Keeper debate: Adam Jones vs. Billy Butler

My old pal Sean-Dogg recently hit me up for some fantasy advice, as he's been known to do over the years. He's in a pretty serious keeper league and he's faced with a big conundrum: He's got to give up Alex Rodriguez at the end of the year, so he's trying to entertain trade offers while his team is basically out of contention this season.

His decision right now essential comes down to choosing between Orioles OF Adam Jones and some spare parts, or a package that includes Royals 1B Billy Butler. Neither of those guys is going to replace the overall production of an A-Rod anytime soon, but they're both quality keeper prospects who are relatively young (Jones turns 25 in a few weeks; Butler just turned 24 in April) and have room to grow. So who's a better keeper pick?

To start, we should note that the skill sets are quite different. Butler's not known for being fleet of foot (1 career SB in 4 seasons); Jones has swiped 10 bags in each of the past two years (though he has just 3 so far in 2010). Butler's a career .297 hitter with an average currently hovering at .318; Jones seems to have topped out at around .270. Butler's been a much more patient hitter, as evidenced by his 41/37 K/BB ratio this year; Jones has only walked 10 times in 2010 compared to 79 strikeouts. Both have shown 20-homer power (Butler had 21 last year, Jones 19).

This is a pretty tough call. As I told the Dogg, I want to give Butler the edge because he's younger than Jones and yet he's already proven more at the major league level. The ability to hit .300 for a season is a impressive skill, and last year's .301/21/93 stat line speaks volumes about Butler's talents. However, while the average is for real, I wonder if he can improve on those power numbers and jump up to the class of the 30- and 40-homer first basemen that dominate a deep position.

Jones' potential as a five-category contributor are intriguing, but they're still just that, potential. Until I see better results and an improved approach at the plate and more aggression on the basepaths, I have to declare Butler the better keeper prospect by a hair.

Hope that helps, buddy.


Photos by The Associated Press

What's up with A-Rod?

Alex Rodriguez's recent hip troubles have to be making a whole lot of fantasy owners feel a little queasy.

A-Rod's been benched since tweaking his hip on Thursday, with the Yankees saying it's a case of tendinitis and isn't related to the hip surgery that cost the slugger more than a month of action in 2009. Rodriguez is expected to be back in the lineup Tuesday, but I wouldn't blame his owners for feeling uneasy right now. It's unnerving to have a guy who's probably your best hitter dealing with that type of injury.

Then again, A-Rod hasn't quite been the A-Rod of old so far. His 2010 stats aren't exactly eye-popping - .290, 8 HR, 43 RBIs - but he's capable of going on a tear at any point when healthy. Remember, Rodriguez hit 21 homers after this date (June 13) last year, and I could easily see him duplicating that in 2010. The Yanks are just being overly cautious with their prize commodity, and hopefully these days of rest are all he needs to get himself feeling good at the plate again. A-Rod is still a top option at 3B.

Evan Longoria is cleaning up

I know it's only two games, but it looks like Evan Longoria has taken a liking to batting cleanup.

The Tampa Bay Rays moved their cornerstone third baseman from third to fourth in the batting order this year, and while I've heard some chatter that he preffered batting in the No. 3 hole, the switch doesn't seem to have affected him much. So far he's 3-for-8 with four RBIs and blasted his second home run of the season Wednesday night against Baltimore.

In other words, he's cleaning up - and I don't just mean the cash he's raking in from his commercials.

Longo's been a popular pick from 2010 AL MVP, and I have to concur. I ranked him as the No. 2 3B entering the season, behind Alex Rodriguez and above David Wright, and I believe he can challenge A-Rod as fantasy's best third baseman this year.

Draft Day primer

It's a popular weekend for fantasy drafts with the MLB season slated to get under way Sunday night with another blood feud at Fenway Park. For those of you making your final draft preparations, a few tips:

1. Start with a list of player rankings. It can be from any source you trust: ESPN.com, SI.com, or one of those outrageously priced magazines on newsstands. Most will provide a list to suit your needs - top 300 (or more) overall, top NL-only players, etc. - as well as lists broken down by position.

2. Ideally, you've been doing some thinking/research/reading of this blog on your own up until this point and have some of your own opinions about who you like/dislike. I suggest using the prepared lists as a basis and reworking them according to your preferences. That way you don't have to start from scratch, but you can move Alex Rodriguez up or down a few spots depending on what you think of him.

