8/15 Bust of the Day: Tom Brady

QB TOM BRADY, Patriots




Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.

But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.

Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.

Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.

That's all I'm sayin'.

Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

Start 'Em: Week 3

Need help picking a winner this week? Read on ...



- FELIX JONES vs. Carolina: After a quiet Week 1, Jones erupted in Week 2 (96 yards, TD) and showed off the big-play potential we knew he possessed. Now he runs against a surprisingly poor Panthers rush defense, and Marion Barber (quad) might not even suit up.

- VINCENT JACKSON vs. Miami: He's scored a TD each week so far, and he and QB Philip Rivers are coming off a huge game against Baltimore. Plus, Miami has given up more than 500 yards and 4 TDs through the air in two games.

- TIM HIGHTOWER vs. Indianapolis: I still believe Beanie Wells, not Hightower, will end up the most valuable Cardinals back at season's end. But until Beanie can cure his fumbilitis (two last week), Hightower's the man. He's been involved in the passing game and gets the red-zone carries.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Percy Harvin got seven touches and scored for the second straight week. He'll be a good flex option again this week against San Fran.

- Antwaan Randle El didn't do much (4 catches, 39 yards) against the Rams, but neither did any of the other Redskins really. Despite the poor showing I'd still be tempted to use him against Detroit this week.

- Correll Buckhalter matched Knowshon Moreno's output on the ground (76 yards for Buckhalter, 75 for Moreno) on half the carries. Granted, he did have a 45-yard TD run, which will help pad the stats, but no one's complaining. Buckhalter also caught one pass for 30 yards.

Week 2 recap

Plenty of monster (and not-so-monster) performances to dissect from Week 2:

-Hats off to Tennessee's Chris Johnson for looking very much like a top-3 running back after a lackluster Week 1: 16 carries, 197 yards, 2 TDs; 9 catches, 87 yards, TD. Just an awesome performance from a super-talented player.

-Another Johnson came up big Sunday, too: Houston's Andre Johnson, in the same game (10 catches, 149 yards, 2 TDs). I had the pleasure of starting both of them on the same team in one of my leagues. I won.

- Things aren't going as well for Houston's Steve Slaton, who now has 51 total rushing yards in two games and 0 TDs. The good news is after opening the year against two challenging defenses, things should get a little easier in the coming weeks (Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona).

- Frank Gore actually broke the 200-yard barrier (207 on just 16 carries) and scored twice. He also caught 5 passes for 39 yards for good measure and put the league on notice that the Niners' run game is no joke.

- Jake Delhomme wasn't great against Atlanta but he'll hold onto his starting job for the time being, which is good news for Steve Smith (8 catches, 131 yards) and his owners.

- Drew Brees halved last week's TD output but was still excellent (311 yards, 3 TDs), utilizing all his available weapons. And Mike Bell continues to run well (17 carries, 86 yards, TD) with Pierre Thomas on the shelf.

- Big effort from Cedric Benson for the Bengals (29 carries, 141 yards), but don't get too excited - he's got some brutal matchups on the horizon (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice and Chicago) in the next seven weeks.

- Aaron Rodgers hasn't lit it up the way I expected - two TDs in two games now. It doesn't help when you're sacked 5 times and your best WR, Greg Jennings, is held catchless. Here's hoping Rodgers and the Packers can do some damage against St. Louis.

- Buffalo's Fred Jackson is the real deal (163 rush yards, 25 receiving yards) and is a must-start next week against New Orleans. Does Marshawn Lynch HAVE to come back?

- Philip Rivers did just fine without a running game (436 yards, 2 TDs). Does LaDainian Tomlinson HAVE to come back?

8/27 Bust of the Day: Kurt Warner

QB KURT WARNER, ARIZONA CARDINALS

I know, I know. He threw for 30 TDs last year and he's got the league's best WR tandem in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He's a top-five fantasy QB according to most fantasy pundits. But not me.

I put Warner at No. 6, and here's why: He's 38 years old, he had offseason hip surgery, and he's tanked before, due to both injury and poor play. A recent report by ESPN’s John Clayton said Warner’s surgically repaired left hip “hurts only when he stands or walks.” So does my grandfather's, and I'm not picking him for my fantasy team.

