His decision right now essential comes down to choosing between Orioles OF Adam Jones and some spare parts, or a package that includes Royals 1B Billy Butler. Neither of those guys is going to replace the overall production of an A-Rod anytime soon, but they're both quality keeper prospects who are relatively young (Jones turns 25 in a few weeks; Butler just turned 24 in April) and have room to grow. So who's a better keeper pick?
To start, we should note that the skill sets are quite different. Butler's not known for being fleet of foot (1 career SB in 4 seasons); Jones has swiped 10 bags in each of the past two years (though he has just 3 so far in 2010). Butler's a career .297 hitter with an average currently hovering at .318; Jones seems to have topped out at around .270. Butler's been a much more patient hitter, as evidenced by his 41/37 K/BB ratio this year; Jones has only walked 10 times in 2010 compared to 79 strikeouts. Both have shown 20-homer power (Butler had 21 last year, Jones 19).
This is a pretty tough call. As I told the Dogg, I want to give Butler the edge because he's younger than Jones and yet he's already proven more at the major league level. The ability to hit .300 for a season is a impressive skill, and last year's .301/21/93 stat line speaks volumes about Butler's talents. However, while the average is for real, I wonder if he can improve on those power numbers and jump up to the class of the 30- and 40-homer first basemen that dominate a deep position.
Jones' potential as a five-category contributor are intriguing, but they're still just that, potential. Until I see better results and an improved approach at the plate and more aggression on the basepaths, I have to declare Butler the better keeper prospect by a hair.
Hope that helps, buddy.
Photos by The Associated Press
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