Week 1 Sit 'Em: Owens, Mason, Jackson

- TERRELL OWENS at Patriots: T.O. hasn't fared well historically against New England. In four career meetings with the Pats he's averaged just 48 yards a game, his third fewest against any opponent - and he's played 'em all. Sure, this year's Pats' secondary is largely untested, and the Bengals will probably want to feed T.O. enough passes to keep him happy, but I just have a hard time believing he'll be a consistent performer anymore. I'm not getting any popcorn ready this week.

- DERRICK MASON at Jets: T.J. Houshmandzadeh's arrival in Baltimore is bad news for Mason. Now Ravens QB Joe Flacco has two aging possession receivers to choose from. There's a decent chance they'll consistently cancel each other out for fantasy purposes, and that's not even mentioning the arrival of big-ticket WR import Anquan Boldin. Mason has gone from undervalued fantasy commodity to a risky play. Factor in the possibility of Mason spending some time on Revis Island this weekend, and he has to stay on your bench until further notice.

- FRED JACKSON vs. Dolphins: I happen to like Freddie Jax a lot, but this isn't the week to use him. Not with Jackson still nursing a broken hand that cost him a month of the preseason and with rookie C.J. Spiller being named the starter. Jackson might have some fantasy value this year, but this isn't the week.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/25 Bust of the Day: C.J. Spiller

RB C.J. SPILLER, Bills



Fantasy geeks are going ga-ga over Spiller this preseason, and I can't say I blame them. If you've seen the speedster play at Clemson, caught the preseason highlight in the video above, or heard the news about fellow Buffalo backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson being injured, there's much to be excited about.

I don't doubt that Spiller has the talent to be a future NFL star, and I believe he'll be a worthwhile fantasy choice this year. I'm just cautioning that the rookie deserves to be an RB3 at the start of the year, no higher. Yes he's got a chance to be Buffalo's No. 1 back in Week 1 - but it's Buffalo! The offensive line was terrible last year and the QB play was subpar, and they've done next to nothing to improve either in 2010. The versatile Jackson did manage a 1,000-yard rushing total last year with the Bills, but is Spiller ready to take on that kind of workhorse role? He was originally slotted in as a "hybrid" player, a change-of-pace back, and he may still play that role when Jackson returns somewhere by Week 2. But I question whether new Bills head man Chan Gailey (who hasn't been an NFL head coach since 1999) even knows what he's doing here and will be able to maximize Spiller's potential.

Again, I believe in the talent, but I can't elevate Spiller to being a top-20 RB yet. I like him as a No. 3, but even then I'd be more inclined to take another rookie runner, Jahvid Best, a Spiller clone who has a better supporting cast around him in Detroit.

Hot Pickups: Week 13

FOUR STARS (Out of five)

RB FRED JACKSON, Bills: Freddie started the year off red hot but had been simply mediocre in recent weeks. That changed last Sunday against Miami when Jackson got 15 carries (his most in five weeks, and 12 more than teammate Marshawn Lynch) and scored his first two TDs of the season. I like Jackson on Thursday against the Jets, and I love him the following week at K.C.

WR KENNY BRITT, Titans: Think the rookie is happy with Tennessee's switch to Vince Young at QB? Britt caught his first two NFL TDs in the past two weeks and the best game of his young career on Sunday in Arizona (7 catches, 128 yards, game-winning TD). I like Britt on Sunday against Indy and I love him the following week against St. Louis.


THREE STARS

WR JASON AVANT, Eagles: With DeSean Jackson likely to sit this week with a concussion, there could be a bunch of balls headed Avant's way. He'd already seen increased action in recent weeks, including 5 catches for 94 yards last Sunday, and the Falcons' secondary has shown some cracks recently.

Sit 'Em: Week 5

- WR EDDIE ROYAL vs. New England: Your patience has got to be wearing thin with this guy (8 catches in 2009), and he's facing a top 10 passing defense. No thanks.

- RBs MICHAEL BUSH and JUSTIN FARGAS at N.Y. Giants: You may be tempted to use one of these guys in the wake of starter Darren McFadden's injury. Don't. Without any semblance of a Raiders passing game, odds are the Giants will be loading up against the run no matter who's in the backfield.

- QB MARK SANCHEZ at Miami: The Jets rookie had his "welcome to the NFL" game last week at New Orleans and will play in another hostile road environment against a good Dolphins D. There are safer bye-week fill-ins available.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Fred Jackson had his lowest rushing total of the season (42 yards) and caught 3 passes for 26 yards.

