2010 RUNNING BACK RANKINGS
This year's top four are more or less no-brainers for me, but then you'll spot a few surprises. I have Frank Gore of the run-heavy 49ers, the rejuvenated Michael Turner and the always dangerous Steven Jackson in the next tier of runners. I do have my annual concerns about S-Jax, who still has a weak supporting cast around him.
Next up are a few feature backs I expect to see a ton of carries, Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Grant, and a surprise at No. 10, Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. The breakout star of the second half of 2009 is going a lot later than many of the other backs on this list. but I believe he has the talent to produce like a top-10 RB.
I have Arian Foster ranked higher than many other experts, but with the season-ending injury to Ben Tate and the Texans' glaring need for a feature back, I think the rookie has a real opportunity in 2010.
You may also be surprised to see Michael Bush ahead of Reggie Bush, and I don't know if that says more about how much I like Michael or how much I dislike Reggie this year. Either way, I think they're best suited to be No. 4 fantasy backs in most leagues. Move Reggie up a bit in PPR leagues, of course.
I'm pretty high on Ahmad Bradshaw this year because I like his talent, I believe he's healthy, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him outperform Brandon Jacobs this year for the Giants.
I don't believe the Cardinals will be stubborn enough to favor Tim Hightower over Beanie Wells for the majority of 2010, and I've ranked the two players accordingly.
Looking for a deep, deep sleeper? The camp reports haven't been great and he's battling a shoulder injury, but I'm a fan of Steelers rookie Jonathan Dwyer. It might take him a year, but I think he can evolve into a good goal-line back. Stay tuned.
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. Rashard Mendenhall
9. Ryan Grant
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Cedric Benson
12. DeAngelo Williams
13. Ryan Matthews
14. Shonn Greene
15. Beanie Wells
16. Knowshon Moreno
17. Pierre Thomas
18. Jonathan Stewart
19. Felix Jones
20. Ronnie Brown
21. LeSean McCoy
22. Joseph Addai
23. Arian Foster
24. Brandon Jacobs
25. Justin Forsett
26. Matt Forte
27. Ricky Williams
28. Jahvid Best
29. C.J. Spiller
30. Marion Barber
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Clinton Portis
34. Michael Bush
35. Reggie Bush
36. Donald Brown
37. Fred Jackson
38. Cadillac Williams
39. Thomas Jones
40. LaDainian Tomlinson
41. Darren Sproles
42. Darren McFadden
43. Montario Hardesty
44. Tim Hightower
45. Steve Slaton
46. Chester Taylor
47. Laurence Maroney
48. Willis McGahee
49. Correll Buckhalter
50. Kevin Smith
51. Anthony Dixon
52. Mike Bell
53. Fred Taylor
54. Rashad Jennings
55. Toby Gerhart
56. Larry Johnson
57. Tashard Choice
58. Bernard Scott
59. Leon Washington
60. Jonathan Dwyer
Showing posts with label Steven Jackson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steven Jackson. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Week 15 recap
Some random fantasy thoughts while savoring my first playoff victory in a few years (yes!) ...
- Just when we thought Jerome Harrison had been overtaken by Chris Jennings in the pecking order of Browns running backs, Harrison goes and busts out one of the greatest rushing performances the game's ever seen - 34 carries, 286 yards, 3 TDs against Kansas City. The shame of it is the chances of anyone actually starting Harrison in Week 15 are slim to none (let me know if you did). Harrison becomes perhaps the most unlikely must-start we've ever seen this week against Oakland. You'll also want Cedric Benson (and maybe even Larry Johnson as a flex) in your lineup against a downtrodden Chiefs D.
- DeAngelo Williams' early-game ankle injury was a killer, especially because Jonathan Stewart was able to rack up 109 yards and a TD on the ground against a tough Vikings D. We may have seen the last of Williams for this year, which at least would clear the way for Stewart
- Thank you, Roy Williams for the 1 catch and 14 yards in a critical week. Miles Austin was targeted a whopping 10 times more than our boy Roy.
- Hopefully you weren't scared off by all the "Randy Moss is a quitter" talk and benefited from his 5 catches, 70 yards and a TD on Sunday. The next two weeks against Jacksonville and Houston are looking very appealing for Mr. Moss.
- Beanie Wells is coming into his own at just the right time. He had his best day as a pro (110 yards, TD), and I'm expecting an encore against St. Louis.
