Grading my 2009 busts

QB KURT WARNER, CARDINALS

The veteran didn't have as much of a dropoff as I feared - he missed just one game due to injury - but his numbers did plummet. He threw for 26 TDs, down from 30 a year ago, but the big killer was his 3,753 passing yards, nearly 1,000 fewer than 2008. I said Warner wouldn't be a top-5 QB as many predicted, and that Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers would be better picks at QB. Turns out several others would have been better picks, too - Warner finished outside the top 10 among fantasy QBs. GRADE: A+

WR PERCY HARVIN, VIKINGS

I tried to argue that Harvin wouldn't be consistent this season and therefore would be overrated as a No. 3 fantasy WR. In many ways, that was true - the rookie went through the entire month of October without doing much of anything, then tailed off again in late December while battling a headache problem. But his final stats - 790 receiving yards, 6 TDs, plus two return TDs - were helpful to anyone who used him at the right times, and he outperformed most of the other guys I liked better as No. 3s. GRADE: C+

RB LaDAINIAN TOMLINSON, CHARGERS

I was pretty much right on the money on this one. Though LT2 did end up with 12 rushing TDs - one more than last year - his yardage totals plummeted from 1,110 to 730 (rushing) and 426 to 124 (receiving). In fact, he never even posted a 100-yard-rushing game. I cautioned that he'd be taken in the first round of many leagues based on reputation alone, but he actually ended up barely finishing among the top 10 RBs in fantasy scoring. GRADE: A+

WR ANTONIO BRYANT, BUCCANEERS

I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Bryant as a No. 2 WR this year, as some suggested, and I wasn't even considering the fact Byron Leftwich wouldn't even make it three weeks as the Bucs' starting QB, or that Tampa Bay would be quite so awful. But all that contributed to Bryant's 600-yard, 4-TD season. GRADE: A+

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, PANTHERS

I warned that Williams, coming off an out-of-this-world 2008 fantasy season, was bound to disappoint if you counted on a repeat. He ended up with 400 fewer rushing yards and less than half as many TDs as the year before. I reasoned that fellow Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart would siphon off a lot of Williams' stats, and Stewart actually ended up with more yards and more TDs than Williams, who played only 13 games. GRADE: A

Week 15 recap

Some random fantasy thoughts while savoring my first playoff victory in a few years (yes!) ...

- Just when we thought Jerome Harrison had been overtaken by Chris Jennings in the pecking order of Browns running backs, Harrison goes and busts out one of the greatest rushing performances the game's ever seen - 34 carries, 286 yards, 3 TDs against Kansas City. The shame of it is the chances of anyone actually starting Harrison in Week 15 are slim to none (let me know if you did). Harrison becomes perhaps the most unlikely must-start we've ever seen this week against Oakland. You'll also want Cedric Benson (and maybe even Larry Johnson as a flex) in your lineup against a downtrodden Chiefs D.

- DeAngelo Williams' early-game ankle injury was a killer, especially because Jonathan Stewart was able to rack up 109 yards and a TD on the ground against a tough Vikings D. We may have seen the last of Williams for this year, which at least would clear the way for Stewart

- Thank you, Roy Williams for the 1 catch and 14 yards in a critical week. Miles Austin was targeted a whopping 10 times more than our boy Roy.

- Hopefully you weren't scared off by all the "Randy Moss is a quitter" talk and benefited from his 5 catches, 70 yards and a TD on Sunday. The next two weeks against Jacksonville and Houston are looking very appealing for Mr. Moss.

- Beanie Wells is coming into his own at just the right time. He had his best day as a pro (110 yards, TD), and I'm expecting an encore against St. Louis.

- No TDs for Chris Johnson - what's up with that??? It's gotten to the point that 159 total yards is just not enough from this guy.

- Vincent Jackson picked the perfect time to shine (108 yards, 2 TDs) - the first time he's scored since Week 9. He could do some more damage on Christmas night against a Titans secondary that was getting torched with regularity not that long ago.

- Steven Jackson continued playing hurt, leading the team in rushing (82 yards) and receiving (41 yards), but I fear it's going to catch up to him against a Cardinals D that's typically pretty good at bottling up the run. It doesn't help that the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of.

- It will be tempting to start Michael Turner against the Bills' porous defense, but how can you insert him in your lineup in good conscience after Sunday's 1-carry, 7-yard disaster against the Jets?

- The Raiders decided to hand the ball off to Michael Bush 18 times on Sunday against Denver, and he rewarded them with 133 yards and a TD. That's surprising, not because Bush doesn't have the talent (he does), but because he had gotten only 22 carries in the past 5 games combined. Bush could repeat that feat or better it against the Browns if he gets a similar workload.

