8/22 Sleeper of the Day: Aaron Hernandez

TE AARON HERNANDEZ, Patriots

One of Tim Tebow's favorite targets in college, Hernandez now has the chance to be Tom Brady's boy in New England. The 2010 fourth-rounder won the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end in his junior season for the Gators and offers the Pats a much-needed offensive threat at the position.

Now, anyone who's had a New England player not named Brady or Randy Moss on their fantasy squad in the past few seasons can tell you the team's offensive philosophy can be maddening. They alter their gameplans so much from week to week and utilize such a variety of players in many different ways that it's hard to see any kind of consistency. Consider this year's stable of TEs: Hernandez, fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski and former fantasy star Alge Crumpler have lined up all over the field this preseason for the Pats (split out wide or in the slot as receivers; as wing backs and fullbacks; plus at the traditional TE spot) and will all be vying for catches this year.

For those reasons, none of those guys is going to be a weekly fantasy contributor you can count on in 2010, but I'd be willing to bet they all have their moments. And I bet Hernandez, the most physically gifted receiver of the three, will have the most moments that are fantasy relevant. He already has seven catches for 72 yards and a TD through two preseason games and has started both contests. I predict a few big games out of the rookie when the matchups dictate, and he could be a sneaky No. 2 TE pick at the end of 12-team drafts. At the very least he'll be someone to watch on the waiver wire.


Photo by The Associated Press

2010 QB Rankings

A surprise at the top: Aaron Rodgers is the No. 1 QB in my preseason rankings.

Drew Brees got more pub last year - winning a Super Bowl will do that - but it was actually Rodgers who had more pass attempts and more yards than the Saints star. The Other A-Rod threw 30 TDs, four fewer than Brees, but he also rushed for 5 TDs to Brees' 2, and he tossed four fewer INTs than New Orleans' leader.

Rodgers isn't sneaking up on anyone like last year, and he certainly won't come as cheaply in your fantasy draft. But he's younger than Brees, is a more dangerous rusher and has his full complement of weapons back this year. Plus, he put up last year's excellent numbers despite taking a league-high 50 sacks, a number that's sure to drop with the healthy returns of veteran tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton and the addition of first-rounder Bryan Bulaga.

Some other notes:

Tom Brady falls out of the top 5, mostly because I like some of the league's younger QBs better. Brady's still a bona fide fantasy starter, but I just can't pencil him into the top 3 like I used to anymore.

Brett Favre's value is tough to predict, but it's all about his health, I have to believe that ankle will be healed by Week 1 since he's already joined Vikings camp. Last year's miraculous numbers will be hard to duplicate, but he should still be a top-10 guy if he can last through the season.

I put Kevin Kolb just outside the top-10, which means he's not a starter in your typical 10-team league, but it would not shock me to see him finish there.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
4. Matt Schaub
5. Tony Romo
6. Tom Brady
7. Philip Rivers
8. Brett Favre
9. Jay Cutler
10. Joe Flacco
11. Kevin Kolb
12. Eli Manning
13. Matt Ryan
14. Donovan McNabb
15. Ben Roethlisberger
16. Matthew Stafford
17. Chad Henne
18. Carson Palmer
19. Vince Young
20. Matt Cassel
21. Matt Leinart
22. David Garrard
23. Alex Smith
24. Jason Campbell
25. Mark Sanchez
26. Josh Freeman
27. Kyle Orton
28. Matt Hasselbeck
29. Matt Moore
30. Trent Edwards
31. Michael Vick
32. Sam Bradford
33. Charlie Whitehurst
34. Jake Delhomme
35. Seneca Wallace
36. Byron Leftwich
37. Tavaris Jackson
38. Brady Quinn
39. Derek Anderson
40. Ryan Fitzpatrick

8/15 Bust of the Day: Tom Brady

QB TOM BRADY, Patriots




Before you flip out and call me a crazy Brady hater (or worse), please read this blog carefully. I'm not predicting Tom Terrific's days as a fantasy force are over. I'm not saying he's washed up or not worth drafting. I'm simply stating my belief that Brady will fail to deliver on the general consensus of expectations for him this year, which is how I define a bust.

But first, the positives: Brady's currently playing for a new contract, as is his top receiver, the always dangerous Randy Moss. Standout slot man Wes Welker is progressing nicely from reconstructive knee surgery. The Pats still don't have a go-to running back, which means plenty of pass attempts. And Brady's more than a year removed from a devastating knee injury of his own.

Now check this out: I'm seeing Brady being touted as a definite-top-5/possibly-top-3/maybe-top-overall QB in many fantasy circles, but a lot of that is still based on memories of his record-breaking, pre-injury 2007 season. Take away that 50-TD anomaly, and he's never thrown for more than 28 scores in a season. Granted, he equaled that number last year and also had his second-most passing yards (4,398) - yet he still finished as the seventh-rated fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues.