3. I also find it helpful to group players into tiers by delineating them after they've been ranked by position. For instance, let's say your catcher rankings look something like this:

1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Victor Martinez
4. Matt Wieters
5. Miguel Montero
6. Jorge Posada

You probably consider Mauer an "elite" catcher, far and away the best on the list. So you draw a horizontal line below his name to mark him off as the top tier. Then, let's say you think McCann and Martinez are more or less equal, so you mark them off as the next tier with a line under Martinez's name. And you put Wieters, Montero and Posada in the same tier after that.

1. Joe Mauer
______________
2. Brian McCann
3. Victor Martinez
______________

4. Matt Wieters
5. Miguel Montero
6. Jorge Posada

This way, as you get further into your draft, you can easily see the availability of players grouped in the same tier. For instance, maybe Wieters and Posada have already been drafted but Montero's still on the board, and there's a drop-off after that to another tier of guys you really aren't interested in. It's probably a good time to call Montero's name with your next pick. Seems simple, but it can really help you decide when it's OK to pass on a certain position and when to pull the trigger.

4. Know your league! Make sure you bring a paper with slots for every roster slot you'll need to fill. If your league starts an extra corner outfielder, you'll be much more pressed to grab a big-hitting 1B or 3B in the earlier rounds. If you need to carry a certain number of relievers or count WHIP as one of your statistics, you'll want to do some extra reading to identify quality set-up guys.

5. Do the same with your leaguemates' squads and jot down their picks by position as they make them, at least in the earlier rounds. Let's say I'm in a 10-team league, and I know eight of the other teams already have a SS. There are two SS left on the board that I'd be comfortable with as my starter, so I can probably afford to skip that position with my next pick, take another guy, and grab a SS on the next go-around.

6. Have fun. Make fun of other people's picks. And let them laugh at yours. But don't let them dissuade you from building your team the way you want to, because when it comes down to it, nobody knows anything. Nobody thought Zack Greinke would be so good last year. Nobody thought Chien-Ming Wang would be so bad. But it happens. Fantasy baseball isn't a computer program; you can't just plug names into a roster and get an expected output. It's unpredictable. It takes skill, but also a lot of luck. And don't forget it's supposed to be fun.

New Face, New Place: Curtis Granderson, Yankees

OK, OK, Curtis Granderson can't hit left-handers - or, at least he couldn't in 2009 (.183 vs. LHP). But other than that, there's not much to dislike about the guy this year.

Granderson's move from Detroit to New York seems like a perfect match of his left-handed power and the new Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch. Some have attributed his steady decline in batting average (.249 in 2009, down from .280 in 2008 and .302 in 2007) to Granderson trying to swing for the fences - which would explain his 49-percent flyball rate and career high 30 homers last year. But for fantasy purposes, I say swing away!

It's unclear where Granderson will be slotted in the Yankees' lineup - he could bat second ahead of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, but the optimum spot for his fantasy fortunes would be somewhere around sixth or seventh, where he is free to race around the basepaths. Granderson could easily be a 20-steal, 30-homer OF this year, and if he can raise that average he'll be a steal in the middle rounds.

- Photo by The Associated Press

Inside the Top 50

A few random insights into my Top 50 players list:

Albert Pujols is the consensus No. 1 fantasy pick in almost every rankings, including mine. But I went with Alex Rodriguez at No. 2 over Hanley Ramirez because I think A-Rod still has at least another year of elite production and could rival Pujols' offensive numbers. If you look at what Rodriguez did last year despite the missed games with a hip injury and the fallout from his steroid admission, you could easily make a case this will be a special year for him.

But I'd still be thrilled to build my team around Han-Ram at shortstop, even though his steals totals have been in decline.

Just a personal preference, but I don't like taking pitchers in the first round, which is why Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum are just outside the top 10. And surprise - I like Halladay this year in the NL just slightly more than fantasy favorite Lincecum.

Evan Longoria edges David Wright as my top third baseman. I just can't put Wright's awful 2009 out of my mind, even though he says this year will be different.

Adrian Gonzalez is a tad higher on my list than some others I've seen. That's in the hopes that he gets traded somewhere this season - Boston, perhaps? He'd have hit 50 HRs or more last year if he didn't play home games in Petco Park.

I'm a little down on Ichiro Suzuki this year. Last season's leg troubles and declining SB/runs totals scare me a little.