- No TDs for Chris Johnson - what's up with that??? It's gotten to the point that 159 total yards is just not enough from this guy.
- Vincent Jackson picked the perfect time to shine (108 yards, 2 TDs) - the first time he's scored since Week 9. He could do some more damage on Christmas night against a Titans secondary that was getting torched with regularity not that long ago.
- Steven Jackson continued playing hurt, leading the team in rushing (82 yards) and receiving (41 yards), but I fear it's going to catch up to him against a Cardinals D that's typically pretty good at bottling up the run. It doesn't help that the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of.
- It will be tempting to start Michael Turner against the Bills' porous defense, but how can you insert him in your lineup in good conscience after Sunday's 1-carry, 7-yard disaster against the Jets?
- The Raiders decided to hand the ball off to Michael Bush 18 times on Sunday against Denver, and he rewarded them with 133 yards and a TD. That's surprising, not because Bush doesn't have the talent (he does), but because he had gotten only 22 carries in the past 5 games combined. Bush could repeat that feat or better it against the Browns if he gets a similar workload.
- DeSean Jackson continued his torrid play (6 catches, 140 yards, TD) and should be a staple of fantasy lineups at this point.
- That's the Aaron Rodgers we know and love (26-for-48, 383 yards, 3 TDs). Now do it again this week against the Seahawks, buddy.
- Speaking of the Seahawks, John Carlson caught his second TD in as many games and could do it again this week vs. Green Bay, if you trust a guy whose QB is Matt Hasselbeck (1 TD, 4 INTs, 45.2 passer rating Sunday).
- And speaking of tight ends, Todd Heap caught two TDs, his first trips to the end zone since Week 2. He's still a part of the Ravens' passing attack, so don't forget about him in Week 16.
- Just when we thought Jerome Harrison had been overtaken by Chris Jennings in the pecking order of Browns running backs, Harrison goes and busts out one of the greatest rushing performances the game's ever seen - 34 carries, 286 yards, 3 TDs against Kansas City. The shame of it is the chances of anyone actually starting Harrison in Week 15 are slim to none (let me know if you did). Harrison becomes perhaps the most unlikely must-start we've ever seen this week against Oakland. You'll also want Cedric Benson (and maybe even Larry Johnson as a flex) in your lineup against a downtrodden Chiefs D.
- DeAngelo Williams' early-game ankle injury was a killer, especially because Jonathan Stewart was able to rack up 109 yards and a TD on the ground against a tough Vikings D. We may have seen the last of Williams for this year, which at least would clear the way for Stewart
- Thank you, Roy Williams for the 1 catch and 14 yards in a critical week. Miles Austin was targeted a whopping 10 times more than our boy Roy.
- Hopefully you weren't scared off by all the "Randy Moss is a quitter" talk and benefited from his 5 catches, 70 yards and a TD on Sunday. The next two weeks against Jacksonville and Houston are looking very appealing for Mr. Moss.
- Beanie Wells is coming into his own at just the right time. He had his best day as a pro (110 yards, TD), and I'm expecting an encore against St. Louis.
- No TDs for Chris Johnson - what's up with that??? It's gotten to the point that 159 total yards is just not enough from this guy.
- Vincent Jackson picked the perfect time to shine (108 yards, 2 TDs) - the first time he's scored since Week 9. He could do some more damage on Christmas night against a Titans secondary that was getting torched with regularity not that long ago.
- Steven Jackson continued playing hurt, leading the team in rushing (82 yards) and receiving (41 yards), but I fear it's going to catch up to him against a Cardinals D that's typically pretty good at bottling up the run. It doesn't help that the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of.
- It will be tempting to start Michael Turner against the Bills' porous defense, but how can you insert him in your lineup in good conscience after Sunday's 1-carry, 7-yard disaster against the Jets?
- The Raiders decided to hand the ball off to Michael Bush 18 times on Sunday against Denver, and he rewarded them with 133 yards and a TD. That's surprising, not because Bush doesn't have the talent (he does), but because he had gotten only 22 carries in the past 5 games combined. Bush could repeat that feat or better it against the Browns if he gets a similar workload.
- DeSean Jackson continued his torrid play (6 catches, 140 yards, TD) and should be a staple of fantasy lineups at this point.
