They are known as the Undroppables.
Not to be confused with the untouchables – either the outcasts of Indian society or the pretty decent Kevin Costner flick – the Undroppables are the fantasy players who can’t be touched. Most leagues impose a short list of guys who cannot be released under just about any circumstances in the name of fair play. Makes sense. We wouldn't want to see some last-place team cutting ties with Alex Rodriguez just so a partner in crime can pick him up.
Another positive about the undroppables list is it forces owners to curb their George Steinbrenner tendencies and practice patience. No matter how much David Wright's homerless April hurt you, and regardless of how many sleepless nights you've had thinking about Alfonso Soriano's nine RBIs, you have no recourse but to stick with those two since they're on just about every undroppable list.
The idea is a good one, but it can only take you so far. Usually there are about 20 or fewer undroppables, which leaves about 90 percent of your roster up in the air. And that's great, because it creates lots of room for uncertainty and strategy we love in fantasy sports. It also leaves the door open for some really bad decisions. But that's where I come in.
Here are a few players who, while perhaps not officially undroppable, should be considered as such:
• Mariano Rivera: There was a stretch earlier this year when The Sandman's skills seemed to have eroded. His two blown saves and bloated ERA surely weren't what we signed up for when drafting the greatest closer ever. But it's hard to justify cutting bait on a guy who has been so dominant for so long, especially when others are banking on Joe Borowski and Octavio Dotel for saves. Show Mo some love.
• Carlos Delgado/Paul Konerko: These two are kind of NL and AL versions of one another. Both could hit 30 homers in their sleep. Both ended April hitting under .200. While neither will win a batting title, the power potential is still there. They've gone deep a combined 211 times the past three seasons. And isn't that why you drafted them in the first place?
• Richie Sexson: If you thought the previous two sluggers were having aggravating seasons, you obviously don't own Mr. Richmond Lockwood Sexson, a guy who can't even see the Mendoza Line from where he's sitting (.180 through Friday). The funny part is, you suffer through Sexson's ups and downs all year, then you look back and realize he had the most frustrating 35-homer, 100-RBI season ever.
• Scott Kazmir: Young Kaz hasn't quite been the emerging stud we expected this season. He's throwing way too many pitches because, he says, his mechanics are off, and he hasn't won at home since last July. The good news is that first part can be corrected easily enough. As for the second part, he does pitch for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Don't hold it against him. The Ks will come.
• Bobby Abreu: He hasn't been hitting much lately, but more disturbingly, he hasn't been walking. Expect that to change soon (career .409 on-base percentage). While he may never be a 30-30 guy again (can a Home Run Derby really mess you up that much?), he can still run a little, and he'll get lots of RBI chances wherever he hits in that New York Yankees lineup.
P.S. After I wrote this, Delgado hit two bombs, Sexson hit a three-run shot, and Abreu was 1-for-5 with a game-ending strikeout representing the tying run in a 3-1 loss. Two out of three ain't bad, I guess.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Friday, May 11, 2007
Blast off
Can a 44-year-old guy save your fantasy team?
Nope, it’s not Julio Franco – he’s 48, and he won’t help that much. I’m talking about Roger Clemens, the player whose comeback has New York Yankees fans and fantasy players alike buzzing. It’s probably too late to pick him up off the waiver wire in just about every league, but those who have him are wondering if the Rocket is their lift ticket to a championship.
First of all, if you had the foresight to draft Clemens, I commend you. It looks like your gamble paid off - unless of course you’re in a National League-only format and were hoping he’d stay close to home with the Houston Astros. Oops.
So what’s a safe projection for Clemens this year? It’s important to remember not only is he pitching an abbreviated season, he’s also switching back to the considerably tougher American League. If he returns in early June as expected and stays healthy, he’ll make roughly 22-25 starts and could win about half of them if all goes well.
There’s no way Clemens will approach his sub-3.00 ERAs of the past few seasons with Houston. The lineups of the AL East are simply too challenging, no matter how many Cy Young awards in your trophy case. Don’t forget Clemens, in his first stint with the Bombers from 1999-2003, averaged about a 4.00 ERA, and that was back when he was still a 30-something.