I have similar concerns about Brian Roberts, who's stolen base numbers have dropped from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past three seasons and who's still recovering from a herniated disk that's kept him out of spring training games so far. But with 2B being such a shallow position he might be a risk I'm willing to take.

Jonathan Broxton is the only closer who cracks the top-50. And I'd still probably avoid taking him (or any closer) that high.

B.J. Upton rounds out the list in the hopes he'll have a bounce-back year at the plate. He could be a steal.

The great keeper debate

My primary baseball league the past few years has been one run by some of my newsroom cohorts. It's a 10-team keeper league with a regular snake draft, and it's pretty competitive (I've finished in the bottom half the past two years, much to everyone else's delight).

With the deadline for keepers rapidly approaching - each team must designate 5 players they'll "keep" from last year's squad - I thought I'd take you through my thought process.

Luckily it wasn't a very tough decision, but that's because my team last year just wasn't that talented. While some of my competitors had as many as 10 or more players they could legitimately make a case for keeping, I narrowed my list down to seven.

But first, some guys who didn't make the cut: Dan Uggla, Elvis Andrus, Alex Rios, Franklin Gutierrez, Alcides Escobar, Nolan Reimold, Scott Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco, Rick Porcello, Joba Chamberlain. All useful players, but not really keeper material in this format. We've never really had a "long-term" focus in this league; the way I see it, our keepers should more or less represent the top 50 (5 keepers a team, 10 teams) fantasy players. None of those guys qualify.

Next, the no-brainers: Ryan Howard, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Hernandez. Howard is a top-10 talent and my big thumper. I've come to love Ellsbury, one of the few players capable of single-handedly keeping you afloat in steals while not killing you in other categories. And King Felix is, in my mind, a potential top-5 starter this year.

Now, the tough decisions. I've got two keeper spots left for four players: Ryan Zimmerman, Jason Bay, Josh Beckett, Matt Wieters.

Wieters is obviously a great long-term keeper, as he has a real chance to develop into one of the game's top 2 catchers (along with Joe Mauer). But is he top-2 this year? Is he a top-50 player this year? I think not. Keeping Wieters will put me at a disadvantage. Sorry Matt.

How about Zimmerman? Last year's numbers (.292/33/106) were great, and third base is fairly weak this year. A slight improvement (far from impossible for a 25-year-old) and he could surpass contemporaries Evan Longoria and David Wright and finish behind only Alex Rodriguez among fantasy second baseman. I'm keeping him.

So that leaves Beckett and Bay for one spot. Beckett can be a top-15 pitcher this year if all goes well. Bay can be a top-15 OF. In a perfect world, I'd have a more sure thing to choose from, but these guys are the best I've got. I don't foresee a lot of pitchers being kept this year, which should leave the redraft pretty flush with them. Outfielders capable of 30 homers and 30 steals? Not so much. Bay it is.

So there you have it. Ryan Howard, Felix Hernandez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Zimmerman, Jason Bay. Let's go get em, guys.

New Face, New Place: Johnny Damon, Tigers

Johnny Damon's reward for a surprisingly stellar 2009 season and a memorable postseason was a one-year, $8 million deal with the Detroit Tigers this offseason.

Damon can thank agent Scott Boras for overplaying his hand and getting his client such a disappointing deal (they had sought at least two years and upwards of $15 million per year, preferably with the Yankees - whoops!) But on the bright side, at least Damon can grow out his Jesus beard again.

So what can we expect from Damon in Detroit? Certainly not the 24 homers he mashed last year, which tied a career high - 17 of those puppies came thanks to the jet stream in the new Yankee Stadium. His power numbers will likely diminish, but the tradeoff could be an uptick in steals, as Damon will probably bat leadoff or second behind former Yankee farmhand Austin Jackson, who could be the Tigers' starting center fielder. Detroit may ask Damon to run the way he used to before last year - he had three straight seasons of 25+ steals before last year's 12. Damon won't be batting ahead of Mark Teixeira/Alex Rodriguez anymore, but he's still got on-base skills and should have more opportunities to swipe bags.

Put it all together and Damon is still a valuable third or fourth fantasy outfielder. Just don't expect those homers.

I'll trade you Pujols for Peyton ...

A friend of mine mentioned a pretty interesting idea the other day: could a combination football/baseball fantasy league work?

