8/23 Bust of the Day: Larry Fitzgerald

WR LARRY FITZGERALD, Cardinals

I don't doubt Fitzgerald's talent. I'm not saying he won't be a No. 1 fantasy wideout this season. But to quote just about every character in the Star Wars movies, I have a bad feeling about this.

Maybe it's the fact Matt Leinart is taking over the reins as Cards QB from the prolific Kurt Warner. Maybe it's the sprained right knee Fitzgerald's already dealing with this preseason. Maybe it's the residue of the Madden Curse that never really struck him last year (but cost co-cover boy Troy Polamalu most of his season). You know what they say about karma ...

But seriously, there are plenty of reasons to worry about Fitzgerald this year. He's not going to have Anquan Boldin around anymore to put pressure on opposing secondaries. And you may remember Fitzgerald's last subpar season (946 yards, 6 TDs in 13 games in 2006) just happened to be the year Arizona was trying to break in Leinart as their starting QB. Now, Leinart is a better QB today then he was as a rookie (presumably) - but can he replace Warner's production? Will more targets come Fitzgerald's way with Boldin out of the picture, or will Arizona just lean more heavily on Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the running game?

That's an awful lot of question marks for a WR who I've seen go in the first round in some mock drafts. I still don't have a problem making Fitzgerald my No. 1 WR ... but I'm not sure I'd take him over Andre Johnson or Randy Moss, or even Calvin Johnson. I'm labeling him a bust because I don't think he's the shoe-in for 1,300 yards or double-digit TDs many are tabbing him to be.

8/3 Bust of the Day: Greg Olsen

TE GREG OLSEN, BEARS

Trivia time! Of course you remember the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams offense of 1999-2001, right? Kurt Warner. Marshall Faulk. Torry Holt. Isaac Bruce. Az-Zahir Hakim. But who were the tight ends?

Give up?

Remember Roland Williams and Ernie Conwell?

Didn’t think so.


The reason I bring it up is because the architect of those offenses, Mike Martz, is now the offensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears, which spells bad news for tight end Greg Olsen. Martz simply doesn’t utilize his tight ends as pass-catchers. He didn't in those halcyon days in St. Louis, or any other stop along the way. Want more evidence? When Martz spent 2008 as the 49ers’ O.C., Vernon Davis caught 31 passes. Davis had 52 catches the year before Martz got there, and 78 the year after he left.

Olsen, a terrific talent and great target at 6-foot-4, was supposed to have his breakout last year with Jay Cutler at the helm of the Bears' offense, and he did lead the team with 60 catches. But there’s a good chance Olsen will regress under Martz, who’s already brought in TE Brandon Manumaleuna from his later Rams days to – you guessed it – block. That's a shame, because Olsen has top-10 talent but will hard pressed to be a top-20 performer this season.

Kurt Warner: An appreciation

The football world said goodbye to Kurt Warner last week, with the Cardinals QB calling it a career. And what a fascinating career it's been.



Warner's success story is one of the unlikeliest the NFL's ever seen, as he's gone from small-college QB to grocery bagger to Arena Football League and NFL Europe standout to unknown third-stringer to Super Bowl and league MVP. He also put up some of the sickest numbers the fantasy football era has ever seen.

Warner's out-of-nowhere MVP season of 1999 was almost too good to be true: He passed for 4,353 yards and 41 TDs that year (only three other QBs - Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Dan Marino - have ever reached the 40-TD plateau). And he was just as remarkable in his 2001 MVP campaign, this time throwing for 4,830 yards (third best in NFL history) and completing 68 percent of his passes with 36 TDs.

Supposedly there are no second acts in American lives, but that's not true in Warner's case. We thought the magic was gone after two injury plagued/ineffective years in St. Louis in 2002-03, and the QB seemed destined to be just a mediocre fantasy afterthought with the Giants (2004) and then in Arizona (2005). But everything clicked in 2007 with the Cardinals, and Warner once again became a fantasy stud. For three more years, he gave us star-quality stats - and then he was gone.

It's too bad the fantasy season doesn't include the NFL playoffs, because Warner's Super Bowl performances - three of the greatest the big game has ever seen - would have single-handedly won you a fantasy championship.

We'll miss you, Kurt. And so will our fantasy teams.

What the Mike Martz hiring means to you

The mad scientist is back in the NFL.

