Cliff Lee trade impact

Cliff Lee's a Ranger.

Not a Yankee. Not a Mariner. Not a Phillie or Indian, either.

In yet another midseason deal, Lee has again changed teams with the hopes of changing the MLB playoff picture.

Texas acquired Lee from Seattle last week for a package of prospects. What's it mean for fantasy players? Not a whole lot, to be honest. Lee's Cy Young-caliber numbers (8-4, 2.64 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) shouldn't take much of a dip.

Granted, he's moving from an extreme pitcher's park to one of the most hitting-friendly stadiums in the league in Rangers Ballpark, and he doesn't have particularly good career numbers in Arlington (7.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in 8 starts). But Lee's been arguably the most dominant pitcher this season - he's got 91 strikeouts and just six walks this year, for gosh sakes - and I expect that to continue. So what if his Texas debut didn't go as planned last Saturday (9 hits, 6 earned runs, 2 strikeouts)? Lee still pitched a complete game, his eighth of the season. He'll have a just as good a defense behind him in Texas as he enjoyed in Seattle, plus the added benefit of a much better bullpen, anchored by All-Star closer Neftali Feliz, whenever he's not able to go nine innings. He'll also have much better run support as he leaves behind the hitting-challenged M's.

Lee's ratios may inch up a bit along with the summer temperatures in Texas, but I still expect him to contend for the AL Cy Young and pile up the W's when all is said and done.

As for the other players involved in the deal, the most fantasy relevant is 1B Justin Smoak, who's still a good long-term prospect but probably won't be able to improve on his .206 average much in Seattle this year and probably belongs on your bench for the forseeable future.

And back in Texas, the trade opens up a spot at first for Chris Davis, who hit 17 homers in 295 at-bats as a rookie in 2008 but had been since sent back-and-forth to the minors while struggling at the plate. Davis had been tearing up Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .327 average, .418 on-base percentage and .521 slugging and might be able to provide some power with regular playing time in the big leagues. He's worth a look in deep leagues.


Photo by The Associated Press

Strasburg's stellar start

Rarely do fantasy prospects live up to the hype, especially in their major league debuts.

Stephen Strasburg must be one of a kind.

The Nationals phenom was stupendous in his first big league game Tuesday night, a 5-2 win over the Pirates. He electrified the D.C. crowd with a whopping 14 strikeouts, one shy of the record for an MLB debut (sobering note: the record of 15 is held by J.R. Richard and the immortal Karl Spooner).

Perhaps you watched the game on MLB Network: Strasburg showing an awesome repertoire and command of his pitches; the rookie needing only 94 pitches to breeze through seven innings, with his fastball reaching up to 100 mph and still blazing in the high 90s just before he left the game; Bob Costas waxing poetic about Strasburg being a potential Hall of Famer and Washington's best pitcher since Walter Johnson.

If you're a Strasburg owner, you've got to be grinning. The kid is a game-changer, for both the Nats and your fantasy squad. But if you're looking to sell high - and assuming you're not in a keeper league - his value might not be greater in 2010 than it is right now. I heard of an offer of Cliff Lee for Strasburg straight up in one league Tuesday, and that was before Strasburg even threw a pitch.

Strasburg may be great, but remember, this was only the Pirates, and there are bound to be some bumps this summer. I'd take the proven Lee, who's pitching at a Cy Young level so far, for Strasburg in a heartbeat. But again, there's no way I'm letting Strasburg slip away if I'm in a keeper league, and if I do trade him it's only for an elite starter or hitter in return. Otherwise, I can't wait to see what the kid does for an encore. 


Photo by The Associated Press

Did you know?

Did you know that ...

Washington Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard has as many wins (7) as Felix Hernandez (2), Cliff Lee (2), Josh Beckett (1), Zack Greinke (1) and Carlos Zambrano (1) combined?

Nats closer Matt Capps has as many saves (16) as Mariano Rivera (8) and Francisco Rodriguez (8)?

The Blue Jays' Jose Bautista has as many homers (14) as Matt Holliday (5) Aramis Ramirez (4), Jason Bay (3) and Manny Ramirez (2)?

The Brewers' Casey McGehee has as many RBIs (39) as Derrek Lee (20) and Prince Fielder (19)?

Just saying.

Fantasy's a funny game.

Nice guys finish last

"Nice guys finish last."

Somebody told me that once a long time ago (maybe it was Kevin Arnold on "Wonder Years," I'm not certain).

If it's true, I must be one of the nicest darn guys you'll ever meet.

