1. RB JASON SNELLING, Falcons
Michael Turner (groin) says he’ll be fine for Week 3, but Snelling (186 total yards, 3 TDs) looked great in his absence and is an obvious handcuff with big-time upside.
2. WR DEMARYIUS THOMAS, Broncos
The rookie made his presence felt (8 catches, 97 yards, TD) in his first pro game last week and will be an important part of the Broncos’ air attack again this week vs. Indy.
WR LOUIS MURPHY
Murphy looks like the best wideout in Silver & Black, catching 6 balls for 91 yards and a TD vs. St. Louis. He should benefit if Bruce Gradkowski takes over at QB, as the two have some chemistry.
Showing posts with label Michael Turner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Turner. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Week 2 Recap, Part I: How 'bout them Cowboys?
- The Cowboys are a mess. The only ones who should undoubtedly be in your lineup each week right now are Miles Austin and probably Jason Witten. Tony Romo's got just 2 TDs in two weeks, and Marion Barber and Felix Jones are afterthoughts behind a shaky offensive line.
- Michael Turner was off to a fine start against Arizona (75 yards on 8 carries) before exiting against with a groin injury. Jason Snelling (129 rushing yards, 57 receiving yards, 2 TDs) got to reap the benefits of injuries to turner and second-stringer Jerious Norwood - but I'll give you a dollar if you actually started him.
- Two games and we're still waiting for top-five pick Ray Rice to find the end zone. Problem is, the Ravens have faced two very good Ds in the Jets and Bengals. Figure Rice will have his best day so far in Week 3 vs. Cleveland.
- Todd Haley is messing with us. The Chiefs coach gave Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles an equal number of carries in Week 1, then Jones gets twice as many (22 to Charles' 11) in Week 2. That makes both of those guys a questionable play this week against San Francisco, unfortunately.
- Michael Vick bailed out those who picked him up this week with 284 yards passing and 2 TDs. Unfortunately it's now back to the bench with Kevin Kolb returning to starting duty for the Eagles. You may want to keep Vick on your bench, too, if Kolb should falter.
- Packers TE Jermichael Finley is a big play waiting to happen. Four catches for 103 yards for the big fella on Sunday, and he had one more target than both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.
- You may want to think twice about starting your RBs against the Steelers defense after they limited both Turner (42 yards) and Chris Johnson (34 yards) in consecutive weeks. The Bucs' Cadillac Williams is up next - good luck with that.
- Just when you were about to declare Brett Favre (1 TD, 4 INTs in 2010) a bust, he gets a crack at the Lions in Week 3.
Photo by The Associated Press
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
2010 RB Rankings
2010 RUNNING BACK RANKINGS
This year's top four are more or less no-brainers for me, but then you'll spot a few surprises. I have Frank Gore of the run-heavy 49ers, the rejuvenated Michael Turner and the always dangerous Steven Jackson in the next tier of runners. I do have my annual concerns about S-Jax, who still has a weak supporting cast around him.
Next up are a few feature backs I expect to see a ton of carries, Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Grant, and a surprise at No. 10, Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. The breakout star of the second half of 2009 is going a lot later than many of the other backs on this list. but I believe he has the talent to produce like a top-10 RB.
I have Arian Foster ranked higher than many other experts, but with the season-ending injury to Ben Tate and the Texans' glaring need for a feature back, I think the rookie has a real opportunity in 2010.
You may also be surprised to see Michael Bush ahead of Reggie Bush, and I don't know if that says more about how much I like Michael or how much I dislike Reggie this year. Either way, I think they're best suited to be No. 4 fantasy backs in most leagues. Move Reggie up a bit in PPR leagues, of course.
I'm pretty high on Ahmad Bradshaw this year because I like his talent, I believe he's healthy, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him outperform Brandon Jacobs this year for the Giants.
I don't believe the Cardinals will be stubborn enough to favor Tim Hightower over Beanie Wells for the majority of 2010, and I've ranked the two players accordingly.
Looking for a deep, deep sleeper? The camp reports haven't been great and he's battling a shoulder injury, but I'm a fan of Steelers rookie Jonathan Dwyer. It might take him a year, but I think he can evolve into a good goal-line back. Stay tuned.
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. Rashard Mendenhall
9. Ryan Grant
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Cedric Benson
12. DeAngelo Williams
13. Ryan Matthews
14. Shonn Greene
15. Beanie Wells
16. Knowshon Moreno
17. Pierre Thomas
18. Jonathan Stewart
19. Felix Jones
20. Ronnie Brown
21. LeSean McCoy
22. Joseph Addai
23. Arian Foster
24. Brandon Jacobs
25. Justin Forsett
26. Matt Forte
27. Ricky Williams
28. Jahvid Best
29. C.J. Spiller
30. Marion Barber
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Clinton Portis
34. Michael Bush
35. Reggie Bush
36. Donald Brown
37. Fred Jackson
38. Cadillac Williams
39. Thomas Jones
40. LaDainian Tomlinson
41. Darren Sproles
42. Darren McFadden
43. Montario Hardesty
44. Tim Hightower
45. Steve Slaton
46. Chester Taylor
47. Laurence Maroney
48. Willis McGahee
49. Correll Buckhalter
50. Kevin Smith
51. Anthony Dixon
52. Mike Bell
53. Fred Taylor
54. Rashad Jennings
55. Toby Gerhart
56. Larry Johnson
57. Tashard Choice
58. Bernard Scott
59. Leon Washington
60. Jonathan Dwyer
This year's top four are more or less no-brainers for me, but then you'll spot a few surprises. I have Frank Gore of the run-heavy 49ers, the rejuvenated Michael Turner and the always dangerous Steven Jackson in the next tier of runners. I do have my annual concerns about S-Jax, who still has a weak supporting cast around him.
Next up are a few feature backs I expect to see a ton of carries, Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Grant, and a surprise at No. 10, Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. The breakout star of the second half of 2009 is going a lot later than many of the other backs on this list. but I believe he has the talent to produce like a top-10 RB.
I have Arian Foster ranked higher than many other experts, but with the season-ending injury to Ben Tate and the Texans' glaring need for a feature back, I think the rookie has a real opportunity in 2010.
You may also be surprised to see Michael Bush ahead of Reggie Bush, and I don't know if that says more about how much I like Michael or how much I dislike Reggie this year. Either way, I think they're best suited to be No. 4 fantasy backs in most leagues. Move Reggie up a bit in PPR leagues, of course.
I'm pretty high on Ahmad Bradshaw this year because I like his talent, I believe he's healthy, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him outperform Brandon Jacobs this year for the Giants.
