Week 1 Sit 'Em: Owens, Mason, Jackson

- TERRELL OWENS at Patriots: T.O. hasn't fared well historically against New England. In four career meetings with the Pats he's averaged just 48 yards a game, his third fewest against any opponent - and he's played 'em all. Sure, this year's Pats' secondary is largely untested, and the Bengals will probably want to feed T.O. enough passes to keep him happy, but I just have a hard time believing he'll be a consistent performer anymore. I'm not getting any popcorn ready this week.

- DERRICK MASON at Jets: T.J. Houshmandzadeh's arrival in Baltimore is bad news for Mason. Now Ravens QB Joe Flacco has two aging possession receivers to choose from. There's a decent chance they'll consistently cancel each other out for fantasy purposes, and that's not even mentioning the arrival of big-ticket WR import Anquan Boldin. Mason has gone from undervalued fantasy commodity to a risky play. Factor in the possibility of Mason spending some time on Revis Island this weekend, and he has to stay on your bench until further notice.

- FRED JACKSON vs. Dolphins: I happen to like Freddie Jax a lot, but this isn't the week to use him. Not with Jackson still nursing a broken hand that cost him a month of the preseason and with rookie C.J. Spiller being named the starter. Jackson might have some fantasy value this year, but this isn't the week.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/23 Bust of the Day: Larry Fitzgerald

WR LARRY FITZGERALD, Cardinals

I don't doubt Fitzgerald's talent. I'm not saying he won't be a No. 1 fantasy wideout this season. But to quote just about every character in the Star Wars movies, I have a bad feeling about this.

Maybe it's the fact Matt Leinart is taking over the reins as Cards QB from the prolific Kurt Warner. Maybe it's the sprained right knee Fitzgerald's already dealing with this preseason. Maybe it's the residue of the Madden Curse that never really struck him last year (but cost co-cover boy Troy Polamalu most of his season). You know what they say about karma ...

But seriously, there are plenty of reasons to worry about Fitzgerald this year. He's not going to have Anquan Boldin around anymore to put pressure on opposing secondaries. And you may remember Fitzgerald's last subpar season (946 yards, 6 TDs in 13 games in 2006) just happened to be the year Arizona was trying to break in Leinart as their starting QB. Now, Leinart is a better QB today then he was as a rookie (presumably) - but can he replace Warner's production? Will more targets come Fitzgerald's way with Boldin out of the picture, or will Arizona just lean more heavily on Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the running game?

That's an awful lot of question marks for a WR who I've seen go in the first round in some mock drafts. I still don't have a problem making Fitzgerald my No. 1 WR ... but I'm not sure I'd take him over Andre Johnson or Randy Moss, or even Calvin Johnson. I'm labeling him a bust because I don't think he's the shoe-in for 1,300 yards or double-digit TDs many are tabbing him to be.

A Bold move by Baltimore

The Baltimore Ravens pride themselves on being a tough, physical bunch.

They've also lacked a playmaking wide receiver for what seems like a decade.

That's why their trade for WR Anquan Boldin makes a whole lot of sense.

Boldin is one tough cookie (see video - he had to have his jaw wired shut after that hit but was back on the field in 4 weeks) and a tremendous playmaker, evidenced by his five 1,000-yard seasons in his seven-year pro career.

The move to the Ravens from Arizona's wide-open offensive attack won't change Boldin's fantasy value much - he's still a dependable No. 2 WR. But his change of address - along with Baltimore's signing of deep threat/manslaughterer Donte' Stallworth - makes Joe Flacco a legit fantasy QB.

As for Arizona, there's probably more double-coverages headed Larry Fitzgerald's way and a potential for former No. 3 WR Steve Breaston to step up - assuming they can find someone to play quarterback.

Week 9 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while crafting a petition to the Bucs to wear their creamsicle uniforms every week ...


- Michael Turner topped 150 yards for the second straight game and extended his scoring streak to eight straight games (166, 2 TDs). He's looking like the top-3 back we thought he'd be.

- Turner's counterpart, Clinton Portis, was knocked out against Atlanta and is looking doubtful for what could have been a decent Week 10 matchup vs. Denver. Ladell Betts (15 carries, 70 yards, TD) wasn't bad in his stead and could soon be in a Hot Pickups blog post near you.

- Who needs Anquan Boldin? The disgruntled and disappointing Cardinals WR was scratched because of a nagging ankle injury and the field conditions in Chicago (and he was none too pleased with how he was informed of the benching) ... and Kurt Warner still threw 5 TDs.