- Matt Cassel tossed two TDs in garbage time ... but he passed for only 127 yards.

- TJ Houshmandzadeh had 8 catches for 103 yards against the Colts, his best game so far this year ... oops.

Sit 'Em: Week 4

- FRED JACKSON at Dolphins: Freddie J has been a fantasy revelation so far, but he's got two major strikes against him this week: Miami's defense is one of the league's toughest against the run (66 yards allowed per game), and Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension this week. Hold onto Jackson, but sit him this week and wait to see how the Bills' timeshare pans out.

- MATT CASSEL vs. Giants: Let's think about this: He's coming off a game where he threw for 90 yards, his top target (Dwayne Bowe) has a hamstring injury and might not even play, and he's facing the league's top pass defense. It all adds up to keeping Cassel on your bench, unless you're desperate.

- TJ HOUSHMANDZADEH at Colts: He's a borderline play in PPR leagues this week, but even that's troublesome with Seneca Wallace under center (without Walter Jones protecting him) for the Seahawks. TJ hasn't topped 62 yards or scored a TD yet this season.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a big upset of the Steelers, but it wasn't helpful for fantasy purposes (183 yards, 1 TD), as I predicted.

- Joseph Addai got the job done (13 carries, 63 yards and a receiving TD) against Arizona. But Donald Brown (112 total yards) won't back down in his push for more playing time.

- Roy Williams had his highest reception total of the season (a whopping 4, for 75 yards) against Carolina but still hasn't justified his lofty draft status.

Week 2 recap

Plenty of monster (and not-so-monster) performances to dissect from Week 2:

-Hats off to Tennessee's Chris Johnson for looking very much like a top-3 running back after a lackluster Week 1: 16 carries, 197 yards, 2 TDs; 9 catches, 87 yards, TD. Just an awesome performance from a super-talented player.

-Another Johnson came up big Sunday, too: Houston's Andre Johnson, in the same game (10 catches, 149 yards, 2 TDs). I had the pleasure of starting both of them on the same team in one of my leagues. I won.

- Things aren't going as well for Houston's Steve Slaton, who now has 51 total rushing yards in two games and 0 TDs. The good news is after opening the year against two challenging defenses, things should get a little easier in the coming weeks (Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona).

- Frank Gore actually broke the 200-yard barrier (207 on just 16 carries) and scored twice. He also caught 5 passes for 39 yards for good measure and put the league on notice that the Niners' run game is no joke.

- Jake Delhomme wasn't great against Atlanta but he'll hold onto his starting job for the time being, which is good news for Steve Smith (8 catches, 131 yards) and his owners.

- Drew Brees halved last week's TD output but was still excellent (311 yards, 3 TDs), utilizing all his available weapons. And Mike Bell continues to run well (17 carries, 86 yards, TD) with Pierre Thomas on the shelf.

- Big effort from Cedric Benson for the Bengals (29 carries, 141 yards), but don't get too excited - he's got some brutal matchups on the horizon (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice and Chicago) in the next seven weeks.

- Aaron Rodgers hasn't lit it up the way I expected - two TDs in two games now. It doesn't help when you're sacked 5 times and your best WR, Greg Jennings, is held catchless. Here's hoping Rodgers and the Packers can do some damage against St. Louis.

- Buffalo's Fred Jackson is the real deal (163 rush yards, 25 receiving yards) and is a must-start next week against New Orleans. Does Marshawn Lynch HAVE to come back?

- Philip Rivers did just fine without a running game (436 yards, 2 TDs). Does LaDainian Tomlinson HAVE to come back?

Hot pickups: Week 2

FIVE STARS (Out of five)

- RB CADILLAC WILLIAMS, Bucs: Finally healthy (for now) and getting first crack at carries. Ride him while he's hot and as long as his legs hold up.

- RB FRED JACKSON, Bills: Was a more effective weapon for Buffalo than Terrell Owens against the Patriots (15 carries, 57 yards; 5 catches, 83 yards, TD). With Marshawn Lynch suspended for two more games, Jackson gets to continue his starring role against a Bucs D that was steamrolled by Dallas for 462 yards of total offense.


FOUR STARS

- QB JOE FLACCO, Ravens: Worried about Donovan McNabb's status in Week 2? Why not go whacko for Flacco? He lit up the Chiefs for 307 yards and 3 TDs and should have some success against the Chargers this week.


