Week 1 Recap, Part I: Foster's for real

A few musings from Week 1's action while I thank the football gods for DirecTV's NFL Sunday Ticket free preview:

- Welcome to fantasy stardom, Arian Foster (231 yards, 3 TDs). We’re waiting with baited breath to see what you do in Week 2.

- Somebody slow down the C.J. Spiller bandwagon. Seven carries for 6 yards isn’t going to cut it as a fantasy star yet.

- For those who were wondering who would be Mike Martz’s most utilized wideout in Chicago (Devin Hester? Johnny Knox? Devin Aromashodu)?), the surprising answer was his RB, Matt Forte, who led the team with 7 catches for a whopping 151 yards and 2 TDs. The other three combined for 9 receptions.

- Roll on, Chris Johnson (27 carries, 142 yards, 2 TDs).

- Guess Wes Welker is OK – 11 targets, 8 catches, 2 TDs. Those who got him at a discount price this year because of the injury concerns have to be smiling right about now, especially with the Jets up next on the Pats’ schedule. In his last four games vs. Gang Green, the Welk Man has averaged 7 catches for 92 yards.

- Giants WR Hakeem Nicks established himself as a fantasy force with 3 TDs against Carolina. Granted, he only had 4 catches, but Eli Manning targeted him 8 times, as many as Steve Smith.

- Roddy White’s stat line against Pittsburgh was strong (13 catches, 111 yards), but the most eye-opening number was the whopping 23 targets. With those kind of looks he could demolish Arizona this week.

- Could Peyton Hillis be a factor in the Browns’ backfield? Sure, given the fact he had 9 carries (as many as starter Jerome Harrison) and also scored a TD.

Lamenting a lost league

This will be the first season in at least 8 or 9 years that my dad and I won't be sharing a fantasy football team.

The tradition started back when I was in college. Dad got invited to join a league run by some of his younger colleagues at his office back in New Jersey, where he's a supervisor. Dad's always been a big football fan - a standout prep player in his day and a lifelong Giants fan, he taught me most of what I know about the game, and even a little on how to bet on it - but he wanted my help with picking the team. So we came to an agreement: He'd front the league entry fee, and I'd handle the draft and weekly lineup, acting as a kind of GM. And thus, Ace in the Hole was born.

Now, this was no run-of-the mill fantasy league. First off, the yearly league entry fee has always been at least $100, plus anywhere from $2 to $5 for every transaction. And instead of just a 10-team league, it was actually set up with TWO divisions of 10 teams apiece, with the two division champs ultimately meeting in the fantasy super bowl. The divisions (in reference to Dad, we were placed in the "Old People" division, as opposed to "Young People") each held separate drafts, so the same players could be owned in both. You'd play all the teams in your division during the season, but you'd also face some cross-divisional opponents as well, which always led to some interesting dilemmas. For instance, you might own Priest Holmes but end up facing another team that had Holmes in its starting lineup. Would you start Holmes as well in the hopes of canceling each other out? Or would you risk starting some other running back in his place in the hopes of outscoring the "other" Holmes?

The drafts were always a good time. They were usually held on a Friday night in late August at somebody's house, with the "Young People" set up in folding chairs in the backyard and the "Old People" huddled around a converted poker table inside enjoying the AC. The beer flowed freely from a keg, and some of Central Jersey's finest cuisine, from tomato pie to hoagies to wings, was on the menu.

In our first couple years of competing I was able to attend with Dad, with draft day coming before I went back to college to start the semester. But in subsequent years, when the real world called and I held newspaper jobs that kept me in the office on Friday nights, I had to draft long distance, with Dad attending in person to make the picks and me strategizing with him via cell phone. I spent many a Friday night with one eye on my work on the computer screen (my editors will love reading this) and another on our cheat sheet, with my right earlobe and my cell phone minutes burning up. A couple years ago I even picked the whole team on the phone while on a 7-hour road trip from Columbus, Ga., to Bradenton, much to the delight of the other four people trapped in the minivan with me.