It's an intriguing proposition to say the least. The logistics would be complicated and the commitment great. First off, you'd have to get the same 8-12 people to sign up for a season that would last from April to December. My guess is there's probably a good deal of overlapping of folks who play in both a baseball and a football league, but who knows?

Another big factor: The standings and scoring format. Would you play head-to-head throughout the year? Would you crown a "midseason champion" at the end of baseball season and give that winner some kind of prize bonus (not that I condone monetary gambling of any kind)? Would you then reset the standings completely? (Probably not, since you might as well just play two separate leagues in that case.) If it's one long season and a team's stuck near the bottom of the standings around August, would the prospect of reinforcing your team with a whole football roster be enough to keep them interested?

Here's the really fascinating part, as my bud Jason Dill put it when he was pitching this idea: What if you could trade Albert Pujols for Peyton Manning? Or Alex Rodriguez for Adrian Peterson (A-Rod for AD)? Or to be a little more obscure, Chone Figgins for Shonn Greene?

If you held your football draft early enough in the NFL preseason, you could have about a month's overlap between football and baseball seasons with which to swap players between sports. You'd probably have to make this a keeper league, too, to keep owners from dumping all their best baseball players to shore up their football team - which adds yet another layer of complication to this Super League.

And if you really wanted to blow this thing out: How about making it a fantasy basketball league, too?

Just something to think about during a slow time in the fantasy sports world.

The A-Rod Saga continues

On today's episode of The Alex Rodriguez Saga ...

The New York Yankees slugger, who has yet to make his 2009 debut as he recovers from hip surgery, is currently on rehab assignment in Florida. He went 1-for-6 with a walk Friday against Pittsburgh Pirates minor leaguers in an extended spring training game, as the Bradenton Herald's John Lembo reported. He followed that up with another exhibition Saturday in Tampa, playing the field for the first time.

A-Rod's official return date had been penciled in as May 15, but the Yankees say he is ahead of schedule and could return as early as New York's May 8-10 series against the Orioles. That's pretty remarkable, considering some of the dire predictions that popped up when word of Rodriguez's injury first surfaced. It's also an encouraging bit of news for his fantasy owners, who've had to endure endless stories about A-Rod's alleged steroid use (as far back as high school!) while keeping one of the game's best players on their benches.

If you're one of those owners, start clearing room on your active roster. You should be putting A-Rod in your lineup as soon as the Yankees do, no matter how he hits in these meaningless spring games.

The Steinbrenner boys and their braintrust will not risk bringing back their multi-million-dollar man before he's ready, and the team actually isn't desperate for A-Rod's offense; the Yanks are currently second in the league in runs scored without him. Once he eases his way back into game shape, that offense will be even more dangerous. So back off that ledge, Mark Teixeira owners - brighter days are around the corner. A-Rod's almost here.

Photo by The Associated Press

A-Rod, the juice, and his fantasy future

Not since the early days of the Barry Bonds BALCO scandal have we had a mess like this in fantasy sports. What the heck do you do with Alex Rodriguez this year?

The dude was easily a top-three fantasy player a month ago, but his latest offseason drama - which includes his admitted use of something he calls "Boli" and now his hip surgery - have really thrown a monkeywrench into our preseason plans. A-Rod (or A-Roid, or A-Fraud, or A-Hole, the possibilities are endless) is expected to miss six to nine weeks at the start of the season after he underwent a procedure to repair a torn labrum - which you usually hear about in shoulders, not hips. The Yankees, who've committed more money to this guy in the next decade than the government has to AIG, are confident he'll be back and productive sometime in May, and ESPN injury expert Stephania Bell gives him an excellent chance to return to his old self by season's end.

So the prognosis seems good, and even A-Rod playing at 80 percent capability for 80 percent of the MLB season is an extremely valuable fantasy commodity. If you're in a keeper league it's obviously bad news - you've got to hold onto him even though he won't give you anything for at least the first month and a half of the season. That will be a painful pill to swallow (or inject, if you like) but I don't think I could toss him back in good conscience and let somebody else pick up his 30 homers and 90 RBIs and 15 steals, assuming he rounds back into form by the end of May.