Other QBs have closed the gap on old stalwarts Brady and Peyton Manning - not just new standard-bearer Drew Brees but also young upstarts like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. Brady still might be a safe fantasy pick, but it depends where you're picking him too, because there are others available who might have more upside or be even safer. Remember, Brady's 33 years old (and so is Moss for that matter) and is going to eventually decline. Nobody wants to spend a first- or second-round pick on him the year that happens.

That's all I'm sayin'.

Is Tim Tebow a fantasy prospect?

To put it simply: No.

Not in 2010, anyway.

But can he be, eventually?

It's possible.

Even casual fans know Tim Tebow is not a polished product. If you've seen him running Urban Meyer's offense in Gainesville, you know it bears little resemblance to today's NFL. He can't step in right away in Week 1 and be an effective pro starter and fantasy force the way Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were two seasons ago.

Even the Denver Broncos brass knows that, though they probably won't admit it. Tebow's going to need some tutelage, and they believe head coach Josh McDaniels is the guy for the job. He worked wonders with a little-known sixth-rounder (Tom Brady) who became a Hall of Famer under his watch, and then McDaniels made a guy who hadn't started a game since high school (Matt Cassel) into a legitimate starting QB.

Tebow will be given a shot to earn the starting job in 2010, and while he's probably not ready to beat out incumbent Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn this summer, neither of those guys are exactly entrenched starters who can never be toppled. Tebow will spend next year running Denver's "Wild Horses" package - their version of the wildcat - while learning the QB position. That still probably won't be enough to make Tebow fantasy-relevant, but McDaniels and the Broncos are going to give him every chance to make that the case in 2011.

So, no, even the most diehard Gator backers don't want Tebow on their fantasy roster next season.

But after that, it's certainly possible.


- Photo by The Associated Press

Best of the decade?

As we say goodbye to 2009, I'm seeing all kinds of all-decade lists popping up all over the place (Best movies? Best songs? Best TV themes?)

It got me thinking: Who were the best fantasy players of the 2000s? It'd be awfully hard to narrow it down to an all-decade team. For instance, Peyton Manning's probably the obvious choice at QB, but how do you deny Tom Brady's record-busting 2007 season? Or how do you narrow it down to 1 or 2 running backs - say, LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes - and leave out a Brian Westbrook or Adrian Peterson or Marshall Faulk?

Jay Clemons of SI.com actually figured out a better approach, ranking the top 10 fantasy seasons of the decade. Here's what they came up with in a nutshell:

1. Tom Brady, 2007
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006
3. Peyton Manning, 2004
4. Randy Moss, 2007
5. Shaun Alexander, 2005
6. Daunte Culpepper, 2004
7. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2003
8. Marvin Harrison, 2002
9. Tony Gonzalez, 2004
10. Drew Brees, 2008

A few things jump out at me:

- How does Holmes not make the list? It's easy to forget that near the start of the decade he was every bit as dominating as Tomlinson in his prime and single-handedly won many leagues in the early 2000s. A tight end makes the list and Priest doesn't?

- Brady may have had the single most impressive fantasy season of the '00s, but as SI points out, the rest of his career belongs simply in the "good" category, from a fantasy standpoint.

- It's almost unfathomable that Culpepper, who can't even stay on the field for the Detroit Lions nowadays, was once the game's best fantasy QB. I owned him in 2004, his incredible 39-TD season, and loved every minute of it. I also drafted him the following year, the start of his long downward career spiral, and still haven't forgiven him.

Photo by The Associated Press

Week 6 Recap

Random thoughts from another week of gridiron goodness:

- Take a bow, Tom Brady (380 yards, 6 TDs). You've got to be licking your chops thinking about Sunday's game against the Bucs in London.

- Do Drew Brees' 4 TD passes make up for not him not throwing one in the two games before that? Probably. But it'd be nice to see a little more consistency.

- I knew Visanthe Shiancoe (5 TDs in 6 games) and Brett Favre would be a great team.

- Remember when Willis McGahee was a hot pickup? After three consecutive dreadful weeks (5 carries, 11 yards; 1 carry, -2 yards; 7 carries, 3 yards), I'm extremely glad I didn't jump on that bandwagon and stuck with Ray Rice (194 total yards, 2 TDs) as the Raven runner to own.

- I'm surprised Ben Roethlisberger has thrown the ball so much this year - at least 30 attempts in every game this season - but the results have been great the past few weeks. I'm afraid they might not be the next two weeks (vs. Minnesota, at Denver), however.

- Jake Delhomme (9-for-17, 65 yards) is killing Steve Smith's value. So is the Panthers' rejuvenated running game. But I still don't think I can resist starting Smith this week against Buffalo.

- Clinton Portis registered his first 100-yard rushing game of the year Sunday. Too bad his upcoming schedule (Philly, at Atlanta, Denver, at Dallas, at Philly, New Orleans) and the Redskins' offensive turmoil (in other words, they suck) will make it hard for him to repeat it any time soon.