There are a lot of other fond, and not-so-fond, memories that stick out from Ace in the Hole's existence. Like the time we only needed one stinking catch from Shannon Sharpe on a Monday Night Football game to clinch a fantasy playoff spot and didn't get it (we still haven't forgiven him). Or the time Daunte Culpepper's awesome 39-TD season in 2004 led us to the postseason; we had him again in 2005 and his injury-plagued debacle that year destroyed us.

I'll always remember the guys who played well for us (Tiki Barber, Mike Alstott) and the guys who didn't (LaMont Jordan, Matt Forte). And I won't forget the Sunday afternoons when Dad and I would call each other to rejoice over those guys or curse them out. We're both men of few words, so Ace in the Hole always gave us something easy to talk about and helped us stay in touch, especially these past few years with me living in Florida and him back in the Garden State.

Dad decided to pull the plug on Ace in the Hole this year. He wasn't really thrilled about fronting the entry fee, economic times being as they are. Maybe it would have helped if we made the playoffs more than the few times we did over the years and at least won our money back. But also, the sad truth is most of the guys he worked with and made up our league over the years got laid off when Dad's company went through some massive downsizing and outsourcing recently. Much of the enjoyment he got from being in the league came from ragging on those guys during the week around the office, telling them his kid was going to build a championship team that would kick their butts. Now most of those guys aren't around anymore, and a lot of them dropped out of the league too.

I'll still play in other leagues of course, but I don't think it can ever be the same. If you're in one this great, enjoy it. If you share a team with your dad or your son, cherish it while it lasts.

I know I do.

What the Mike Martz hiring means to you

The mad scientist is back in the NFL.

The Chicago Bears hired Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator on Monday in the hopes of reviving a stagnant offense that was a huge disappointment in 2009.


Martz, best known as the offensive guru behind the St. Louis Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" of the early part of the last decade, had been out of football last year. The move is particularly significant for fantasy owners because Martz, unlike some other first-time coordinators we see get hired from time to time, brings a signature offensive style to the table. Thus, we should have a good idea what to expect out of Bears skill players in 2010.

We all know what Martz accomplished with the Rams - a pass-heavy offense based on precision and timing that set league record books ablaze and made stars out of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.

It'd be hard to expect the same acrobatics out of the Bears offense in 2010, so let's take a closer look at Martz's accomplishments as an offensive coordinator after his fallout in St. Louis. Martz spent 2006-07 as an assistant in Detroit, a team with a serious talent deficit. Still, he helped QB Jon Kitna twice pass for 4,000 yards in a season. He coached WR Roy Williams to his best pro season (1,310 yards, 7 TDs in 2006). He squeezed a career-high 61 catches and 520 receiving yards out of RB Kevin Jones that year. He made unheralded WRs Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey fantasy relevant (and they haven't been heard from since).

Sure, the Lions never became world-beaters under Martz's guidance, but he did get production out of players who've done little or nothing otherwise in their NFL careers. In Martz's next stop, in San Francisco in 2008, he helped seven players rack up more than 300 receiving yards. Again, there was no Super Bowl appearance for the 49ers and no records were set, but Martz's track record stayed intact.

So we know what to expect out of the Bears in 2010 under Martz: Jay Cutler will get back to being a 4,000-yard passer and throw more TDs. Matt Forte will continue to get a lot of pass-catching opportunities (although his rushing stats aren't likely to improve). And the Bears' young receivers - Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu - should all see spikes in their stats. There's more raw talent in the Windy City than at Martz's last two stops, and the mad scientist may be able to do some real damage this time.

2009 Fantasy Awards, Pt. 1

Time for my annual season review and the handing out of some well-deserved honors. No popularity contests or personal biases here: These awards are based strictly on the cold, hard numbers and the players' direct impact on fantasy success.

Let's do this.


FANTASY MVP

I was tempted to give the honor to Aaron Rodgers, who produced as well as any quarterback this season but could have been taken in the 3rd or 4th round or later at most drafts. But while there were a few QBs at the top of the rankings with similar stats - Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning - one running back stood out from the pack at his position.

