As much as Chad Johnson might argue otherwise, wide receivers just aren't that important. At least not when it comes to fantasy football.
Terrell Owens might want to slap me upside the head if he were reading this, but it wouldn't make me change my mind: Having an elite wideout isn't as crucial as having one, or even two, elite running backs.
No matter what those ball hogs try to tell you, running back is the marquee position in fantasy. In most standard scoring leagues, the majority of your points will come from runners, based on a simple fact: They touch the ball more often.
Top running backs are handed the ball about 20-25 times a game, or more, and asked to do something exciting with it. Elite receivers might get 15 balls thrown to them if they're lucky. (If Rex Grossman is the quarterback in question, replace "thrown" with "heaved" and "to them" with "in their general direction.") And every time a pass is attempted, only three things can happen, and two of them (interception, incompletion) are bad. I don't like those odds.
Obviously, I'm oversimplifying things, so don't draft running backs in the first five rounds based on what you just read. I don't have an issue with adding Marvin Harrison or Torry Holt or Steve Smith to your roster. I do, however, have an issue with drafters who take these receivers in the first or second round.
Sure, Johnson's a fine fantasy pick, and arguably the best at his position. But do you really want to reach for him in the third round, when it means you could be stuck with some clunker like Jamal Lewis or Ahman Green as your No. 2 back? That's just not gonna cut it, especially when you consider those weeks when Johnson gets held to under 60 receiving yards and no touchdowns - which happened a whopping seven times last year.
Another reason not to reach for a receiver: There are a bunch of guys at the top of the rankings - Johnson, Harrison, Holt, Smith, Owens, Reggie Wayne - who are more or less interchangeable. And behind them, there's an even larger pool of about 10-12 wideouts who could conceivably finish with about the same stats this year. That's certainly not true for running backs, where the drop-off in production is much steeper as you go down the list, making the importance of grabbing a couple studs even more crucial.
Let someone else reach for Owens. In the meantime, you can add some serious depth at running back and wait for one of those other top wideouts to trickle down to you in the third or fourth round. Plus, there's always going to be receiver talent on the waiver wire later in the year, even if you're just grabbing guys who have favorable matchups. That simply isn't so for running backs; even most of the talented backups will already be spoken for on draft day.
While we're on the subject of receivers, here are some other tidbits:
• If the top wideouts are so interchangeable, what made me rank Smith No. 1? Two things: He's his team's clear No. 1 at the position, and he's the most capable of making big plays and erupting for a huge season, a la 2005. The rest of the upper-tier guys are valued for their consistency.
• Folks are way too high on Indianapolis Colts rookie Anthony Gonzalez. The odds are already stacked against first-year receivers, let alone guys who will be their team's No. 3. Sure, Brandon Stokley had a magical year in that role in 2004 for Indy - then caught one touchdown the following season (he was hurt for most of '06).
• Here's a sleeper: Brandon Jones, Tennessee Titans. Vince Young has to throw to somebody, and Eric Moulds just doesn't scare anybody anymore. You won't find too many other NFL No. 1 receivers as late in the draft as Jones.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Welcome back, LJ
ESPN.com is reporting Larry Johnson has re-signed with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Johnson, who had been holding out all preseason, has inked a five-year extension and is back at practice. It's great news for the Chiefs, who really had no shot of being competitive this year without LJ, and it's great news for anybody who's already taken him in their fantasy draft.
How does this news affect those who haven't already drafted? Personally, I'm sticking to my running back rankings: I have Johnson slotted as the No. 3 RB, right behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson.
I've seen some other outlets drop Johnson out of the top five, and not just because of his contract situation. They're awfully worried about the extraordinary number of carries (416) last year and his advanced age (28), and to a lesser extent, the poor quality of the Chiefs' offensive skill players. But I think they're going a little overboard.
Yes, Johnson did a lot of running last year, but keep in mind he wasn't a full-time starter his first two seasons in the NFL, and he wasn't a full-time starter in college until his senior year. Take a look at his career workload:
PENN STATE
2000: 75 carries.
2001: 71 carries.
2002: 271 carries.
KANSAS CITY
2003: 20 carries.
2004: 120 carries.
2005: 336 carries.
2006: 416 carries.
As you can see, outside of last year, he doesn't have a whole lot of mileage on him. And it's not like he's over 30, either. He's still in his prime, or perhaps just entering his prime given his history. Sure, other backs have fallen off the map the year after they racked up 400 rushing attempts - but other backs aren't LJ. Herm Edwards is going to run him into the ground (think back to how he used Curtis Martin in New York), which means LJ has a chance to be one of the league's most productive players just on the sheer volume of carries he'll get. He alone is the focal point of that offense - and how many other NFL backs can you say that about?
I put Johnson behind Jackson in my rankings only because Jackson's a more explosive back and because of his tremendous involvement in the passing game. He's less of a risk than LJ - but I wouldn't have any problem taking Johnson at No. 3.
Johnson, who had been holding out all preseason, has inked a five-year extension and is back at practice. It's great news for the Chiefs, who really had no shot of being competitive this year without LJ, and it's great news for anybody who's already taken him in their fantasy draft.
How does this news affect those who haven't already drafted? Personally, I'm sticking to my running back rankings: I have Johnson slotted as the No. 3 RB, right behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson.
I've seen some other outlets drop Johnson out of the top five, and not just because of his contract situation. They're awfully worried about the extraordinary number of carries (416) last year and his advanced age (28), and to a lesser extent, the poor quality of the Chiefs' offensive skill players. But I think they're going a little overboard.
Yes, Johnson did a lot of running last year, but keep in mind he wasn't a full-time starter his first two seasons in the NFL, and he wasn't a full-time starter in college until his senior year. Take a look at his career workload:
PENN STATE
2000: 75 carries.
2001: 71 carries.
2002: 271 carries.
KANSAS CITY
2003: 20 carries.
2004: 120 carries.
2005: 336 carries.
2006: 416 carries.
As you can see, outside of last year, he doesn't have a whole lot of mileage on him. And it's not like he's over 30, either. He's still in his prime, or perhaps just entering his prime given his history. Sure, other backs have fallen off the map the year after they racked up 400 rushing attempts - but other backs aren't LJ. Herm Edwards is going to run him into the ground (think back to how he used Curtis Martin in New York), which means LJ has a chance to be one of the league's most productive players just on the sheer volume of carries he'll get. He alone is the focal point of that offense - and how many other NFL backs can you say that about?
I put Johnson behind Jackson in my rankings only because Jackson's a more explosive back and because of his tremendous involvement in the passing game. He's less of a risk than LJ - but I wouldn't have any problem taking Johnson at No. 3.
