Future fantasy all-stars

Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN Fantasy wrote a great piece on what a 2014 fantasy all-star squad might look like.

It's pretty fascinating to think about which of today's players might have longevity and be top fantasy producers four years from now. It's also fun to look back at past predictions - Cockcroft's all-2007 list, written in 2004, included Marcus Giles, Rocco Baldelli and Mark Prior; his all-2012 list, done in 2008, had Russell Martin at catcher and Brandon Webb, Scott Kazmir and Jake Peavy in the rotation. Not looking so good right now.

Still, it's a pretty cool thought experiment, and it's particularly helpful for anyone competing in a keeper league. I just traded for Matt Wieters in mine, and it's good to see Cockcroft, and others, still predicting the Orioles catcher to be an all-star years from now despite this year's disappointing campaign thus far.

Draft Day primer

It's a popular weekend for fantasy drafts with the MLB season slated to get under way Sunday night with another blood feud at Fenway Park. For those of you making your final draft preparations, a few tips:

1. Start with a list of player rankings. It can be from any source you trust: ESPN.com, SI.com, or one of those outrageously priced magazines on newsstands. Most will provide a list to suit your needs - top 300 (or more) overall, top NL-only players, etc. - as well as lists broken down by position.

2. Ideally, you've been doing some thinking/research/reading of this blog on your own up until this point and have some of your own opinions about who you like/dislike. I suggest using the prepared lists as a basis and reworking them according to your preferences. That way you don't have to start from scratch, but you can move Alex Rodriguez up or down a few spots depending on what you think of him.

3. I also find it helpful to group players into tiers by delineating them after they've been ranked by position. For instance, let's say your catcher rankings look something like this:

1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Victor Martinez
4. Matt Wieters
5. Miguel Montero
6. Jorge Posada

You probably consider Mauer an "elite" catcher, far and away the best on the list. So you draw a horizontal line below his name to mark him off as the top tier. Then, let's say you think McCann and Martinez are more or less equal, so you mark them off as the next tier with a line under Martinez's name. And you put Wieters, Montero and Posada in the same tier after that.

1. Joe Mauer
______________
2. Brian McCann
3. Victor Martinez
______________

4. Matt Wieters
5. Miguel Montero
6. Jorge Posada

This way, as you get further into your draft, you can easily see the availability of players grouped in the same tier. For instance, maybe Wieters and Posada have already been drafted but Montero's still on the board, and there's a drop-off after that to another tier of guys you really aren't interested in. It's probably a good time to call Montero's name with your next pick. Seems simple, but it can really help you decide when it's OK to pass on a certain position and when to pull the trigger.

4. Know your league! Make sure you bring a paper with slots for every roster slot you'll need to fill. If your league starts an extra corner outfielder, you'll be much more pressed to grab a big-hitting 1B or 3B in the earlier rounds. If you need to carry a certain number of relievers or count WHIP as one of your statistics, you'll want to do some extra reading to identify quality set-up guys.

5. Do the same with your leaguemates' squads and jot down their picks by position as they make them, at least in the earlier rounds. Let's say I'm in a 10-team league, and I know eight of the other teams already have a SS. There are two SS left on the board that I'd be comfortable with as my starter, so I can probably afford to skip that position with my next pick, take another guy, and grab a SS on the next go-around.

6. Have fun. Make fun of other people's picks. And let them laugh at yours. But don't let them dissuade you from building your team the way you want to, because when it comes down to it, nobody knows anything. Nobody thought Zack Greinke would be so good last year. Nobody thought Chien-Ming Wang would be so bad. But it happens. Fantasy baseball isn't a computer program; you can't just plug names into a roster and get an expected output. It's unpredictable. It takes skill, but also a lot of luck. And don't forget it's supposed to be fun.

Jump on Jason Heyward

It's easy to get caught up in the hype about fantasy baseball prospects. Matt Wieters was supposed to be the second coming of Yogi Berra last year, and while his rookie season was solid, particularly in the second half, he didn't quite revolutionize the catching position.

Sometimes it's best to use caution when trying to project stats for rookies or build your fantasy team around them. But sometimes there are prospects that are simply too enticing to ignore.

Jason Heyward is one of those prospects.

