What the Mike Martz hiring means to you

The mad scientist is back in the NFL.

The Chicago Bears hired Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator on Monday in the hopes of reviving a stagnant offense that was a huge disappointment in 2009.


Martz, best known as the offensive guru behind the St. Louis Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" of the early part of the last decade, had been out of football last year. The move is particularly significant for fantasy owners because Martz, unlike some other first-time coordinators we see get hired from time to time, brings a signature offensive style to the table. Thus, we should have a good idea what to expect out of Bears skill players in 2010.

We all know what Martz accomplished with the Rams - a pass-heavy offense based on precision and timing that set league record books ablaze and made stars out of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.

It'd be hard to expect the same acrobatics out of the Bears offense in 2010, so let's take a closer look at Martz's accomplishments as an offensive coordinator after his fallout in St. Louis. Martz spent 2006-07 as an assistant in Detroit, a team with a serious talent deficit. Still, he helped QB Jon Kitna twice pass for 4,000 yards in a season. He coached WR Roy Williams to his best pro season (1,310 yards, 7 TDs in 2006). He squeezed a career-high 61 catches and 520 receiving yards out of RB Kevin Jones that year. He made unheralded WRs Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey fantasy relevant (and they haven't been heard from since).

Sure, the Lions never became world-beaters under Martz's guidance, but he did get production out of players who've done little or nothing otherwise in their NFL careers. In Martz's next stop, in San Francisco in 2008, he helped seven players rack up more than 300 receiving yards. Again, there was no Super Bowl appearance for the 49ers and no records were set, but Martz's track record stayed intact.

So we know what to expect out of the Bears in 2010 under Martz: Jay Cutler will get back to being a 4,000-yard passer and throw more TDs. Matt Forte will continue to get a lot of pass-catching opportunities (although his rushing stats aren't likely to improve). And the Bears' young receivers - Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu - should all see spikes in their stats. There's more raw talent in the Windy City than at Martz's last two stops, and the mad scientist may be able to do some real damage this time.

Sit 'Em: Week 12

- RB MICHAEL TURNER vs. Tampa Bay: Looks like he'll be a game-time decision on Sunday thanks to that high-ankle sprain that forced him to sit out last week. You may be tempted to use him against the porous Bucs defense, but I question his effectiveness if he does indeed play - that injury usually requires a few weeks of rest.

- WR BERNARD BERRIAN vs. Chicago: Yes, he's been catching a TD every other game since Week 4, but he also hasn't had more than 3 receptions in a game since then, either. And if he holds true to form, he won't score this week since he did last week.

- WR AUSTIN COLLIE at Houston: The rookie's had some nice games this year, especially for PPR purposes, but there's too much risk after last week's 1-catch game. Plus, the Texans bottled him up for 2 catches and 26 yards in their Week 9 meeting.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Jay Cutler managed 1 TD, 1 INT and only 171 yards against Philly last Sunday night. In case you're wondering, I don't like him this week on the road against Minnesota, either.

- Marion Barber had 102 total yards, most of them coming on two big plays (a 32-yard run and a 42-yard catch-and-run). He didn't score.

- Donnie Avery caught 4 balls for 65 yards but failed to score.

Sit 'Em: Week 11

- QB JAY CUTLER vs. Philadelphia: Let's face it, the kid's shaping up to be a fantasy bust this season, and while he's certain to bounce back from last week's 0-TD, 5-INT abomination, you've hopefully discovered a better option by now. This matchup just isn't in his favor.

- RB MARION BARBER vs. Washington: Bench the Barbarian? It's not that I don't like the matchup, it's just that the Cowboys aren't utilizing him the way they should, which means you're not getting the type of production you should be out of a No. 1 or 2 RB. The numbers are solid but they're not extraordinary. For instance, Barber's only topped 100 rushing yards once this year (in fact, he's only topped 80 once), back in Week 2 - which also happens to be the only game in which he got more than 15 carries. I'm just saying there might be more exciting options on your bench or on the waiver wire this week.

- WR DONNIE AVERY vs. Arizona: You may be inclined to start Avery in Week 11, given his 2-TD game last Sunday and the appeal of facing the Cardinals' pass defense (third-most passing yards allowed per game). But Avery's stats have been all over the place this year, and he's followed up just about every good performance with a 1-catch game this year. There's just too much risk involved in starting a Ram not named Steven Jackson unless you're really in a pinch.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- I didn't expect much from Julius Jones (2 carries, 10 yards), but I didn't foresee the bruised lung that would knock him out of the game.

- Carson Palmer totaled just 178 yards and didn't throw a TD pass in the Bengals' win over the Steelers. Boo yah.

- Just two catches and 24 yards for Torry Holt. Nailed it.

Matt Forte is killing me

Matt Forte is killing me.

I had this guy pegged as my No. 3 overall pick entering this season, right behind Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner. Ahead of Chris Johnson. Ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew. Ahead of Steven Jackson. Ahead of DeAngelo Williams.

