Week 3 Sit 'Em: Eli, Greene, Wallace

- ELI MANNING vs. Tennessee: The Giants' offense is predicated on establishing the run, but it hasn't really worked so far. Even though Eli's got 5 TD passes in two games, figure on New York sticking to the ground game against a Titans secondary that's allowed just one passing TD and one play over 20 yards.

- SHONN GREENE at Miami: It was good to see Shonn getting more involved (15 carries) and being more productive (52 yards) in Week 2 after Week 1's bomb. Unfortunately, he hasn't been good enough, and LaDainian Tomlinson is still lurking in the Jets backfield.

- MIKE WALLACE at Tampa Bay: It sure looks like any value Wallace will have in 2010 will have to wait until Ben Roethlisberger's return - he has just 4 catches through 2 Big Ben-less games. The Steelers spun the wheel and came up with Charlie Batch at QB this week, and the Bucs' defenders haven't been pushovers this year.

Last week's picks

- Vince Young's stat line against the Steelers: 7-for-10, 66 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, one benching. Nailed it.

- Michael Crabtree's stat line against the Saints: One catch for 32 yards. Nailed it.

- Jahvid Best's stat line against the Eagles: 78 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards, 3 total TDs. Little off. I still stand by my prediction - the kid ran for 20 yards on 14 carries a week earlier in his debut! - but clearly I underestimated him.


The Associated Press

Sit 'Em: Week 9

- QB MATT RYAN vs. Washington: Ryan's thrown 6 picks in his past 3 games (vs. 5 TDs), and the Redskins' defense actually isn't so bad (ranked second against the pass, giving up 164.9 yards per game with six TDs). The Falcons might be better served giving the ball to Michael Turner, who topped 150 rushing yards last week, than having Ryan throw a lot against former Falcon DeAngelo Hall and Co.

- RB TASHARD CHOICE at Philadelphia: With Marion Barber and Felix Jones back to near 100 percent, Choice is relegated to third-string duties, as evidenced by his past two games (a combined 4 carries for 11 yards). Don't expect much, if anything, out of him this week.

- WR SAM AIKEN vs. Miami: This guy was a popular pickup after a 54-yard TD catch made the highlight reels two weeks ago in London. That wasn't enough to warrant starting consideration.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Eli Manning was even more atrocious than I imagined against the Eagles (222 yards, 2 INTs, 55.7 QB rating), although he did manage a TD pass.

- Darren Sproles carried the ball 5 times for 38 yards and caught an 8-yard pass. Nothin' special.

- Nate Washington only made 2 catches against the Jags, but one happened to be a TD.

Week 8 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while tuning into the Fox Favre Cam ....

- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.

- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.

- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.

- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.

- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.

- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.

- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.

- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.

- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.

-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.

- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.

Sit 'Em: Week 8

- QB ELI MANNING at Philadelphia: Eli seems to be entering his usual second-half funk right on cue after two sub-par games. He's also been nothing special against the Eagles the past two seasons, accounting for 5 TDs and 5 INTs in his past five matchups against Philly, including last season's playoff loss.

- RB DARREN SPROLES vs. Oakland: You may be tempted to use the squirt just because the Raiders are so pathetic and were just gashed by the Jets' running game last week. But there's too much risk involved in starting a guy who has gotten just 11 total touches in his past three games combined.

- WR NATE WASHINGTON vs. Jacksonville: His string of three straight games with a TD seems like a distant memory after last week's stat line: 1 catch, -22 yards. That's right, NEGATIVE 22 YARDS. I can't in good conscious recommend starting Washington this week against Jacksonville after that gem, and the Titans' instability at the QB spot only further complicates the matter.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Donovan McNabb was pretty average against Washington as I predicted: 156 yards, 1 TD.

- The Saints surprisingly put up 46 points on the Dolphins, but Pierre Thomas (8 carries for 30 yards) wasn't part of the fun.

