BRADENTON, Fla. - Ryan Howard owners can breathe easy.
Howard, suffering through a 1-for-23 slump, broke out in a huge way Thursday by sending a Shawn Chacon offering an estimated 420 feet for a towering home run in the Phillies' 5-5 tie with the Pirates at McKechnie Field.
Howard's been struggling to find his groove this spring, and a strained thigh hasn't helped him reach his comfort level. The hefty lefty is dealing with giant expectations this year, making his disappointing March all the more discouraging.
I warned in a column earlier this year that Howard might be a bust in 2007. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I still think Howard is capable of another monster season, but those expecting him to just unleash 70 homers season might need to slow down. The league will adjust to him, he'll get walked, and he'll have his slumps, as we've seen this spring.
That being said, Thursday's homer was a reminder of Howard's tremendous power potential, and he's sure to launch his fair share of balls out of Citizen's Bank Park this season. I'm a little more concerned about the dude batting behind him, Pat Burrell, a guy Philly fans love to hate. Burrell was experimenting with contact lenses earlier this spring after some poor results on a vision test, and his career average .258 average isn't exactly ideal. The 30-year-old OF did homer immediately after Howard on Thursday, and despite the crappy average he's still a good bet for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, so all hope is not lost.
Some other observations from Thursday's game:
-Ronny Paulino continues to impress. The Pittsburgh catcher stroked a double, and he's now batting .500 this spring. I know you can't read a lot into what happens in Grapefruit League games, but when you consider' Paulino's hot spring along with his breakout 2006, he's clearly a catcher on the rise. Consider him a No. 2 guy for now in mixed leagues and a very nice NL-only option; we may have to move him into the top 10 catchers for 2008 as some of the old stand-bys begin to fade away.
-It was a scary moment when Chacon took a line drive from the Phils' Michael Bourn off the chest and glove in the first inning. It's hard to understand exactly how fast the ball travels back at a pitcher on plays like that unless you see it live, and from our vantage point next to the visiting dugout, almost at field level (thanks to my pal Doug for the sweet ticket), it was an eye-opener.
-Spotted in the stands: Dallas Green, former Phillies manager and owner of one of the coolest names in baseball.
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Friday, March 23, 2007
Spring Report No. 4
SARASOTA, Fla. - You know someone's gonna do it. Somebody in your league is going to draft Ken Griffey Jr.
It's only a matter of time before Junior's name gets called, and then the jokes are gonna start flying. Calling him injury-prone is an understatement at this point, and he even got started early this year, breaking his hand while wrestling with his kids on the family's yacht in the offseason (coulda happened to any of us).
So should YOU be the one who takes a chance on Griffey this year? Maybe you convince yourself he got the yearly injury out of the way already. And hey, he hasn't lost that sweet home run swing, even after all these years (18, do you believe it?!).
Then reality begins to set in. Griffey hasn't had 500 at-bats in a season since 2000. He was on the bench yet again Thursday against the New York Yankees and has yet to make an appearance this spring. And this week the Reds announced he's moving to right field - a change that hasn't exactly made him jump for joy but is a surefire sign his career is winding down.
You don't want to be the one who gets suckered in by Griffey this time around, but that doesn't mean you have to avoid him at all costs. Instead of considering him a once-great player in decline, treat him more like an unproven rookie. He should be no more than your fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues, but look at some of the other guys available to fill those slots - Brian Giles, Moises Alou, Milton Bradley, and so on. Do any of those stiffs have the potential to hit 40 home runs? I think not. In a perfect world, Griff does, no matter how unlikely that scenario might be.
Don't let Griffey break your heart. But if you haven't taken many risks with your lineup, and you can afford to dump him the moment a hamstring tears or a tendon snaps, he's not a terrible pick. No matter how much they laugh at you on draft day.
Some other observations from Reds camp:
- Griffey's position change isn't the only interesting story in the Rays outfield. Josh Hamilton - the 1999 No. 1 overall draft pick by the Devil Rays who had his career derailed by drug addiction - has been the feel-good story this spring as he attempts a comeback. Hamilton, still just 25, has taken steps to get his life back in order and was reinstated by MLB last season. He was taken by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft this year, then the Reds acquired him and decided to give him another chance, and they haven't been disappointed. He's been one of the hottest hitters in the Grapefruit League (.527 in 46 at-bats) as he gets an extended look in right with Griffey still on the shelf. He's a five-tool player, and he seems to have a great shot at making the Opening Day roster (the Reds will lose him if he doesn't). We've all seen springtime All-Stars who fizzle in the regular season, and we know the demons of addiction will always be with him, but Hamilton is still a player who bears watching this year.
-Carl Pavano had a decent, if underwhelming, start Thursday (three runs, eight hits in 4.1 innings). He did show a little tenacity by getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the first inning unscathed, and perhaps best of all, he didn't get injured. I'm still not sold on the guy, though (neither are his teammates), so I'd suggest a wait-and-see approach.
-Derek Jeter showed off some of his trademark hustle in the middle of Thursday's game when he and Alex Rodriguez bolted off the field to avoid a giant swarm of bees making its way to the outfield. I haven't checked out the New York tabloids yet, but I didn't exactly see Jeter attempt to save A-Rod from the swarm, so their friendship may have reached a new low.
It's only a matter of time before Junior's name gets called, and then the jokes are gonna start flying. Calling him injury-prone is an understatement at this point, and he even got started early this year, breaking his hand while wrestling with his kids on the family's yacht in the offseason (coulda happened to any of us).
So should YOU be the one who takes a chance on Griffey this year? Maybe you convince yourself he got the yearly injury out of the way already. And hey, he hasn't lost that sweet home run swing, even after all these years (18, do you believe it?!).
Then reality begins to set in. Griffey hasn't had 500 at-bats in a season since 2000. He was on the bench yet again Thursday against the New York Yankees and has yet to make an appearance this spring. And this week the Reds announced he's moving to right field - a change that hasn't exactly made him jump for joy but is a surefire sign his career is winding down.
You don't want to be the one who gets suckered in by Griffey this time around, but that doesn't mean you have to avoid him at all costs. Instead of considering him a once-great player in decline, treat him more like an unproven rookie. He should be no more than your fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues, but look at some of the other guys available to fill those slots - Brian Giles, Moises Alou, Milton Bradley, and so on. Do any of those stiffs have the potential to hit 40 home runs? I think not. In a perfect world, Griff does, no matter how unlikely that scenario might be.