I don't believe the Cardinals will be stubborn enough to favor Tim Hightower over Beanie Wells for the majority of 2010, and I've ranked the two players accordingly.
Looking for a deep, deep sleeper? The camp reports haven't been great and he's battling a shoulder injury, but I'm a fan of Steelers rookie Jonathan Dwyer. It might take him a year, but I think he can evolve into a good goal-line back. Stay tuned.
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. Rashard Mendenhall
9. Ryan Grant
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Cedric Benson
12. DeAngelo Williams
13. Ryan Matthews
14. Shonn Greene
15. Beanie Wells
16. Knowshon Moreno
17. Pierre Thomas
18. Jonathan Stewart
19. Felix Jones
20. Ronnie Brown
21. LeSean McCoy
22. Joseph Addai
23. Arian Foster
24. Brandon Jacobs
25. Justin Forsett
26. Matt Forte
27. Ricky Williams
28. Jahvid Best
29. C.J. Spiller
30. Marion Barber
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Clinton Portis
34. Michael Bush
35. Reggie Bush
36. Donald Brown
37. Fred Jackson
38. Cadillac Williams
39. Thomas Jones
40. LaDainian Tomlinson
41. Darren Sproles
42. Darren McFadden
43. Montario Hardesty
44. Tim Hightower
45. Steve Slaton
46. Chester Taylor
47. Laurence Maroney
48. Willis McGahee
49. Correll Buckhalter
50. Kevin Smith
51. Anthony Dixon
52. Mike Bell
53. Fred Taylor
54. Rashad Jennings
55. Toby Gerhart
56. Larry Johnson
57. Tashard Choice
58. Bernard Scott
59. Leon Washington
60. Jonathan Dwyer
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Hot Pickups: Week 16
FIVE STARS (Out of five)
- RB JEROME HARRISON, Browns: I know, I know. I told you to pick up Harrison for Week 5, after he had just run for 129 yards, and he went on to do nothing special for the next 8 weeks. Then I told you to get him for Week 14, after he had just caught 2 TD passes, and he went out and had a 9-yard game. Now I'm telling you to get him one more time after his 286-yard, 3-TD blockbuster of a game. Third time's a charm? I guess we'll see.
FOUR STARS
- RB JASON SNELLING, Falcons: Here's another former Hot Pickup making a return appearance. I suggested Snelling back in Week 11, and he rewarded my thought with 2 TDs against the Giants. But a subsequent stinker against the Bucs (4 carries, 8 yards) dropped him off a lot of people's radars. Snelling's carries have quietly increased, however, the past three weeks (10, 10, 16), and with Michael Turner still hobbled, Snelling seems ripe for a big day against Buffalo.
THREE STARS
- RB MICHAEL BUSH, Raiders: Bush has actually been quite effective when he gets a decent amount of work against bad teams (14 carries for 119 yards vs. K.C. in Week 10; 18 carries for 133 yards, TD vs. Denver last week). I'm not sure how many carries he'll get this wek - but I do know the Browns are a bad team. Feeling lucky?
- WR JOSH MORGAN, 49ers: This just in - Alex Smith isn't as terrible as we thought. The QB was actually looking pretty good up until last week in Philly, and his improved play helped boost the value of Morgan, who has 2 TD catches in his past three weeks. And it gets better - Morgan faces the Lions this week, and the Rams in Week 17.
- RB JEROME HARRISON, Browns: I know, I know. I told you to pick up Harrison for Week 5, after he had just run for 129 yards, and he went on to do nothing special for the next 8 weeks. Then I told you to get him for Week 14, after he had just caught 2 TD passes, and he went out and had a 9-yard game. Now I'm telling you to get him one more time after his 286-yard, 3-TD blockbuster of a game. Third time's a charm? I guess we'll see.
FOUR STARS
- RB JASON SNELLING, Falcons: Here's another former Hot Pickup making a return appearance. I suggested Snelling back in Week 11, and he rewarded my thought with 2 TDs against the Giants. But a subsequent stinker against the Bucs (4 carries, 8 yards) dropped him off a lot of people's radars. Snelling's carries have quietly increased, however, the past three weeks (10, 10, 16), and with Michael Turner still hobbled, Snelling seems ripe for a big day against Buffalo.
THREE STARS
- RB MICHAEL BUSH, Raiders: Bush has actually been quite effective when he gets a decent amount of work against bad teams (14 carries for 119 yards vs. K.C. in Week 10; 18 carries for 133 yards, TD vs. Denver last week). I'm not sure how many carries he'll get this wek - but I do know the Browns are a bad team. Feeling lucky?
- WR JOSH MORGAN, 49ers: This just in - Alex Smith isn't as terrible as we thought. The QB was actually looking pretty good up until last week in Philly, and his improved play helped boost the value of Morgan, who has 2 TD catches in his past three weeks. And it gets better - Morgan faces the Lions this week, and the Rams in Week 17.
Friday, December 04, 2009
Sit 'Em: Week 13
- QB KURT WARNER vs. Minnesota: The Cardinals are being cautious with their QB's concussion, and rightfully so. There's no need for them to play him, and even if they do, the Vikings defense could cause him even more headaches. It's not worth the risk, especially if he ends up being a late scratch again this week.
- RB BRANDON JACOBS vs. Dallas: There are a number of reasons not to like him this week - he hasn't topped 80 yards in a game since Week 8, he's scored only 3 times this year, and Dallas held him to 58 yards and no TDs in their first meeting. Plus, in the past, Jacobs has been at his best when he's used in tandem with another back, but second-stringer Ahmad Bradshaw has a bum ankle and third-stringer DJ Ware won't play. You're probably stuck with Jacobs as your No. 2 back regardless, but don't expect too much out of him.
- Michael Turner tried to make a go of it Sunday, but he managed just 33 yards on 12 carries before his ankle sprain gave out on him.
- Bernard Berrian made 6 catches for 74 yards but continued his streak of not scoring every other week like I mentioned.
- Austin Collie had 4 catches for 70 yards. Decent.
- RB BRANDON JACOBS vs. Dallas: There are a number of reasons not to like him this week - he hasn't topped 80 yards in a game since Week 8, he's scored only 3 times this year, and Dallas held him to 58 yards and no TDs in their first meeting. Plus, in the past, Jacobs has been at his best when he's used in tandem with another back, but second-stringer Ahmad Bradshaw has a bum ankle and third-stringer DJ Ware won't play. You're probably stuck with Jacobs as your No. 2 back regardless, but don't expect too much out of him.
- RB WILLIS McGAHEE at Green Bay: McGahee's had double-digit carries only one time since Week 2, and he's scored only once since Week 4 (although that TD happened to come last week). He's not getting enough reps to warrant a start, especially against the Packers' fourth-ranked rush defense.
