It’s time once again for the Fantasy Focus weekly features, Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em. The concept is pretty simple: Each week, in preparation for that Sunday’s action, I’ll offer three guys I recommend for your starting lineup, then three guys I think you should stay away from.
I’m not going to waste your time, or mine, by telling you to start Peyton Manning and sit Sam Bradford. Duh. Instead I’ll be focusing on borderline guys, backups, flex players – because that’s where fantasy matchups are won or lost.
Just to keep me honest, I’ll also check in on my previous week’s picks so you can track my recommendations and hold me to them. Sound good? Alright, then here we go:
- PERCY HARVIN at Saints: Harvin says his doctors have found the cause of the debilitating migraines that have plagued him for years and put his 2010 season in jeopardy. The Vikings aren't sharing this medical breakthrough with the millions of other migraine sufferers, but I guess we can let that slide if Harvin can contribute to our fantasy teams. The Vikes seem to have no doubt that will be the case, as they traded away kick returner Darius Reynaud to give the job to Harvin. Minnesota would be wise to go to Harvin early and often with Sidney Rice on the shelf. He's an optimal flex play this week.
- MATT FORTE vs. Lions: If only Forte could've played Detroit 16 times last year. The Bears RB only cracked the 100-yard mark twice in an otherwise dismal 2009, but both came against the Lions: 121 yards and a TD in Week 4, 101 yards in Week 17. I'm not totally sold on a Forte comeback in 2010, but this is one week I'm buying.
- BEANIE WELLS vs. Rams: I'm still not sure how coach Ken Whisenhunt envisions splitting up the work this year between Cardinals RBs Beanie and Tim Hightower. But with Derek Anderson piloting the offense (yikes!) I expect to see a heavy workload for Wells. In his two meetings with St. Louis last year, Beanie ran for 74 yards and a TD and 64 yards and a TD, so we could very well see a repeat.
Showing posts with label Peyton Manning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peyton Manning. Show all posts
Thursday, September 09, 2010
Sunday, August 15, 2010
8/15 Bust of the Day: Tom Brady
QB TOM BRADY, Patriots
Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.
But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.
Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.
Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.
That's all I'm sayin'.
Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.
But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.
Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.
Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.
That's all I'm sayin'.
Friday, August 13, 2010
8/13 Bust of the Day: Joseph Addai
RB JOSEPH ADDAI, Colts
There's a lot to like about Addai. He's a trusted and important part of the Colts offense. He scored 13 total TDs last year. He compiled 1,164 rushing and receiving yards in 2009. And he's playing for a new contract in 2010.
That said, why am I dissing Addai as a potential bust? Allow me to explain.
Addai's 13 TDs last year helped cover up the fact he averaged only 3.8 yards a carry, the second year in a row that number was under 4. Whether that's because the Colts offensive line is better equipped to protect Peyton Manning than to run block these days, it's hard to say. But Addai hasn't displayed a whole lot of big-play ability either - he hasn't had a run longer than 23 yards since his rookie season in 2006.
And I'll tell you who does have big-play ability: second-year back Donald Brown, Addai's backup. Brown's rookie season didn't go as well as I and some other prognositcators envisioned (281 rushing yards, 3.6 a carry, 3 TDs in 11 games). But he's flashed the explosiveness Addai has lacked - his 45-yard run in Week 7 against St. Louis last year is longer than any in Addai's career. Now that the former first-rounder has had more than a year to master the Colts' complicated offense, expect to see him take on a bigger role this year and siphon some carries from Addai. Besides, with Addai being eligible for free agency next season, Indy will probably want to figure out if their investment has what it takes to be a feature back.
I'm not saying Addai doesn't have value. His versatility and his role in the Colts' passing attack are still appealing. I just don't think he's a top-20 back this year as many are predicting.
Photo by The Associated Press
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
I'll trade you Pujols for Peyton ...
A friend of mine mentioned a pretty interesting idea the other day: could a combination football/baseball fantasy league work?
It's an intriguing proposition to say the least. The logistics would be complicated and the commitment great. First off, you'd have to get the same 8-12 people to sign up for a season that would last from April to December. My guess is there's probably a good deal of overlapping of folks who play in both a baseball and a football league, but who knows?
