RB DARREN McFADDEN at Arizona: It’s time to take this guy seriously again after 145 rushing yards on 30 carries last week against St. Louis. He’s the NFL’s second-leading rusher, and the this week's opponents, the Cardinals, are second-worst against the run (153.0 a game).
WR SANTANA MOSS at St. Louis: The veteran has hit it off with new QB Donovan McNabb, catching 16 passes so far. The Redskins will look to pound the ball against a soft Rams run defense, but I still see Moss doing some damage through the air.
BRETT FAVRE vs. Detroit: Favre’s thrown 51 TDs in 30 career games against the Lions. Only his own Vikings (52 TDs) and the Bears (53 TDs) have been victimized more by the man that Father Time forgot. It’s been a rough 2010 for Brett, but he returns to form this week against the Lions.
Last week’s picks
- Ahmad Bradshaw had a commendable 89 yards on 17 carries against the Colts. Not exactly Arian Foster-level production, but solid, and the good news for Bradshaw’s long-term value is teammate Brandon Jacobs carried the ball only four times and suffered a helmet-tossing, possibly trade-demanding meltdown.
- Dwayne Bowe’s 4 catches for 45 yards against the Browns weren’t quite what I had in mind but are a step in the right direction.
- Dez Bryant recorded only 2 catches against Chicago, but he made them count (52 yards) and he added a 62-yard punt return for a TD to boot.
Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas might have been the more familiar names occupying Oakland's backfield, but it was Bush who ended up leading the Silver & Black in rushing last year.
Granted, it was a paltry 589 rushing yards, but still - Bush averaged a more-than-respectable 4.8 yards a carry while getting nothing close to regular playing time in 2009. The Raiders would be wise to let Bush, a tough, inside-the-tackles runner with speed, play a bigger role this year. And all indications are they will do just that, with Fargas getting released in the offseason and the disappointing McFadden nursing injuries again this preseason.
We're probably looking at a timeshare here, unfortunately, with the quicker McFadden serving as a complement to the 247-pound Bush. But with Fargas out of the way I could see Bush getting a few more goal-line looks, and with Jason Campbell under center instead of a JaMarcus Russell/Charlie Frye combo the Raiders should at least have a more respectable passing game to keep opponents from stacking the box. I like Bush as an underrated RB4 who might be able to come close to 800 or 900 yards and 5 or 6 TDs.
- WR EDDIE ROYAL vs. New England: Your patience has got to be wearing thin with this guy (8 catches in 2009), and he's facing a top 10 passing defense. No thanks.
- RBs MICHAEL BUSH and JUSTIN FARGAS at N.Y. Giants: You may be tempted to use one of these guys in the wake of starter Darren McFadden's injury. Don't. Without any semblance of a Raiders passing game, odds are the Giants will be loading up against the run no matter who's in the backfield.
- QB MARK SANCHEZ at Miami: The Jets rookie had his "welcome to the NFL" game last week at New Orleans and will play in another hostile road environment against a good Dolphins D. There are safer bye-week fill-ins available.
LAST WEEK'S PICKS
- Fred Jackson had his lowest rushing total of the season (42 yards) and caught 3 passes for 26 yards.
- Matt Cassel tossed two TDs in garbage time ... but he passed for only 127 yards.
- TJ Houshmandzadeh had 8 catches for 103 yards against the Colts, his best game so far this year ... oops.
Inquiring minds want to know: Who is this year's Adrian Peterson?
AP dropped a bomb on fantasy leagues last year, rushing for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns after starting his rookie year in a platoon situation for the Minnesota Vikings. His 296-yard performance in Week 9 against the vaunted San Diego Chargers defense is one that will live in fantasy lore for the ages.
Peterson was taken in the fifth round or later in many drafts last year, but now the secret's out, and he has vaulted to the No. 2 running back ranking behind fantasy stalwart LaDainian Tomlinson. You'll no longer get such a huge return on your investment, since a minimum of 1,300 yards and 12 TDs will be expected from Peterson this year as a first-rounder.
So who's this year's Peterson?
Darren McFadden of the Oakland Raiders seems to be a popular answer. He's the highest rated rookie runner on most lists, including mine, and with good reason: he was an explosive and versatile collegiate back at Arkansas, as dominant as Peterson was at Oklahoma.
The only problem is while Peterson landed in a perfect situation in Minnesota, McFadden's is a bit murkier. Oakland's offensive line isn't quite up to par with last year's group in Minnesota (which included two Pro Bowlers). And Peterson only had to compete with veteran Chester Taylor for carries, while McFadden must fend off both Justin Fargas (who broke out for 1,000 yards last year) and Michael Bush, a 2007 fourth-round draft pick and a former Heisman Trophy contender at Louisville who sat out last year with a broken leg.
That doesn't mean McFadden can't have the same impact as Peterson - it just makes it less likely. And it means you'd be foolish to draft McFadden - or any other rookie - counting on him to be your No. 1 RB.
Here's a look at the rest of the rankings:
1. Tomlinson, Chargers: Even with last year's knee injury (which didn't require surgery), he's simply too good and too consistent to go any lower than No. 1 overall.
2. Peterson, Vikings.
3. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles: Played every game last year and got a contract extension from the notoriously stingy Birds. It's safe to remove the "injury risk" tag and simply say he's good.
4. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: An unexciting but consistent pick with very few question marks - that's what wins championships.
5. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams: Holdout has ended, and O-line simply has to be better than last year. A risk, for sure, but he has more fantasy upside than any player ranked below him.
6. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills: Will be running people over (pun intended) this year as Buffalo's offensive focal point.
7. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: New coach Jim Zorn plans to put the ball in Portis' hands a lot.
8. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: Mike Martz is supposed to work wonders - but how did that work out for Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell last year? Gore should at least see more passes (but then again, look at who's throwing them). Be cautious.
9. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys: At his best when he's part of a one-two punch; will be a TD machine again only if rookie Felix Jones can fill the departed Julius Jones' shoes.
10. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers: Camp hasn't been encouraging, but he's got fresher legs and more job security than backs ranked below him.
Jason is a Penn State graduate and New Jersey native currently residing in Florida. He has worked as a sports reporter, editor and page designer at newspapers in three states.
In addition to his blog, Jason writes syndicated columns on fantasy baseball and football.
To ask him a fantasy question, inquire about his column, schedule a radio interview or tell him he's an idiot, contact him at jbartolone@hotmail.com.