Chris Johnson's 2,006-yard rushing season will go down as one of the greatest in league history. CJ had a few disappointing games in the early weeks of 2009 - he had four sub-100-yard rushing performances in his first five games and failed to score a TD in any of them. But a monster Week 2 against Houston (197 rushing yards and 2 TDs, plus 87 receiving yards and a TD catch) showed us just what he was capable of. Johnson finished the season with 11 straight 100-plus-yard games. He scored 14 TDs on the ground, plus 2 more through the air to go with more than 500 receiving yards. In short, he was a fantasy beast, and in many leagues he wasn't among the top 5 or even 10 players drafted. That won't be the case next year.

BUST OF THE YEAR

I tended to be a little more bullish on Matt Forte's 2009 fantasy prospects than some publications. With the Bears' offseason acquisition of Jay Cutler, I thought Forte might significantly improve on a standout rookie season. Boy, was I wrong. He finished with just 929 rushing yards, down from last year's 1,238. He scored 4 rushing TDs, down from last year's 8. He caught 57 passes, down from last year's 63. He caught 0 TDs, down from last year's 4.

In other words, he was a bust.

2009 ALL FANTASY TEAM

QB - Drew Brees
RB1 - Chris Johnson
RB2 - Adrian Peterson
WR1 - Andre Johsnon
WR2 - Randy Moss
TE - Vernon Davis
K - David Akers
DEF - Eagles

PICKUP OF THE YEAR

Receivers Miles Austin of the Cowboys and Steve Smith of the Giants deserve recognition for going from off the radar to bona fide fantasy starters in 2009. But the honor goes to Kansas City's Jamaal Charles, who started the year blocked by Larry Johnson but finished as a 1,000-yard rusher. After the Chiefs unceremoniously dumped Johnson, Charles immediately stepped in with 103 yards and a TD against Oakland in Week 10 and never looked back. He scored 7 times in the season's final 8 weeks and topped 100 rushing yards in each of his final 4 games during a critical stretch of the fantasy season, culminating with his 259-yard, 2-TD showing in Week 17.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

First-year running backs Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells and LeSean McCoy were all valuable fantasy commodities at various times, but WR Percy Harvin gets the nod after catching 6 TDs. That's more than such fantasy stalwarts as Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Antonio Bryant. Harvin also rushed for 731 yards and scored two return TDs, making him one of the season's best flex players.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

I hate to say it, but it's got to be Favre. He tied Rodgers for the third most pasing TDs with 33, his most since 1997. He also threw only 7 TDs, his fewest ever in a full season. That was a whopping improvement on last year's ratio (22 TDs/22 INTs). Favre entered the year considered a marginal fantasy backup but was one of the game's best QBs in 2009.

Sit 'Em: Week 15

- RB MATT FORTE at Baltimore: Even if you've somehow managed to limp into the playoffs with Forte as one of your two starting RBs, you know that outside of a handful of games against the league's worst teams, he's been nothing more than average. And he'll be just average against a Ravens D that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 9. If you have a better alternative, bench the Bear.

- RB LeSEAN McCOY vs. San Francisco: Instead of being the second coming of Brian Westbrook, Shady has been darn near worthless the past few weeks. Besides, FB Leonard Weaver has been the bigger playmaker and gets the carries at the goal line for the Eagles. Don't expect much from McCoy against the league's fifth-ranked run defense.

- WR PERCY HARVIN at Carolina: The rookie sat out last week with migranes, and the trend (thankfully) in the NFL this year has been to be cautious with these kinds of ailments. Harvin was limited in practice Friday, and while the odds seem to favor him playing, he could end up a late scratch. With the Vikings playing the Sunday night game, that could wreck your plans this playoff weekend. Are you willing to take that risk?


LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Beanie Wells surprised everybody with 15 carries for 79 yards and a TD, maybe surpassing Tim Hightower on the depth chart in the process.

- Steve Breaston had another 1-catch game. Warned you.

- Santana Moss had 4 catches for 58 yardszzzzzzzzz.

Week 9 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while crafting a petition to the Bucs to wear their creamsicle uniforms every week ...


