Oswalt's value rises in Philly

Roy Oswalt is now a Philadelphia Phillie as another big-name pitcher has been traded to a contender.

Oswalt's enjoyed a fine 2010 so far. To steal a few telling stats from ESPN's Jayson Stark:

He ranks among the league leaders in quality starts (15 - as many as Ubaldo Jimenez), WHIP (1.11 - better than Chris Carpenter), opponent OPS (.652 - better than Tim Lincecum) and strikeout/walk ratio (3.53 - better than all but a half-dozen pitchers in the league). ...

He's allowing a lower opponent batting average (.229), on-base percentage (.280) and OPS (.652) than he has in any season in his fabulous career. His strikeout ratio (8.4 per 9 IP) is his best since his rookie year.

Yeah, Oswalt's been pretty good. The only thing lacking, from a fantasy perspective: Wins. He's 6-12, which is mostly a function of playing for the lowly Astros. Granted, the Phillies have had their offensive problems this year, but Oswalt should get a big boost in run support this summer. Philly is eighth in the league in runs with 481 - or 117 more than 28th-ranked Houston.

Now, there have been whispers that the 32-year-old was perhaps feeling his age - or that he was just disinterested in pitching for Houston - in recent weeks. But I believe you'll see the same old Oswalt now that he's in the thick of a pennant race. And that's a good thing for his fantasy owners.

Podcasting pleasure

Bradenton Herald colleague and podcasting fool Jason Dill and I are back with another Fantasy Focus baseball podcast for the month of June over at my day job.

Click on the link to hear our take on some impact rookies (Michael Stanton, Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward); what to do with struggling/injured stars (Carlos Pena, Wandy Rodriguez, Josh Beckett, Grady Sizemore) Kendry Morales; and fantasy's best pitcher so far in 2010 (surprise, it's not Tim Lincecum).

Also, listen closely for the souped-up intro by the mighty Metallica ...

Give it up for Ubaldo

The early pick for fantasy's best pitcher in 2010 is Ubaldo Jimenez, and it's not even close.

Before the season you would have guessed Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay or maybe CC Sabathia or Zack Greinke. And while all of those guys have made their share of positive contributions, Jimenez has topped them all.

A record of 10-1. An ERA of 0.78. A 0.90 WHIP. Seventy strikeouts against 26 walks.

The numbers for the Colorado Rockies ace are nearly impeccable. He's this year's Greinke - a guy we knew was good, but never dreamed could be THIS good. Outdueling Lincecum? Leading the majors in wins? Putting up better stats than Halladay? If you saw all that coming, take a bow, because you're smarter than everyone else.

So can Jimenez keep it up? I don't see why not. The 26-year-old is on a roll, and while his ratios are probably due for some regression, there's no reason he can't keep up a Cy Young-caliber season. I wouldn't consider selling high on him unless I were getting an top-flight fantasy ace (Lincecum/Halladay) or an elite hitter in return.


Photo by The Associated Press

CC's near no-no

I was lucky enough to witness CC Sabathia's gem on Saturday at Tropicana Field. Never been anywhere close to seeing a no-hitter in person (though I covered a few Little League softball no-nos back in the day as a cub reporter), so I was pretty into it.

Cruising through 7.

Foiled in the 8th.

Kelly Shoppach had to go and ruin it for me (and CC, I suppose) with four outs to go. But it was a great performance from Sabathia nonetheless, and it got me thinking about the Yankees' ace from a fantasy perspective.

You can make a case that, along with Roy Halladay, CC is the surest thing in fantasy among starting pitchers. Think about it: He's the ace of a squad that's roundly projected to win 90-plus games; he's a veteran pitcher with a marvelous track record and no serious injury history; he hasn't pitched fewer than 230 innings or won fewer than 17 games in the past three years; he hasn't had an ERA higher than 3.40 in the past four years.

