8/23 Bust of the Day: Larry Fitzgerald

WR LARRY FITZGERALD, Cardinals

I don't doubt Fitzgerald's talent. I'm not saying he won't be a No. 1 fantasy wideout this season. But to quote just about every character in the Star Wars movies, I have a bad feeling about this.

Maybe it's the fact Matt Leinart is taking over the reins as Cards QB from the prolific Kurt Warner. Maybe it's the sprained right knee Fitzgerald's already dealing with this preseason. Maybe it's the residue of the Madden Curse that never really struck him last year (but cost co-cover boy Troy Polamalu most of his season). You know what they say about karma ...

But seriously, there are plenty of reasons to worry about Fitzgerald this year. He's not going to have Anquan Boldin around anymore to put pressure on opposing secondaries. And you may remember Fitzgerald's last subpar season (946 yards, 6 TDs in 13 games in 2006) just happened to be the year Arizona was trying to break in Leinart as their starting QB. Now, Leinart is a better QB today then he was as a rookie (presumably) - but can he replace Warner's production? Will more targets come Fitzgerald's way with Boldin out of the picture, or will Arizona just lean more heavily on Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the running game?

That's an awful lot of question marks for a WR who I've seen go in the first round in some mock drafts. I still don't have a problem making Fitzgerald my No. 1 WR ... but I'm not sure I'd take him over Andre Johnson or Randy Moss, or even Calvin Johnson. I'm labeling him a bust because I don't think he's the shoe-in for 1,300 yards or double-digit TDs many are tabbing him to be.

8/8 Sleeper of the Day: Matthew Stafford

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD, LIONS

What's this? A recommendation for a Detroit quarterback? No joke!

OK, so Stafford didn't exactly take the fantasy world by storm in Year 1, and nobody's confusing the kid with Bobby Layne yet. But there's a lot to like here in 2010.

For starters, let's begin with what's NOT here: No Daunte Culpepper to take away valuable snaps or practice reps from the developing Stafford, and no shoulder and knee injuries that hampered him throughout his rookie season. Stafford was forced to miss six games last year, and while his stats in the remaining 10 weren't all that pretty (13 TDs, 20 INTs), he'll have the benefit of being the team's unquestioned starter from the opening of camp and a having year under his belt.

Now, for the really exciting part. Not only does Stafford have Calvin Johnson, who's on the cusp of becoming the game's best receiver, as his main target, but the Lions have upgraded the rest of their offensive weapons. In the offseason they added WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler and drafted explosive RB Jahvid Best and are starting to look like a professional football team. True, it could all be for naught if Detroit's offensive line does the same swiss cheese impression as last year and stunts Stafford's development. But that unit should improve, and so should Stafford. He's not ready to make the jump to No. 1 fantasy starter just yet, but I contend he'll make for a serviceable and underrated backup this year.

Touchdowns and turkey: Perfect together

The NFL’s Thanksgiving Day games aren’t all that intriguing, but fantasy players won’t complain. We get three midweek matchups, all seen on national TV (by those of us lucky enough to get the NFL Network, anyway) and all with a fair share of fantasy-relevant stars involved.

The holiday slate features a battle of the birds (Eagles vs. Cardinals), and quite a few turkeys (Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, the 0-11 Detroit Lions). We’ll all be watching the games - between naps, of course - and trying to get our teams off to a good start in Week 13. So in that spirit, let’s break down the matchups from a fantasy perspective:

TENNESSEE AT DETROIT

Kerry Collins, NFL MVP? I’m warming up to the idea.

Kerry Collins, fantasy starter? I’ll buy that too, at least for this week.

If there’s ever a time to start the old-timer, this is it. He’s coming off his three best efforts of the season, statistically speaking (six TDs in his past three games), and he’s facing a Lions defense that’s given up 18 scores through the air. Collins and top receiver Justin Gage are pretty decent options this week.

Even better options: The Titans’ dual rushing threat of Chris Johnson and LenDale White, going up against Detroit’s league-worst rush defense (166 yards allowed per game). Rising rookie star Johnson is an obvious must-start, but don’t let White’s one-carry, minus-one-yard, one-temper-tantrum effort last week scare you off. Coach Jeff Fisher will make sure White keeps his attitude in check, and the best way to do that is give him the rock early and often against a soft D.

As for the Lions, I like rookie Kevin Smith as a No. 2 running back this week since the Titans aren’t as good against the run as you might expect. They are, however, great against the pass, but I’d still start Calvin Johnson (a TD in six of his past seven games) and cross my fingers.