- Michael Turner tried to make a go of it Sunday, but he managed just 33 yards on 12 carries before his ankle sprain gave out on him.
- Bernard Berrian made 6 catches for 74 yards but continued his streak of not scoring every other week like I mentioned.
- Austin Collie had 4 catches for 70 yards. Decent.
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Start 'Em: Week 13
- QB ALEX SMITH at Seattle: The kid's thrown for 459 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT in his past two games and faces the Seahawks' 25th-ranked passing D. If I'm fed up with my QB (Jay Cutler, Eli Manning ...) Smith is the guy I'm going to.
- RB KNOWSHON MORENO at Kansas City: Denver's rookie RB has topped 80 yards rushing in each of his past three games, and the Chiefs aren't exactly known as great run-stoppers.
- WR PIERRE GARCON vs. Tennessee: Indy's second-year receiver has scored a TD or topped 100 yards in each of his past three games, and the Titans aren't exactly known as great pass-defenders.
LAST WEEK'S PICKS
- Matt Hasselbeck was a bomb (14-for-25, 102 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) as RB Justin Forsett did all the heavy lifting. My apologies.
- Jason Snelling got only 4 carries for 8 yards as the Falcons decided to go with an ineffective Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood for the majority of the rushing attempts.
- Chris Chambers caught 7 passes for 70 yards and a TD, solidifying his status as the Chiefs' No. 1 receiver.
Friday, November 27, 2009
Sit 'Em: Week 12
- RB MICHAEL TURNER vs. Tampa Bay: Looks like he'll be a game-time decision on Sunday thanks to that high-ankle sprain that forced him to sit out last week. You may be tempted to use him against the porous Bucs defense, but I question his effectiveness if he does indeed play - that injury usually requires a few weeks of rest.
- WR BERNARD BERRIAN vs. Chicago: Yes, he's been catching a TD every other game since Week 4, but he also hasn't had more than 3 receptions in a game since then, either. And if he holds true to form, he won't score this week since he did last week.
- WR AUSTIN COLLIE at Houston: The rookie's had some nice games this year, especially for PPR purposes, but there's too much risk after last week's 1-catch game. Plus, the Texans bottled him up for 2 catches and 26 yards in their Week 9 meeting.
LAST WEEK'S PICKS
- Jay Cutler managed 1 TD, 1 INT and only 171 yards against Philly last Sunday night. In case you're wondering, I don't like him this week on the road against Minnesota, either.
- Marion Barber had 102 total yards, most of them coming on two big plays (a 32-yard run and a 42-yard catch-and-run). He didn't score.
- Donnie Avery caught 4 balls for 65 yards but failed to score.
- WR BERNARD BERRIAN vs. Chicago: Yes, he's been catching a TD every other game since Week 4, but he also hasn't had more than 3 receptions in a game since then, either. And if he holds true to form, he won't score this week since he did last week.
- WR AUSTIN COLLIE at Houston: The rookie's had some nice games this year, especially for PPR purposes, but there's too much risk after last week's 1-catch game. Plus, the Texans bottled him up for 2 catches and 26 yards in their Week 9 meeting.
LAST WEEK'S PICKS
- Jay Cutler managed 1 TD, 1 INT and only 171 yards against Philly last Sunday night. In case you're wondering, I don't like him this week on the road against Minnesota, either.
- Marion Barber had 102 total yards, most of them coming on two big plays (a 32-yard run and a 42-yard catch-and-run). He didn't score.
- Donnie Avery caught 4 balls for 65 yards but failed to score.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Start 'Em: Week 12
- QB MATT HASSELBECK at St. Louis: The veteran's coming off a rough day in Minnesota (zero TDs, 1 INT in a 35-9 loss), but the Rams' secondary should be the perfect tonic.
- RB JASON SNELLING vs. Tampa Bay: The guy's scored three times in the past two games since starter Michael Turner got hurt, and he'll get the start again Sunday. You have to like the matchup, too, against a Bucs defense that's been torched by the likes of Pierre Thomas (92 yards), Rickey Williams (102 yards), Ronnie Brown (82 yards, TD) and Ryan Grant (96 yards, TD) in recent weeks.
- WR CHRIS CHAMBERS at San Diego: He's got 249 yards and two TDs in three games since becoming a Chief, and now he faces the team that cut him. I like it.
LAST WEEK'S PICKS
- Beanie Wells didn't quite have a career day against the Rams, but 74 yards and a TD will do the trick.
- Another rookie, LeSean McCoy, DID have a career day on the ground (99 yards, TD) in Chicago.
- Santonio Holmes caught 7 passes for 86 yards but, alas, didn't catch a TD as I predicted.
- RB JASON SNELLING vs. Tampa Bay: The guy's scored three times in the past two games since starter Michael Turner got hurt, and he'll get the start again Sunday. You have to like the matchup, too, against a Bucs defense that's been torched by the likes of Pierre Thomas (92 yards), Rickey Williams (102 yards), Ronnie Brown (82 yards, TD) and Ryan Grant (96 yards, TD) in recent weeks.
- WR CHRIS CHAMBERS at San Diego: He's got 249 yards and two TDs in three games since becoming a Chief, and now he faces the team that cut him. I like it.
LAST WEEK'S PICKS
- Beanie Wells didn't quite have a career day against the Rams, but 74 yards and a TD will do the trick.
- Another rookie, LeSean McCoy, DID have a career day on the ground (99 yards, TD) in Chicago.
- Santonio Holmes caught 7 passes for 86 yards but, alas, didn't catch a TD as I predicted.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Hot pickups: Week 11
FOUR STARS (Out of five)
RB JUSTIN FORSETT, Seahawks: The second-year back had a career day (123 rushing yards, 5 catches for 26 yards, TD) when Julius Jones exited Sunday with what turned out to be a broken rib. Unfortunately he faces a tough D in the Vikings this week, but he's someone to grab and hold onto down the stretch.
RB JASON SNELLING, Falcons: Another backup running back here - sensing a trend? With Michael Turner nursing a high ankle sprain - an injury that usually takes at least a few weeks to heal - Snelling steps into a starting role. Snelling totaled 93 rushing and receiving yards last week and scored a TD with Turner on the sidelines, and now he faces the Giants and Bucs (22 total rushing TDs allowed in 2009) in successive weeks.
RB BERNARD SCOTT, Bengals: Yup, another second-stringer. Cedric Benson hurt his hip against the Steelers, so in stepped Scott. Though his numbers weren't particularly impresive (13 carries for 33 yards, 1 catch for 21 yards), keep in mind he was facing the Steelers, and he did show off his skills on a 96-yard kick return for the game's only TD. Scott would be a great play this week against Oakland if benson can't go.