THREE STARS

- TE TODD HEAP, Ravens: Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated (5 catches, 74 yards, TD in Week 1). If oft-injured replacement L.J. Smith can't get on the field, Heap might prove he still has something left.


TWO STARS

- WR LOUIS MURPHY, Raiders: The former Florida Gator caught a TD in Monday's opener against San Diego and had another score taken away on a controversial ruling. The rookie may prove to be JaMarcus Russell's favorite target this year - but just how valuable that makes him for fantasy purposes is in the eye of the beholder. There are sure to be bumps all the way, but there might be a few more bombs awaiting him.

Three teams I'm trying to avoid

Call me crazy, but an NFL team firing its offensive coordinator less than two weeks before the start of the regular season usually isn't a formula for offensive excellence. That's why I'm trying to avoid most players from these three franchises:

CHIEFS

Of all three of these revamped/reworked/rebuilt offenses I'm talking about, the Chiefs were perhaps the most intriguing. Even though now-departed Chan Gailey was a holdover from the previous (unsuccessful) coaching regime, new K.C. head man Todd Haley is the mastermind behind the Cardinals' electrifying offense from a year ago. The firing of Gailey might not make a huge difference, but there were already warning signs about this offense: the poor offensive line play of the past few years, the decline of Larry Johnson and his various issues, the departure of Tony Gonzalez and the preseason injury suffered by new QB Matt Cassel. The combination of all red flags makes K.C.'s playmakers a little less desirable than they seemed during the offseason. WR Dwayne Bowe and Cassel should probably drop out of the preseason top 10 at their respective positions, and I don't trust LJ as anything more than a No. 3 RB at best. Still like Jamaal Charles as a deep sleeper though.

BUCS

The firing of OC Jeff Jagodzinski kind of came out of left field. Remember when the guy was a big NFL head coaching prospect? Well whatever, I guess being faced with the prospect of Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown as his starting QB, he was probably set up to fail anyway. McCown was traded to Jacksonville over the weekend, and Leftwich is officially the Bucs' Week 1 starter now, which shouldn't excite you much. It doesn't bode well for Antonio Bryant or Kellen Winslow either, so bump them down a peg from wherever they would be with a better QB at the helm. The Bucs do have a promising offensive line and should be able to to run the ball; the problem is they have three decent RBs to share the load, which means you have to be a bit skeptical of Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams until we see their roles.

BILLS

Buffalo's Turk Schonert is another assistant coach who never even got to start the season in his new position. He's blasting head coach Dick Jauron because the offensive playcalling "wasn't simple enough." A little imagination might not hurt after the Bills have been so ineffective on offense the past few years. Terrell Owens certainly livens things up a bit, but I'm proceeding with caution and treating him like a No. 2 fantasy receiver. Trent Edwards is no Tony Romo (or Donovan McNabb or Jeff Garcia) at this point and has a long way to go before he's anything more than a low-end fantasy backup. Lee Evans is tantalizing as always but seems perpetually bound to disappoint no matter what you expect out of him. And it's tough to take a chance on either Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson when you know there will be a major shakeup in their roles once Lynch serves his season-opening four-game suspension.

T.O. to .... Buffalo?

The people have spoken, and I'm back to the blog!

The news that brought me out of my winter hibernation: Terrell Owens is a Buffalo Bill.

OK, didn't see that coming. I was thinking the Raiders, maybe the Redskins ... but this is truly a fascinating move. T.O. goes from America's Team to the NFL's hinterlands, a team desperate for some offensive juice - if not the attention-grabbing, chemistry-ruining nonsense that comes with him.

We're all sick of the endless ESPN drama, but it's easy to forget Owens has actually been a very productive player on the field, topping 1,000 yards and scoring at least 10 TDs in each of the past three seasons in Big D. Can he replicate those numbers in cold and windy Buffalo, at age 35, with Trent Edwards throwing him the ball and fewer Pro Bowl-caliber players surrounding him? I'm not willing to bet my first-round pick on it ... but I do believe Owens will sbe a No. 1 fantasy receiver in 2009. The track record is there - he's produced everywhere he's played, at least until he inevitably wears out his welcome.

As for Edwards and the rest of the Bills' skill guys - Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, etc. - Owens' arrival should be reason to celebrate. What had been an anemic offense just got a whole lot more explosive, and all of their stats should see a boost next season as a result.