RB C.J. SPILLER, Bills
Fantasy geeks are going ga-ga over Spiller this preseason, and I can't say I blame them. If you've seen the speedster play at Clemson, caught the preseason highlight in the video above, or heard the news about fellow Buffalo backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson being injured, there's much to be excited about.
I don't doubt that Spiller has the talent to be a future NFL star, and I believe he'll be a worthwhile fantasy choice this year. I'm just cautioning that the rookie deserves to be an RB3 at the start of the year, no higher. Yes he's got a chance to be Buffalo's No. 1 back in Week 1 - but it's Buffalo! The offensive line was terrible last year and the QB play was subpar, and they've done next to nothing to improve either in 2010. The versatile Jackson did manage a 1,000-yard rushing total last year with the Bills, but is Spiller ready to take on that kind of workhorse role? He was originally slotted in as a "hybrid" player, a change-of-pace back, and he may still play that role when Jackson returns somewhere by Week 2. But I question whether new Bills head man Chan Gailey (who hasn't been an NFL head coach since 1999) even knows what he's doing here and will be able to maximize Spiller's potential.
Again, I believe in the talent, but I can't elevate Spiller to being a top-20 RB yet. I like him as a No. 3, but even then I'd be more inclined to take another rookie runner, Jahvid Best, a Spiller clone who has a better supporting cast around him in Detroit.
Showing posts with label Marshawn Lynch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marshawn Lynch. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Hot Pickups: Week 13
FOUR STARS (Out of five)
RB FRED JACKSON, Bills: Freddie started the year off red hot but had been simply mediocre in recent weeks. That changed last Sunday against Miami when Jackson got 15 carries (his most in five weeks, and 12 more than teammate Marshawn Lynch) and scored his first two TDs of the season. I like Jackson on Thursday against the Jets, and I love him the following week at K.C.
WR KENNY BRITT, Titans: Think the rookie is happy with Tennessee's switch to Vince Young at QB? Britt caught his first two NFL TDs in the past two weeks and the best game of his young career on Sunday in Arizona (7 catches, 128 yards, game-winning TD). I like Britt on Sunday against Indy and I love him the following week against St. Louis.
THREE STARS
WR JASON AVANT, Eagles: With DeSean Jackson likely to sit this week with a concussion, there could be a bunch of balls headed Avant's way. He'd already seen increased action in recent weeks, including 5 catches for 94 yards last Sunday, and the Falcons' secondary has shown some cracks recently.
RB FRED JACKSON, Bills: Freddie started the year off red hot but had been simply mediocre in recent weeks. That changed last Sunday against Miami when Jackson got 15 carries (his most in five weeks, and 12 more than teammate Marshawn Lynch) and scored his first two TDs of the season. I like Jackson on Thursday against the Jets, and I love him the following week at K.C.
WR KENNY BRITT, Titans: Think the rookie is happy with Tennessee's switch to Vince Young at QB? Britt caught his first two NFL TDs in the past two weeks and the best game of his young career on Sunday in Arizona (7 catches, 128 yards, game-winning TD). I like Britt on Sunday against Indy and I love him the following week against St. Louis.
THREE STARS
WR JASON AVANT, Eagles: With DeSean Jackson likely to sit this week with a concussion, there could be a bunch of balls headed Avant's way. He'd already seen increased action in recent weeks, including 5 catches for 94 yards last Sunday, and the Falcons' secondary has shown some cracks recently.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Hot pickups: Week 2
FIVE STARS (Out of five)
- RB CADILLAC WILLIAMS, Bucs: Finally healthy (for now) and getting first crack at carries. Ride him while he's hot and as long as his legs hold up.
- RB FRED JACKSON, Bills: Was a more effective weapon for Buffalo than Terrell Owens against the Patriots (15 carries, 57 yards; 5 catches, 83 yards, TD). With Marshawn Lynch suspended for two more games, Jackson gets to continue his starring role against a Bucs D that was steamrolled by Dallas for 462 yards of total offense.
FOUR STARS
- QB JOE FLACCO, Ravens: Worried about Donovan McNabb's status in Week 2? Why not go whacko for Flacco? He lit up the Chiefs for 307 yards and 3 TDs and should have some success against the Chargers this week.
THREE STARS
- TE TODD HEAP, Ravens: Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated (5 catches, 74 yards, TD in Week 1). If oft-injured replacement L.J. Smith can't get on the field, Heap might prove he still has something left.