The Chicago Bears hired Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator on Monday in the hopes of reviving a stagnant offense that was a huge disappointment in 2009.


Martz, best known as the offensive guru behind the St. Louis Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" of the early part of the last decade, had been out of football last year. The move is particularly significant for fantasy owners because Martz, unlike some other first-time coordinators we see get hired from time to time, brings a signature offensive style to the table. Thus, we should have a good idea what to expect out of Bears skill players in 2010.

We all know what Martz accomplished with the Rams - a pass-heavy offense based on precision and timing that set league record books ablaze and made stars out of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.

It'd be hard to expect the same acrobatics out of the Bears offense in 2010, so let's take a closer look at Martz's accomplishments as an offensive coordinator after his fallout in St. Louis. Martz spent 2006-07 as an assistant in Detroit, a team with a serious talent deficit. Still, he helped QB Jon Kitna twice pass for 4,000 yards in a season. He coached WR Roy Williams to his best pro season (1,310 yards, 7 TDs in 2006). He squeezed a career-high 61 catches and 520 receiving yards out of RB Kevin Jones that year. He made unheralded WRs Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey fantasy relevant (and they haven't been heard from since).

Sure, the Lions never became world-beaters under Martz's guidance, but he did get production out of players who've done little or nothing otherwise in their NFL careers. In Martz's next stop, in San Francisco in 2008, he helped seven players rack up more than 300 receiving yards. Again, there was no Super Bowl appearance for the 49ers and no records were set, but Martz's track record stayed intact.

So we know what to expect out of the Bears in 2010 under Martz: Jay Cutler will get back to being a 4,000-yard passer and throw more TDs. Matt Forte will continue to get a lot of pass-catching opportunities (although his rushing stats aren't likely to improve). And the Bears' young receivers - Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu - should all see spikes in their stats. There's more raw talent in the Windy City than at Martz's last two stops, and the mad scientist may be able to do some real damage this time.

Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

Start 'Em: Week 15

- QB KURT WARNER vs. Detroit: You may be considering benching Warner after last week's stinkbomb in San Fran. Don't. As ESPN.com reminds us, Warner suffered through a six-turnover game in Week 8, and he followed it up with a stretch of 12 TDs vs. 1 turnover in the following 4 games. Plus, it's the Lions. Don't overthink this.

- RB KNOWSHON MORENO vs. Oakland: The rookie's had 19, 21 and 23 carries in the past three weeks. With that type of workload, Moreno should repeat the kind of success he had against the Raiders earlier this year (90 yards, TD).

- WR ROBERT MEACHEM vs. Dallas: Don't let last week's so-so game (4 catches, 57 yards) dissuade you from starting him this week. Meachem's become an important part of the Saints' offense, and I don't think the Cowboys' secondary can keep him out of the end zone.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Jamaal Charles had his best game of the year against Buffalo: 20 carries, 143 yards, TD; 7 catches, 38 yards.

- Ryan Grant had his second-best game of the year against Chicago: 20 carries, 137 yards, 2 TDs.

- Kenny Britt had 2 catches for 75 yards and no TDs. Can't win 'em all.

Photo by The Associated Press

Sit 'Em: Week 14

- RB BEANIE WELLS at San Francisco: The rookie's had a rough two weeks - he hasn't reached 30 yards on the ground in the past two games - and the Niners own a top-5 rush defense. Beanie's benched this week (but I'm licking my chops over the next two matchups with Detroit and St. Louis).

- WR STEVE BREASTON at San Francisco: I just can't trust him after last week's 1-catch disaster. He's always been worth a look as a flex player when he's hot, but he's ice cold right now.

- WR SANTANA MOSS at Oakland: He hasn't given us much to get excited about this year (only 1 game with more than 75 receiving yards), and he'll likely be blanketed by Pro Bowl corner Nnamdi Asomugha on Sunday. No thanks.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Not only did Kurt Warner suit up despite recent concussion troubles, but he aired it out for 285 yards and 3 TDs in the Cardinals' surprising thrashing of the previously once-beaten Vikings. Couldn't have been more wrong.

- Brandon Jacobs was bottled up for 39 rushing yards on 13 carries as I expected. Only problem is he ran for a TD and scored another on a 74-yard catch on a screen pass nobody - including the Cowboys defense - expected. Wrong again.

- Willis McGahee vultured another TD to complete a trifecta of wrongness. He also had 4 carries for -4 yards.

