Week 3 Sit 'Em: Eli, Greene, Wallace

- ELI MANNING vs. Tennessee: The Giants' offense is predicated on establishing the run, but it hasn't really worked so far. Even though Eli's got 5 TD passes in two games, figure on New York sticking to the ground game against a Titans secondary that's allowed just one passing TD and one play over 20 yards.

- SHONN GREENE at Miami: It was good to see Shonn getting more involved (15 carries) and being more productive (52 yards) in Week 2 after Week 1's bomb. Unfortunately, he hasn't been good enough, and LaDainian Tomlinson is still lurking in the Jets backfield.

- MIKE WALLACE at Tampa Bay: It sure looks like any value Wallace will have in 2010 will have to wait until Ben Roethlisberger's return - he has just 4 catches through 2 Big Ben-less games. The Steelers spun the wheel and came up with Charlie Batch at QB this week, and the Bucs' defenders haven't been pushovers this year.

Last week's picks

- Vince Young's stat line against the Steelers: 7-for-10, 66 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, one benching. Nailed it.

- Michael Crabtree's stat line against the Saints: One catch for 32 yards. Nailed it.

- Jahvid Best's stat line against the Eagles: 78 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards, 3 total TDs. Little off. I still stand by my prediction - the kid ran for 20 yards on 14 carries a week earlier in his debut! - but clearly I underestimated him.


The Associated Press

8/14 Sleeper of the Day: Mike Wallace

WR MIKE WALLACE, Steelers



You can insert your own 60 Minutes joke here, but this kid is no laughing matter. Bet you didn’t know his 19.4 yards per catch was tops among all WRs last year with 35 catches or more – and that was with Santonio Holmes still on the team. Wallace is assured of being a starter this year opposite Hines Ward and will serve as the offense’s primary deep threat after he made Holmes expendable during the offseason. He totaled 756 yards and scored 6 TDs as a rookie and has a chance to bump those numbers up to 1,000 yards and double-digit scores in 2010 as he takes up Holmes’ slack.

There is some risk with drafting Wallace - the absence of QB Ben Roethlisberger for as many as six games at the start of the season, Ward’s continued presence and the Steelers’ desire to return to their rushing roots. However, I still believe he has the skills and the opportunity to finish the year in the top 20 among fantasy receivers and is a future WR1 even though he’s currently being drafted as a WR3. There’s big potential here, and it's only a matter of time before he realizes it. Tick, tick, tick, tick ...

Sit 'Em: Week 3

- CARSON PALMER vs. Pittsburgh: Carson's had his share of trouble with the Steelers over the years (who hasn't?). He didn't play against them last year but threw just 1 TD against Pittsburgh in two games in 2007. And the Steelers' D is pretty good again.

- JOSEPH ADDAI vs. Arizona: This dude's act is getting old: 74 yards rushing in two games. He also had only 6 carries on Monday night against Miami. And the Cardinals' run defense has been quite good so far. Get ready, Donald Brown.

- ROY WILLIAMS vs. Carolina: Is this guy really a No. 1 WR? Is he a fantasy starter? Based on last week's one-catch effort, the answer right now is no. Put him on the shelf until further notice.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Devery Henderson had a ho-hum 3 catches for 71 yards last week.

- Pierre Thomas had only one catch for -4 yards and still hasn't carried the ball this year. His knee injury has made him a huge bust so far.

- Ben Roethlisberger threw for 221 yards and 1 TD against Chicago.

Sit 'Em: Week 2

- WR DEVERY HENDERSON vs. Eagles: Last week's 103-yard, one-TD game was sweet, but we've seen that before out of this dude. Last year he only had one 100-yard game, in Week 4, and then he never caught more than 3 passes in a game after that (and had only one more TD). In other words, he's a boom-or-bust guy, and my guess is after last week's boom against the Lions he goes bust against Philly.

- RB PIERRE THOMAS vs. Eagles: He was likely a high pick in your league and probably your No. 2 RB, but you'll have to wait another week to collect on your investment. Too many strikes against him - he's still hampered by a knee injury, replacement Mike Bell played very well in his stead, and the Eagles should be tough against the run.

- QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER vs. Bears: Week 1's ridiculous numbers notwithstanding, the Steelers would love to get their running game going this week. And Chicago's no slouch against the pass - take away Aaron Rodgers' late 50-yard TD bomb last week and Da Bears held the Packers QB to 134 passing yards and no scores for the majority of the game. Expect Big Ben's numbers to be a little smaller this week.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Lee Evans had just a measley 3 catches for 25 yards in a loss to the Patriots. Thanks for playing, guy.

- Eli Manning threw for 256 yards and a TD against Washington. Solid but not start-worthy.

- Knowshon Moreno had only 8 carries for 19 yards in his pro debut.

