2010 QB Rankings

A surprise at the top: Aaron Rodgers is the No. 1 QB in my preseason rankings.

Drew Brees got more pub last year - winning a Super Bowl will do that - but it was actually Rodgers who had more pass attempts and more yards than the Saints star. The Other A-Rod threw 30 TDs, four fewer than Brees, but he also rushed for 5 TDs to Brees' 2, and he tossed four fewer INTs than New Orleans' leader.

Rodgers isn't sneaking up on anyone like last year, and he certainly won't come as cheaply in your fantasy draft. But he's younger than Brees, is a more dangerous rusher and has his full complement of weapons back this year. Plus, he put up last year's excellent numbers despite taking a league-high 50 sacks, a number that's sure to drop with the healthy returns of veteran tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton and the addition of first-rounder Bryan Bulaga.

Some other notes:

Tom Brady falls out of the top 5, mostly because I like some of the league's younger QBs better. Brady's still a bona fide fantasy starter, but I just can't pencil him into the top 3 like I used to anymore.

Brett Favre's value is tough to predict, but it's all about his health, I have to believe that ankle will be healed by Week 1 since he's already joined Vikings camp. Last year's miraculous numbers will be hard to duplicate, but he should still be a top-10 guy if he can last through the season.

I put Kevin Kolb just outside the top-10, which means he's not a starter in your typical 10-team league, but it would not shock me to see him finish there.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
4. Matt Schaub
5. Tony Romo
6. Tom Brady
7. Philip Rivers
8. Brett Favre
9. Jay Cutler
10. Joe Flacco
11. Kevin Kolb
12. Eli Manning
13. Matt Ryan
14. Donovan McNabb
15. Ben Roethlisberger
16. Matthew Stafford
17. Chad Henne
18. Carson Palmer
19. Vince Young
20. Matt Cassel
21. Matt Leinart
22. David Garrard
23. Alex Smith
24. Jason Campbell
25. Mark Sanchez
26. Josh Freeman
27. Kyle Orton
28. Matt Hasselbeck
29. Matt Moore
30. Trent Edwards
31. Michael Vick
32. Sam Bradford
33. Charlie Whitehurst
34. Jake Delhomme
35. Seneca Wallace
36. Byron Leftwich
37. Tavaris Jackson
38. Brady Quinn
39. Derek Anderson
40. Ryan Fitzpatrick

8/15 Bust of the Day: Tom Brady

QB TOM BRADY, Patriots




Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.

But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.

Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.

Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.

That's all I'm sayin'.

8/6 Sleeper of the Day: Jermichael Finley

TE JERMICHAEL FINLEY, PACKERS

Depending on the savviness of your fellow leaguemates, Finley could be an absolute steal for you in the later rounds – or he’ll be snatched up way earlier than you ever dreamed. He’s getting a lot of hype this preseason, and with good reason.

At 6-foot-5 and 243 pounds Finley's a physical specimen, and he finished strong in 2009 as he took over the starting role from Donald Lee. He caught four of his five TDs in the final five weeks of the season last year, then topped that off with a six-catch, 159-yard destruction of Arizona's defense in a wild-card playoff loss. As he enters his third pro season he's become a favorite target of up-and-coming QB Aaron Rodgers, and though the Pack like to spread the ball around, Finley was still fourth in red-zone targets among TEs. We could see him double that TD number this year with a full season as Green Bay's No. 1 TE, which would put Finley among the top 5 options at the position in 2010.

Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

2009 Fantasy Awards, Pt. 1

Time for my annual season review and the handing out of some well-deserved honors. No popularity contests or personal biases here: These awards are based strictly on the cold, hard numbers and the players' direct impact on fantasy success.

Let's do this.


FANTASY MVP

I was tempted to give the honor to Aaron Rodgers, who produced as well as any quarterback this season but could have been taken in the 3rd or 4th round or later at most drafts. But while there were a few QBs at the top of the rankings with similar stats - Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning - one running back stood out from the pack at his position.