- DeSean Jackson continued his torrid play (6 catches, 140 yards, TD) and should be a staple of fantasy lineups at this point.

- That's the Aaron Rodgers we know and love (26-for-48, 383 yards, 3 TDs). Now do it again this week against the Seahawks, buddy.

- Speaking of the Seahawks, John Carlson caught his second TD in as many games and could do it again this week vs. Green Bay, if you trust a guy whose QB is Matt Hasselbeck (1 TD, 4 INTs, 45.2 passer rating Sunday).

- And speaking of tight ends, Todd Heap caught two TDs, his first trips to the end zone since Week 2. He's still a part of the Ravens' passing attack, so don't forget about him in Week 16.

Matt Forte is killing me

Matt Forte is killing me.

I had this guy pegged as my No. 3 overall pick entering this season, right behind Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner. Ahead of Chris Johnson. Ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew. Ahead of Steven Jackson. Ahead of DeAngelo Williams.

How's that looking? Check this out:

PLAYER, YARDS, TDs

Adrian Peterson, 618, 7
Chris Johnson, 596, 2
Steven Jackson, 501, 0
Maurice Jones-Drew, 468, 8
DeAngelo Williams, 372, 4
Matt Forte, 294, 1

In other words, Forte's sucked.

This is a guy who rushed for 1,238 yards last year and 8 TDs. He also caught 63 balls for 477 yards and 4 more scores.

This year, he's caught only 18 balls, none for TDs.

You figured with strong-armed Jay Cutler in town, the Bears might rely a little less on the running game this year. I'll buy that. But didn't you figure Forte might be even more involved in the passing game? And even when they've run the ball with him, he hasn't been very effective - see his two fumbles on the goal line Sunday night against Atlanta.

Blame some of Forte's struggles on the Bears' schedule, which isn't getting any easier in the coming weeks. Five of Chicago's next six opponents rank in the upper-half of the league in run defense. We can only hope the Bears make a sustained effort to run the ball and Forte keeps getting carries and can somehow regain last year's form.

Photo by The Associated Press

8/28 Bust of the Day: DeAngelo Williams

RB DeANGELO WILLIAMS, CAROLINA PANTHERS

Can the unquestioned 2008 Fantasy MVP possibly be a bust in 2009? Depends on how you define bust ...



In my eyes, a bust is any player who doesn't live up to common expectations set for him, and by that criteria, Williams is bound to be one. The man scored 20 total TDs last year, after being an afterthought in most drafts and no better than a third RB on most teams to start the year. This season, he'll cost you a small fortune in an auction or a first-round pick in a regular draft. And if you're paying that kind of price, you're expecting Williams to come close to last year's numbers.

But can he? Remember, Williams' stats were padded just a bit by two 4-TD games last year, plus two games in which he rushed for more than 170 yards. He also cracked the 100-yard mark only once in his first seven games last year - which makes his second-half production that much more remarkable.

The problem with Williams is his backup, Jonathan Stewart, who is better-suited for goal-line duty and who will be part of a clear timeshare as soon as his nagging Achilles' injury heals. The Panthers should again boast the most run-heavy offense in the league, which means there will be plenty of carries for both Williams and Stewart. But frankly, I feel like Williams got a little lucky last year, and I believe his stats are bound to level off a little bit as Stewart takes on more respnosibility. I wouldn't be shocked to see Williams' TD total get cut in half this year and his yardage total dip down toward the 1,200- to 1,300-yard range. Those are impressive numbers, no doubt, but there are several other backs capable of duplicating them while not surrendering that many carries to a backup.

I penciled in Williams at No. 8 on my RB rankings, which makes him a late first-round/early second-round choice. Taking him any higher may leave you a bit disappointed if he's simply good and not great in 2009.

Photo by The Associated Press

Mock draft podcast

I took part in a mock draft last week with some of my co-workers at the Bradenton Herald as part of our 2009 fantasy football preview, and we recorded it in a podcast for your listening pleasure:



You can spend hours reading magazines and making lists as you prepare for your season, but it's not easy to predict how others in your league will approach the draft and what strategies will unfold. Hopefully our podcast, featuring myself and five other self-proclaimed fantasy nuts, will offer some insight into how the first round might unfold. Some interesting tidbits we saw in our mock draft: Two QBs and two WRs made the top 10 and LaDainian Tomlinson and DeAngelo Williams didn't.

2009 fantasy football awards

As we flip the calendar to 2009, let us reflect on the fantasy season that was. Touchdowns were scored, championships were won and lost, and grown men and women spent the past four months arguing and obsessing over imaginary football teams.