Another big factor: The standings and scoring format. Would you play head-to-head throughout the year? Would you crown a "midseason champion" at the end of baseball season and give that winner some kind of prize bonus (not that I condone monetary gambling of any kind)? Would you then reset the standings completely? (Probably not, since you might as well just play two separate leagues in that case.) If it's one long season and a team's stuck near the bottom of the standings around August, would the prospect of reinforcing your team with a whole football roster be enough to keep them interested?
Here's the really fascinating part, as my bud Jason Dill put it when he was pitching this idea: What if you could trade Albert Pujols for Peyton Manning? Or Alex Rodriguez for Adrian Peterson (A-Rod for AD)? Or to be a little more obscure, Chone Figgins for Shonn Greene?
If you held your football draft early enough in the NFL preseason, you could have about a month's overlap between football and baseball seasons with which to swap players between sports. You'd probably have to make this a keeper league, too, to keep owners from dumping all their best baseball players to shore up their football team - which adds yet another layer of complication to this Super League.
And if you really wanted to blow this thing out: How about making it a fantasy basketball league, too?
Just something to think about during a slow time in the fantasy sports world.
It's an intriguing proposition to say the least. The logistics would be complicated and the commitment great. First off, you'd have to get the same 8-12 people to sign up for a season that would last from April to December. My guess is there's probably a good deal of overlapping of folks who play in both a baseball and a football league, but who knows?
Another big factor: The standings and scoring format. Would you play head-to-head throughout the year? Would you crown a "midseason champion" at the end of baseball season and give that winner some kind of prize bonus (not that I condone monetary gambling of any kind)? Would you then reset the standings completely? (Probably not, since you might as well just play two separate leagues in that case.) If it's one long season and a team's stuck near the bottom of the standings around August, would the prospect of reinforcing your team with a whole football roster be enough to keep them interested?
Here's the really fascinating part, as my bud Jason Dill put it when he was pitching this idea: What if you could trade Albert Pujols for Peyton Manning? Or Alex Rodriguez for Adrian Peterson (A-Rod for AD)? Or to be a little more obscure, Chone Figgins for Shonn Greene?
If you held your football draft early enough in the NFL preseason, you could have about a month's overlap between football and baseball seasons with which to swap players between sports. You'd probably have to make this a keeper league, too, to keep owners from dumping all their best baseball players to shore up their football team - which adds yet another layer of complication to this Super League.
And if you really wanted to blow this thing out: How about making it a fantasy basketball league, too?
Just something to think about during a slow time in the fantasy sports world.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Best of the decade?
As we say goodbye to 2009, I'm seeing all kinds of all-decade lists popping up all over the place (Best movies? Best songs? Best TV themes?)
It got me thinking: Who were the best fantasy players of the 2000s? It'd be awfully hard to narrow it down to an all-decade team. For instance, Peyton Manning's probably the obvious choice at QB, but how do you deny Tom Brady's record-busting 2007 season? Or how do you narrow it down to 1 or 2 running backs - say, LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes - and leave out a Brian Westbrook or Adrian Peterson or Marshall Faulk?
Jay Clemons of SI.com actually figured out a better approach, ranking the top 10 fantasy seasons of the decade. Here's what they came up with in a nutshell:
1. Tom Brady, 2007
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006
3. Peyton Manning, 2004
4. Randy Moss, 2007
5. Shaun Alexander, 2005
6. Daunte Culpepper, 2004
7. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2003
8. Marvin Harrison, 2002
9. Tony Gonzalez, 2004
10. Drew Brees, 2008
A few things jump out at me:
- How does Holmes not make the list? It's easy to forget that near the start of the decade he was every bit as dominating as Tomlinson in his prime and single-handedly won many leagues in the early 2000s. A tight end makes the list and Priest doesn't?
- Brady may have had the single most impressive fantasy season of the '00s, but as SI points out, the rest of his career belongs simply in the "good" category, from a fantasy standpoint.
- It's almost unfathomable that Culpepper, who can't even stay on the field for the Detroit Lions nowadays, was once the game's best fantasy QB. I owned him in 2004, his incredible 39-TD season, and loved every minute of it. I also drafted him the following year, the start of his long downward career spiral, and still haven't forgiven him.
Photo by The Associated Press
Monday, December 14, 2009
Week 14 recap
- Thanks, Aaron Rodgers, for not throwing ONE STINKING TD PASS in a critical week for fantasy. Ryan Grant (20 carries, 137 yards, 2 TDs) did all the heavy lifting for the Packers against the Bears.