Chris Johnson's 2,006-yard rushing season will go down as one of the greatest in league history. CJ had a few disappointing games in the early weeks of 2009 - he had four sub-100-yard rushing performances in his first five games and failed to score a TD in any of them. But a monster Week 2 against Houston (197 rushing yards and 2 TDs, plus 87 receiving yards and a TD catch) showed us just what he was capable of. Johnson finished the season with 11 straight 100-plus-yard games. He scored 14 TDs on the ground, plus 2 more through the air to go with more than 500 receiving yards. In short, he was a fantasy beast, and in many leagues he wasn't among the top 5 or even 10 players drafted. That won't be the case next year.

BUST OF THE YEAR

I tended to be a little more bullish on Matt Forte's 2009 fantasy prospects than some publications. With the Bears' offseason acquisition of Jay Cutler, I thought Forte might significantly improve on a standout rookie season. Boy, was I wrong. He finished with just 929 rushing yards, down from last year's 1,238. He scored 4 rushing TDs, down from last year's 8. He caught 57 passes, down from last year's 63. He caught 0 TDs, down from last year's 4.

In other words, he was a bust.

2009 ALL FANTASY TEAM

QB - Drew Brees
RB1 - Chris Johnson
RB2 - Adrian Peterson
WR1 - Andre Johsnon
WR2 - Randy Moss
TE - Vernon Davis
K - David Akers
DEF - Eagles

PICKUP OF THE YEAR

Receivers Miles Austin of the Cowboys and Steve Smith of the Giants deserve recognition for going from off the radar to bona fide fantasy starters in 2009. But the honor goes to Kansas City's Jamaal Charles, who started the year blocked by Larry Johnson but finished as a 1,000-yard rusher. After the Chiefs unceremoniously dumped Johnson, Charles immediately stepped in with 103 yards and a TD against Oakland in Week 10 and never looked back. He scored 7 times in the season's final 8 weeks and topped 100 rushing yards in each of his final 4 games during a critical stretch of the fantasy season, culminating with his 259-yard, 2-TD showing in Week 17.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

First-year running backs Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells and LeSean McCoy were all valuable fantasy commodities at various times, but WR Percy Harvin gets the nod after catching 6 TDs. That's more than such fantasy stalwarts as Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Antonio Bryant. Harvin also rushed for 731 yards and scored two return TDs, making him one of the season's best flex players.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

I hate to say it, but it's got to be Favre. He tied Rodgers for the third most pasing TDs with 33, his most since 1997. He also threw only 7 TDs, his fewest ever in a full season. That was a whopping improvement on last year's ratio (22 TDs/22 INTs). Favre entered the year considered a marginal fantasy backup but was one of the game's best QBs in 2009.

Week 14 recap

- Thanks, Aaron Rodgers, for not throwing ONE STINKING TD PASS in a critical week for fantasy. Ryan Grant (20 carries, 137 yards, 2 TDs) did all the heavy lifting for the Packers against the Bears.

- Peyton Manning, on the other hand, didn't disappoint (4 TDs) and could have been even better if not for 3 INTs.

- Speaking of stepping up, how about that Brandon Marshall? A PPR player's dream: an NFL-record 23 receptions, including 2 TDs, and 200 receiving yards. The surprising part? It was only the second time he's had double-digit receptions all year.

- Give Andre Johnson (193 yards, 2 TDs) a game ball, too.

- And while we're at it, a round of applause for Chris Johnson (186 total yards, 3 TDs), a one-man fantasy wrecking ball all season.

- Pat yourself on the back for drafting/picking up/starting Jamaal Charles (143 rushing yards, TD, 7 catches for 38 yards). And rejoice in next week's date with the Browns.

- Cedric Benson was surprisingly effective against Minnesota's defense (96 yards on 16 carries), and the purported timeshare with Larry Johnson (3 carries, 4 yards) never materialized. Benson is a safe play next Sunday at San Diego.

- Rickey Williams enjoyed his fourth 100-yard rushing game in the past 5 weeks and scored his 11th TD of the year.

- Who is Quinton Ganther? A former practice-squad RB from Utah who scored 2 TDs for Washington, that's who. Expect to see more of him in the coming weeks as the Redskins' RB roulette continues.

- Another 'Skin deserves a look, too: It's TE Fred Davis, who has 4 TDs in his past three games and who next faces the Giants, who had no answer for Philly's Brent Celek (5 catches, 64 yards, TD) this week.