Finders keepers
Men are usually described as being afraid of long-term commitment. Flip through the channels, and you're bound to find some lame romantic comedy or sitcom about a guy who's scared to settle down or pop the question.
There's some truth to it - have you checked out what an engagement ring costs these days? - but for the most part, I think the whole thing is an unfair stereotype. Any woman who thinks the male brain is wired to be noncommittal apparently isn't familiar with keeper leagues.
For those who don't know, a keeper league is a special kind of fantasy league that allows players to protect a certain number of players on their roster and carry them over to the following season. The number of protected players usually ranges from about three to five, and I've heard of some keeper leagues lasting for five, even 10 years or more.
Now that's true commitment.If you're in a keeper baseball league, it's time to start planning for next season, especially if you're already lagging behind in this year's standings. Even if you're dead last, you've already said "I do" to competing again next season, so there's work to be done.Start by identifying potential keepers on your roster. A few obvious names should jump out: Alex Rodriguez, Johan Santana, Albert Pujols. We all know these three are perennial fantasy studs, so there's really no debate necessary. Keep them at all costs.
After that, your decisions get a little tougher, so here are a few more guidelines:
• Youth is at a premium. It probably goes without saying, but you want as little risk as possible when it comes to your keepers, and young players help limit that risk. Their numbers might be similar, but Robinson Cano (age 24) is a much safer pick than Jeff Kent (39). Duh.
• Position scarcity. The talent at some positions (shortstop, catcher) tends to be shallower than others (first base, outfield) each year, so perennial standouts (Derek Jeter) and up-and-comers (Russell Martin) at those thin spots should take precedence.
• Monitor new talent. We've already seen Detroit Tigers outfielder Cameron Maybin, New York Yankees reliever Joba Chamberlain, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton and Colorado Rockies third baseman Ian Stewart get called up in the past few weeks. They're the kind of top prospects you need to jump on as soon as they become eligible, even if they can't help a whole lot this year.
• Trading tips. Use deals to your advantage. If you're out of contention, target studs having a down year or nursing injuries (Alfonso Soriano, Chase Utley). And on the flip side, don't sacrifice your future just to make a mad dash toward finishing in third place this year and getting your league entry fee back.
• Beware of pitchers. Use special caution when it comes to keeping starters and closers, whose values tend to fluctuate more from year to year and who are bigger injury risks. Suppose you kept Chris Carpenter, B.J. Ryan and Huston Street from last year - talk about a commitment you'll live to regret! Unfortunately, there are no prenuptial agreements in fantasy sports.
There's some truth to it - have you checked out what an engagement ring costs these days? - but for the most part, I think the whole thing is an unfair stereotype. Any woman who thinks the male brain is wired to be noncommittal apparently isn't familiar with keeper leagues.
For those who don't know, a keeper league is a special kind of fantasy league that allows players to protect a certain number of players on their roster and carry them over to the following season. The number of protected players usually ranges from about three to five, and I've heard of some keeper leagues lasting for five, even 10 years or more.
Now that's true commitment.If you're in a keeper baseball league, it's time to start planning for next season, especially if you're already lagging behind in this year's standings. Even if you're dead last, you've already said "I do" to competing again next season, so there's work to be done.Start by identifying potential keepers on your roster. A few obvious names should jump out: Alex Rodriguez, Johan Santana, Albert Pujols. We all know these three are perennial fantasy studs, so there's really no debate necessary. Keep them at all costs.
After that, your decisions get a little tougher, so here are a few more guidelines:
• Youth is at a premium. It probably goes without saying, but you want as little risk as possible when it comes to your keepers, and young players help limit that risk. Their numbers might be similar, but Robinson Cano (age 24) is a much safer pick than Jeff Kent (39). Duh.
• Position scarcity. The talent at some positions (shortstop, catcher) tends to be shallower than others (first base, outfield) each year, so perennial standouts (Derek Jeter) and up-and-comers (Russell Martin) at those thin spots should take precedence.
• Monitor new talent. We've already seen Detroit Tigers outfielder Cameron Maybin, New York Yankees reliever Joba Chamberlain, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton and Colorado Rockies third baseman Ian Stewart get called up in the past few weeks. They're the kind of top prospects you need to jump on as soon as they become eligible, even if they can't help a whole lot this year.
• Trading tips. Use deals to your advantage. If you're out of contention, target studs having a down year or nursing injuries (Alfonso Soriano, Chase Utley). And on the flip side, don't sacrifice your future just to make a mad dash toward finishing in third place this year and getting your league entry fee back.
• Beware of pitchers. Use special caution when it comes to keeping starters and closers, whose values tend to fluctuate more from year to year and who are bigger injury risks. Suppose you kept Chris Carpenter, B.J. Ryan and Huston Street from last year - talk about a commitment you'll live to regret! Unfortunately, there are no prenuptial agreements in fantasy sports.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Tight ends, defenses, kickers
TIGHT ENDS
1. Antonio Gates, San Diego: 924 yards receiving, 9 TDs. Only TE out there who can produce like a WR each week.
2. Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City: 900 yards, 5 TDs. Still going strong, but loss of Trent Green hurts.
3. Todd Heap, Baltimore: 765 yards, 6 TDs. Steady production year after year.
4. Jeremy Shockey, N.Y. Giants: 623 yards, 7 TDs. Frustrating to watch, but Giants make it a point to target him.
5. Vernon Davis, San Francisco: 265 yards, 3 TDs. Superhuman capable of big things if fully healthy.
6. Chris Cooley, Washington: 734 yards, 6 TDs. Has shown a rapport with young Jason Campbell.
7. Kellen Winslow, Cleveland: 875 yards, 3 TDs. Gets a ton of looks and is working his way back to 100 percent.
8. Alge Crumpler, Atlanta: 780 yards, 8 TDs. Knee problems, Michael Vick saga knock him down a peg.
9. Jason Witten, Dallas: 754 yards, TD. Capable of much more, but do Cowboys agree?
10. Randy McMichael, St. Louis: 640 yards, 3 TDs. A safe pick and part of an improving offense.
11. L.J. Smith, Philadelphia: 611 yards, 5 TDs.
12. Benjamin Watson, New England: 643 yards, 3 TDs.
13. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh: 393 yards, 5 TDs.
14. Eric Johnson, New Orleans: 294 yards, 2 TDs.
15. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis: 367 yards, 4 TDs.