My fantasy baseball team's in last place.

Dead last.

It's an unenviable position - especially when it's a newsroom fantasy league, and you're the newspaper's fantasy sports "expert."

So what's gone wrong?

Well for starters, I currently have four players on the DL - not counting Cliff Lee, who just came off.

I've been without Jacoby Ellsbury, one of my five "keepers" entering the season and a starting OF, for a while now. And I just lost Brett Anderson, who was looking pretty good and for whom I had pretty high hopes this year.

I've suffered through some pretty awful - and I mean awful - pitching by Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel, two of my "closers."

Didn't count on Adam Jones having 6 RBIs at this point either. Or Jason Bay one HR. Or Zack Greinke zero wins. Or Juan Pierre hitting .184, or Derrek Lee .217.

But it's not all bad.

Lee looked pretty good in his first start back from the DL, and hopefully he'll regain the Cy Young form I bargained for when I rolled the dice on him.

Ryan Zimmerman is going to have a great year if he can put his hamstring troubles behind him.

Hideki Matsui's been a bargain, and Casey McGehee's been a real find.

And Greinke's got to win a game sooner or later.

If he doesn't, I'm bound to stay stuck in last place for the long haul.

At least I'm a nice guy.

Evaluating my team

Here are the 2010 Kenny Powers All-Stars, named in honor of the protagonist in HBO's hilarious East Bound & Down. It's a 10x10 rotisserie keeper league, with each team protecting five players from last year's roster. The round of selection is noted in parenthesis (I'm counting the 50 players kept as the first five "rounds"; K=keepers)

C Russell Martin (21)
1B Ryan Howard (K)
2B Ben Zobrist (7)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (K)
SS Stephen Drew (14)
IF Derrek Lee (9)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (K)
OF Jason Bay (K)
OF Adam Jones (8)
OF Juan Pierre (15)
UTIL Todd Helton (17)
P Felix Hernandez (K)
P Zack Greinke (6)
P Cliff Lee (10)
P Brett Anderson (11)
P Francisco Cordero (12)
P Wandy Rodriguez (13)
P Frank Francisco (16)
P Neftali Feliz (19)
P Octavio Dotel (22)
BENCH Franklin Gutierrez (18)
BENCH Hideki Matsui (20)
BENCH Roy Oswalt (23)
BENCH Everth Cabrera (24)
BENCH Kerry Wood (25)
BENCH Gaby Sanchez (26)


NOTES: My first pick in the redraft was an easy choice when Zack Greinke fell to me at No. 4 (he wasn't kept by last year's champion, whose team was stacked). I love the pairing of Greinke and Felix Hernandez at the top of my rotation. In fact, I love my entire rotation - I couldn't pass up Cliff Lee even with the injury/suspension; reached a bit for Brett Anderson but love his upside; thought Wandy Rodriguez was undervalued as a 13th-round choice, and ditto with Roy Oswalt in the 23rd.

If starting pitching is my biggest strength, my biggest concern is power. Reaching for a few starters put me at a disadvantage, so I missed out on a few sluggers I was targeting in the early to middle rounds (Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn). Obviously having Ryan Howard helps; I need big things from Derrek Lee, and maybe Hideki Matsui and prospect Gaby Sanchez (my last pick) can help out a bit off the bench in that department.

Didn't really want Stephen Drew after he dragged down my team last year, but I decided to wait on a SS and he was the best guy remaining, so maybe he'll bounce back. Waited for a catcher too - I was hoping to nab Kurt Suzuki late but he went way earlier than I expected to another savvy owner, so I'll settle for Russell Martin. Remember when he used to be a stud?

One worry I don't have is speed, between Jacoby Ellsbury and Juan Pierre in the same outfield, plus speedy Everth Cabrera on the bench.

Not thrilled with my relievers. I started to feel some pressure and grabbed Francisco Cordero in the 12th round - he should be good for 40 saves or so. After that it's just spare parts - Frank Francisco (with Neftali Feliz as insurance), Octavio Dotel and Kerry Wood (hopefully he'll become trade bait when he gets healthy).

My other hopes: That Ben Zobrist wasn't a fluke, Adam Jones breaks out in a big way and Todd Helton still has something left in the tank.

The past few years I've loved my teams after draft day, and they turned out to be pretty mediocre. This year I've got lukewarm feelings, so maybe that means it could be something special.

We'll see.