Isn’t fantasy great?

Here are some players who deserve special recognition before we close the book on the 2008 fantasy football season:

MVP AWARD
Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner rushed for more yards, but DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers ran for a league-high 18 TDs and had some truly monster games down the stretch when we needed him most. And he wasn’t drafted in most leagues until at least the fourth round!

BUST OF THE YEAR AWARD
Maybe it’s unfair, Tom Brady gets the dishonor suffering a devastating knee injury in Week 1. If you made Brady your first pick, here’s what you got out of him: seven completions, 76 yards, zero TDs and a season of what ifs.

2008 ALL FANTASY TEAM
QB: Drew Brees; RB1: DeAngelo Williams; RB2: Michael Turner; WR1: Anquan Boldin; WR2: Larry Fitzgerald; TE: Tony Gonzalez; K: Stephen Gostkowski; DEF: Baltimore Ravens.

PICKUP OF THE YEAR AWARD

Matt Cassel’s own family members wouldn’t have drafted him this year, but the former unknown finished the season as a top-10 fantasy QB filling in for Brady.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Matt Forte and Steve Slaton share the honors after both rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs in their debut seasons.

FUTURE FANTASY STUD AWARD
Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree could be a fantasy No. 2 by the end of 2009, provided he winds up in the right offense with the right QB. Oakland Raiders, you’re on the clock.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD
Thomas Jones rushed for 13 TDs for the New York Jets — almost doubling his total from the previous two seasons.

MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER AWARD
Let’s say your team has a comfortable lead, but your opponent has one player left in the Monday night game. Who do you fear most? For me it’s Brian Westbrook, a versatile little son-of-a-gun who’s capable of a four-TD effort on any given day. And I should know: I went head-to-head with a Westbrook owner twice in one league this season, and the dude scored SEVEN TDs against me in two games.

ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD
Brady Quinn enjoyed a promising debut as an NFL starter Nov. 9 against Denver, throwing for 239 yards and two TDs. Then he failed to find the end zone in the next two games before suffering a season-ending injury.

BEST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I was high on Kevin Smith and Roddy White as preseason sleepers; I jumped on the bandwagons of Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Tim Hightower early; I wasn’t buying the Darren McFadden or David Garrard hype; I predicted a huge bounce-back by Donovan McNabb (four TDs) in Week 13 against Arizona when everyone said he was done.

WORST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I believed Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards could form the nucleus of a fantasy champion; I picked Cincinnati Bengals tight end Ben Utecht (who?) as one of my top sleepers; I didn’t have Steve Slaton ranked in my top 50 preseason running backs.

RISING STOCK
Kevin Smith, Tyler Thigpen, Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson.

FALLING STOCK
Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Tony Romo, Reggie Bush, Braylon Edwards, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens.

SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2009
1. Adrian Peterson; 2. Michael Turner; 3. Drew Brees; 4. Matt Forte; 5. Chris Johnson; 6. Brian Westbrook; 7. DeAngelo Williams; 8. Randy Moss; 9. Brandon Jacobs; 10. LaDainian Tomlinson

Your guide to success in important Week 14

Forget about putting up the Christmas lights this weekend and tell your significant other you’re taking a pass on that shopping trip.

This is a crucial week in fantasy football, either the regular season finale or the opening of the playoffs. We can’t be bothered with trivial stuff like holiday preparations, household chores and human interaction. It’s Week 14! Enough nonsense . . . we’ve got more important things to think about, like who to start and who to sit this week.

START ’EM

g RB Adrian Peterson at Detroit: The biggest no-brainer in the history of no-brainers.

g RB Larry Johnson at Denver: He torched the Broncos for 198 yards and two TDs in Week 4.

g RB DeAngelo Williams vs. Tampa Bay: I make it a point to never sit a running back coming off a four-TD game. Call me crazy.

g RB Brian Westbrook at New York Giants: See above.

g QB Matt Cassel at Seattle: Welcome back to reality, son. Now go out there and carve up that Seahawks “secondary.”

g QB Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis: If he doesn’t throw for at least 300 yards and two TDs, I’ll buy you a drink.

g WR Bernard Berrian at Detroit: His best fantasy output of the season was against — you guessed it — the Lions in Week 6 (five catches, 131 yards, TD).

g WR Lance Moore vs. Atlanta: Has caught six TDs in his past five games and should continue the trend.

g WR Torry Holt at Arizona: He has only two TD receptions this year, but one came against the generous Cardinals pass defense in Week 9.