16. Owen Daniels, Houston: 350 yards, 5 TDs.
17. Bo Scaife, Tennessee: 370 yards, 2 TDs.
18. Daniel Graham, Denver: 235 yards, 2 TDs.
19. Chris Baker, N.Y. Jets: 300 yards, 4 TDs.
20. Greg Olsen, Chicago: Rookie.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Baltimore.
2. Chicago.
3. New England.
4. San Diego.
5. Denver.
6. Miami.
7. Jacksonville.
8, Minnesota.
9. Dallas.
10. Carolina.
11. Philadelphia.
12. Seattle.
13. Green Bay.
14. Oakland.
15. San Francisco.
16. Atlanta.
17. New York Giants.
18. Kansas City.
19. Arizona .
20. New Orleans.
KICKERS
1. Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis: 25 FGs, 113 points.
2. Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis: 32 FGs, 131 points.
3. Nate Kaeding, San Diego: 26 FGs, 136 points.
4. Robbie Gould, Chicago: 32 field goals, 143 points.
5. Shayne Graham, Cincinnati: 25 FGs, 115 points.
6. Josh Brown, Seattle: 25 FGs, 111 points.
7. Neil Rackers, Arizona: 28 FGs, 116 points.
8. Matt Stover, Baltimore: 28 FGs, 121 points.
9. Jason Elam, Denver: 27 FGs, 115 points.
10. David Akers, Philadelphia: 18 FGs, 102 points.
11. Josh Scobee, Jacksonville: 26 FGs, 119 points.
12. John Kasay, Carolina: 24 FGs, 100 points.
13. Jason Hanson, Detroit: 29 FGs, 117 points.
14. Stephen Gostkowski, New England: 20 FGs, 103 points.
15. Olindo Mare, New Orleans: 26 FGs, 100 points.
16. Joe Nedney, San Francisco: 29 FGs, 116 points.
17. Lawrence Tynes, N.Y. Giants: 24 FGs, 107 points.
18. Jay Feely, Miami: 23 FGs, 107 points.
19. Martin Gramatica, Dallas: 9 FGs, 44 points
20. Mike Nugent, N.Y. Jets: 24 FGs, 106 points.
1. Antonio Gates, San Diego: 924 yards receiving, 9 TDs. Only TE out there who can produce like a WR each week.
2. Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City: 900 yards, 5 TDs. Still going strong, but loss of Trent Green hurts.
3. Todd Heap, Baltimore: 765 yards, 6 TDs. Steady production year after year.
4. Jeremy Shockey, N.Y. Giants: 623 yards, 7 TDs. Frustrating to watch, but Giants make it a point to target him.
5. Vernon Davis, San Francisco: 265 yards, 3 TDs. Superhuman capable of big things if fully healthy.
6. Chris Cooley, Washington: 734 yards, 6 TDs. Has shown a rapport with young Jason Campbell.
7. Kellen Winslow, Cleveland: 875 yards, 3 TDs. Gets a ton of looks and is working his way back to 100 percent.
8. Alge Crumpler, Atlanta: 780 yards, 8 TDs. Knee problems, Michael Vick saga knock him down a peg.
9. Jason Witten, Dallas: 754 yards, TD. Capable of much more, but do Cowboys agree?
10. Randy McMichael, St. Louis: 640 yards, 3 TDs. A safe pick and part of an improving offense.
11. L.J. Smith, Philadelphia: 611 yards, 5 TDs.
12. Benjamin Watson, New England: 643 yards, 3 TDs.
13. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh: 393 yards, 5 TDs.
14. Eric Johnson, New Orleans: 294 yards, 2 TDs.
15. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis: 367 yards, 4 TDs.
16. Owen Daniels, Houston: 350 yards, 5 TDs.
17. Bo Scaife, Tennessee: 370 yards, 2 TDs.
18. Daniel Graham, Denver: 235 yards, 2 TDs.
19. Chris Baker, N.Y. Jets: 300 yards, 4 TDs.
20. Greg Olsen, Chicago: Rookie.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Baltimore.
2. Chicago.
3. New England.
4. San Diego.
5. Denver.
6. Miami.
7. Jacksonville.
8, Minnesota.
9. Dallas.
10. Carolina.
11. Philadelphia.
12. Seattle.
13. Green Bay.
14. Oakland.
15. San Francisco.
16. Atlanta.
17. New York Giants.
18. Kansas City.
19. Arizona .
20. New Orleans.
KICKERS
1. Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis: 25 FGs, 113 points.
2. Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis: 32 FGs, 131 points.
3. Nate Kaeding, San Diego: 26 FGs, 136 points.
4. Robbie Gould, Chicago: 32 field goals, 143 points.
5. Shayne Graham, Cincinnati: 25 FGs, 115 points.
6. Josh Brown, Seattle: 25 FGs, 111 points.
7. Neil Rackers, Arizona: 28 FGs, 116 points.
8. Matt Stover, Baltimore: 28 FGs, 121 points.
9. Jason Elam, Denver: 27 FGs, 115 points.
10. David Akers, Philadelphia: 18 FGs, 102 points.
11. Josh Scobee, Jacksonville: 26 FGs, 119 points.
12. John Kasay, Carolina: 24 FGs, 100 points.
13. Jason Hanson, Detroit: 29 FGs, 117 points.
14. Stephen Gostkowski, New England: 20 FGs, 103 points.
15. Olindo Mare, New Orleans: 26 FGs, 100 points.
16. Joe Nedney, San Francisco: 29 FGs, 116 points.
17. Lawrence Tynes, N.Y. Giants: 24 FGs, 107 points.
18. Jay Feely, Miami: 23 FGs, 107 points.
19. Martin Gramatica, Dallas: 9 FGs, 44 points
20. Mike Nugent, N.Y. Jets: 24 FGs, 106 points.
Friday, August 17, 2007
2007 WR Rankings
1. Steve Smith, Carolina: 1,166 yards and 8 TDs receiving, 61 yards and 1 TD rushing. New Panthers offensive coordinator will find new ways to get game’s most explosive wideout more involved. Sit back and enjoy the results.
2. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis: 1,366 yards, 12 TDs. Age is nothing but a number when it comes to wideouts, especially this guy. He and his QB are as close to a sure thing as you can get in fantasy.
3. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati: 1,369 yards, 7 TDs. Probably won’t reach double-digit TDs, but Ocho Cinco is Carson Palmer’s favorite target, so big plays and big yardage will make up for it.
4. Torry Holt, St. Louis: 1,188 yards, 10 TDs. Addition of other receiving targets (Drew Bennett, Randy McMichael) will only help consummate pro get open more often.
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis: 1,310 yards, 9 TDs. Could be a No. 1 on another team, but might not get the same looks he enjoys now as Harrison’s teammate. Thank goodness for that.