- Peyton Manning, on the other hand, didn't disappoint (4 TDs) and could have been even better if not for 3 INTs.
- Speaking of stepping up, how about that Brandon Marshall? A PPR player's dream: an NFL-record 23 receptions, including 2 TDs, and 200 receiving yards. The surprising part? It was only the second time he's had double-digit receptions all year.
- Give Andre Johnson (193 yards, 2 TDs) a game ball, too.
- And while we're at it, a round of applause for Chris Johnson (186 total yards, 3 TDs), a one-man fantasy wrecking ball all season.
- Pat yourself on the back for drafting/picking up/starting Jamaal Charles (143 rushing yards, TD, 7 catches for 38 yards). And rejoice in next week's date with the Browns.
- Cedric Benson was surprisingly effective against Minnesota's defense (96 yards on 16 carries), and the purported timeshare with Larry Johnson (3 carries, 4 yards) never materialized. Benson is a safe play next Sunday at San Diego.
- Rickey Williams enjoyed his fourth 100-yard rushing game in the past 5 weeks and scored his 11th TD of the year.
- Who is Quinton Ganther? A former practice-squad RB from Utah who scored 2 TDs for Washington, that's who. Expect to see more of him in the coming weeks as the Redskins' RB roulette continues.
- Another 'Skin deserves a look, too: It's TE Fred Davis, who has 4 TDs in his past three games and who next faces the Giants, who had no answer for Philly's Brent Celek (5 catches, 64 yards, TD) this week.
- Speaking of answers, Randy Moss owes each of his fantasy owners one after that "performance" (1 catch, 16 yards, fumble, general disinterest in playing football on Sunday).
- Peyton Manning, on the other hand, didn't disappoint (4 TDs) and could have been even better if not for 3 INTs.
- Speaking of stepping up, how about that Brandon Marshall? A PPR player's dream: an NFL-record 23 receptions, including 2 TDs, and 200 receiving yards. The surprising part? It was only the second time he's had double-digit receptions all year.
- Give Andre Johnson (193 yards, 2 TDs) a game ball, too.
- And while we're at it, a round of applause for Chris Johnson (186 total yards, 3 TDs), a one-man fantasy wrecking ball all season.
- Pat yourself on the back for drafting/picking up/starting Jamaal Charles (143 rushing yards, TD, 7 catches for 38 yards). And rejoice in next week's date with the Browns.
- Cedric Benson was surprisingly effective against Minnesota's defense (96 yards on 16 carries), and the purported timeshare with Larry Johnson (3 carries, 4 yards) never materialized. Benson is a safe play next Sunday at San Diego.
- Rickey Williams enjoyed his fourth 100-yard rushing game in the past 5 weeks and scored his 11th TD of the year.
- Who is Quinton Ganther? A former practice-squad RB from Utah who scored 2 TDs for Washington, that's who. Expect to see more of him in the coming weeks as the Redskins' RB roulette continues.
- Another 'Skin deserves a look, too: It's TE Fred Davis, who has 4 TDs in his past three games and who next faces the Giants, who had no answer for Philly's Brent Celek (5 catches, 64 yards, TD) this week.
- Speaking of answers, Randy Moss owes each of his fantasy owners one after that "performance" (1 catch, 16 yards, fumble, general disinterest in playing football on Sunday).
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Week 8 Recap
Some random fantasy thoughts while tuning into the Fox Favre Cam ....
- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.
- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.
- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.
- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.
- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.
- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.
- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.
- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.
- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.
-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.
- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.
- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.
- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.
- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.
- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.
- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.
- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.
- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.
- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.
- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.
-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.
- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Hot Pickups: Week 4
FIVE STARS (Out of five):
- RB GLEN COFFEE, 49ers: Frank Gore's understudy got rave reviews in Niners training camp. Now the rookie gets a starting gig with Gore out for the next three weeks with an ankle injury. It doesn't seem like San Fran will hesitate to lean on Coffee - he got 25 carries (for 54 yards) in relief of Gore last week against the run-tough Vikings. Now he gets a crack at the run-soft Rams D on Sunday.
FOUR STARS:
- WR KEVIN WALTER, Texans: Some owner may have lost patience with Walter after he missed Weeks 1 and 2 with a hamstring injury and dropped him. He made them look really bad with a 7-catch, 96-yard, 1-TD effort in Week 3. He's back, and he should be on your team and in your lineup as a No. 2/3 WR or flex player against the Raiders this week.