THREE STARS
WR NATE WASHINGTON, Titans: He's scored two TDs in the past three weeks since Vince Young took over at QB for Tennessee, and it's a decent bet he'll score another one on Monday night against Houston.
RB JUSTIN FORSETT, Seahawks: The second-year back had a career day (123 rushing yards, 5 catches for 26 yards, TD) when Julius Jones exited Sunday with what turned out to be a broken rib. Unfortunately he faces a tough D in the Vikings this week, but he's someone to grab and hold onto down the stretch.
RB JASON SNELLING, Falcons: Another backup running back here - sensing a trend? With Michael Turner nursing a high ankle sprain - an injury that usually takes at least a few weeks to heal - Snelling steps into a starting role. Snelling totaled 93 rushing and receiving yards last week and scored a TD with Turner on the sidelines, and now he faces the Giants and Bucs (22 total rushing TDs allowed in 2009) in successive weeks.
RB BERNARD SCOTT, Bengals: Yup, another second-stringer. Cedric Benson hurt his hip against the Steelers, so in stepped Scott. Though his numbers weren't particularly impresive (13 carries for 33 yards, 1 catch for 21 yards), keep in mind he was facing the Steelers, and he did show off his skills on a 96-yard kick return for the game's only TD. Scott would be a great play this week against Oakland if benson can't go.
THREE STARS
WR NATE WASHINGTON, Titans: He's scored two TDs in the past three weeks since Vince Young took over at QB for Tennessee, and it's a decent bet he'll score another one on Monday night against Houston.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Week 10 Recap
A few random fantasy musings while wondering how such a football genius (Bill Belichick) could make such a dumb call ...
- So Ladell Betts subs in for Clinton Portis and has the best day yet by a Redskins back this season (114 yards, TD). Told ya to pick him up - and I'll tell you to start him this week against Dallas, too.
- You figured the Saints skill players would have a field day against the Rams, but surprisingly it was Reggie Bush (two total TDs) and another of my Hot Pickups for the week, Robert Meachem (41-yard catch, 27-yard TD run) who did all the damage.
- Chris Johnson, Fantasy MVP? It's looking good after another absolute nuclear detonation of a game (132 rushing yards and two TDs, plus 100 receiving yards).
- Think Kellen Winslow (7 catches, 102 yards) is glad Tampa Bay finally made a switch at QB? He's the only dependable Buc in fantasy land.
- Vikings WR Sidney Rice (201 receiving yards) now has three monster games in his past four, and upcoming matchups Seattle and Chicago are looking mighty tasty right now.
- Sure, Maurice Jones-Drew's decision to take a knee at the 1-yard line to set up a game-winning FG attempt screwed over some fantasy owners. But it's hard to find a lot of fault with a guy who had 132 yards and a TD already and who leads the league in rushing scores (12).
- Not much to report from the Bengals-Steelers slugfest, fantasy-wise, unless you had Cincinnati's D/ST. The good news if you own guys on either of these teams is they have some favorable schedules coming up. I mean, really favorable - Bengals play the Raiders, Browns and Lions in the next three weeks, while the Steelers play the Chiefs and Raiders (with the Ravens sandwiched in between).
- Michael Turner was on his way to unleashing a superb fantasy day (111 yards on just 9 carries) before exiting with an ankle injury. Stay tuned for an update on his status and backup Jason Snelling's viability as a fantasy fill-in.
- Thank you, Jamaal Charles (18 carries, 103 yards, TD), for fulfilling your fantasy promise and helping the Chiefs become the NFL's final team to score a rushing TD this year. Now you face the Steelers. Good luck with that.
- So Ladell Betts subs in for Clinton Portis and has the best day yet by a Redskins back this season (114 yards, TD). Told ya to pick him up - and I'll tell you to start him this week against Dallas, too.
- You figured the Saints skill players would have a field day against the Rams, but surprisingly it was Reggie Bush (two total TDs) and another of my Hot Pickups for the week, Robert Meachem (41-yard catch, 27-yard TD run) who did all the damage.
- Chris Johnson, Fantasy MVP? It's looking good after another absolute nuclear detonation of a game (132 rushing yards and two TDs, plus 100 receiving yards).
- Think Kellen Winslow (7 catches, 102 yards) is glad Tampa Bay finally made a switch at QB? He's the only dependable Buc in fantasy land.
- Vikings WR Sidney Rice (201 receiving yards) now has three monster games in his past four, and upcoming matchups Seattle and Chicago are looking mighty tasty right now.
- Sure, Maurice Jones-Drew's decision to take a knee at the 1-yard line to set up a game-winning FG attempt screwed over some fantasy owners. But it's hard to find a lot of fault with a guy who had 132 yards and a TD already and who leads the league in rushing scores (12).
- Not much to report from the Bengals-Steelers slugfest, fantasy-wise, unless you had Cincinnati's D/ST. The good news if you own guys on either of these teams is they have some favorable schedules coming up. I mean, really favorable - Bengals play the Raiders, Browns and Lions in the next three weeks, while the Steelers play the Chiefs and Raiders (with the Ravens sandwiched in between).
- Michael Turner was on his way to unleashing a superb fantasy day (111 yards on just 9 carries) before exiting with an ankle injury. Stay tuned for an update on his status and backup Jason Snelling's viability as a fantasy fill-in.
- Thank you, Jamaal Charles (18 carries, 103 yards, TD), for fulfilling your fantasy promise and helping the Chiefs become the NFL's final team to score a rushing TD this year. Now you face the Steelers. Good luck with that.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Week 9 Recap
Some random fantasy thoughts while crafting a petition to the Bucs to wear their creamsicle uniforms every week ...
- Michael Turner topped 150 yards for the second straight game and extended his scoring streak to eight straight games (166, 2 TDs). He's looking like the top-3 back we thought he'd be.
- Turner's counterpart, Clinton Portis, was knocked out against Atlanta and is looking doubtful for what could have been a decent Week 10 matchup vs. Denver. Ladell Betts (15 carries, 70 yards, TD) wasn't bad in his stead and could soon be in a Hot Pickups blog post near you.
- Who needs Anquan Boldin? The disgruntled and disappointing Cardinals WR was scratched because of a nagging ankle injury and the field conditions in Chicago (and he was none too pleased with how he was informed of the benching) ... and Kurt Warner still threw 5 TDs.
- Do Matt Forte's 6 catches for 74 yards make up for his 5 carries for 33 yards? I say no.
