Feeling LOST

So I've been feeling a little lost lately ... and it's not just because I just finished watching the LOST series finale (sooooo were they dead the whole time or what? In purgatory? My head hurts) ...

No, I'm feeling lost because it seems like every move I've made with my fantasy team the past few days has horribly backfired.

Case in point: I'm in desperate need of some power, so I traded for Carlos Pena last week, figuring he's due to snap out of it and smash some round-trippers sooner or later. But I figure I'll keep him on my bench for a while since he hadn't even been hitting .100 this month.

Of course he goes and hits not one but two homers Thursday against the Yankees that are of absolutely no use to me.

Oh, I had him in my lineup Friday, Saturday and Sunday after that - when he went a combined 1-for-11 with no homers.

Similar story with Jason Bay, who had gone deep just once all year and was killing my HR total. Finally benched him Saturday against the Yanks and he goes 4-for-4 ... kept him on the bench Sunday figuring he wouldn't do much damage against CC Sabathia (1-for-9 lifetime) and he jacks not one but two homers. Foiled again.

Rough time with my pitching, too, where I'm in just as desperate need of wins. Figured I'd do the grab-and-start thing with Joel Pineiro - picked him up off the waiver wire as he was coming off a complete-game, four-hit shutout and was pitching at St. Louis (where he put up some great numbers both with the Cardinals and as an opposing pitcher - up until Friday, that is). Of course he lasts just three innings, coughing up nine earned runs on nine hits, including a grand slam to Brad Penny of all people.

Thanks for playing, Joel.

Maybe I'm the one who's stuck in purgatory, and my team isn't going anywhere until I make the right choice.

I just hope there's some kind of bright light for my team at the end of all this.

Nice guys finish last

"Nice guys finish last."

Somebody told me that once a long time ago (maybe it was Kevin Arnold on "Wonder Years," I'm not certain).

If it's true, I must be one of the nicest darn guys you'll ever meet.

My fantasy baseball team's in last place.

Dead last.

It's an unenviable position - especially when it's a newsroom fantasy league, and you're the newspaper's fantasy sports "expert."

So what's gone wrong?

Well for starters, I currently have four players on the DL - not counting Cliff Lee, who just came off.

I've been without Jacoby Ellsbury, one of my five "keepers" entering the season and a starting OF, for a while now. And I just lost Brett Anderson, who was looking pretty good and for whom I had pretty high hopes this year.

I've suffered through some pretty awful - and I mean awful - pitching by Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel, two of my "closers."

Didn't count on Adam Jones having 6 RBIs at this point either. Or Jason Bay one HR. Or Zack Greinke zero wins. Or Juan Pierre hitting .184, or Derrek Lee .217.

But it's not all bad.

Lee looked pretty good in his first start back from the DL, and hopefully he'll regain the Cy Young form I bargained for when I rolled the dice on him.

Ryan Zimmerman is going to have a great year if he can put his hamstring troubles behind him.

Hideki Matsui's been a bargain, and Casey McGehee's been a real find.

And Greinke's got to win a game sooner or later.

If he doesn't, I'm bound to stay stuck in last place for the long haul.

At least I'm a nice guy.

The great keeper debate

My primary baseball league the past few years has been one run by some of my newsroom cohorts. It's a 10-team keeper league with a regular snake draft, and it's pretty competitive (I've finished in the bottom half the past two years, much to everyone else's delight).

With the deadline for keepers rapidly approaching - each team must designate 5 players they'll "keep" from last year's squad - I thought I'd take you through my thought process.

Luckily it wasn't a very tough decision, but that's because my team last year just wasn't that talented. While some of my competitors had as many as 10 or more players they could legitimately make a case for keeping, I narrowed my list down to seven.

But first, some guys who didn't make the cut: Dan Uggla, Elvis Andrus, Alex Rios, Franklin Gutierrez, Alcides Escobar, Nolan Reimold, Scott Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco, Rick Porcello, Joba Chamberlain. All useful players, but not really keeper material in this format. We've never really had a "long-term" focus in this league; the way I see it, our keepers should more or less represent the top 50 (5 keepers a team, 10 teams) fantasy players. None of those guys qualify.

Next, the no-brainers: Ryan Howard, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Hernandez. Howard is a top-10 talent and my big thumper. I've come to love Ellsbury, one of the few players capable of single-handedly keeping you afloat in steals while not killing you in other categories. And King Felix is, in my mind, a potential top-5 starter this year.

Now, the tough decisions. I've got two keeper spots left for four players: Ryan Zimmerman, Jason Bay, Josh Beckett, Matt Wieters.

