Miguel Cabrera: Fat or phat?

I'm not seeing a lot of love for Miguel Cabrera this year for some reason. In the mock draft podcast we did last week, he fell out of the top 10 and all the way to 16th (average draft position in ESPN leagues: 11). And in a buddy of mine's draft the other day, Cabrera fell to him at the 17th overall pick. Seventeenth!

No doubt a lot of the bad feelings stem from last year's embarrassing binge drinking/domestic dispute episode that coincided with the Tigers coming up short in heated pennant chase. Combine that with Cabrera's oft-mentioned struggles with his weight (listed at 6-foot-4, 240 this year), and I believe that's causing some trepidation among fantasy drafters.

But Miggy has since undergone alcohol counseling and says he's given up drinking and already feels healthier. He's been incredibly durable over his career, never having played fewer than 157 games in a season since becoming a full-timer. And his numbers ... oh, those numbers.

Cabrera's averaged 33 homers and 117 RBIs a season since breaking into the league in 2003. He's a career .311 hitter. His career OPS is .925. He hit .324 last year, his highest average in three years. And he's only 26 years old! Check out his career stats compared to some other ballplayers through age 26 and notice a few of the names: Ken Griffey, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle ...

Sure, there are a few knocks against Cabrera, and not just over his fitness level. The Tigers lineup, while good on paper, hasn't quite been durable or fearsome. And he'd be more valuable if he had stayed at 3B, a shallower position, than switching to 1B. But ultimately, the pros outweigh (pun intended) the cons, and Cabrera belongs in the top 10 or just below it in 2010.

Manny to Hollywood and more trade impacts

Now that the MLB trading deadline has come and gone, let's review the major deals from a fantasy perspective:

Manny Ramirez to Dodgers: I don't see Manny's value taking much of a dip in L.A. The change of scenery should bring out the carefree knucklehead we're used to seeing, and although the breakup of baseball's most feared duo (Manny and David Ortiz) hurts both players a bit, both should continue their slugging ways.

Jason Bay to Red Sox: Bay is no Manny, but he's an All-Star-caliber player, and he'll certainly benefit from playing in Fenway Park with a much better supporting cast than he had in Pittsburgh. He was in the midst of a really nice bounceback year, and he's already taken a liking to life with the Sox (homer, three RBIs, six runs scored, three walks in three games).

Craig Hansen, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss to Pirates: Three of the four minor leaguers Pittsburgh acquired in their big three-team deal will get immediate playing time with the big league club. Hansen will be in the mix in the Pirates' bullpen and could be their closer of the future, a job he didn't have much chance of taking from Jonathan Papelbon in Boston. Save-scavengers take notice. Moss has a bright future as the Pirates' everyday left fielder, though he's probably a year or two away from making real fantasy contributions. LaRoche, once considered the Dodgers' third baseman of the future before falling out of favor, now holds that distinction in Pittsburgh, where he'll man the hot corner across the diamond from his big brother Adam. He's definitely worth adding in NL-only leagues if he's not owned already, but beyond that, take a wait-and-see approach as he gets his first real shot at regular playing time.



Ken Griffey Jr. to White Sox: Junior's uneventful tenure in Cincinnati comes to a close as he finally gets dealt to a contender. It's a shame he's no longer an elite player and no more than a third or fourth fantasy outfielder at best, but there's a chance a pennant race and the opportunity to play centerfield again gives his bat a little extra life for the next two months. The deal also means less playing time for the fading Paul Konerko as Nick Swisher moves from center to first base.

Ivan Rodriguez to Yankeees: We've seen Pudge change addresses a few times before with no problem, and the relocation to New York's powerful lineup shouldn't affect him much. While no longer a top-level fantasy catcher, his near-.300 average is more than adequate, and he's right on target for the same kind of numbers we've seen from him the past few years in Detroit. Nothing to worry about here.

Kyle Farnsworth to Tigers: Detroit had to upgrade the back end of its bullpen with Todd Jones faltering in the closer's role, replacement Fernando Rodney following in his footsteps and Joel Zumaya being an injury risk. Farnsworth's struggles in big spots are well-documented, but the fact remains he's a strikeout machine (averaging a K per inning this year) and could see save opportunities before long.

Mark Teixeira to Angels: Big Tex's move to L.A. means the Angels finallly have a serious hitter to plant in the middle of their lineup and give Vlad Guererro some help. Teixeira is a notorious second-half player, and we should see a slightly better average from him down the stretch to go with those home runs.

Casey Kotchman to Braves: Kotchman, one of the young talents the Halos have been hesitant to part with the past few years, will step in as Atlanta's everyday first baseman, and though he's a decent player, his limitations as a power hitter make him no more than a middle-tier first baseman in mixed leagues.

Brace for the trade deadline

The trade deadline has always been an interesting date on the Major League Baseball calendar. It's a mythical benchmark that separates contenders from pretenders, buyers from sellers, Red Sox from White Sox. And it comes at a crucial time in the fantasy season.

We're just beginning to get a good idea of whether or not our fantasy teams have a shot at a title this season, and by the July 31 deadline, our fates could be all but decided. The moves the real ballclubs make in the next week-and-a-half could have great impact on our futures, so you'll want to pay close attention to ESPN's Bottom Line (and this blog, of course).