6. Terrell Owens, Dallas: 1,180 yards, 13 TDs. More drama than Lindsay Lohan – except with the talent to make it all worthwhile. No Bill Parcells or Drew Bledsoe to hold him back this year, either.
***
7. Roy Williams, Detroit: 1,310 yards, 7 TDs. Sooner rookie teammate Calvin Johnson matures, the sooner Williams will be free of double-teams. Shouldn’t take long.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona: 946 yards, 6 TDs. He’s always been physically gifted, but word is he’s refined his technique this offseason – a scary thought.
9. Lee Evans, Buffalo: 1,292 yards, 8 TDs. Will post a clunker here or there, but that’ll happen when you’re the team’s only receiving threat. He’ll catch plenty of deep balls.
***
10. Donald Driver, Green Bay: 1,295 yards, 8 TDs. Brett Favre might not be able to do much anymore, but there’s one area in which he excels: getting the ball to Driver. Wideout reached career highs in catches and yards last year.
11. Marques Colston, New Orleans: 1,038 yards, 8 TDs. Secret’s out regarding ’06 surprise standout, but his size, skills and offensive cohorts say there won’t be a sophomore slump.
12. Javon Walker, Denver: 1,084 yards and 8 TDs receiving, 123 yards and 1 TD rushing. Numbers should go up in second year as a Bronco with Jay Cutler getting acclimated with NFL defenses.
13. Randy Moss, New England: 553 yards, 3 TDs. Patriots will light a fire under him, which makes him extremely dangerous again. But they spread the ball around, so 100-yard games or TD chances might not be there every week.
14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati: 1,081 yards, 9 TDs. Doesn’t get as many headlines as teammate Johnson – try fitting “Houshmandzadeh” on a newspaper page – but he’s actually more consistent each week.
15. Anquan Boldin, Arizona: 1,203 yards, 4 TDs. Fitzgerald robs him of some valuable red-zone action, but he’ll still get enough looks to make him a fine fantasy No. 2.
16. Andre Johnson, Houston: 1,147 yards, 5 TDs. Yearly accomplishments are amazing given the offense he’s in. Imagine what he’d do on a real team.
17. Plaxico Burress, NY Giants: 988 yards, 10 TDs. Can be a deadly gamebreaker when he feels like it. Would be nice to see some more chemistry with Eli Manning.
***
18. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh: 975 yards, 6 TDs. Slowed a little last year by knee troubles, Ben Roethlisberger’s struggles but should bounce back a bit, within reason.
19. Darrell Jackson, San Francisco: 956 yards, 10 TDs. Acquired by 49ers to be sorely-needed No. 1 receiver for young QB Alex Smith. Had some lingering turf toe issues though.
20. Laveranues Coles, NY Jets: 1,098 yards, 6 TDs. Tough guy plays through pain, and a healthy Chad Pennington will look his way often.
21. Reggie Brown, Philadelphia: 816 yards and 8 TDs receiving, 24 yards and 1 TD rushing. Entering third year in the league, he’s the Eagles’ official go-to guy. Should catch a few of the deep balls that went to Donte’ Stallworth last year.
(***)
22. Calvin Johnson, Detroit: Rookie. Former Mike Williams/Charles Rogers owners are skeptical of rookie Lions receivers, but this guy has legit skills. Just don’t pencil him in as a fantasy stud yet – wait until 2008.
23. Chris Chambers, Miami: 677 yards and 4 TDs receiving, 95 yards rushing. Will be undervalued because he stunk last year – along with rest of Dolphins’ offense – but additions of Cam Cameron and QB Trent Green could help him regain ’05 form.
24. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland: 884 yards, 6 TDs. Perhaps Browns’ latest offensive system overhaul will finally take advantage of his talents. Steady QB play and staying healthy wouldn’t hurt, either.
***
25. Deion Branch, Seattle: 725 yards, 4 TDs, 30 yards rushing. Used to sharing receptions with teammates, but with Jackson out of the way he’ll take a starring role.
26. Mark Clayton, Baltimore: 939 yards, 5 TDs. Promising youngster bulked up in offseason, and his game still has room to grow – as long as aging Steve McNair doesn’t stunt that growth.
27. Vincent Jackson, San Diego: 453 yards, 6 TDs. Chargers expect big things from big target, who didn’t really turn it on until final four weeks last season. He’ll be Bolts’ No. 1 in an electrifying offense.
28. Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay: 1,057 yards, 7 TDs. Dependable old dude is still a burner, and having fellow vet Jeff Garcia under center should stabilize his stats from week to week.
***
29. Donte' Stallworth, New England: 725 yards, 5 TDs. Working his way back from an undisclosed injury, and it’s unclear how Pats will utilize him, so there’s risk involved. No doubt he’ll have a few huge weeks – but good luck guessing which ones.
30. Santana Moss, Washington: 790 yards and 6 TDs receiving, 82 yards rushing. Redskins expect more from little guy this year, and so should you. Monitor hip/groin problems that have slowed him in camp.
31. Jerricho Cotchery, NY Jets: 961 yards, 6 TDs.
32. Terry Glenn, Dallas: 1,047 yards, 6 TDs.
33. Bernard Berrian, Chicago: 775 yards, 6 TDs.
***
34. Greg Jennings, Green Bay: 632 yards, 3 TDs.
35. D.J. Hackett, Seattle: 610 yards, 4 TDs.
36. Jerry Porter, Oakland: 1 catch, 19 yards.
37. Mike Furrey, Detroit: 1,086 yards, 6 TDs.
38. Isaac Bruce, St. Louis: 1,098 yards, 3 TDs.
***
39. Devery Henderson, New Orleans: 745 yards and 5 TDs receiving, 14 yards and 1 TD rushing.
40. Brandon Jones, Tennessee: 384 yards, 2 TDs.
2. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis: 1,366 yards, 12 TDs. Age is nothing but a number when it comes to wideouts, especially this guy. He and his QB are as close to a sure thing as you can get in fantasy.
3. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati: 1,369 yards, 7 TDs. Probably won’t reach double-digit TDs, but Ocho Cinco is Carson Palmer’s favorite target, so big plays and big yardage will make up for it.
4. Torry Holt, St. Louis: 1,188 yards, 10 TDs. Addition of other receiving targets (Drew Bennett, Randy McMichael) will only help consummate pro get open more often.
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis: 1,310 yards, 9 TDs. Could be a No. 1 on another team, but might not get the same looks he enjoys now as Harrison’s teammate. Thank goodness for that.
6. Terrell Owens, Dallas: 1,180 yards, 13 TDs. More drama than Lindsay Lohan – except with the talent to make it all worthwhile. No Bill Parcells or Drew Bledsoe to hold him back this year, either.