- Of course Greg Olsen would catch 3 TDs after I benched him at the last minute Saturday night and subbed in Heath Miller (3 catches, 18 yards).
- I gotta give it to Cedric Benson for proving me wrong so far. He's exceeded all my expectations in Cincinnati (117 more yards and a TD vs. Baltimore) and has become a must-start, even Week 10 against Pittsburgh and beyond.
- Laurence Maroney got his biggest workload of the season (20 carries) and scored for the third straight week. Is he finally a dependable fantasy starter? I'd give him a serious look for this week's showdown with Indy.
- The Packers' James Jones now has 3 receiving TDs this year, or 1 more than teammate Greg Jennings. That ain't right.
- Do we have a new fantasy star in Bucs QB Josh Freeman (14-for-31, 205 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT)? Anything's possible, but let's see what happens after the rest of the league gets some actual film on him. Encouraging start, though.
- So Chris Chambers gets released by San Diego last week, picked up by the awful Chiefs this week, plays his first game for K.C. on Sunday and has his most productive day (70 yards, 2 TDs) since Week 2 of last year. Go figure.
- Twelve carries, 22 yards for LaDainian Tomlinson. How the mighty have fallen. Last time he played the Giants, in 2005, he busted them for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Those were the days.
- Alex Smith sure does love him some Vernon Davis (10 catches, 102 yards, both career highs).
- Michael Turner topped 150 yards for the second straight game and extended his scoring streak to eight straight games (166, 2 TDs). He's looking like the top-3 back we thought he'd be.
- Turner's counterpart, Clinton Portis, was knocked out against Atlanta and is looking doubtful for what could have been a decent Week 10 matchup vs. Denver. Ladell Betts (15 carries, 70 yards, TD) wasn't bad in his stead and could soon be in a Hot Pickups blog post near you.
- Who needs Anquan Boldin? The disgruntled and disappointing Cardinals WR was scratched because of a nagging ankle injury and the field conditions in Chicago (and he was none too pleased with how he was informed of the benching) ... and Kurt Warner still threw 5 TDs.
- Do Matt Forte's 6 catches for 74 yards make up for his 5 carries for 33 yards? I say no.
- Of course Greg Olsen would catch 3 TDs after I benched him at the last minute Saturday night and subbed in Heath Miller (3 catches, 18 yards).
- I gotta give it to Cedric Benson for proving me wrong so far. He's exceeded all my expectations in Cincinnati (117 more yards and a TD vs. Baltimore) and has become a must-start, even Week 10 against Pittsburgh and beyond.
- Laurence Maroney got his biggest workload of the season (20 carries) and scored for the third straight week. Is he finally a dependable fantasy starter? I'd give him a serious look for this week's showdown with Indy.
- The Packers' James Jones now has 3 receiving TDs this year, or 1 more than teammate Greg Jennings. That ain't right.
- Do we have a new fantasy star in Bucs QB Josh Freeman (14-for-31, 205 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT)? Anything's possible, but let's see what happens after the rest of the league gets some actual film on him. Encouraging start, though.
- So Chris Chambers gets released by San Diego last week, picked up by the awful Chiefs this week, plays his first game for K.C. on Sunday and has his most productive day (70 yards, 2 TDs) since Week 2 of last year. Go figure.
- Twelve carries, 22 yards for LaDainian Tomlinson. How the mighty have fallen. Last time he played the Giants, in 2005, he busted them for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Those were the days.
- Alex Smith sure does love him some Vernon Davis (10 catches, 102 yards, both career highs).
Saturday, November 07, 2009
Sit 'Em: Week 9
- QB MATT RYAN vs. Washington: Ryan's thrown 6 picks in his past 3 games (vs. 5 TDs), and the Redskins' defense actually isn't so bad (ranked second against the pass, giving up 164.9 yards per game with six TDs). The Falcons might be better served giving the ball to Michael Turner, who topped 150 rushing yards last week, than having Ryan throw a lot against former Falcon DeAngelo Hall and Co.
- RB TASHARD CHOICE at Philadelphia: With Marion Barber and Felix Jones back to near 100 percent, Choice is relegated to third-string duties, as evidenced by his past two games (a combined 4 carries for 11 yards). Don't expect much, if anything, out of him this week.
- WR SAM AIKEN vs. Miami: This guy was a popular pickup after a 54-yard TD catch made the highlight reels two weeks ago in London. That wasn't enough to warrant starting consideration.
LAST WEEK'S PICKS
- Eli Manning was even more atrocious than I imagined against the Eagles (222 yards, 2 INTs, 55.7 QB rating), although he did manage a TD pass.
- Darren Sproles carried the ball 5 times for 38 yards and caught an 8-yard pass. Nothin' special.
- Nate Washington only made 2 catches against the Jags, but one happened to be a TD.
- RB TASHARD CHOICE at Philadelphia: With Marion Barber and Felix Jones back to near 100 percent, Choice is relegated to third-string duties, as evidenced by his past two games (a combined 4 carries for 11 yards). Don't expect much, if anything, out of him this week.
- WR SAM AIKEN vs. Miami: This guy was a popular pickup after a 54-yard TD catch made the highlight reels two weeks ago in London. That wasn't enough to warrant starting consideration.
LAST WEEK'S PICKS
- Eli Manning was even more atrocious than I imagined against the Eagles (222 yards, 2 INTs, 55.7 QB rating), although he did manage a TD pass.
- Darren Sproles carried the ball 5 times for 38 yards and caught an 8-yard pass. Nothin' special.
- Nate Washington only made 2 catches against the Jags, but one happened to be a TD.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Week 8 Recap
Some random fantasy thoughts while tuning into the Fox Favre Cam ....
- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.
- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.
- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.
- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.
- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.
- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.
- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.
- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.
- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.
-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.
- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.
- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.
- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.
- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.
- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.
- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.
- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.
- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.
- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.
- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.
-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.
- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Matt Forte is killing me
Matt Forte is killing me.
I had this guy pegged as my No. 3 overall pick entering this season, right behind Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner. Ahead of Chris Johnson. Ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew. Ahead of Steven Jackson. Ahead of DeAngelo Williams.
How's that looking? Check this out:
PLAYER, YARDS, TDs
Adrian Peterson, 618, 7
Chris Johnson, 596, 2
Steven Jackson, 501, 0
Maurice Jones-Drew, 468, 8
DeAngelo Williams, 372, 4
Matt Forte, 294, 1
In other words, Forte's sucked.
This is a guy who rushed for 1,238 yards last year and 8 TDs. He also caught 63 balls for 477 yards and 4 more scores.
This year, he's caught only 18 balls, none for TDs.