TWO STARS
- WR LOUIS MURPHY, Raiders: The former Florida Gator caught a TD in Monday's opener against San Diego and had another score taken away on a controversial ruling. The rookie may prove to be JaMarcus Russell's favorite target this year - but just how valuable that makes him for fantasy purposes is in the eye of the beholder. There are sure to be bumps all the way, but there might be a few more bombs awaiting him.
- RB CADILLAC WILLIAMS, Bucs: Finally healthy (for now) and getting first crack at carries. Ride him while he's hot and as long as his legs hold up.
- RB FRED JACKSON, Bills: Was a more effective weapon for Buffalo than Terrell Owens against the Patriots (15 carries, 57 yards; 5 catches, 83 yards, TD). With Marshawn Lynch suspended for two more games, Jackson gets to continue his starring role against a Bucs D that was steamrolled by Dallas for 462 yards of total offense.
FOUR STARS
- QB JOE FLACCO, Ravens: Worried about Donovan McNabb's status in Week 2? Why not go whacko for Flacco? He lit up the Chiefs for 307 yards and 3 TDs and should have some success against the Chargers this week.
THREE STARS
- TE TODD HEAP, Ravens: Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated (5 catches, 74 yards, TD in Week 1). If oft-injured replacement L.J. Smith can't get on the field, Heap might prove he still has something left.
TWO STARS
- WR LOUIS MURPHY, Raiders: The former Florida Gator caught a TD in Monday's opener against San Diego and had another score taken away on a controversial ruling. The rookie may prove to be JaMarcus Russell's favorite target this year - but just how valuable that makes him for fantasy purposes is in the eye of the beholder. There are sure to be bumps all the way, but there might be a few more bombs awaiting him.
Sunday, September 06, 2009
Three teams I'm trying to avoid
Call me crazy, but an NFL team firing its offensive coordinator less than two weeks before the start of the regular season usually isn't a formula for offensive excellence. That's why I'm trying to avoid most players from these three franchises:
CHIEFS
Of all three of these revamped/reworked/rebuilt offenses I'm talking about, the Chiefs were perhaps the most intriguing. Even though now-departed Chan Gailey was a holdover from the previous (unsuccessful) coaching regime, new K.C. head man Todd Haley is the mastermind behind the Cardinals' electrifying offense from a year ago. The firing of Gailey might not make a huge difference, but there were already warning signs about this offense: the poor offensive line play of the past few years, the decline of Larry Johnson and his various issues, the departure of Tony Gonzalez and the preseason injury suffered by new QB Matt Cassel. The combination of all red flags makes K.C.'s playmakers a little less desirable than they seemed during the offseason. WR Dwayne Bowe and Cassel should probably drop out of the preseason top 10 at their respective positions, and I don't trust LJ as anything more than a No. 3 RB at best. Still like Jamaal Charles as a deep sleeper though.
BUCS
The firing of OC Jeff Jagodzinski kind of came out of left field. Remember when the guy was a big NFL head coaching prospect? Well whatever, I guess being faced with the prospect of Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown as his starting QB, he was probably set up to fail anyway. McCown was traded to Jacksonville over the weekend, and Leftwich is officially the Bucs' Week 1 starter now, which shouldn't excite you much. It doesn't bode well for Antonio Bryant or Kellen Winslow either, so bump them down a peg from wherever they would be with a better QB at the helm. The Bucs do have a promising offensive line and should be able to to run the ball; the problem is they have three decent RBs to share the load, which means you have to be a bit skeptical of Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams until we see their roles.
BILLS
Buffalo's Turk Schonert is another assistant coach who never even got to start the season in his new position. He's blasting head coach Dick Jauron because the offensive playcalling "wasn't simple enough." A little imagination might not hurt after the Bills have been so ineffective on offense the past few years. Terrell Owens certainly livens things up a bit, but I'm proceeding with caution and treating him like a No. 2 fantasy receiver. Trent Edwards is no Tony Romo (or Donovan McNabb or Jeff Garcia) at this point and has a long way to go before he's anything more than a low-end fantasy backup. Lee Evans is tantalizing as always but seems perpetually bound to disappoint no matter what you expect out of him. And it's tough to take a chance on either Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson when you know there will be a major shakeup in their roles once Lynch serves his season-opening four-game suspension.