The run support in the Bronx will certainly be better than he received in Houston, though. And when we last saw him in the big leagues in 2006 he showed he could still overpower hitters (8.10 strikeouts per nine innings) and possessed good control (3.52 strikeout-to-walk ratio). The odds are Clemens, even at his advanced age, will still be an above-average AL pitcher.
But will he be a difference-maker? I suppose it depends on the rest of your staff. If you’re OK in the arms department, now might be a good time to dangle Clemens out there as trade bait and see what kind of offers you get. He’s probably a bit overvalued based on his reputation, but now that we know for sure he’ll be pitching 2007, you may find a trade partner who’s expecting the Rocket to blast to the past.
If you can’t get your hands on Clemens, here are some other helpful starters who may be available:
• James Shields might be that elusive second starter the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have yearned for. The unheralded youngster was fourth in the AL in strikeouts (49) through Thursday and is coming off a nine-inning scoreless outing against the Baltimore Orioles.
• Fausto Carmona failed in his stint as a reliever for the Cleveland Indians last year, but don’t let that sour your opinion. The 23-year-old’s posted good numbers (3-1, 2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) filling in for injured Tribe starters, first Cliff Lee and now Jake Westbrook, who’s on the disabled list for three to five weeks.
• Tom Gorzelanny is the Pittsburgh Pirates’ other talented, young left-hander, but he’s been much better than “ace” Zach Duke. His stats are quite respectable (4-2, 2.72 ERA, 29/13 K/BB ratio), so don’t hesitate to give him a try.
Nope, it’s not Julio Franco – he’s 48, and he won’t help that much. I’m talking about Roger Clemens, the player whose comeback has New York Yankees fans and fantasy players alike buzzing. It’s probably too late to pick him up off the waiver wire in just about every league, but those who have him are wondering if the Rocket is their lift ticket to a championship.
First of all, if you had the foresight to draft Clemens, I commend you. It looks like your gamble paid off - unless of course you’re in a National League-only format and were hoping he’d stay close to home with the Houston Astros. Oops.
So what’s a safe projection for Clemens this year? It’s important to remember not only is he pitching an abbreviated season, he’s also switching back to the considerably tougher American League. If he returns in early June as expected and stays healthy, he’ll make roughly 22-25 starts and could win about half of them if all goes well.
There’s no way Clemens will approach his sub-3.00 ERAs of the past few seasons with Houston. The lineups of the AL East are simply too challenging, no matter how many Cy Young awards in your trophy case. Don’t forget Clemens, in his first stint with the Bombers from 1999-2003, averaged about a 4.00 ERA, and that was back when he was still a 30-something.
The run support in the Bronx will certainly be better than he received in Houston, though. And when we last saw him in the big leagues in 2006 he showed he could still overpower hitters (8.10 strikeouts per nine innings) and possessed good control (3.52 strikeout-to-walk ratio). The odds are Clemens, even at his advanced age, will still be an above-average AL pitcher.
But will he be a difference-maker? I suppose it depends on the rest of your staff. If you’re OK in the arms department, now might be a good time to dangle Clemens out there as trade bait and see what kind of offers you get. He’s probably a bit overvalued based on his reputation, but now that we know for sure he’ll be pitching 2007, you may find a trade partner who’s expecting the Rocket to blast to the past.
If you can’t get your hands on Clemens, here are some other helpful starters who may be available:
• James Shields might be that elusive second starter the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have yearned for. The unheralded youngster was fourth in the AL in strikeouts (49) through Thursday and is coming off a nine-inning scoreless outing against the Baltimore Orioles.
• Fausto Carmona failed in his stint as a reliever for the Cleveland Indians last year, but don’t let that sour your opinion. The 23-year-old’s posted good numbers (3-1, 2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) filling in for injured Tribe starters, first Cliff Lee and now Jake Westbrook, who’s on the disabled list for three to five weeks.
• Tom Gorzelanny is the Pittsburgh Pirates’ other talented, young left-hander, but he’s been much better than “ace” Zach Duke. His stats are quite respectable (4-2, 2.72 ERA, 29/13 K/BB ratio), so don’t hesitate to give him a try.
Saturday, May 05, 2007
Is there a Draft in here?