- Do Matt Forte's 6 catches for 74 yards make up for his 5 carries for 33 yards? I say no.

- Of course Greg Olsen would catch 3 TDs after I benched him at the last minute Saturday night and subbed in Heath Miller (3 catches, 18 yards).

- I gotta give it to Cedric Benson for proving me wrong so far. He's exceeded all my expectations in Cincinnati (117 more yards and a TD vs. Baltimore) and has become a must-start, even Week 10 against Pittsburgh and beyond.

- Laurence Maroney got his biggest workload of the season (20 carries) and scored for the third straight week. Is he finally a dependable fantasy starter? I'd give him a serious look for this week's showdown with Indy.

- The Packers' James Jones now has 3 receiving TDs this year, or 1 more than teammate Greg Jennings. That ain't right.

- Do we have a new fantasy star in Bucs QB Josh Freeman (14-for-31, 205 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT)? Anything's possible, but let's see what happens after the rest of the league gets some actual film on him. Encouraging start, though.

- So Chris Chambers gets released by San Diego last week, picked up by the awful Chiefs this week, plays his first game for K.C. on Sunday and has his most productive day (70 yards, 2 TDs) since Week 2 of last year. Go figure.

- Twelve carries, 22 yards for LaDainian Tomlinson. How the mighty have fallen. Last time he played the Giants, in 2005, he busted them for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Those were the days.

- Alex Smith sure does love him some Vernon Davis (10 catches, 102 yards, both career highs).

Start 'Em: Week 8

-RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON vs. Oakland: LT2's looked like a shell of his former self as many (including yours truly) predicted in the preseason. He can't seem to get the tough yards anymore and hasn't cracked 71 in a game yet. Some of that has to do with his offensive line, of course, but here's betting they can get things going against an imploding Raiders team and Tomlinson busts through for at least a TD and his best rushing output to date in 2009.

-TE JEREMY SHOCKEY vs. Atlanta: The Shockster has caught at least 4 passes in every game so far and is coming off his best game, yardage-wise (105) so far this year. Now he faces a Falcons D that's been victimized by Jason Witten (5 for 53), Greg Olsen (5 for 57, TD), Vernon Davis (5 for 51), Chris Baker (2 for 42, TD) and Dante Rosario (3 for 31, TD) this year.

-QB DAVID GARRARD at Tennessee: Garrard had his best game of the season in Week 4 against the Titans (323 yards, 3 TDs), and Jeff Fisher's defense has yet to show any ability to stop an aerial attack.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Frank Gore ran for a pitiful 32 yards on 13 carries against the Texans in his first game back from injury. Huge disappointment.

- Donald Brown was on his way to a great day (2 carries for 58 yards) in a rout of the Rams before hurting his shoulder. Tough break.

- Steve Breaston was another huge letdown (1 catch for 23 yards). Anquan Boldin did end up suiting up against the Giants and hauled in 3 passes for 75 yards, which hurt Breaston's production a bit, but it's still no excuse.

Photo by The Associated Press

Start 'Em: Week 7

- RB FRANK GORE at Houston: We've missed Frankie a lot - remember the 207 yards and 2 TDs he dropped on the Seahawks in Week 2? Well, he's now back from an ankle injury and ready to roll over the Texans. Don't hesitate to use him, espeically on this six-team bye week.

- RB DONALD BROWN at St. Louis: The Colts rookie has averaged 10 total touches a game this season. That should be enough work to do some damage against the Rams' 30th-ranked defense.

- WR STEVE BREASTON at N.Y. Giants: Breaston's always a decent flex option because he gets at least 4-5 targets a game in the Cardinals' pass-first offense. This week he could be more than that with No. 2 wideout Anquan Boldin nursing a high ankle sprain and the Giants' secondary still reeling from last week's spanking by the Saints.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Thomas Jones rumbled for 220 yards on 22 carries (a Jets single-season rushing record) and a TD against the Bills. Patting myself on the back for that one.

- Jonathan Stewart had his best game of the season (17 carries, 110 yards, TD) against the Bucs, and now he faces the aforementioned Bills D. Play on, playa.

- Jermichael Finley had an OK showing against Detroit (5 catches, 54 yards) and should be at least decent again this week vs. Cleveland.