Don't let Griffey break your heart. But if you haven't taken many risks with your lineup, and you can afford to dump him the moment a hamstring tears or a tendon snaps, he's not a terrible pick. No matter how much they laugh at you on draft day.
Some other observations from Reds camp:
- Griffey's position change isn't the only interesting story in the Rays outfield. Josh Hamilton - the 1999 No. 1 overall draft pick by the Devil Rays who had his career derailed by drug addiction - has been the feel-good story this spring as he attempts a comeback. Hamilton, still just 25, has taken steps to get his life back in order and was reinstated by MLB last season. He was taken by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft this year, then the Reds acquired him and decided to give him another chance, and they haven't been disappointed. He's been one of the hottest hitters in the Grapefruit League (.527 in 46 at-bats) as he gets an extended look in right with Griffey still on the shelf. He's a five-tool player, and he seems to have a great shot at making the Opening Day roster (the Reds will lose him if he doesn't). We've all seen springtime All-Stars who fizzle in the regular season, and we know the demons of addiction will always be with him, but Hamilton is still a player who bears watching this year.
-Carl Pavano had a decent, if underwhelming, start Thursday (three runs, eight hits in 4.1 innings). He did show a little tenacity by getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the first inning unscathed, and perhaps best of all, he didn't get injured. I'm still not sold on the guy, though (neither are his teammates), so I'd suggest a wait-and-see approach.
-Derek Jeter showed off some of his trademark hustle in the middle of Thursday's game when he and Alex Rodriguez bolted off the field to avoid a giant swarm of bees making its way to the outfield. I haven't checked out the New York tabloids yet, but I didn't exactly see Jeter attempt to save A-Rod from the swarm, so their friendship may have reached a new low.
Grand Pappy
Did today's Jonathan Papelbon news grab your attention?
If you already held your draft and picked up young Paps, a so-so starting pitcher on your roster just turned into a lights-out closer just in the blink of an eye. We already know the background: elite rookie closer gets converted into middle-of-the-rotation starter in his second year in an effort to save a problematic shoulder. The idea behind Boston's grand experiment was to save Papelbon from the erratic nature of the bullpen and give him an every-fifth-day routine so the Sox could better control his innings and perhaps save him from potential injury. So much for that plan.
We don't exactly know what spurred this move. The Sox were pretty steadfast about keeping Papelbon in the rotation, even though there was never any definitive proof that starting would be better for the kid's health. Apparently Papelbon requested the move, and perhaps the recent injury to Mike Timlin and the uncertainty surrounding Joel Piniero made the decision a little easier for Theo and the braintrust.
Anyway, I already had Papelbon pegged as a potential bust, but you can scratch that idea. Even with the health issues he experienced at the end of the year, he's still one of the top closers available, probably in the top 5. If you still haven't drafted, treat him as such, and if you already have him on your team, congratulations, you lucky dog.
If you already held your draft and picked up young Paps, a so-so starting pitcher on your roster just turned into a lights-out closer just in the blink of an eye. We already know the background: elite rookie closer gets converted into middle-of-the-rotation starter in his second year in an effort to save a problematic shoulder. The idea behind Boston's grand experiment was to save Papelbon from the erratic nature of the bullpen and give him an every-fifth-day routine so the Sox could better control his innings and perhaps save him from potential injury. So much for that plan.
We don't exactly know what spurred this move. The Sox were pretty steadfast about keeping Papelbon in the rotation, even though there was never any definitive proof that starting would be better for the kid's health. Apparently Papelbon requested the move, and perhaps the recent injury to Mike Timlin and the uncertainty surrounding Joel Piniero made the decision a little easier for Theo and the braintrust.
Anyway, I already had Papelbon pegged as a potential bust, but you can scratch that idea. Even with the health issues he experienced at the end of the year, he's still one of the top closers available, probably in the top 5. If you still haven't drafted, treat him as such, and if you already have him on your team, congratulations, you lucky dog.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Spring report No. 3
BRADENTON, Fla. - Poor Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Will they ever catch a break?
This team's already into its second decade of underachieving - 14 straight losing seasons. Will 2007 be any different? Hard to say. But it's not like there isn't any talent there, and that's what us fantasy nerds are interested in.
Start with OF Jason Bay, the Buccos' most serious fantasy threat. The late-blooming Canadian had offseason knee surgery, and that fact coupled with his big drop-off in steals from 2005 to 2006 (21-11) has me a little concerned in that department. However, his power numbers should be just fine, especially with the addition of impact bat Adam LaRoche in the lineup this season. Bay's a solid second- or third-rounder and would be a fine OF to build around.
As for LaRoche, his breakout '05 campaign (.285/32/90) with the Braves made him a valuable trading chip, and the Pirates gave up closer Mike Gonzalez to get him. The first baseman will bat cleanup in front of Bay in the hopes he'll give a pretty stagnant offense some life. It remains to be seen if the still-developing 27-year-old will turn it up a notch at the plate, and it's probably a little premature to say the lefty will hit 40 homers this year playing home games at PNC Park. Still, I don't think similar production to last year is out of the question, which means he's a no-brainer for NL-only leagues and a good backup 1B in mixed leagues.
C Ronny Paulino, who doubled and hit a two-run homer Saturday in a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, is an up-and-coming hitter who deserves a look in deep leagues. 3B Freddy Sanchez opened everybody's eyes by winning the NL batting title (.347) last year, and while he could also be eligible at 2B, which would boost his value, he's pretty much a one-stat wonder. Ditto goes for leadoff man Chris Duffy (26 steals in 84 games last year), who gives you speed but not much else - although we know how valuable speed is in this game.
There are a ton of young arms in the rotation, but will any of them take the leap this year? Lefty and staff "ace" Zach Duke hasn't come along as fast as the Pirates had hoped. Righty Ian Snell's had a solid spring and offers some strikeout potential as a No. 2. And Tom Gorzelanny, another lefty, has a bunch of talent too. It's your guess as to which of them - if any - make the jump in '07.
Looking for a really deep sleeper? First baseman Brad Eldred has been tearing it up in the Grapefruit League this spring, batting .524 with four homers so far. He was 3-for-4 with two doubles Saturday and showed surprising speed and athleticism for a big guy (6-5, 275 pounds). The Pirates even gave him a tryout in right field, since he's blocked by LaRoche at first. The man they call "Big Country" seems to be an all-or-nothing type guy who swings for the fences, but he's kind of intriguing. He'll likely begin the year in the minors since a broken thumb pretty much wiped out his 2006 season, and he still needs some polishing. But if he proves himself to be at least passable in the outfield, we could see him again there soon in the majors, which would put him in a tie with Adam Dunn as the majors' heaviest outfielder. For real.