Wieters is obviously a great long-term keeper, as he has a real chance to develop into one of the game's top 2 catchers (along with Joe Mauer). But is he top-2 this year? Is he a top-50 player this year? I think not. Keeping Wieters will put me at a disadvantage. Sorry Matt.

How about Zimmerman? Last year's numbers (.292/33/106) were great, and third base is fairly weak this year. A slight improvement (far from impossible for a 25-year-old) and he could surpass contemporaries Evan Longoria and David Wright and finish behind only Alex Rodriguez among fantasy second baseman. I'm keeping him.

So that leaves Beckett and Bay for one spot. Beckett can be a top-15 pitcher this year if all goes well. Bay can be a top-15 OF. In a perfect world, I'd have a more sure thing to choose from, but these guys are the best I've got. I don't foresee a lot of pitchers being kept this year, which should leave the redraft pretty flush with them. Outfielders capable of 30 homers and 30 steals? Not so much. Bay it is.

So there you have it. Ryan Howard, Felix Hernandez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Zimmerman, Jason Bay. Let's go get em, guys.

New Face, New Place: Jason Bay, Mets

Jason Bay turned a career year at the plate with the Red Sox in 2009 into a four-year, $66 million contract with the Mets this offseason. So how will he fare in 2010?

Though this season's Amazin's lineup likely won't be quite as good as Boston's last year, it also shouldn't be as bad as some of the Pirates batting orders Bay was a part of earlier in his career, and he was still able to put up All-Star-caliber production in relative anonymity the Steel City. He should have a number of RBI opportunities if/when Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes get healthy and David Wright returns to form.

Much has been made about the Mets' homer-sapping ballpark, Citi Field, but perhaps a little too much. New York did hit only 95 homers last year as a team - 27 fewer than the next-worst team - but in many cases they had guys suffer disastrous/injury plagued seasons and were forced to rely on little-talented replacements. And they were also the worst road homer team as well, so it wasn't merely a Citi Field phenomenon.

The Mets did lower Citi's center-field wall from 16 feet to 8 for the upcoming season in an attempt to make the park more homer friendly. That may help Wright out, but probably not Bay, who hit the vast majority of his 36 bombs to left field at Fenway last season, according to HitTrackeronline.com. So while you can probably expect Bay's HR total to dip by a decent amount, he should remain consistent in other categories and perhaps even swipe a few more bags than last year (13) in his return to the NL. Bay deserves consideration as a top-10 outfielder in 2010.

Photo by The Associated Press

2009 Fantasy All-Stars

There is no online fan-balloting for my fantasy All-Star team.

No one-player-from-every-team rule. No sentimental favorites or hometown heroes or feel-good stories.

My fantasy All-Star squad is all about the cold, hard numbers — just like the game itself. There’s little room for subjectivity or emotions getting in the way.

I’m simply recognizing those players who have made the biggest statistical impacts at their respective positions. Basically, if my all-stars were actually assembled as someone’s fantasy team, they would have dominated all competition in the first half of the season and would be running away with the league title.

So let’s do this:

CATCHER

The Minnesota Twins’ Joe Mauer is making a legitimate run at .400, but as if that weren’t enough, he’s already hit a career-high 14 home runs. Mauer cost more than other catchers in your draft, but he’s paying you back tenfold.

FIRST BASE

Albert Pujols has been off the charts: A league-leading 31 homers and 82 RBIs, an average above .330 and 10 steals, his most since 2005. Hats off to fantasy’s Most Valuable Player in the first half.

SECOND BASE

Ian Kinsler gets the nod despite a batting average that’s plunged into the low .260s — a disappointment after last year’s .319 mark. But everything else has been just fine for the Texas Ranger: he’s among the league leaders at the position in homers (19), runs (56) , RBIs (51) and steals (16).

THIRD BASE

In perhaps the most surprising choice, I’m giving the hot corner honors to the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Mark Reynolds, who leads all third basemen in homers, is second in RBIs and fourth in steals. He’ll never be a batting champ (.271 average through Friday), but the rest of the numbers don’t lie.

SHORTSTOP

The Florida Marlins’ Hanley Ramirez is the only repeat from last year’s squad, despite the fact he’s registered fewer steals (14) than Derek Jeter and Willie Bloomquist. Han-Ram’s made up for that, however, by leading all everyday shortstops in homers and RBIs and ranking second at the position in runs and average. We’ll take that.

OUTFIELD

Raul Ibanez, fantasy’s biggest surprise of 2009 by far, was having an MVP-caliber year (.312, 22 homers, 59 RBIs, 51 runs) in his first season with the Philadelphia Phillies before hurting his groin. Can he keep up that pace in the second half?