CHIEFS
Of all three of these revamped/reworked/rebuilt offenses I'm talking about, the Chiefs were perhaps the most intriguing. Even though now-departed Chan Gailey was a holdover from the previous (unsuccessful) coaching regime, new K.C. head man Todd Haley is the mastermind behind the Cardinals' electrifying offense from a year ago. The firing of Gailey might not make a huge difference, but there were already warning signs about this offense: the poor offensive line play of the past few years, the decline of Larry Johnson and his various issues, the departure of Tony Gonzalez and the preseason injury suffered by new QB Matt Cassel. The combination of all red flags makes K.C.'s playmakers a little less desirable than they seemed during the offseason. WR Dwayne Bowe and Cassel should probably drop out of the preseason top 10 at their respective positions, and I don't trust LJ as anything more than a No. 3 RB at best. Still like Jamaal Charles as a deep sleeper though.
BUCS
The firing of OC Jeff Jagodzinski kind of came out of left field. Remember when the guy was a big NFL head coaching prospect? Well whatever, I guess being faced with the prospect of Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown as his starting QB, he was probably set up to fail anyway. McCown was traded to Jacksonville over the weekend, and Leftwich is officially the Bucs' Week 1 starter now, which shouldn't excite you much. It doesn't bode well for Antonio Bryant or Kellen Winslow either, so bump them down a peg from wherever they would be with a better QB at the helm. The Bucs do have a promising offensive line and should be able to to run the ball; the problem is they have three decent RBs to share the load, which means you have to be a bit skeptical of Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams until we see their roles.
BILLS
Buffalo's Turk Schonert is another assistant coach who never even got to start the season in his new position. He's blasting head coach Dick Jauron because the offensive playcalling "wasn't simple enough." A little imagination might not hurt after the Bills have been so ineffective on offense the past few years. Terrell Owens certainly livens things up a bit, but I'm proceeding with caution and treating him like a No. 2 fantasy receiver. Trent Edwards is no Tony Romo (or Donovan McNabb or Jeff Garcia) at this point and has a long way to go before he's anything more than a low-end fantasy backup. Lee Evans is tantalizing as always but seems perpetually bound to disappoint no matter what you expect out of him. And it's tough to take a chance on either Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson when you know there will be a major shakeup in their roles once Lynch serves his season-opening four-game suspension.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
T.O. to .... Buffalo?
The people have spoken, and I'm back to the blog!
The news that brought me out of my winter hibernation: Terrell Owens is a Buffalo Bill.
OK, didn't see that coming. I was thinking the Raiders, maybe the Redskins ... but this is truly a fascinating move. T.O. goes from America's Team to the NFL's hinterlands, a team desperate for some offensive juice - if not the attention-grabbing, chemistry-ruining nonsense that comes with him.
We're all sick of the endless ESPN drama, but it's easy to forget Owens has actually been a very productive player on the field, topping 1,000 yards and scoring at least 10 TDs in each of the past three seasons in Big D. Can he replicate those numbers in cold and windy Buffalo, at age 35, with Trent Edwards throwing him the ball and fewer Pro Bowl-caliber players surrounding him? I'm not willing to bet my first-round pick on it ... but I do believe Owens will sbe a No. 1 fantasy receiver in 2009. The track record is there - he's produced everywhere he's played, at least until he inevitably wears out his welcome.
As for Edwards and the rest of the Bills' skill guys - Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, etc. - Owens' arrival should be reason to celebrate. What had been an anemic offense just got a whole lot more explosive, and all of their stats should see a boost next season as a result.
The news that brought me out of my winter hibernation: Terrell Owens is a Buffalo Bill.
OK, didn't see that coming. I was thinking the Raiders, maybe the Redskins ... but this is truly a fascinating move. T.O. goes from America's Team to the NFL's hinterlands, a team desperate for some offensive juice - if not the attention-grabbing, chemistry-ruining nonsense that comes with him.
We're all sick of the endless ESPN drama, but it's easy to forget Owens has actually been a very productive player on the field, topping 1,000 yards and scoring at least 10 TDs in each of the past three seasons in Big D. Can he replicate those numbers in cold and windy Buffalo, at age 35, with Trent Edwards throwing him the ball and fewer Pro Bowl-caliber players surrounding him? I'm not willing to bet my first-round pick on it ... but I do believe Owens will sbe a No. 1 fantasy receiver in 2009. The track record is there - he's produced everywhere he's played, at least until he inevitably wears out his welcome.