Some other observations:
-We've already discussed the fantasy outlook for Pirates closer Salomon Torres. He didn't help ease my mind after surrendering a go-ahead, two-run homer in the nint to pinch-hitter Eric Duncan, once considered the Yankees' best prospect. Be ready, Matt Capps.
-It was another up-and-down outing for Yankees lefty Kei Igawa, who ran into some trouble for the second straight game: Three innings, five hits, four strikeouts, no walks, two runs allowed (on Paulino's homer). The positive is he showed some poise and found the strike zone, which will be key once he gets to the Bronx. If he can earn Joe Torre's trust and keep himself in games long enough, the offensive support is there to at least get him some wins.
-A Yankees fan was seen trying to get Alex Rodriguez to sign a copy of his children's book. It's worth nothing the fan appeared to be in his mid-40s and had no children present with him.
This team's already into its second decade of underachieving - 14 straight losing seasons. Will 2007 be any different? Hard to say. But it's not like there isn't any talent there, and that's what us fantasy nerds are interested in.
Start with OF Jason Bay, the Buccos' most serious fantasy threat. The late-blooming Canadian had offseason knee surgery, and that fact coupled with his big drop-off in steals from 2005 to 2006 (21-11) has me a little concerned in that department. However, his power numbers should be just fine, especially with the addition of impact bat Adam LaRoche in the lineup this season. Bay's a solid second- or third-rounder and would be a fine OF to build around.
As for LaRoche, his breakout '05 campaign (.285/32/90) with the Braves made him a valuable trading chip, and the Pirates gave up closer Mike Gonzalez to get him. The first baseman will bat cleanup in front of Bay in the hopes he'll give a pretty stagnant offense some life. It remains to be seen if the still-developing 27-year-old will turn it up a notch at the plate, and it's probably a little premature to say the lefty will hit 40 homers this year playing home games at PNC Park. Still, I don't think similar production to last year is out of the question, which means he's a no-brainer for NL-only leagues and a good backup 1B in mixed leagues.
C Ronny Paulino, who doubled and hit a two-run homer Saturday in a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, is an up-and-coming hitter who deserves a look in deep leagues. 3B Freddy Sanchez opened everybody's eyes by winning the NL batting title (.347) last year, and while he could also be eligible at 2B, which would boost his value, he's pretty much a one-stat wonder. Ditto goes for leadoff man Chris Duffy (26 steals in 84 games last year), who gives you speed but not much else - although we know how valuable speed is in this game.
There are a ton of young arms in the rotation, but will any of them take the leap this year? Lefty and staff "ace" Zach Duke hasn't come along as fast as the Pirates had hoped. Righty Ian Snell's had a solid spring and offers some strikeout potential as a No. 2. And Tom Gorzelanny, another lefty, has a bunch of talent too. It's your guess as to which of them - if any - make the jump in '07.
Looking for a really deep sleeper? First baseman Brad Eldred has been tearing it up in the Grapefruit League this spring, batting .524 with four homers so far. He was 3-for-4 with two doubles Saturday and showed surprising speed and athleticism for a big guy (6-5, 275 pounds). The Pirates even gave him a tryout in right field, since he's blocked by LaRoche at first. The man they call "Big Country" seems to be an all-or-nothing type guy who swings for the fences, but he's kind of intriguing. He'll likely begin the year in the minors since a broken thumb pretty much wiped out his 2006 season, and he still needs some polishing. But if he proves himself to be at least passable in the outfield, we could see him again there soon in the majors, which would put him in a tie with Adam Dunn as the majors' heaviest outfielder. For real.
Some other observations:
-We've already discussed the fantasy outlook for Pirates closer Salomon Torres. He didn't help ease my mind after surrendering a go-ahead, two-run homer in the nint to pinch-hitter Eric Duncan, once considered the Yankees' best prospect. Be ready, Matt Capps.
-It was another up-and-down outing for Yankees lefty Kei Igawa, who ran into some trouble for the second straight game: Three innings, five hits, four strikeouts, no walks, two runs allowed (on Paulino's homer). The positive is he showed some poise and found the strike zone, which will be key once he gets to the Bronx. If he can earn Joe Torre's trust and keep himself in games long enough, the offensive support is there to at least get him some wins.
-A Yankees fan was seen trying to get Alex Rodriguez to sign a copy of his children's book. It's worth nothing the fan appeared to be in his mid-40s and had no children present with him.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Football frenzy
With all the NFL free agent signings and trades going down this past week, I can't help but turn my attention to a little fantasy football, offseason edition. These owners are stocking up on running backs the way old people buy Chef Boyardee when a hurricane or snowstorm is about to hit. Anyway, how about we take a look at some moves that will have fantasy implications? Thinking about this stuff now will put you ahead of the game come September ...
JAMAL LEWIS TO BROWNS
Lewis is pretty far removed from his 2,000-yard season, and this move to Cleveland isn't going to help his cause. The Brownies were last in the league in rushing last year and have had exactly one 1,000-yard rusher (Reuben Droughns, 2005) since 19-freakin'-85. Lewis is an RB2 at best now, and I'd look for a slight decline in his stats next year.
WILLIS McGAHEE TO RAVENS
The Ravens essentially replaced Lewis with McGahee, a more explosive runner who's two years younger. McGahee does come attached to some injury risk, but he definitely deserves a fantasy upgrade after moving to a solid, ball-control offense that features a much better offensive line. McGahee might even be a low-level fantasy No. 1 next year.
TRAVIS HENRY TO BRONCOS
Henry also improved his fantasy standing by moving to an offense that has a knack for creating star tailbacks. Assuming he keeps his nose clean, Henry should take a firm hold of the starting job now that Tatum Bell is out of the picture (see below). A 1,200- or 1,300-yard campaign is basically a lock, as long as Mike Shanahan doesn't pull his old revolving-door trick with the backfield again.
THOMAS JONES TO JETS
Jones' value should hold steady after his trade to New York. Figure he'll be used much the same way as he was the past two years in Chicago, with young Leon Washington filling the Cedric Benson role as a change-of-pace back. The real question concerns Benson, who was supposed to have already replaced Jones as the Bears' feature back, oh, about two years ago. Can he handle the new role? I'm a little skeptical right now.
