8/27 Bust of the Day: Chad Ochocinco

I'm torn over everybody's favorite reality star. On one hand, it's almost hard to take him seriously as a football player because of all the Twittering and self-promoting off the field and silliness on it. He's also 32 years old and appears to be past his prime, when he was catching 90-plus passes a year with regularity.

On the other hand, Ocho did have 72 receptions, 1,047 yards and 9 TDs in 2009, numbers that are nothing to sniff at and which represented a bounce-back year for him. The flip side is that 2008 was a real clunker - 53 catches, 540 yards (10.2 yards a reception) and  just 4 TDs.

So what can we expect this year? Ocho's still the Bengals' No. 1 option, but his supporting cast is much improved with the additions of Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant and rookie Jordan Shipley. Can QB Carson Palmer keep them all happy? Will Palmer's arm hold up all year? Or will Cincinnati lean on workhorse back Cedric Benson?

My gut tells me Ochocinco still has some life left in him, his rapport with Palmer will still be there, and the addition of T.O., while a potential headache-inducer, will also loosen up some coverages. I think he'll have fantasy value. But I believe people will overpay for him on draft day because of his name and past reputation alone. He's being selected, on average, as the 15th WR off the board in ESPN leagues right now, which sounds OK, but I wouldn't go any higher than that. I could see younger wideouts like Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon or Michael Crabtree outperforming him, or at least equaling his best-case-scenario stats, while coming at a lower price.

Ochocinco's a low-end No. 2 for me, and a risky one at that.

Week 14 recap

- Thanks, Aaron Rodgers, for not throwing ONE STINKING TD PASS in a critical week for fantasy. Ryan Grant (20 carries, 137 yards, 2 TDs) did all the heavy lifting for the Packers against the Bears.

- Peyton Manning, on the other hand, didn't disappoint (4 TDs) and could have been even better if not for 3 INTs.

- Speaking of stepping up, how about that Brandon Marshall? A PPR player's dream: an NFL-record 23 receptions, including 2 TDs, and 200 receiving yards. The surprising part? It was only the second time he's had double-digit receptions all year.

- Give Andre Johnson (193 yards, 2 TDs) a game ball, too.

- And while we're at it, a round of applause for Chris Johnson (186 total yards, 3 TDs), a one-man fantasy wrecking ball all season.

- Pat yourself on the back for drafting/picking up/starting Jamaal Charles (143 rushing yards, TD, 7 catches for 38 yards). And rejoice in next week's date with the Browns.

- Cedric Benson was surprisingly effective against Minnesota's defense (96 yards on 16 carries), and the purported timeshare with Larry Johnson (3 carries, 4 yards) never materialized. Benson is a safe play next Sunday at San Diego.

- Rickey Williams enjoyed his fourth 100-yard rushing game in the past 5 weeks and scored his 11th TD of the year.

- Who is Quinton Ganther? A former practice-squad RB from Utah who scored 2 TDs for Washington, that's who. Expect to see more of him in the coming weeks as the Redskins' RB roulette continues.

- Another 'Skin deserves a look, too: It's TE Fred Davis, who has 4 TDs in his past three games and who next faces the Giants, who had no answer for Philly's Brent Celek (5 catches, 64 yards, TD) this week.

- Speaking of answers, Randy Moss owes each of his fantasy owners one after that "performance" (1 catch, 16 yards, fumble, general disinterest in playing football on Sunday).

Week 11 recap

- Laurence Maroney (77 yards, 2 TDs) continues to be an every-week starter. Keep riding with him.

- Jason Avant now has 3 TDs in his past two games. This week's matchup with Washington is tough, but he could be a sneaky play as a flex/No. 3 WR.

- Week 11 Hot Pickup Bernard Scott had 21 carries for 119 yards filling in for Cedric Benson. Put in a claim for him if he's still available in your league, because he'd certainly be worth a look against Cleveland this week if Benson can't go.