Jason Bay has blossomed in Boston, laying the groundwork for a career season and threatening to lead the league in RBIs (70 through Friday).

Carl Crawford’s already reached the 40-steal mark but has also mixed in power (eight homers) and an awesome average (.320 at last check) for the Tampa Bay Rays.

STARTING PITCHER

Roy Halladay? Johan Santana? Tim Lincecum? Josh Beckett? All worthy candidates. But if I had to choose just one starter, it’s Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke, a guy who was drafted later or cost less than all the aforementioned star hurlers. Greinke’s got as many wins as anyone else in the league, kept his ERA under 2.00, and walked just 18 batters while striking out 114. Remarkable.

RELIEF PITCHER

Here’s another choice no one could have predicted: Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres gets the call over heavyweights such as Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon. Bell’s got more saves than all those guys and can hang with any of those revered closers in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. No one said a fantasy All-Star has to be an actual star.

Photo by The Associated Press

Talkin' trades

I get asked what I think about fantasy trades all the time. I always have to start my answer with the same preface: "Well, without knowing your whole roster or your team needs, here's what I think ...."

That being said, my pal Sean asked me today what I thought of this deal: Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki for Hanley Ramirez. My response was this: If you can spare the steals, do it in a heartbeat.

Turns out he'd be the guy giving up Braun and Tulo, so it was a no-go. But if I was the guy dealing Hanley, I'd be all over it. Sure, he's a beast at shortstop, and you'd be parting with a huge pile of stolen bases in the deal. But even if Ramirez hit 40 homers this year, you're looking at a minimum of 60 from the other two guys. Tulowitzki's probably a bit undervalued, but with him recovering nicely from last year's injury-plagued season, I can foresee him returning to his 2007 form - which would make him a top-5 fantasy shortstop, just a peg below the elite guys like Ramirez and Jose Reyes. Then add in the hefty average and minimum of 30 homers you're bound to get from Braun, and the deal's a winner.

Anyway, I pulled off a deal of my own the other day: I shipped Bobby Abreu for Scott Kazmir. I had a serious lack of pitching with Brandon Webb on the DL and Francisco Liriano and Max Scherzer not meeting my expectations. I was in a pretty good place with stolen bases and have a decent crop of outfielders (Alex Rios, Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron), so I decided to part with Abreu. With eight steals already I figure he's probably already coming up on a third of his season total (30-25-22 the past three years); he's hitting .375 and hasn't topped .300 in a season since 2004; and he hasn't hit a homer yet, which is a little disconcerting. I belive Abreu will have a fine season, just not THAT fine a season at age 35.

I've always been a Kazmir fan, and while he does have his flaws (way too many pitches per start), he's another guy who's a bit undervalued because of some slight injury problems last year. If Kaz can stay healthy for 35 starts, the potential's there for a sub-4.00 ERA, 200 Ks and 15 W's. And that's exactly what my team could use.

The great keeper debate

So I'm in a keeper league where I can protect up to five players entering this year's draft. I pretty much hate my team, mostly because it finished in the middle of the pack next last season and because I unfortunately don't really have a no-brainer, elite, can't-give-up-under-any-circumstance guy on my roster. It's not terrible though, and I do have some talent I'd like to hold onto.

Here's the roster I finished the season with last year:

C A.J. Pierzynski
1B Ryan Howard
2B Dan Uggla
SS Miguel Tejada
3B Jorge Cantu
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
OF Delmon Young
OF Lance Berkman
UTIL Jason Bay
UTIL Joey Votto
BENCH Jason Giambi
BENCH Pablo Sandoval
BENCH Cameron Maybin
DL Travis Hafner

P Josh Beckett
P Aaron Harang
P Daisuke Matsuzaka
P Francisco Liriano
P Bobby Jenks
P Mike Gonzalez
P J.P. Howell
P Fernando Rodney
P Javier Vazquez
P Chad Qualls
P Ben Sheets
DL Billy Wagner

So right off the bat: I want no part of Hafner or Wagner whatsoever. No thanks. You killed me last year. Get lost.

Pierzynski, Tejada, Cantu, Giambi, Harang, Gonzalez, Howell, Rodney, Vazquez, Qualls, Sheets ... no. Some worthwhile players there, but not keeper material.

I think Young will have the kind of year he should have had last year (which is why I drafted him in the first place) ... but not a keeper.

I don't belive in keeping a closer, so Jenks is out.

