So I'm in a keeper league where I can protect up to five players entering this year's draft. I pretty much hate my team, mostly because it finished in the middle of the pack next last season and because I unfortunately don't really have a no-brainer, elite, can't-give-up-under-any-circumstance guy on my roster. It's not terrible though, and I do have some talent I'd like to hold onto.
Here's the roster I finished the season with last year:
C A.J. Pierzynski
1B Ryan Howard
2B Dan Uggla
SS Miguel Tejada
3B Jorge Cantu
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
OF Delmon Young
OF Lance Berkman
UTIL Jason Bay
UTIL Joey Votto
BENCH Jason Giambi
BENCH Pablo Sandoval
BENCH Cameron Maybin
DL Travis Hafner
P Josh Beckett
P Aaron Harang
P Daisuke Matsuzaka
P Francisco Liriano
P Bobby Jenks
P Mike Gonzalez
P J.P. Howell
P Fernando Rodney
P Javier Vazquez
P Chad Qualls
P Ben Sheets
DL Billy Wagner
So right off the bat: I want no part of Hafner or Wagner whatsoever. No thanks. You killed me last year. Get lost.
Pierzynski, Tejada, Cantu, Giambi, Harang, Gonzalez, Howell, Rodney, Vazquez, Qualls, Sheets ... no. Some worthwhile players there, but not keeper material.
I think Young will have the kind of year he should have had last year (which is why I drafted him in the first place) ... but not a keeper.
I don't belive in keeping a closer, so Jenks is out.
Votto's a nice player, but I've got at least two better first basemen already on the roster. Next.
Sandoval and Maybin are intriguing, up-and-coming players, which is why I picked them up at the end of last season when my team had already tanked ... but I can probably redraft them.
So that leaves me with eight legit choices: Howard, Uggla, Ellsbury, Berkman, Bay, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Liriano.
It's a 10-team league, and if everyone protects five guys, I should be keeping top-50-caliber players, which I believe all those guys are capable of being in 2009. It's just a matter of who I want to build a team around, and if I lean toward offense or pitching.
If I want to tackle it by positional scarcity, Uggla is the only guy who fits the bill as a second baseman. His power potential places him in the upper tier at 2B, but he doesn't run a lick, which hurts. He's probably somewhere around sixth in the 2B rankings - doesn't sound like keeper material to me.
Howard, on the other hand ... we know about his faults (no average, no speed), but he's a potential HR champ. He's in.
Berkman's probably the other safe bet. He's getting up there in age, last year seemed like a career year, and another 18 steals seems like a longshot ... but he's been a consistent producer across the board, and he's still got Carlos Lee batting behind him. Plug him into the utility spot.
So now I've got two big mashers, but what about speed? Ellsbury fits the bill. How many players are capable of 50 steals in 2009? Not that many. He won't give me a ton of power, but he won't embarrass himself at the plate like some other speed-only guys. Let's do it.
Now we come to Bay ... do I keep him too, which leaves me room for only one pitcher? The guy fills the stat sheet, seems to be built to play in Fenway, should be in his prime ... OK, I'm sold.
So now we come to the pitchers, Beckett, Dice-K, Liriano. Dice is nice, but the walks really drive me nuts sometimes. Becks, even with the injury concerns and coming off a "down" year, can strike out just as many without the drama. But the guy that really gets my blood pumping is Liriano, who who showed me that Tommy John surgery is a distant memory with his stellar post-All Star break performance (6-1, 2.47 ERA, 60 to 19 K:BB). Would he go in the top 50 in a regular start-from-scratch draft? Is he a bona fide No. 1 fantasy starter? Probably not. But he offers the most upside of any of the guys I've got, so why not take a chance?
There you have it: Howard, Berkman, Ellsbury, Bay, Liriano. My five keepers - unless I change my mind. Thoughts?
Showing posts with label Delmon Young. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Delmon Young. Show all posts
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Monday, April 02, 2007
Dice-K and impact rookies
Many fantasy owners are targeting Daisuke Matsuzaka in their drafts this year. In fact, you could even say they are "rolling the dice" with Dice-K.
OK, that was an awful pun, but there's some truth to it. Matsuzaka, the Boston Red Sox's high-priced Japanese import, is being treated as a legitimate fantasy ace without ever having thrown a pitch in a meaningful game on American shores.
Fantasy players are often guilty of risking too much on rookies' potential, and last year's astounding class of freshmen pitchers (Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Cain) only spoiled us. Then again, it isn't often a fully mature, 26-year-old "rookie" just pops up on a loaded contender like the Red Sox. By all accounts, Matsuzaka has dominated batters in his homeland with an impressive laundry list of pitches (the mythical "gyroball" may or may not be included), and he seems to possess the talent to be more Hideki Matsui than Hideki Irabu.