THREE STARS:
- RB FRED TAYLOR, Patriots: His performance last Sunday (21 carries, 105 yards, TD) will automatically stamp him as a hot pickup in any league in which he's not already owned. There will probably be more of these types of performances to come, too. But be forewarned: He's facing the Ravens this week, and there's a decent chance Laurence Maroney or Sammy Morris or Kevin Faulk could lead the Pats in rushing on any given week.
- WR PIERRE GARCON, Colts: The dude with the cool name (wish I knew how to type that little accent thing under the C in his last name!) has now scored a TD in two straight weeks and seems to be rounding into a big-play threat for Peyton Manning in Anthony Gonzalez's absence. And that means he belongs on a fantasy roster.
TWO STARS:
QB CHAD HENNE, Dolphins: Henne's the man in Miami now that Chad Pennington is out for the season. Does that mean he should be picked up? I'd take a wait-and-see approach for now - chances are the Fins will lean heavily on Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown with a little bit of Pat White mixed in.
- RB GLEN COFFEE, 49ers: Frank Gore's understudy got rave reviews in Niners training camp. Now the rookie gets a starting gig with Gore out for the next three weeks with an ankle injury. It doesn't seem like San Fran will hesitate to lean on Coffee - he got 25 carries (for 54 yards) in relief of Gore last week against the run-tough Vikings. Now he gets a crack at the run-soft Rams D on Sunday.
FOUR STARS:
- WR KEVIN WALTER, Texans: Some owner may have lost patience with Walter after he missed Weeks 1 and 2 with a hamstring injury and dropped him. He made them look really bad with a 7-catch, 96-yard, 1-TD effort in Week 3. He's back, and he should be on your team and in your lineup as a No. 2/3 WR or flex player against the Raiders this week.
THREE STARS:
- RB FRED TAYLOR, Patriots: His performance last Sunday (21 carries, 105 yards, TD) will automatically stamp him as a hot pickup in any league in which he's not already owned. There will probably be more of these types of performances to come, too. But be forewarned: He's facing the Ravens this week, and there's a decent chance Laurence Maroney or Sammy Morris or Kevin Faulk could lead the Pats in rushing on any given week.
- WR PIERRE GARCON, Colts: The dude with the cool name (wish I knew how to type that little accent thing under the C in his last name!) has now scored a TD in two straight weeks and seems to be rounding into a big-play threat for Peyton Manning in Anthony Gonzalez's absence. And that means he belongs on a fantasy roster.
TWO STARS:
QB CHAD HENNE, Dolphins: Henne's the man in Miami now that Chad Pennington is out for the season. Does that mean he should be picked up? I'd take a wait-and-see approach for now - chances are the Fins will lean heavily on Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown with a little bit of Pat White mixed in.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
The great QB debate
Who's the top QB to target in fantasy this year? For me, the choice comes down to three: Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
Let's start with old reliable, Mr. Manning. Has he had a disappointing season yet? He's never missed a start in 11 seasons. He's never thrown for fewer than 3,700 yards or 26 TDs in a season either. Now, Manning is a long way from his amazing 49-TD season in 2004, the record-breaking Reggie Wayne-Marvin Harrison duo is no more, and he's dealing with the most significant coaching changes of his NFL career. At age 33, Peyton doesn't offer the same kind of upside he once did - but at the same time, there's probably no safer pick in all of fantasy. He checks in at No. 3 on this year's QB rankings.
If you're more of a gambler, Brady might be your pick. Some people want to pretend like last year's devastating Week 1 knee injury never happened and Brady will pick up where he left off with 2007's 50-TD campaign. I'm not sure I can go with that, and I'd have to think long and hard before making Brady my QB. We've seen other quarterbacks - Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb - struggle to come back from similar ACL injuries, but they were much more mobile than Brady to begin with. Carson Palmer also suffered a similar injury in 2005 but bounced back nicely the following season. Can Brady do the same? He's had a full year to recover, and his strong point has never been his legs anyway. Can he return to the same record-setting, fantasy-MVP level he was at in '07? Maybe. He's got just as many receiving targets - Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis - a similar running back committee and and the same mastermind, Bill Belichick, running the offense. There may not be a QB with more fantasy potential, but if that knee isn't fully healed, taking Brady with a first-round pick could devastate your team. He's No. 2 on our list.