New Face, New Place: Cliff Lee, Mariners

Normally a pitcher who's moving from the NL to the AL is due for a little bit of a downgrade. That's just something that comes with the tougher, DH-included lineups of the Junior Circuit.

But will it be the case for Cliff Lee?

Lee was phenomenal last year as a late-season acquisition by the Phillies, leading them all the way to the World Series. Now he's a little ticked that the Phils decided to get rid of him this offseason, trading him to the Mariners and acquiring Roy Halladay in his place.

Lee pitched to a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts for Philly and was even better in their hitter-friendly home stadium, Citizens Bank Park, posting a 2.52 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts. And now he's moving back to the AL, where he spent his entire career with the Indians prior to last summer's deal and won a Cy Young in 2008. His new team's offense won't be nearly as good as the slugging Phillies (Seattle was one of the league's worst offensive teams in 2009), but he'll have a stellar defense behind him and the benefit of pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

I expect Lee to be every bit as good in Seattle as he's been the past couple seasons. He's easily a top 10 fantasy pitcher in 2010.

Fantasy baseball advice? I'm your man

Need help deciding who to keep and who to drop for 2010?

Want to know how Cliff Lee will fare as a Mariner or if Johnny Damon is due for a decline in Detroit (if he lands there)?

Wondering if that Cole Hamels-for-Clayton Kershaw trade offer in your e-mail inbox can work to your advantage?

I'm the guy you want to talk to.

Feel free to pose your fantasy baseball question as a comment on this or any other of my blog posts. Or e-mail me directly at jbartolone@hotmail.com. I'm always more than happy to help out my fellow fantasy geek who's looking for advice. If your question's good enough, I'd love to turn it into a blog post - that way I feel like I'm meeting the needs of my audience rather than just pontificating about random topics that may interest only me.

I'm here for you, readers.

Phillies settle for Lee

The Phillies couldn't work out a long-rumored deal for Roy Halladay, so they settled for Cliff Lee, the second-best pitcher on the trade market. How does the move affect Lee's fantasy fortunes? Could this move mirror last year's deadline deal that sent CC Sabathia to Milwaukee? The Indians traded the reigning Cy Young winner to the National League in that one and it worked out pretty well for CC owners (11-2, 1.65 ERA down the stretch as a Brewer).

It's hard to say Lee will enjoy that kind of dominance, but he should get a boost from facing weaker NL lineups. Lee owns a 3.18 career ERA against the NL, compared to a 4.13 vs. the AL. He does move to a much more hitter-friendly stadium - Citizens Bank Park is in the top 10 in runs and homers allowed per game, while Progressive Field is in the bottom three in runs and dead last in homers surrendered. But also consider Lee is receiving some of the lowest run support in the AL (4.32 runs per nine innings), while three of Philly's starters - Jamie Moyer (6.75), Cole Hamels (6.41) and J.A. Happ (5.35) - rank in the top 20 in the NL in run support. In short, the Phillies' offense is much better than the Indians', which should only help Lee's stats in the next two months. Lee owners should be extremely pleased with this deal.

Photo by The Associated Press

Josh Hamilton and other pleasant surprises

What's the secret to fantasy success? It's not drafting the big-name, big-money superstars. Anybody with half a brain and a cable modem can do that. It's collecting those unknown and unwanted diamonds in the rough, giving them a chance and watching them evolve into All-Stars. Mix in enough of them along with all the familiar names, toss in a little luck, and you've got yourself a championship.

Here area few of the pleasant surprises we've enjoyed so far this season:

Josh Hamilton's the feel-good story of the year, in fantasy and real life. He was on his way to a good year last year as a rookie with the Reds before injuries wiped him out after 90 games. He's on his way to Triple Crown contention (.312/19/80) this year with the Rangers.

Edinson Volquez, swapped from Texas to Cincinnati for Hamilton, has worked out just as well and might win the pitching version of the Triple Crown (10 wins, 2.08 ERA, 100 strikeouts). Wouldn't that be something?

Mike Mussina was supposed to ride off into the sunset, or maybe to the bullpen, for the Yankees this year. Instead, the 39-year-old with the 5.15 ERA last year is 10-6 with a 3.87 ERA, plus 58 strikeouts to just 15 walks.

Jason Giambi was supposed to be another Yankee playing out his monster contract. Maybe it's the magical mustache, but his 17 homers, third-best in the AL, say he's got some life left in his bat.

You may have gambled on George Sherrill for some saves. Hey, the O's closer's gig was his to lose, right? You probably weren't expecting 26 saves, second-most in MLB.