You figured with strong-armed Jay Cutler in town, the Bears might rely a little less on the running game this year. I'll buy that. But didn't you figure Forte might be even more involved in the passing game? And even when they've run the ball with him, he hasn't been very effective - see his two fumbles on the goal line Sunday night against Atlanta.
Blame some of Forte's struggles on the Bears' schedule, which isn't getting any easier in the coming weeks. Five of Chicago's next six opponents rank in the upper-half of the league in run defense. We can only hope the Bears make a sustained effort to run the ball and Forte keeps getting carries and can somehow regain last year's form.
Photo by The Associated Press
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
When stars refuse to shine
I know a bunch of people are bummed by their first- or second-round pick's performance in Week 1. I'm talking about guys like:
Chris Johnson (57 yards, 0 TDs)
Michael Turner (65 yards, 0 TDs)
Matt Forte (55 yards, 0 TDs)
Steve Smith (21 yards, 0 TDs)
Andre Johnson (35 yards, 0 TDs)
Steve Slaton (17 yards, 0 TDs)
Clinton Portis (62 yards, 0 TDs)
Brandon Jacobs (46 yards, 0 TDs)
Anquan Boldin (19 yards, 0 TDs)
and
Steven Jackson (67 yards, 0 TDs)
Those performances were all tough to swallow. But one of the worst mistakes you can make is to overreact to one game. There were reasons for all of those disappointments , from tough matchups (C. Johnson vs. Pittsburgh, Portis vs. the Giants, Slaton and A. Johnson vs. the Jets) to lingering injuries (Boldin) to poor offensive gameplans (Forte) to awful QB play (Smith). But you were willing to spend a high pick and build your team around all of those guys a week ago, so there's no need to go flipping out and totally writing off the season. All of those players are still studs and will serve you well in the weeks ahead.
Chris Johnson (57 yards, 0 TDs)
Michael Turner (65 yards, 0 TDs)
Matt Forte (55 yards, 0 TDs)
Steve Smith (21 yards, 0 TDs)
Andre Johnson (35 yards, 0 TDs)
Steve Slaton (17 yards, 0 TDs)
Clinton Portis (62 yards, 0 TDs)
Brandon Jacobs (46 yards, 0 TDs)
Anquan Boldin (19 yards, 0 TDs)
and
Steven Jackson (67 yards, 0 TDs)
Those performances were all tough to swallow. But one of the worst mistakes you can make is to overreact to one game. There were reasons for all of those disappointments , from tough matchups (C. Johnson vs. Pittsburgh, Portis vs. the Giants, Slaton and A. Johnson vs. the Jets) to lingering injuries (Boldin) to poor offensive gameplans (Forte) to awful QB play (Smith). But you were willing to spend a high pick and build your team around all of those guys a week ago, so there's no need to go flipping out and totally writing off the season. All of those players are still studs and will serve you well in the weeks ahead.
Friday, January 02, 2009
2009 fantasy football awards
As we flip the calendar to 2009, let us reflect on the fantasy season that was. Touchdowns were scored, championships were won and lost, and grown men and women spent the past four months arguing and obsessing over imaginary football teams.
Isn’t fantasy great?
Here are some players who deserve special recognition before we close the book on the 2008 fantasy football season:
MVP AWARD
Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner rushed for more yards, but DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers ran for a league-high 18 TDs and had some truly monster games down the stretch when we needed him most. And he wasn’t drafted in most leagues until at least the fourth round!
BUST OF THE YEAR AWARD
Maybe it’s unfair, Tom Brady gets the dishonor suffering a devastating knee injury in Week 1. If you made Brady your first pick, here’s what you got out of him: seven completions, 76 yards, zero TDs and a season of what ifs.
2008 ALL FANTASY TEAM
QB: Drew Brees; RB1: DeAngelo Williams; RB2: Michael Turner; WR1: Anquan Boldin; WR2: Larry Fitzgerald; TE: Tony Gonzalez; K: Stephen Gostkowski; DEF: Baltimore Ravens.
PICKUP OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Cassel’s own family members wouldn’t have drafted him this year, but the former unknown finished the season as a top-10 fantasy QB filling in for Brady.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Forte and Steve Slaton share the honors after both rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs in their debut seasons.
FUTURE FANTASY STUD AWARD
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree could be a fantasy No. 2 by the end of 2009, provided he winds up in the right offense with the right QB. Oakland Raiders, you’re on the clock.
COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD
Thomas Jones rushed for 13 TDs for the New York Jets — almost doubling his total from the previous two seasons.
MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER AWARD
Let’s say your team has a comfortable lead, but your opponent has one player left in the Monday night game. Who do you fear most? For me it’s Brian Westbrook, a versatile little son-of-a-gun who’s capable of a four-TD effort on any given day. And I should know: I went head-to-head with a Westbrook owner twice in one league this season, and the dude scored SEVEN TDs against me in two games.
ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD
Brady Quinn enjoyed a promising debut as an NFL starter Nov. 9 against Denver, throwing for 239 yards and two TDs. Then he failed to find the end zone in the next two games before suffering a season-ending injury.
BEST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I was high on Kevin Smith and Roddy White as preseason sleepers; I jumped on the bandwagons of Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Tim Hightower early; I wasn’t buying the Darren McFadden or David Garrard hype; I predicted a huge bounce-back by Donovan McNabb (four TDs) in Week 13 against Arizona when everyone said he was done.
WORST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I believed Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards could form the nucleus of a fantasy champion; I picked Cincinnati Bengals tight end Ben Utecht (who?) as one of my top sleepers; I didn’t have Steve Slaton ranked in my top 50 preseason running backs.
RISING STOCK
Kevin Smith, Tyler Thigpen, Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson.
FALLING STOCK
Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Tony Romo, Reggie Bush, Braylon Edwards, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens.
SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2009
1. Adrian Peterson; 2. Michael Turner; 3. Drew Brees; 4. Matt Forte; 5. Chris Johnson; 6. Brian Westbrook; 7. DeAngelo Williams; 8. Randy Moss; 9. Brandon Jacobs; 10. LaDainian Tomlinson
Isn’t fantasy great?
Here are some players who deserve special recognition before we close the book on the 2008 fantasy football season:
MVP AWARD
Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner rushed for more yards, but DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers ran for a league-high 18 TDs and had some truly monster games down the stretch when we needed him most. And he wasn’t drafted in most leagues until at least the fourth round!BUST OF THE YEAR AWARD
Maybe it’s unfair, Tom Brady gets the dishonor suffering a devastating knee injury in Week 1. If you made Brady your first pick, here’s what you got out of him: seven completions, 76 yards, zero TDs and a season of what ifs.