***
7. Roy Williams, Detroit: 1,310 yards, 7 TDs. Sooner rookie teammate Calvin Johnson matures, the sooner Williams will be free of double-teams. Shouldn’t take long.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona: 946 yards, 6 TDs. He’s always been physically gifted, but word is he’s refined his technique this offseason – a scary thought.
9. Lee Evans, Buffalo: 1,292 yards, 8 TDs. Will post a clunker here or there, but that’ll happen when you’re the team’s only receiving threat. He’ll catch plenty of deep balls.
***
10. Donald Driver, Green Bay: 1,295 yards, 8 TDs. Brett Favre might not be able to do much anymore, but there’s one area in which he excels: getting the ball to Driver. Wideout reached career highs in catches and yards last year.
11. Marques Colston, New Orleans: 1,038 yards, 8 TDs. Secret’s out regarding ’06 surprise standout, but his size, skills and offensive cohorts say there won’t be a sophomore slump.
12. Javon Walker, Denver: 1,084 yards and 8 TDs receiving, 123 yards and 1 TD rushing. Numbers should go up in second year as a Bronco with Jay Cutler getting acclimated with NFL defenses.
13. Randy Moss, New England: 553 yards, 3 TDs. Patriots will light a fire under him, which makes him extremely dangerous again. But they spread the ball around, so 100-yard games or TD chances might not be there every week.
14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati: 1,081 yards, 9 TDs. Doesn’t get as many headlines as teammate Johnson – try fitting “Houshmandzadeh” on a newspaper page – but he’s actually more consistent each week.
15. Anquan Boldin, Arizona: 1,203 yards, 4 TDs. Fitzgerald robs him of some valuable red-zone action, but he’ll still get enough looks to make him a fine fantasy No. 2.
16. Andre Johnson, Houston: 1,147 yards, 5 TDs. Yearly accomplishments are amazing given the offense he’s in. Imagine what he’d do on a real team.
17. Plaxico Burress, NY Giants: 988 yards, 10 TDs. Can be a deadly gamebreaker when he feels like it. Would be nice to see some more chemistry with Eli Manning.
***
18. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh: 975 yards, 6 TDs. Slowed a little last year by knee troubles, Ben Roethlisberger’s struggles but should bounce back a bit, within reason.
19. Darrell Jackson, San Francisco: 956 yards, 10 TDs. Acquired by 49ers to be sorely-needed No. 1 receiver for young QB Alex Smith. Had some lingering turf toe issues though.
20. Laveranues Coles, NY Jets: 1,098 yards, 6 TDs. Tough guy plays through pain, and a healthy Chad Pennington will look his way often.
21. Reggie Brown, Philadelphia: 816 yards and 8 TDs receiving, 24 yards and 1 TD rushing. Entering third year in the league, he’s the Eagles’ official go-to guy. Should catch a few of the deep balls that went to Donte’ Stallworth last year.
(***)
22. Calvin Johnson, Detroit: Rookie. Former Mike Williams/Charles Rogers owners are skeptical of rookie Lions receivers, but this guy has legit skills. Just don’t pencil him in as a fantasy stud yet – wait until 2008.
23. Chris Chambers, Miami: 677 yards and 4 TDs receiving, 95 yards rushing. Will be undervalued because he stunk last year – along with rest of Dolphins’ offense – but additions of Cam Cameron and QB Trent Green could help him regain ’05 form.
24. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland: 884 yards, 6 TDs. Perhaps Browns’ latest offensive system overhaul will finally take advantage of his talents. Steady QB play and staying healthy wouldn’t hurt, either.
***
25. Deion Branch, Seattle: 725 yards, 4 TDs, 30 yards rushing. Used to sharing receptions with teammates, but with Jackson out of the way he’ll take a starring role.
26. Mark Clayton, Baltimore: 939 yards, 5 TDs. Promising youngster bulked up in offseason, and his game still has room to grow – as long as aging Steve McNair doesn’t stunt that growth.
27. Vincent Jackson, San Diego: 453 yards, 6 TDs. Chargers expect big things from big target, who didn’t really turn it on until final four weeks last season. He’ll be Bolts’ No. 1 in an electrifying offense.
28. Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay: 1,057 yards, 7 TDs. Dependable old dude is still a burner, and having fellow vet Jeff Garcia under center should stabilize his stats from week to week.
***
29. Donte' Stallworth, New England: 725 yards, 5 TDs. Working his way back from an undisclosed injury, and it’s unclear how Pats will utilize him, so there’s risk involved. No doubt he’ll have a few huge weeks – but good luck guessing which ones.
30. Santana Moss, Washington: 790 yards and 6 TDs receiving, 82 yards rushing. Redskins expect more from little guy this year, and so should you. Monitor hip/groin problems that have slowed him in camp.
31. Jerricho Cotchery, NY Jets: 961 yards, 6 TDs.
32. Terry Glenn, Dallas: 1,047 yards, 6 TDs.
33. Bernard Berrian, Chicago: 775 yards, 6 TDs.
***
34. Greg Jennings, Green Bay: 632 yards, 3 TDs.
35. D.J. Hackett, Seattle: 610 yards, 4 TDs.
36. Jerry Porter, Oakland: 1 catch, 19 yards.
37. Mike Furrey, Detroit: 1,086 yards, 6 TDs.
38. Isaac Bruce, St. Louis: 1,098 yards, 3 TDs.
***
39. Devery Henderson, New Orleans: 745 yards and 5 TDs receiving, 14 yards and 1 TD rushing.
40. Brandon Jones, Tennessee: 384 yards, 2 TDs.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
2007 RB Rankings
Here are my top 50 running backs, grouped into tiers. Each set of astersisks (***) represents a drop off in expected production:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego: 1,815 yards and 28 TDs rushing (5.2 yards per carry), 508 yards and 3 TDs receiving, 2 TD passes. We can’t honestly expect 28 TDs again this year. Right? With LT2, all things are possible.
***
2. Steven Jackson, St. Louis: 1,528 yards and 13 TDs rushing (4.4 yards per carry), 806 yards and 3 TDs receiving. His personal goal is 2,500 total yards, which would break Marshall Faulk’s NFL record. Not out of the question for this dreadlocked dynamo.
3. Larry Johnson, Kansas City: 1,789 yards and 17 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 410 yards and 2 TDs receiving. Concerns include heavy workload, lack of talent around him and most importantly his holdout, but you have to figure Chiefs will do everything to get him on the field. They’re nothing without him.
