Week 1 Recap, Part I: Foster's for real

A few musings from Week 1's action while I thank the football gods for DirecTV's NFL Sunday Ticket free preview:

- Welcome to fantasy stardom, Arian Foster (231 yards, 3 TDs). We’re waiting with baited breath to see what you do in Week 2.

- Somebody slow down the C.J. Spiller bandwagon. Seven carries for 6 yards isn’t going to cut it as a fantasy star yet.

- For those who were wondering who would be Mike Martz’s most utilized wideout in Chicago (Devin Hester? Johnny Knox? Devin Aromashodu)?), the surprising answer was his RB, Matt Forte, who led the team with 7 catches for a whopping 151 yards and 2 TDs. The other three combined for 9 receptions.

- Roll on, Chris Johnson (27 carries, 142 yards, 2 TDs).

- Guess Wes Welker is OK – 11 targets, 8 catches, 2 TDs. Those who got him at a discount price this year because of the injury concerns have to be smiling right about now, especially with the Jets up next on the Pats’ schedule. In his last four games vs. Gang Green, the Welk Man has averaged 7 catches for 92 yards.

- Giants WR Hakeem Nicks established himself as a fantasy force with 3 TDs against Carolina. Granted, he only had 4 catches, but Eli Manning targeted him 8 times, as many as Steve Smith.

- Roddy White’s stat line against Pittsburgh was strong (13 catches, 111 yards), but the most eye-opening number was the whopping 23 targets. With those kind of looks he could demolish Arizona this week.

- Could Peyton Hillis be a factor in the Browns’ backfield? Sure, given the fact he had 9 carries (as many as starter Jerome Harrison) and also scored a TD.

Week 1 Sit 'Em: Owens, Mason, Jackson

- TERRELL OWENS at Patriots: T.O. hasn't fared well historically against New England. In four career meetings with the Pats he's averaged just 48 yards a game, his third fewest against any opponent - and he's played 'em all. Sure, this year's Pats' secondary is largely untested, and the Bengals will probably want to feed T.O. enough passes to keep him happy, but I just have a hard time believing he'll be a consistent performer anymore. I'm not getting any popcorn ready this week.

- DERRICK MASON at Jets: T.J. Houshmandzadeh's arrival in Baltimore is bad news for Mason. Now Ravens QB Joe Flacco has two aging possession receivers to choose from. There's a decent chance they'll consistently cancel each other out for fantasy purposes, and that's not even mentioning the arrival of big-ticket WR import Anquan Boldin. Mason has gone from undervalued fantasy commodity to a risky play. Factor in the possibility of Mason spending some time on Revis Island this weekend, and he has to stay on your bench until further notice.

- FRED JACKSON vs. Dolphins: I happen to like Freddie Jax a lot, but this isn't the week to use him. Not with Jackson still nursing a broken hand that cost him a month of the preseason and with rookie C.J. Spiller being named the starter. Jackson might have some fantasy value this year, but this isn't the week.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/25 Bust of the Day: C.J. Spiller

RB C.J. SPILLER, Bills



Fantasy geeks are going ga-ga over Spiller this preseason, and I can't say I blame them. If you've seen the speedster play at Clemson, caught the preseason highlight in the video above, or heard the news about fellow Buffalo backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson being injured, there's much to be excited about.

I don't doubt that Spiller has the talent to be a future NFL star, and I believe he'll be a worthwhile fantasy choice this year. I'm just cautioning that the rookie deserves to be an RB3 at the start of the year, no higher. Yes he's got a chance to be Buffalo's No. 1 back in Week 1 - but it's Buffalo! The offensive line was terrible last year and the QB play was subpar, and they've done next to nothing to improve either in 2010. The versatile Jackson did manage a 1,000-yard rushing total last year with the Bills, but is Spiller ready to take on that kind of workhorse role? He was originally slotted in as a "hybrid" player, a change-of-pace back, and he may still play that role when Jackson returns somewhere by Week 2. But I question whether new Bills head man Chan Gailey (who hasn't been an NFL head coach since 1999) even knows what he's doing here and will be able to maximize Spiller's potential.

Again, I believe in the talent, but I can't elevate Spiller to being a top-20 RB yet. I like him as a No. 3, but even then I'd be more inclined to take another rookie runner, Jahvid Best, a Spiller clone who has a better supporting cast around him in Detroit.

8/4 Sleeper of the Day: Ryan Matthews

RB RYAN MATTHEWS, CHARGERS

Matthews may not be as flashy or as well known as fellow rookie RBs C.J. Spiller or Jahvid Best, but he’s stepping into an ideal situation in San Diego, at least for our purposes. The first-rounder from Fresno State will be a part of an explosive Chargers offense with a good offensive line, and with LaDainian Tomlinson out of the picture, his only competition for carries is the diminutive Darren Sproles.

Much of the country didn’t see Matthews tearing it up in the WAC last year, where he led the nation with 1,808 rushing yards (6.6 a carry, 150 a game) and scored 19 TDs on 276 carries. He’s proven himself as a workhorse, but he’s also got quite a burst (seven TD runs of 50 yards or more last year).