Sit 'Em: Week 13

- QB KURT WARNER vs. Minnesota: The Cardinals are being cautious with their QB's concussion, and rightfully so. There's no need for them to play him, and even if they do, the Vikings defense could cause him even more headaches. It's not worth the risk, especially if he ends up being a late scratch again this week.

- RB BRANDON JACOBS vs. Dallas: There are a number of reasons not to like him this week - he hasn't topped 80 yards in a game since Week 8, he's scored only 3 times this year, and Dallas held him to 58 yards and no TDs in their first meeting. Plus, in the past, Jacobs has been at his best when he's used in tandem with another back, but second-stringer Ahmad Bradshaw has a bum ankle and third-stringer DJ Ware won't play. You're probably stuck with Jacobs as your No. 2 back regardless, but don't expect too much out of him.

- RB WILLIS McGAHEE at Green Bay: McGahee's had double-digit carries only one time since Week 2, and he's scored only once since Week 4 (although that TD happened to come last week). He's not getting enough reps to warrant a start, especially against the Packers' fourth-ranked rush defense.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Michael Turner tried to make a go of it Sunday, but he managed just 33 yards on 12 carries before his ankle sprain gave out on him.

- Bernard Berrian made 6 catches for 74 yards but continued his streak of not scoring every other week like I mentioned.

- Austin Collie had 4 catches for 70 yards. Decent.

8/27 Bust of the Day: Kurt Warner

QB KURT WARNER, ARIZONA CARDINALS

I know, I know. He threw for 30 TDs last year and he's got the league's best WR tandem in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He's a top-five fantasy QB according to most fantasy pundits. But not me.

I put Warner at No. 6, and here's why: He's 38 years old, he had offseason hip surgery, and he's tanked before, due to both injury and poor play. A recent report by ESPN’s John Clayton said Warner’s surgically repaired left hip “hurts only when he stands or walks.” So does my grandfather's, and I'm not picking him for my fantasy team.

I don't hate Warner. I think he could have another good year and help out your fantasy team. But I'm a little wary of spending a high pick on him - I've seen him go as high as the fourth round - when I might be able to wait another round and get a younger, healthier guy like Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers, both of whom I think will outperform everyone's favorite former grocery bagger. If that hip still bothers Warner this year, or he and the Cards suffer the same letdown as other recent Super Bowl runners-up, or Warner's deal with the devil simply runs out (again) and he reverts back to the same mistake-prone, aging QB who lost his job in St. Louis and New York - well, I don't really want my fantasy team's success hinging on that.

Game-planning for Week 17? Good luck

Week 17 of the NFL season is probably the trickiest one to predict from a fantasy standpoint.

You’ve got a handful of teams that already have their playoff positioning locked in. Will they opt to rest their key starters? We saw how that strategy backfired on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. So do teams instead go the New York Giants’ route and give 100 percent in a “meaningless” finale? The Giants players credited their Week 17 loss to the New England Patriots last year as a catalyst for their Super Bowl run.

NFL coaches face some serious conundrums when it comes to resting starters who are nursing injuries and risking their teams losing momentum or getting out of synch come playoff time. And then there are the non-playoff teams: Are they motivated to play spoiler or end the season on a high note, or have they already mentally packed their bags for some sunny offseason locale?

It’s an interesting dilemma, and it makes for some difficult roster calls. Here’s some advice for those whose fantasy teams are still alive this week:

g The Arizona Cardinals clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, but I’d still expect to see at least a few quarters out of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and the still-healing Anquan Boldin against Seattle. Those three need to get their aerial act together if they want to avoid getting bounced in the first round, so count on them seeing significant time against a bad Seahawks defense coming off an emotional win with little left to play for.

g I’m avoiding Marion Barber and his toe troubles this week unless I have no other choice — and that includes Dallas Cowboys rookie backup Tashard Choice, who’s run for 88, 91 and 90 yards against three of the league’s toughest run defenses the past three weeks.

g Use caution if you’re starting any Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans, as both of those teams already have their playoff spots locked in. A quarter or two of Peyton Manning is probably too good to pass up, but I’d be a little hesitant about starting anyone else in that game.

g Start all your noteworthy San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos in what will be a win-or-go-home, defensively challenged shootout: Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal. Just bench Broncos RB Tatum Bell — the position’s cursed this year.

g The New Orleans Saints are out of it, but Drew Brees is only 402 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas are worth starting, even against the Carolina Panthers, whose playoff positioning has yet to be determined.