- Michael Turner topped 150 yards for the second straight game and extended his scoring streak to eight straight games (166, 2 TDs). He's looking like the top-3 back we thought he'd be.

- Turner's counterpart, Clinton Portis, was knocked out against Atlanta and is looking doubtful for what could have been a decent Week 10 matchup vs. Denver. Ladell Betts (15 carries, 70 yards, TD) wasn't bad in his stead and could soon be in a Hot Pickups blog post near you.

- Who needs Anquan Boldin? The disgruntled and disappointing Cardinals WR was scratched because of a nagging ankle injury and the field conditions in Chicago (and he was none too pleased with how he was informed of the benching) ... and Kurt Warner still threw 5 TDs.

- Do Matt Forte's 6 catches for 74 yards make up for his 5 carries for 33 yards? I say no.

- Of course Greg Olsen would catch 3 TDs after I benched him at the last minute Saturday night and subbed in Heath Miller (3 catches, 18 yards).

- I gotta give it to Cedric Benson for proving me wrong so far. He's exceeded all my expectations in Cincinnati (117 more yards and a TD vs. Baltimore) and has become a must-start, even Week 10 against Pittsburgh and beyond.

- Laurence Maroney got his biggest workload of the season (20 carries) and scored for the third straight week. Is he finally a dependable fantasy starter? I'd give him a serious look for this week's showdown with Indy.

- The Packers' James Jones now has 3 receiving TDs this year, or 1 more than teammate Greg Jennings. That ain't right.

- Do we have a new fantasy star in Bucs QB Josh Freeman (14-for-31, 205 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT)? Anything's possible, but let's see what happens after the rest of the league gets some actual film on him. Encouraging start, though.

- So Chris Chambers gets released by San Diego last week, picked up by the awful Chiefs this week, plays his first game for K.C. on Sunday and has his most productive day (70 yards, 2 TDs) since Week 2 of last year. Go figure.

- Twelve carries, 22 yards for LaDainian Tomlinson. How the mighty have fallen. Last time he played the Giants, in 2005, he busted them for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Those were the days.

- Alex Smith sure does love him some Vernon Davis (10 catches, 102 yards, both career highs).

Week 8 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while tuning into the Fox Favre Cam ....

- Could be a great time to trade Brett Favre if you drafted him as your backup and have a capable No. 1 guy. I think his 4-TD game against his old team Sunday may end up being his high-water mark, stats-wise, this year, and he'll inevitably slow down and cool off as the season wears on.

- Hard to believe Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and two TDs and wasn't the best running back on the field Sunday in Tennessee. Chris Johnson laid the hammer down with 228 rushing yards and two TDs of his own. Those who drafted Matt Forte ahead of either of these guys could only watch with tears in their eyes.

- Speaking of Forte, the Bears RB justified his presence on your roster for another week (90 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland), but he'll be hard-pressed for an encore against the Cardinals' run D this week.

- Michael Turner has now scored in six straight games (8 TDs total). The streak will continue in Week 9 against Washington.

- Did Ryan Moats (126 yards, 3 TDs vs. Buffalo) just kill Steve Slaton's fantasy value? It's very possible ... see this week's Hot Pickups for more.

- Tony Romo (3 TDs) appears to have gotten back on track, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin as a fantasy star. The real litmus test for the boy wonder comes in the next two weeks on the road against Philly and Green Bay.

- Your allegiance to Steven Jackson hopefully paid off with 145 yards and his first rushing TD of the year Sunday against Detroit. Give the guy credit for playing hard and churning out the yardage despite the Rams' ineptitude.

- Joseph Addai threw more TD passes than Peyton Manning in Week 8. No need to worry about Peyton though - he's usually good for 1 or 2 of these TD-free games in a season, but you'll get more than your money's worth from him for the rest of the year. He could throw 4 against Houston this week.

- Eli Manning seems to be in one of his annual slumps, but he's probably worth sticking with as your No. 2 (he's thrown at least 1 TD every week) unless there's a more attractive free-agent option.

-Ray Rice has scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards in each of the past 5 weeks.

