Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

Week 15 recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while savoring my first playoff victory in a few years (yes!) ...

- Just when we thought Jerome Harrison had been overtaken by Chris Jennings in the pecking order of Browns running backs, Harrison goes and busts out one of the greatest rushing performances the game's ever seen - 34 carries, 286 yards, 3 TDs against Kansas City. The shame of it is the chances of anyone actually starting Harrison in Week 15 are slim to none (let me know if you did). Harrison becomes perhaps the most unlikely must-start we've ever seen this week against Oakland. You'll also want Cedric Benson (and maybe even Larry Johnson as a flex) in your lineup against a downtrodden Chiefs D.

- DeAngelo Williams' early-game ankle injury was a killer, especially because Jonathan Stewart was able to rack up 109 yards and a TD on the ground against a tough Vikings D. We may have seen the last of Williams for this year, which at least would clear the way for Stewart

- Thank you, Roy Williams for the 1 catch and 14 yards in a critical week. Miles Austin was targeted a whopping 10 times more than our boy Roy.

- Hopefully you weren't scared off by all the "Randy Moss is a quitter" talk and benefited from his 5 catches, 70 yards and a TD on Sunday. The next two weeks against Jacksonville and Houston are looking very appealing for Mr. Moss.

- Beanie Wells is coming into his own at just the right time. He had his best day as a pro (110 yards, TD), and I'm expecting an encore against St. Louis.

- No TDs for Chris Johnson - what's up with that??? It's gotten to the point that 159 total yards is just not enough from this guy.

- Vincent Jackson picked the perfect time to shine (108 yards, 2 TDs) - the first time he's scored since Week 9. He could do some more damage on Christmas night against a Titans secondary that was getting torched with regularity not that long ago.

- Steven Jackson continued playing hurt, leading the team in rushing (82 yards) and receiving (41 yards), but I fear it's going to catch up to him against a Cardinals D that's typically pretty good at bottling up the run. It doesn't help that the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of.

- It will be tempting to start Michael Turner against the Bills' porous defense, but how can you insert him in your lineup in good conscience after Sunday's 1-carry, 7-yard disaster against the Jets?

- The Raiders decided to hand the ball off to Michael Bush 18 times on Sunday against Denver, and he rewarded them with 133 yards and a TD. That's surprising, not because Bush doesn't have the talent (he does), but because he had gotten only 22 carries in the past 5 games combined. Bush could repeat that feat or better it against the Browns if he gets a similar workload.

- DeSean Jackson continued his torrid play (6 catches, 140 yards, TD) and should be a staple of fantasy lineups at this point.

- That's the Aaron Rodgers we know and love (26-for-48, 383 yards, 3 TDs). Now do it again this week against the Seahawks, buddy.

- Speaking of the Seahawks, John Carlson caught his second TD in as many games and could do it again this week vs. Green Bay, if you trust a guy whose QB is Matt Hasselbeck (1 TD, 4 INTs, 45.2 passer rating Sunday).

- And speaking of tight ends, Todd Heap caught two TDs, his first trips to the end zone since Week 2. He's still a part of the Ravens' passing attack, so don't forget about him in Week 16.

Start 'Em: Week 7

- RB FRANK GORE at Houston: We've missed Frankie a lot - remember the 207 yards and 2 TDs he dropped on the Seahawks in Week 2? Well, he's now back from an ankle injury and ready to roll over the Texans. Don't hesitate to use him, espeically on this six-team bye week.

- RB DONALD BROWN at St. Louis: The Colts rookie has averaged 10 total touches a game this season. That should be enough work to do some damage against the Rams' 30th-ranked defense.

- WR STEVE BREASTON at N.Y. Giants: Breaston's always a decent flex option because he gets at least 4-5 targets a game in the Cardinals' pass-first offense. This week he could be more than that with No. 2 wideout Anquan Boldin nursing a high ankle sprain and the Giants' secondary still reeling from last week's spanking by the Saints.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Thomas Jones rumbled for 220 yards on 22 carries (a Jets single-season rushing record) and a TD against the Bills. Patting myself on the back for that one.

- Jonathan Stewart had his best game of the season (17 carries, 110 yards, TD) against the Bucs, and now he faces the aforementioned Bills D. Play on, playa.

- Jermichael Finley had an OK showing against Detroit (5 catches, 54 yards) and should be at least decent again this week vs. Cleveland.

Start 'Em: Week 6

-RB THOMAS JONES vs. Buffalo: Sure, TJ hasn't cracked 100 yards rushing since Week 1, and he's averaging 3.7 yards a carry. However, he's got 3 TDs in the past two weeks, and Buffalo's defense is ranked 29th against the run.

-RB JONATHAN STEWART at Tampa Bay: Stewart finally came to life last week - his 10 carries were his most since Week 1, and he scored his first TD of the season. Maybe he's finally healthy and ready to make a serious contribution. The Bucs should help him in that cause.

-TE JERMICHAEL FINLEY vs. Detroit: We knew Finley had the size and the talent to be a fantasy force, but last Sunday's 6-catch, 128-yard, 1-TD showing against Minnesota officially signaled his breakout. Hopefully he'll have some more balls coming his way in the next four weeks against the Lions, Browns, Vikings (again) and Bucs.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

-Tony Romo threw for 351 yards and two late TDs, including the OT game-winner to Miles Austin, against the Chiefs.

-Tim Hightower saw only 6 carries for 17 yards, but one of them was a 1-yard TD run. He also caught 5 passes for 30 yards, if that excites you.

-Seven catches, 85 yards and a TD for Hines Ward against Detroit. Money.

8/28 Bust of the Day: DeAngelo Williams

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, CAROLINA PANTHERS

Can the unquestioned 2008 Fantasy MVP possibly be a bust in 2009? Depends on how you define bust ...



In my eyes, a bust is any player who doesn't live up to common expectations set for him, and by that criteria, Williams is bound to be one. The man scored 20 total TDs last year, after being an afterthought in most drafts and no better than a third RB on most teams to start the year. This season, he'll cost you a small fortune in an auction or a first-round pick in a regular draft. And if you're paying that kind of price, you're expecting Williams to come close to last year's numbers.

But can he? Remember, Williams' stats were padded just a bit by two 4-TD games last year, plus two games in which he rushed for more than 170 yards. He also cracked the 100-yard mark only once in his first seven games last year - which makes his second-half production that much more remarkable.

The problem with Williams is his backup, Jonathan Stewart, who is better-suited for goal-line duty and who will be part of a clear timeshare as soon as his nagging Achilles' injury heals. The Panthers should again boast the most run-heavy offense in the league, which means there will be plenty of carries for both Williams and Stewart. But frankly, I feel like Williams got a little lucky last year, and I believe his stats are bound to level off a little bit as Stewart takes on more respnosibility. I wouldn't be shocked to see Williams' TD total get cut in half this year and his yardage total dip down toward the 1,200- to 1,300-yard range. Those are impressive numbers, no doubt, but there are several other backs capable of duplicating them while not surrendering that many carries to a backup.

I penciled in Williams at No. 8 on my RB rankings, which makes him a late first-round/early second-round choice. Taking him any higher may leave you a bit disappointed if he's simply good and not great in 2009.

Photo by The Associated Press