g If the Detroit Lions want to avoid an 0-16 season (let’s assume they do) they would be wise to utilize running back Kevin Smith against Green Bay. The rookie matched his single-season high for carries (24) last week and had his second-best rushing total (112) along with a TD. With enough work he could match those numbers against the Packers’ so-so run D.

g If last week taught us anything, it’s to start your New England Patriots no matter what the weather forecast looks like. QB Matt Cassel was simply awesome in the snow, and with a playoff spot still a possibility I expect he and the Pats’ passing game will crush the Buffalo Bills.

g This sounds crazy after the Giants just rushed for 301 yards, but you may want to avoid all of Big Blue’s running backs this week. New York has nothing to play for against the Minnesota Vikings, so they could opt to rest Brandon Jacobs and his ailing knee — which limits Derrick Ward’s threat as a change-of-pace back. Ahmad Bradshaw might end up seeing the most touches, but he faces a stout run defense and a team that still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot.

Your guide to success in important Week 14

Forget about putting up the Christmas lights this weekend and tell your significant other you’re taking a pass on that shopping trip.

This is a crucial week in fantasy football, either the regular season finale or the opening of the playoffs. We can’t be bothered with trivial stuff like holiday preparations, household chores and human interaction. It’s Week 14! Enough nonsense . . . we’ve got more important things to think about, like who to start and who to sit this week.

START ’EM

g RB Adrian Peterson at Detroit: The biggest no-brainer in the history of no-brainers.

g RB Larry Johnson at Denver: He torched the Broncos for 198 yards and two TDs in Week 4.

g RB DeAngelo Williams vs. Tampa Bay: I make it a point to never sit a running back coming off a four-TD game. Call me crazy.

g RB Brian Westbrook at New York Giants: See above.

g QB Matt Cassel at Seattle: Welcome back to reality, son. Now go out there and carve up that Seahawks “secondary.”

g QB Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis: If he doesn’t throw for at least 300 yards and two TDs, I’ll buy you a drink.

g WR Bernard Berrian at Detroit: His best fantasy output of the season was against — you guessed it — the Lions in Week 6 (five catches, 131 yards, TD).

g WR Lance Moore vs. Atlanta: Has caught six TDs in his past five games and should continue the trend.

g WR Torry Holt at Arizona: He has only two TD receptions this year, but one came against the generous Cardinals pass defense in Week 9.

SIT ’EM

g RB Jamal Lewis at Tennessee: I’m no defensive coordinator, but do you think the Titans might stack the box this week with Ken Dorsey playing QB for Cleveland?

g RB Clinton Portis at Baltimore: It pains me to say this because I know he’s carried you (and Washington) all year. But Portis is banged-up, coming off his worst game of the year (22 yards) and facing the Ravens. That’s three strikes.

g RB Marion Barber at Pittsburgh: Uncertainty about his toe injury and the Steelers’ run defense make me very apprehensive this week.

g RB Willis McGahee vs. Washington: How can you start a guy who suited up the week before but had no carries?

g QB Tony Romo at Pittsburgh: Games against San Francisco and Seattle were walks in the park, but did you see what the Steelers did to poor Cassel last week? Factor in the prospect of no Barber in the backfield and bad weather in the Steel City, and I’m considering other options.

g QB Jake Delhomme vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs are simply too tough. There are at least 20 other quarterbacks with more upside this week.

g WR Braylon Edwards at Tennessee: No way am I putting my playoff chances in this guy’s hands. Or to be more accurate, letting them bounce off this guy’s fingertips.

g WR Chad Johnson at Indianapolis: There’s a big difference between doing funny things in the end zone and having an absolute joke of a season. I bet I could close my eyes, pick up a random receiver off the waiver wire and get more production out of him this week than Ocho Cinco.

g WR Roy Williams at Pittsburgh: This guy’s stock has plummeted more than — well, it’s just as bad as all the stocks out there in real life, I guess. But there’s no reason to start him in any fantasy league this week.

Touchdowns and turkey: Perfect together

The NFL’s Thanksgiving Day games aren’t all that intriguing, but fantasy players won’t complain. We get three midweek matchups, all seen on national TV (by those of us lucky enough to get the NFL Network, anyway) and all with a fair share of fantasy-relevant stars involved.