You draft Chipper Jones, you expect a high average. But .394? I think not. It won't last - he's got a .404 batting average on balls in play, which is ridiculously lucky - but it's been a big help for his owners so far.

Cliff Lee (11-1, 2.34, 90 Ks) is having the Cy Young-caliber year CC Sabathia was supposed to. And nobody drafted him. I'm still waiting for him to come down to Earth ...

Carlos Quentin hit five home runs in 81 games last year. He's got 19 this year through 79 games.

Justin Duchscherer leads the majors with a 1.91 ERA. Wasn't this dude a middle reliever? Yes, but the wise Billy Beane thought otherwise.

Milton Bradley is on pace for a career year - three more homers and 18 RBIs, he'll top his single-season highs from 2004. Perhaps he's finally found a home ... seven franchises later. I'm not betting on it though.

Another word on Cliff Lee

I'm standing by my analysis of Cliff Lee.

Even after he shut out my Yankees at the Stadium tonight.

Even after he whittled his ERA down to 0.81, lowest in the league.

Even after he didn't issue a base on balls.

Even after he improved to 6-0.

Yep, I'm still sticking to my guns. Lee can't possibly keep this up.

Can he?

Sell-high candidates: Lee, McLouth, Reynolds

Making fantasy baseball trades is a lot like wheeling and dealing on Wall Street. Buying low, selling high . . . it's all relevant in the fantasy world. The only difference is instead of doing business on the tension-filled floor of the New York Stock Exchange, we can make our deals via e-mail from the comfort of home while in our underwear.

Now, I'm no stock market expert - although I did win a mock stock market game in eighth grade based on my wise investment in a few thousand shares of Marvel Comics. That being said, I do have plenty of experience in fantasy trading. Some of my favorite swaps have involved sending overachieving, hot-starting players in exchange for proven commodities. You'd be surprised what you can get by dealing a player who's peaking early.

Here are a few great sell-high candidates:

g Left-hander Cliff Lee's been so off the charts this season it's ridiculous: 5-0, 0.96 ERA, 0.56 WHIP. Those are some sick numbers, especially when you consider the Cleveland Indians sent the guy down to the minors last year because he was so bad (5-8, 6.29 ERA) and didn't even bother to include him on their postseason roster.

Unfortunately, Lee's fast start is about as real as that YouTube video of Kobe Bryant jumping over a moving car. Lee's holding hitters to a .109 average, and when batters put the ball in play against him they're hitting just .151, an abnormally low average that signifies just how lucky the 29-year-old has been. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 16 (32 Ks and just two walks) is way out of line with his career ratio of about 2. Even in his best year in 2005, when he won 18 games with a 3.79 ERA, he didn't come close to this kind of dominance.

Lee may end up coming close to his '05 win total, and that's certainly helpful for fantasy purposes. But there's no way he can sustain these ratios. Deal him now while his value is astronomical, and you might be able to get a king's ransom in return.

g Some fantasy know-it-alls thought Nate McLouth might have a legit shot at being a 20-20 guy this year, based on last year's 13-homer, 22-steal campaign for the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, nobody knew this was coming: McLouth was hitting .339 with seven homers and 26 RBIs through Friday, ranking him ahead of star outfielders Ichiro Suzuki, Vladimir Guerrero and Grady Sizemore.

The whole 20-20 thing may still happen (even though he's swiped just two bags so far), and that's great for a guy you probably got on the cheap. But I'm pretty sure the average and power won't remain at this level. McLouth hit only 40 homers in more than 2,000 at-bats in the minor leagues, where he was a .292 hitter. He also hit .258 last year at the big-league level and .233 the year before that. Here's betting McLouth finishes the year somewhere around .280 with 20-25 homers - not bad, but not elite, either.

g Third baseman Mark Reynolds was a useful pickup last year, belting 17 homers in 111 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's been at it again this year, too, with seven round-trippers and 24 RBIs already, prompting visions of a 40-homer, 120-RBI season for the young man. But there are a few holes in that theory.

For one, Reynolds is striking out nearly three times as often as he walks and is locked in a tight battle with Ryan Howard for the league lead in Ks. He's prone to awful slumps (.162 with one homer in June 2007). His average has plummeted nearly 100 points from early April. And he could lose at-bats once Chad Tracy returns from the DL.

Reynolds can help your team, but it'll be a turbulent ride. I'm more inclined to put him on the trading block and travel a smoothly paved rode with somebody I trust.

Photo by The Associated Press