4. Frank Gore, San Francisco: 1,695 yards and 8 TDs rushing (5.4 yards per carry), 485 yards and 1 TD receiving. Popular pick is an emerging star in an up-and-coming offense. Count on him entering the end zone more often this year.
***
5. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis: 1,081 yards and 7 TDs rushing (4.8 yards per carry), 325 yards and 1 TD receiving. Steadily stole carries from Dominic Rhodes last year, and now has backfield all to himself.
6. Shaun Alexander, Seattle: 896 yards and 7 TDs rushing (3.6 yards per carry), 48 yards receiving. Foot injury crippled his ’06 campaign, but he says it’s all good now. Should be a TD machine again, but draft cautiously.
7. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh: 1,494 yards and 13 TDs rushing (4.4 yards per carry), 222 yards and 3 TDs receiving. Sore knee doesn’t seem serious, so his young legs should be ready to carry the load again. New coaching staff will get him the ball.
8. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia: 1,217 yards and 7 TDs rushing (5.1 yards per carry), 699 yards and 4 TDs receiving. Played 15 games last year, so maybe we can ditch the “oft-injured” tag. Receiving skills make him a No. 1 option.
***
9. Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati: 1,309 yards and 12 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 124 yards receiving. May have lost a step, but Bengals aren’t afraid to keep feeding him the ball. Rookie Kenny Irons (torn ACL) won’t be around to steal carries, either.
10. Laurence Maroney, New England: 745 yards and 6 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 194 yards and 1 TD receiving. Corey Dillon is gone, and hopefully so are Maroney’s nagging injuries. He’ll be crossing the goal line often.
11. Travis Henry, Denver: 1,211 yards and 7 TDs rushing (4.5 yards per carry), 78 yards receiving. Ran for 1,200 yards with the Titans last year – just imagine what he can accomplish in Broncos’ star-making system.
***
12. Ronnie Brown, Miami: 1,008 yards and 5 TDs rushing (4.2 yards per carry), 276 yards receiving. Was a letdown last year, but played in a clueless offense. New coach Cam Cameron – Tomlinson’s old coordinator – will find ways to give him touches.
13. Reggie Bush, New Orleans: 565 yards and 6 TDs rushing (3.6 yards per carry), 742 yards and 2 TDs receiving. He was electrifying last year – about half the time. Hopefully, with a year of experience comes some more consistency.
***
14. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville: 941 yards and 13 TDs rushing (5.7 yards per carry), 436 yards and 2 TDs receiving. The secret’s out about the “human bowling ball.” Loads of potential, but he’s still not even a starter for the Jaguars, so have a trusted No. 1 in place if you take him.
15. Willis McGahee, Baltimore: 990 yards and 6 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 156 yards receiving. Should be rejuvenated as a Raven, or at least find the end zone a few more times.
16. Thomas Jones, N.Y. Jets: 1,210 yards and 6 TDs rushing, 154 yards receiving. Jets see visions of Curtis Martin in their new workhorse. Monitor his recent leg injury, though.
***
17. Edgerrin James, Arizona: 1,159 yards and 6 TDs rushing (3.4 yards per carry), 217 yards receiving. Edge ditched his gold grill in offseason and gained a new coaching staff that wants to establish running game. He’s still got a few carries left.
18. Cedric Benson, Chicago: 647 yards and 6 TDs rushing (4.1 yards per carry), 54 yards receiving. Finally gets his chance to be the starter, but jury’s out as to whether he’s ready, either physically or mentally. Seems like a good fit for Bears’ smashmouth style of offense, though.
19. Clinton Portis, Washington: 523 yards and 7 TDs rushing (4.1 yards per carry), 170 yards receiving. Dogged by injuries last year while backup Ladell Betts shined. If he’s healthy, he’s a star – and if he’s not, downgrade him.
20. Brandon Jacobs, N.Y. Giants: 423 yards and 9 TDs rushing (4.4 yards per carry), 149 yards receiving. Big boy gets first feature role with Tiki Barber now on TV. Reuben Droughns will get some action too, but Jacobs has a nose for the end zone.
21. Deuce McAllister, New Orleans: 1,057 yards and 10 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 198 yards receiving. More than a year removed from his knee injury and still only 28. Will get goal-line carries and deliver, but Bush might take a bigger role.
***
22. Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay: 798 yards and 1 TD rushing (3.5 yards per carry), 196 yards receiving. Huge ’06 drop from his rookie season, but offensive line and QB play should be a little better. No Mike Alstott to steal TD plunges either.
23. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo: Rookie. Fresher legs and more advanced receiving skills should make him a better fit for Bills’ offense, but he’s got to prove it on the field. Nice upside though.
24. Marion Barber, Dallas: 654 yards and 14 TDs rushing (4.8 yards per carry), 196 yards and 2 TDs receiving. A little uncertainty about how Wade Phillips’ staff will use him and Julius Jones, but he’s proven himself as a short-yardage specialist. Still, hard to expect 14 TDs again.
***
25. Ahman Green, Houston: 1,059 yards and 5 TDs rushing (4.0 yards per carry), 373 yards and 1 TD receiving. Doesn’t have as much mileage on him as you’d expect for an old dude, so last year’s numbers are approachable.
26. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta: 633 yards and 2 TDs rushing (6.4 yards per carry), 102 yards receiving. The buzz is youngster will get more touches than vet Warrick Dunn, which would boost his value big-time.
27. Ladell Betts, Washington: 1,154 yards and 4 TDs rushing (4.7 yards per carry), 445 yards and 1 TD receiving. Re-signed with Redskins in the offseason, so you know they plan to use him in a platoon at the very least. A clear handcuff to Portis with big upside.
28. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota: Rookie. Oklahoma product is the next big thing but has to split time with Chester Taylor for now. His day will come though – perhaps as soon as, say, Week 8 or so.
29. Chester Taylor, Minnesota: 1,216 yards and 6 TDs rushing (4.0 yards per carry) and 288 yards receiving. Dependable as a first-time starter in ’06 but took a beating. Probably begins year as the starter but is really just a caretaker for Peterson in long run.
30. Julius Jones, Dallas: 1,084 yards and 4 TDs rushing (4.1 yards per carry), 142 yards receiving. Has a lot to prove if he wants a new contract, especially with Barber hogging the short-yardage work.
31. Fred Taylor, Jacksonville: 1,146 yards and 5 TDs rushing (5.0 yards per carry), 242 yards and 1 TD receiving.
32. Jamal Lewis, Cleveland: 1,132 yards and 9 TDs rushing (3.6 yards per carry), 115 yards receiving.
***
33. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina: 501 yards and 1 TD rushing (4.1 yards per carry), 313 yards and 1 TD receiving.