SEATTLE AT DETROIT

The Tony Romo Comeback Tour continues. Remember when America’s favorite advocate for the homeless tossed five TDs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2006 Turkey Day game? It wouldn’t surprise me if he came close to matching that against the Seahawks’ secondary. Romo and Terrell Owens (213 yards, TD) are clicking right now, so expect fireworks.

Marion Barber will find room to run, so start him with out hesitation. His Seahawks counterpart and former backfield mate, Julius Jones, will start and should have a little extra motivation, but I wouldn’t use him as anything more than a No. 3 RB or flex player if I could help it. And I’d avoid Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks receivers.

ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA

Speaking of extra motivation, McNabb should be out to prove his detractors wrong, and I’m expecting big things against a Cardinals defense that:

g Has allowed a league-high 22 passing touchdowns

g Has been burnt by the likes of Shaun Hill (two TDs) and Eli Manning (three TDs) in recent weeks, and

g Is traveling cross-country with a short week of practice.

Sounds like a recipe for a Thanksgiving treat from McNabb. I’d consider DeSean Jackson too if I’m short at wide receiver, and I’d take a long, hard look at a seriously banged-up Brian Westbrook as one of my RB options.

On the flip side, Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are on an absolute tear and cannot be benched. Steve Breaston is still getting looks but remains a fantasy No. 3 in most leagues. And Tim Hightower has been a boom-or-bust proposition in recent weeks, so start with caution.

Photos by The Associated Press

Drama in Dallas

Love them or hate them, you’ve got to admit the Dallas Cowboys sure know how to keep things interesting.

There’s never a lack of drama with America’s Team, and this week has been no different, from the pinkie injury heard ‘round the world to the latest case of Pacman being Pacman. The ‘Boys began their season starring on HBO’s “Hard Knocks,” and the plot twists have only gotten better as the year has unfolded.

Sometimes the circus atmosphere is almost too much to take, but fantasy owners need to keep tuning into the latest dispatches from Big D. The reason is the vast amount of skill players on the Cowboys’ roster – in fact, if you play in the average 10- or 12-team league, there’s a good chance your roster includes at least one guy who wears a giant star on his helmet.

With that in mind, let’s examine some of the biggest storylines emanating Dallas from a fantasy perspective and how they affect your squad.

Start with the news of Tony Romo’s broken finger, which will keep the quarterback out for perhaps the next four weeks. I’ve actually heard some TV talking heads suggest replacing Romo with boring Brad Johnson is a good thing because of all the kid’s boneheaded miscues, and maybe there’s a little truth to that. However, in fantasy, we don’t really care that much about turnovers as long as a QB is producing, and Romo (14 TDs, 281 yards a game) has statistically outperformed most of his peers. It’s going to be a rough few weeks for anyone who’s been riding high thanks to Romo this year.

However, there’s reason for optimism. When Romo returns, he’ll have arguably the league’s best receiving corps at his disposal, thanks to Dallas’ acquisition of Roy Williams from the Detroit Lions for a boatload of 2009 draft picks.

Williams was unhappy, underused and underperforming in Detroit but has been handed his personal “Get Out of Jail Free” card just as the self-imploding Lions placed quarterback Jon Kitna on injured reserve, ending his season. Williams wasn’t pleased to see Calvin Johnson getting all the targets in the Motor City, but I doubt you’ll hear many complaints from him for the time being, despite having to share the ball with Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and Co. He won’t be the No. 1 option and might not even be the clear No. 2 on his new team, but his fantasy value is certainly no less than it was with the lowly Lions.

Williams is a major talent in his prime, and once Romo gets back under center, opposing secondaries will have to pick their poison among those three receivers. That means perhaps some inconsistency at times, but you’ll want Owens and Witten in your lineup every week and Williams as the matchups dictate. That also means it’s safe to drop Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin.

I know what you’re thinking: What about Johnson, the Cowboys’ placeholder QB until Romo returns? Is he worth picking up? Well, probably, if you’re putting Romo in your IR slot or just searching the waiver wire for someone interesting. Johnson’s not going to be gunslinging or running around like a headless chicken out there, so temper your expectations – he’ll do his best to keep Williams and T.O. happy with a few deep passes a game, but mostly he’ll be dumping the ball off to Witten and relying even more on Marion Barber, who could be in for some busy afternoons with backup Felix Jones out two-to-four weeks with a hamstring injury.

As for the ‘Boys on the other side of the ball, what had been a fairly mediocre fantasy defense gets worse with the indefinite suspension of Adam “Pacman” Jones and the injury to fellow cornerback Terence Newman. I’d still probably start the Dallas D against the St. Louis Rams this week, though.