Titans-Steelers thoughts

Random thoughts from a fantasy perspective on last night's NFL season opener:


- Don't be too discouraged by Chris Johnson's meager rushing totals (15 carries, 57 yards), especially if you spent a first-round pick on him like I did. He'll be fine - it just so happens he had his toughest matchup of the season in Week 1.

- Do be discouraged by Willie Parker's meager rushing totals (13 carries, 19 yards - 1.5 yards per carry). The Titans are tough, but the Steelers have had trouble running the ball dating back to last year. Mewelde Moore (5 carries, 8 yards, 1.6 ypc) and Rashard Mendenhall (4 carries, 6 yards, 1.5 ypc) didn't fare any better. This could be a recurring problem.

- The Steelers' ground game deficiencies are good news for Ben Roethlisberger (a whopping 43 pass attempts) and receivers Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (more than 100 yards receiving apiece).

- Justin Gage (7 catches, 78 yards, TD) is clearly Kerry Collins' go-to option through the air, but rookie Kenny Britt (4 catches, 85 yards, 21.3 ypc) showed some intriguing big play potential for the Titans - more than high-priced offseason acquisition Nate Washington (1 catch, 8 yards).

Favre's fantasy outlook

Just when you thought it was safe to rank your fantasy QBs ... Brett Favre is back.

Remember this?



Forget it.

And this?



Never happened.

The old guy's latest return to the NFL shouldn't shake up things too much. If there's anything his 2008 campaign with the Jets taught us, it's that Favre is simply an average QB at this point (22 TDs, 22 INTs), one who is still capable of putting points on the board but is also a major injury risk. At age 39 (40 in October), that's to be expected.

The move to Minnesota shouldn't drastically alter his output, either. He's got some nice weapons at WR (Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin), but then, he had some in New York too. He'll obviously have a stronger running game to rely on - maybe the league's best with Adrian Peterson toting the rock - but that just means he won't have to wing it as much as he has in years past, something which actually helped pad his fantasy stats in years past.

I'm amending my 2009 QB rankings to put Favre at No. 18, which makes him a low-level No. 2 QB in most 10-team leagues. In other words, he might make for a decent spot starter, but you can't rely on him to carry a team, and I wouldn't take him over younger, healthier, steadier veterans (Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck) or less established QBs who have more upside (Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton).

Week 15: Who to start, sit in playoffs

So you’re in the playoffs.

Congratulations. Would you like a medal?

Fact is, making the fantasy football postseason is a nice accomplishment, but this is no time to rest on your laurels and pat yourself on the back. There’s more work to be done and tough decisions to make before you can call yourself a champ.

Here’s some advice to help you keep this thing rolling:

START ’EM


g RB Dominic Rhodes vs. Detroit: Sure, Joseph Addai is the Indianapolis Colts’ “starter,” but he’s a bit banged-up, and Rhodes has seen an increased workload the past few weeks. Plus, he’s playing the Lions, who let another “backup,” Chester Taylor, have a nice day last week.

g RB Derrick Ward at Dallas: Brandon Jacobs says he’ll play despite a sore knee, but I could see the New York Giants giving Ward lots of touches to help keep the big guy fresh for the postseason.

g RB Sammy Morris at Oakland: He’s back in the mix as the New England Patriots’ top tailback, so you can assume at least 10 touches and perhaps a score like the past two weeks.

g RB Steve Slaton vs. Tennessee: Don’t let the Titans’ run defense scare you from using a kid who’s rushed for 479 yards and three TDs in his past four games. Oh, and he had 116 yards and a TD the first time his Houston Texans played the Colts this year.

g QB Tyler Thigpen vs. San Diego: After a so-so effort last week at Denver (187 yards, TD), raise your expectations against a pretty bad Chargers pass defense.

g QB Donovan McNabb vs. Cleveland: He’s elevated his game since his competence and brainpower were called into question a few weeks ago. Expect him to light up a Browns team in disarray.

g WR Reggie Williams vs. Green Bay: The Jacksonville Jaguars receiver is at least a No. 3 receiver this week given Matt Jones’ suspension and the Packers’ general ineptitude the past few weeks.

g WR Devin Hester vs. New Orleans: The Chicago Bears’ most dangerous weapon could break off a few big plays against a Saints’ D that’s given up 20 receiving TDs.

g WR Brandon Marshall at Carolina: The Denver Broncos are running out of running backs, so they might opt to throw it a lot against a secondary that’s been torched to the tune of 274, 293 and 298 yards the past three weeks.