How's that looking? Check this out:

PLAYER, YARDS, TDs

Adrian Peterson, 618, 7
Chris Johnson, 596, 2
Steven Jackson, 501, 0
Maurice Jones-Drew, 468, 8
DeAngelo Williams, 372, 4
Matt Forte, 294, 1

In other words, Forte's sucked.

This is a guy who rushed for 1,238 yards last year and 8 TDs. He also caught 63 balls for 477 yards and 4 more scores.

This year, he's caught only 18 balls, none for TDs.

You figured with strong-armed Jay Cutler in town, the Bears might rely a little less on the running game this year. I'll buy that. But didn't you figure Forte might be even more involved in the passing game? And even when they've run the ball with him, he hasn't been very effective - see his two fumbles on the goal line Sunday night against Atlanta.

Blame some of Forte's struggles on the Bears' schedule, which isn't getting any easier in the coming weeks. Five of Chicago's next six opponents rank in the upper-half of the league in run defense. We can only hope the Bears make a sustained effort to run the ball and Forte keeps getting carries and can somehow regain last year's form.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/27 Sleeper of the Day: Kyle Orton

QB KYLE ORTON, DENVER BRONCOS



The preseason didn't begin well for Denver's new starter, who tossed three picks and was booed off the field in his first start of 2009. But he was much improved last weekend (18-for-26, 182 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and still has the backing of first-year Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. A lot of that probably has to do with the fact that injury plagued backup Chris Simms is hurt again, and the other QBs on the roster are named Tom Brandstater and Ingle Martin. After the franchise alienated Jay Cutler and eventually traded him for Orton in the offseason, Denver doesn't have many other options anyway.

Orton may not be a marquee name, but it's worth nothing he scored more total TDs than Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan or David Garrard while playing much of 2008 on a bad ankle with the Bears. Now he gets a head coach known for making mediocre QBs into stars (see Matt Cassel), and is surrounded by much shinier toys (Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler, Knowshon Moreno) and a better offensive line to play with.

I have Orton ranked 15th among QBs this year, which would make him an upper-tier backup in 10-team leagues. He does carry some risk, which is why I'd ideally pair him with a solid performer like Peyton Manning or Donovan McNabb. If he can limit his mistakes and the Broncos run the kind of high-octane, imaginative offense one would expect out of McDaniels, Orton could be a big surprise.

Favre's fantasy outlook

Just when you thought it was safe to rank your fantasy QBs ... Brett Favre is back.

Remember this?



Forget it.

And this?



Never happened.

The old guy's latest return to the NFL shouldn't shake up things too much. If there's anything his 2008 campaign with the Jets taught us, it's that Favre is simply an average QB at this point (22 TDs, 22 INTs), one who is still capable of putting points on the board but is also a major injury risk. At age 39 (40 in October), that's to be expected.

The move to Minnesota shouldn't drastically alter his output, either. He's got some nice weapons at WR (Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin), but then, he had some in New York too. He'll obviously have a stronger running game to rely on - maybe the league's best with Adrian Peterson toting the rock - but that just means he won't have to wing it as much as he has in years past, something which actually helped pad his fantasy stats in years past.

I'm amending my 2009 QB rankings to put Favre at No. 18, which makes him a low-level No. 2 QB in most 10-team leagues. In other words, he might make for a decent spot starter, but you can't rely on him to carry a team, and I wouldn't take him over younger, healthier, steadier veterans (Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck) or less established QBs who have more upside (Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton).

Switching gears to the gridiron

The dog days of summer are here, and for those of us whose fantasy baseball teams have fallen out of contention, it can seem like the season drags on endlessly.

The good news: Football is right around the corner.

Fantasy football's always been the lifeblood of this blog. Sure, baseball's fun for the first few months, but the daily grind can take its toll, especially when your team's been stuck in ninth place like mine for what seems an eternity. I'll admit I've been slacking lately on the baseball posts, for a variety of reasons - vacation, hectic times at my "other" job and the general suckiness of my team. But it's my pledge to you now that I'll be posting more regularly as we get ready for football season.

Don't worry, baseball fanatics: I'll still be blogging on America's pastime when the mood strikes me, especially if we see any big moves as the MLB trade deadline approaches. But from here on out the primary focus will be on the gridiron, and I've got lots of thoughts. Is Adrian Peterson a lock for the No. 1 overall pick? How long should you wait to draft a QB this year? Is Jay Cutler better off as a Bear? Can Terrell Owens still be a fantasy force in Buffalo? I'll be dropping some knowledge on these and many other topics in the coming weeks, as well as unveiling my position-by-position rankings, plus some more surprises. So stay tuned.

Can you trust your quarterback?

In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.

By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.

The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.

As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.

Here’s how I break it down:

QBs YOU CAN TRUST

Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.

Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.

Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.

Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.

Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.

Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.

Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.

Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.

QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST

Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.

Beware of the dud

I was going to do a Week 14 recap, but why live in the past? If you're reading this, odds are your fantasy team is in the playoffs this week, so I'll do everything I can to get you prepared.