The holiday slate features a battle of the birds (Eagles vs. Cardinals), and quite a few turkeys (Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, the 0-11 Detroit Lions). We’ll all be watching the games - between naps, of course - and trying to get our teams off to a good start in Week 13. So in that spirit, let’s break down the matchups from a fantasy perspective:

TENNESSEE AT DETROIT

Kerry Collins, NFL MVP? I’m warming up to the idea.

Kerry Collins, fantasy starter? I’ll buy that too, at least for this week.

If there’s ever a time to start the old-timer, this is it. He’s coming off his three best efforts of the season, statistically speaking (six TDs in his past three games), and he’s facing a Lions defense that’s given up 18 scores through the air. Collins and top receiver Justin Gage are pretty decent options this week.

Even better options: The Titans’ dual rushing threat of Chris Johnson and LenDale White, going up against Detroit’s league-worst rush defense (166 yards allowed per game). Rising rookie star Johnson is an obvious must-start, but don’t let White’s one-carry, minus-one-yard, one-temper-tantrum effort last week scare you off. Coach Jeff Fisher will make sure White keeps his attitude in check, and the best way to do that is give him the rock early and often against a soft D.

As for the Lions, I like rookie Kevin Smith as a No. 2 running back this week since the Titans aren’t as good against the run as you might expect. They are, however, great against the pass, but I’d still start Calvin Johnson (a TD in six of his past seven games) and cross my fingers.

SEATTLE AT DETROIT

The Tony Romo Comeback Tour continues. Remember when America’s favorite advocate for the homeless tossed five TDs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2006 Turkey Day game? It wouldn’t surprise me if he came close to matching that against the Seahawks’ secondary. Romo and Terrell Owens (213 yards, TD) are clicking right now, so expect fireworks.

Marion Barber will find room to run, so start him with out hesitation. His Seahawks counterpart and former backfield mate, Julius Jones, will start and should have a little extra motivation, but I wouldn’t use him as anything more than a No. 3 RB or flex player if I could help it. And I’d avoid Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks receivers.

ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA

Speaking of extra motivation, McNabb should be out to prove his detractors wrong, and I’m expecting big things against a Cardinals defense that:

g Has allowed a league-high 22 passing touchdowns

g Has been burnt by the likes of Shaun Hill (two TDs) and Eli Manning (three TDs) in recent weeks, and

g Is traveling cross-country with a short week of practice.

Sounds like a recipe for a Thanksgiving treat from McNabb. I’d consider DeSean Jackson too if I’m short at wide receiver, and I’d take a long, hard look at a seriously banged-up Brian Westbrook as one of my RB options.

On the flip side, Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are on an absolute tear and cannot be benched. Steve Breaston is still getting looks but remains a fantasy No. 3 in most leagues. And Tim Hightower has been a boom-or-bust proposition in recent weeks, so start with caution.

Photos by The Associated Press

Leave your fantasy prejudices behind

There’s no room for bias or prejudice in fantasy sports.

As much as I personally loathe the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook have been very, very good to my fantasy teams over the years. And as loyal as I am to the New York Giants as a third-generation fan, I realize Eli Manning isn’t always the wisest fantasy choice (although he’s been pretty good so far for the 8-1 G-Men).

Biases and prejudices in fantasy don’t just extend to your favorite football team and its rivals. Sometimes we hold onto unfair opinions about individual players and teams, even when they run contrary to the facts.

Case in point: Kurt Warner. The knock on him for years is that he’s old, injury prone, fumble prone, and his best years were a product of Mike Martz’s system in St. Louis. Maybe there’s some truth to that, and that’s why Warner was passed over on draft day for a multitude of other quarterbacks, including teammate Matt Leinart, who is younger and more party prone.





But if you’ve seen Warner’s Arizona Cardinals play this year or checked the stat sheet, you’d see they are fourth in the league in pass attempts a game (342) but 20th in sacks allowed (16), a formula that has allowed Warner to stay upright, utilize his talented receiving corps and put together an MVP-caliber performance.



Letting go of your preconceived notions and trusting Warner as your every-week starter would be a wise move. And while you’re at it, here are some other old prejudices that need to be erased:

g Any QB would look good throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.

Still not sold on Warner, huh? Having Boldin and Fitzgerald certainly helps, but he’s also made third receiver Steve Breaston (seven catches, 121 yards last week) a legit fantasy pickup and fourth receiver Jerheme Urban (18 catches, two TDs in his past six games) a deep sleeper. So there.

g The Atlanta Falcons stink.