SIT ’EM

g RB Steven Jackson vs. Seattle: I understand starting him if you don’t have a better option, but Jackson should no longer be treated like a No. 1 fantasy back. His lack of involvement in the passing game and his so-so rushing totals have been killing teams lately.

g RB Willie Parker at Baltimore: I don’t like the timeshare situation unfolding with Pittsburgh Steelers teammate Mewelde Moore, and I certainly don’t like the matchup.

g RB Larry Johnson vs. San Diego: After a poor effort last week at Denver (11 carries, 36 yards), lower your expectations against a pretty good run-stopping Chargers defense.

g RB Tashard Choice vs. New York Giants: The Dallas Cowboys rookie will be a popular pickup this week after what he did against a tough Pittsburgh Steelers run defense (88 rushing yards, 78 receiving yards). But if Marion Barber can go and wants to shut Jerry Jones up, Choice returns to relative obscurity.

g QB Matt Schaub vs. Tennessee: Don’t overreact to last week’s air raid on Green Bay. Schaub was terrible against the Titans in Week 3 (188 yards, zero TDs, three interceptions) and isn’t worth the risk this week.

g QB Ben Roethlisberger at Baltimore: If your idea of a good fantasy outing for your QB is about 200 yards and maybe a TD, Big Ben is your guy this week. If you have another QB on your roster who’s capable of more, plant Roethlisberger on your bench for this slugfest.

g WR Laveranues Coles vs. Buffalo: The veteran has combined for three catches and seven yards in his past two games. Do you dare start him this week?

g WR Domenik Hixon at Dallas: Forget about last week’s costly drop, as bad as it looked. It was unfair to expect the guy to just step in and replace Plaxico Burress, and he’s been too inconsistent to warrant a start at this point.

g WR Chris Chambers at Kansas City: He’s been an afterthought in the San Diego Chargers’ offense lately, with just one catch in the past two weeks. Sure, the matchup is good this Sunday, but you can do better.

Using the NFL schedule to your advantage

As the days get colder and the NFL moves into Week 12, our thoughts begin to turn toward playoff time.

Every week is critical now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel and begin to position our teams for a postseason run. It’s time to take a serious look at the remainder of the NFL schedule and the matchups that will help you maximize your fantasy team’s potential.

I often use statistical rankings as a guide for which teams are the toughest and easiest to run and pass against. Of course anything can happen on any given week, but a quarterback who faces a few of the league’s 10 weakest pass defenses in the coming weeks is more likely to outperform his peers and give your team a boost in these critical games.

I’ve analyzed the schedule and crunched the numbers for you. Here are some of the players with the best and worst matchups in the next few weeks:

FULL SPEED AHEAD

g Matt Ryan and Roddy White of the Atlanta Falcons bobbled last week’s potential game-winning bomb, but after a tough test this week against Carolina, they should shine against San Diego and New Orleans in Weeks 13 and 14.

g Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte’s been on a decent roll lately. That should continue this week against St. Louis and pick up again when he closes out the season vs. Green Bay and Houston.

g Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo’s pinky shouldn’t be much of a problem against San Francisco this week or Seattle the next - assuming he's done hanging out with homeless dudes.

g Jamal Lewis hasn’t cracked 90 rushing yards in a game this season for the Cleveland Browns. His best chances come when his team hosts Houston this week and Indianapolis the next — then the fun’s over at Tennessee.

g As if the Titans’ running duo of LenDale White and Chris Johnson wasn’t already valuable, check out these upcoming opponents: Detroit (Week 13), Cleveland (Week 14), Houston (Week 15) and Indianapolis (Week 17).

g Miami Dolphins QB Chad Pennington gets to air it out against St. Louis, San Francisco, Kansas City and his old team, the Jets, in four of the season’s final five weeks.

g Jeff Garcia of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could do some damage against Detroit this week, New Orleans the next and San Diego’s league-worst pass defense in Week 16, aka the Super Bowl in most fantasy leagues.

g Brett Favre and his receiving corps could put on a show against Denver (Week 13), San Francisco (Week 14) and Seattle (Week 16).

g Buffalo’s Trent Edwards and Lee Evans have been relegated to the bench in most leagues. But they might be able to get back on track thanks to a schedule that includes Kansas City, San Francisco, the New York Jets and Denver.

NOT SO FAST

g Marion Barber deserves the benefit of the doubt, but his Cowboys face a brutal stretch of run-stuffers starting in Week 13 — Pittsburgh, the Giants and Baltimore.

g Detroit Lions rookie RB Kevin Smith also must run a brutal three-game gauntlet starting this week — Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota.

g It looks like Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is starting to break out of his funk, and facing Cincinnati this week might continue the trend. But after that he meets four brick walls known as New England, Dallas, Baltimore and Tennessee.

g You hardly ever sit Saints QB Drew Brees, but be warned: He faces two of the league’s top five pass defenses (Green Bay, Tampa Bay) the next two weeks.

g Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis has been excellent this year when healthy. So he might just be a little less excellent against the Giants and Ravens in Weeks 13 and 14.

Can you trust your quarterback?

In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.

By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.

The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.

As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.

Here’s how I break it down:

QBs YOU CAN TRUST

Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.

Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.

Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.

Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.

Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.

Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.

Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.

Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.

QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST

Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.