The following guys are setting off my dud radar, and I’d give serious thought to benching them unless I’m really stuck:




• Donovan McNabb is usually hurt around this time of year, so you can understand if he’s a little rusty against the Dallas Cowboys. It’s been a rough year for his Philadelphia Eagles.

• Kurt Warner has produced since taking over as the Arizona Cardinals’ starter, but do you really trust him with your fantasy life? Sure, he threw three TDs last week, but he was also picked off five times.

• Kansas City Chiefs rookie Kolby Smith rushed 13 times for 12 yards against the Denver Broncos, who can’t stop anybody. What makes you think he’ll fare better against the Tennessee Titans?

• Shaun Alexander’s been good for about 60 rushing yards a game this season. Start him if that’s what you’re into, but don’t expect anything special.

• I’ve seen enough touchdown-free games by Vince Young this year – six to be exact. Don’t let that happen to you this week. Start Cleo Lemon if you have to.

• Laurence Maroney and Donte’ Stallworth look like afterthoughts in the New England Patriots’ juggernaut offense. They should be fantasy afterthoughts too, even though their team won’t hold any punches against the New York Jets.

• I enjoy Maurice Jones-Drew’s highlights as much as the next guy, but would a 30-yard, no-TD game shock you this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers?

• It’s been an awful season for Steve Smith and the Carolina Panthers. He hasn’t scored since Week 6. No reason to believe that'll change this week against Seattle.

• Sure, Jay Cutler's coming off a four-TD game. But he's also got three zero-TD games and six one-TD games this year.

• Kevin Jones has put some great games on this year's stat sheet, but there are also 1-yard and minus-4-yard games sprinkled in there. Be careful using him this week against the Chargers.

Photo by The Associated Press.

Science fiction

Fantasy football is not a science.

As much as some fantasy “experts” try to crunch numbers, analyze data and apply formulas to their rankings and projections, this game is really just a crapshoot.

Don’t get me wrong: I’ve been known to break out a little scientific method now and then, trying to bring a little order to the chaotic universe of fantasy football. Part of my job involves taking all the information that’s out there and making sense of it all.

But in the end, science can only take you so far. Science couldn’t predict what Marques Colston did last year. And science has no explanation for how Warrick Dunn has lasted in the NFL this long.

There are no absolutes in fantasy football, no hard and fast rules that will hold up in lab testing. That’s why I’m more interested in Sir Isaac Bruce than Sir Isaac Newton, more concerned with the stud running back theory than the theory of relativity. And it’s why instead of giving you some kind of chiseled-in-stone laws for fantasy drafting, I’m going to share some simple gut feelings I have about players I like this season.


• QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles: If you’re the kind of person who plays penny slots in Vegas, this is not the gamble for you. But there are only five QBs I’d trust more than McNabb, who is capable of outproducing all of them (yes, all of them) if he can avoid injury.

• RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Here’s your chance to get this year’s version of Joseph Addai/Laurence Maroney. Even in a timeshare, Peterson will have a breakout role in the Vikings’ offensive philosophy of running to set up the run.

• RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: Listen, he’s not Tiki Barber, but who is? After Jacobs is off the draft board, good luck finding another bona fide feature back out there. And no, I’m not worried about Reuben Droughns – he’s a fullback in a running back’s uniform.

• RB LaMont Jordan, Oakland Raiders: LaMont and I have a love/hate relationship. He burned me big-time last year, but he’s slowly winning me back with a great preseason. I don’t think I can stay mad at him.

• RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets: I thought this was a great offseason move, and his calf injury hasn’t swayed my opinion. Jones is the dependable, every-down back the Jets lacked last year. He’s going to make a fine No. 2 RB.

• QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams: The pretty boys at the top of the QB rankings get all the attention, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bulger as a close second behind Peyton Manning when the season’s over.

• QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos: It’s not often you see a young quarterback surrounded with this much offensive talent and working behind this kind of quality offensive line. Don’t worry about the kid, he’s going to be fine.

Cutler gets the call

There's a report out there that the Broncos are going to hand over the starting QB reins to rookie Jay Cutler after watching Jake Plummer struggle all season. Cutler is intriguing from a fantasy perspective, as he's been considered by some to be the most NFL-ready QB in this year's rookie class. He also takes over control of a team thought to be a playoff contender, and ESPN's John Clayton says the change is expected to be permanent. It's probably safe to dump Plummer at this point - and let's face it, he probably wasn't helping too many teams out there anyway - and Cutler is worth a shot if you're looking for QB help.

Some other things you need to know:

-Saints rookie sensation Marques Colston will be a game-time decision with his high ankle sprain, which means you should probably look elsewhere if you have options. Hopefully the guy will be back soon to solidify that offensive rookie of the year award.

-The Bills are optimistic Willis McGahee will make his return against Jacksonville today. If he does, I'd imagine he'd split some carries with Anthony Thomas at least for one week and have a hard time against the Jags' run defense. Sit him for another week if you can.

-Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start Monday against Green Bay, and after seeing what Tom Brady and the Pats did to the Packers last week, this should be a great opportunity for Hasselbeck to shake off that rust.