Pujols for Howard? In reality?

How's this for a blockbuster: Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard?

This kind of deal gets made all the time in fantasy circles. It's a fairly even swap of slugging first basemen: Howard probably has a little more homer potential, while Pujols is a more even contributor across the board. You'll often see a trade like this get made because one guy is a Phillies or Cardinals fan and really wants his favorite player on his squad.

But could the players ever get swapped for one another in real life? Maybe, according to a report by ESPN, although it seems unlikely. I imagine most major league clubs often take stock of their rosters and try to imagine what it would take for another team to pry away a superstar like Howard - and that's exactly what the Phillies were doing with this hypothetical deal. Of course, they seemingly didn't intend for this hypothetical deal to become public - GM Ruben Amaro called the report "lies," "ridiculous," and "irresponsible." So there.

Pujols for Howard? Not happening in the real world. Definitely possible in a league near you - and that's what makes fantasy so great.

The great keeper debate

My primary baseball league the past few years has been one run by some of my newsroom cohorts. It's a 10-team keeper league with a regular snake draft, and it's pretty competitive (I've finished in the bottom half the past two years, much to everyone else's delight).

With the deadline for keepers rapidly approaching - each team must designate 5 players they'll "keep" from last year's squad - I thought I'd take you through my thought process.

Luckily it wasn't a very tough decision, but that's because my team last year just wasn't that talented. While some of my competitors had as many as 10 or more players they could legitimately make a case for keeping, I narrowed my list down to seven.

But first, some guys who didn't make the cut: Dan Uggla, Elvis Andrus, Alex Rios, Franklin Gutierrez, Alcides Escobar, Nolan Reimold, Scott Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco, Rick Porcello, Joba Chamberlain. All useful players, but not really keeper material in this format. We've never really had a "long-term" focus in this league; the way I see it, our keepers should more or less represent the top 50 (5 keepers a team, 10 teams) fantasy players. None of those guys qualify.

Next, the no-brainers: Ryan Howard, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Hernandez. Howard is a top-10 talent and my big thumper. I've come to love Ellsbury, one of the few players capable of single-handedly keeping you afloat in steals while not killing you in other categories. And King Felix is, in my mind, a potential top-5 starter this year.

Now, the tough decisions. I've got two keeper spots left for four players: Ryan Zimmerman, Jason Bay, Josh Beckett, Matt Wieters.

Wieters is obviously a great long-term keeper, as he has a real chance to develop into one of the game's top 2 catchers (along with Joe Mauer). But is he top-2 this year? Is he a top-50 player this year? I think not. Keeping Wieters will put me at a disadvantage. Sorry Matt.

How about Zimmerman? Last year's numbers (.292/33/106) were great, and third base is fairly weak this year. A slight improvement (far from impossible for a 25-year-old) and he could surpass contemporaries Evan Longoria and David Wright and finish behind only Alex Rodriguez among fantasy second baseman. I'm keeping him.

So that leaves Beckett and Bay for one spot. Beckett can be a top-15 pitcher this year if all goes well. Bay can be a top-15 OF. In a perfect world, I'd have a more sure thing to choose from, but these guys are the best I've got. I don't foresee a lot of pitchers being kept this year, which should leave the redraft pretty flush with them. Outfielders capable of 30 homers and 30 steals? Not so much. Bay it is.

So there you have it. Ryan Howard, Felix Hernandez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Zimmerman, Jason Bay. Let's go get em, guys.

The great keeper debate

So I'm in a keeper league where I can protect up to five players entering this year's draft. I pretty much hate my team, mostly because it finished in the middle of the pack next last season and because I unfortunately don't really have a no-brainer, elite, can't-give-up-under-any-circumstance guy on my roster. It's not terrible though, and I do have some talent I'd like to hold onto.