I don't hate Warner. I think he could have another good year and help out your fantasy team. But I'm a little wary of spending a high pick on him - I've seen him go as high as the fourth round - when I might be able to wait another round and get a younger, healthier guy like Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers, both of whom I think will outperform everyone's favorite former grocery bagger. If that hip still bothers Warner this year, or he and the Cards suffer the same letdown as other recent Super Bowl runners-up, or Warner's deal with the devil simply runs out (again) and he reverts back to the same mistake-prone, aging QB who lost his job in St. Louis and New York - well, I don't really want my fantasy team's success hinging on that.

Can you trust your quarterback?

In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.

By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.

The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.

As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.

Here’s how I break it down:

QBs YOU CAN TRUST

Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.

Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.

Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.

Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.

Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.

Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.

Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.

Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.

QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST

Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.

WEEK 2 - Sunday Recap

- The Rams lose their third straight to the 49ers? Unacceptable. I know they're still getting used to this whole wacky "balanced" offense thing, but they'll eventually need to find the end zone. Owners of Steven Jackson (112 yards a game) and Jeff Wilkins (eight FGs) aren't complaining, but Marc Bulger hasn't exactly lived up to expectations. Of course, six sacks allowed only complicated things, and Orlando Pace's concussion didn't help either.

- The Larry Johnson crisis mode can be put to rest. Some TDs would be nice, but 167 total yards in a game is fine by me. Herm Edwards has his flaws (like an inability to tell time, for one), but he's no dummy.

- Clinton Portis, please hurry back. Some of us were counting on you.

- Philip Rivers has actually looked OK, but keep in mind playing the Raiders and Titans could make anyone look good. And it helps if your defense allows three points per game. I'm not sold on him as for fantasy purposes.

- Aaron Brooks was awful again, fumbling twice before leaving with a sprained rotator cuff. He might not have a job when the Raiders return from next week's bye, even though Andrew Walter wasn't that great against the Ravens D in relief. For the love of everything holy, avoid this situation at all costs. And if you own LaMont Jordan, I feel your pain.

- Warrick Dunn doesn't get the fantasy respect he deserves. He's an every-week starter now that the Falcons are running wild. And maybe that Michael Vick is OK after all.

- Hope Atlanta's Michael Koenen isn't your fantasy kicker. Because he might have just become your fantasy punter.

- Chad Pennington is looking more and more like a solid fantasy backup and spot starter. Two TDs and 306 passing yards against the Pats is nothing to sniff at, and the Jets can't run the ball.

- Tough break (literally) for T.O. owners. Think about Chicago's Bernard Berrian (five catches, 89 yards, TD vs. Detroit), the Jets' Jerico Cotchery (six catches, 121 yards, TD vs. New England), or New Orleans' Marques Colston (four catches, 58 yards, TD vs. Green Bay) as fill-ins.

- Will there be a run on Bears TEs after breakout games for John Gilmore (two TDs) and Desmond Clark (TD)? Not likely ... but Rex Grossman showed he's no Kyle Orton and deserves a little fantasy consideration, at least when he's up against suspect Ds.

- What's up with Joey Galloway? No catches one week, nine for 161 yards the next. Chris Simms and the Bucs need to get their act together quickly. Maybe Cadillac Williams will be able to crack the 40-yard mark against a suddenly run-soft Carolina D in Week 3.

- Nice game by David Carr! Three TDs, 22-for-26 for 219 yards ... did you start him? Of course you didn't.

- Eli Manning is coming of age. After seeing what he's done against the Colts and Eagles, I wouldn't hesitate to start him against the Seahawks on Sunday.

- Reuben Droughns hasn't looked so hot, and he gets to face the Ravens next week. I tabbed him as a bust in '05, but maybe I was a year early.

- Brett Favre put up some nice numbers (340 yards, three TDs) against the Saints. That can happen when you attempt 55 passes in a game. He's still serviceable as a fantasy QB against soft defenses, and you might consider starting him against the Lions after seeing Grossman carve them up on Sunday.

- Hey Roy Williams: Shut up and play.

- Start Daunte Culpepper the next two weeks. Don't laugh. If he can't get it done against the Titans and Texans, he's finished.

- A quick thought from the college ranks .... Note to teams playing at Louisville: Stop stomping on the Cardinals' midfield logo. Rutgers did it last year and lost 56-5. Miami did it this year and lost 31-7. Respect Papa John's Stadium.