8/27 Bust of the Day: Chad Ochocinco

I'm torn over everybody's favorite reality star. On one hand, it's almost hard to take him seriously as a football player because of all the Twittering and self-promoting off the field and silliness on it. He's also 32 years old and appears to be past his prime, when he was catching 90-plus passes a year with regularity.

On the other hand, Ocho did have 72 receptions, 1,047 yards and 9 TDs in 2009, numbers that are nothing to sniff at and which represented a bounce-back year for him. The flip side is that 2008 was a real clunker - 53 catches, 540 yards (10.2 yards a reception) and  just 4 TDs.

So what can we expect this year? Ocho's still the Bengals' No. 1 option, but his supporting cast is much improved with the additions of Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant and rookie Jordan Shipley. Can QB Carson Palmer keep them all happy? Will Palmer's arm hold up all year? Or will Cincinnati lean on workhorse back Cedric Benson?

My gut tells me Ochocinco still has some life left in him, his rapport with Palmer will still be there, and the addition of T.O., while a potential headache-inducer, will also loosen up some coverages. I think he'll have fantasy value. But I believe people will overpay for him on draft day because of his name and past reputation alone. He's being selected, on average, as the 15th WR off the board in ESPN leagues right now, which sounds OK, but I wouldn't go any higher than that. I could see younger wideouts like Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon or Michael Crabtree outperforming him, or at least equaling his best-case-scenario stats, while coming at a lower price.

Ochocinco's a low-end No. 2 for me, and a risky one at that.

Start 'Em: Week 14

- RB JAMAAL CHARLES vs. Buffalo: Did you realize the Bills have allowed opposing running backs to run for 100 yards or score a TD in every game this year? I'm optimistic Charles can do both this week. He's scored in four straight weeks, and the trend should continue.

- RB RYAN GRANT at Chicago: Yeah, RG's last game was disappointing (41 yards on 16 carries), but the Ravens defense is actually still good. Chicago's is living off its reputation from a few years ago and is pretty ghastly nowadays. Grant had 61 yards and a TD against them in Week 1 and should easily duplicate, if not better, those numbers here.

- WR KENNY BRITT vs. St. Louis: The kid from Rutgerse has scored a TD in each of his past three games. Bet he does it again this week against a middle-of-the-road Rams secondary that just lost its best player, safety Oshiomogho Atogwe, for the season.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Alex Smith threw for a season-high 310 yards and two more TDs in a win over the Jaguars.

- Knowshon Moreno racked up 86 yards and, more importantly, scored twice against K.C.

- Pierre Garcon caught 6 passes for a season-high (and career-high) 136 yards. Boo yah.

Photo by The Associated Press

Start 'Em: Week 13

- QB ALEX SMITH at Seattle: The kid's thrown for 459 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT in his past two games and faces the Seahawks' 25th-ranked passing D. If I'm fed up with my QB (Jay Cutler, Eli Manning ...) Smith is the guy I'm going to.

- RB KNOWSHON MORENO at Kansas City: Denver's rookie RB has topped 80 yards rushing in each of his past three games, and the Chiefs aren't exactly known as great run-stoppers.

- WR PIERRE GARCON vs. Tennessee: Indy's second-year receiver has scored a TD or topped 100 yards in each of his past three games, and the Titans aren't exactly known as great pass-defenders.

LAST WEEK'S PICKS

- Matt Hasselbeck was a bomb (14-for-25, 102 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) as RB Justin Forsett did all the heavy lifting. My apologies.

- Jason Snelling got only 4 carries for 8 yards as the Falcons decided to go with an ineffective Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood for the majority of the rushing attempts.

- Chris Chambers caught 7 passes for 70 yards and a TD, solidifying his status as the Chiefs' No. 1 receiver.

Hot Pickups: Week 5

FIVE STARS (Out of five)

- RB RASHARD MENDENHALL, Steelers: Mendenhall ignited a running back controversy in Steel Town by outperforming starter Willie Parker in his absence on Sunday. Even if Parker (toe) returns to the lineup, the Steelers are facing the Lions and Browns in successive weeks, and Mendenhall would still likely warrant a start.


FOUR STARS

- RB JEROME HARRISON, Browns: Jamal Lewis (hamstring) is breaking down before our eyes. James Davis (shoulder) is out for the season. Harrison ran for 129 yards Sunday. This week he faces the Bills, who just gashed them for 250 yards on the ground. Need we say more?