- That's the Aaron Rodgers we know and love (26-for-48, 383 yards, 3 TDs). Now do it again this week against the Seahawks, buddy.
- Speaking of the Seahawks, John Carlson caught his second TD in as many games and could do it again this week vs. Green Bay, if you trust a guy whose QB is Matt Hasselbeck (1 TD, 4 INTs, 45.2 passer rating Sunday).
- And speaking of tight ends, Todd Heap caught two TDs, his first trips to the end zone since Week 2. He's still a part of the Ravens' passing attack, so don't forget about him in Week 16.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Week 8 Recap
Some random fantasy thoughts while tuning into the Fox Favre Cam ....
- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.
- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.
- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.
- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.
- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.
- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.
- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.
- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.
- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.
-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.
- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.
- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.
- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.
- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.
- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.
- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.
- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.
- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.
- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.
- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.
-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.
- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Matt Forte is killing me
Matt Forte is killing me.
I had this guy pegged as my No. 3 overall pick entering this season, right behind Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner. Ahead of Chris Johnson. Ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew. Ahead of Steven Jackson. Ahead of DeAngelo Williams.
How's that looking? Check this out:
PLAYER, YARDS, TDs
Adrian Peterson, 618, 7
Chris Johnson, 596, 2
Steven Jackson, 501, 0
Maurice Jones-Drew, 468, 8
DeAngelo Williams, 372, 4
Matt Forte, 294, 1
In other words, Forte's sucked.
This is a guy who rushed for 1,238 yards last year and 8 TDs. He also caught 63 balls for 477 yards and 4 more scores.
This year, he's caught only 18 balls, none for TDs.
You figured with strong-armed Jay Cutler in town, the Bears might rely a little less on the running game this year. I'll buy that. But didn't you figure Forte might be even more involved in the passing game? And even when they've run the ball with him, he hasn't been very effective - see his two fumbles on the goal line Sunday night against Atlanta.
Blame some of Forte's struggles on the Bears' schedule, which isn't getting any easier in the coming weeks. Five of Chicago's next six opponents rank in the upper-half of the league in run defense. We can only hope the Bears make a sustained effort to run the ball and Forte keeps getting carries and can somehow regain last year's form.
Photo by The Associated Press
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
When stars refuse to shine
I know a bunch of people are bummed by their first- or second-round pick's performance in Week 1. I'm talking about guys like:
Chris Johnson (57 yards, 0 TDs)
Michael Turner (65 yards, 0 TDs)
Matt Forte (55 yards, 0 TDs)
Steve Smith (21 yards, 0 TDs)
Andre Johnson (35 yards, 0 TDs)
Steve Slaton (17 yards, 0 TDs)
Clinton Portis (62 yards, 0 TDs)
Brandon Jacobs (46 yards, 0 TDs)
Anquan Boldin (19 yards, 0 TDs)
and
Steven Jackson (67 yards, 0 TDs)
Those performances were all tough to swallow. But one of the worst mistakes you can make is to overreact to one game. There were reasons for all of those disappointments , from tough matchups (C. Johnson vs. Pittsburgh, Portis vs. the Giants, Slaton and A. Johnson vs. the Jets) to lingering injuries (Boldin) to poor offensive gameplans (Forte) to awful QB play (Smith). But you were willing to spend a high pick and build your team around all of those guys a week ago, so there's no need to go flipping out and totally writing off the season. All of those players are still studs and will serve you well in the weeks ahead.
Chris Johnson (57 yards, 0 TDs)
Michael Turner (65 yards, 0 TDs)
Matt Forte (55 yards, 0 TDs)
Steve Smith (21 yards, 0 TDs)
Andre Johnson (35 yards, 0 TDs)
Steve Slaton (17 yards, 0 TDs)
Clinton Portis (62 yards, 0 TDs)
Brandon Jacobs (46 yards, 0 TDs)
Anquan Boldin (19 yards, 0 TDs)
and
Steven Jackson (67 yards, 0 TDs)
Those performances were all tough to swallow. But one of the worst mistakes you can make is to overreact to one game. There were reasons for all of those disappointments , from tough matchups (C. Johnson vs. Pittsburgh, Portis vs. the Giants, Slaton and A. Johnson vs. the Jets) to lingering injuries (Boldin) to poor offensive gameplans (Forte) to awful QB play (Smith). But you were willing to spend a high pick and build your team around all of those guys a week ago, so there's no need to go flipping out and totally writing off the season. All of those players are still studs and will serve you well in the weeks ahead.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Worried about Peterson, Moss, others?
