Week 1 Start 'Em: Harvin, Forte, Wells

It’s time once again for the Fantasy Focus weekly features, Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em. The concept is pretty simple: Each week, in preparation for that Sunday’s action, I’ll offer three guys I recommend for your starting lineup, then three guys I think you should stay away from.

I’m not going to waste your time, or mine, by telling you to start Peyton Manning and sit Sam Bradford. Duh. Instead I’ll be focusing on borderline guys, backups, flex players – because that’s where fantasy matchups are won or lost.

Just to keep me honest, I’ll also check in on my previous week’s picks so you can track my recommendations and hold me to them. Sound good? Alright, then here we go:





- PERCY HARVIN at Saints: Harvin says his doctors have found the cause of the debilitating migraines that have plagued him for years and put his 2010 season in jeopardy. The Vikings aren't sharing this medical breakthrough with the millions of other migraine sufferers, but I guess we can let that slide if Harvin can contribute to our fantasy teams. The Vikes seem to have no doubt that will be the case, as they traded away kick returner Darius Reynaud to give the job to Harvin. Minnesota would be wise to go to Harvin early and often with Sidney Rice on the shelf. He's an optimal flex play this week.

- MATT FORTE vs. Lions: If only Forte could've played Detroit 16 times last year. The Bears RB only cracked the 100-yard mark twice in an otherwise dismal 2009, but both came against the Lions: 121 yards and a TD in Week 4, 101 yards in Week 17. I'm not totally sold on a Forte comeback in 2010, but this is one week I'm buying.

- BEANIE WELLS vs. Rams: I'm still not sure how coach Ken Whisenhunt envisions splitting up the work this year between Cardinals RBs Beanie and Tim Hightower. But with Derek Anderson piloting the offense (yikes!) I expect to see a heavy workload for Wells. In his two meetings with St. Louis last year, Beanie ran for 74 yards and a TD and 64 yards and a TD, so we could very well see a repeat.

8/10 Sleeper of the Day: Dexter McCluster

WR/RB DEXTER McCLUSTER, Chiefs

Think of McCluster as Percy Harvin Lite. He won’t make quite as much of an impact as the versatile Viking did as a rookie last year, but he’ll be valuable nonetheless and won’t cost as much as Harvin did on draft day.

McCluster, Kansas City’s second-round draft pick in April, was an outstanding performer at Ole Miss, where he lined up all over the field and amassed 1,700 all-purpose yards and scored 11 total TDs as a senior.

Listed at only 5-foot-9 and 172 pounds, McCluster’s even smaller than Harvin, but he’s got just as much speed, and he’s no weakling, having put up 20 reps of 225 pounds in the bench press at the NFL Combine. The Chiefs, who’ve sorely lacked offensive playmakers in recent years, have visions of McCluster as a slot receiver, scat back, wildcat runner and return man. It’s hard to pin down his exact role, but coach Todd Haley has lined up him all over the field so far this preseason.

I can’t see McCluster challenging Jamaal Charles or Thomas Jones for too many carries out of the backfield or taking away too many receptions from Dwayne Bowe or Chris Chambers, but I think Kansas City will definitely try to get him a fair share of touches. As always with hybrid players of his ilk (Harvin, Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles) it’ll be difficult to count on McCluster for consistent production. But I like him as No. 4 WR who you might get a big week out of here or there when you need to sub him in or use him as your flex player. Look for him late in your draft.

Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

2009 Fantasy Awards, Pt. 1

Time for my annual season review and the handing out of some well-deserved honors. No popularity contests or personal biases here: These awards are based strictly on the cold, hard numbers and the players' direct impact on fantasy success.

Let's do this.


FANTASY MVP

I was tempted to give the honor to Aaron Rodgers, who produced as well as any quarterback this season but could have been taken in the 3rd or 4th round or later at most drafts. But while there were a few QBs at the top of the rankings with similar stats - Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning - one running back stood out from the pack at his position.