- TE VERNON DAVIS, 49ers: The former malcontent and fantasy bust is now happy, healthy, more mature and scoring TDs left and right - two in the past three weeks. Get him while you still can.

- WR AUSTIN COLLIE, Colts: No, that's not a designer breed of dog, but rather an excellent WR option if your starter's on a bye. Collie (along with Pierre Garcon) is doing his best to replace Anthony Gonzalez, catching a season-high 6 passes, including one for a TD, against Seattle. This week he's up against the Tennessee secondary, which hasn't stopped anyone.


THREE STARS

- QB DAVID GARRARD, Jaguars: He's been alternating good and bad weeks, stat-wise, so far this season, and he's not a terrible option this week against a Seahawks secondary that just got lit up by Peyton Manning.

Hot Pickups: Week 4

FIVE STARS (Out of five):

- RB GLEN COFFEE, 49ers: Frank Gore's understudy got rave reviews in Niners training camp. Now the rookie gets a starting gig with Gore out for the next three weeks with an ankle injury. It doesn't seem like San Fran will hesitate to lean on Coffee - he got 25 carries (for 54 yards) in relief of Gore last week against the run-tough Vikings. Now he gets a crack at the run-soft Rams D on Sunday.


FOUR STARS:

- WR KEVIN WALTER, Texans: Some owner may have lost patience with Walter after he missed Weeks 1 and 2 with a hamstring injury and dropped him. He made them look really bad with a 7-catch, 96-yard, 1-TD effort in Week 3. He's back, and he should be on your team and in your lineup as a No. 2/3 WR or flex player against the Raiders this week.


THREE STARS:

- RB FRED TAYLOR, Patriots: His performance last Sunday (21 carries, 105 yards, TD) will automatically stamp him as a hot pickup in any league in which he's not already owned. There will probably be more of these types of performances to come, too. But be forewarned: He's facing the Ravens this week, and there's a decent chance Laurence Maroney or Sammy Morris or Kevin Faulk could lead the Pats in rushing on any given week.

- WR PIERRE GARCON, Colts: The dude with the cool name (wish I knew how to type that little accent thing under the C in his last name!) has now scored a TD in two straight weeks and seems to be rounding into a big-play threat for Peyton Manning in Anthony Gonzalez's absence. And that means he belongs on a fantasy roster.


TWO STARS:

QB CHAD HENNE, Dolphins: Henne's the man in Miami now that Chad Pennington is out for the season. Does that mean he should be picked up? I'd take a wait-and-see approach for now - chances are the Fins will lean heavily on Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown with a little bit of Pat White mixed in.

Week 3 Recap

Random fantasy thoughts while watching the Giants flat out dominate the Bucs on Sunday at Tampa's Raymond James Stadium ...


- Steve Smith (7 catches, 63 yards, TD) is Eli Manning's go-to receiver, no doubt about it. He's a must-own in all leagues at this point.

- Josh Johnson is the new Bucs starting QB, replacing Byron Leftwich. He's about the only Buc who showed a pulse on Sunday and deserves the start against Washington. But I want him nowhere near my fantasy team right now.

-Frank Gore's ankle injury is a huge letdown a week after his 200-yard game. Expect him to be out at least this week, and possibly two more after that (including a bye in Week 6). Preseason standout Glen Coffee will be a good waiver pickup this week and a sneaky play against the Rams next Sunday.

- Welcome to fantasy relevance, Vernon Davis (7 catches, 96 yards, TD). We've been waiting for you, man.

- Percy Harvin (101-yard kickoff return for a TD) continues to make an impact every week.

- Do the Patriots finally have a clear No. 1 tailback in Fred Taylor (21 carries, 105 yards, TD)? Maybe. Too bad he's got to face Baltimore next week, and then the Pats will probably reshuffle the whole rotation after that.

- Donovan McNabb has to be champing at the bit seeing the damage Kevin Kolb (327 yards, 2 TDs Sunday) is doing and looking forward to a possible Week 5 return against the Bucs after the Eagles' bye.

- Willis McGahee (7 carries, 67 yards, 2 TDs) apparently can't be stopped, but Ray Rice (11 carries, 48 yards, TD) is still getting the most work in the Ravens backfield. Le'Ron McClain (2 carries, 7 yards) is pretty much out of the picture at this point.

- Welcome, Pierre Thomas (14 carries, 126 yards, 2 TDs - all in the second half). It's now safe to use him, in case you were wondering.

- Speaking of Pierres, WR Pierre Garcon now has a place in the Colts lineup and should have a place on your roster after scoring for the second straight week.