- Tim Hightower's career-high 110 yards against St. Louis could be a little deceiving. His previous best also came against the Rams last year, and he's still splitting time with Beanie Wells, who scored a TD Sunday. Hightower may best be left on your bench until he meets St. Louis again in Week 16, right around the time of most fantasy Super Bowls.

- Who's the imposter in the No. 81 Bills jersey? Surely that wasn't Terrell Owens (9 catches, 197 yards, TD) - that's like 3 T.O. games rolled into one! It seems like new Buffalo coach Perry Fewell is making a concerted effort to get Owens the ball - wise choice - and you may actually want to getcha popcorn ready and put him in your lineup this week against Miami.

- Kevin Boss (2 TDs) has now scored four times in his past three games and can still be found on many waiver wires (I picked him up and started him in one league this past week). He doesn't get quite as many looks as the upper-echelon TEs but he's as good a bet as any to score in any given week.

- Is Adrian Peterson actually being hurt by Brett Favre throwing all these TDs? All Day didn't get into the end zone despite the Vikings putting up 35 points, and he was held to under 100 rushing yards for the seventh time this season. Of course you never bench Peterson though, I'm just thinking out loud here.

- Jamaal Charles was limited to 58 yards rushing on 17 carries against the tough Steelers, but he scored on a 97-yard kick return and caught a 2-yard TD pass. Good to see him finding ways to get involved, an encouraging sign heading into this weekend's game against San Diego.

Hot pickups: Week 11

FOUR STARS (Out of five)

RB JUSTIN FORSETT, Seahawks: The second-year back had a career day (123 rushing yards, 5 catches for 26 yards, TD) when Julius Jones exited Sunday with what turned out to be a broken rib. Unfortunately he faces a tough D in the Vikings this week, but he's someone to grab and hold onto down the stretch.

RB JASON SNELLING, Falcons: Another backup running back here - sensing a trend? With Michael Turner nursing a high ankle sprain - an injury that usually takes at least a few weeks to heal - Snelling steps into a starting role. Snelling totaled 93 rushing and receiving yards last week and scored a TD with Turner on the sidelines, and now he faces the Giants and Bucs (22 total rushing TDs allowed in 2009) in successive weeks.

RB BERNARD SCOTT, Bengals: Yup, another second-stringer. Cedric Benson hurt his hip against the Steelers, so in stepped Scott. Though his numbers weren't particularly impresive (13 carries for 33 yards, 1 catch for 21 yards), keep in mind he was facing the Steelers, and he did show off his skills on a 96-yard kick return for the game's only TD. Scott would be a great play this week against Oakland if benson can't go.

THREE STARS

WR NATE WASHINGTON, Titans: He's scored two TDs in the past three weeks since Vince Young took over at QB for Tennessee, and it's a decent bet he'll score another one on Monday night against Houston.

The sad saga of Larry Johnson

Remember when Larry Johnson was a fantasy star?

Remember the dude who ran for 1,750 yards and 20 TDs in 2005? And 1,789 and 17 TDs the next year?

That guy's gone forever.

LJ's injuries and an extreme number of carries (416 in 2006!) conspired to sap him of the quickness he once possessed, making him an incresingly ineffective runner in recent times. And his bad attitude and poor judgment sealed his fate, leading to his release from Kansas City.

Johnson got a second chance this week, signing with the Bengals as their fourth-string running back and an insurance policy for Cedric Benson, who's battling a hip injury. LJ, who turns 30 on Thursday, will essentially be a scout-team back for Cincinnati and isn't likely to see the field assuming Benson, the league's 6th-leading rusher, is healthy enough to suit up.

In other words, Johnson is no longer fantasy relevant.

I did have him ranked 27th among running backs this preseason, meaning he was worth drafting but didn't deserve to be one of your top two backs. Hopefully you're ready to move on - if you haven't already - and can send LJ packing. It was fun while it lasted.

Week 9 Recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while crafting a petition to the Bucs to wear their creamsicle uniforms every week ...


- Michael Turner topped 150 yards for the second straight game and extended his scoring streak to eight straight games (166, 2 TDs). He's looking like the top-3 back we thought he'd be.

