Week 1 Recap, Part I: Foster's for real

A few musings from Week 1's action while I thank the football gods for DirecTV's NFL Sunday Ticket free preview:

- Welcome to fantasy stardom, Arian Foster (231 yards, 3 TDs). We’re waiting with baited breath to see what you do in Week 2.

- Somebody slow down the C.J. Spiller bandwagon. Seven carries for 6 yards isn’t going to cut it as a fantasy star yet.

- For those who were wondering who would be Mike Martz’s most utilized wideout in Chicago (Devin Hester? Johnny Knox? Devin Aromashodu)?), the surprising answer was his RB, Matt Forte, who led the team with 7 catches for a whopping 151 yards and 2 TDs. The other three combined for 9 receptions.

- Roll on, Chris Johnson (27 carries, 142 yards, 2 TDs).

- Guess Wes Welker is OK – 11 targets, 8 catches, 2 TDs. Those who got him at a discount price this year because of the injury concerns have to be smiling right about now, especially with the Jets up next on the Pats’ schedule. In his last four games vs. Gang Green, the Welk Man has averaged 7 catches for 92 yards.

- Giants WR Hakeem Nicks established himself as a fantasy force with 3 TDs against Carolina. Granted, he only had 4 catches, but Eli Manning targeted him 8 times, as many as Steve Smith.

- Roddy White’s stat line against Pittsburgh was strong (13 catches, 111 yards), but the most eye-opening number was the whopping 23 targets. With those kind of looks he could demolish Arizona this week.

- Could Peyton Hillis be a factor in the Browns’ backfield? Sure, given the fact he had 9 carries (as many as starter Jerome Harrison) and also scored a TD.

Using the NFL schedule to your advantage

As the days get colder and the NFL moves into Week 12, our thoughts begin to turn toward playoff time.

Every week is critical now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel and begin to position our teams for a postseason run. It’s time to take a serious look at the remainder of the NFL schedule and the matchups that will help you maximize your fantasy team’s potential.

I often use statistical rankings as a guide for which teams are the toughest and easiest to run and pass against. Of course anything can happen on any given week, but a quarterback who faces a few of the league’s 10 weakest pass defenses in the coming weeks is more likely to outperform his peers and give your team a boost in these critical games.

I’ve analyzed the schedule and crunched the numbers for you. Here are some of the players with the best and worst matchups in the next few weeks:

FULL SPEED AHEAD

g Matt Ryan and Roddy White of the Atlanta Falcons bobbled last week’s potential game-winning bomb, but after a tough test this week against Carolina, they should shine against San Diego and New Orleans in Weeks 13 and 14.

g Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte’s been on a decent roll lately. That should continue this week against St. Louis and pick up again when he closes out the season vs. Green Bay and Houston.

g Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo’s pinky shouldn’t be much of a problem against San Francisco this week or Seattle the next - assuming he's done hanging out with homeless dudes.

g Jamal Lewis hasn’t cracked 90 rushing yards in a game this season for the Cleveland Browns. His best chances come when his team hosts Houston this week and Indianapolis the next — then the fun’s over at Tennessee.

g As if the Titans’ running duo of LenDale White and Chris Johnson wasn’t already valuable, check out these upcoming opponents: Detroit (Week 13), Cleveland (Week 14), Houston (Week 15) and Indianapolis (Week 17).

g Miami Dolphins QB Chad Pennington gets to air it out against St. Louis, San Francisco, Kansas City and his old team, the Jets, in four of the season’s final five weeks.

g Jeff Garcia of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could do some damage against Detroit this week, New Orleans the next and San Diego’s league-worst pass defense in Week 16, aka the Super Bowl in most fantasy leagues.

g Brett Favre and his receiving corps could put on a show against Denver (Week 13), San Francisco (Week 14) and Seattle (Week 16).

g Buffalo’s Trent Edwards and Lee Evans have been relegated to the bench in most leagues. But they might be able to get back on track thanks to a schedule that includes Kansas City, San Francisco, the New York Jets and Denver.

NOT SO FAST

g Marion Barber deserves the benefit of the doubt, but his Cowboys face a brutal stretch of run-stuffers starting in Week 13 — Pittsburgh, the Giants and Baltimore.

g Detroit Lions rookie RB Kevin Smith also must run a brutal three-game gauntlet starting this week — Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota.

g It looks like Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is starting to break out of his funk, and facing Cincinnati this week might continue the trend. But after that he meets four brick walls known as New England, Dallas, Baltimore and Tennessee.

g You hardly ever sit Saints QB Drew Brees, but be warned: He faces two of the league’s top five pass defenses (Green Bay, Tampa Bay) the next two weeks.

g Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis has been excellent this year when healthy. So he might just be a little less excellent against the Giants and Ravens in Weeks 13 and 14.

Leave your fantasy prejudices behind

There’s no room for bias or prejudice in fantasy sports.

As much as I personally loathe the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook have been very, very good to my fantasy teams over the years. And as loyal as I am to the New York Giants as a third-generation fan, I realize Eli Manning isn’t always the wisest fantasy choice (although he’s been pretty good so far for the 8-1 G-Men).

Biases and prejudices in fantasy don’t just extend to your favorite football team and its rivals. Sometimes we hold onto unfair opinions about individual players and teams, even when they run contrary to the facts.

Case in point: Kurt Warner. The knock on him for years is that he’s old, injury prone, fumble prone, and his best years were a product of Mike Martz’s system in St. Louis. Maybe there’s some truth to that, and that’s why Warner was passed over on draft day for a multitude of other quarterbacks, including teammate Matt Leinart, who is younger and more party prone.





But if you’ve seen Warner’s Arizona Cardinals play this year or checked the stat sheet, you’d see they are fourth in the league in pass attempts a game (342) but 20th in sacks allowed (16), a formula that has allowed Warner to stay upright, utilize his talented receiving corps and put together an MVP-caliber performance.



Letting go of your preconceived notions and trusting Warner as your every-week starter would be a wise move. And while you’re at it, here are some other old prejudices that need to be erased:

g Any QB would look good throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.

Still not sold on Warner, huh? Having Boldin and Fitzgerald certainly helps, but he’s also made third receiver Steve Breaston (seven catches, 121 yards last week) a legit fantasy pickup and fourth receiver Jerheme Urban (18 catches, two TDs in his past six games) a deep sleeper. So there.

g The Atlanta Falcons stink.

That was the consensus entering this season, and it scared most of us away from anyone wearing black and red other than tailback Michael Turner. But while Turner’s been a stud, Matt Ryan and Roddy White have blossomed into one of the league’s deadliest pass-catch combos in Ryan’s rookie season. All three of those guys are must-starts at this point, particularly against the woeful Denver Broncos defense this week. Even backup running back Jerious Norwood (105 total yards, TD last week) is capable of busting a big play or two.

g The Kansas City Chiefs stink.

OK, maybe this one’s true. But that doesn’t mean quarterback Tyler Thigpen isn’t worth your time. Thigpen, who started the year as KC’s third quarterback, is coming off a three-TD performance against the San Diego Chargers and now faces a New Orleans Saints defense that’s susceptible to the pass. Thigpen has spread the ball around the Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley, plus he’ll have the services of Larry Johnson this week to help take the pressure off through the running game.