- Good to see the Jaguars' coaching staff took Maurice Jones-Drew's (33 carries, 133 yards, 3 TDs, plus 45 receiving yards) complaints to heart. Now let's see the same thing against Tennessee and Kansas City, OK?

- Matt Schaub now has 4 outstanding fantasy performances and two busts. Hopefully the Texans will keep airing it out and Schaub can be penciled in as a no-doubt, every-week starter.

- Aaron Rodgers still put together a good day (358 yards, 2 TDs) despite getting sacked 5 times. You can do that against Detroit (and Cleveland next week), but the Packers' protection problems have me very nervous about Rodgers in some of the tougher matchups he'll face later on.

- So much for Matt Hasselback (10-for-29, 112 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) being back to fantasy starter status. That was painful.

The great QB debate

Who's the top QB to target in fantasy this year? For me, the choice comes down to three: Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

Let's start with old reliable, Mr. Manning. Has he had a disappointing season yet? He's never missed a start in 11 seasons. He's never thrown for fewer than 3,700 yards or 26 TDs in a season either. Now, Manning is a long way from his amazing 49-TD season in 2004, the record-breaking Reggie Wayne-Marvin Harrison duo is no more, and he's dealing with the most significant coaching changes of his NFL career. At age 33, Peyton doesn't offer the same kind of upside he once did - but at the same time, there's probably no safer pick in all of fantasy. He checks in at No. 3 on this year's QB rankings.

If you're more of a gambler, Brady might be your pick. Some people want to pretend like last year's devastating Week 1 knee injury never happened and Brady will pick up where he left off with 2007's 50-TD campaign. I'm not sure I can go with that, and I'd have to think long and hard before making Brady my QB. We've seen other quarterbacks - Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb - struggle to come back from similar ACL injuries, but they were much more mobile than Brady to begin with. Carson Palmer also suffered a similar injury in 2005 but bounced back nicely the following season. Can Brady do the same? He's had a full year to recover, and his strong point has never been his legs anyway. Can he return to the same record-setting, fantasy-MVP level he was at in '07? Maybe. He's got just as many receiving targets - Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis - a similar running back committee and and the same mastermind, Bill Belichick, running the offense. There may not be a QB with more fantasy potential, but if that knee isn't fully healed, taking Brady with a first-round pick could devastate your team. He's No. 2 on our list.

That leaves Brees as this year's top fantasy QB. He's led the league in pass attempts the past two seasons, and although the Saints might like to be a little more balanced on offense, Sean Payton's not afraid to air it out, meaning Brees has a legit shot at hitting the 5,000-yard mark and maybe setting the single-season passing record. With a complete arsenal - Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas - to spread the ball around to, Brees could finish head and shoulders above the rest of the league's QBs.

Brady blues

Week 1 is in the books, and you may have heard the big news:

Tom Brady is done for the year.

It's a crushing blow for anyone who reached for Brady in the first round and built their team around him. It's also bad news for anybody counting on big points from Randy Moss or Wes Welker.

If you own Brady, now what? Is Matt Cassel the answer? You've probably got to pick him up - although I see him as more of a low-end No. 2 QB than anything else. Granted, he's got weapons to throw to and a scheming genius calling his plays, but he's also a guy who has not started a game since high school (You read that correctly - Cassel was a career backup at USC), and the Pats were concerned enough to bring in Tim Rattay and Chris Simms for workouts. Cassel's a huge unknown - he could be a diamond in the rough (much like Brady once was, as you'll recall), but more than likely he's just an average fantasy QB.

Hopefully, you've drafted well and have a capable backup or are already putting together a trade proposal; you can bet the rest of your league is thinking about making an offer to take advantage of you while you're down. There are only a handful of QBs in the league who could replicate Brady's expected numbers, though, so expect to take a step backward no matter who you turn to.

Snow problem

Sounds like they're calling for some nasty weather up in Foxborough this weekend for the Patriots-Jets game. That's probably got some of you a little concerned if you've ridden Tom Brady and Co. to the fantasy playoffs. Before you go and do something drastic, however, let's think about this.

Our friend Tom does have some experience playing in the snow, as you may recall from the picture above. Obviously the white stuff, if it does hit, will slow down the passing game a bit, and that's what the Patriots are built around this season. But I really don't think there's any way you can bench Brady, Randy Moss or probably even Wes Welker this week. Doesn't matter if there's three feet of snow on the ground, the Pats are going to try to embarrass the Jets after the whole spygate thing. Now, you want to bench Ben Watson? Donte' Stallworth? Jerricho Cotchery or Laveranues Coles of the Jets? I'm fine with that. But you'll probably never forgive yourself if Brady hooks up with Moss a couple times and you have them on your bench. I'm just sayin.

Photo courtesy of the Boston Globe.