That leaves Brees as this year's top fantasy QB. He's led the league in pass attempts the past two seasons, and although the Saints might like to be a little more balanced on offense, Sean Payton's not afraid to air it out, meaning Brees has a legit shot at hitting the 5,000-yard mark and maybe setting the single-season passing record. With a complete arsenal - Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas - to spread the ball around to, Brees could finish head and shoulders above the rest of the league's QBs.
Let's start with old reliable, Mr. Manning. Has he had a disappointing season yet? He's never missed a start in 11 seasons. He's never thrown for fewer than 3,700 yards or 26 TDs in a season either. Now, Manning is a long way from his amazing 49-TD season in 2004, the record-breaking Reggie Wayne-Marvin Harrison duo is no more, and he's dealing with the most significant coaching changes of his NFL career. At age 33, Peyton doesn't offer the same kind of upside he once did - but at the same time, there's probably no safer pick in all of fantasy. He checks in at No. 3 on this year's QB rankings.
If you're more of a gambler, Brady might be your pick. Some people want to pretend like last year's devastating Week 1 knee injury never happened and Brady will pick up where he left off with 2007's 50-TD campaign. I'm not sure I can go with that, and I'd have to think long and hard before making Brady my QB. We've seen other quarterbacks - Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb - struggle to come back from similar ACL injuries, but they were much more mobile than Brady to begin with. Carson Palmer also suffered a similar injury in 2005 but bounced back nicely the following season. Can Brady do the same? He's had a full year to recover, and his strong point has never been his legs anyway. Can he return to the same record-setting, fantasy-MVP level he was at in '07? Maybe. He's got just as many receiving targets - Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis - a similar running back committee and and the same mastermind, Bill Belichick, running the offense. There may not be a QB with more fantasy potential, but if that knee isn't fully healed, taking Brady with a first-round pick could devastate your team. He's No. 2 on our list.
That leaves Brees as this year's top fantasy QB. He's led the league in pass attempts the past two seasons, and although the Saints might like to be a little more balanced on offense, Sean Payton's not afraid to air it out, meaning Brees has a legit shot at hitting the 5,000-yard mark and maybe setting the single-season passing record. With a complete arsenal - Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas - to spread the ball around to, Brees could finish head and shoulders above the rest of the league's QBs.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Game-planning for Week 17? Good luck
Week 17 of the NFL season is probably the trickiest one to predict from a fantasy standpoint.
You’ve got a handful of teams that already have their playoff positioning locked in. Will they opt to rest their key starters? We saw how that strategy backfired on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. So do teams instead go the New York Giants’ route and give 100 percent in a “meaningless” finale? The Giants players credited their Week 17 loss to the New England Patriots last year as a catalyst for their Super Bowl run.
NFL coaches face some serious conundrums when it comes to resting starters who are nursing injuries and risking their teams losing momentum or getting out of synch come playoff time. And then there are the non-playoff teams: Are they motivated to play spoiler or end the season on a high note, or have they already mentally packed their bags for some sunny offseason locale?
It’s an interesting dilemma, and it makes for some difficult roster calls. Here’s some advice for those whose fantasy teams are still alive this week:
g The Arizona Cardinals clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, but I’d still expect to see at least a few quarters out of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and the still-healing Anquan Boldin against Seattle. Those three need to get their aerial act together if they want to avoid getting bounced in the first round, so count on them seeing significant time against a bad Seahawks defense coming off an emotional win with little left to play for.
g I’m avoiding Marion Barber and his toe troubles this week unless I have no other choice — and that includes Dallas Cowboys rookie backup Tashard Choice, who’s run for 88, 91 and 90 yards against three of the league’s toughest run defenses the past three weeks.
g Use caution if you’re starting any Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans, as both of those teams already have their playoff spots locked in. A quarter or two of Peyton Manning is probably too good to pass up, but I’d be a little hesitant about starting anyone else in that game.
g Start all your noteworthy San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos in what will be a win-or-go-home, defensively challenged shootout: Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal. Just bench Broncos RB Tatum Bell — the position’s cursed this year.
g The New Orleans Saints are out of it, but Drew Brees is only 402 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas are worth starting, even against the Carolina Panthers, whose playoff positioning has yet to be determined.