REUBEN DROUGHNS TO GIANTS
Droughns was up-and-down as the primary tailback in Cleveland. Now he comes to the Giants, who will attempt to replace Tiki Barber with some combination of himself and Brandon Jacobs. The Giants think highly of the young, bruising Jacobs (new GM Jerry Reese referred to Droughns as a "complement" to Jacobs), but the two may enter some kind of competition for the starting role. Still, I expect a situation similar to the one in Indianapolis this past season, with Jacobs getting about two-thirds of the carries as he slowly adjusts to a feature role (a la Joseph Addai) while the veteran Droughns, like Dominic Rhodes, gets the rest of the work. Both Droughns and Jacobs will be worth a mid-round pick, and we'll see how the situation unfolds.
DOMINIC RHODES TO RAIDERS
Speaking of Rhodes, he goes from the world champs to the league's worst team in '06, and cashes in by doing so. It's unclear what the Silver & Black have in mind for the tandem of Rhodes and LaMont Jordan, but it'll likely be some kind of two-headed attack (or even three-headed if you count recently signed FB Justin Griffith). Judging by the Raiders' recent track record, Rhodes probably won't enjoy the same success he's had with the Colts, and Jordan should be downgraded a peg as well - as if he already wasn't in most of our minds already.
RANDY McMICHAEL TO RAMS
Love this move for St. Louis. Athletic, pass-catching tight ends are kind of like the iPods of the NFL, everybody's got to have one, and Joe Klopfenstein didn't give the Rams that dimension last season. McMichael certainly does. He'll catch a lot of balls, and I expect him to flourish under coach Scott Linehan, his former offensive coordinator in Miami. Mark McMichael down as a legit No. 1 fantasy TE.
AHMAN GREEN TO TEXANS
Green was surprisingly serviceable last season as the feature back on a bad Packers team. He'll probably be serviceable again as the feature back on a bad Texans team next year, even though some younger guys (including Dominick Williams, the Running Back Formerly Known as Dominick Davis) will also be in the mix. Green's at that age 30 danger zone, too, so you'll have to be cautious here.
TATUM BELL, T.J. DUCKETT TO LIONS
Weird situation here - it's a awfully crowded backfield, which also includes Kevin Jones, Shawn Bryson and Brian Calhoun. Each of these guys are lugging big question marks around, too, concerning everything from injuries (Jones, Bryson, Calhoun, Bell) to effort (Bell) to opportunity (Duckett). The way I see it, Jones is probably still the guy, assuming he can stay on the field, which is a big assumption. Bell could share time with him, the way he did the past few years in Denver, but there's also talk of the Lions using him as trade bait. And Duckett will probably sucker some owners into drafting him, but it's hard to say if he'll even get the carries to make it worth your while.
JEFF GARCIA TO BUCS
Could Garcia really start for the Bucs in 2007? I know he was fine for a stretch last year with the Eagles, but the jury's still out on whether he can be an effective starter for a full season. I'd like to think Chris Simms is still the guy the Bucs would LIKE to start for them - they did just give him a contract extension, after all - and bringing in Garcia is a ploy to push Simms in camp and serve as an insurance policy in case of emergency, like, say, another ruptured spleen. Or do you only have one spleen? I dunno, I'm a fantasy expert, not a doctor. Just don't make Garcia your starter next year, OK?
JAMAL LEWIS TO BROWNS
Lewis is pretty far removed from his 2,000-yard season, and this move to Cleveland isn't going to help his cause. The Brownies were last in the league in rushing last year and have had exactly one 1,000-yard rusher (Reuben Droughns, 2005) since 19-freakin'-85. Lewis is an RB2 at best now, and I'd look for a slight decline in his stats next year.
WILLIS McGAHEE TO RAVENS
The Ravens essentially replaced Lewis with McGahee, a more explosive runner who's two years younger. McGahee does come attached to some injury risk, but he definitely deserves a fantasy upgrade after moving to a solid, ball-control offense that features a much better offensive line. McGahee might even be a low-level fantasy No. 1 next year.
TRAVIS HENRY TO BRONCOS
Henry also improved his fantasy standing by moving to an offense that has a knack for creating star tailbacks. Assuming he keeps his nose clean, Henry should take a firm hold of the starting job now that Tatum Bell is out of the picture (see below). A 1,200- or 1,300-yard campaign is basically a lock, as long as Mike Shanahan doesn't pull his old revolving-door trick with the backfield again.
THOMAS JONES TO JETS
Jones' value should hold steady after his trade to New York. Figure he'll be used much the same way as he was the past two years in Chicago, with young Leon Washington filling the Cedric Benson role as a change-of-pace back. The real question concerns Benson, who was supposed to have already replaced Jones as the Bears' feature back, oh, about two years ago. Can he handle the new role? I'm a little skeptical right now.
REUBEN DROUGHNS TO GIANTS
Droughns was up-and-down as the primary tailback in Cleveland. Now he comes to the Giants, who will attempt to replace Tiki Barber with some combination of himself and Brandon Jacobs. The Giants think highly of the young, bruising Jacobs (new GM Jerry Reese referred to Droughns as a "complement" to Jacobs), but the two may enter some kind of competition for the starting role. Still, I expect a situation similar to the one in Indianapolis this past season, with Jacobs getting about two-thirds of the carries as he slowly adjusts to a feature role (a la Joseph Addai) while the veteran Droughns, like Dominic Rhodes, gets the rest of the work. Both Droughns and Jacobs will be worth a mid-round pick, and we'll see how the situation unfolds.
DOMINIC RHODES TO RAIDERS
Speaking of Rhodes, he goes from the world champs to the league's worst team in '06, and cashes in by doing so. It's unclear what the Silver & Black have in mind for the tandem of Rhodes and LaMont Jordan, but it'll likely be some kind of two-headed attack (or even three-headed if you count recently signed FB Justin Griffith). Judging by the Raiders' recent track record, Rhodes probably won't enjoy the same success he's had with the Colts, and Jordan should be downgraded a peg as well - as if he already wasn't in most of our minds already.
RANDY McMICHAEL TO RAMS
Love this move for St. Louis. Athletic, pass-catching tight ends are kind of like the iPods of the NFL, everybody's got to have one, and Joe Klopfenstein didn't give the Rams that dimension last season. McMichael certainly does. He'll catch a lot of balls, and I expect him to flourish under coach Scott Linehan, his former offensive coordinator in Miami. Mark McMichael down as a legit No. 1 fantasy TE.