Votto's a nice player, but I've got at least two better first basemen already on the roster. Next.

Sandoval and Maybin are intriguing, up-and-coming players, which is why I picked them up at the end of last season when my team had already tanked ... but I can probably redraft them.

So that leaves me with eight legit choices: Howard, Uggla, Ellsbury, Berkman, Bay, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Liriano.

It's a 10-team league, and if everyone protects five guys, I should be keeping top-50-caliber players, which I believe all those guys are capable of being in 2009. It's just a matter of who I want to build a team around, and if I lean toward offense or pitching.

If I want to tackle it by positional scarcity, Uggla is the only guy who fits the bill as a second baseman. His power potential places him in the upper tier at 2B, but he doesn't run a lick, which hurts. He's probably somewhere around sixth in the 2B rankings - doesn't sound like keeper material to me.

Howard, on the other hand ... we know about his faults (no average, no speed), but he's a potential HR champ. He's in.

Berkman's probably the other safe bet. He's getting up there in age, last year seemed like a career year, and another 18 steals seems like a longshot ... but he's been a consistent producer across the board, and he's still got Carlos Lee batting behind him. Plug him into the utility spot.

So now I've got two big mashers, but what about speed? Ellsbury fits the bill. How many players are capable of 50 steals in 2009? Not that many. He won't give me a ton of power, but he won't embarrass himself at the plate like some other speed-only guys. Let's do it.

Now we come to Bay ... do I keep him too, which leaves me room for only one pitcher? The guy fills the stat sheet, seems to be built to play in Fenway, should be in his prime ... OK, I'm sold.

So now we come to the pitchers, Beckett, Dice-K, Liriano. Dice is nice, but the walks really drive me nuts sometimes. Becks, even with the injury concerns and coming off a "down" year, can strike out just as many without the drama. But the guy that really gets my blood pumping is Liriano, who who showed me that Tommy John surgery is a distant memory with his stellar post-All Star break performance (6-1, 2.47 ERA, 60 to 19 K:BB). Would he go in the top 50 in a regular start-from-scratch draft? Is he a bona fide No. 1 fantasy starter? Probably not. But he offers the most upside of any of the guys I've got, so why not take a chance?

There you have it: Howard, Berkman, Ellsbury, Bay, Liriano. My five keepers - unless I change my mind. Thoughts?

Manny to Hollywood and more trade impacts

Now that the MLB trading deadline has come and gone, let's review the major deals from a fantasy perspective:

Manny Ramirez to Dodgers: I don't see Manny's value taking much of a dip in L.A. The change of scenery should bring out the carefree knucklehead we're used to seeing, and although the breakup of baseball's most feared duo (Manny and David Ortiz) hurts both players a bit, both should continue their slugging ways.

Jason Bay to Red Sox: Bay is no Manny, but he's an All-Star-caliber player, and he'll certainly benefit from playing in Fenway Park with a much better supporting cast than he had in Pittsburgh. He was in the midst of a really nice bounceback year, and he's already taken a liking to life with the Sox (homer, three RBIs, six runs scored, three walks in three games).

Craig Hansen, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss to Pirates: Three of the four minor leaguers Pittsburgh acquired in their big three-team deal will get immediate playing time with the big league club. Hansen will be in the mix in the Pirates' bullpen and could be their closer of the future, a job he didn't have much chance of taking from Jonathan Papelbon in Boston. Save-scavengers take notice. Moss has a bright future as the Pirates' everyday left fielder, though he's probably a year or two away from making real fantasy contributions. LaRoche, once considered the Dodgers' third baseman of the future before falling out of favor, now holds that distinction in Pittsburgh, where he'll man the hot corner across the diamond from his big brother Adam. He's definitely worth adding in NL-only leagues if he's not owned already, but beyond that, take a wait-and-see approach as he gets his first real shot at regular playing time.



Ken Griffey Jr. to White Sox: Junior's uneventful tenure in Cincinnati comes to a close as he finally gets dealt to a contender. It's a shame he's no longer an elite player and no more than a third or fourth fantasy outfielder at best, but there's a chance a pennant race and the opportunity to play centerfield again gives his bat a little extra life for the next two months. The deal also means less playing time for the fading Paul Konerko as Nick Swisher moves from center to first base.

Ivan Rodriguez to Yankeees: We've seen Pudge change addresses a few times before with no problem, and the relocation to New York's powerful lineup shouldn't affect him much. While no longer a top-level fantasy catcher, his near-.300 average is more than adequate, and he's right on target for the same kind of numbers we've seen from him the past few years in Detroit. Nothing to worry about here.