g If the Detroit Lions want to avoid an 0-16 season (let’s assume they do) they would be wise to utilize running back Kevin Smith against Green Bay. The rookie matched his single-season high for carries (24) last week and had his second-best rushing total (112) along with a TD. With enough work he could match those numbers against the Packers’ so-so run D.
g If last week taught us anything, it’s to start your New England Patriots no matter what the weather forecast looks like. QB Matt Cassel was simply awesome in the snow, and with a playoff spot still a possibility I expect he and the Pats’ passing game will crush the Buffalo Bills.
g This sounds crazy after the Giants just rushed for 301 yards, but you may want to avoid all of Big Blue’s running backs this week. New York has nothing to play for against the Minnesota Vikings, so they could opt to rest Brandon Jacobs and his ailing knee — which limits Derrick Ward’s threat as a change-of-pace back. Ahmad Bradshaw might end up seeing the most touches, but he faces a stout run defense and a team that still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot.
You’ve got a handful of teams that already have their playoff positioning locked in. Will they opt to rest their key starters? We saw how that strategy backfired on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. So do teams instead go the New York Giants’ route and give 100 percent in a “meaningless” finale? The Giants players credited their Week 17 loss to the New England Patriots last year as a catalyst for their Super Bowl run.
NFL coaches face some serious conundrums when it comes to resting starters who are nursing injuries and risking their teams losing momentum or getting out of synch come playoff time. And then there are the non-playoff teams: Are they motivated to play spoiler or end the season on a high note, or have they already mentally packed their bags for some sunny offseason locale?
It’s an interesting dilemma, and it makes for some difficult roster calls. Here’s some advice for those whose fantasy teams are still alive this week:
g The Arizona Cardinals clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, but I’d still expect to see at least a few quarters out of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and the still-healing Anquan Boldin against Seattle. Those three need to get their aerial act together if they want to avoid getting bounced in the first round, so count on them seeing significant time against a bad Seahawks defense coming off an emotional win with little left to play for.
g I’m avoiding Marion Barber and his toe troubles this week unless I have no other choice — and that includes Dallas Cowboys rookie backup Tashard Choice, who’s run for 88, 91 and 90 yards against three of the league’s toughest run defenses the past three weeks.
g Use caution if you’re starting any Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans, as both of those teams already have their playoff spots locked in. A quarter or two of Peyton Manning is probably too good to pass up, but I’d be a little hesitant about starting anyone else in that game.
g Start all your noteworthy San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos in what will be a win-or-go-home, defensively challenged shootout: Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal. Just bench Broncos RB Tatum Bell — the position’s cursed this year.
g The New Orleans Saints are out of it, but Drew Brees is only 402 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas are worth starting, even against the Carolina Panthers, whose playoff positioning has yet to be determined.
g If the Detroit Lions want to avoid an 0-16 season (let’s assume they do) they would be wise to utilize running back Kevin Smith against Green Bay. The rookie matched his single-season high for carries (24) last week and had his second-best rushing total (112) along with a TD. With enough work he could match those numbers against the Packers’ so-so run D.
g If last week taught us anything, it’s to start your New England Patriots no matter what the weather forecast looks like. QB Matt Cassel was simply awesome in the snow, and with a playoff spot still a possibility I expect he and the Pats’ passing game will crush the Buffalo Bills.
g This sounds crazy after the Giants just rushed for 301 yards, but you may want to avoid all of Big Blue’s running backs this week. New York has nothing to play for against the Minnesota Vikings, so they could opt to rest Brandon Jacobs and his ailing knee — which limits Derrick Ward’s threat as a change-of-pace back. Ahmad Bradshaw might end up seeing the most touches, but he faces a stout run defense and a team that still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Can you trust your quarterback?
In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.
By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.
The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.
As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.
Here’s how I break it down:
QBs YOU CAN TRUST
Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.
Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.
Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.
Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.
Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.
Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.
Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.
Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.
Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.
QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST
Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.
By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.
The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.
As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.
Here’s how I break it down:
QBs YOU CAN TRUST
Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.
Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.
Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.
Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.
Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.
Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.
Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.
QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST
Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
It's never too early ...
... to start planning for your 2007 football draft. I've put together an extremely early top-10 list. Keep in mind a lot can change (new coaching staffs, injuries, free agency, the draft) between now and August, but here's some help if you're in a keeper league, want to get a jump on the competition or, like me, have too much free time:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Pretty big no-brainer, right? It'd be foolish to expect another record-breaking season from our boy LT2 ... but I wouldn't put it past him either. The only worry I'd have is if he lands on the cover of Madden 2008, so start pulling hard for Drew Brees to make it.