As for Edwards and the rest of the Bills' skill guys - Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, etc. - Owens' arrival should be reason to celebrate. What had been an anemic offense just got a whole lot more explosive, and all of their stats should see a boost next season as a result.
Saturday, May 05, 2007
Is there a Draft in here?
They say it can take a few years to really analyze an NFL Draft, but in fantasy, we don't have that luxury. We've got to identify the impact players right away in preparation for our own draft. Here are some of the big names taken this year and how they'll fit into your fantasy plans in '07:
• QB JaMarcus Russell to Raiders: Best-case scenario, Russell is a quick learner, takes the starting job early in the season and makes a Vince Young-type impact. Worst-case scenario: he struggles to adjust or, more likely, he gets thrown into the fire but that offensive line crumbles again. Russell is a nice speculative pick as a No. 2 QB for now, but you'll want a proven starter ahead of him.
• WR Calvin Johnson to Lions: Johnson may make the biggest fantasy impact of this rookie class, but take that with a grain of salt. Rookie WRs are anything but a sure but, and Marques Colston is the exception, not the rule. I'm a little more excited about the boost Roy Williams and, to a lesser extent Jon Kitna, will get from adding Johnson to the lineup. Still, Mike Martz will find ways to get Johnson the ball, so that makes him a No. 3 fantasy WR with a ton of upside. He's an obvious target in keeper leagues.
• RB Adrian Peterson to Vikings: Here's another keeper league no-brainer. The bad news is he'll most likely split carries with workhorse Chester Taylor. While the two-back platoon didn't hurt 2006 rookies Laurence Maroney or Reggie Bush that much, the Vikings' offense (perhaps led by Tarvaris Jackson) won't match the Patriots' last year, and Peterson won't contribute in the passing game the way Bush did. Don't get me wrong, I think Peterson will be a star in due time, but factor in a lingering collar bone injury and he might not have a ton of value in 2007 (unless Taylor goes down). For now, treat him as a third or fourth RB.
• WR Ted Ginn Jr. to Dolphins: Wow, Fins fans really weren't happy with this pick, huh? The reason is it's hard to envision Ginn as a stud No. 1 NFL receiver (like, say, Chris Chambers) - he just hasn't demonstrated those skills yet. Miami likes his raw talent and speed and hopes he can make a Devin Hester-type impact on special teams, but that isn't exactly helpful in fantasy terms. He's also been slow to recover from an ankle injury suffered in the BCS title game. Throw in the real possibility we'll see a whole lot of Cleo Lemon under center this year, and Ginn is nothing more than a late-round flier for now.
• RB Marshawn Lynch to Bills: Buffalo had a glaring need in its backfield after dealing Willis McGahee to Baltimore, and it filled that need by making Lynch the second RB taken in the draft. Lynch might not be as talented as draftmate Peterson, but he has the potential to be the more valuable fantasy rookie RB in 2007. That's because he has a good chance of supplanting Anthony Thomas as the Bills' feature back with a good showing in training camp, or at the very least getting a majority of the carries in a platoon system.
• QB Brady Quinn to Browns: Cleveland got its man, albeit later than most draft gurus predicted. Many of those same gurus seem to think Quinn has the skills to compete right away in the NFL. It remains to be seen if he can beat out Charlie Frye for the starting gig, but you have to figure we'll see Quinn starting at some point in '07. The addition of RB Jamal Lewis and rookie OL Joe Thomas will help boost what had been a dismal offense, and TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards are also exciting pieces. If everything goes right, Quinn might be able to make the same kind of impact Matt Leinart did last year, so he'd be an intriguing fantasy backup.
• TE Greg Olsen to Bears: Olsen could eventually be a serious receiving threat in the mold of Todd Heap and fellow Miami product Jeremy Shockey. He has the size (6-4, 250) and speed (4.5 in the 40) to really help QB Rex Grossman, but it will take him time to adjust to the NFL, and Desmond Clark will probably still take plenty of snaps at TE. It's a pretty deep position, so consider Olsen a No. 2 with some upside.
• WR Randy Moss to Patriots: He's not a rookie, but he stole the headlines at the draft when Oakland dealt the malcontent for a fourth-round pick. Moss' days out West were disastrous at best, and he'll try to resurrect his career in New England. I could see this going either way: A) Moss is motivated and happy and flourishes with a living, breathing QB throwing him the ball, gets 1,000 yards and becomes a model citizen in the hopes of winning a championship; or B) isn't happy about sharing the ball with Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown and Ben Watson, and those nagging injuries and negative tendencies pop up again. So you can roll the dice by taking Moss as your No. 2, just recognize the risks and rewards involved.