Week 4 is the perfect time to take stock of your fantasy team and figure out which direction it’s headed.
By now we’ve got a good idea of which NFL offenses look like powerhouses and which are just plain offensive. We’ve seen how certain running back timeshares will operate, which quarterbacks’ jobs are in jeopardy, whose surgically repaired body parts are holding up and whose legs have too many miles on them.
Also, with six NFL teams enjoying a bye week, the depth of fantasy rosters will be tested. It’s time to examine your squad with a critical eye and see where you stand. Some players will hold up to the scrutiny despite some early season question marks and injury concerns, while others are in serious danger.
Here are some notable guys I’m not too worried about, and some who deserve a red flag:
NO PROBLEMS HERE
LaDainian Tomlinson: His toe may be bothering him, but Tomlinson still rushed two touchdowns Monday night. That’s why I’d never sit LT – as long as he can stand on two feet, the San Diego Chargers will continue to feed him meaningful touches, no matter how good backup Darren Sproles looks.
Adrian Peterson: Even with a sore hamstring and the possibility he might sit out last Sunday,
Peterson still started and gutted out a tough 17 carries for 77 yards against a good Carolina Panthers defense. Things get no easier this week against the Tennessee Titans, but Peterson is simply too dangerous and too valuable a fantasy commodity to leave on your bench if he’s active.
Brian Westbrook: He’s listed as day to day with an ankle sprain, but worse injuries than that haven’t stopped this tough little S.O.B. Westbrook is the most dangerous player in fantasy football and can never be benched unless he’s officially ruled out. Grab Correll Buckhalter or Lorenzo Booker as insurance if you feel compelled, but expect to see a Westbrook touchdown or two Sunday night in Chicago.
Brett Favre: The veteran QB’s numbers have been acceptable as a low-end fantasy No. 1 to this point (six TDs vs. three INTs) even as he’s learning on the fly with the New York Jets. Expect him to soar in the coming weeks (vs. Arizona, Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City).
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Steven Jackson: From last season’s struggles to his holdout during camp, we had enough worries about Jackson entering the season. So far he and the miserable St. Louis Rams have done nothing to quell our fears, and the switch to QB Trent Green doesn’t help. This situation’s a mess.
Roy Williams: If the Detroit Lions can’t figure out Williams needs to
get more than three targets a game, there’s no hope for them. With frustration mounting, Mike Martz gone and Calvin Johnson taking on a bigger role, I’m officially worried about our boy Roy.
Randy Moss: From Moss’ perspective, QB Matt Cassel looks a lot more like Andrew Walter than Tom Brady so far. Might it be that Moss is only as good as the quarterback throwing to him? If true, it could be a long year.
Braylon Edwards: We know his shoulder’s bothering him, but Edwards better start pulling down some catches starting this Sunday at Cincinnati, or he’s going to cost QB Derek Anderson and maybe coach Romeo Crennel their jobs. He’s got a long way to go in proving he’s a fantasy No. 1
Photos by The Associated Press.
By now we’ve got a good idea of which NFL offenses look like powerhouses and which are just plain offensive. We’ve seen how certain running back timeshares will operate, which quarterbacks’ jobs are in jeopardy, whose surgically repaired body parts are holding up and whose legs have too many miles on them.
Also, with six NFL teams enjoying a bye week, the depth of fantasy rosters will be tested. It’s time to examine your squad with a critical eye and see where you stand. Some players will hold up to the scrutiny despite some early season question marks and injury concerns, while others are in serious danger.
Here are some notable guys I’m not too worried about, and some who deserve a red flag:
NO PROBLEMS HERE
LaDainian Tomlinson: His toe may be bothering him, but Tomlinson still rushed two touchdowns Monday night. That’s why I’d never sit LT – as long as he can stand on two feet, the San Diego Chargers will continue to feed him meaningful touches, no matter how good backup Darren Sproles looks.