I ranked CC No. 24 overall among all fantasy players in my preseason rankings and the fourth pitcher on the list, behind Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke. But Greinke doesn't have nearly the track record of Sabathia or nearly as strong a team, and was placed there mostly based on his upside. You can make a case CC deserves to be as high as No. 3. He's one of the select few pitchers you can always keep in your lineup and never even consider benching.

Peace of mind in fantasy baseball is a beautiful thing. And so are one-hitters.

Inside the Top 50

A few random insights into my Top 50 players list:

Albert Pujols is the consensus No. 1 fantasy pick in almost every rankings, including mine. But I went with Alex Rodriguez at No. 2 over Hanley Ramirez because I think A-Rod still has at least another year of elite production and could rival Pujols' offensive numbers. If you look at what Rodriguez did last year despite the missed games with a hip injury and the fallout from his steroid admission, you could easily make a case this will be a special year for him.

But I'd still be thrilled to build my team around Han-Ram at shortstop, even though his steals totals have been in decline.

Just a personal preference, but I don't like taking pitchers in the first round, which is why Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum are just outside the top 10. And surprise - I like Halladay this year in the NL just slightly more than fantasy favorite Lincecum.

Evan Longoria edges David Wright as my top third baseman. I just can't put Wright's awful 2009 out of my mind, even though he says this year will be different.

Adrian Gonzalez is a tad higher on my list than some others I've seen. That's in the hopes that he gets traded somewhere this season - Boston, perhaps? He'd have hit 50 HRs or more last year if he didn't play home games in Petco Park.

I'm a little down on Ichiro Suzuki this year. Last season's leg troubles and declining SB/runs totals scare me a little.

I have similar concerns about Brian Roberts, who's stolen base numbers have dropped from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past three seasons and who's still recovering from a herniated disk that's kept him out of spring training games so far. But with 2B being such a shallow position he might be a risk I'm willing to take.

Jonathan Broxton is the only closer who cracks the top-50. And I'd still probably avoid taking him (or any closer) that high.

B.J. Upton rounds out the list in the hopes he'll have a bounce-back year at the plate. He could be a steal.

New Face, New Place: Roy Halladay, Phillies

Just when you thought Roy Halladay couldn't get any more valuable ...

Halladay's numbers the past eight years have been out-of-this world, and they came with the Blue Jays in the AL East. Now he's in the NL with the Phillies. No DH. Pitcher batting ninth. Better offense backing him up. Tough park, yes. But also consider:

g Halladay's new home, Citizens Bank Park, was 16th in home runs allowed in 2009. Right behind it at No. 17? Rogers Centre in Toronto.

g The general rule of thumb is to shave at least a half a run off a pitcher's ERA when he moves from the AL to the NL. Halladay's ERAs the past two seasons? 2.79 and 2.78.

g Halladay's career ERA against the NL in interleague play: 2.65.

g He won 17 games last year. On a team that won 75 games.

In other words, there's a whole lot to like about Halladay in 2010. I have zero concerns about his age or durability at this point. I think he'll be out to prove he's baseball's best pitcher as he strives for the first playoff appearance of his career. And I think he could outperform Tim Lincecum as fantasy's top pitcher this year.

Photo by The Associated Press

OK seriously, what's up with Webb?

I've already blogged about Brandon Webb's mysterious shoulder ailment and its fantasy implications. Even though Webb was placed on the DL after one unimpressive start to open 2009, it seemed like the Diamondbacks sinkerballer was making progress in some rehab work.

Now, a setback.

I get concerned when a manager calls an injury "confusing," as Bob Melvin did, or when he doesn't know what the next move will be. And while I appreciate the D'backs' patience in not rushing their ace back too quickly, I'm now extremely concerned about his status for this season.

If Webb is wasting away in your DL slot as you watch contemporaries Tim Lincecum (12 strikeouts Friday) and Johan Santana (10 Ks) light it up, it might be time to consider a major trade for an ace-level pitcher. Two underachieving guys to target: Cole Hamels (0-2, 9.69 ERA, various bumps and bruises) and CC Sabathia (1-1, 4.81), whose values will only rise from this point.