- Percy Harvin registered just 3 catches for 42 yards at Pittsburgh, but he did return a kick for a TD, which is nice if your league credits you for individual special teams scores.

Photo by The Associated Press

Sit 'Em: Week 2

- WR DEVERY HENDERSON vs. Eagles: Last week's 103-yard, one-TD game was sweet, but we've seen that before out of this dude. Last year he only had one 100-yard game, in Week 4, and then he never caught more than 3 passes in a game after that (and had only one more TD). In other words, he's a boom-or-bust guy, and my guess is after last week's boom against the Lions he goes bust against Philly.

- RB PIERRE THOMAS vs. Eagles: He was likely a high pick in your league and probably your No. 2 RB, but you'll have to wait another week to collect on your investment. Too many strikes against him - he's still hampered by a knee injury, replacement Mike Bell played very well in his stead, and the Eagles should be tough against the run.

- QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER vs. Bears: Week 1's ridiculous numbers notwithstanding, the Steelers would love to get their running game going this week. And Chicago's no slouch against the pass - take away Aaron Rodgers' late 50-yard TD bomb last week and Da Bears held the Packers QB to 134 passing yards and no scores for the majority of the game. Expect Big Ben's numbers to be a little smaller this week.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Lee Evans had just a measley 3 catches for 25 yards in a loss to the Patriots. Thanks for playing, guy.

- Eli Manning threw for 256 yards and a TD against Washington. Solid but not start-worthy.

- Knowshon Moreno had only 8 carries for 19 yards in his pro debut.

Sit 'Em: Week 1

WR LEE EVANS at Patriots: The Bills wideout totaled just seven catches for 85 yards and zero TDs in two matchups with the Pats last season - and that was before Terrell Owens came into the picture.

QB ELI MANNING vs. Redskins: He's a capable No. 2 fantasy QB, which means he belongs on your bench most weeks. This is one - he threw for just one TD in two games against the 'Skins in 2008. Not much upside here.

RB KNOWSHON MORENO at Bengals: The rookie's time as a fantasy star will come, but not this week. He's still been hampered by a bum knee, and it's unclear how many carries the Broncos braintrust plan to give to Correll Buckhalter, Peyton Hillis and LaMont Jordan - all of whom are listed above Moreno on the team's latest depth chart.

Can you trust your quarterback?

In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.

By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.

The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.

As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.

Here’s how I break it down:

QBs YOU CAN TRUST

Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.

Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.

Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.

Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.

Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.

Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.

Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.

Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.

QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST

Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.

Week 1: The good, bad and unpredictable

The first week of NFL action is always the hardest to predict. We went into our season-opening fantasy matchups basing our expectations on four meaningless preseason games, head coaches' cryptic comments, rumors, hearsay and innuendo.

For instance, who knew Randy Moss' hamstring was so healthy? The dude didn't play all preseason, Bill Belichick was his usual tight-lipped self - and Moss goes nuts for 183 yards and a TD on Sunday. I'm still not sold he'll be a consistent producer in the New England Patriots' spread-the-ball offense, but it looks like you can safely insert Moss into your lineup this week against the San Diego Chargers and at least get something out of him.

Moss' tale is just one piece of good news fantasy owners received after seeing some games that count. We've also gotten some red flags, too, concerning players we had big hopes for. Here's what we've learned so far.

GOOD NEWS

• Minnesota Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson showed a flash of his potential Sunday (163 total yards, TD) while running mate Chester Taylor went down. Taylor (oblique) will be back, but Peterson's already proven he can carry the load. He's a decent option against the Detroit Lions this week.

• Shaun Alexander showed no signs of last year's broken foot, romping for 106 yards and a TD. There are a few caveats - he had a whopping 27 carries, and they came against the soft Tampa Bay Buccaneers - but consider the foot problem a non-issue.

• Another non-issue: Travis Henry's preseason knee problems. The Denver Broncos' offseason acquisition looked as nimble as ever (139 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards) against the Buffalo Bills and should be a productive No. 1 RB.