Kyle Farnsworth to Tigers: Detroit had to upgrade the back end of its bullpen with Todd Jones faltering in the closer's role, replacement Fernando Rodney following in his footsteps and Joel Zumaya being an injury risk. Farnsworth's struggles in big spots are well-documented, but the fact remains he's a strikeout machine (averaging a K per inning this year) and could see save opportunities before long.

Mark Teixeira to Angels: Big Tex's move to L.A. means the Angels finallly have a serious hitter to plant in the middle of their lineup and give Vlad Guererro some help. Teixeira is a notorious second-half player, and we should see a slightly better average from him down the stretch to go with those home runs.

Casey Kotchman to Braves: Kotchman, one of the young talents the Halos have been hesitant to part with the past few years, will step in as Atlanta's everyday first baseman, and though he's a decent player, his limitations as a power hitter make him no more than a middle-tier first baseman in mixed leagues.

Spring report No. 3

BRADENTON, Fla. - Poor Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Will they ever catch a break?

This team's already into its second decade of underachieving - 14 straight losing seasons. Will 2007 be any different? Hard to say. But it's not like there isn't any talent there, and that's what us fantasy nerds are interested in.

Start with OF Jason Bay, the Buccos' most serious fantasy threat. The late-blooming Canadian had offseason knee surgery, and that fact coupled with his big drop-off in steals from 2005 to 2006 (21-11) has me a little concerned in that department. However, his power numbers should be just fine, especially with the addition of impact bat Adam LaRoche in the lineup this season. Bay's a solid second- or third-rounder and would be a fine OF to build around.

As for LaRoche, his breakout '05 campaign (.285/32/90) with the Braves made him a valuable trading chip, and the Pirates gave up closer Mike Gonzalez to get him. The first baseman will bat cleanup in front of Bay in the hopes he'll give a pretty stagnant offense some life. It remains to be seen if the still-developing 27-year-old will turn it up a notch at the plate, and it's probably a little premature to say the lefty will hit 40 homers this year playing home games at PNC Park. Still, I don't think similar production to last year is out of the question, which means he's a no-brainer for NL-only leagues and a good backup 1B in mixed leagues.

C Ronny Paulino, who doubled and hit a two-run homer Saturday in a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, is an up-and-coming hitter who deserves a look in deep leagues. 3B Freddy Sanchez opened everybody's eyes by winning the NL batting title (.347) last year, and while he could also be eligible at 2B, which would boost his value, he's pretty much a one-stat wonder. Ditto goes for leadoff man Chris Duffy (26 steals in 84 games last year), who gives you speed but not much else - although we know how valuable speed is in this game.

There are a ton of young arms in the rotation, but will any of them take the leap this year? Lefty and staff "ace" Zach Duke hasn't come along as fast as the Pirates had hoped. Righty Ian Snell's had a solid spring and offers some strikeout potential as a No. 2. And Tom Gorzelanny, another lefty, has a bunch of talent too. It's your guess as to which of them - if any - make the jump in '07.

Looking for a really deep sleeper? First baseman Brad Eldred has been tearing it up in the Grapefruit League this spring, batting .524 with four homers so far. He was 3-for-4 with two doubles Saturday and showed surprising speed and athleticism for a big guy (6-5, 275 pounds). The Pirates even gave him a tryout in right field, since he's blocked by LaRoche at first. The man they call "Big Country" seems to be an all-or-nothing type guy who swings for the fences, but he's kind of intriguing. He'll likely begin the year in the minors since a broken thumb pretty much wiped out his 2006 season, and he still needs some polishing. But if he proves himself to be at least passable in the outfield, we could see him again there soon in the majors, which would put him in a tie with Adam Dunn as the majors' heaviest outfielder. For real.

Some other observations:

-We've already discussed the fantasy outlook for Pirates closer Salomon Torres. He didn't help ease my mind after surrendering a go-ahead, two-run homer in the nint to pinch-hitter Eric Duncan, once considered the Yankees' best prospect. Be ready, Matt Capps.

-It was another up-and-down outing for Yankees lefty Kei Igawa, who ran into some trouble for the second straight game: Three innings, five hits, four strikeouts, no walks, two runs allowed (on Paulino's homer). The positive is he showed some poise and found the strike zone, which will be key once he gets to the Bronx. If he can earn Joe Torre's trust and keep himself in games long enough, the offensive support is there to at least get him some wins.

-A Yankees fan was seen trying to get Alex Rodriguez to sign a copy of his children's book. It's worth nothing the fan appeared to be in his mid-40s and had no children present with him.