Heyward, Baseball America's minor league player of the year in 2009 and top prospect for this season, has been tearing up the Grapefruit League (.366/.500/.537). He's been turning heads with his power - his 6-foot-4, 245-pound frame doesn't hurt, either - to the point the Braves have considered adding special nets at their spring park to protect the parked cars from getting smashed by his monster home run shots.

Heyward's forced his way into an Opening Day starting spot in right field for Atlanta - not bad for a 20-year-old. And the Braves have a pretty good track record of knowing when a top prospect is ready for the big show - remember Andruw Jones at age 19 and Chipper Jones at 21?

Sure, Heyward doesn't have much minor league seasoning under his belt, only having been in the Braves' system since 2007. But his career .899 OPS on the farm is a great sign, and the rave reviews and Opening Day roster spot are too good to ignore. I'd be more than happy to have Heyward as my fourth or fifth outfielder this year.

- Photo by The Associated Press

The great keeper debate

My primary baseball league the past few years has been one run by some of my newsroom cohorts. It's a 10-team keeper league with a regular snake draft, and it's pretty competitive (I've finished in the bottom half the past two years, much to everyone else's delight).

With the deadline for keepers rapidly approaching - each team must designate 5 players they'll "keep" from last year's squad - I thought I'd take you through my thought process.

Luckily it wasn't a very tough decision, but that's because my team last year just wasn't that talented. While some of my competitors had as many as 10 or more players they could legitimately make a case for keeping, I narrowed my list down to seven.

But first, some guys who didn't make the cut: Dan Uggla, Elvis Andrus, Alex Rios, Franklin Gutierrez, Alcides Escobar, Nolan Reimold, Scott Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco, Rick Porcello, Joba Chamberlain. All useful players, but not really keeper material in this format. We've never really had a "long-term" focus in this league; the way I see it, our keepers should more or less represent the top 50 (5 keepers a team, 10 teams) fantasy players. None of those guys qualify.

Next, the no-brainers: Ryan Howard, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Hernandez. Howard is a top-10 talent and my big thumper. I've come to love Ellsbury, one of the few players capable of single-handedly keeping you afloat in steals while not killing you in other categories. And King Felix is, in my mind, a potential top-5 starter this year.

Now, the tough decisions. I've got two keeper spots left for four players: Ryan Zimmerman, Jason Bay, Josh Beckett, Matt Wieters.

Wieters is obviously a great long-term keeper, as he has a real chance to develop into one of the game's top 2 catchers (along with Joe Mauer). But is he top-2 this year? Is he a top-50 player this year? I think not. Keeping Wieters will put me at a disadvantage. Sorry Matt.

How about Zimmerman? Last year's numbers (.292/33/106) were great, and third base is fairly weak this year. A slight improvement (far from impossible for a 25-year-old) and he could surpass contemporaries Evan Longoria and David Wright and finish behind only Alex Rodriguez among fantasy second baseman. I'm keeping him.

So that leaves Beckett and Bay for one spot. Beckett can be a top-15 pitcher this year if all goes well. Bay can be a top-15 OF. In a perfect world, I'd have a more sure thing to choose from, but these guys are the best I've got. I don't foresee a lot of pitchers being kept this year, which should leave the redraft pretty flush with them. Outfielders capable of 30 homers and 30 steals? Not so much. Bay it is.

So there you have it. Ryan Howard, Felix Hernandez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Zimmerman, Jason Bay. Let's go get em, guys.

Spring preview: Baltimore Orioles

SARASOTA, Fla. - Greetings from the new spring training home of the Baltimore Orioles! I was lucky enough to check out the O's first full-squad workout Tuesday at their new sunny locale, Sarasota's Ed Smith Stadium, which happens to be approximately 2 miles from my house. The laid-back atmosphere offered a good chance to get an up-close look at some of the new faces and promising young talent that will make up Baltimore's 2010 squad.

I'm hoping to visit several of the MLB squads that make Florida's west coast their home away from home, either for workouts or games, over the next month or so, and I'll bring you a quick fantasy synopsis for the upcoming season. So here we go, starting with the O's.

BREAKOUT PLAYER: Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are already pretty well-known among most fans (even though one older Orioles fan pointed out "Pacman Jones" on Monday). But it's Baltimore's third outfielder, 26-year-old Nolan Reimold, who made the biggest splash in the second half of 2009. He hit 15 homers - three fewer than Markakis, in nearly 300 fewer at-bats - and stole eight bases while hitting .279. I'm eager to see what he can do for a full season batting in the top half of a lineup that's better than you might think.