• LaMont Jordan's 15 carries for 70 yards and a TD don't automatically erase last season's "bust" label from his forehead . . . but his nine receptions for 89 yards certainly help his cause. If new Oakland Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin is willing to utilize Jordan's pass-catching skills, we're all for it.

BAD NEWS

• Brandon Jacobs' knee injury was in fact the worst news from Week 1. A sprained MCL may keep the New York Giants RB sidelined three to five weeks. Backup Derrick Ward (and not Reuben Droughns, as I've previously warned) is probably the guy you want to add if you're desperate.

• The injury bug also bit Giants QB Eli Manning, who had an encouraging 2007 debut (312 yards, four TDs) Sunday night before exiting with a banged-up shoulder. Young Eli is week-to-week, so go with Plan B - and hopefully that's not hefty Giants second-stringer Jared Lorenzen.

• Still reeling from a sub-60-yard performance by Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson or LaDainian Tomlinson? Relax. I'm confident all of these gentlemen have multiple 100-yard games in their futures.

• Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints didn't have the outing we've come to expect in their season opener at Indianapolis. But better days are ahead for every member of that offense, beginning Sunday in Tampa.

Hope for Eli?

There's no question Eli Manning's development has been slower than the director's cut version of Apocalypse Now. This past season was supposed to be his breakout year - you heard it here first- but he actually seemed to take a step back in the second half. Can you count on him in 2007?

Well you probably can't draft him as your starter, at least not in 10-team leagues. Dude's way too inconsistent, and who knows what that offense will be like with Tiki Barber breaking down hot Fall fashions or whatever he'll be doing on network TV next year. But Eli could be a nice sleeper pick as a backup thanks to the hiring of QB coach Chris Palmer.

You may best remember Palmer for a disastrous two-year stint as head coach of the "expansion" Cleveland Browns from 1999-2000. So why get excited for Eli? Palmer is something of a QB guru, and although his time with Tim Couch and Co. didn't work out that well, Palmer has tutored Drew Bledsoe (when he was good), Mark Brunell (when he was good) and David Carr, and he most recently worked wonders with little-known Tony Romo in Dallas. With Palmer tutoring young Eli and newly promoted offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride calling the plays in a make-or-break year for Tom Coughlin's Giants, there is hope for that big breakout statistical season we've been waiting for.

And before we throw in the towel on Manning as an NFL QB at age 26, let's compare his stats (through three seasons) to another No. 1 pick, Mr. John Elway:

ELWAY: 42 games, 47 TDs, 52 INTs, 8,152 yards, 53 pct. passing, 0-2 playoff record
ELI: 41 games, 54 TDs, 44 INTs, 8,049 yards, 54 pct. passing, 0-2 playoff record

Maybe this is just the deluded Giants fan in me talking (OK, it definitely is), but I still believe there's hope for Eli in '07.

WEEK 3 - Sunday Recap

- The Rams got the best of old pal Kurt Warner and the Cardinals, thanks to his FOUR turnovers. Does that mean Matt Leinart should start warming up? Not yet, but it will just be more evidence for Dennis Green when he eventually makes the switch.

- Another nice outing for Mr. Torry Holt (120 yards, TD). He's as steady as they come.

- Here's why you can't always just go by the injury report: Brian Westbrook was questionable with a sore knee. He didn't practice Friday. But he's one of your stud guys, your first or second pick. He's got an enticing matchup against the Niners. Unless you're in some ridiculous league where you've got another stud on the bench, you've got to start him if he's cleared to play. All he did was rush for 117 yards and two TDs, then tack on 47 receiving yards - and another score! When you're setting your lineup, sometimes you've just gotta go with your heart.