Chris Johnson's 2,006-yard rushing season will go down as one of the greatest in league history. CJ had a few disappointing games in the early weeks of 2009 - he had four sub-100-yard rushing performances in his first five games and failed to score a TD in any of them. But a monster Week 2 against Houston (197 rushing yards and 2 TDs, plus 87 receiving yards and a TD catch) showed us just what he was capable of. Johnson finished the season with 11 straight 100-plus-yard games. He scored 14 TDs on the ground, plus 2 more through the air to go with more than 500 receiving yards. In short, he was a fantasy beast, and in many leagues he wasn't among the top 5 or even 10 players drafted. That won't be the case next year.

BUST OF THE YEAR

I tended to be a little more bullish on Matt Forte's 2009 fantasy prospects than some publications. With the Bears' offseason acquisition of Jay Cutler, I thought Forte might significantly improve on a standout rookie season. Boy, was I wrong. He finished with just 929 rushing yards, down from last year's 1,238. He scored 4 rushing TDs, down from last year's 8. He caught 57 passes, down from last year's 63. He caught 0 TDs, down from last year's 4.

In other words, he was a bust.

2009 ALL FANTASY TEAM

QB - Drew Brees
RB1 - Chris Johnson
RB2 - Adrian Peterson
WR1 - Andre Johsnon
WR2 - Randy Moss
TE - Vernon Davis
K - David Akers
DEF - Eagles

PICKUP OF THE YEAR

Receivers Miles Austin of the Cowboys and Steve Smith of the Giants deserve recognition for going from off the radar to bona fide fantasy starters in 2009. But the honor goes to Kansas City's Jamaal Charles, who started the year blocked by Larry Johnson but finished as a 1,000-yard rusher. After the Chiefs unceremoniously dumped Johnson, Charles immediately stepped in with 103 yards and a TD against Oakland in Week 10 and never looked back. He scored 7 times in the season's final 8 weeks and topped 100 rushing yards in each of his final 4 games during a critical stretch of the fantasy season, culminating with his 259-yard, 2-TD showing in Week 17.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

First-year running backs Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells and LeSean McCoy were all valuable fantasy commodities at various times, but WR Percy Harvin gets the nod after catching 6 TDs. That's more than such fantasy stalwarts as Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Antonio Bryant. Harvin also rushed for 731 yards and scored two return TDs, making him one of the season's best flex players.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

I hate to say it, but it's got to be Favre. He tied Rodgers for the third most pasing TDs with 33, his most since 1997. He also threw only 7 TDs, his fewest ever in a full season. That was a whopping improvement on last year's ratio (22 TDs/22 INTs). Favre entered the year considered a marginal fantasy backup but was one of the game's best QBs in 2009.

Sit 'Em: Week 15

- RB MATT FORTE at Baltimore: Even if you've somehow managed to limp into the playoffs with Forte as one of your two starting RBs, you know that outside of a handful of games against the league's worst teams, he's been nothing more than average. And he'll be just average against a Ravens D that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 9. If you have a better alternative, bench the Bear.

- RB LeSEAN McCOY vs. San Francisco: Instead of being the second coming of Brian Westbrook, Shady has been darn near worthless the past few weeks. Besides, FB Leonard Weaver has been the bigger playmaker and gets the carries at the goal line for the Eagles. Don't expect much from McCoy against the league's fifth-ranked run defense.

- WR PERCY HARVIN at Carolina: The rookie sat out last week with migranes, and the trend (thankfully) in the NFL this year has been to be cautious with these kinds of ailments. Harvin was limited in practice Friday, and while the odds seem to favor him playing, he could end up a late scratch. With the Vikings playing the Sunday night game, that could wreck your plans this playoff weekend. Are you willing to take that risk?


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Beanie Wells surprised everybody with 15 carries for 79 yards and a TD, maybe surpassing Tim Hightower on the depth chart in the process.

- Steve Breaston had another 1-catch game. Warned you.

- Santana Moss had 4 catches for 58 yardszzzzzzzzz.