Now, if you're redrafting and A-Rod is sitting out there for the taking, when do you pull the trigger? I'm seeing him ranked by several respectable fantasy publications somewhere around the low 20s to the low 30s, which would put him at the end of the second round or into the third round in a 10-team league. He's the very definition of a high-risk, high-reward pick at that point, and if you think your team can stay afloat until he returns, go for it. You'll want to grab a capable fill-in at third base, which is a scarce position to begin with, but holding onto A-Rod could really pay off by midseason.

As for what all this means for the rest of the Yankees' stars ... it's not great. As you may recall, A-Rod's offense has almost single-handedly kept New York afloat through some otherwise terrible starts to the past two seasons, and they're going to miss his bat immensely in the middle of the batting order. The pressure's on for offseason import Mark Teixeira, notorious for being a slow starter to begin with and now missing his protection in the lineup. Table-setters Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter and sleeper candidate Brett Gardner could see their run-scoring drop off significantly without Rodriguez batting behind them. And if you're thinking of scooping up A-Rod's replacement (for now), 33-year-old Cody Ransom, forget it: He's a career .242 hitter with a .322 on-base percentage in 11 (count 'em, 11) seasons in the minor leagues. I'm sure you can do better unless you're taking him at the very end of an AL-only draft.

Hot talent at the hot corner

The hot corner is the hot position in fantasy baseball this year.

The pool of third basemen is teeming with talent, from upper-echelon studs to youngsters with potential to old standbys. The top three players in my overall 2008 rankings are all third basemen. It's become one of the game's deepest positions, rivaling first base and starting pitching.

As we stroll down the third-base line, the conversation has to begin with Alex Rodriguez, by all accounts the top fantasy player entering the season. A-Rod's stats were off the charts in 2007, even for him - career highs in RBIs, runs and on-base and slugging percentages - and with Rodriguez still in his prime and in a virtually unchanged New York Yankees lineup, he represents the safest and smartest pick at No. 1.

However, if you can't get your hands on A-Rod this year, no worries. There are two other third basemen who can make legitimate claims of being top-five worthy, and their numbers shouldn't be all that far behind Rodriguez's by season's end.

The first is David Wright, another Big Apple idol. The New York Mets' golden child is a five-category contributor, with rarely seen speed (34 steals in 2007) for a third baseman. If you can get that kind of production from a corner outfielder, you've won half the battle. I have Wright ranked as the No. 2 overall fantasy player.

The other truly elite third baseman is Miguel Cabrera, who checks in at No. 3 on my overall list. He's already building Cooperstown credentials at age 24, and the thought of him moving into the Detroit Tigers' mini-Murderer's Row lineup is about as scary as the eye black/war paint Cabrera wears. It's conceivable he could finish the year as fantasy's best third baseman, assuming he doesn't struggle adjusting to the American League.

Rodriguez, Wright and Cabrera will soon have some company at the top. Start with the Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun, last year's National League Rookie of the Year. Braun is actually moving to left field this season - but don't worry, he'll keep third base eligibility in most leagues.

Defense is about the only hole in his game, as his amazing rookie numbers (.324 average, 34 home runs, 97 RBIs, 91 runs, 15 steals) weren't that far off Wright's or Cabrera's. The small sample size (451 at-bats) worries me a bit, but now Braun can focus a little less on fielding and more on padding those stats at the plate.

Who's this year's Braun? Could be Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays. Insert your own "Desperate Housewives" joke here, but don't laugh at the kid's game - the sweet-swinging, smooth-fielding 22-year-old has been on the fast track to the majors and may win the Rays' starting job this spring. Even if he doesn't, expect to see him making a run at AL rookie honors by midseason.

And while we're on the subject of young talent, don't overlook the Kansas City Royals' Alex Gordon, last year's much-hyped uber-prospect who hit a wall (.247, 137 strikeouts in 543 at-bats) as a rookie. Gordon is way too gifted to give up on yet, and after being overvalued at last year's draft, he'll be undervalued this year. Good time to buy low.

It's not just the Big Three and the fresh faces at third this year, either.

You've got your old reliables (Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Mike Lowell) your up-and-comers (Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chone Figgins) and your sleepers (Edwin Encarnacion, Hank Blalock) - a little something for everyone. If you get locked out of the top-tier guys, there's plenty of depth in the middle rounds.

Baseball Top 50: Why A-Rod is No. 1

TAMPA, Fla. - I've put together my preseason top 30, and here's a shock: Alex Rodriguez is No. 1.

