The great keeper debate

So I'm in a keeper league where I can protect up to five players entering this year's draft. I pretty much hate my team, mostly because it finished in the middle of the pack next last season and because I unfortunately don't really have a no-brainer, elite, can't-give-up-under-any-circumstance guy on my roster. It's not terrible though, and I do have some talent I'd like to hold onto.

Here's the roster I finished the season with last year:

C A.J. Pierzynski
1B Ryan Howard
2B Dan Uggla
SS Miguel Tejada
3B Jorge Cantu
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
OF Delmon Young
OF Lance Berkman
UTIL Jason Bay
UTIL Joey Votto
BENCH Jason Giambi
BENCH Pablo Sandoval
BENCH Cameron Maybin
DL Travis Hafner

P Josh Beckett
P Aaron Harang
P Daisuke Matsuzaka
P Francisco Liriano
P Bobby Jenks
P Mike Gonzalez
P J.P. Howell
P Fernando Rodney
P Javier Vazquez
P Chad Qualls
P Ben Sheets
DL Billy Wagner

So right off the bat: I want no part of Hafner or Wagner whatsoever. No thanks. You killed me last year. Get lost.

Pierzynski, Tejada, Cantu, Giambi, Harang, Gonzalez, Howell, Rodney, Vazquez, Qualls, Sheets ... no. Some worthwhile players there, but not keeper material.

I think Young will have the kind of year he should have had last year (which is why I drafted him in the first place) ... but not a keeper.

I don't belive in keeping a closer, so Jenks is out.

Votto's a nice player, but I've got at least two better first basemen already on the roster. Next.

Sandoval and Maybin are intriguing, up-and-coming players, which is why I picked them up at the end of last season when my team had already tanked ... but I can probably redraft them.

So that leaves me with eight legit choices: Howard, Uggla, Ellsbury, Berkman, Bay, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Liriano.

It's a 10-team league, and if everyone protects five guys, I should be keeping top-50-caliber players, which I believe all those guys are capable of being in 2009. It's just a matter of who I want to build a team around, and if I lean toward offense or pitching.

If I want to tackle it by positional scarcity, Uggla is the only guy who fits the bill as a second baseman. His power potential places him in the upper tier at 2B, but he doesn't run a lick, which hurts. He's probably somewhere around sixth in the 2B rankings - doesn't sound like keeper material to me.

Howard, on the other hand ... we know about his faults (no average, no speed), but he's a potential HR champ. He's in.

Berkman's probably the other safe bet. He's getting up there in age, last year seemed like a career year, and another 18 steals seems like a longshot ... but he's been a consistent producer across the board, and he's still got Carlos Lee batting behind him. Plug him into the utility spot.

So now I've got two big mashers, but what about speed? Ellsbury fits the bill. How many players are capable of 50 steals in 2009? Not that many. He won't give me a ton of power, but he won't embarrass himself at the plate like some other speed-only guys. Let's do it.

Now we come to Bay ... do I keep him too, which leaves me room for only one pitcher? The guy fills the stat sheet, seems to be built to play in Fenway, should be in his prime ... OK, I'm sold.

So now we come to the pitchers, Beckett, Dice-K, Liriano. Dice is nice, but the walks really drive me nuts sometimes. Becks, even with the injury concerns and coming off a "down" year, can strike out just as many without the drama. But the guy that really gets my blood pumping is Liriano, who who showed me that Tommy John surgery is a distant memory with his stellar post-All Star break performance (6-1, 2.47 ERA, 60 to 19 K:BB). Would he go in the top 50 in a regular start-from-scratch draft? Is he a bona fide No. 1 fantasy starter? Probably not. But he offers the most upside of any of the guys I've got, so why not take a chance?

There you have it: Howard, Berkman, Ellsbury, Bay, Liriano. My five keepers - unless I change my mind. Thoughts?

The Class of 2008

It's hard to believe Joba Chamberlain is technically a rookie. Seems like we've been debating the New York Yankee's future (starter or reliever?), his antics on the mound (youthful exuberance or bad sportsmanship?) and his place in pinstriped lore (great Yankee or greatest Yankee?) for years.

Despite the plethora of back-page headlines and sports talk radio rants devoted to him, it's easy to forget the guy hasn't yet pitched 50 big league innings and has only begun reaching his potential. Still, the mastery he's already shown as a setup man (2.28 ERA, 12 holds, more than a strikeout an inning) has been valuable in the fantasy game, and his stock only rises as the Yanks continue converting him into a starter.

Chamberlain's just one of many in the Class of 2008 who are already helping fantasy teams or who will be in the near future:

HERE TO STAY

Evan Longoria already looks like a polished pro and is a cornerstone of the surprising Tampa Bay Rays at third base. When he figures out how to hit lefties (.154 average) and cuts down on his strikeouts (44 Ks vs. 19 walks) he'll enter David Wright territory.

Joey Votto has the Cincinnati Reds' first base job all to himself now that Scott Hatteberg is out of the picture. And rightfully so - double-digit homers and an average around .300 are more than adequate from a corner infielder.

Reds center fielder Jay Bruce may have an even higher ceiling than Votto in the long run, as he showed in his debut last week (3-for-3, two RBIs, stolen base, two runs scored). There's a reason he's baseball's top prospect.

If you didn't know who Geovany Soto was at the start of the year, you do now that the Chicago Cubs rookie leads all major league catchers in RBIs.

Jacoby Ellsbury is well on his way to a 40-steal campaign, but the Boston Red Sox outfielder is holding his own at the plate, which justifies a starting fantasy spot.

MAKING CONTRIBUTIONS

St. Louis Cardinals reliever Chris Perez has been virtually unhittable since his call-up two weeks ago and has yet to allow a run. It's only a matter of time before the righty is closing out games, so keeper leaguers and Ryan Franklin/Jason Isringhausen owners take note.

Clayton Kershaw just turned 20 years old, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have already put him in their rotation, at least for the time being. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound lefty will experience some hiccups, but his reputation as a strikeout artist can't be overlooked.

Speaking of hiccups, Johnny Cueto's had a few lately for the Reds after setting the league on fire his first few starts. Relegate him to your bench for now, but don't give up on his long-term potential.

Injuries opened a spot for lefty Aaron Laffey in the Cleveland Indians' rotation, but effective pitching (1.59 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) is keeping him there.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have used righty Max Scherzer as both a starter and a reliever. Either way, he's getting batters out (29 Ks in 25 2/3 innings, 2.10 ERA).

Jair Jurrjens fills the Atlanta Braves' quota of Curacao natives now that Andruw Jones is gone, but he's also given them a more-than-capable (5-3, 2.86 ERA) starting pitcher.

Former Red Sox farmhand David Murphy is one of several Texas Rangers mashing the cover off the ball (.291, 21 RBIs in May).

COMING SOON

Rays lefty David Price, the top overall pick in last year's draft, recently outpitched Pedro Martinez when the New York Mets star was making a rehab start in a Single-A game. The polished Price could be on the fast track to a big league call-up by the end of the year.

Switch-hitting third baseman/outfielder Chase Headley is tearing up Triple-A pitching and could make a cameo any day now for the sinking San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers, plagued by injuries and a lack of offense, could soon turn to third base prospect Andy LaRoche (career .900 OPS in the minors) for some help

Photos by The Associated Press