2. Larry Johnson
If it wasn't for LT2's sick year we'd all be talking about LJ. Sure, Herm Edwards basically ran him into the ground, but his knees should be young enough to take some more abuse, and it's nice to know the head coach isn't shy about giving him the ball. If the Chiefs upgrade at QB and/or WR (and after that atrocious playoff performance, they desperately need to) it will only help Johnson next year.
3. Steven Jackson
Jackson only got stronger as the year wore on, establishing himself as a complete player and a bona fide fantasy stud. His game took a massive leap under new coach Scott Linehan, and at this rate, the 23-year-old will soon be putting up Marshall Faulk-type numbers.
4. Frank Gore
Gore is another well-rounded back who set a 49ers season rushing record last year with more than 1,600 yards but who also contributes in the passing game. And just like Gore, the Niners are a team on the rise, with a boatload of spending money (they'll be an estimated $40 million under next year's salary cap), a bunch of extra draft picks and an improving young QB in Alex Smith. These factors can only help Gore post a great season in '07.
5. Shaun Alexander
I know it was a down year for the big guy, due in large part to the infamous cracked bone in his foot. But even before the injury, he didn't quite look like his MVP self from a year earlier. I'm willing to chalk it up to a bad combination of the Madden Curse, a post-Super Bowl letdown for the Seahawks and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency. Alexander showed glimpses of his past domination late in the year, and although he'll be 30 next season I still think there's a lot of production left in him.
6. Peyton Manning
I'm slotting Peyton in the middle of this list, but his true positioning depends on the type of scoring in your league. Move him up or down depending on how important QBs are in your scoring system, but know this: Manning is the most consistent player at his position and virtually the only lock among fantasy QBs from year to year.
7. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook's always been a tantalizing talent, mostly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. But this year he's also proven himself as a workhorse runner, and except for a brief scare with his knee early in the year, he was surprisingly healthy, too. Before 2006, he'd only twice carried more than 20 times in a game (both times cracking the 100-yard rushing barrier). This year he's had five 20-carry games (including last week's playoff win against the Giants), and each time he rushed for 100 or more. If the Eagles continue to be a balanced offensive team with coordinator Marty Morningweg calling the plays, and if Westbrook's knees remain intact, he can have a stellar 2007.
8. Willie Parker
Fast Willie's gone from no-name to Pro Bowler in two short years. He was severly underrated entering this season, his first as a full-time feature back, but he shut everyone up with a huge year that included two 200-yard games, nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and 13 TDs (even more astonishing when you consider he also had five fumbles on the goal line). It remains to be seen how the Stillers offense will operate under a new coaching regime, but a best-case scenario for Parker and his owners would be if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt stays on with Pittsburgh either in that capacity or as head coach.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
This is a little bit of a reach right now, but I'm slotting the little guy in here based on potential. You saw what he's capable of, and that was without carrying the full load. If the Jaguars decide to cut Fred Taylor this offseason, the sky's the limit for the man they call "Pinball."
10. Rudi Johnson
Although his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time since becoming a starter, RJ scored 12 TDs for the third straight year. If there's one thing fantasy owners love, it's consistency. With Carson Palmer more than a year removed from that ghastly knee injury, the Bengals' offense should be another high-scoring unit, giving Johnson lots of opportunities and making him a safe fantasy pick. Of course, all of this gets thrown out of the window if he gets arrested in an effort to fit in with his teammates.
OTHERS TO WATCH: Joseph Addai could start approaching Edgerrin James territory as the Colts continue to phase out Dominic Rhodes. ... It might be a year late, but Ronnie Brown could have that breakout season we were all expecting in '06. He looked good after coming back from that hand injury, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding his team (new coach, instability at QB, plus the impending second return of Ricky Williams) ... Clinton Portis' value is a little hard to peg right now, given the injuries and emergence of Ladell Betts. I could see him doing anything from reclaiming the sole starting job and being a top-five back, entering the most annoying platoon ever, or maybe even getting traded. ... Palmer is the next best thing after Manning as far as QBs are concerned. I know Drew Brees gained a lot of believers out there, but Palmer has a slightly higher ceiling. ...