- DeAngelo Williams rushes for 158 yards, Jonathan Stewart scores two TDs. Can't have your cake and eat it too if you drafted a Panthers running back.

Week 7 Recap

- Wow, nice game, Frank Gore (13 carries, 32 yards) - welcome back, guy. Here's hoping the switch to Alex Smith at QB will help the 49ers' offense really get rolling.

- I'm not sure what a lung contusion feels like, but I'm hoping it's not bad enough to keep Andre Johnson out of a juicy matchup against the Bills this week. Dude was on quite a roll before getting hurt Sunday.

- Big-time effort from Ryan Grant (27 carries, 148 yards, TD), even if it was against the Browns. Unfortunately, up next he's got the Vikings, who held him to 51 yards a few weeks ago.

- Keep rolling, Philip Rivers (268 yards, 3 TDs vs. Kansas City). Oakland's up next.

- Steven Jackson keeps piling up the rushing yardage (134) but has yet to hit paydirt this season. That should end at Detroit this week.

- Vikings WR Sidney Rice posted another huge output (10 catches for 136 yards) and is putting up the numbers Bernard Berrian was supposed to this year. Could be in line for a third straight big game against Green Bay.

- Laurence Maroney did end up with the lion's share of the carries again for the Patriots (13) but his 43 rushing yards didn't quite live up to last week's 123 or 7.7 average. He did score a TD, but then again, who hasn't against the Bucs?

- The season-ending broken leg suffered by Leon Washington is a shame, but it's actually good news for Thomas Jones (26 carries, 121 yards, TD) and Shonn Greene (19 carries, 144 yards, TD). And just when the Jets are morphing into a running machine, they slam headfirst into the Dolphins' run defense.

- Finally, a respectable game for the Panthers' Steve Smith (6 catches, 99 yards) - this despite Jake Delhomme's 3 INTs and 56.5 passer rating. Is a QB change in Carolina's future? And will it make a difference?

- It's official: Miles Austin (6 catches, 171 yards, 2 TDs) is everything Roy Williams was supposed to be for the Cowboys, and then some. Unfortunately if you still own Roy it's probably too late to make that roster move. If it's not - you should.

- Thanks for nothing, Matt Forte (49 total yards). Do something against Cleveland this week or consider yourself dropped.

- Ricky Williams, dependable fantasy starter? Sunday's stats (9 carries, 80 yards, 3 TDs) and his season totals say yes.

- Beanie Wells had his best outing of his rookie season against the Giants (14 carries, 67 yards, TD) and appears to have supplanted Tim Hightower (4 carries, 9 yards). But be careful here - he did fumble, too, and that's the reason the Cardinals have been reluctant to use him too much.

- Could Brian Westbrook's concussion be the opening LeSean McCoy needed for fantasy stardom? Possibly, but don't get too pumped if you've had Shady sitting on your bench. McCoy's averaging only 3.6 yards a carry so far, and it wouldn't shock me to see Westbrook facing the Giants this week.

Matt Forte is killing me

Matt Forte is killing me.

I had this guy pegged as my No. 3 overall pick entering this season, right behind Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner. Ahead of Chris Johnson. Ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew. Ahead of Steven Jackson. Ahead of DeAngelo Williams.

How's that looking? Check this out:

PLAYER, YARDS, TDs

Adrian Peterson, 618, 7
Chris Johnson, 596, 2
Steven Jackson, 501, 0
Maurice Jones-Drew, 468, 8
DeAngelo Williams, 372, 4
Matt Forte, 294, 1

In other words, Forte's sucked.

This is a guy who rushed for 1,238 yards last year and 8 TDs. He also caught 63 balls for 477 yards and 4 more scores.

This year, he's caught only 18 balls, none for TDs.

You figured with strong-armed Jay Cutler in town, the Bears might rely a little less on the running game this year. I'll buy that. But didn't you figure Forte might be even more involved in the passing game? And even when they've run the ball with him, he hasn't been very effective - see his two fumbles on the goal line Sunday night against Atlanta.

