of last year (the infamous "home" game at Giants Stadium). Break out the cell phone!

-I was wrong about Kevin Jones this week. Really wrong. He had 127 yards and a score. This despite the Lions missing three-fifths of their starting OL against Buffalo. Jones was good. I still don't like the guy though ... and yeah, it's kind of personal. Ask another Penn State fan and you'll know why.

-Roy Williams looked just fine (161, TD) despite last week's neck stinger. Meanwhile, teammate Mike Williams has dropped behind dudes named Devale Ellis and Shaun Bodiford on the Lions' WR depth chart. The next stop is the practice squad. What happened to this guy?

-Laveranues Coles' two scores Sunday give him nine TDs in 10 career games against the Dolphins, and at least one TD in four straight against the Fins. The Jets are at Miami in Week 16. Circle your calendar.

-Kyle Boller threw three TD passes Sunday. Yup, THAT Kyle Boller. Steve McNair left after getting his bell rung, and Boller hit Mark Clayton twice (once on a tipped pass intended for Derrick Mason, who had no receptions by the way) and the ever-reliable Todd Heap once. The McNair injury doesn't appear serious right now, and he's got a bye next weekend to rest up, meaning Boller will probably be back on the bench.

-Carolina's DeShaun Foster didn't get much done (58 yards, fumble) with DeAngelo Williams out of the picture this week, but he was going against Baltimore. Plus, with Steve Smith (189 yards, TD) looking like his old self, Foster didn't have to do much. He did get 26 carries, however, and if Williams can't go again in Week 7, Foster's in line for a nice game against Cincinnati. Second-year man Eric Shelton (one yard on first NFL carry) is not a threat at this point, no matter what anyone tells you, Peter King included.

-Rookie Bruce Gradkowski worked his magic again. Bruce Almighty utilized talented TE Alex Smith again (second straight game with a TD), and he even hit Michael Clayton (yup, THAT Michael Clayton) for what proved to be the game-winning TD as the Bucs got their first W. Cadillac Williams even came close to 100 rushing yards. Jon Gruden has an even bigger man-crush on Gradkowski now. Does anyone else thing Chris Simms just got Wally Pipp-ed?

-Chad Johnson was pretty good for the Bengals (six catches 99 yards), but he still hasn't topped the century mark and has just one TD all year. His numbers this week were slanted by a 51-yard catch. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (10, 102, TD) has been getting all the love lately for Cincy.

-Julius Jones cracked 100 yards against Houston, but Marion Barber III stole another TD. Drats.

-I'm no John Madden, but I don't think it's a good thing when David Carr leads your team in rushing, and he rushes for 15 yards.

-Travis Henry (178 yards, TD) was a pleasant surprise for the second straight week. An even bigger surprise: the Titans beat the Redskins. Henry's got a good matchup against the Texans after this week's bye, so hang on to him for now. Things get considerably tougher after that, though.

-That means there's only one winless team left in the NFL ... Surprise, it's Oakland. Checking in on the only two Raiders worth owning: Randy Moss had arguably his best game this year (five for 82) but didn't score. I wouldn't mind playing him against Arizona next week. As for LaMont Jordan, he was predictably mediocre, gaining 60 yards on 23 carries and fumbling against a fired-up Denver defense. At least Justin Fargas won't be stealing carries for the time being, as he left the game after injuring his arm and had it in a sling.

-Deion Branch had the game we've been waiting for, finding the end zone twice. He's got a sweet schedule coming up and will see more action with Bobby Engram battling a thyroid condition. ... Meanwhile, Seattle TE Jerramy Stevens (knee) was supposed to play for the first time this year but didn't suit up. He's still worth grabbing if he's available, but you'll have to play it by ear.

-San Francisco's Alex Smith did manage two TD passes to two different receivers Sunday against San Diego. Their names? Bryan Gilmore and Moran Norris. Those aren't misprints.


-As always, if you have any fantasy questions, want advice on trades or just need to vent, you can e-mail me at jbartolone@semosportsweb.com or post a message right here at the end of this blog.