Here's the roster I finished the season with last year:

C A.J. Pierzynski
1B Ryan Howard
2B Dan Uggla
SS Miguel Tejada
3B Jorge Cantu
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
OF Delmon Young
OF Lance Berkman
UTIL Jason Bay
UTIL Joey Votto
BENCH Jason Giambi
BENCH Pablo Sandoval
BENCH Cameron Maybin
DL Travis Hafner

P Josh Beckett
P Aaron Harang
P Daisuke Matsuzaka
P Francisco Liriano
P Bobby Jenks
P Mike Gonzalez
P J.P. Howell
P Fernando Rodney
P Javier Vazquez
P Chad Qualls
P Ben Sheets
DL Billy Wagner

So right off the bat: I want no part of Hafner or Wagner whatsoever. No thanks. You killed me last year. Get lost.

Pierzynski, Tejada, Cantu, Giambi, Harang, Gonzalez, Howell, Rodney, Vazquez, Qualls, Sheets ... no. Some worthwhile players there, but not keeper material.

I think Young will have the kind of year he should have had last year (which is why I drafted him in the first place) ... but not a keeper.

I don't belive in keeping a closer, so Jenks is out.

Votto's a nice player, but I've got at least two better first basemen already on the roster. Next.

Sandoval and Maybin are intriguing, up-and-coming players, which is why I picked them up at the end of last season when my team had already tanked ... but I can probably redraft them.

So that leaves me with eight legit choices: Howard, Uggla, Ellsbury, Berkman, Bay, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Liriano.

It's a 10-team league, and if everyone protects five guys, I should be keeping top-50-caliber players, which I believe all those guys are capable of being in 2009. It's just a matter of who I want to build a team around, and if I lean toward offense or pitching.

If I want to tackle it by positional scarcity, Uggla is the only guy who fits the bill as a second baseman. His power potential places him in the upper tier at 2B, but he doesn't run a lick, which hurts. He's probably somewhere around sixth in the 2B rankings - doesn't sound like keeper material to me.

Howard, on the other hand ... we know about his faults (no average, no speed), but he's a potential HR champ. He's in.

Berkman's probably the other safe bet. He's getting up there in age, last year seemed like a career year, and another 18 steals seems like a longshot ... but he's been a consistent producer across the board, and he's still got Carlos Lee batting behind him. Plug him into the utility spot.

So now I've got two big mashers, but what about speed? Ellsbury fits the bill. How many players are capable of 50 steals in 2009? Not that many. He won't give me a ton of power, but he won't embarrass himself at the plate like some other speed-only guys. Let's do it.

Now we come to Bay ... do I keep him too, which leaves me room for only one pitcher? The guy fills the stat sheet, seems to be built to play in Fenway, should be in his prime ... OK, I'm sold.

So now we come to the pitchers, Beckett, Dice-K, Liriano. Dice is nice, but the walks really drive me nuts sometimes. Becks, even with the injury concerns and coming off a "down" year, can strike out just as many without the drama. But the guy that really gets my blood pumping is Liriano, who who showed me that Tommy John surgery is a distant memory with his stellar post-All Star break performance (6-1, 2.47 ERA, 60 to 19 K:BB). Would he go in the top 50 in a regular start-from-scratch draft? Is he a bona fide No. 1 fantasy starter? Probably not. But he offers the most upside of any of the guys I've got, so why not take a chance?

There you have it: Howard, Berkman, Ellsbury, Bay, Liriano. My five keepers - unless I change my mind. Thoughts?

I'm buying Ryan Howard (and a Philly cheesesteak)

Ryan Howard is trying to boldly go where no hitter has ever gone before: 200 strikeouts in a season.

Adam Dunn has tried his hardest. So have Jim Thome, Jose Hernandez and the late Bobby Bonds. Howard came oh-so-close last year, reaching a new single-season benchmark with 199 whiffs. But 2008 could be the year he achieves the impossible dream - the Philadelphia Phillies slugger is on pace to strike out a mind-blowing 226 times.

Now, I don't mean to get on the big guy's case. I kid because I love. Howard's homers are as beautiful as any rainbow or shooting star nature has ever produced. I won't forget the first time I witnessed Howard go yard firsthand - May 17, 2005, at Citizen's Bank Park during his rookie season, a beefy solo shot as delicious as the Philly cheesesteak I enjoyed at the legendary Pat's Steaks (never Geno's!) after the game. Philly people know what I'm talking about ...