Sit 'Em: Week 8

- QB ELI MANNING at Philadelphia: Eli seems to be entering his usual second-half funk right on cue after two sub-par games. He's also been nothing special against the Eagles the past two seasons, accounting for 5 TDs and 5 INTs in his past five matchups against Philly, including last season's playoff loss.

- RB DARREN SPROLES vs. Oakland: You may be tempted to use the squirt just because the Raiders are so pathetic and were just gashed by the Jets' running game last week. But there's too much risk involved in starting a guy who has gotten just 11 total touches in his past three games combined.

- WR NATE WASHINGTON vs. Jacksonville: His string of three straight games with a TD seems like a distant memory after last week's stat line: 1 catch, -22 yards. That's right, NEGATIVE 22 YARDS. I can't in good conscious recommend starting Washington this week against Jacksonville after that gem, and the Titans' instability at the QB spot only further complicates the matter.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Donovan McNabb was pretty average against Washington as I predicted: 156 yards, 1 TD.

- The Saints surprisingly put up 46 points on the Dolphins, but Pierre Thomas (8 carries for 30 yards) wasn't part of the fun.

- Percy Harvin registered just 3 catches for 42 yards at Pittsburgh, but he did return a kick for a TD, which is nice if your league credits you for individual special teams scores.

Photo by The Associated Press

Sit 'Em: Week 7

- DONOVAN McNABB at Washington: Did you know Donovan has thrown 4 TDs in his past 4 games against the Redskins - and they all came in one game in 2007? He's also coming off a terrible game at Oakland (22 for 46, 269 yards, 0 TDs, 66.3 QB rating). May not be the best week to play him if you have a quality backup.

- PIERRE THOMAS at Miami: The Dolphins are allowing just 76 rushing yards a game, and Thomas, who's already stuck in a three-back rotation with Mike Bell and Reggie Bush, probably won't get enough touches to warrant a start this week.

- PERCY HARVIN at Pittsburgh: The rookie is questionable with a shoulder injury and is coming off a 2-catch, 10-yard game against Baltimore. I wouldn't expect much against the Steelers.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- LenDale White had 6 carries for 15 yards and a fumble in Tennessee's debacle against New England last week before exiting in the first half with a knee injury. I think he's officially cemented his "bust" status for 2009, don't you?

- Speaking of busts, Terrell Owens caught 3 passes for 13 yards last Sunday, and his season is probably only going to get worse with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for the Bills. In fact, it might even be time to drop him.

- OK, I was wrong about Hakeem Nicks, who had the best game of his young career (5 catches, 114 yards, TD). He's now scored in three straight games and could keep that streak alive this week vs. Arizona.

Week 3 Recap

Random fantasy thoughts while watching the Giants flat out dominate the Bucs on Sunday at Tampa's Raymond James Stadium ...


- Steve Smith (7 catches, 63 yards, TD) is Eli Manning's go-to receiver, no doubt about it. He's a must-own in all leagues at this point.

- Josh Johnson is the new Bucs starting QB, replacing Byron Leftwich. He's about the only Buc who showed a pulse on Sunday and deserves the start against Washington. But I want him nowhere near my fantasy team right now.

-Frank Gore's ankle injury is a huge letdown a week after his 200-yard game. Expect him to be out at least this week, and possibly two more after that (including a bye in Week 6). Preseason standout Glen Coffee will be a good waiver pickup this week and a sneaky play against the Rams next Sunday.

- Welcome to fantasy relevance, Vernon Davis (7 catches, 96 yards, TD). We've been waiting for you, man.

- Percy Harvin (101-yard kickoff return for a TD) continues to make an impact every week.

- Do the Patriots finally have a clear No. 1 tailback in Fred Taylor (21 carries, 105 yards, TD)? Maybe. Too bad he's got to face Baltimore next week, and then the Pats will probably reshuffle the whole rotation after that.

- Donovan McNabb has to be champing at the bit seeing the damage Kevin Kolb (327 yards, 2 TDs Sunday) is doing and looking forward to a possible Week 5 return against the Bucs after the Eagles' bye.