- Speaking of answers, Randy Moss owes each of his fantasy owners one after that "performance" (1 catch, 16 yards, fumble, general disinterest in playing football on Sunday).

Week 6 Recap

Random thoughts from another week of gridiron goodness:

- Take a bow, Tom Brady (380 yards, 6 TDs). You've got to be licking your chops thinking about Sunday's game against the Bucs in London.

- Do Drew Brees' 4 TD passes make up for not him not throwing one in the two games before that? Probably. But it'd be nice to see a little more consistency.

- I knew Visanthe Shiancoe (5 TDs in 6 games) and Brett Favre would be a great team.

- Remember when Willis McGahee was a hot pickup? After three consecutive dreadful weeks (5 carries, 11 yards; 1 carry, -2 yards; 7 carries, 3 yards), I'm extremely glad I didn't jump on that bandwagon and stuck with Ray Rice (194 total yards, 2 TDs) as the Raven runner to own.

- I'm surprised Ben Roethlisberger has thrown the ball so much this year - at least 30 attempts in every game this season - but the results have been great the past few weeks. I'm afraid they might not be the next two weeks (vs. Minnesota, at Denver), however.

- Jake Delhomme (9-for-17, 65 yards) is killing Steve Smith's value. So is the Panthers' rejuvenated running game. But I still don't think I can resist starting Smith this week against Buffalo.

- Clinton Portis registered his first 100-yard rushing game of the year Sunday. Too bad his upcoming schedule (Philly, at Atlanta, Denver, at Dallas, at Philly, New Orleans) and the Redskins' offensive turmoil (in other words, they suck) will make it hard for him to repeat it any time soon.

- Good to see the Jaguars' coaching staff took Maurice Jones-Drew's (33 carries, 133 yards, 3 TDs, plus 45 receiving yards) complaints to heart. Now let's see the same thing against Tennessee and Kansas City, OK?

- Matt Schaub now has 4 outstanding fantasy performances and two busts. Hopefully the Texans will keep airing it out and Schaub can be penciled in as a no-doubt, every-week starter.

- Aaron Rodgers still put together a good day (358 yards, 2 TDs) despite getting sacked 5 times. You can do that against Detroit (and Cleveland next week), but the Packers' protection problems have me very nervous about Rodgers in some of the tougher matchups he'll face later on.

- So much for Matt Hasselback (10-for-29, 112 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) being back to fantasy starter status. That was painful.

Week 2 recap

Plenty of monster (and not-so-monster) performances to dissect from Week 2:

-Hats off to Tennessee's Chris Johnson for looking very much like a top-3 running back after a lackluster Week 1: 16 carries, 197 yards, 2 TDs; 9 catches, 87 yards, TD. Just an awesome performance from a super-talented player.

-Another Johnson came up big Sunday, too: Houston's Andre Johnson, in the same game (10 catches, 149 yards, 2 TDs). I had the pleasure of starting both of them on the same team in one of my leagues. I won.

- Things aren't going as well for Houston's Steve Slaton, who now has 51 total rushing yards in two games and 0 TDs. The good news is after opening the year against two challenging defenses, things should get a little easier in the coming weeks (Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona).

- Frank Gore actually broke the 200-yard barrier (207 on just 16 carries) and scored twice. He also caught 5 passes for 39 yards for good measure and put the league on notice that the Niners' run game is no joke.

- Jake Delhomme wasn't great against Atlanta but he'll hold onto his starting job for the time being, which is good news for Steve Smith (8 catches, 131 yards) and his owners.

- Drew Brees halved last week's TD output but was still excellent (311 yards, 3 TDs), utilizing all his available weapons. And Mike Bell continues to run well (17 carries, 86 yards, TD) with Pierre Thomas on the shelf.

- Big effort from Cedric Benson for the Bengals (29 carries, 141 yards), but don't get too excited - he's got some brutal matchups on the horizon (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice and Chicago) in the next seven weeks.

- Aaron Rodgers hasn't lit it up the way I expected - two TDs in two games now. It doesn't help when you're sacked 5 times and your best WR, Greg Jennings, is held catchless. Here's hoping Rodgers and the Packers can do some damage against St. Louis.