That being said, Fenway Park can be an unforgiving place for many young hurlers (just ask Josh Beckett), and the unrelenting lineups of the American League East will throw Matsuzaka no welcoming parties. When it comes to Dice-K's 2007 projections, there would be no shame in a 3.50-4.00 ERA. Fifteen wins could be within reach with a little luck. And he was a strikeout king in Japan, so does 170 Ks sound right for this season? 180? 200? Hard to say.
If Matsuzaka can approach those numbers - and make no mistake, they're All-Star worthy - he'd be at least a top-20 fantasy pitcher, probably top-15. But we're dealing with a lot of unknowns over the course of a season.
There's a handful of elite staff aces out there to build a fantasy team around (Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, etc.), and we probably agree Matsuzaka can't be put in their class yet. Next, there's a large pool of second-tier guys (John Smoltz, John Lackey, Jason Schmidt, Dontrelle Willis, Scott Kazmir and so on) who have proven track records and would also make fine fantasy No. 1s. If the scouts are right, and nothing's lost in translation, Matsuzaka belongs in their class. But for now, however, treat Matsuzaka like a No. 2, and don't pay too much for him.
Some other potential impact rookies for 2007:
• OF Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Bat-tossing incident behind him, this future 30-30 man is best "true" rookie out there and must be drafted as a fourth (or maybe even third) OF in all formats where available.
• 3B Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: Big lefty-swinging kid dominated college ball and then Double A last year, hitting for average and power and forcing way into K.C.'s starting lineup this year.
• SP Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins: Righty tore through his lone season in the minors (243/53 strikeout-to-walk ratio) but will start year in Triple A after a rough spring training; just a Sidney Ponson meltdown away from cracking Twins' thin rotation.
• 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres: Acquired from the Cleveland Indians last fall, fast-rising hitting machine steps into everyday role and will be counted on to supply offense.
• SP Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets: Large (6-foot-7) righty with plus fastball was just announced as Mets' fifth starter, causing spike in his already valuable stock.
• SP Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Perhaps the majors' best pitching prospect, Yanks have whispered Roger Clemens comparisons but are handling him with velvet gloves; Hughes could get called up later this year and make Jered Weaver-type impact.
• OF Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Not to be confused with the Padres pitcher, speedy CF won't help your average much but has 20-20 potential; could be a cheaper version of Mike Cameron .
Other rookies to watch:
• C Chris Iannetta, Rockies
• SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
• SS Brandon Wood, Angels
• 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
• 3B Akinori Iwamura, Devil Rays
• SP Homer Bailey, Reds
• SP Andrew Miller, Tigers
• SP Kei Igawa, Yankees
OK, that was an awful pun, but there's some truth to it. Matsuzaka, the Boston Red Sox's high-priced Japanese import, is being treated as a legitimate fantasy ace without ever having thrown a pitch in a meaningful game on American shores.
Fantasy players are often guilty of risking too much on rookies' potential, and last year's astounding class of freshmen pitchers (Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Cain) only spoiled us. Then again, it isn't often a fully mature, 26-year-old "rookie" just pops up on a loaded contender like the Red Sox. By all accounts, Matsuzaka has dominated batters in his homeland with an impressive laundry list of pitches (the mythical "gyroball" may or may not be included), and he seems to possess the talent to be more Hideki Matsui than Hideki Irabu.
That being said, Fenway Park can be an unforgiving place for many young hurlers (just ask Josh Beckett), and the unrelenting lineups of the American League East will throw Matsuzaka no welcoming parties. When it comes to Dice-K's 2007 projections, there would be no shame in a 3.50-4.00 ERA. Fifteen wins could be within reach with a little luck. And he was a strikeout king in Japan, so does 170 Ks sound right for this season? 180? 200? Hard to say.
If Matsuzaka can approach those numbers - and make no mistake, they're All-Star worthy - he'd be at least a top-20 fantasy pitcher, probably top-15. But we're dealing with a lot of unknowns over the course of a season.
There's a handful of elite staff aces out there to build a fantasy team around (Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, etc.), and we probably agree Matsuzaka can't be put in their class yet. Next, there's a large pool of second-tier guys (John Smoltz, John Lackey, Jason Schmidt, Dontrelle Willis, Scott Kazmir and so on) who have proven track records and would also make fine fantasy No. 1s. If the scouts are right, and nothing's lost in translation, Matsuzaka belongs in their class. But for now, however, treat Matsuzaka like a No. 2, and don't pay too much for him.
