Inside the Top 50

A few random insights into my Top 50 players list:

Albert Pujols is the consensus No. 1 fantasy pick in almost every rankings, including mine. But I went with Alex Rodriguez at No. 2 over Hanley Ramirez because I think A-Rod still has at least another year of elite production and could rival Pujols' offensive numbers. If you look at what Rodriguez did last year despite the missed games with a hip injury and the fallout from his steroid admission, you could easily make a case this will be a special year for him.

But I'd still be thrilled to build my team around Han-Ram at shortstop, even though his steals totals have been in decline.

Just a personal preference, but I don't like taking pitchers in the first round, which is why Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum are just outside the top 10. And surprise - I like Halladay this year in the NL just slightly more than fantasy favorite Lincecum.

Evan Longoria edges David Wright as my top third baseman. I just can't put Wright's awful 2009 out of my mind, even though he says this year will be different.

Adrian Gonzalez is a tad higher on my list than some others I've seen. That's in the hopes that he gets traded somewhere this season - Boston, perhaps? He'd have hit 50 HRs or more last year if he didn't play home games in Petco Park.

I'm a little down on Ichiro Suzuki this year. Last season's leg troubles and declining SB/runs totals scare me a little.

I have similar concerns about Brian Roberts, who's stolen base numbers have dropped from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past three seasons and who's still recovering from a herniated disk that's kept him out of spring training games so far. But with 2B being such a shallow position he might be a risk I'm willing to take.

Jonathan Broxton is the only closer who cracks the top-50. And I'd still probably avoid taking him (or any closer) that high.

B.J. Upton rounds out the list in the hopes he'll have a bounce-back year at the plate. He could be a steal.

Spring Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

SARASOTA, Fla. - In just a few short years the Tampa Bay Rays have gone from major league afterthoughts to serious contenders. They've catapulted themselves past established AL East powers like the Blue Jays and Orioles - who I watched the Rays beat 8-3 on Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium - to give the Red Sox and Yankees a run for their money.

A big part of that success has been the talent - specifically the young, homegrown variety - the fanchise has amassed. And all that talent makes Tampa Bay's roster extremely appealing to fantasy owners. Let's have a closer look, shall we?

BREAKOUT PLAYER: Starter Matt Garza is penciled in as the Rays' No. 2 starter behind James Shields, but he may have the best pure stuff on the staff. Though his W-L record (8-12) and ERA (3.92) were disappointments after a stellar 2008 season, keep in mind it was really only his second full season in the big leagues, and he struck out 189 batters in 203 innings. With a little luck and a little more maturity on the mound, the 26-year-old could be in line for a fine season.

BUYER BEWARE: Jason Bartlett had an outstanding 2009, but you have to be a tad skeptical about a player who added nearly 200 points to his OPS from the previous season, raised his batting average 30 points and almost tripled his previous career high in homers (from 5 to 14). I'm not suggesting there's anything fishy going on; I'm just saying we might have seen a once-in-a-career season out of the 29-year-old SS, who's going to cost you a lot more this draft day than he ever has.

ETC: Carl Crawford (top) is a top-10 talent, even if there's a decent chance he gets traded elsewhere by season's end. If that happens, minor league speedster Desmond Jennings instantly becomes a must-own. ... A lot people are down on B.J. Upton, whose stats fell for a second straight year last season after a stellar 2007. But I believe there's still hope for the 25-year-old, who was still recovering from shoulder surgery last year, to be an across-the-board contributor. ... keep an eye on IF/OF Sean Rodriguez, who's tearing it up so far this spring after being acquired in the Scott Kazmir deal and pushing for playing time. ... Evan Longoria is the second-best fantasy 3B in the game behind Alex Rodriguez, plain and simple. ... Carlos Pena is another Ray who could end up getting dealt by year's end, but don't let that scare you away. Can you say contract year? ... The versatile Ben Zobrist demands your attention after an awesome 2009 that came out of nowhere. He's a lot more comfortable this year, as the Bradenton Herald's John Lembo reports, knowing the Rays will find ways to get him in their lineup, whether it's at second base or in right field. But I do have hesitation when it comes to a player who hit 27 homers in one season at age 28 after a total of 23 in more than 1,300 career minor league at bats. ... I've already spelled out how much I like new closer Rafael Soriano this year ... Want strikeouts? Get No. 3 starter David Price. Want an even cheaper source of strikeouts? Get No. 4 Jeff Niemann (above). Want a late-round sleeper with a ton of upside? Get Wade Davis.