CC to NY

No, we haven't forgotten about baseball. Even in the thick of the fantasy football playoffs, the record contract CC Sabathia is about to sign with the New York Yankees is worth the attention.

Sabathia is obviously one of the premier pitchers in baseball and a major fantasy commodity. But how does the move to the Bronx affect his value?

His numbers last year with the Indians and Brewers were off the charts - 17-10, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 251 Ks. Pretty spectacular stuff right there. But CC doesn't come without some concerns, either. He pitched a massive amount of innings last year, a career-high 253. Historically, he hasn't pitched well at Yankee Stadium (1-4, 8.61 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, as The Sports Network points out), and the Bombers' new home has the same playing field dimensions. And while he feasted on some weak-hitting NL lineups during his blistering late-season stretch with the Brewers last year, he now moves to the dangerous AL East (although he does have pretty good career numbers against the Yanks' division rivals). And of course there's always the pressure-cooker that is New York, which has ruined many a pitcher before.

I think CC will be hard-pressed to match his phenomenal second-half production next year in Pinstripes. However, he's still capable of reaching, say, his 2007 Cy Young totals - 19-7, 3.21 ERA, 209 Ks - which would make him one of the top three fantasy pitchers in the game, right up there with Johan Santana and perhaps Tim Lincecum. For now, let's pencil him in at No. 2, right behind Mr. Santana, and check back in when it's closer to pitchers-and-catchers time.

Price is right, and other young arms

It's understandable if you didn't catch baseball's amateur draft on ESPN2 this week. Not everyone is lucky enough to have absolutely nothing better to do at 2 p.m. on a Thursday.

I, on the other hand, watched most of the first round, and at the risk of giving away too many inside secrets to my fantasy competitors, there's one name I can share with you: David Price, the No. 1 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Price, a 21-year-old left-hander from Vanderbilt, is already a polished product who could be on the fast track to the majors. Of course, just because he was the top player taken doesn't make him can't-miss - anybody still waiting for Paul Wilson's career to pan out? - but Price is a guy to at least file away in your memory banks.


It's always a good idea for fantasy players to familiarize themselves with some of the game's top prospects, even if you're not in a keeper league.

That kind of knowledge can put you ahead of the curve when rookie talent enters your league, and while not every call-up goes on to immediate superstardom, you'll at least have a chance at finding a rare gem who makes an impact.

Let's check in with some pitching prospects whom you may or may not already know:

• Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds: Cincy has been cautious bringing along Bailey, the organization's top prospect in each of the past three seasons and one of the game's elite young arms. The 21-year-old pitched five solid innings in his major-league debut Friday night, and while he's still working on his command, his excellent fastball and curve make him someone who can certainly contribute this season and be a stud by next year.

• Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: Lincecum, a 2006 first-rounder, forced his way into the Giants' starting rotation and hasn't looked back. The righty has had a couple shaky outings, but has also held his own against Roy Oswalt twice and dominated at times. If he's not already owned in your league, there's something wrong.

• Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Hughes already made a splash this year with a near-no-hitter that was ruined by a hamstring pull. Of course, every prospect gets magnified in the fish bowl that is New York, but Hughes is the real deal. The only concern is injuries - he was already going to be sidelined until later this summer, then he rolled an ankle last week while rehabbing. But until we hear otherwise, Hughes could still be the kind of late-season difference-maker you'll want to keep in your DL spot if you can afford to do so.

• Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: Gallardo has a live arm and a four-pitch repertoire. He's currently tearing his way through Triple-A. He led all minor-league pitchers in strikeouts in 2006 (188 in 155 innings) and seems to be knocking on the door of the big leagues. The Brew Crew don't have a spot in their rotation or a pressing need for him right now, but run to the waiver wire whenever this young man gets called up.