Blame some of Forte's struggles on the Bears' schedule, which isn't getting any easier in the coming weeks. Five of Chicago's next six opponents rank in the upper-half of the league in run defense. We can only hope the Bears make a sustained effort to run the ball and Forte keeps getting carries and can somehow regain last year's form.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 4 recap

Some random thoughts ...

- Rashard Mendenhall (above) finally had that coming-out party I and many others predicted (29 carries, 165 yards, 2 TDs subbing for starter Willie Parker vs. San Diego). But did you have the patience to hold onto him through the first three weeks of the season? I'm guessing not, especially after Week 3's embarrassment, in which he got zero carries because he hasn't learned the playbook. The Steelers have a legit RB controversy on their hands entering Sunday's game against Detroit, and Mendenhall must be owned.

- Good to see Matt Forte (121 yards, TD) finally look like a first-round fantasy draft choice. The Lions will do that for you.

- No need to worry too much about using Kevin Smith on a weekly basis. Although he only managed 30 rushing yards against a tough Bears D, the Lions had enough confidence in him (despite a sore shoulder) to give him 19 carries, including goal-line touches, and he responded with two short TDs. That's enough to make him a borderline No. 2 this week even though he'll be running against the Steelers.

- You better believe Cleveland's Jerome Harrison will be on my Hot Pickups list this week after his 121 yards against Cincinnati, the season-ending injury to one of my big sleeper picks, James Davis, and Jamal Lewis' creakiness.

- Chances are if you drafted the Panthers' Steve Smith this summer, someone in your league probably made a dumb joke about how "you mean the GIANTS' Steve Smith, right?" and everyone had a big laugh. Well, they aren't laughing now, not after the New York WR caught his third and fourth TD passes of the season on Sunday and the Panthers star has yet to hit the end zone. Now, the original Steve Smith could still end up being more valuable for fantasy purposes, but he's already in the hole, and the Giants' Smith faces Oakland this week. Keep starting him.

- Continue to start Mike Sims-Walker (7 catches, 91 yards, 2 TDs), along with every receiver facing the Titans secondary. Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, you're on deck!

- Tony Romo (255 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) gets one more chance to show me something against the awful Chiefs this week before I come up with a Plan B for my starting QB.

- Steve Slaton (89 total yards, 1 rush TD, 1 receiving TD, 1 fumble lost) is trying to work his way back into fantasy owners' hearts. Have another productive game against Arizona this week, Steve, and maybe you'll win us back for good.

Photo by The Associated Press

When stars refuse to shine

I know a bunch of people are bummed by their first- or second-round pick's performance in Week 1. I'm talking about guys like:

Chris Johnson (57 yards, 0 TDs)

Michael Turner (65 yards, 0 TDs)

Matt Forte (55 yards, 0 TDs)

Steve Smith (21 yards, 0 TDs)

Andre Johnson (35 yards, 0 TDs)

Steve Slaton (17 yards, 0 TDs)

Clinton Portis (62 yards, 0 TDs)

Brandon Jacobs (46 yards, 0 TDs)

Anquan Boldin (19 yards, 0 TDs)

and

Steven Jackson (67 yards, 0 TDs)

Those performances were all tough to swallow. But one of the worst mistakes you can make is to overreact to one game. There were reasons for all of those disappointments , from tough matchups (C. Johnson vs. Pittsburgh, Portis vs. the Giants, Slaton and A. Johnson vs. the Jets) to lingering injuries (Boldin) to poor offensive gameplans (Forte) to awful QB play (Smith). But you were willing to spend a high pick and build your team around all of those guys a week ago, so there's no need to go flipping out and totally writing off the season. All of those players are still studs and will serve you well in the weeks ahead.

2009 fantasy football awards

As we flip the calendar to 2009, let us reflect on the fantasy season that was. Touchdowns were scored, championships were won and lost, and grown men and women spent the past four months arguing and obsessing over imaginary football teams.

Isn’t fantasy great?

Here are some players who deserve special recognition before we close the book on the 2008 fantasy football season:

MVP AWARD
Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner rushed for more yards, but DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers ran for a league-high 18 TDs and had some truly monster games down the stretch when we needed him most. And he wasn’t drafted in most leagues until at least the fourth round!