AHMAN GREEN TO TEXANS
Green was surprisingly serviceable last season as the feature back on a bad Packers team. He'll probably be serviceable again as the feature back on a bad Texans team next year, even though some younger guys (including Dominick Williams, the Running Back Formerly Known as Dominick Davis) will also be in the mix. Green's at that age 30 danger zone, too, so you'll have to be cautious here.
TATUM BELL, T.J. DUCKETT TO LIONS
Weird situation here - it's a awfully crowded backfield, which also includes Kevin Jones, Shawn Bryson and Brian Calhoun. Each of these guys are lugging big question marks around, too, concerning everything from injuries (Jones, Bryson, Calhoun, Bell) to effort (Bell) to opportunity (Duckett). The way I see it, Jones is probably still the guy, assuming he can stay on the field, which is a big assumption. Bell could share time with him, the way he did the past few years in Denver, but there's also talk of the Lions using him as trade bait. And Duckett will probably sucker some owners into drafting him, but it's hard to say if he'll even get the carries to make it worth your while.
JEFF GARCIA TO BUCS
Could Garcia really start for the Bucs in 2007? I know he was fine for a stretch last year with the Eagles, but the jury's still out on whether he can be an effective starter for a full season. I'd like to think Chris Simms is still the guy the Bucs would LIKE to start for them - they did just give him a contract extension, after all - and bringing in Garcia is a ploy to push Simms in camp and serve as an insurance policy in case of emergency, like, say, another ruptured spleen. Or do you only have one spleen? I dunno, I'm a fantasy expert, not a doctor. Just don't make Garcia your starter next year, OK?
Monday, March 05, 2007
CLOSING TIME - NL
What better way to get fired up for the coming baseball season than some old school-inspired baseball gear? No, I don't work for Nike, but they do have a pretty dope collection of hats and shirts featuring old school logos. The perfect gift for the nostalgic baseball enthusiast in your life (I wear a Large) ......
Anyway, I digress. On to the closers:'
ARIZONA
Jose Valverde can drive you crazy. He's equally capable of dominating or breaking down. He lost the job last year and even got demoted to Triple A. But the good news is he pitched well after a late-season call-up and has been handed the job again to start the year. Valverde's a high-risk, high-reward type of guy, not a bad second reliever for your team, but certainly don't build your squad around him. Jorge Julio is a logical choice to replace Valverde if he falters, but sometimes he's even more inconsistent, so be warned.
ATLANTA
Bob Wickman seemed to be in the twilight of his career before the Indians dealt him to the Braves last summer. The 38-year-old truck-driver-in-another-life seemed to be rejuvenated by the move (in fact, he was pretty awesome - 18 saves, 1.04 ERA) and helped stabilize a volatile Braves bullpen. He'll try to do it again in '07, but he'll have young guns Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano firebreathing down his neck this time. You know Gonzalez - the lefty was 24-for-24 in save opportunites with the Pirates last year and could be the Braves' closer of the (near) future. And Soriano's got a live arm, too (although he's a Tommy John survivor). Wickman's worthy, Gonzalez should be stashed on your bench, and keep an eye on Soriano, too.
CHICAGO
The Cubs' fortunes have long been tied to the success of Kerry Wood, and it could be a similar story this year, although not quite the same plot. They're banking on Wood coming out of the bullpen now, perhaps as the team's closer, which means incumbent Ryan Dempster - who won't have Dusty Baker in his corner this year - is on the hot seat. As if the nine blown saves last year were helping his cause anyway. Bob Howry could also be in the mix, but Wood (assuming he steers clear of the hot tub and maybe even considers sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber on his days off) is an intriguing possibility.
CINCINNATI
David Weathers and Mike Stanton are the frontrunners right now, but do you really want to go down those roads again? The two vets might give you a couple saves, but the odds of either of them holding down the job all season are slim. Lefty Bill Bray - acquired from the Nationals in a controversial eight-player deal last year - is a possibility at some point and may have the most upside considering it's only his second big-league season. Todd Coffey was a great set-up guy but fizzled in the closer's role last year. Eddie Guardado is lingering, too, but he blew out his arm and may not be available until early summer, if at all.
COLORADO
Lefty Brian Fuentes has posted back-to-back 30-save seasons, the first Rockies pitcher to do so. You can probably expect the same this year along with an ERA somewhere around 3.00. Don't believe what your big brother told you about Rockies pitchers back in the day. Second-year man Ramon Ramirez would probably get the call if Fuentes went down but otherwise doesn't have a whole lot of value.
FLORIDA
The Marlins are essentially holding an American Idol-style open casting call (without the psychos) for the closer's job this spring after losing Joe Borowski in free agency. Lefty Taylor Tankersley did a fine job as a rookie last year in the bullpen and was seen as the front-runner but has recently been dealing with a sore arm. Other candidates include Kevin Gregg, Henry Owens and Ricky Nolasco. Yet another intriguing possibility is rookie Matt Lindstrom, a former Mormon missionary who has hit 102 mph on the radar gun and can reportedly "throw a marshmallow through a battleship." Now that I'd like to see.
HOUSTON
Brad Lidge, 2005: 70.2 IP, 103 Ks, 42 saves, 2.29 ERA
Brad Lidge, 2006: 75 IP, 104 Ks, 32 saves, 5.28 ERA
Hmm, one of those categories really doesn't jive with the other. Did Albert Pujols permanently wreck Lidge's psyche? I don't know. Something happened to the guy last year, though. The Astros even sat him in the time-out chair for a while. Can Lidge bounce back? Houston thinks so. They held onto him at the trade deadline after dangling him, even gave him a new one-year deal. At the very least Lidge will give you strikeouts and saves, and you can keep your fingers crossed he gets things figured out and lowers those ratios. Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls are there in case he can't.
LOS ANGELES
Last year, Takashi Saito single-handedly gave creedence to the fantasy adage about not paying too much for saves. The 36-year-old rookie didn't exactly have Daisuke Matsuzaka-level buzz when he came over from Japan and was basically an afterthought until stepping into the closer spot in mid-May. All he did from there was post 24 saves with a 2.07 ERA and lead all major league relievers with 107 strikeouts (compared to just 24 walks). Everyone's predicting a dropoff in his second go-around, and they may prove to be right once the league gets accustomed to him, but you've got to consider Saito a solid second-tier closer to start the year. You'd also be extremely wise to handcuff him to closer-in-waiting Jonathan Broxton, a 6-3, 290-pound, 22-year-old fireballer who trailed only Saito and Lidge in strikeouts among relievers (97) last year.