- Willis McGahee (7 carries, 67 yards, 2 TDs) apparently can't be stopped, but Ray Rice (11 carries, 48 yards, TD) is still getting the most work in the Ravens backfield. Le'Ron McClain (2 carries, 7 yards) is pretty much out of the picture at this point.

- Welcome, Pierre Thomas (14 carries, 126 yards, 2 TDs - all in the second half). It's now safe to use him, in case you were wondering.

- Speaking of Pierres, WR Pierre Garcon now has a place in the Colts lineup and should have a place on your roster after scoring for the second straight week.

Start 'Em: Week 3

Need help picking a winner this week? Read on ...



- FELIX JONES vs. Carolina: After a quiet Week 1, Jones erupted in Week 2 (96 yards, TD) and showed off the big-play potential we knew he possessed. Now he runs against a surprisingly poor Panthers rush defense, and Marion Barber (quad) might not even suit up.

- VINCENT JACKSON vs. Miami: He's scored a TD each week so far, and he and QB Philip Rivers are coming off a huge game against Baltimore. Plus, Miami has given up more than 500 yards and 4 TDs through the air in two games.

- TIM HIGHTOWER vs. Indianapolis: I still believe Beanie Wells, not Hightower, will end up the most valuable Cardinals back at season's end. But until Beanie can cure his fumbilitis (two last week), Hightower's the man. He's been involved in the passing game and gets the red-zone carries.


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Percy Harvin got seven touches and scored for the second straight week. He'll be a good flex option again this week against San Fran.

- Antwaan Randle El didn't do much (4 catches, 39 yards) against the Rams, but neither did any of the other Redskins really. Despite the poor showing I'd still be tempted to use him against Detroit this week.

- Correll Buckhalter matched Knowshon Moreno's output on the ground (76 yards for Buckhalter, 75 for Moreno) on half the carries. Granted, he did have a 45-yard TD run, which will help pad the stats, but no one's complaining. Buckhalter also caught one pass for 30 yards.

Start 'Em: Week 2

-WR PERCY HARVIN vs. Lions: I've been harsh on the young dude, but if there was ever a week to pencil him in as your flex player or No. 2 WR, this is it.

-WR ANTWAAN RANDLE EL vs. Rams: He was more effective than No. 1 WR Santana Moss in Week 1 (7 catches, 98 yards). I'll take a gamble that he'll find the end zone against the Rams, victimized for 3 TDs through the air last Sunday.

-RB CORRELL BUCKHALTER vs. Browns: I'm not a fan of Buckhalter's long-term, mostly because Knowshon Moreno is the future. But those two are splitting carries right now (8 apiece in Week 1), and Buckhalter was the more effective runner. He's also playing the Browns, who were abused by Adrian Peterson last week.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS:

- Ray Rice ran for 108 yards on 19 carries - almost twice as many as Ravens backfield mate Willis McGahee (10). Unfortunately, both McGahee and fullback Le'Ron McClain found the end zone against the Chiefs, and Rice did not. Rice also had 2 catches for 12 yards.

- Shaun Hill was 18-of-31 for 209 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs against Arizona. Effective, but not as good as I'd hoped. But he did win the game, if that means anything. Which it doesn’t.

- Julius Jones ran 19 times for 119 yards and a TD vs. the Rams. Jackpot.

9/3 Bust of the Day: Percy Harvin

WR PERCY HARVIN, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Don't get me wrong, I respect Harvin's playmaking abilities and the Vikes' willingness to utilize him in a variety of ways on the field. But I'm hearing a bit too much hype about a rookie wide receiver, a position that often tends to disappoint.


Minnesota has been in desperate need of a playmaker not named Adrian Peterson, and Harvin, the electrifying former Florida Gator certainly fits the bill. I think he'll be a big contributor and end up with decent numbers on the season. But the problem is his production won't come consistently - not with him being used in gimmicky formations like the Wildcat and as a returner. I see him being a boom-or-bust type player, and I'm not sure that's the guy I'd want as my No. 3 WR when I can take a Ted Ginn Jr., Devin Hester, Kevin Walter or Jerricho Cotchery who I know will be getting targeted on a more regular basis. I'd be thrilled if he falls to me as my No. 4 WR, because he's exactly the type of big-risk, big-reward player you'd want in that slot, but I have a feeling he'll be taken much too early for that in most leagues. If that's the case, I'll pass.