Adrian Peterson: Even with a sore hamstring and the possibility he might sit out last Sunday,
Peterson still started and gutted out a tough 17 carries for 77 yards against a good Carolina Panthers defense. Things get no easier this week against the Tennessee Titans, but Peterson is simply too dangerous and too valuable a fantasy commodity to leave on your bench if he’s active.Brian Westbrook: He’s listed as day to day with an ankle sprain, but worse injuries than that haven’t stopped this tough little S.O.B. Westbrook is the most dangerous player in fantasy football and can never be benched unless he’s officially ruled out. Grab Correll Buckhalter or Lorenzo Booker as insurance if you feel compelled, but expect to see a Westbrook touchdown or two Sunday night in Chicago.
Brett Favre: The veteran QB’s numbers have been acceptable as a low-end fantasy No. 1 to this point (six TDs vs. three INTs) even as he’s learning on the fly with the New York Jets. Expect him to soar in the coming weeks (vs. Arizona, Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City).
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Steven Jackson: From last season’s struggles to his holdout during camp, we had enough worries about Jackson entering the season. So far he and the miserable St. Louis Rams have done nothing to quell our fears, and the switch to QB Trent Green doesn’t help. This situation’s a mess.
Roy Williams: If the Detroit Lions can’t figure out Williams needs to
get more than three targets a game, there’s no hope for them. With frustration mounting, Mike Martz gone and Calvin Johnson taking on a bigger role, I’m officially worried about our boy Roy.Randy Moss: From Moss’ perspective, QB Matt Cassel looks a lot more like Andrew Walter than Tom Brady so far. Might it be that Moss is only as good as the quarterback throwing to him? If true, it could be a long year.
Braylon Edwards: We know his shoulder’s bothering him, but Edwards better start pulling down some catches starting this Sunday at Cincinnati, or he’s going to cost QB Derek Anderson and maybe coach Romeo Crennel their jobs. He’s got a long way to go in proving he’s a fantasy No. 1
Photos by The Associated Press.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Worried about Steven Jackson?
Just a few weeks ago I said I had no worries about making Steven Jackson the No. 2 overall fantasy pick this year. True to my word, I even went out and did exactly that in one of my drafts.
Jackson rewarded me with a 58-yard, no-TD opener against Carolina. Even more disconcerting, he caught just one pass for three yards, lost two fumbles, and his best blocker, Rams left tackle Orlando Pace, got hurt and is out for the year?
So am I worried yet? No. Here are three reasons why:
1. Carolina had Jackson's number last year, too. They held him to just 27 yards in Week 10 of 2006, by far his lowest output last season. The Panthers can play a little defense.
2. Pace missed the last seven games of last season. Jackson's rushing average during that stretch: 106 yards a game. Throwing out the Carolina game, which came the week following Pace's injury: 119 yards a game. And he continued to be a receiving threat. Pace's absence won't hurt Jackson that much this year, either.
3. Jackson faces the 49ers this week. The same 49ers that let him rush for 103 yards and 121 yards in their two matchups last season. The same 49ers that also let him catch nine passes for 91 yards in their second meeting last year. If Jackson doesn't have a nice day this Sunday, maybe then I'll start considering possibly thinking about worrying.
But not now.
Jackson rewarded me with a 58-yard, no-TD opener against Carolina. Even more disconcerting, he caught just one pass for three yards, lost two fumbles, and his best blocker, Rams left tackle Orlando Pace, got hurt and is out for the year?
So am I worried yet? No. Here are three reasons why:
1. Carolina had Jackson's number last year, too. They held him to just 27 yards in Week 10 of 2006, by far his lowest output last season. The Panthers can play a little defense.
2. Pace missed the last seven games of last season. Jackson's rushing average during that stretch: 106 yards a game. Throwing out the Carolina game, which came the week following Pace's injury: 119 yards a game. And he continued to be a receiving threat. Pace's absence won't hurt Jackson that much this year, either.
3. Jackson faces the 49ers this week. The same 49ers that let him rush for 103 yards and 121 yards in their two matchups last season. The same 49ers that also let him catch nine passes for 91 yards in their second meeting last year. If Jackson doesn't have a nice day this Sunday, maybe then I'll start considering possibly thinking about worrying.
But not now.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
It's never too early ...
... to start planning for your 2007 football draft. I've put together an extremely early top-10 list. Keep in mind a lot can change (new coaching staffs, injuries, free agency, the draft) between now and August, but here's some help if you're in a keeper league, want to get a jump on the competition or, like me, have too much free time:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Pretty big no-brainer, right? It'd be foolish to expect another record-breaking season from our boy LT2 ... but I wouldn't put it past him either. The only worry I'd have is if he lands on the cover of Madden 2008, so start pulling hard for Drew Brees to make it.