34. Tatum Bell, Detroit: 1,025 yards and 2 TDs rushing (4.4 yards per carry), 115 yards receiving.
***
35. DeShaun Foster, Carolina: 897 yards and 3 TDs rushing (4.0 yards per carry), 159 yards receiving.
***
36. Kevin Jones, Detroit: 689 yards and 6 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 520 yards and 2 TDs receiving.
37. Warrick Dunn, Atlanta: 1,140 yards and 4 TDs rushing (4.0 yards per carry), 170 yards and 1 TD receiving.
38. Brandon Jackson, Green Bay: Rookie.
***
39. LaMont Jordan, Oakland: 434 yards and 2 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 74 yards receiving.
40. Vernand Morency, Green Bay: 434 yards and 2 TDs rushing (4.5 yards per carry), 118 yards receiving.
41. Chris Henry, Tennessee: Rookie.
42. Michael Turner, San Diego: 502 yards and 2 TDs rushing (6.3 yards per carry), 47 yards receiving.
43. Reuben Droughns, N.Y. Giants: 758 yards and 4 TDs rushing (3.4 yards per carry), 169 yards receiving.
***
44. Mike Bell, Denver: 677 yards and 8 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 158 yards receiving.
***
45. Dominic Rhodes, Oakland: 641 yards and 5 TDs rushing (3.4 yards per carry), 251 yards receiving.
46. Adrian Peterson, Chicago: 41 yards and 2 TDs rushing (4.7 yards per carry), 88 yards receiving
***
47. Maurice Morris, Seattle: 604 yards and 0 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 46 yards receiving.
48. Leon Washington, N.Y. Jets: 650 yards and 4 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 270 yards receiving.
49. Lendale White, Tennessee: 244 yards, 0 TDs (4.0 yards per carry).
***
50. Anthony Thomas, Buffalo: 378 yards and 2 TDs rushing (3.5 yards per carry).
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego: 1,815 yards and 28 TDs rushing (5.2 yards per carry), 508 yards and 3 TDs receiving, 2 TD passes. We can’t honestly expect 28 TDs again this year. Right? With LT2, all things are possible.
***
2. Steven Jackson, St. Louis: 1,528 yards and 13 TDs rushing (4.4 yards per carry), 806 yards and 3 TDs receiving. His personal goal is 2,500 total yards, which would break Marshall Faulk’s NFL record. Not out of the question for this dreadlocked dynamo.
3. Larry Johnson, Kansas City: 1,789 yards and 17 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 410 yards and 2 TDs receiving. Concerns include heavy workload, lack of talent around him and most importantly his holdout, but you have to figure Chiefs will do everything to get him on the field. They’re nothing without him.
4. Frank Gore, San Francisco: 1,695 yards and 8 TDs rushing (5.4 yards per carry), 485 yards and 1 TD receiving. Popular pick is an emerging star in an up-and-coming offense. Count on him entering the end zone more often this year.
***
5. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis: 1,081 yards and 7 TDs rushing (4.8 yards per carry), 325 yards and 1 TD receiving. Steadily stole carries from Dominic Rhodes last year, and now has backfield all to himself.
6. Shaun Alexander, Seattle: 896 yards and 7 TDs rushing (3.6 yards per carry), 48 yards receiving. Foot injury crippled his ’06 campaign, but he says it’s all good now. Should be a TD machine again, but draft cautiously.
7. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh: 1,494 yards and 13 TDs rushing (4.4 yards per carry), 222 yards and 3 TDs receiving. Sore knee doesn’t seem serious, so his young legs should be ready to carry the load again. New coaching staff will get him the ball.
8. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia: 1,217 yards and 7 TDs rushing (5.1 yards per carry), 699 yards and 4 TDs receiving. Played 15 games last year, so maybe we can ditch the “oft-injured” tag. Receiving skills make him a No. 1 option.
***
9. Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati: 1,309 yards and 12 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 124 yards receiving. May have lost a step, but Bengals aren’t afraid to keep feeding him the ball. Rookie Kenny Irons (torn ACL) won’t be around to steal carries, either.
10. Laurence Maroney, New England: 745 yards and 6 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 194 yards and 1 TD receiving. Corey Dillon is gone, and hopefully so are Maroney’s nagging injuries. He’ll be crossing the goal line often.
11. Travis Henry, Denver: 1,211 yards and 7 TDs rushing (4.5 yards per carry), 78 yards receiving. Ran for 1,200 yards with the Titans last year – just imagine what he can accomplish in Broncos’ star-making system.
***
12. Ronnie Brown, Miami: 1,008 yards and 5 TDs rushing (4.2 yards per carry), 276 yards receiving. Was a letdown last year, but played in a clueless offense. New coach Cam Cameron – Tomlinson’s old coordinator – will find ways to give him touches.
13. Reggie Bush, New Orleans: 565 yards and 6 TDs rushing (3.6 yards per carry), 742 yards and 2 TDs receiving. He was electrifying last year – about half the time. Hopefully, with a year of experience comes some more consistency.
***
14. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville: 941 yards and 13 TDs rushing (5.7 yards per carry), 436 yards and 2 TDs receiving. The secret’s out about the “human bowling ball.” Loads of potential, but he’s still not even a starter for the Jaguars, so have a trusted No. 1 in place if you take him.
15. Willis McGahee, Baltimore: 990 yards and 6 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 156 yards receiving. Should be rejuvenated as a Raven, or at least find the end zone a few more times.
16. Thomas Jones, N.Y. Jets: 1,210 yards and 6 TDs rushing, 154 yards receiving. Jets see visions of Curtis Martin in their new workhorse. Monitor his recent leg injury, though.
***
17. Edgerrin James, Arizona: 1,159 yards and 6 TDs rushing (3.4 yards per carry), 217 yards receiving. Edge ditched his gold grill in offseason and gained a new coaching staff that wants to establish running game. He’s still got a few carries left.
18. Cedric Benson, Chicago: 647 yards and 6 TDs rushing (4.1 yards per carry), 54 yards receiving. Finally gets his chance to be the starter, but jury’s out as to whether he’s ready, either physically or mentally. Seems like a good fit for Bears’ smashmouth style of offense, though.
19. Clinton Portis, Washington: 523 yards and 7 TDs rushing (4.1 yards per carry), 170 yards receiving. Dogged by injuries last year while backup Ladell Betts shined. If he’s healthy, he’s a star – and if he’s not, downgrade him.