They say it can take a few years to really analyze an NFL Draft, but in fantasy, we don't have that luxury. We've got to identify the impact players right away in preparation for our own draft. Here are some of the big names taken this year and how they'll fit into your fantasy plans in '07:
• QB JaMarcus Russell to Raiders: Best-case scenario, Russell is a quick learner, takes the starting job early in the season and makes a Vince Young-type impact. Worst-case scenario: he struggles to adjust or, more likely, he gets thrown into the fire but that offensive line crumbles again. Russell is a nice speculative pick as a No. 2 QB for now, but you'll want a proven starter ahead of him.
• WR Calvin Johnson to Lions: Johnson may make the biggest fantasy impact of this rookie class, but take that with a grain of salt. Rookie WRs are anything but a sure but, and Marques Colston is the exception, not the rule. I'm a little more excited about the boost Roy Williams and, to a lesser extent Jon Kitna, will get from adding Johnson to the lineup. Still, Mike Martz will find ways to get Johnson the ball, so that makes him a No. 3 fantasy WR with a ton of upside. He's an obvious target in keeper leagues.
• RB Adrian Peterson to Vikings: Here's another keeper league no-brainer. The bad news is he'll most likely split carries with workhorse Chester Taylor. While the two-back platoon didn't hurt 2006 rookies Laurence Maroney or Reggie Bush that much, the Vikings' offense (perhaps led by Tarvaris Jackson) won't match the Patriots' last year, and Peterson won't contribute in the passing game the way Bush did. Don't get me wrong, I think Peterson will be a star in due time, but factor in a lingering collar bone injury and he might not have a ton of value in 2007 (unless Taylor goes down). For now, treat him as a third or fourth RB.
• WR Ted Ginn Jr. to Dolphins: Wow, Fins fans really weren't happy with this pick, huh? The reason is it's hard to envision Ginn as a stud No. 1 NFL receiver (like, say, Chris Chambers) - he just hasn't demonstrated those skills yet. Miami likes his raw talent and speed and hopes he can make a Devin Hester-type impact on special teams, but that isn't exactly helpful in fantasy terms. He's also been slow to recover from an ankle injury suffered in the BCS title game. Throw in the real possibility we'll see a whole lot of Cleo Lemon under center this year, and Ginn is nothing more than a late-round flier for now.
• RB Marshawn Lynch to Bills: Buffalo had a glaring need in its backfield after dealing Willis McGahee to Baltimore, and it filled that need by making Lynch the second RB taken in the draft. Lynch might not be as talented as draftmate Peterson, but he has the potential to be the more valuable fantasy rookie RB in 2007. That's because he has a good chance of supplanting Anthony Thomas as the Bills' feature back with a good showing in training camp, or at the very least getting a majority of the carries in a platoon system.
• QB Brady Quinn to Browns: Cleveland got its man, albeit later than most draft gurus predicted. Many of those same gurus seem to think Quinn has the skills to compete right away in the NFL. It remains to be seen if he can beat out Charlie Frye for the starting gig, but you have to figure we'll see Quinn starting at some point in '07. The addition of RB Jamal Lewis and rookie OL Joe Thomas will help boost what had been a dismal offense, and TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards are also exciting pieces. If everything goes right, Quinn might be able to make the same kind of impact Matt Leinart did last year, so he'd be an intriguing fantasy backup.
• TE Greg Olsen to Bears: Olsen could eventually be a serious receiving threat in the mold of Todd Heap and fellow Miami product Jeremy Shockey. He has the size (6-4, 250) and speed (4.5 in the 40) to really help QB Rex Grossman, but it will take him time to adjust to the NFL, and Desmond Clark will probably still take plenty of snaps at TE. It's a pretty deep position, so consider Olsen a No. 2 with some upside.
• WR Randy Moss to Patriots: He's not a rookie, but he stole the headlines at the draft when Oakland dealt the malcontent for a fourth-round pick. Moss' days out West were disastrous at best, and he'll try to resurrect his career in New England. I could see this going either way: A) Moss is motivated and happy and flourishes with a living, breathing QB throwing him the ball, gets 1,000 yards and becomes a model citizen in the hopes of winning a championship; or B) isn't happy about sharing the ball with Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown and Ben Watson, and those nagging injuries and negative tendencies pop up again. So you can roll the dice by taking Moss as your No. 2, just recognize the risks and rewards involved.