2008 ALL FANTASY TEAM
QB: Drew Brees; RB1: DeAngelo Williams; RB2: Michael Turner; WR1: Anquan Boldin; WR2: Larry Fitzgerald; TE: Tony Gonzalez; K: Stephen Gostkowski; DEF: Baltimore Ravens.
PICKUP OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Cassel’s own family members wouldn’t have drafted him this year, but the former unknown finished the season as a top-10 fantasy QB filling in for Brady.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Forte and Steve Slaton share the honors after both rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs in their debut seasons.
FUTURE FANTASY STUD AWARD
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree could be a fantasy No. 2 by the end of 2009, provided he winds up in the right offense with the right QB. Oakland Raiders, you’re on the clock.
COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD
Thomas Jones rushed for 13 TDs for the New York Jets — almost doubling his total from the previous two seasons.
MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER AWARD
Let’s say your team has a comfortable lead, but your opponent has one player left in the Monday night game. Who do you fear most? For me it’s Brian Westbrook, a versatile little son-of-a-gun who’s capable of a four-TD effort on any given day. And I should know: I went head-to-head with a Westbrook owner twice in one league this season, and the dude scored SEVEN TDs against me in two games.
ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD
Brady Quinn enjoyed a promising debut as an NFL starter Nov. 9 against Denver, throwing for 239 yards and two TDs. Then he failed to find the end zone in the next two games before suffering a season-ending injury.
BEST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I was high on Kevin Smith and Roddy White as preseason sleepers; I jumped on the bandwagons of Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Tim Hightower early; I wasn’t buying the Darren McFadden or David Garrard hype; I predicted a huge bounce-back by Donovan McNabb (four TDs) in Week 13 against Arizona when everyone said he was done.
WORST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I believed Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards could form the nucleus of a fantasy champion; I picked Cincinnati Bengals tight end Ben Utecht (who?) as one of my top sleepers; I didn’t have Steve Slaton ranked in my top 50 preseason running backs.
RISING STOCK
Kevin Smith, Tyler Thigpen, Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson.
FALLING STOCK
Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Tony Romo, Reggie Bush, Braylon Edwards, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens.
SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2009
1. Adrian Peterson; 2. Michael Turner; 3. Drew Brees; 4. Matt Forte; 5. Chris Johnson; 6. Brian Westbrook; 7. DeAngelo Williams; 8. Randy Moss; 9. Brandon Jacobs; 10. LaDainian Tomlinson
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Leave your fantasy prejudices behind
There’s no room for bias or prejudice in fantasy sports.
As much as I personally loathe the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook have been very, very good to my fantasy teams over the years. And as loyal as I am to the New York Giants as a third-generation fan, I realize Eli Manning isn’t always the wisest fantasy choice (although he’s been pretty good so far for the 8-1 G-Men).
Biases and prejudices in fantasy don’t just extend to your favorite football team and its rivals. Sometimes we hold onto unfair opinions about individual players and teams, even when they run contrary to the facts.
Case in point: Kurt Warner. The knock on him for years is that he’s old, injury prone, fumble prone, and his best years were a product of Mike Martz’s system in St. Louis. Maybe there’s some truth to that, and that’s why Warner was passed over on draft day for a multitude of other quarterbacks, including teammate Matt Leinart, who is younger and more party prone.
But if you’ve seen Warner’s Arizona Cardinals play this year or checked the stat sheet, you’d see they are fourth in the league in pass attempts a game (342) but 20th in sacks allowed (16), a formula that has allowed Warner to stay upright, utilize his talented receiving corps and put together an MVP-caliber performance.
Letting go of your preconceived notions and trusting Warner as your every-week starter would be a wise move. And while you’re at it, here are some other old prejudices that need to be erased:
g Any QB would look good throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.
Still not sold on Warner, huh? Having Boldin and Fitzgerald certainly helps, but he’s also made third receiver Steve Breaston (seven catches, 121 yards last week) a legit fantasy pickup and fourth receiver Jerheme Urban (18 catches, two TDs in his past six games) a deep sleeper. So there.
g The Atlanta Falcons stink.
That was the consensus entering this season, and it scared most of us away from anyone wearing black and red other than tailback Michael Turner. But while Turner’s been a stud, Matt Ryan and Roddy White have blossomed into one of the league’s deadliest pass-catch combos in Ryan’s rookie season. All three of those guys are must-starts at this point, particularly against the woeful Denver Broncos defense this week. Even backup running back Jerious Norwood (105 total yards, TD last week) is capable of busting a big play or two.
g The Kansas City Chiefs stink.
OK, maybe this one’s true. But that doesn’t mean quarterback Tyler Thigpen isn’t worth your time. Thigpen, who started the year as KC’s third quarterback, is coming off a three-TD performance against the San Diego Chargers and now faces a New Orleans Saints defense that’s susceptible to the pass. Thigpen has spread the ball around the Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley, plus he’ll have the services of Larry Johnson this week to help take the pressure off through the running game.
As much as I personally loathe the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook have been very, very good to my fantasy teams over the years. And as loyal as I am to the New York Giants as a third-generation fan, I realize Eli Manning isn’t always the wisest fantasy choice (although he’s been pretty good so far for the 8-1 G-Men).
Biases and prejudices in fantasy don’t just extend to your favorite football team and its rivals. Sometimes we hold onto unfair opinions about individual players and teams, even when they run contrary to the facts.
Case in point: Kurt Warner. The knock on him for years is that he’s old, injury prone, fumble prone, and his best years were a product of Mike Martz’s system in St. Louis. Maybe there’s some truth to that, and that’s why Warner was passed over on draft day for a multitude of other quarterbacks, including teammate Matt Leinart, who is younger and more party prone.
But if you’ve seen Warner’s Arizona Cardinals play this year or checked the stat sheet, you’d see they are fourth in the league in pass attempts a game (342) but 20th in sacks allowed (16), a formula that has allowed Warner to stay upright, utilize his talented receiving corps and put together an MVP-caliber performance.
Letting go of your preconceived notions and trusting Warner as your every-week starter would be a wise move. And while you’re at it, here are some other old prejudices that need to be erased:
g Any QB would look good throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.
Still not sold on Warner, huh? Having Boldin and Fitzgerald certainly helps, but he’s also made third receiver Steve Breaston (seven catches, 121 yards last week) a legit fantasy pickup and fourth receiver Jerheme Urban (18 catches, two TDs in his past six games) a deep sleeper. So there.
g The Atlanta Falcons stink.