And that brings us back to the poor Lions. The results of the trade are mixed for Johnson: He’s clearly Detroit’s top receiver now, but he’s stuck with directionally-challenged Dan Orlovsky (see video) throwing him the ball, and defenses can now double-team him. Expect to see a little more of Rudi Johnson and Kevin Smith carrying the ball in Detroit.

Is there a Draft in here?

They say it can take a few years to really analyze an NFL Draft, but in fantasy, we don't have that luxury. We've got to identify the impact players right away in preparation for our own draft. Here are some of the big names taken this year and how they'll fit into your fantasy plans in '07:

• QB JaMarcus Russell to Raiders: Best-case scenario, Russell is a quick learner, takes the starting job early in the season and makes a Vince Young-type impact. Worst-case scenario: he struggles to adjust or, more likely, he gets thrown into the fire but that offensive line crumbles again. Russell is a nice speculative pick as a No. 2 QB for now, but you'll want a proven starter ahead of him.

• WR Calvin Johnson to Lions: Johnson may make the biggest fantasy impact of this rookie class, but take that with a grain of salt. Rookie WRs are anything but a sure but, and Marques Colston is the exception, not the rule. I'm a little more excited about the boost Roy Williams and, to a lesser extent Jon Kitna, will get from adding Johnson to the lineup. Still, Mike Martz will find ways to get Johnson the ball, so that makes him a No. 3 fantasy WR with a ton of upside. He's an obvious target in keeper leagues.

• RB Adrian Peterson to Vikings: Here's another keeper league no-brainer. The bad news is he'll most likely split carries with workhorse Chester Taylor. While the two-back platoon didn't hurt 2006 rookies Laurence Maroney or Reggie Bush that much, the Vikings' offense (perhaps led by Tarvaris Jackson) won't match the Patriots' last year, and Peterson won't contribute in the passing game the way Bush did. Don't get me wrong, I think Peterson will be a star in due time, but factor in a lingering collar bone injury and he might not have a ton of value in 2007 (unless Taylor goes down). For now, treat him as a third or fourth RB.

• WR Ted Ginn Jr. to Dolphins: Wow, Fins fans really weren't happy with this pick, huh? The reason is it's hard to envision Ginn as a stud No. 1 NFL receiver (like, say, Chris Chambers) - he just hasn't demonstrated those skills yet. Miami likes his raw talent and speed and hopes he can make a Devin Hester-type impact on special teams, but that isn't exactly helpful in fantasy terms. He's also been slow to recover from an ankle injury suffered in the BCS title game. Throw in the real possibility we'll see a whole lot of Cleo Lemon under center this year, and Ginn is nothing more than a late-round flier for now.

• RB Marshawn Lynch to Bills: Buffalo had a glaring need in its backfield after dealing Willis McGahee to Baltimore, and it filled that need by making Lynch the second RB taken in the draft. Lynch might not be as talented as draftmate Peterson, but he has the potential to be the more valuable fantasy rookie RB in 2007. That's because he has a good chance of supplanting Anthony Thomas as the Bills' feature back with a good showing in training camp, or at the very least getting a majority of the carries in a platoon system.

• QB Brady Quinn to Browns: Cleveland got its man, albeit later than most draft gurus predicted. Many of those same gurus seem to think Quinn has the skills to compete right away in the NFL. It remains to be seen if he can beat out Charlie Frye for the starting gig, but you have to figure we'll see Quinn starting at some point in '07. The addition of RB Jamal Lewis and rookie OL Joe Thomas will help boost what had been a dismal offense, and TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards are also exciting pieces. If everything goes right, Quinn might be able to make the same kind of impact Matt Leinart did last year, so he'd be an intriguing fantasy backup.

• TE Greg Olsen to Bears: Olsen could eventually be a serious receiving threat in the mold of Todd Heap and fellow Miami product Jeremy Shockey. He has the size (6-4, 250) and speed (4.5 in the 40) to really help QB Rex Grossman, but it will take him time to adjust to the NFL, and Desmond Clark will probably still take plenty of snaps at TE. It's a pretty deep position, so consider Olsen a No. 2 with some upside.

• WR Randy Moss to Patriots: He's not a rookie, but he stole the headlines at the draft when Oakland dealt the malcontent for a fourth-round pick. Moss' days out West were disastrous at best, and he'll try to resurrect his career in New England. I could see this going either way: A) Moss is motivated and happy and flourishes with a living, breathing QB throwing him the ball, gets 1,000 yards and becomes a model citizen in the hopes of winning a championship; or B) isn't happy about sharing the ball with Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown and Ben Watson, and those nagging injuries and negative tendencies pop up again. So you can roll the dice by taking Moss as your No. 2, just recognize the risks and rewards involved.