That was the consensus entering this season, and it scared most of us away from anyone wearing black and red other than tailback Michael Turner. But while Turner’s been a stud, Matt Ryan and Roddy White have blossomed into one of the league’s deadliest pass-catch combos in Ryan’s rookie season. All three of those guys are must-starts at this point, particularly against the woeful Denver Broncos defense this week. Even backup running back Jerious Norwood (105 total yards, TD last week) is capable of busting a big play or two.

g The Kansas City Chiefs stink.

OK, maybe this one’s true. But that doesn’t mean quarterback Tyler Thigpen isn’t worth your time. Thigpen, who started the year as KC’s third quarterback, is coming off a three-TD performance against the San Diego Chargers and now faces a New Orleans Saints defense that’s susceptible to the pass. Thigpen has spread the ball around the Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley, plus he’ll have the services of Larry Johnson this week to help take the pressure off through the running game.

Can you trust your quarterback?

In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.

By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.

The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.

As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.

Here’s how I break it down:

QBs YOU CAN TRUST

Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.

Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.

Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.

Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.

Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.

Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.

Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.

Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.

QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST

Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.

Beware of the dud

I was going to do a Week 14 recap, but why live in the past? If you're reading this, odds are your fantasy team is in the playoffs this week, so I'll do everything I can to get you prepared.

The following guys are setting off my dud radar, and I’d give serious thought to benching them unless I’m really stuck:




• Donovan McNabb is usually hurt around this time of year, so you can understand if he’s a little rusty against the Dallas Cowboys. It’s been a rough year for his Philadelphia Eagles.

• Kurt Warner has produced since taking over as the Arizona Cardinals’ starter, but do you really trust him with your fantasy life? Sure, he threw three TDs last week, but he was also picked off five times.

• Kansas City Chiefs rookie Kolby Smith rushed 13 times for 12 yards against the Denver Broncos, who can’t stop anybody. What makes you think he’ll fare better against the Tennessee Titans?

• Shaun Alexander’s been good for about 60 rushing yards a game this season. Start him if that’s what you’re into, but don’t expect anything special.

• I’ve seen enough touchdown-free games by Vince Young this year – six to be exact. Don’t let that happen to you this week. Start Cleo Lemon if you have to.

• Laurence Maroney and Donte’ Stallworth look like afterthoughts in the New England Patriots’ juggernaut offense. They should be fantasy afterthoughts too, even though their team won’t hold any punches against the New York Jets.

• I enjoy Maurice Jones-Drew’s highlights as much as the next guy, but would a 30-yard, no-TD game shock you this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers?

• It’s been an awful season for Steve Smith and the Carolina Panthers. He hasn’t scored since Week 6. No reason to believe that'll change this week against Seattle.

• Sure, Jay Cutler's coming off a four-TD game. But he's also got three zero-TD games and six one-TD games this year.

• Kevin Jones has put some great games on this year's stat sheet, but there are also 1-yard and minus-4-yard games sprinkled in there. Be careful using him this week against the Chargers.

Photo by The Associated Press.

WEEK 4 - Sundy Recap

- The Rams-Lions shootout was a fantasy player's dream. Just about everybody got in on the action in Mike Martz's return to St. Louis, even old Isaac Bruce. Marc Bulger put together the kind of 300-yard, three-TD performance we've been waiting for, Steven Jackson was solid, Kevin Jones busted through for two TDs, and Detroit WR Mike Furrey put his name on the fantasy map with two scores (anyone seen Mike Williams lately?).

- The Chiefs discovered some offense, with QB Damon Huard doing his best Trent Green impression and Larry Johnson finally coming through with a 101-yard, two-TD game.

- Frank Gore owners beware: he's lost a fumble in four straight games. If he keeps it up he's going to start losing touches pretty soon.

- Well, looks like you can stick a fork in Kurt Warner. He got a vote of confidence this week but didn't last four quarters in Sunday's game against Atlanta, and Matt Leinart has been announced as the Week 5 starter against Kansas City. Don't think I'd start Leinart next week unless you're desperate, but he's worth putting on your bench in preparation for Week 7 (at Oakland) and 8 (at Green Bay).

- Should Warrick Dunn owners be sweating? He followed a 44-yard game against New Orleans with a 55-yard effort against Arizona, while young backup Jerious Norwood torched the Cards with 106 yards and a TD. But look closer: Dunn got 19 carries to Norwood's five, and Norwood scored on a 78-yard scamper.