SIT ’EM

g RB Jamal Lewis at Tennessee: I’m no defensive coordinator, but do you think the Titans might stack the box this week with Ken Dorsey playing QB for Cleveland?

g RB Clinton Portis at Baltimore: It pains me to say this because I know he’s carried you (and Washington) all year. But Portis is banged-up, coming off his worst game of the year (22 yards) and facing the Ravens. That’s three strikes.

g RB Marion Barber at Pittsburgh: Uncertainty about his toe injury and the Steelers’ run defense make me very apprehensive this week.

g RB Willis McGahee vs. Washington: How can you start a guy who suited up the week before but had no carries?

g QB Tony Romo at Pittsburgh: Games against San Francisco and Seattle were walks in the park, but did you see what the Steelers did to poor Cassel last week? Factor in the prospect of no Barber in the backfield and bad weather in the Steel City, and I’m considering other options.

g QB Jake Delhomme vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs are simply too tough. There are at least 20 other quarterbacks with more upside this week.

g WR Braylon Edwards at Tennessee: No way am I putting my playoff chances in this guy’s hands. Or to be more accurate, letting them bounce off this guy’s fingertips.

g WR Chad Johnson at Indianapolis: There’s a big difference between doing funny things in the end zone and having an absolute joke of a season. I bet I could close my eyes, pick up a random receiver off the waiver wire and get more production out of him this week than Ocho Cinco.

g WR Roy Williams at Pittsburgh: This guy’s stock has plummeted more than — well, it’s just as bad as all the stocks out there in real life, I guess. But there’s no reason to start him in any fantasy league this week.

Carolina Panthers did us a favor

If there's one aspect of fantasy football that really bugs me, it's the running back-by-committee.

Nothing drives me crazier on draft day or when it's time to set my lineup than having to figure out which one of a team's two or three or four RBs is going to be most productive. One of the biggest offenders the past two years has been the Carolina Panthers, with their timeshare duo of DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. As if it weren't already hard enough to tell the two apart, the Panthers were constantly dividing up the carries in haphazard fashion, which ultimately meant it wasn't worth the hassle owning either one of them.

Well, that all changed Thursday when the Panthers released Foster. The team opted to keep the younger, more explosive Williams (5.0 yards a carry last year to Foster's 3.5), who automatically becomes a No. 2 fantasy back - assuming he's the Panthers' unquestioned starter. This makes things a heck of a lot easier for fantasy purposes. No more flipping a coin when thinking about drafting one of them or watching in horror as one of them gets 20 carries and the other eight.

Of course, Carolina could throw us all for a loop and go draft or sign another RB who will share time with Williams, which leaves us back at square one. Maybe there's a nondescript guy out there named DeJuan Jones or something who they can pick up and give half the carries to - that'd be just our luck.

WEEK 5 - Sunday Recap

-The Rams' Jeff Wilkins continues his bid as fantasy's top kicker, booting three straight in Sunday's win over Green Bay. He's got competition from Chicago's Robbie Gould, who's hit a remarkable 17 straight to begin the season.

-Larry Johnson put together another big day (36 rushing yards, 106 receiving yards and a TD), but there was a scare when he was pulled down by the facemask at the end of a 78-yard run. Word is he suffered a neck strain and eventually looked OK, but keep an eye on him.

-Matt Leinart showed what he can do in his first pro start, hitting two early TD passes before making some rookie mistakes. Again, don't even think about starting him next week against Chicago, but he could be worth plugging in Weeks 7 and 8 (Oakland, Green Bay).

-Good to see Reggie Bush get his first pro touchdown. Too bad it was on a punt return - unless you've got the Saints defense, that is.

-Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald went down with what appears to be a serious hamstring injury. You'd be adviced to grab teammate Bryant Johnson, who led Arizona with 82 receiving yards Sunday.

-The Redskins' offense really came up lame against what had been a questionable Giants defense. Mark Brunell barely managed 100 passing yards, which meant Santana Moss' three-TD game of a week ago became a distant memory. The G-Men held Clinton Portis (a.k.a. Dolemite Jenkins) to just 78 yards on the ground, and the Skins managed only a field goal. They'll have better days - like Week 6 against Tennessee, perhaps.

-Michael Robinson got the goal-line carries for San Francisco as expected, but he couldn't hit paydirt three straight times. Starter Frank Gore had a career-high 134 yards on the ground against Oakland and didn't fumble for the first time this season. It's unclear if M-Rob blew his chance, so I can't recommend putting him in your lineup next week against San Diego, but he's worth hanging on to if you can spare the roster spot.