• QB JaMarcus Russell to Raiders: Best-case scenario, Russell is a quick learner, takes the starting job early in the season and makes a Vince Young-type impact. Worst-case scenario: he struggles to adjust or, more likely, he gets thrown into the fire but that offensive line crumbles again. Russell is a nice speculative pick as a No. 2 QB for now, but you'll want a proven starter ahead of him.
• WR Calvin Johnson to Lions: Johnson may make the biggest fantasy impact of this rookie class, but take that with a grain of salt. Rookie WRs are anything but a sure but, and Marques Colston is the exception, not the rule. I'm a little more excited about the boost Roy Williams and, to a lesser extent Jon Kitna, will get from adding Johnson to the lineup. Still, Mike Martz will find ways to get Johnson the ball, so that makes him a No. 3 fantasy WR with a ton of upside. He's an obvious target in keeper leagues.
• RB Adrian Peterson to Vikings: Here's another keeper league no-brainer. The bad news is he'll most likely split carries with workhorse Chester Taylor. While the two-back platoon didn't hurt 2006 rookies Laurence Maroney or Reggie Bush that much, the Vikings' offense (perhaps led by Tarvaris Jackson) won't match the Patriots' last year, and Peterson won't contribute in the passing game the way Bush did. Don't get me wrong, I think Peterson will be a star in due time, but factor in a lingering collar bone injury and he might not have a ton of value in 2007 (unless Taylor goes down). For now, treat him as a third or fourth RB.
• WR Ted Ginn Jr. to Dolphins: Wow, Fins fans really weren't happy with this pick, huh? The reason is it's hard to envision Ginn as a stud No. 1 NFL receiver (like, say, Chris Chambers) - he just hasn't demonstrated those skills yet. Miami likes his raw talent and speed and hopes he can make a Devin Hester-type impact on special teams, but that isn't exactly helpful in fantasy terms. He's also been slow to recover from an ankle injury suffered in the BCS title game. Throw in the real possibility we'll see a whole lot of Cleo Lemon under center this year, and Ginn is nothing more than a late-round flier for now.
• RB Marshawn Lynch to Bills: Buffalo had a glaring need in its backfield after dealing Willis McGahee to Baltimore, and it filled that need by making Lynch the second RB taken in the draft. Lynch might not be as talented as draftmate Peterson, but he has the potential to be the more valuable fantasy rookie RB in 2007. That's because he has a good chance of supplanting Anthony Thomas as the Bills' feature back with a good showing in training camp, or at the very least getting a majority of the carries in a platoon system.
• QB Brady Quinn to Browns: Cleveland got its man, albeit later than most draft gurus predicted. Many of those same gurus seem to think Quinn has the skills to compete right away in the NFL. It remains to be seen if he can beat out Charlie Frye for the starting gig, but you have to figure we'll see Quinn starting at some point in '07. The addition of RB Jamal Lewis and rookie OL Joe Thomas will help boost what had been a dismal offense, and TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards are also exciting pieces. If everything goes right, Quinn might be able to make the same kind of impact Matt Leinart did last year, so he'd be an intriguing fantasy backup.
• TE Greg Olsen to Bears: Olsen could eventually be a serious receiving threat in the mold of Todd Heap and fellow Miami product Jeremy Shockey. He has the size (6-4, 250) and speed (4.5 in the 40) to really help QB Rex Grossman, but it will take him time to adjust to the NFL, and Desmond Clark will probably still take plenty of snaps at TE. It's a pretty deep position, so consider Olsen a No. 2 with some upside.
• WR Randy Moss to Patriots: He's not a rookie, but he stole the headlines at the draft when Oakland dealt the malcontent for a fourth-round pick. Moss' days out West were disastrous at best, and he'll try to resurrect his career in New England. I could see this going either way: A) Moss is motivated and happy and flourishes with a living, breathing QB throwing him the ball, gets 1,000 yards and becomes a model citizen in the hopes of winning a championship; or B) isn't happy about sharing the ball with Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown and Ben Watson, and those nagging injuries and negative tendencies pop up again. So you can roll the dice by taking Moss as your No. 2, just recognize the risks and rewards involved.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Back to the blog
Hey, sorry about the lack of blogging lately, I just got back from my honeymoon a few days ago. Internet access was a little pricey at our place in Jamaica, and with all the Cricket World Cup action clogging up the TV, it was a little hard to keep up with baseball. We did get ESPN, so when my beautiful bride and I weren't preoccupied with, ahem, other things (you know, like Red Stripe, rum punch, strawberry daquiris ...) I got to catch a few highlights here and there. Apparently the Yankees didn't have a very good April or something?