MILWAUKEE
Francisco Cordero fell out of favor as the closer in Texas last year but really stepped it up after coming over to the Brewers in the Carlos Lee deal. He replaced Derrick Turnbow, so good in 2005, who wigged out and lost his magic touch. Cordero seemed to really take to the league change (4.81 ERA in Texas, 1.69 in Milwaukee), and although his outings can be somewhat of an adventure, he did save 49 games in 2004 and 37 in 2005.
NEW YORK
Assuming he stays healthy, you can pretty much pencil Billy Wagner in for about 35 saves, an ERA around 2.00 and about 90 Ks right now. He's got some live arms behind him with closer potential - Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota, Ambiorix Burgos - but it's hard to imagine a scenario where manager Willie Randolph replaces Wags.
PHILADELPHIA
Tom Gordon was surprisingly solid in his return to the closer role in '06 after spending a couple years setting the table for Mariano Rivera. He did have to shut it down for a few weeks late in the season with a strained shoulder, but that'll happen when you're almost 40 years old and spend your time throwing a baseball as hard as you can. Flash and the Phils are taking extra steps to make sure he stays in top form this season, as there isn't a whole lot of depth behind him right now. Ryan Madson and Antonio Alfonseca aren't exactly enticing menu options.
PITTSBURGH
Now that Mike Gonzalez is in Atlanta, Salomon Torres is expected to get the nod for the Pirates. King Salomon did a pretty good job filling in when Gonzalez was hurt last year, racking up 12 saves, but he'd saved only five games before that in the previous nine seasons. Will he last a full year? Youngster Matt Capps is supposed to be the closer of the future, but when does the future start? And how many save opportunities will there be in the Steel City? Both of those guys are worth stashing on your roster, but temper your expectations for now.
ST. LOUIS
A hip ailment cost Jason Isringhausen a chance to pitch in the postseason for the World Series champs, but he's back now and reportedly feeling fine. So fine that last year's replacement, 25-year-old Adam Wainright, is being shifted into the rotation. Same goes for setup man Braden Looper, now a starter for the first time in his big-league career. Will Izzy be OK? He says he may need a hip replacement in a few years, which means he and the grandmothers of the world have something in common. We know he can do the job, but proceed with a lot of caution.
SAN DIEGO
The calendar continues to turn, but ageless Trevor Hoffman remains a top closing option. OK, so he's 39, so technically he's not "ageless." But he was arguably as good as ever last year, registering a 2.14 ERA and leading the league in saves with 46. If some unlucky accident should befall him, the Padres have two tremendous options - Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith - warming up in the pen.
SAN FRANCISCO
You pretty much know the deal with Armando Benitez. He's a so-so closer getting up there in age who battled knee problems last year. The trade rumors were swirling big-time this offseason, particularly those involving him going back to the Marlins. Red flags abound. Keep serious tabs on youngsters Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum waiting in the wings. Odds favor one of them taking over at some point, and with a much higher ceiling than Benitez's.
WASHINGTON
We know what Chad Cordero is capable of when everything goes right (47 saves, 1.82 ERA in 2005) ... we also saw what happens when he gets fewer chances and is the only reliable reliever on a bad team (29/3.19 last year). How many chances will the low-brimmed one get from what looks like an awful Nationals squad this year? Consider '05 his high-water mark, which means he'll be solid again but probably won't crack the 30-save barrier.
Anyway, I digress. On to the closers:'
ARIZONA
Jose Valverde can drive you crazy. He's equally capable of dominating or breaking down. He lost the job last year and even got demoted to Triple A. But the good news is he pitched well after a late-season call-up and has been handed the job again to start the year. Valverde's a high-risk, high-reward type of guy, not a bad second reliever for your team, but certainly don't build your squad around him. Jorge Julio is a logical choice to replace Valverde if he falters, but sometimes he's even more inconsistent, so be warned.
ATLANTA
Bob Wickman seemed to be in the twilight of his career before the Indians dealt him to the Braves last summer. The 38-year-old truck-driver-in-another-life seemed to be rejuvenated by the move (in fact, he was pretty awesome - 18 saves, 1.04 ERA) and helped stabilize a volatile Braves bullpen. He'll try to do it again in '07, but he'll have young guns Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano firebreathing down his neck this time. You know Gonzalez - the lefty was 24-for-24 in save opportunites with the Pirates last year and could be the Braves' closer of the (near) future. And Soriano's got a live arm, too (although he's a Tommy John survivor). Wickman's worthy, Gonzalez should be stashed on your bench, and keep an eye on Soriano, too.
CHICAGO
The Cubs' fortunes have long been tied to the success of Kerry Wood, and it could be a similar story this year, although not quite the same plot. They're banking on Wood coming out of the bullpen now, perhaps as the team's closer, which means incumbent Ryan Dempster - who won't have Dusty Baker in his corner this year - is on the hot seat. As if the nine blown saves last year were helping his cause anyway. Bob Howry could also be in the mix, but Wood (assuming he steers clear of the hot tub and maybe even considers sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber on his days off) is an intriguing possibility.
CINCINNATI
David Weathers and Mike Stanton are the frontrunners right now, but do you really want to go down those roads again? The two vets might give you a couple saves, but the odds of either of them holding down the job all season are slim. Lefty Bill Bray - acquired from the Nationals in a controversial eight-player deal last year - is a possibility at some point and may have the most upside considering it's only his second big-league season. Todd Coffey was a great set-up guy but fizzled in the closer's role last year. Eddie Guardado is lingering, too, but he blew out his arm and may not be available until early summer, if at all.
COLORADO
Lefty Brian Fuentes has posted back-to-back 30-save seasons, the first Rockies pitcher to do so. You can probably expect the same this year along with an ERA somewhere around 3.00. Don't believe what your big brother told you about Rockies pitchers back in the day. Second-year man Ramon Ramirez would probably get the call if Fuentes went down but otherwise doesn't have a whole lot of value.