- Turner's counterpart, Clinton Portis, was knocked out against Atlanta and is looking doubtful for what could have been a decent Week 10 matchup vs. Denver. Ladell Betts (15 carries, 70 yards, TD) wasn't bad in his stead and could soon be in a Hot Pickups blog post near you.

- Who needs Anquan Boldin? The disgruntled and disappointing Cardinals WR was scratched because of a nagging ankle injury and the field conditions in Chicago (and he was none too pleased with how he was informed of the benching) ... and Kurt Warner still threw 5 TDs.

- Do Matt Forte's 6 catches for 74 yards make up for his 5 carries for 33 yards? I say no.

- Of course Greg Olsen would catch 3 TDs after I benched him at the last minute Saturday night and subbed in Heath Miller (3 catches, 18 yards).

- I gotta give it to Cedric Benson for proving me wrong so far. He's exceeded all my expectations in Cincinnati (117 more yards and a TD vs. Baltimore) and has become a must-start, even Week 10 against Pittsburgh and beyond.

- Laurence Maroney got his biggest workload of the season (20 carries) and scored for the third straight week. Is he finally a dependable fantasy starter? I'd give him a serious look for this week's showdown with Indy.

- The Packers' James Jones now has 3 receiving TDs this year, or 1 more than teammate Greg Jennings. That ain't right.

- Do we have a new fantasy star in Bucs QB Josh Freeman (14-for-31, 205 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT)? Anything's possible, but let's see what happens after the rest of the league gets some actual film on him. Encouraging start, though.

- So Chris Chambers gets released by San Diego last week, picked up by the awful Chiefs this week, plays his first game for K.C. on Sunday and has his most productive day (70 yards, 2 TDs) since Week 2 of last year. Go figure.

- Twelve carries, 22 yards for LaDainian Tomlinson. How the mighty have fallen. Last time he played the Giants, in 2005, he busted them for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Those were the days.

- Alex Smith sure does love him some Vernon Davis (10 catches, 102 yards, both career highs).

Hot Pickups: Week 3

FIVE STARS (Out of five)

-WRs MARIO MANNINGHAM and STEVE SMITH, Giants: Who says the G-Men don't have a big-time receiver? In fact they have two, as these two proved by catching 10 balls and a TD apiece against the Cowboys. Manningham (above) is a better pickup in TD-heavy leagues, while Smith, the second coming of Amani Toomer, is a good choice for PPR formats. Both are worth a start against the Bucs.

FOUR STARS

- QB KEVIN KOLB, Eagles: A lot of good (391 yards, 2 TDs) and a lot of bad (3 INTs) in his first career start last week. The kid could replicate those numbers against the Chiefs D, assuming Donovan McNabb can't go again and Brian Westbrook is hampered by his ankle injury.

- TE BRENT CELEK, Eagles: He was already a good draft choice as your second TE with McNabb tossing him the ball. But Kolb liked him even more in Week 2 (8 catches, 104 yards) and should rely on him again vs. K.C.

- RB CEDRIC BENSON, Bengals: A feature back who runs for 141 yards has to be picked up, but I don't like him as a starter this week against Pittsburgh, and he's got several more tough matchups on the horizon.

TWO STARS

- WR MIKE SIMS-WALKER, Jaguars: Had an impressive 106 yards and a TD against Arizona, one week after registering 0 catches. Troy Williamson is out for the year, so he should have some more passes coming his way this week at Houston.

Week 2 recap

Plenty of monster (and not-so-monster) performances to dissect from Week 2:

-Hats off to Tennessee's Chris Johnson for looking very much like a top-3 running back after a lackluster Week 1: 16 carries, 197 yards, 2 TDs; 9 catches, 87 yards, TD. Just an awesome performance from a super-talented player.

-Another Johnson came up big Sunday, too: Houston's Andre Johnson, in the same game (10 catches, 149 yards, 2 TDs). I had the pleasure of starting both of them on the same team in one of my leagues. I won.

- Things aren't going as well for Houston's Steve Slaton, who now has 51 total rushing yards in two games and 0 TDs. The good news is after opening the year against two challenging defenses, things should get a little easier in the coming weeks (Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona).