Some other potential impact rookies for 2007:
• OF Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Bat-tossing incident behind him, this future 30-30 man is best "true" rookie out there and must be drafted as a fourth (or maybe even third) OF in all formats where available.
• 3B Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: Big lefty-swinging kid dominated college ball and then Double A last year, hitting for average and power and forcing way into K.C.'s starting lineup this year.
• SP Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins: Righty tore through his lone season in the minors (243/53 strikeout-to-walk ratio) but will start year in Triple A after a rough spring training; just a Sidney Ponson meltdown away from cracking Twins' thin rotation.
• 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres: Acquired from the Cleveland Indians last fall, fast-rising hitting machine steps into everyday role and will be counted on to supply offense.
• SP Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets: Large (6-foot-7) righty with plus fastball was just announced as Mets' fifth starter, causing spike in his already valuable stock.
• SP Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Perhaps the majors' best pitching prospect, Yanks have whispered Roger Clemens comparisons but are handling him with velvet gloves; Hughes could get called up later this year and make Jered Weaver-type impact.
• OF Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Not to be confused with the Padres pitcher, speedy CF won't help your average much but has 20-20 potential; could be a cheaper version of Mike Cameron .
Other rookies to watch:
• C Chris Iannetta, Rockies
• SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
• SS Brandon Wood, Angels
• 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
• 3B Akinori Iwamura, Devil Rays
• SP Homer Bailey, Reds
• SP Andrew Miller, Tigers
• SP Kei Igawa, Yankees
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Spring report No. 2
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Believe it or not, but the Tampa Bay Devil Rays might be worth watching this year.
They don't get much national respect - not that they've earned it by the way they've played for basically the last decade - but there are a bunch of talented Rays who should be on your fantasy radar. A few were on display in Tampa Bay's spring opener Friday, a 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees at Progress Energy Park.
Carl Crawford is slowly moving up the rotisserie ladder, a speed merchant who's just beginning to realize his power potential at age 25 and figures to be at least a top-10 pick on draft day. Crawford anchors arguably the league's most talented outfield along with Rocco Baldelli in center and Delmon Young in right.
Baldelli, also just 25, is often overlooked for a number of reasons - he missed all of 2005 and part of '06 in a string of bad luck that started with a freak flip-flop incident (don't ask), he's overshadowed by Crawford and, of course, he's a Devil Ray. But Rocco Ballgame is just entering his prime, and he proved last year he's basically back to full strength (.302/16/57 with 10 SBs in 92 games). He'd offer a lot of value as a late-round pick assuming he can stay healthy for a full season.
Young's best known for chucking his bat at an ump in a minor league game next year, but if the prognosticators are right it'll just be a post script on a possible Hall of Fame career. Young - the younger brother of former Detroit Tiger Dmitri Young - is one of the finest all-around talents to enter the game in recent memory and a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. In other words, the kid's got skills. It'll be just his first full season, so don't overpay, but if Young keeps his head in check and can learn some plate discipline (one walk in 126 at-bats, egads!), he'll make an impact.
Speaking of aggressive youngsters, Elijah Dukes is another phenomenal Rays outfield prospect. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Dukes, who played linebacker at Tampa's Hillsborough High (known for producing such talented headcases as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Carl Everett) has had some problems with aggression and finding his inside voice in the past. The massive 22-year-old probably won't make too much of an impact this year - although he's got a good shot at making the team as a fourth outfielder in an effort to keep him under the watchful eye of the big-league club and get his head straight. Don't forget about him, especially in keeper leagues.
There's a lot of talent elsewhere on the roster too. We all know what ace Scott Kazmir is capable of (10 wins, 3.25 ERA, 125 Ks before the '06 All-Star break), and the shoulder inflammation that forced him to shut it down early last year hasn't been a problem this spring. B.J. Upton, not long ago considered one of baseball's top prospects, has fallen out of favor a bit because of defensive shortcomings but will start his first full season as a sort of uber-utility, Chone Figgins clone who will help at least in the steals department. 2B Jorge Cantu was held back by a broken foot last year, but if healthy he could replicate his stellar 2005 power numbers (28 HRs, 117 RBIs), which would hypothetically put him just behind Chase Utley at the position in terms of fantasy value. Japanese veteran 3B Akinori Iwamura, the team's only notable addition this season, provides a solid bat that could make him worth a late flyer. And waiting in the wings is 3B Evan (Don't Call Me Eva) Longoria, the Rays' top draft pick last year and the "best pure hitter" of that year's college prospects, according to Baseball America.