- Buffalo's Fred Jackson is the real deal (163 rush yards, 25 receiving yards) and is a must-start next week against New Orleans. Does Marshawn Lynch HAVE to come back?

- Philip Rivers did just fine without a running game (436 yards, 2 TDs). Does LaDainian Tomlinson HAVE to come back?

8/27 Bust of the Day: Kurt Warner

QB KURT WARNER, ARIZONA CARDINALS

I know, I know. He threw for 30 TDs last year and he's got the league's best WR tandem in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. He's a top-five fantasy QB according to most fantasy pundits. But not me.

I put Warner at No. 6, and here's why: He's 38 years old, he had offseason hip surgery, and he's tanked before, due to both injury and poor play. A recent report by ESPN’s John Clayton said Warner’s surgically repaired left hip “hurts only when he stands or walks.” So does my grandfather's, and I'm not picking him for my fantasy team.

I don't hate Warner. I think he could have another good year and help out your fantasy team. But I'm a little wary of spending a high pick on him - I've seen him go as high as the fourth round - when I might be able to wait another round and get a younger, healthier guy like Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers, both of whom I think will outperform everyone's favorite former grocery bagger. If that hip still bothers Warner this year, or he and the Cards suffer the same letdown as other recent Super Bowl runners-up, or Warner's deal with the devil simply runs out (again) and he reverts back to the same mistake-prone, aging QB who lost his job in St. Louis and New York - well, I don't really want my fantasy team's success hinging on that.

Can you trust your quarterback?

In these uncertain times, it’s nice to know there’s someone you can trust.

By no means is this a political statement. I’m actually referring to your fantasy team’s quarterback, someone who can be plugged into your lineup week after week and unfailingly deliver the bulk of your points.

The problem is, there aren’t too many QBs who definitely fit this mold. Tom Brady used to be one, but we all know what happened to him this year. Peyton Manning is probably still one, even though he’s looked a little more mortal so far this year. And Tony Romo’s probably the most trustworthy QB out there right now, at least from a fantasy owner’s standpoint.

As for those who don’t own Manning or Romo, you’re probably relying on a quarterback with a lot of question marks attached to his name. I’ve taken a look at all the league’s starting signal-callers and identified those who deserve your trust the rest of the way. That’s not to say you’re hopeless if you don’t own one of the QBs who made the cut; just let this help you decide if you can count on your guy or if you need to consider an upgrade or backup plan.

Here’s how I break it down:

QBs YOU CAN TRUST

Jay Cutler: This coming-of-age QB is averaging 300 yards a game, second-best in the NFL, and has a number of options at his disposal.

Drew Brees: He leads the league in pass attempts and will continue to air it out, especially if his team’s defense doesn’t improve.

Brett Favre: His six-TD performance slants his overall numbers, but Favre will continue to improve as he learns the offense. He also has a very favorable schedule the next five weeks.

Philip Rivers: He’s starting to come down to Earth after starting with three superb games, but Rivers has already got more than half of last year’s TD total.

Eli Manning: What a difference a year makes. Eli’s been more efficient than flashy, and the schedule gets considerably tougher in a few weeks, but so far, so good.

Aaron Rodgers: Assuming his shoulder’s not hurt too badly, the Green Bay Packers will continue to let Rodgers throw, especially since they can’t run the ball very well.

Kurt Warner: Sure, he contemplated retiring, but he’s also enjoying one of his best seasons in years. Sounds like Anquan Boldin will be back in a couple weeks, which is great news for this pass-heavy offense.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s spent a lot of time on the trainer’s table this year, but a banged-up Big Ben is still capable of a big day, as he showed last week (309 yards, three TDs) when everyone was ready to count him out.

Jason Campbell: Maybe he and his team are overachieving … or maybe Campbell’s just fulfilling his potential. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks.

QBs YOU CAN'T TRUST

Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger/Trent Green, Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins, Brody Croyle/Damon Huard/Tyler Thigpen, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Gus Frerotte, David Garrard, Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Jon Kitna, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, J.T. O’Sullivan, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Schaub.