2. Larry Johnson
If it wasn't for LT2's sick year we'd all be talking about LJ. Sure, Herm Edwards basically ran him into the ground, but his knees should be young enough to take some more abuse, and it's nice to know the head coach isn't shy about giving him the ball. If the Chiefs upgrade at QB and/or WR (and after that atrocious playoff performance, they desperately need to) it will only help Johnson next year.
3. Steven Jackson
Jackson only got stronger as the year wore on, establishing himself as a complete player and a bona fide fantasy stud. His game took a massive leap under new coach Scott Linehan, and at this rate, the 23-year-old will soon be putting up Marshall Faulk-type numbers.
4. Frank Gore
Gore is another well-rounded back who set a 49ers season rushing record last year with more than 1,600 yards but who also contributes in the passing game. And just like Gore, the Niners are a team on the rise, with a boatload of spending money (they'll be an estimated $40 million under next year's salary cap), a bunch of extra draft picks and an improving young QB in Alex Smith. These factors can only help Gore post a great season in '07.
5. Shaun Alexander
I know it was a down year for the big guy, due in large part to the infamous cracked bone in his foot. But even before the injury, he didn't quite look like his MVP self from a year earlier. I'm willing to chalk it up to a bad combination of the Madden Curse, a post-Super Bowl letdown for the Seahawks and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency. Alexander showed glimpses of his past domination late in the year, and although he'll be 30 next season I still think there's a lot of production left in him.
6. Peyton Manning
I'm slotting Peyton in the middle of this list, but his true positioning depends on the type of scoring in your league. Move him up or down depending on how important QBs are in your scoring system, but know this: Manning is the most consistent player at his position and virtually the only lock among fantasy QBs from year to year.
7. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook's always been a tantalizing talent, mostly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. But this year he's also proven himself as a workhorse runner, and except for a brief scare with his knee early in the year, he was surprisingly healthy, too. Before 2006, he'd only twice carried more than 20 times in a game (both times cracking the 100-yard rushing barrier). This year he's had five 20-carry games (including last week's playoff win against the Giants), and each time he rushed for 100 or more. If the Eagles continue to be a balanced offensive team with coordinator Marty Morningweg calling the plays, and if Westbrook's knees remain intact, he can have a stellar 2007.
8. Willie Parker
Fast Willie's gone from no-name to Pro Bowler in two short years. He was severly underrated entering this season, his first as a full-time feature back, but he shut everyone up with a huge year that included two 200-yard games, nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and 13 TDs (even more astonishing when you consider he also had five fumbles on the goal line). It remains to be seen how the Stillers offense will operate under a new coaching regime, but a best-case scenario for Parker and his owners would be if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt stays on with Pittsburgh either in that capacity or as head coach.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
This is a little bit of a reach right now, but I'm slotting the little guy in here based on potential. You saw what he's capable of, and that was without carrying the full load. If the Jaguars decide to cut Fred Taylor this offseason, the sky's the limit for the man they call "Pinball."
10. Rudi Johnson
Although his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time since becoming a starter, RJ scored 12 TDs for the third straight year. If there's one thing fantasy owners love, it's consistency. With Carson Palmer more than a year removed from that ghastly knee injury, the Bengals' offense should be another high-scoring unit, giving Johnson lots of opportunities and making him a safe fantasy pick. Of course, all of this gets thrown out of the window if he gets arrested in an effort to fit in with his teammates.
OTHERS TO WATCH: Joseph Addai could start approaching Edgerrin James territory as the Colts continue to phase out Dominic Rhodes. ... It might be a year late, but Ronnie Brown could have that breakout season we were all expecting in '06. He looked good after coming back from that hand injury, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding his team (new coach, instability at QB, plus the impending second return of Ricky Williams) ... Clinton Portis' value is a little hard to peg right now, given the injuries and emergence of Ladell Betts. I could see him doing anything from reclaiming the sole starting job and being a top-five back, entering the most annoying platoon ever, or maybe even getting traded. ... Palmer is the next best thing after Manning as far as QBs are concerned. I know Drew Brees gained a lot of believers out there, but Palmer has a slightly higher ceiling. ...