Let's examine some of the biggest names who've popped up in trade rumors and how their possible relocations might affect their fantasy fortunes:

• Dontrelle Willis: He's not a free agent until 2009, but the pennywise Florida Marlins would like to get a huge bounty in return for Willis now in a pitching-starved market. The problem is Willis is mired in one of the worst slumps of his young career and hasn't won in his past nine starts.

There have been whispers of a mysterious forearm injury, and he's even been booed recently by the home fans (Wait, the Marlins have home fans?). A change of scenery would certainly help, assuming he's healthy, but I'm not sure Florida will throw in the towel now and deal him. D-Train owners might just have to gut it out.

• Mark Teixeira: Big Tex might be the hottest commodity on the market, meaning the Texas Rangers no doubt have a high asking price. Teixeira, a free agent next year, wants no part of a rebuilding effort in Arlington. The friendly confines of The Ballpark have always helped prop up his numbers a bit, however (career .308 hitter at home; .274 on the road), so a move to a contender might actually hurt a little.

• Eric Gagne: Gagne's unexpected renaissance in Texas (14 saves, 1.23 ERA, only two DL stints) has exceeded fantasy owners' expectations. It's also made him perhaps the most sought-after reliever as the trade deadline nears.

The catch is Gagne reportedly only wants to close, not set up, and he has a no-trade clause in his contract. His fantasy value is in large part tied to getting save opportunities as a closer, and the number of serious contenders who actually need a closer right now (Philadelphia Phillies? Chicago Cubs? Perhaps the Atlanta Braves?) isn't very high. If Gagne does relent and agrees to be a set-up man, his fantasy stock plummets, so you might want to consider trading him now.

• Ken Griffey Jr./Adam Dunn: It seems likely the cellar-dwelling Cincinnati Reds would want to move one of their high-priced, slugging outfielders. Dunn seems like the more likely candidate, since Griffey, a hometown boy, is a 10-and-5 player (10 years in the league, five with the same team) and has veto power over any trade. And while both players have put together nice seasons and should be coveted for their power, they'd be leaving behind Great American Ballpark, a hitter's paradise. A trade to any other team would almost certainly cost you quite a few home runs.

Spring Report No. 4

SARASOTA, Fla. - You know someone's gonna do it. Somebody in your league is going to draft Ken Griffey Jr.

It's only a matter of time before Junior's name gets called, and then the jokes are gonna start flying. Calling him injury-prone is an understatement at this point, and he even got started early this year, breaking his hand while wrestling with his kids on the family's yacht in the offseason (coulda happened to any of us).

So should YOU be the one who takes a chance on Griffey this year? Maybe you convince yourself he got the yearly injury out of the way already. And hey, he hasn't lost that sweet home run swing, even after all these years (18, do you believe it?!).

Then reality begins to set in. Griffey hasn't had 500 at-bats in a season since 2000. He was on the bench yet again Thursday against the New York Yankees and has yet to make an appearance this spring. And this week the Reds announced he's moving to right field - a change that hasn't exactly made him jump for joy but is a surefire sign his career is winding down.

You don't want to be the one who gets suckered in by Griffey this time around, but that doesn't mean you have to avoid him at all costs. Instead of considering him a once-great player in decline, treat him more like an unproven rookie. He should be no more than your fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues, but look at some of the other guys available to fill those slots - Brian Giles, Moises Alou, Milton Bradley, and so on. Do any of those stiffs have the potential to hit 40 home runs? I think not. In a perfect world, Griff does, no matter how unlikely that scenario might be.

Don't let Griffey break your heart. But if you haven't taken many risks with your lineup, and you can afford to dump him the moment a hamstring tears or a tendon snaps, he's not a terrible pick. No matter how much they laugh at you on draft day.

Some other observations from Reds camp:

- Griffey's position change isn't the only interesting story in the Rays outfield. Josh Hamilton - the 1999 No. 1 overall draft pick by the Devil Rays who had his career derailed by drug addiction - has been the feel-good story this spring as he attempts a comeback. Hamilton, still just 25, has taken steps to get his life back in order and was reinstated by MLB last season. He was taken by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft this year, then the Reds acquired him and decided to give him another chance, and they haven't been disappointed. He's been one of the hottest hitters in the Grapefruit League (.527 in 46 at-bats) as he gets an extended look in right with Griffey still on the shelf. He's a five-tool player, and he seems to have a great shot at making the Opening Day roster (the Reds will lose him if he doesn't). We've all seen springtime All-Stars who fizzle in the regular season, and we know the demons of addiction will always be with him, but Hamilton is still a player who bears watching this year.

-Carl Pavano had a decent, if underwhelming, start Thursday (three runs, eight hits in 4.1 innings). He did show a little tenacity by getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the first inning unscathed, and perhaps best of all, he didn't get injured. I'm still not sold on the guy, though (neither are his teammates), so I'd suggest a wait-and-see approach.

-Derek Jeter showed off some of his trademark hustle in the middle of Thursday's game when he and Alex Rodriguez bolted off the field to avoid a giant swarm of bees making its way to the outfield. I haven't checked out the New York tabloids yet, but I didn't exactly see Jeter attempt to save A-Rod from the swarm, so their friendship may have reached a new low.