A-Rod is a lightning rod for criticism and often equally despised in all five boroughs, but here's an often-overlooked fact: The guy is great. Not good, not really good, great.

We all know he won the the third MVP of his already-Hall-of-Fame-worthy career, but do you realize how great he was in 2007? He reached career highs in RBIs (156!) runs (143!) on-base percentage (.422!) and slugging percentage (.645!). He had his second-fewest strikeouts (120) since 1999, his second-most walks (95) since 2000 and his most steals (24) since 2004. And now he returns to the heart of a virtually unchanged lineup at age 32 for what should be another year of his prime. He doesn't really have any weaknesses, and while he believes teammate and best bud Derek Jeter will be this year's MVP, the smart money is on A-Rod to take home that trophy again with another monster season.

It's easy to jump to conclusions just from watching players sleepwalk through spring training, but seeing A-Rod toss the ball around at Legends Field on Tuesday (above), one got the sense he's more comfortable in his pinstripes than he used to be. Of course, if you put together the kind of 2007 campaign he just did, you'd be at ease, too. The pressure will never be lifted until he brings a World Series title to the Bronx, but Rodriguez realizes that from March to October, all he can do is focus on his own game. And with game like this, he's the safest fantasy pick you can make.

Here are the rest of my 2008 rankings:

1. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. 3B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
3. 3B David Wright, Mets
4. SS Jose Reyes, Mets
5. SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
6. SP Johan Santana, Mets
7. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals
8. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies
9. OF Matt Holliday, Rockies
10. 1B Ryan Howard, Phillies
11. OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
12. SS Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
13. 1B Prince Fielder, Brewers
14. OF Carl Crawford, Rays
15. SP Jake Peavy, Padres
16. 3B Ryan Braun, Brewers
17. OF Grady Sizemore, Indians
18. OF Carlos Beltran, Mets
19. OF Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
20. DH David Ortiz, Red Sox
21. 2B/OF B.J. Upton, Rays
22. OF Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
23. 2B Brandon Phillips, Reds
24. 1B Justin Morneau, Twins
25. 1B Mark Teixeira, Braves
26. OF Carlos Lee, Astros
27. OF Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
28. 1B/OF Lance Berkman, Astros
29. OF Curtis Granderson, Tigers
30. C Victor Martinez, Indians
31. 3B Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
32. SP Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
33. SP Erik Bedard, Orioles
34. OF Adam Dunn, Reds
35. 1B Derrek Lee, Cubs
36. SP Josh Beckett, Red Sox
37. 2B Robinson Cano, Yankees
38. OF Alex Rios, Blue Jays
39. SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
40. OF Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
41. C Russell Martin, Dodgers
42. 3B/2B/OF Chone Figgins, Angels
43. RP Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
44. RP Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
45. SS Derek Jeter, Yankees
46. 2B Brian Roberts, Orioles
47. SP Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
48. DH Travis Hafner, Indians
49. OF Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
50. 3B Garrett Atkins, Rockies

Spring report No. 3

BRADENTON, Fla. - Poor Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Will they ever catch a break?

This team's already into its second decade of underachieving - 14 straight losing seasons. Will 2007 be any different? Hard to say. But it's not like there isn't any talent there, and that's what us fantasy nerds are interested in.

Start with OF Jason Bay, the Buccos' most serious fantasy threat. The late-blooming Canadian had offseason knee surgery, and that fact coupled with his big drop-off in steals from 2005 to 2006 (21-11) has me a little concerned in that department. However, his power numbers should be just fine, especially with the addition of impact bat Adam LaRoche in the lineup this season. Bay's a solid second- or third-rounder and would be a fine OF to build around.

As for LaRoche, his breakout '05 campaign (.285/32/90) with the Braves made him a valuable trading chip, and the Pirates gave up closer Mike Gonzalez to get him. The first baseman will bat cleanup in front of Bay in the hopes he'll give a pretty stagnant offense some life. It remains to be seen if the still-developing 27-year-old will turn it up a notch at the plate, and it's probably a little premature to say the lefty will hit 40 homers this year playing home games at PNC Park. Still, I don't think similar production to last year is out of the question, which means he's a no-brainer for NL-only leagues and a good backup 1B in mixed leagues.