BUST OF THE YEAR AWARD
Maybe it’s unfair, Tom Brady gets the dishonor suffering a devastating knee injury in Week 1. If you made Brady your first pick, here’s what you got out of him: seven completions, 76 yards, zero TDs and a season of what ifs.

2008 ALL FANTASY TEAM
QB: Drew Brees; RB1: DeAngelo Williams; RB2: Michael Turner; WR1: Anquan Boldin; WR2: Larry Fitzgerald; TE: Tony Gonzalez; K: Stephen Gostkowski; DEF: Baltimore Ravens.

PICKUP OF THE YEAR AWARD

Matt Cassel’s own family members wouldn’t have drafted him this year, but the former unknown finished the season as a top-10 fantasy QB filling in for Brady.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Forte and Steve Slaton share the honors after both rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs in their debut seasons.

FUTURE FANTASY STUD AWARD
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree could be a fantasy No. 2 by the end of 2009, provided he winds up in the right offense with the right QB. Oakland Raiders, you’re on the clock.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD
Thomas Jones rushed for 13 TDs for the New York Jets — almost doubling his total from the previous two seasons.

MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER AWARD
Let’s say your team has a comfortable lead, but your opponent has one player left in the Monday night game. Who do you fear most? For me it’s Brian Westbrook, a versatile little son-of-a-gun who’s capable of a four-TD effort on any given day. And I should know: I went head-to-head with a Westbrook owner twice in one league this season, and the dude scored SEVEN TDs against me in two games.

ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD
Brady Quinn enjoyed a promising debut as an NFL starter Nov. 9 against Denver, throwing for 239 yards and two TDs. Then he failed to find the end zone in the next two games before suffering a season-ending injury.

BEST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I was high on Kevin Smith and Roddy White as preseason sleepers; I jumped on the bandwagons of Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Tim Hightower early; I wasn’t buying the Darren McFadden or David Garrard hype; I predicted a huge bounce-back by Donovan McNabb (four TDs) in Week 13 against Arizona when everyone said he was done.

WORST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I believed Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards could form the nucleus of a fantasy champion; I picked Cincinnati Bengals tight end Ben Utecht (who?) as one of my top sleepers; I didn’t have Steve Slaton ranked in my top 50 preseason running backs.

RISING STOCK
Kevin Smith, Tyler Thigpen, Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson.

FALLING STOCK
Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Tony Romo, Reggie Bush, Braylon Edwards, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens.

SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2009
1. Adrian Peterson; 2. Michael Turner; 3. Drew Brees; 4. Matt Forte; 5. Chris Johnson; 6. Brian Westbrook; 7. DeAngelo Williams; 8. Randy Moss; 9. Brandon Jacobs; 10. LaDainian Tomlinson

Using the NFL schedule to your advantage

As the days get colder and the NFL moves into Week 12, our thoughts begin to turn toward playoff time.

Every week is critical now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel and begin to position our teams for a postseason run. It’s time to take a serious look at the remainder of the NFL schedule and the matchups that will help you maximize your fantasy team’s potential.

I often use statistical rankings as a guide for which teams are the toughest and easiest to run and pass against. Of course anything can happen on any given week, but a quarterback who faces a few of the league’s 10 weakest pass defenses in the coming weeks is more likely to outperform his peers and give your team a boost in these critical games.

I’ve analyzed the schedule and crunched the numbers for you. Here are some of the players with the best and worst matchups in the next few weeks:

FULL SPEED AHEAD

g Matt Ryan and Roddy White of the Atlanta Falcons bobbled last week’s potential game-winning bomb, but after a tough test this week against Carolina, they should shine against San Diego and New Orleans in Weeks 13 and 14.

g Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte’s been on a decent roll lately. That should continue this week against St. Louis and pick up again when he closes out the season vs. Green Bay and Houston.

g Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo’s pinky shouldn’t be much of a problem against San Francisco this week or Seattle the next - assuming he's done hanging out with homeless dudes.