If all goes well, Matthews should surpass LT2’s 2009 stats, and while I have a hard time counting on a rookie as my No. 1 RB, he’ll make an excellent No. 2 with upside.

2010 NFL Draft's best fantasy prospects

Now that the dust has settled from ESPN'S three-day NFL Draft extravaganza (is that Alicia Keys/Jay-Z song stuck in anybody else's head?), there's a rush to grade every team's picks. While it's way too early to truly assess a draft class - generally it takes three years to really see how one pans out - there's no need to wait for some fantasy analysis.

So which skill players taken over the weekend in NYC are ready to contribute to your fantasy team in 2010?

QBs get all the headlines, but they rarely become fantasy factors in their first year. I'm not too interested in having Sam Bradford or Jimmy Cluasen on my squad as rookies. Colt McCoy probably won't even suit up in 2010. And we've already dissected Tim Tebow's fantasy prospects in this space. I'll pass.

I'd already tabbed C.J. Spiller as the most NFL-ready fantasy contributor heading into the draft, but unfortunately he landed in Buffalo, where there isn't much of an offensive line to speak of, the QB situation is unsettled to say the least, and Spiller will have to compete with Fred Jackson and Marhsawn Lynch for touches (assuming both stick around). Spiller's one to watch, but being a Bill is a bit of a bummer.

Jahvid Best has it a little better in Detroit, where his main backfield competition will come from Kevin Smith, who's still recovering from major knee surgery. The speedy Best can make an instant impact, provided the Lions can figure out how to block for him.

Ryan Matthews is the first-round RB who may have the easiest path to fantasy relevance, as he was drafted by San Diego to be LaDainian Tomlinson's successor and where Darren Sproles is still just a change-of-pace back. The Fresno State product will get first crack at carrying the rock in a powerful Chargers offense.

Also, don't forget about Heisman finalist Toby Gerhart, who becomes a potential handcuff for Vikings starter Adrian Peterson as he tries to fill the departed Chester Taylor's shoes.

Among wideouts, the two most intriguing, fantasy-wise, are Dez Bryant in Dallas and Golden Tate in Seattle. The Cowboys' selection of Bryant is pretty much an admission that the Roy Williams experiment has been a failure, and if the rookie can earn enough playing time and find some chemistry with Tony Romo, good things could be in store. Same goes for Tate, who could become an important piece of Pete Carroll's offense with the Seahawks.

I'm also interested to see Arrelious Benn in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform. The kid's probably been NFL-ready since his freshman year at Illinois, and he'll have every opportunity to step in and be the go-to receiver young Bucs QB Josh Freeman sorely needs.

Demaryius Thomas also has a shot at immediate playing time for Josh McDaniels in Denver, but the Broncos' QB situation isn't quite ideal.

One more 2010 draftee to keep an eye on: Taylor Price in New England. Price flew under the radar at Ohio University, but the Patriots have a way of making unheralded players into stars.

2009 Fantasy Awards, Pt. 2

ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD

Cleveland WR Mohamed Massaqoi is actually a double winner. After starting the year with two 1-catch games, he tantalized everyone with a 8-catch, 148-yard showing in Week 3 against Cincy. The following week? One catch. A few more lackluster games followed, and he was dropped from almost every league around. Then in Week 11, he catches 5 balls for 115 yards and a TD against Detroit. With Braylon Edwards traded to the Jets, some thought he might actually be a part of the offense and snatched him back up again. The next week? One catch.

THANKS FOR NOTHING AWARD

49ers rookie Glen Coffee got rave reviews in training camp and was hyped as a big sleeper in some circles. "The Niners are going to run wild!" they said. "Coffee's a must-handcuff to Frank Gore!" they said. When Gore got hurt in Week 3 and was to miss at least 3 weeks, there was a mad rush to the waiver wire to get Coffee. To make it even more enticing, he was playing the Rams in Week 4. And here's what he did: 24 carries, 74 yards (3.1 average), 0 TDs. The following week he did score a TD, but ran the ball 12 times for just 45 yards. And then he was basically never heard from again.

FUTURE FANTASY STUD

RB C.J. Spiller from Clemson is probably a lock to go in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft, and if he lands on the right team, he has the size and the high-end speed to be a No. 1 back immediately next year. He could easily make the kind of contribution Knowshon Moreno (947 yards, 7 TDs) did this year as a rookie.

RISING STOCK

Jamaal Charles, Jerome Harrison, Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Steve Smith (Giants), Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Matt Moore, Aaron Rodgers

FALLING STOCK

Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook, Steve Smith (Panthers), Roy Williams, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Cassell

SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2010

1. Chris Johnson, 2. Adrian Peterson, 3. Drew Brees, 4. Maurice Jones-Drew, 5. Andre Johnson, 6. Ray Rice, 7. Peyton Manning, 8. Aaron Rodgers, 9. Randy Moss, 10. Frank Gore