C Ronny Paulino, who doubled and hit a two-run homer Saturday in a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, is an up-and-coming hitter who deserves a look in deep leagues. 3B Freddy Sanchez opened everybody's eyes by winning the NL batting title (.347) last year, and while he could also be eligible at 2B, which would boost his value, he's pretty much a one-stat wonder. Ditto goes for leadoff man Chris Duffy (26 steals in 84 games last year), who gives you speed but not much else - although we know how valuable speed is in this game.

There are a ton of young arms in the rotation, but will any of them take the leap this year? Lefty and staff "ace" Zach Duke hasn't come along as fast as the Pirates had hoped. Righty Ian Snell's had a solid spring and offers some strikeout potential as a No. 2. And Tom Gorzelanny, another lefty, has a bunch of talent too. It's your guess as to which of them - if any - make the jump in '07.

Looking for a really deep sleeper? First baseman Brad Eldred has been tearing it up in the Grapefruit League this spring, batting .524 with four homers so far. He was 3-for-4 with two doubles Saturday and showed surprising speed and athleticism for a big guy (6-5, 275 pounds). The Pirates even gave him a tryout in right field, since he's blocked by LaRoche at first. The man they call "Big Country" seems to be an all-or-nothing type guy who swings for the fences, but he's kind of intriguing. He'll likely begin the year in the minors since a broken thumb pretty much wiped out his 2006 season, and he still needs some polishing. But if he proves himself to be at least passable in the outfield, we could see him again there soon in the majors, which would put him in a tie with Adam Dunn as the majors' heaviest outfielder. For real.

Some other observations:

-We've already discussed the fantasy outlook for Pirates closer Salomon Torres. He didn't help ease my mind after surrendering a go-ahead, two-run homer in the nint to pinch-hitter Eric Duncan, once considered the Yankees' best prospect. Be ready, Matt Capps.

-It was another up-and-down outing for Yankees lefty Kei Igawa, who ran into some trouble for the second straight game: Three innings, five hits, four strikeouts, no walks, two runs allowed (on Paulino's homer). The positive is he showed some poise and found the strike zone, which will be key once he gets to the Bronx. If he can earn Joe Torre's trust and keep himself in games long enough, the offensive support is there to at least get him some wins.

-A Yankees fan was seen trying to get Alex Rodriguez to sign a copy of his children's book. It's worth nothing the fan appeared to be in his mid-40s and had no children present with him.

Spring report No. 1

TAMPA, Fla. - It wouldn't be a New York Yankees training camp without controversy.

The latest flap is over the "relationship" between Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Don't get any ideas, Red Sox fans - I know A-Rod's recent comments about "not sleeping over Jeter's house" will give you boo-birds some ammo. But we're talking strictly about their friendship, or the perceived lack thereof in the past few years.

There was no sign of hard feelings between the two superstars when the Yankees began full-squad workouts at Legends Field on Tuesday. They were all smiles while taking batting practice together and running through some conditioning drills. And Jeter even responded to Rodriguez's comments a day later in a media session, reinforcing the idea the two aren't as close as they once were but haven't let that affect the clubhouse dynamic or play on the field.

For fantasy purposes, we have to remember these two guys have been lightning rods for controversy and headlines for most of their careers. Everything they say and do, every little happening, is going to be magnified and analyzed in the media spotlight. And while A-Rod's performance did take a slight dip last year as the Big Apple pressure-cooker took its toll, he still finished with top-flight numbers that weren't far off his career averages. And frankly, that's all that matters.

A few other thoughts:

- Johnny Damon played through a lot of pain last year, including a broken bone in his foot. He still managed 25 stolen bases, a three-year high, although he swiped only one bag in the final month of the year. Still, he didn't seem to have much trouble running some sprints (albeit not at full speed) Tuesday. I realize he's 33, but batting at the top of this Yankees lineup is a good way to ward off Father Time, and his ability to run makes him a very useful second or third outfielder.

- I think Kei Igawa is a pretty intriguing player, and judging by the 25-or-so Japanese media members who patiently waited around to talk to him Tuesday, I'm not alone. Projected as the Yankees' fifth starter, the lefty won't go very high on draft day in mixed leagues, if at all, but he should be on your radar. There's a potential for double-digit wins just by virtue of playing for the Yanks (see: Aaron Small, 2005), but of course we really don't know how he'll adjust to the American game. Not a bad guy to tack on at the end of your draft when you're just looking for names you recognize.

- No sign of Bernie Williams at camp ... not that you were going to draft him anyway, but nobody wants to see his Yankees career end with hard feelings.