There's a lot of hypotheticals on this team, and of course they don't mean squat if they can't hobble together some semblance of a major league rotation or bullpen behind Kazmir. But the Rays have given themselves some flexibility and a pretty solid foundation to build on. And they can do the same for your team.
Some other observations:
- Andy Pettitte looked good in his first start of the spring and first game appearance since rejoining the Yankees: 20 pitches (15 strikes), two perfect innings. The Bombers are reportedly confident he's healthy (even though health concerns were supposedly the reason they let go of him in the first place), and I'm expecting the 34-year-old lefty to be rejuvenated by the move. He won't win an ERA title now that he's back in the AL, but with gas left in the tank and a dangerous offense backing him up, he's almost a lock to win 15 games.
- Spotted around the ballpark: Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, 1996 World Series hero Jim Leyritz, and Derek Jeter's parents, Charles and Dorothy.
They don't get much national respect - not that they've earned it by the way they've played for basically the last decade - but there are a bunch of talented Rays who should be on your fantasy radar. A few were on display in Tampa Bay's spring opener Friday, a 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees at Progress Energy Park.
Carl Crawford is slowly moving up the rotisserie ladder, a speed merchant who's just beginning to realize his power potential at age 25 and figures to be at least a top-10 pick on draft day. Crawford anchors arguably the league's most talented outfield along with Rocco Baldelli in center and Delmon Young in right.
Baldelli, also just 25, is often overlooked for a number of reasons - he missed all of 2005 and part of '06 in a string of bad luck that started with a freak flip-flop incident (don't ask), he's overshadowed by Crawford and, of course, he's a Devil Ray. But Rocco Ballgame is just entering his prime, and he proved last year he's basically back to full strength (.302/16/57 with 10 SBs in 92 games). He'd offer a lot of value as a late-round pick assuming he can stay healthy for a full season.
Young's best known for chucking his bat at an ump in a minor league game next year, but if the prognosticators are right it'll just be a post script on a possible Hall of Fame career. Young - the younger brother of former Detroit Tiger Dmitri Young - is one of the finest all-around talents to enter the game in recent memory and a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. In other words, the kid's got skills. It'll be just his first full season, so don't overpay, but if Young keeps his head in check and can learn some plate discipline (one walk in 126 at-bats, egads!), he'll make an impact.
Speaking of aggressive youngsters, Elijah Dukes is another phenomenal Rays outfield prospect. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Dukes, who played linebacker at Tampa's Hillsborough High (known for producing such talented headcases as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Carl Everett) has had some problems with aggression and finding his inside voice in the past. The massive 22-year-old probably won't make too much of an impact this year - although he's got a good shot at making the team as a fourth outfielder in an effort to keep him under the watchful eye of the big-league club and get his head straight. Don't forget about him, especially in keeper leagues.
There's a lot of talent elsewhere on the roster too. We all know what ace Scott Kazmir is capable of (10 wins, 3.25 ERA, 125 Ks before the '06 All-Star break), and the shoulder inflammation that forced him to shut it down early last year hasn't been a problem this spring. B.J. Upton, not long ago considered one of baseball's top prospects, has fallen out of favor a bit because of defensive shortcomings but will start his first full season as a sort of uber-utility, Chone Figgins clone who will help at least in the steals department. 2B Jorge Cantu was held back by a broken foot last year, but if healthy he could replicate his stellar 2005 power numbers (28 HRs, 117 RBIs), which would hypothetically put him just behind Chase Utley at the position in terms of fantasy value. Japanese veteran 3B Akinori Iwamura, the team's only notable addition this season, provides a solid bat that could make him worth a late flyer. And waiting in the wings is 3B Evan (Don't Call Me Eva) Longoria, the Rays' top draft pick last year and the "best pure hitter" of that year's college prospects, according to Baseball America.
There's a lot of hypotheticals on this team, and of course they don't mean squat if they can't hobble together some semblance of a major league rotation or bullpen behind Kazmir. But the Rays have given themselves some flexibility and a pretty solid foundation to build on. And they can do the same for your team.
Some other observations:
- Andy Pettitte looked good in his first start of the spring and first game appearance since rejoining the Yankees: 20 pitches (15 strikes), two perfect innings. The Bombers are reportedly confident he's healthy (even though health concerns were supposedly the reason they let go of him in the first place), and I'm expecting the 34-year-old lefty to be rejuvenated by the move. He won't win an ERA title now that he's back in the AL, but with gas left in the tank and a dangerous offense backing him up, he's almost a lock to win 15 games.
- Spotted around the ballpark: Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, 1996 World Series hero Jim Leyritz, and Derek Jeter's parents, Charles and Dorothy.
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