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Pretty big no-brainer, right? It'd be foolish to expect another record-breaking season from our boy LT2 ... but I wouldn't put it past him either. The only worry I'd have is if he lands on the cover of Madden 2008, so start pulling hard for Drew Brees to make it.
2. Larry Johnson
If it wasn't for LT2's sick year we'd all be talking about LJ. Sure, Herm Edwards basically ran him into the ground, but his knees should be young enough to take some more abuse, and it's nice to know the head coach isn't shy about giving him the ball. If the Chiefs upgrade at QB and/or WR (and after that atrocious playoff performance, they desperately need to) it will only help Johnson next year.
3. Steven Jackson
Jackson only got stronger as the year wore on, establishing himself as a complete player and a bona fide fantasy stud. His game took a massive leap under new coach Scott Linehan, and at this rate, the 23-year-old will soon be putting up Marshall Faulk-type numbers.
4. Frank Gore
Gore is another well-rounded back who set a 49ers season rushing record last year with more than 1,600 yards but who also contributes in the passing game. And just like Gore, the Niners are a team on the rise, with a boatload of spending money (they'll be an estimated $40 million under next year's salary cap), a bunch of extra draft picks and an improving young QB in Alex Smith. These factors can only help Gore post a great season in '07.
5. Shaun Alexander
I know it was a down year for the big guy, due in large part to the infamous cracked bone in his foot. But even before the injury, he didn't quite look like his MVP self from a year earlier. I'm willing to chalk it up to a bad combination of the Madden Curse, a post-Super Bowl letdown for the Seahawks and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency. Alexander showed glimpses of his past domination late in the year, and although he'll be 30 next season I still think there's a lot of production left in him.
6. Peyton Manning
I'm slotting Peyton in the middle of this list, but his true positioning depends on the type of scoring in your league. Move him up or down depending on how important QBs are in your scoring system, but know this: Manning is the most consistent player at his position and virtually the only lock among fantasy QBs from year to year.
7. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook's always been a tantalizing talent, mostly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. But this year he's also proven himself as a workhorse runner, and except for a brief scare with his knee early in the year, he was surprisingly healthy, too. Before 2006, he'd only twice carried more than 20 times in a game (both times cracking the 100-yard rushing barrier). This year he's had five 20-carry games (including last week's playoff win against the Giants), and each time he rushed for 100 or more. If the Eagles continue to be a balanced offensive team with coordinator Marty Morningweg calling the plays, and if Westbrook's knees remain intact, he can have a stellar 2007.
8. Willie Parker
Fast Willie's gone from no-name to Pro Bowler in two short years. He was severly underrated entering this season, his first as a full-time feature back, but he shut everyone up with a huge year that included two 200-yard games, nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and 13 TDs (even more astonishing when you consider he also had five fumbles on the goal line). It remains to be seen how the Stillers offense will operate under a new coaching regime, but a best-case scenario for Parker and his owners would be if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt stays on with Pittsburgh either in that capacity or as head coach.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
This is a little bit of a reach right now, but I'm slotting the little guy in here based on potential. You saw what he's capable of, and that was without carrying the full load. If the Jaguars decide to cut Fred Taylor this offseason, the sky's the limit for the man they call "Pinball."
10. Rudi Johnson
Although his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time since becoming a starter, RJ scored 12 TDs for the third straight year. If there's one thing fantasy owners love, it's consistency. With Carson Palmer more than a year removed from that ghastly knee injury, the Bengals' offense should be another high-scoring unit, giving Johnson lots of opportunities and making him a safe fantasy pick. Of course, all of this gets thrown out of the window if he gets arrested in an effort to fit in with his teammates.
OTHERS TO WATCH: Joseph Addai could start approaching Edgerrin James territory as the Colts continue to phase out Dominic Rhodes. ... It might be a year late, but Ronnie Brown could have that breakout season we were all expecting in '06. He looked good after coming back from that hand injury, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding his team (new coach, instability at QB, plus the impending second return of Ricky Williams) ... Clinton Portis' value is a little hard to peg right now, given the injuries and emergence of Ladell Betts. I could see him doing anything from reclaiming the sole starting job and being a top-five back, entering the most annoying platoon ever, or maybe even getting traded. ... Palmer is the next best thing after Manning as far as QBs are concerned. I know Drew Brees gained a lot of believers out there, but Palmer has a slightly higher ceiling. ...
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