That was the consensus entering this season, and it scared most of us away from anyone wearing black and red other than tailback Michael Turner. But while Turner’s been a stud, Matt Ryan and Roddy White have blossomed into one of the league’s deadliest pass-catch combos in Ryan’s rookie season. All three of those guys are must-starts at this point, particularly against the woeful Denver Broncos defense this week. Even backup running back Jerious Norwood (105 total yards, TD last week) is capable of busting a big play or two.
g The Kansas City Chiefs stink.
OK, maybe this one’s true. But that doesn’t mean quarterback Tyler Thigpen isn’t worth your time. Thigpen, who started the year as KC’s third quarterback, is coming off a three-TD performance against the San Diego Chargers and now faces a New Orleans Saints defense that’s susceptible to the pass. Thigpen has spread the ball around the Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley, plus he’ll have the services of Larry Johnson this week to help take the pressure off through the running game.
Thursday, October 02, 2008
A bailout plan for your fantasy team
Your stock portfolio is tanking. Your 401(k) took a big hit. Your bank just went under, your job’s offering buyouts, and you can barely afford a gallon of milk or a tank of gas.
And worst of all, your fantasy team is 0-4.
With all the recent talk about the country’s economic mess, it got me thinking: What about a fantasy football bailout? After all, since most of us use fantasy as a pleasant diversion from all the real-life troubles we’re faced with, what fun is it if your team is struggling, too?
If you’ve had a rough four weeks to open the season, consider this column a shred of hope. Unfortunately I can’t pretend to be big government and just swoop in and forgive you for making Jeff Garcia your starting QB; nor can I divide up the points from Brett Favre’s six touchdown passes from last Sunday and distribute them to failing teams at the bottom of the standings. But what I can do is outline my own version of a fantasy bailout plan. It’s a two-pronged strategy, involving guys to start and guys to sit this week, and I guarantee it will cost the American taxpayers nowhere near $700 billion.
Here’s what you need to do to rescue your fantasy team:
Start Michael Turner. He’s alternated good and bad games (rushing totals in his first four games: 220, 42, 104, 56; touchdown totals: two, zero, three, zero). This week looks like a good one against the Green Bay Packers, who are allowing 157 rushing yards a game.
Sit LenDale White. Yes, he had a 1-yard TD run last week. But rookie Chris Johnson had TWO short-yardage scores and is a more productive runner. Plus, the Tennessee Titans are playing the Baltimore Ravens (69 rushing yards a game, zero rush TDs allowed) this week.
Start Trent Edwards. Looking for someone to hold down the fort while Favre is on a bye this week? Edwards has thrown a touchdown every game this year and faces the Arizona Cardinals, who were just gashed by Favre last week.
Sit David Garrard. Everyone’s favorite QB sleeper (well, almost everyone) still hasn’t awakened (two TDs in four games). Now he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers – third in the NFL in pass defense, three TDs allowed, six INTs.
Start Joseph Addai. He’s got four TDs in four career games against the Houston Texans, who’ve given up seven rushing TDs already this year. You do the math.
Sit Felix Jones. The matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals sure seems tempting, but when a rookie running back gets zero carries the week before and is completely healthy (as far as we know), I can’t start him in good conscience the following Sunday.
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
The scoop on the NFL's free-agent frenzy
The NFL's annual free-agent blitz has been in full swing for the past few days, with lots of vets getting kicked to the curb and even more guys cashing in with new multi-million deals. It can get a little dizzying trying to keep track of all the moves, so we've sifted through the transactions so far and examined a few notable relocations (and one big re-signing) and their effects on fantasy football:
• RB Michael Turner to Falcons: Turner's been on everybody's radar the past few seasons as the unofficial "best backup in the league" and a popular handcuff to San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson, but he's rarely made much of a fantasy impact becuase his carries were so sporadic. Now he gets his chance to show off in Atlanta, where he'll only have to compete with Jerious Norwood for playing time - a talented player, for sure, but no LT2.
It's unclear how this situation will unfold: Turner, though listed just an inch shorter than Norwood at 5-10, has a considerable weight advantage (more than 30 pounds) and seems to be more of a power runner to Norwood's speed game. He's always been productive in limited playing time (5.5 yards a carry in his career), but Atlanta obviously plans to give him a good chunk of the carries after committing $34.5 million to him over six years.
Norwood is explosive, though, in his own right (6.2 yards a carry in two seasons), as he showed while playing second fiddle to the since-released Warrick Dunn. Turner will likely be getting more touches and would thus be the more useful fantasy player, but it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. New Falcons coach Mike Smith comes over from Jacksonville, where the Jaguars wrote the book on the modern two-back system with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Both of those guys have been consistent fantasy producers while sharing time, and Turner and Norwood might do the same.
• Patriots re-sign WR Randy Moss: Good news for Moss and Tom Brady owners, bad for the rest of the league. In fact, it's the best possible news for Moss' value, as he had his greatest season playing for the near-perfect Pats as part of a record-busting duo. The prospect of Wes Welker being New England's top WR wasn't appealing for anybody involved, but now you can sleep easily and consider Moss and Brady both top-notch options at their respective positions again next year. As he said Monday on his official Web site, Moss has "unfinished business to take care of" in 2008 - music to your ears if you've got him in a keeper league.
• WR Donte' Stallworth to Browns: This move probably doesn't change Stallworth's value too much: he's still an inconsistent deep threat who's usually good for two or three outstanding fantasy weeks, depending on the situation, and a lot of clunkers. But it certainly helps recently re-signed Derek Anderson (or that young backup they've got, what's his name again?) to have another target, and it might even create more openings for Braylon Edwards and Kevin Winslow.
• WR Bernard Berrian to Vikings: We know the kid's got speed, but he moves from one ugly QB situation to another with the shift from Chicago to Minnesota. He's clearly the Vikings' No. 1 receiver right now, but that doesn't mean a whole lot with Tarvaris Jackson "throwing" him the ball, at least the Jackson of 2007. I have a hard time seeing him surpassing his 951 yards/five TDs from last season unless the QB play in Minnesota improves drastically. That means he's still a fantasy No. 3 WR that you play when the matchup suits you.
• TE Alge Crumpler to Titans: It wasn't long ago our buddy Algernon was a top-five tight end option, but his reputation took a hit during last year's train wreck of a season in the ATL. He did manage 444 receiving yards and five TDs, but he also butted heads with Bobby Petrino and was bothered by bad knees before being released - never a good sign. If Crumpler can hold up, however, he'll be a definite upgrade over what Tennessee had as red-zone options. He should also be accustomed to QB Vince Young's playmaking style after enjoying his best seasons when paired with Michael Vick. He's no longer an upper-tier TE, but assuming his knees are OK, I'd still put him toward the bottom of a growing pool of second-tier TEs with contemporaries Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap and others.
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