Making fantasy baseball trades is a lot like wheeling and dealing on Wall Street. Buying low, selling high . . . it's all relevant in the fantasy world. The only difference is instead of doing business on the tension-filled floor of the New York Stock Exchange, we can make our deals via e-mail from the comfort of home while in our underwear.
Now, I'm no stock market expert - although I did win a mock stock market game in eighth grade based on my wise investment in a few thousand shares of Marvel Comics. That being said, I do have plenty of experience in fantasy trading. Some of my favorite swaps have involved sending overachieving, hot-starting players in exchange for proven commodities. You'd be surprised what you can get by dealing a player who's peaking early.
Here are a few great sell-high candidates:
g Left-hander Cliff Lee's been so off the charts this season it's ridiculous: 5-0, 0.96 ERA, 0.56 WHIP. Those are some sick numbers, especially when you consider the Cleveland Indians sent the guy down to the minors last year because he was so bad (5-8, 6.29 ERA) and didn't even bother to include him on their postseason roster.
Unfortunately, Lee's fast start is about as real as that YouTube video of Kobe Bryant jumping over a moving car. Lee's holding hitters to a .109 average, and when batters put the ball in play against him they're hitting just .151, an abnormally low average that signifies just how lucky the 29-year-old has been. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 16 (32 Ks and just two walks) is way out of line with his career ratio of about 2. Even in his best year in 2005, when he won 18 games with a 3.79 ERA, he didn't come close to this kind of dominance.
Lee may end up coming close to his '05 win total, and that's certainly helpful for fantasy purposes. But there's no way he can sustain these ratios. Deal him now while his value is astronomical, and you might be able to get a king's ransom in return.
g Some fantasy know-it-alls thought Nate McLouth might have a legit shot at being a 20-20 guy this year, based on last year's 13-homer, 22-steal campaign for the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, nobody knew this was coming: McLouth was hitting .339 with seven homers and 26 RBIs through Friday, ranking him ahead of star outfielders Ichiro Suzuki, Vladimir Guerrero and Grady Sizemore.
The whole 20-20 thing may still happen (even though he's swiped just two bags so far), and that's great for a guy you probably got on the cheap. But I'm pretty sure the average and power won't remain at this level. McLouth hit only 40 homers in more than 2,000 at-bats in the minor leagues, where he was a .292 hitter. He also hit .258 last year at the big-league level and .233 the year before that. Here's betting McLouth finishes the year somewhere around .280 with 20-25 homers - not bad, but not elite, either.
g Third baseman Mark Reynolds was a useful pickup last year, belting 17 homers in 111 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's been at it again this year, too, with seven round-trippers and 24 RBIs already, prompting visions of a 40-homer, 120-RBI season for the young man. But there are a few holes in that theory.
For one, Reynolds is striking out nearly three times as often as he walks and is locked in a tight battle with Ryan Howard for the league lead in Ks. He's prone to awful slumps (.162 with one homer in June 2007). His average has plummeted nearly 100 points from early April. And he could lose at-bats once Chad Tracy returns from the DL.
Reynolds can help your team, but it'll be a turbulent ride. I'm more inclined to put him on the trading block and travel a smoothly paved rode with somebody I trust.
Photo by The Associated Press
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