- T.O. was OK (five catches for 88 yards, just missed out on a TD catch) against Tennessee while Terry Glenn (two TDs) got the glory. But trust me, you'll want Owens in your lineup next week against Philly.

- DeShaun Foster held off DeAngelo Williams for another week with his 105-yard, one-TD game.

- It's official: New Orleans WR/TE Marques Colston (105 yards, TD) is legit.

- The Dolphins' offense looked awful. Daunte Culpepper was less-than-stellar again. Only ONE TD against the Texans? And it came in the last couple minutes to Chris Chambers, who had just three catches. Ronnie Brown is getting some receptions but he still hasn't cracked 100 yards on the ground. And why is he throwing a pass on a trick play when the Dolphins needed a two-point conversion at the end of the game?? Unbelievable. The Dolphins are killing a lot of fantasy teams right now. Bench Culpepper until further notice. David Carr is a better option at QB. Seriously.

- Is Peyton Manning becoming a running QB? No, but he does have two rushing TDs in two games after not running for any scores in the last four years. We'll take it.

- Laurence Maroney put Corey Dillon owners on notice with his 125 rushing yards and two TDs against Cincinnati. But Dillon still snuck in for a score against his old team.

- Chad Johnson hasn't lived up to the hype this year. One TD so far in '06 and no 100-yard games. Definitely not what we expected.

- Reuben Droughns and LaMont Jordan both finally showed signs of life by cracking the century mark. Jordan owners have to be especially happy, as they can now start him against the Niners next week with confidence.

- As for Randy Moss ... well, he had only one catch, but it was a TD. His QB, Andrew Walter, managed just 68 passing yards. What's a Moss owner to do? Nobody's gonna take him in a trade right now, so you've just gotta keep trotting him out there as your WR2 or WR3.

- Charlie Frye, fantasy starter? Why not? He's good for 1-2 scores a game in the air or on the ground, he's got a couple targets (Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow), and he spreads the ball around. He even threw a TD this week to someone named Darnell Dinkins (wasn't he the former mayor of NYC?). You could do worse than Frye as a bye-week fill-in.

- Jaguars-Redskins was surprisingly offensive, with Byron Leftwich and Mark Brunell each tossing three TDs (all three of Brunell's to Santana Moss). The Jags' Reggie Williams scored twice and is becoming a pretty solid fantasy option this year, along with Leftwich, especially with a really appealing stretch (Jets, at Houston, at Philly, Tennessee, Houston, Giants) coming up on the schedule.

- Maybe it's time to start taking the Bears' offense seriously. Bernard Berrian looks legit (three catches, 108 yards, TD vs. Seattle), Rex Grossman (two TDs) is competent, and Thomas Jones (98 yards, two TDs) is the top option in the backfield.

- Got questions about your lineup for Week 5? Think I'm an idiot? E-mail me at jbartolone@semosportsweb.com or post a comment here.

The Matt Leinart Era? Already?

So remember what I said about the Cardinals not replacing Kurt Warner with Matt Leinart at QB just yet? Well, according to this ESPN report, Leinart will start Sunday at Atlanta. It hadn't been confirmed as of Monday night.

I can't say I blame Dennis Green for possibly wanting to bench Warner after his disastrous turnovers .... sometimes Warner treats the football like a hot potato. But is Leinart really ready to play? He does have the luxury of Edgerrin James, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald around him, which automatically makes him intriguing from a fantasy perspective. But keep in mind he's a rookie QB ... if you're in a really deep leauge that allows three QBs, he's worth taking a flyer on, but otherwise I can't recommend him right now over veterans like Chad Pennington or Byron Leftwich or even David Carr who might be available as free agents.

And if you own Kurt Warner, well, I wouldn't dump him outright just now if you have another solid QB and weren't counting on the old guy. Even if Leinart does indeed take over the starting job, it's very early in the season, and there's no guarantee he'll play well enough to keep it. The Cards had designs on a playoff berth this season, so I don't think they're conceding the entire year just yet, and if Leinart gets that deer-in-the-headlights look in his first start, Warner will be back in the mix. Keep in mind a lot of people, myself included, had Warner down as a top-10 fantasy QB this year based on those offensive weapons around him. Maybe we goofed, but we'll just have to wait and see.