BUYER BEWARE: Brian Roberts' SB totals have dropped in each of the past two seasons, from 50 to 40 to 30, and although his offensive game is still good (16 homers in 2009, second-most of his career), the 32-year-old's decline in speed and a herniated disk in his lower back that's currently bothering him have me a tad concerned.

ETC: Catcher Matt Wieters didn't take fantasy by storm last year as predicted, but the kid's only 23 years old and is still likely to join Joe Mauer as the game's elite catchers. Be wary of overpaying (unless you're in a keeper league, where he's a must-have), but even a slight improvement on last year's numbers would make Wieters a top-5 fantasy catcher in 2010. ... Miguel Tejada (right), who hit 112 homers in four seasons with the O's from 2004-07, is back in a Baltimore uniform and ready to contribute after a solid bounce-back year with the Astros last season. He'll play third this year but retains SS eligibility. ... Garrett Atkins is slated to be Baltimore's starting first baseman, but must prove he can hit away from Coors Field and hold onto the job. ... Kevin Millwood, who pitched above his head for the first half of 2009 with the Rangers before fading, doesn't excite me much as the Orioles' new ace. But some of their other promising young starters, particularly lefty Brian Matusz and righty Chris Tillman, are very intriguing as late-round fliers. ... New closer Mike Gonzalez has a bunch of experience closing out games with the Pirates and Braves and could be a pleasant surprise with the job all to himself at the start of the season.

Names you don't know - but should

OF Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians: Choo, the only major leaguer on South Korea's WBC runner-up team, was one of the hottest hitters in the majors in the final weeks of last season, hitting 10 homers after mid-August and finishing the year with a .309 average and a .946 OPS. He’s got a prime spot hitting third in a pretty good Cleveland batting order, and though he hasn’t shown it in the majors yet he’s also got some speed – he once stole 40 bases in a season in the minors.

1B/3B Chris Davis, Texas Rangers: He clocked 17 home runs in just 80 big-league games as a rookie, a feat that went largely unnoticed outside Arlington last summer. While his strikeout-to-walk ratio of more than 4-to-1 (88 Ks, 20 BBs) doesn’t bode well for consistent success, there’s no reason Davis can’t put up at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs this year with a decent enough batting average, which makes him a poor man’s Evan Longoria. He’ll play first for Texas but maintains third base eligibility in most leagues.

SP Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins: A 2008 breakout season (15-8, 3.52 ERA, 186 Ks and 42 walks in 212 innings) could be a harbinger of good things to come for the 26-year-old righty. He’s got the potential to be a fantasy No. 2 but isn’t getting treated that way on draft day, lasting well after the 10th round in many leagues.

C Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles: The O’s 2007 first-round draft pick is probably major league-ready, although he’ll begin the year in Triple-A. That doesn’t mean he won’t finish the year as a top-10 catcher – the scouts agree he’s a complete player and future fantasy fixture.

RP Matt Lindstrom, Florida Marlins: From the position that made fantasy studs out of Joe Borowski and Kevin Gregg, we bring you 2009 Marlins closer Lindstrom, who comes with as many negatives (recent inflammation in shoulder, not enough strikeouts) as positives (fastball that reaches 100 mph, success as a closer at the end of last year). But somebody’s got to collect the saves for Florida, and a healthy Lindstrom would be the prime candidate.

RP Jose Arredondo, Los Angeles Angels: The young right-hander has the makeup of a major league closer and enjoyed a great season last year as the Halos’ set-up man (10-2, 1.62 ERA, 55 Ks in 61 innings). The Francisco Rodriguez clone should have value as the bridge to new Angels closer Brian Fuentes, but that value will triple if Fuentes should falter.

3B Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants: Maybe his .345 batting average in 41 games as a rookie catcher/first baseman/third baseman last season was a bit of a fluke. But the kid’s hitting better than .400 and is among the league leaders in hits this spring. He hasn’t displayed a ton of power, but he also rarely strikes out. He’s a worthy late-round pick as a corner infielder and even more so if he’s eligible at catcher in your league.

Photo by The Associated Press