g Jamal Lewis hasn’t cracked 90 rushing yards in a game this season for the Cleveland Browns. His best chances come when his team hosts Houston this week and Indianapolis the next — then the fun’s over at Tennessee.

g As if the Titans’ running duo of LenDale White and Chris Johnson wasn’t already valuable, check out these upcoming opponents: Detroit (Week 13), Cleveland (Week 14), Houston (Week 15) and Indianapolis (Week 17).

g Miami Dolphins QB Chad Pennington gets to air it out against St. Louis, San Francisco, Kansas City and his old team, the Jets, in four of the season’s final five weeks.

g Jeff Garcia of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could do some damage against Detroit this week, New Orleans the next and San Diego’s league-worst pass defense in Week 16, aka the Super Bowl in most fantasy leagues.

g Brett Favre and his receiving corps could put on a show against Denver (Week 13), San Francisco (Week 14) and Seattle (Week 16).

g Buffalo’s Trent Edwards and Lee Evans have been relegated to the bench in most leagues. But they might be able to get back on track thanks to a schedule that includes Kansas City, San Francisco, the New York Jets and Denver.

NOT SO FAST

g Marion Barber deserves the benefit of the doubt, but his Cowboys face a brutal stretch of run-stuffers starting in Week 13 — Pittsburgh, the Giants and Baltimore.

g Detroit Lions rookie RB Kevin Smith also must run a brutal three-game gauntlet starting this week — Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota.

g It looks like Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is starting to break out of his funk, and facing Cincinnati this week might continue the trend. But after that he meets four brick walls known as New England, Dallas, Baltimore and Tennessee.

g You hardly ever sit Saints QB Drew Brees, but be warned: He faces two of the league’s top five pass defenses (Green Bay, Tampa Bay) the next two weeks.

g Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis has been excellent this year when healthy. So he might just be a little less excellent against the Giants and Ravens in Weeks 13 and 14.

All-Dolphins lineup? Why not?

If you’ve been tinkering with the idea of starting an all-Miami Dolphins lineup, this might be the week to do it.

Normally this would sound a little crazy, unless we were talking about the Dan Marino-Mark Clayton-Mark Duper days of the mid-1980s, in which case it’d be totally radical.
But seriously, submitting a fantasy lineup of QB Chad Pennington, WRs Ted Ginn Jr. and Greg Camarillo and RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams this week might not be such a wacky idea.

That’s because the Fish are facing the Denver Broncos, who hold the distinction of being one of only two NFL teams (along with the Detroit Lions) ranked in the league’s bottom five in both passing defense and rushing defense.

Discombobulated Denver is 28th against the pass (240 yards a game, 12 TDs allowed) and 30th against the run (154 yards a game, nine TDs). They’ve been responsible for some of the biggest individual efforts we’ve seen this season – Drew Brees’ 421 passing yards in Week 3; Larry Johnson’s 198 rushing yards in Week 4; Sammy Morris’ 138 rushing yards in the first half alone last week.

The Broncos are coming off a bye, so surely they spent some of that time rewriting the defensive playbook. But it’s still not a bad idea to dive in with at least some of the Dolphins this week for their favorable matchup in South Florida.

Miami’s offense is clicking right now, with Pennington (314 yards, TD) and Ginn (seven catches, 175 yards) each coming off their best outing while wearing aqua and orange. Brown has had some big weeks running in the Dolphins’ trendy “Wildcat” offense this year (519 total yards, seven TDs). And Camarillo and Williams, usually bit players, are certainly worth consideration this week as bye-week fillers.

The point is this: Never discount the matchup when assembling your lineup. Familiarize yourself with the NFL’s weakest Ds – not by reputation, but statistically – and use that information to your advantage. For instance:

g The Indianapolis Colts are atrocious against the run; New England Patriots no-names Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are fantasy-worthy this week.

g The Kansas City Chiefs are equally allergic to playing run defense; Earnest Graham, it’s your time to shine.

g The Seattle Seahawks secondary has struggled; Donovan McNabb, Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson and crew could have big days Sunday.

g The Detroit Lions are inept in all areas of defense; Kyle Orton and Matt Forte will prove it.