Anyway, I bring up Howard's Ks only because they're a good partial explanation for his .188 average, which probably keeps his owners up at night. They drafted Howard for his homers, of course (and he does have nine of those), but they were at least expecting him to bat his weight this season. They're probably extremely frustrated - and that's where you come in.

Now is a great time to make an offer for Howard. He won't win a batting title (that .313 average from 2006 is looking more and more like a mirage every day), but he's better than this. Remember, Howard hit .221 last April and .225 last May before getting his average up to a respectable .268 for the season. Oh, and he hit 47 homers along the way. Could your team use some of those?

Howard is just one of several great buy-low candidates. Here are some more:

g Justin Verlander has pitched a little better than his 1-7 record indicates. His strikeout rate is way down (about five Ks per nine innings, compared to eight K/9 last year), which has to be a concern. But Verlander's also had terrible run support - he's only getting about 2.3 runs per nine innings from the Detroit Tigers, one of the lowest marks of all the league's starters. If you believe the disappointing Tigers' bats will eventually heat up, good things could be on the way for their ace.

g Victor Martinez is homerless, a troubling fact for anyone who made the Cleveland Indians star their starting catcher. Part of the reason is he's putting the ball on the ground too much - a 2.5 ground ball/fly ball ratio. Last year, when he went deep 25 times, that ratio was down to 1.23. His batting average has been just fine (.320 through Saturday), so things should start to even out, and the round-trippers will come.

g Eric Byrnes vaulted up the draft boards after last year's .286, 21-homer, 50-steal campaign, but those who paid a high price for him this season are probably wishing more of his TV appearances came in the highlights and less in the pregame nonsense. He's batting .222 with just four homers and four steals, a fact partly attributed to sore legs that have bothered him for much of the year. Byrnes reports they're getting better, however, which should help boost his all-around game. It might not cost you much right now to get a possible 20-20 (or better) guy.

Spring Report No. 5

BRADENTON, Fla. - Ryan Howard owners can breathe easy.

Howard, suffering through a 1-for-23 slump, broke out in a huge way Thursday by sending a Shawn Chacon offering an estimated 420 feet for a towering home run in the Phillies' 5-5 tie with the Pirates at McKechnie Field.

Howard's been struggling to find his groove this spring, and a strained thigh hasn't helped him reach his comfort level. The hefty lefty is dealing with giant expectations this year, making his disappointing March all the more discouraging.

I warned in a column earlier this year that Howard might be a bust in 2007. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I still think Howard is capable of another monster season, but those expecting him to just unleash 70 homers season might need to slow down. The league will adjust to him, he'll get walked, and he'll have his slumps, as we've seen this spring.

That being said, Thursday's homer was a reminder of Howard's tremendous power potential, and he's sure to launch his fair share of balls out of Citizen's Bank Park this season. I'm a little more concerned about the dude batting behind him, Pat Burrell, a guy Philly fans love to hate. Burrell was experimenting with contact lenses earlier this spring after some poor results on a vision test, and his career average .258 average isn't exactly ideal. The 30-year-old OF did homer immediately after Howard on Thursday, and despite the crappy average he's still a good bet for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, so all hope is not lost.

Some other observations from Thursday's game:

-Ronny Paulino continues to impress. The Pittsburgh catcher stroked a double, and he's now batting .500 this spring. I know you can't read a lot into what happens in Grapefruit League games, but when you consider' Paulino's hot spring along with his breakout 2006, he's clearly a catcher on the rise. Consider him a No. 2 guy for now in mixed leagues and a very nice NL-only option; we may have to move him into the top 10 catchers for 2008 as some of the old stand-bys begin to fade away.

-It was a scary moment when Chacon took a line drive from the Phils' Michael Bourn off the chest and glove in the first inning. It's hard to understand exactly how fast the ball travels back at a pitcher on plays like that unless you see it live, and from our vantage point next to the visiting dugout, almost at field level (thanks to my pal Doug for the sweet ticket), it was an eye-opener.

-Spotted in the stands: Dallas Green, former Phillies manager and owner of one of the coolest names in baseball.