FLORIDA
The Marlins are essentially holding an American Idol-style open casting call (without the psychos) for the closer's job this spring after losing Joe Borowski in free agency. Lefty Taylor Tankersley did a fine job as a rookie last year in the bullpen and was seen as the front-runner but has recently been dealing with a sore arm. Other candidates include Kevin Gregg, Henry Owens and Ricky Nolasco. Yet another intriguing possibility is rookie Matt Lindstrom, a former Mormon missionary who has hit 102 mph on the radar gun and can reportedly "throw a marshmallow through a battleship." Now that I'd like to see.
HOUSTON
Brad Lidge, 2005: 70.2 IP, 103 Ks, 42 saves, 2.29 ERA
Brad Lidge, 2006: 75 IP, 104 Ks, 32 saves, 5.28 ERA
Hmm, one of those categories really doesn't jive with the other. Did Albert Pujols permanently wreck Lidge's psyche? I don't know. Something happened to the guy last year, though. The Astros even sat him in the time-out chair for a while. Can Lidge bounce back? Houston thinks so. They held onto him at the trade deadline after dangling him, even gave him a new one-year deal. At the very least Lidge will give you strikeouts and saves, and you can keep your fingers crossed he gets things figured out and lowers those ratios. Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls are there in case he can't.
LOS ANGELES
Last year, Takashi Saito single-handedly gave creedence to the fantasy adage about not paying too much for saves. The 36-year-old rookie didn't exactly have Daisuke Matsuzaka-level buzz when he came over from Japan and was basically an afterthought until stepping into the closer spot in mid-May. All he did from there was post 24 saves with a 2.07 ERA and lead all major league relievers with 107 strikeouts (compared to just 24 walks). Everyone's predicting a dropoff in his second go-around, and they may prove to be right once the league gets accustomed to him, but you've got to consider Saito a solid second-tier closer to start the year. You'd also be extremely wise to handcuff him to closer-in-waiting Jonathan Broxton, a 6-3, 290-pound, 22-year-old fireballer who trailed only Saito and Lidge in strikeouts among relievers (97) last year.
MILWAUKEE
Francisco Cordero fell out of favor as the closer in Texas last year but really stepped it up after coming over to the Brewers in the Carlos Lee deal. He replaced Derrick Turnbow, so good in 2005, who wigged out and lost his magic touch. Cordero seemed to really take to the league change (4.81 ERA in Texas, 1.69 in Milwaukee), and although his outings can be somewhat of an adventure, he did save 49 games in 2004 and 37 in 2005.
NEW YORK
Assuming he stays healthy, you can pretty much pencil Billy Wagner in for about 35 saves, an ERA around 2.00 and about 90 Ks right now. He's got some live arms behind him with closer potential - Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota, Ambiorix Burgos - but it's hard to imagine a scenario where manager Willie Randolph replaces Wags.
PHILADELPHIA
Tom Gordon was surprisingly solid in his return to the closer role in '06 after spending a couple years setting the table for Mariano Rivera. He did have to shut it down for a few weeks late in the season with a strained shoulder, but that'll happen when you're almost 40 years old and spend your time throwing a baseball as hard as you can. Flash and the Phils are taking extra steps to make sure he stays in top form this season, as there isn't a whole lot of depth behind him right now. Ryan Madson and Antonio Alfonseca aren't exactly enticing menu options.
PITTSBURGH
Now that Mike Gonzalez is in Atlanta, Salomon Torres is expected to get the nod for the Pirates. King Salomon did a pretty good job filling in when Gonzalez was hurt last year, racking up 12 saves, but he'd saved only five games before that in the previous nine seasons. Will he last a full year? Youngster Matt Capps is supposed to be the closer of the future, but when does the future start? And how many save opportunities will there be in the Steel City? Both of those guys are worth stashing on your roster, but temper your expectations for now.
ST. LOUIS
A hip ailment cost Jason Isringhausen a chance to pitch in the postseason for the World Series champs, but he's back now and reportedly feeling fine. So fine that last year's replacement, 25-year-old Adam Wainright, is being shifted into the rotation. Same goes for setup man Braden Looper, now a starter for the first time in his big-league career. Will Izzy be OK? He says he may need a hip replacement in a few years, which means he and the grandmothers of the world have something in common. We know he can do the job, but proceed with a lot of caution.
SAN DIEGO
The calendar continues to turn, but ageless Trevor Hoffman remains a top closing option. OK, so he's 39, so technically he's not "ageless." But he was arguably as good as ever last year, registering a 2.14 ERA and leading the league in saves with 46. If some unlucky accident should befall him, the Padres have two tremendous options - Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith - warming up in the pen.
SAN FRANCISCO
You pretty much know the deal with Armando Benitez. He's a so-so closer getting up there in age who battled knee problems last year. The trade rumors were swirling big-time this offseason, particularly those involving him going back to the Marlins. Red flags abound. Keep serious tabs on youngsters Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum waiting in the wings. Odds favor one of them taking over at some point, and with a much higher ceiling than Benitez's.
WASHINGTON
We know what Chad Cordero is capable of when everything goes right (47 saves, 1.82 ERA in 2005) ... we also saw what happens when he gets fewer chances and is the only reliable reliever on a bad team (29/3.19 last year). How many chances will the low-brimmed one get from what looks like an awful Nationals squad this year? Consider '05 his high-water mark, which means he'll be solid again but probably won't crack the 30-save barrier.
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Spring report No. 2
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Believe it or not, but the Tampa Bay Devil Rays might be worth watching this year.
They don't get much national respect - not that they've earned it by the way they've played for basically the last decade - but there are a bunch of talented Rays who should be on your fantasy radar. A few were on display in Tampa Bay's spring opener Friday, a 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees at Progress Energy Park.
Carl Crawford is slowly moving up the rotisserie ladder, a speed merchant who's just beginning to realize his power potential at age 25 and figures to be at least a top-10 pick on draft day. Crawford anchors arguably the league's most talented outfield along with Rocco Baldelli in center and Delmon Young in right.
Baldelli, also just 25, is often overlooked for a number of reasons - he missed all of 2005 and part of '06 in a string of bad luck that started with a freak flip-flop incident (don't ask), he's overshadowed by Crawford and, of course, he's a Devil Ray. But Rocco Ballgame is just entering his prime, and he proved last year he's basically back to full strength (.302/16/57 with 10 SBs in 92 games). He'd offer a lot of value as a late-round pick assuming he can stay healthy for a full season.