Spring report No. 2

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Believe it or not, but the Tampa Bay Devil Rays might be worth watching this year.

They don't get much national respect - not that they've earned it by the way they've played for basically the last decade - but there are a bunch of talented Rays who should be on your fantasy radar. A few were on display in Tampa Bay's spring opener Friday, a 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees at Progress Energy Park.

Carl Crawford is slowly moving up the rotisserie ladder, a speed merchant who's just beginning to realize his power potential at age 25 and figures to be at least a top-10 pick on draft day. Crawford anchors arguably the league's most talented outfield along with Rocco Baldelli in center and Delmon Young in right.

Baldelli, also just 25, is often overlooked for a number of reasons - he missed all of 2005 and part of '06 in a string of bad luck that started with a freak flip-flop incident (don't ask), he's overshadowed by Crawford and, of course, he's a Devil Ray. But Rocco Ballgame is just entering his prime, and he proved last year he's basically back to full strength (.302/16/57 with 10 SBs in 92 games). He'd offer a lot of value as a late-round pick assuming he can stay healthy for a full season.

Young's best known for chucking his bat at an ump in a minor league game next year, but if the prognosticators are right it'll just be a post script on a possible Hall of Fame career. Young - the younger brother of former Detroit Tiger Dmitri Young - is one of the finest all-around talents to enter the game in recent memory and a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. In other words, the kid's got skills. It'll be just his first full season, so don't overpay, but if Young keeps his head in check and can learn some plate discipline (one walk in 126 at-bats, egads!), he'll make an impact.

Speaking of aggressive youngsters, Elijah Dukes is another phenomenal Rays outfield prospect. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Dukes, who played linebacker at Tampa's Hillsborough High (known for producing such talented headcases as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Carl Everett) has had some problems with aggression and finding his inside voice in the past. The massive 22-year-old probably won't make too much of an impact this year - although he's got a good shot at making the team as a fourth outfielder in an effort to keep him under the watchful eye of the big-league club and get his head straight. Don't forget about him, especially in keeper leagues.

There's a lot of talent elsewhere on the roster too. We all know what ace Scott Kazmir is capable of (10 wins, 3.25 ERA, 125 Ks before the '06 All-Star break), and the shoulder inflammation that forced him to shut it down early last year hasn't been a problem this spring. B.J. Upton, not long ago considered one of baseball's top prospects, has fallen out of favor a bit because of defensive shortcomings but will start his first full season as a sort of uber-utility, Chone Figgins clone who will help at least in the steals department. 2B Jorge Cantu was held back by a broken foot last year, but if healthy he could replicate his stellar 2005 power numbers (28 HRs, 117 RBIs), which would hypothetically put him just behind Chase Utley at the position in terms of fantasy value. Japanese veteran 3B Akinori Iwamura, the team's only notable addition this season, provides a solid bat that could make him worth a late flyer. And waiting in the wings is 3B Evan (Don't Call Me Eva) Longoria, the Rays' top draft pick last year and the "best pure hitter" of that year's college prospects, according to Baseball America.

There's a lot of hypotheticals on this team, and of course they don't mean squat if they can't hobble together some semblance of a major league rotation or bullpen behind Kazmir. But the Rays have given themselves some flexibility and a pretty solid foundation to build on. And they can do the same for your team.

Some other observations:

- Andy Pettitte looked good in his first start of the spring and first game appearance since rejoining the Yankees: 20 pitches (15 strikes), two perfect innings. The Bombers are reportedly confident he's healthy (even though health concerns were supposedly the reason they let go of him in the first place), and I'm expecting the 34-year-old lefty to be rejuvenated by the move. He won't win an ERA title now that he's back in the AL, but with gas left in the tank and a dangerous offense backing him up, he's almost a lock to win 15 games.

- Spotted around the ballpark: Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, 1996 World Series hero Jim Leyritz, and Derek Jeter's parents, Charles and Dorothy.