Anyway, the past couple days I've tried to play catch up. My fantasy team really tanked the first month of the season but it's finally showing some signs of life. Mark Teixeira hit two homers in two days last week against the Blue Jays. I thought he could jack 40 this year, but I'll settle for 35. Alfonso Soriano finally has a pulse now that the calendar's flipped. Mariano Rivera isn't washed up yet - not one but two saves earlier today in a doubleheader as he slowly chipped away at that ERA.
One guy who's helping me out: Barry Bonds. Picked him up as my fourth OF on draft day, now I'm pretty much starting him on a daily basis, except on day games after night games of course. I figured he'd be a little undervalued in most drafts, but I really didn't anticipate this kind of production. Let's hope that George Mitchell investigation keeps taking its sweet old time.
Some other random thoughts:
• Seems like Chris Carpenter may have dodged a bullet. For a while it seemed like that elbow injury could have taken a pretty serious turn, but he's reported no problems in his rehab and could be back on the mound by next week. Then again, with the way the Cards' season has gone so far that elbow might explode any second.
• Bob Wickman's DL stint is good news for savvy owners who stashed Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez on their roster. The two young guys will split the save opportunities in some fashion ... should be interesting to see how Bobby Cox uses them, and if Wickman will even have a job when he gets back.
• How bittersweet was Phil Hughes' last start? You're watching him mow down the Rangers, patting yourself on the back for grabbing this year's Francisco Liriano, and then - pop goes the hamstring. Out for 4-6 weeks, or more. Take heart though ... I'm not a medical expert of any kind, but I just don't think it's a terribly serious injury. The Yanks are going to proceed with extreme caution. In fact, they wouldn't have even brought Hughes up this early if the rest of the Bombers' starters weren't dropping like flies. Originally the thinking was he'd be a late-season spark, and I still think he can be just that. Keep him around if you can spare the roster space.
Anyway, the past couple days I've tried to play catch up. My fantasy team really tanked the first month of the season but it's finally showing some signs of life. Mark Teixeira hit two homers in two days last week against the Blue Jays. I thought he could jack 40 this year, but I'll settle for 35. Alfonso Soriano finally has a pulse now that the calendar's flipped. Mariano Rivera isn't washed up yet - not one but two saves earlier today in a doubleheader as he slowly chipped away at that ERA.
One guy who's helping me out: Barry Bonds. Picked him up as my fourth OF on draft day, now I'm pretty much starting him on a daily basis, except on day games after night games of course. I figured he'd be a little undervalued in most drafts, but I really didn't anticipate this kind of production. Let's hope that George Mitchell investigation keeps taking its sweet old time.
Some other random thoughts:
• Seems like Chris Carpenter may have dodged a bullet. For a while it seemed like that elbow injury could have taken a pretty serious turn, but he's reported no problems in his rehab and could be back on the mound by next week. Then again, with the way the Cards' season has gone so far that elbow might explode any second.
• Bob Wickman's DL stint is good news for savvy owners who stashed Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez on their roster. The two young guys will split the save opportunities in some fashion ... should be interesting to see how Bobby Cox uses them, and if Wickman will even have a job when he gets back.
• How bittersweet was Phil Hughes' last start? You're watching him mow down the Rangers, patting yourself on the back for grabbing this year's Francisco Liriano, and then - pop goes the hamstring. Out for 4-6 weeks, or more. Take heart though ... I'm not a medical expert of any kind, but I just don't think it's a terribly serious injury. The Yanks are going to proceed with extreme caution. In fact, they wouldn't have even brought Hughes up this early if the rest of the Bombers' starters weren't dropping like flies. Originally the thinking was he'd be a late-season spark, and I still think he can be just that. Keep him around if you can spare the roster space.
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