Young's best known for chucking his bat at an ump in a minor league game next year, but if the prognosticators are right it'll just be a post script on a possible Hall of Fame career. Young - the younger brother of former Detroit Tiger Dmitri Young - is one of the finest all-around talents to enter the game in recent memory and a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. In other words, the kid's got skills. It'll be just his first full season, so don't overpay, but if Young keeps his head in check and can learn some plate discipline (one walk in 126 at-bats, egads!), he'll make an impact.
Speaking of aggressive youngsters, Elijah Dukes is another phenomenal Rays outfield prospect. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Dukes, who played linebacker at Tampa's Hillsborough High (known for producing such talented headcases as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Carl Everett) has had some problems with aggression and finding his inside voice in the past. The massive 22-year-old probably won't make too much of an impact this year - although he's got a good shot at making the team as a fourth outfielder in an effort to keep him under the watchful eye of the big-league club and get his head straight. Don't forget about him, especially in keeper leagues.
There's a lot of talent elsewhere on the roster too. We all know what ace Scott Kazmir is capable of (10 wins, 3.25 ERA, 125 Ks before the '06 All-Star break), and the shoulder inflammation that forced him to shut it down early last year hasn't been a problem this spring. B.J. Upton, not long ago considered one of baseball's top prospects, has fallen out of favor a bit because of defensive shortcomings but will start his first full season as a sort of uber-utility, Chone Figgins clone who will help at least in the steals department. 2B Jorge Cantu was held back by a broken foot last year, but if healthy he could replicate his stellar 2005 power numbers (28 HRs, 117 RBIs), which would hypothetically put him just behind Chase Utley at the position in terms of fantasy value. Japanese veteran 3B Akinori Iwamura, the team's only notable addition this season, provides a solid bat that could make him worth a late flyer. And waiting in the wings is 3B Evan (Don't Call Me Eva) Longoria, the Rays' top draft pick last year and the "best pure hitter" of that year's college prospects, according to Baseball America.
There's a lot of hypotheticals on this team, and of course they don't mean squat if they can't hobble together some semblance of a major league rotation or bullpen behind Kazmir. But the Rays have given themselves some flexibility and a pretty solid foundation to build on. And they can do the same for your team.
Some other observations:
- Andy Pettitte looked good in his first start of the spring and first game appearance since rejoining the Yankees: 20 pitches (15 strikes), two perfect innings. The Bombers are reportedly confident he's healthy (even though health concerns were supposedly the reason they let go of him in the first place), and I'm expecting the 34-year-old lefty to be rejuvenated by the move. He won't win an ERA title now that he's back in the AL, but with gas left in the tank and a dangerous offense backing him up, he's almost a lock to win 15 games.
- Spotted around the ballpark: Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, 1996 World Series hero Jim Leyritz, and Derek Jeter's parents, Charles and Dorothy.
They don't get much national respect - not that they've earned it by the way they've played for basically the last decade - but there are a bunch of talented Rays who should be on your fantasy radar. A few were on display in Tampa Bay's spring opener Friday, a 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees at Progress Energy Park.
Carl Crawford is slowly moving up the rotisserie ladder, a speed merchant who's just beginning to realize his power potential at age 25 and figures to be at least a top-10 pick on draft day. Crawford anchors arguably the league's most talented outfield along with Rocco Baldelli in center and Delmon Young in right.
Baldelli, also just 25, is often overlooked for a number of reasons - he missed all of 2005 and part of '06 in a string of bad luck that started with a freak flip-flop incident (don't ask), he's overshadowed by Crawford and, of course, he's a Devil Ray. But Rocco Ballgame is just entering his prime, and he proved last year he's basically back to full strength (.302/16/57 with 10 SBs in 92 games). He'd offer a lot of value as a late-round pick assuming he can stay healthy for a full season.
Young's best known for chucking his bat at an ump in a minor league game next year, but if the prognosticators are right it'll just be a post script on a possible Hall of Fame career. Young - the younger brother of former Detroit Tiger Dmitri Young - is one of the finest all-around talents to enter the game in recent memory and a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. In other words, the kid's got skills. It'll be just his first full season, so don't overpay, but if Young keeps his head in check and can learn some plate discipline (one walk in 126 at-bats, egads!), he'll make an impact.
Speaking of aggressive youngsters, Elijah Dukes is another phenomenal Rays outfield prospect. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Dukes, who played linebacker at Tampa's Hillsborough High (known for producing such talented headcases as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Carl Everett) has had some problems with aggression and finding his inside voice in the past. The massive 22-year-old probably won't make too much of an impact this year - although he's got a good shot at making the team as a fourth outfielder in an effort to keep him under the watchful eye of the big-league club and get his head straight. Don't forget about him, especially in keeper leagues.
There's a lot of talent elsewhere on the roster too. We all know what ace Scott Kazmir is capable of (10 wins, 3.25 ERA, 125 Ks before the '06 All-Star break), and the shoulder inflammation that forced him to shut it down early last year hasn't been a problem this spring. B.J. Upton, not long ago considered one of baseball's top prospects, has fallen out of favor a bit because of defensive shortcomings but will start his first full season as a sort of uber-utility, Chone Figgins clone who will help at least in the steals department. 2B Jorge Cantu was held back by a broken foot last year, but if healthy he could replicate his stellar 2005 power numbers (28 HRs, 117 RBIs), which would hypothetically put him just behind Chase Utley at the position in terms of fantasy value. Japanese veteran 3B Akinori Iwamura, the team's only notable addition this season, provides a solid bat that could make him worth a late flyer. And waiting in the wings is 3B Evan (Don't Call Me Eva) Longoria, the Rays' top draft pick last year and the "best pure hitter" of that year's college prospects, according to Baseball America.
There's a lot of hypotheticals on this team, and of course they don't mean squat if they can't hobble together some semblance of a major league rotation or bullpen behind Kazmir. But the Rays have given themselves some flexibility and a pretty solid foundation to build on. And they can do the same for your team.
Some other observations:
- Andy Pettitte looked good in his first start of the spring and first game appearance since rejoining the Yankees: 20 pitches (15 strikes), two perfect innings. The Bombers are reportedly confident he's healthy (even though health concerns were supposedly the reason they let go of him in the first place), and I'm expecting the 34-year-old lefty to be rejuvenated by the move. He won't win an ERA title now that he's back in the AL, but with gas left in the tank and a dangerous offense backing him up, he's almost a lock to win 15 games.
- Spotted around the ballpark: Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, 1996 World Series hero Jim Leyritz, and Derek Jeter's parents, Charles and Dorothy.
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