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Pretty big no-brainer, right? It'd be foolish to expect another record-breaking season from our boy LT2 ... but I wouldn't put it past him either. The only worry I'd have is if he lands on the cover of Madden 2008, so start pulling hard for Drew Brees to make it.
2. Larry Johnson
If it wasn't for LT2's sick year we'd all be talking about LJ. Sure, Herm Edwards basically ran him into the ground, but his knees should be young enough to take some more abuse, and it's nice to know the head coach isn't shy about giving him the ball. If the Chiefs upgrade at QB and/or WR (and after that atrocious playoff performance, they desperately need to) it will only help Johnson next year.
3. Steven Jackson
Jackson only got stronger as the year wore on, establishing himself as a complete player and a bona fide fantasy stud. His game took a massive leap under new coach Scott Linehan, and at this rate, the 23-year-old will soon be putting up Marshall Faulk-type numbers.
4. Frank Gore
Gore is another well-rounded back who set a 49ers season rushing record last year with more than 1,600 yards but who also contributes in the passing game. And just like Gore, the Niners are a team on the rise, with a boatload of spending money (they'll be an estimated $40 million under next year's salary cap), a bunch of extra draft picks and an improving young QB in Alex Smith. These factors can only help Gore post a great season in '07.
5. Shaun Alexander
I know it was a down year for the big guy, due in large part to the infamous cracked bone in his foot. But even before the injury, he didn't quite look like his MVP self from a year earlier. I'm willing to chalk it up to a bad combination of the Madden Curse, a post-Super Bowl letdown for the Seahawks and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency. Alexander showed glimpses of his past domination late in the year, and although he'll be 30 next season I still think there's a lot of production left in him.
6. Peyton Manning
I'm slotting Peyton in the middle of this list, but his true positioning depends on the type of scoring in your league. Move him up or down depending on how important QBs are in your scoring system, but know this: Manning is the most consistent player at his position and virtually the only lock among fantasy QBs from year to year.
7. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook's always been a tantalizing talent, mostly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. But this year he's also proven himself as a workhorse runner, and except for a brief scare with his knee early in the year, he was surprisingly healthy, too. Before 2006, he'd only twice carried more than 20 times in a game (both times cracking the 100-yard rushing barrier). This year he's had five 20-carry games (including last week's playoff win against the Giants), and each time he rushed for 100 or more. If the Eagles continue to be a balanced offensive team with coordinator Marty Morningweg calling the plays, and if Westbrook's knees remain intact, he can have a stellar 2007.
8. Willie Parker
Fast Willie's gone from no-name to Pro Bowler in two short years. He was severly underrated entering this season, his first as a full-time feature back, but he shut everyone up with a huge year that included two 200-yard games, nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and 13 TDs (even more astonishing when you consider he also had five fumbles on the goal line). It remains to be seen how the Stillers offense will operate under a new coaching regime, but a best-case scenario for Parker and his owners would be if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt stays on with Pittsburgh either in that capacity or as head coach.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
This is a little bit of a reach right now, but I'm slotting the little guy in here based on potential. You saw what he's capable of, and that was without carrying the full load. If the Jaguars decide to cut Fred Taylor this offseason, the sky's the limit for the man they call "Pinball."
10. Rudi Johnson
Although his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time since becoming a starter, RJ scored 12 TDs for the third straight year. If there's one thing fantasy owners love, it's consistency. With Carson Palmer more than a year removed from that ghastly knee injury, the Bengals' offense should be another high-scoring unit, giving Johnson lots of opportunities and making him a safe fantasy pick. Of course, all of this gets thrown out of the window if he gets arrested in an effort to fit in with his teammates.
OTHERS TO WATCH: Joseph Addai could start approaching Edgerrin James territory as the Colts continue to phase out Dominic Rhodes. ... It might be a year late, but Ronnie Brown could have that breakout season we were all expecting in '06. He looked good after coming back from that hand injury, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding his team (new coach, instability at QB, plus the impending second return of Ricky Williams) ... Clinton Portis' value is a little hard to peg right now, given the injuries and emergence of Ladell Betts. I could see him doing anything from reclaiming the sole starting job and being a top-five back, entering the most annoying platoon ever, or maybe even getting traded. ... Palmer is the next best thing after Manning as far as QBs are concerned. I know Drew Brees gained a lot of believers out there, but Palmer has a slightly higher ceiling. ...
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