When stars refuse to shine

I know a bunch of people are bummed by their first- or second-round pick's performance in Week 1. I'm talking about guys like:

Chris Johnson (57 yards, 0 TDs)

Michael Turner (65 yards, 0 TDs)

Matt Forte (55 yards, 0 TDs)

Steve Smith (21 yards, 0 TDs)

Andre Johnson (35 yards, 0 TDs)

Steve Slaton (17 yards, 0 TDs)

Clinton Portis (62 yards, 0 TDs)

Brandon Jacobs (46 yards, 0 TDs)

Anquan Boldin (19 yards, 0 TDs)

and

Steven Jackson (67 yards, 0 TDs)

Those performances were all tough to swallow. But one of the worst mistakes you can make is to overreact to one game. There were reasons for all of those disappointments , from tough matchups (C. Johnson vs. Pittsburgh, Portis vs. the Giants, Slaton and A. Johnson vs. the Jets) to lingering injuries (Boldin) to poor offensive gameplans (Forte) to awful QB play (Smith). But you were willing to spend a high pick and build your team around all of those guys a week ago, so there's no need to go flipping out and totally writing off the season. All of those players are still studs and will serve you well in the weeks ahead.

8/27 Bust of the Day: Kurt Warner

QB KURT WARNER, ARIZONA CARDINALS

I know, I know. He threw for 30 TDs last year and he's got the league's best WR tandem in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He's a top-five fantasy QB according to most fantasy pundits. But not me.

I put Warner at No. 6, and here's why: He's 38 years old, he had offseason hip surgery, and he's tanked before, due to both injury and poor play. A recent report by ESPN’s John Clayton said Warner’s surgically repaired left hip “hurts only when he stands or walks.” So does my grandfather's, and I'm not picking him for my fantasy team.

I don't hate Warner. I think he could have another good year and help out your fantasy team. But I'm a little wary of spending a high pick on him - I've seen him go as high as the fourth round - when I might be able to wait another round and get a younger, healthier guy like Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers, both of whom I think will outperform everyone's favorite former grocery bagger. If that hip still bothers Warner this year, or he and the Cards suffer the same letdown as other recent Super Bowl runners-up, or Warner's deal with the devil simply runs out (again) and he reverts back to the same mistake-prone, aging QB who lost his job in St. Louis and New York - well, I don't really want my fantasy team's success hinging on that.

Leave your fantasy prejudices behind

There’s no room for bias or prejudice in fantasy sports.

As much as I personally loathe the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook have been very, very good to my fantasy teams over the years. And as loyal as I am to the New York Giants as a third-generation fan, I realize Eli Manning isn’t always the wisest fantasy choice (although he’s been pretty good so far for the 8-1 G-Men).

Biases and prejudices in fantasy don’t just extend to your favorite football team and its rivals. Sometimes we hold onto unfair opinions about individual players and teams, even when they run contrary to the facts.

Case in point: Kurt Warner. The knock on him for years is that he’s old, injury prone, fumble prone, and his best years were a product of Mike Martz’s system in St. Louis. Maybe there’s some truth to that, and that’s why Warner was passed over on draft day for a multitude of other quarterbacks, including teammate Matt Leinart, who is younger and more party prone.





But if you’ve seen Warner’s Arizona Cardinals play this year or checked the stat sheet, you’d see they are fourth in the league in pass attempts a game (342) but 20th in sacks allowed (16), a formula that has allowed Warner to stay upright, utilize his talented receiving corps and put together an MVP-caliber performance.



Letting go of your preconceived notions and trusting Warner as your every-week starter would be a wise move. And while you’re at it, here are some other old prejudices that need to be erased:

g Any QB would look good throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.

Still not sold on Warner, huh? Having Boldin and Fitzgerald certainly helps, but he’s also made third receiver Steve Breaston (seven catches, 121 yards last week) a legit fantasy pickup and fourth receiver Jerheme Urban (18 catches, two TDs in his past six games) a deep sleeper. So there.

g The Atlanta Falcons stink.

That was the consensus entering this season, and it scared most of us away from anyone wearing black and red other than tailback Michael Turner. But while Turner’s been a stud, Matt Ryan and Roddy White have blossomed into one of the league’s deadliest pass-catch combos in Ryan’s rookie season. All three of those guys are must-starts at this point, particularly against the woeful Denver Broncos defense this week. Even backup running back Jerious Norwood (105 total yards, TD last week) is capable of busting a big play or two.

g The Kansas City Chiefs stink.

OK, maybe this one’s true. But that doesn’t mean quarterback Tyler Thigpen isn’t worth your time. Thigpen, who started the year as KC’s third quarterback, is coming off a three-TD performance against the San Diego Chargers and now faces a New Orleans Saints defense that’s susceptible to the pass. Thigpen has spread the ball around the Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley, plus he’ll have the services of Larry Johnson this week to help take the pressure off through the running game.