Favre's fantasy outlook

Just when you thought it was safe to rank your fantasy QBs ... Brett Favre is back.

Remember this?



Forget it.

And this?



Never happened.

The old guy's latest return to the NFL shouldn't shake up things too much. If there's anything his 2008 campaign with the Jets taught us, it's that Favre is simply an average QB at this point (22 TDs, 22 INTs), one who is still capable of putting points on the board but is also a major injury risk. At age 39 (40 in October), that's to be expected.

The move to Minnesota shouldn't drastically alter his output, either. He's got some nice weapons at WR (Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin), but then, he had some in New York too. He'll obviously have a stronger running game to rely on - maybe the league's best with Adrian Peterson toting the rock - but that just means he won't have to wing it as much as he has in years past, something which actually helped pad his fantasy stats in years past.

I'm amending my 2009 QB rankings to put Favre at No. 18, which makes him a low-level No. 2 QB in most 10-team leagues. In other words, he might make for a decent spot starter, but you can't rely on him to carry a team, and I wouldn't take him over younger, healthier, steadier veterans (Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck) or less established QBs who have more upside (Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton).

How does Vick fit into the fantasy world?

Michael Vick continues to grab all the headlines and will be perhaps the biggest story in the NFL as the season opens. But that doesn't mean he should command too much attention from fantasy players.

Vick's signing with the Eagles is the kind of storyline fans and pundits will be talking about for weeks and months, but for fantasy purposes it's just another transaction. No need to go making a major overhaul to your pre-draft rankings. Sure, Vick's an intriguing late-round sleeper because Philly figures to use him in the wildly popular "Wildcat" role that often results in big plays. He gives the Eagles another skilled player who can certainly be an effective runner/passer/receiver in their West Coast offense. But honestly, how many touches can he get in an offense that also includes Pro Bowl performers like Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook and young playmakers DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin?

The idea behind the Wildcat is to utilize the elements of surprise and unpredictability, so how consistently would Vick be used anyway? At least other presumed Wildcat players around the league - Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams in Miami, Percy Harvin in Minnesota - will be taking more snaps at their regular positions throughout the game, whereas Vick would only be stepping onto the field at a few strategic points when the Eagles use the package.

Make no mistake, McNabb is the starting QB. This won't be an even timeshare. Of course, taking into account McNabb's history, there is a decent chance of him getting injured at some point and Vick perhaps taking over, but that's not something you can bank on. And even then, the Eagles do have a supposed QB of the future, Kevin Kolb (although he's hurt right now). And assuming Vick is listed on Philly's roster as a QB and is eligible at that position in fantasy leagues, it's hard to justify taking him as your No. 2 fantasy QB when you could instead own another starter in the league - say, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, etc. - who will see the field far more often and produce many more points on a more consistent basis.

If your league allows three QBs, by all means, take Vick. If your league allows really deep rosters with open bench spots from any position, Vick's your guy. If the Eagles for some reason use Vick exclusively as a RB/WR, snatch him up. The potential is there for some cheap fantasy points. But good luck predicting when they might come.

The true concern for fantasy purposes should rest with anyone who owns an Eagles skill player. Every time Vick touches the ball he'll be taking away potential points from Westbrook, Jackson and co. And more alarmingly, how will the signing affect McNabb's psyche? You could look at it as yet another slap in the face for a franchise QB who's been maligned by his team's fans for years, witnessed the franchise draft a potential replacement (Kolb) and who was benched by his coach last year for poor play. Now McNabb's got to deal with the circus that follows such a publicized move, and the guy may have to take a backseat to Vick at key points in the game and give up snaps. There's potential here for bad blood and fan backlash if the Eagles, clearly in a win-now-at-all-costs mode, aren't winning. And instability is never a good thing for fantasy production. Maybe it's no big deal, but it's something to think about