- It was a similar story with Ahman Green. He was questionable with a hamstring issue. But I had to start him out of necessity because of the bye week. ESPN even put up a graphic sometime around 12:15 on Sunday saying he was "OUT," just to fool me, but Chris Berman later corrected it to say Green would play. What a nice fellow, that Boomer. Anyway, Green was good (68 rushing yards, 63 receiving yards and a TD), even though he had a costly fumble, but that's been a problem with him for years. The lesson: if a banged-up guy is cleared to play, and you would have started him anyway if it weren't for his injury, you should probably still start him.

- Need WR help? Get Green Bay rookie Greg Jennings while you still can.

- Hear that huge whoosing sound off in the distance Sunday? That was Clinton Portis owners everywhere taking a huge sigh of relief. The big guy had 164 total yards and two TDs, giving sweet satisfaction to those who took a gamble on him after two weeks of frustration. Granted, he was playing the Texans, who managed to make even Mark Brunell look good, but Portis should be cool from here on out.

- Another happy return: Steve Smith finally took the field and looked pretty good (seven catches, 112 yards) against the Bucs as he eased himself back into action. Welcome back!

- San Francisco TE Vernon Davis cracked a bone in his leg and could miss four weeks. If you need a replacement, look no further that his teammate, Eric Johnson, who caught seven passes and a TD on Sunday in Davis' absence. The Ivy Leaguer fell off the radar last year when he missed the season with a foot injury, but he led the Niners in receptions (82) the year before. He should have a bigger role in the offense the next few weeks.

- Another Niner whose stock has risen: WR/RB Michael Robinson. The former Penn State quarterback rushed for 29 yards and two TDs against Philly, and with starter Frank Gore suffering a strained abdomen already being questionable for next week, M-Rob could be getting some more touches. At the very least he may have earned himself a spot as the short-yardage back. He's got two key characteristics for that role: a big heart, and an even bigger cranium.

- Hope you weren't counting on Chris Simms at QB, but if you were, he's out indefinitely after suffering a ruptured spleen. As if the pirate ship wasn't already sinking in Tampa Bay, rookie Bruce Gradkowski now gets the call. He might have a future in the NFL, but the future is not now.

- Another pedestrian outing from Daunte Culpepper: 17 for 26, 168 yards, one TD rushing, no TDs passing, no INTs and a fumble. Not a total disaster (the Dolphins did win), but certainly not the breakout game we expected against the lowly Titans. It doesn't look like he's going to be a major fantasy force anytime soon.

- Welcome to fantasy football, Maurice Jones-Drew: 103 rushing yards and a TD catch against the Colts will make the Jacksonville rookie a hot pickup, especially when he outdid veteran Fred Taylor (74 yards).

- More RBBC (running back by committee) aggravation: Dominic Rhodes (14 carries, 48 yards) vs. Joseph Addai (three carries, 15 yards); Laurence Maroney (12 carries, 18 yards) vs. Corey Dillon (five carries, 16 yards, left with arm injury); Tatum Bell (27 carries, 123 yards) vs. Mike Bell (four carries, 12 yards); Kevan Barlow (12 carries, 31 yards, TD) vs. Cedric Houston (two carries, 10 yards, TD) vs. Leon Washington (seven carries, 25 yards; two carries, 52 yards). Maroney gets an obvious upgrade if Dillon is hurt; Tatum is separating himself; Barlow is the Jets' main guy but the other guys will steal touches; and in Indy it's anybody's guess.

- To those who added Rex Grossman and expected another four-TD day: that's not how it works, guys.

- Lots of yards for Willis McGahee (150) again, but does the dude have a fear of the end zone? Browns QB Charlie Frye now has three rushing TDs, while McGahee has zero.

- Carson Palmer throws four TDs, and not one to Chad Johnson. In fact, Chad had only one catch for 11 yards. What the heck is up with that??

- Almost thought Eli Manning wasn't gonna come through this week as the Giants got spanked by the Seahawks, but three late TD passes salvaged a nice game. Is there anything sweeter than garbage time?