-Andrew Walter hit Randy Moss for a TD for the second straight game, but Walter ended up getting pulled for Marques Tuiasosopo in Oakland's loss to San Fran. Moss also dropped a Walter pass in the end zone and was seen laughing on the sidelines a few plays later. LaMont Jordan managed only 71 yards on the ground, dropped a lateral and didn't even attempt to recover it as the Niners' Melvin Oliver ran it in for a score. If these guys don't even care, why should you? Look elsewhere.

-Bruce Gradkowski wasn't half bad against the Saints (two TDs, no INTs) in his starting debut, and he actually made the Bucs offense produce. Gradkowski might be an OK spot starter from here on out, and Jon Gruden is enamored with him, but we don't have much of a sample size to go on. I'd be more excited about Joey Galloway, Cadillac Williams and even talented TE Alex Smith finally showing some signs of life under Gradkowski's guidance.

-The Chargers finally took the shackles off Philip Rivers (two TDs), who looked pretty good against a supposedly tough Steelers defense. Unfortunately, LaDainian Tomlinson didn't have one of his patented monster games (70 total yards). Don't drop him, though.

-The early front-runner for Fantasy MVP: Donovan McNabb. He's been a touchdown machine this year (one rushing, two passing in Week 5) and surprisingly getting it done with guys like Reggie Brown and Hank Baskett catching passes ... with most of the so-called "stud" RBs not being so studly this season and the QB ranks constantly in flux, McNabb is separating himself from the pack.

-Brian Westbrook is driving owners batty this year. We knew he was an injury risk entering the season, but this inflammation business in his knee is really getting old. It seems like it's going to be a constant problem this season, which means a lot of the dreaded "game-time decision" tags attached to his name for the foreseeable future. There are even rumors he could need surgery at the end of the year - or sooner. The guy could easily be a top-10 back if he were a little more reliable, but you might want to have a backup plan in place if you don't already.

-Speaking of injured RBs, Ahman Green was a late scratch for the second straight week with sore hammies. And if you started backup Vernand Morency in a pinch, you got burned when Morency fumbled twice in the first quarter against St. Louis. Third-stringer Noah Herron of Northwestern capitalized, gaining 106 yards and a TD.

-Daunte Culpepper was a surprise scratch as the Dolphins went with Joey Harrington at QB. Joey Ballgame didn't fare much better (no TDs, two INTs), and the stocks of Ronnie Brown (a TD but only 39 rushing yards) and Chris Chambers (47 total yards) continue to plummet. Cut Culpepper if you haven't already, and steer clear of Harrington.

-The Bears looked damn impressive on both sides of the ball in destroying the Bills. Too bad Thomas Jones was the workhorse again (22 carries, 109 yards) but Cedric Benson got two cheap TDs from the 1-yard line. You've gotta think about starting Rex Grossman and/or Bernard Berrian in matchups against Arizona, San Francisco and Miami in three of the next four weeks.

-The Jaguars' offense absolutely went off on the Jets, with Byron Leftwich (two TDs), Fred Taylor (111 yards, TD), Maurice Jones-Drew (two TDs) and Reggie Williams (TD) all getting in on the action. You'll want your Jags skill players in the lineup with two games against Houston and one against Tennessee coming up over the next four weeks.

-The only small positive for the J-E-T-S was rookie Leon Washington, who ran for 101 yards on 23 carries and further mucked up New York's RB situation. Kevin Barlow, previously the main guy, managed -1 yard on four carries. Who knows what next week will bring, but it's become clear Derrick Blaylock (zero carries) and Cedric Houston (shoulder injury) are out of the mix.

-The Titans' Chris Brown was healthy but inactive in Week 5, which means you can safely dump him (if you haven't already) in all but the deepest of leagues. Travis Henry busted out a 123-yard game against the Colts, while rookie LenDale White had eight carries for 48 yards.

-As for the Colts' RB platoon of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai: Rhodes got the edge in touches (25 to 15) and total yards (110 to 77) this week. Obviously both are productive, but neither are consistent options, especially against a tough stretch of opponents (Washington, Denver, New England, Dallas, Philly) after a Week 6 bye.

-DeAngelo Williams lost out on a big day when he suffered a sprained ankle on his first carry of the game against Cleveland. DeShaun Foster owners everywhere rejoiced ... but then realized Carolina faces Baltimore next week.

-Rough game for Lions skill players: Roy Williams left with a shoulder stinger after making just one catch, Kevin Jones left with a concussion after 10 carries for eight yards, and Jon Kitna had three INTs and a costly fumble that was returned for a Minnesota touchdown. And if you thought Mike Williams might finally have an opportunity to do something, he dropped the only pass thrown to him and was promptly benched. I wouldn't touch any of these guys next week, even if they're healthy, against a Buffalo defense that just got embarrassed by the Bears.