- Frank Gore actually broke the 200-yard barrier (207 on just 16 carries) and scored twice. He also caught 5 passes for 39 yards for good measure and put the league on notice that the Niners' run game is no joke.

- Jake Delhomme wasn't great against Atlanta but he'll hold onto his starting job for the time being, which is good news for Steve Smith (8 catches, 131 yards) and his owners.

- Drew Brees halved last week's TD output but was still excellent (311 yards, 3 TDs), utilizing all his available weapons. And Mike Bell continues to run well (17 carries, 86 yards, TD) with Pierre Thomas on the shelf.

- Big effort from Cedric Benson for the Bengals (29 carries, 141 yards), but don't get too excited - he's got some brutal matchups on the horizon (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice and Chicago) in the next seven weeks.

- Aaron Rodgers hasn't lit it up the way I expected - two TDs in two games now. It doesn't help when you're sacked 5 times and your best WR, Greg Jennings, is held catchless. Here's hoping Rodgers and the Packers can do some damage against St. Louis.

- Buffalo's Fred Jackson is the real deal (163 rush yards, 25 receiving yards) and is a must-start next week against New Orleans. Does Marshawn Lynch HAVE to come back?

- Philip Rivers did just fine without a running game (436 yards, 2 TDs). Does LaDainian Tomlinson HAVE to come back?

Playoffs??!!?

Many apologies for my recent slacking on the blog updates. I spent last weekend in my home state of New Jersey with my fiancee for a combined bachelor party/wedding shower, plus a trip to NYC, so I only got to sneak in a little bit of football watching. I'll let you guess which was greater: total beers consumed by yours truly, or number of spatulas we received as gifts. But anyway, I'm totallly focused on this weekend's crucial playoff matchups, and I'd like to make it up to you with some advice for Week 15:

-Arlen Harris seems like a quick fix for anyone suffering a code-red emergency at RB, particularly those who had Kevin Jones. Facing the Green Bay Packers might make just about anyone a semi-attractive fantasy option. But think carefully about what you're doing: Do you really want your playoff fate riding on Arlen Harris?

-While I'm not a big fan of Harris this week, I like just about everybody else in the Lions-Packers showdown: Donald Driver, Ahman Green, Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, Brett Favre, heck, even Jon Kitna. On paper, this game should be a fantasy points bonanza.

-Speaking of which, Monday night's Colts-Bengals tilt shouldn't be half-bad either if it comes anywhere close to last season's shootout. Rudi Johnson owners are salivating, and rightfully so against that sorry run defense of Indy's. Cincinnati's pass D isn't that much better, so Peyton Manning and Co. seem in line for their usual aerial success. With Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokley out, Bryan Fletcher, Ben Utecht or even Ricky Proehl (yup, he's back!) might get in on the action, but you know none of those guys is a sure thing. As for the Bengals, the studs should get their numbers - even Chris Henry, assuming he's not incarcerated in the next few days.

-I like Cedric Benson a lot against the defense formerly known as the Buccaneers. Benson was already seeing a steady increase in carries before Thomas Jones tweaked his ankle. Jones is listed as questionable.

-If you really need help, give Justin Fargas a try. He's auditioning for a starting role and a new contract in 2007, and while he's been mediocre so far since with the Raiders, the Rams' run defense might offer the big breakthrough he's been looking for.

-Flash-in-the-pan Saints FB Mike Karney is not the solution, three TDs be damned. Didn't the Marcel Shipp saga teach you anything? Karney goes back to being Deuce McAllister's personal plow this week. Stick with the rest of the Saints' skill players instead - except Joe Horn, who's shut down for the rest of the regular season.

-How fun is Sunday night's LT vs. LJ matchup going to be for fantasy players? This could actually be the first time where the networks' hyping of individual players actually means more than the game itself. Between the Chiefs-Chargers on Sunday and the Colts-Bengals on Monday night, there could be some record ratings in store thanks to the fantasy playoffs. Enjoy, and good luck.