• QB JaMarcus Russell to Raiders: Best-case scenario, Russell is a quick learner, takes the starting job early in the season and makes a Vince Young-type impact. Worst-case scenario: he struggles to adjust or, more likely, he gets thrown into the fire but that offensive line crumbles again. Russell is a nice speculative pick as a No. 2 QB for now, but you'll want a proven starter ahead of him.
• WR Calvin Johnson to Lions: Johnson may make the biggest fantasy impact of this rookie class, but take that with a grain of salt. Rookie WRs are anything but a sure but, and Marques Colston is the exception, not the rule. I'm a little more excited about the boost Roy Williams and, to a lesser extent Jon Kitna, will get from adding Johnson to the lineup. Still, Mike Martz will find ways to get Johnson the ball, so that makes him a No. 3 fantasy WR with a ton of upside. He's an obvious target in keeper leagues.
• RB Adrian Peterson to Vikings: Here's another keeper league no-brainer. The bad news is he'll most likely split carries with workhorse Chester Taylor. While the two-back platoon didn't hurt 2006 rookies Laurence Maroney or Reggie Bush that much, the Vikings' offense (perhaps led by Tarvaris Jackson) won't match the Patriots' last year, and Peterson won't contribute in the passing game the way Bush did. Don't get me wrong, I think Peterson will be a star in due time, but factor in a lingering collar bone injury and he might not have a ton of value in 2007 (unless Taylor goes down). For now, treat him as a third or fourth RB.
• WR Ted Ginn Jr. to Dolphins: Wow, Fins fans really weren't happy with this pick, huh? The reason is it's hard to envision Ginn as a stud No. 1 NFL receiver (like, say, Chris Chambers) - he just hasn't demonstrated those skills yet. Miami likes his raw talent and speed and hopes he can make a Devin Hester-type impact on special teams, but that isn't exactly helpful in fantasy terms. He's also been slow to recover from an ankle injury suffered in the BCS title game. Throw in the real possibility we'll see a whole lot of Cleo Lemon under center this year, and Ginn is nothing more than a late-round flier for now.
• RB Marshawn Lynch to Bills: Buffalo had a glaring need in its backfield after dealing Willis McGahee to Baltimore, and it filled that need by making Lynch the second RB taken in the draft. Lynch might not be as talented as draftmate Peterson, but he has the potential to be the more valuable fantasy rookie RB in 2007. That's because he has a good chance of supplanting Anthony Thomas as the Bills' feature back with a good showing in training camp, or at the very least getting a majority of the carries in a platoon system.
• QB Brady Quinn to Browns: Cleveland got its man, albeit later than most draft gurus predicted. Many of those same gurus seem to think Quinn has the skills to compete right away in the NFL. It remains to be seen if he can beat out Charlie Frye for the starting gig, but you have to figure we'll see Quinn starting at some point in '07. The addition of RB Jamal Lewis and rookie OL Joe Thomas will help boost what had been a dismal offense, and TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards are also exciting pieces. If everything goes right, Quinn might be able to make the same kind of impact Matt Leinart did last year, so he'd be an intriguing fantasy backup.
• TE Greg Olsen to Bears: Olsen could eventually be a serious receiving threat in the mold of Todd Heap and fellow Miami product Jeremy Shockey. He has the size (6-4, 250) and speed (4.5 in the 40) to really help QB Rex Grossman, but it will take him time to adjust to the NFL, and Desmond Clark will probably still take plenty of snaps at TE. It's a pretty deep position, so consider Olsen a No. 2 with some upside.
• WR Randy Moss to Patriots: He's not a rookie, but he stole the headlines at the draft when Oakland dealt the malcontent for a fourth-round pick. Moss' days out West were disastrous at best, and he'll try to resurrect his career in New England. I could see this going either way: A) Moss is motivated and happy and flourishes with a living, breathing QB throwing him the ball, gets 1,000 yards and becomes a model citizen in the hopes of winning a championship; or B) isn't happy about sharing the ball with Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown and Ben Watson, and those nagging injuries and negative tendencies pop up again. So you can roll the dice by taking Moss as your No. 2, just recognize the risks and rewards involved.
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