20. Brandon Jacobs, N.Y. Giants: 423 yards and 9 TDs rushing (4.4 yards per carry), 149 yards receiving. Big boy gets first feature role with Tiki Barber now on TV. Reuben Droughns will get some action too, but Jacobs has a nose for the end zone.
21. Deuce McAllister, New Orleans: 1,057 yards and 10 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 198 yards receiving. More than a year removed from his knee injury and still only 28. Will get goal-line carries and deliver, but Bush might take a bigger role.
***
22. Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay: 798 yards and 1 TD rushing (3.5 yards per carry), 196 yards receiving. Huge ’06 drop from his rookie season, but offensive line and QB play should be a little better. No Mike Alstott to steal TD plunges either.
23. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo: Rookie. Fresher legs and more advanced receiving skills should make him a better fit for Bills’ offense, but he’s got to prove it on the field. Nice upside though.
24. Marion Barber, Dallas: 654 yards and 14 TDs rushing (4.8 yards per carry), 196 yards and 2 TDs receiving. A little uncertainty about how Wade Phillips’ staff will use him and Julius Jones, but he’s proven himself as a short-yardage specialist. Still, hard to expect 14 TDs again.
***
25. Ahman Green, Houston: 1,059 yards and 5 TDs rushing (4.0 yards per carry), 373 yards and 1 TD receiving. Doesn’t have as much mileage on him as you’d expect for an old dude, so last year’s numbers are approachable.
26. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta: 633 yards and 2 TDs rushing (6.4 yards per carry), 102 yards receiving. The buzz is youngster will get more touches than vet Warrick Dunn, which would boost his value big-time.
27. Ladell Betts, Washington: 1,154 yards and 4 TDs rushing (4.7 yards per carry), 445 yards and 1 TD receiving. Re-signed with Redskins in the offseason, so you know they plan to use him in a platoon at the very least. A clear handcuff to Portis with big upside.
28. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota: Rookie. Oklahoma product is the next big thing but has to split time with Chester Taylor for now. His day will come though – perhaps as soon as, say, Week 8 or so.
29. Chester Taylor, Minnesota: 1,216 yards and 6 TDs rushing (4.0 yards per carry) and 288 yards receiving. Dependable as a first-time starter in ’06 but took a beating. Probably begins year as the starter but is really just a caretaker for Peterson in long run.
30. Julius Jones, Dallas: 1,084 yards and 4 TDs rushing (4.1 yards per carry), 142 yards receiving. Has a lot to prove if he wants a new contract, especially with Barber hogging the short-yardage work.
31. Fred Taylor, Jacksonville: 1,146 yards and 5 TDs rushing (5.0 yards per carry), 242 yards and 1 TD receiving.
32. Jamal Lewis, Cleveland: 1,132 yards and 9 TDs rushing (3.6 yards per carry), 115 yards receiving.
***
33. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina: 501 yards and 1 TD rushing (4.1 yards per carry), 313 yards and 1 TD receiving.
34. Tatum Bell, Detroit: 1,025 yards and 2 TDs rushing (4.4 yards per carry), 115 yards receiving.
***
35. DeShaun Foster, Carolina: 897 yards and 3 TDs rushing (4.0 yards per carry), 159 yards receiving.
***
36. Kevin Jones, Detroit: 689 yards and 6 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 520 yards and 2 TDs receiving.
37. Warrick Dunn, Atlanta: 1,140 yards and 4 TDs rushing (4.0 yards per carry), 170 yards and 1 TD receiving.
38. Brandon Jackson, Green Bay: Rookie.
***
39. LaMont Jordan, Oakland: 434 yards and 2 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 74 yards receiving.
40. Vernand Morency, Green Bay: 434 yards and 2 TDs rushing (4.5 yards per carry), 118 yards receiving.
41. Chris Henry, Tennessee: Rookie.
42. Michael Turner, San Diego: 502 yards and 2 TDs rushing (6.3 yards per carry), 47 yards receiving.
43. Reuben Droughns, N.Y. Giants: 758 yards and 4 TDs rushing (3.4 yards per carry), 169 yards receiving.
***
44. Mike Bell, Denver: 677 yards and 8 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 158 yards receiving.
***
45. Dominic Rhodes, Oakland: 641 yards and 5 TDs rushing (3.4 yards per carry), 251 yards receiving.
46. Adrian Peterson, Chicago: 41 yards and 2 TDs rushing (4.7 yards per carry), 88 yards receiving
***
47. Maurice Morris, Seattle: 604 yards and 0 TDs rushing (3.8 yards per carry), 46 yards receiving.
48. Leon Washington, N.Y. Jets: 650 yards and 4 TDs rushing (4.3 yards per carry), 270 yards receiving.
49. Lendale White, Tennessee: 244 yards, 0 TDs (4.0 yards per carry).
***
50. Anthony Thomas, Buffalo: 378 yards and 2 TDs rushing (3.5 yards per carry).
Monday, August 13, 2007
Add Ankiel
Rick Ankiel is the talk of baseball right now.
Yes, that Rick Ankiel.
The former failed Cardinals starter is back in the majors, this time as an outfielder, and he's tearing it up: .375, three homers, six RBIs in four games. I even hear Disney is looking into a film version starring Dennis Quaid. Or Randy Quaid for a TV version.
OK, maybe all of that isn't true. But as hard as it is to believe, Ankiel is a big-time fantasy option, at least in the short term. We're in the stretch run here, and any cheap power you can acquire is worth going after. Ankiel's outburst is pretty shocking based on his past history, but it isn't totally a surprise: he did jack 32 homers this year in the Pacific Coast League.
Ankiel's also been batting in front of Albert Pujols, which mean's he's going to see plenty of sweet pitches. The only concern right now is how much playing time Ankiel gets, but you figure Tony La Russa's got to keep going with the hot hand for the time being, so you should do the same. Grab Ankiel if he's out there. Just duck when he tries to hit the cutoff man.
Yes, that Rick Ankiel.
The former failed Cardinals starter is back in the majors, this time as an outfielder, and he's tearing it up: .375, three homers, six RBIs in four games. I even hear Disney is looking into a film version starring Dennis Quaid. Or Randy Quaid for a TV version.
OK, maybe all of that isn't true. But as hard as it is to believe, Ankiel is a big-time fantasy option, at least in the short term. We're in the stretch run here, and any cheap power you can acquire is worth going after. Ankiel's outburst is pretty shocking based on his past history, but it isn't totally a surprise: he did jack 32 homers this year in the Pacific Coast League.
Ankiel's also been batting in front of Albert Pujols, which mean's he's going to see plenty of sweet pitches. The only concern right now is how much playing time Ankiel gets, but you figure Tony La Russa's got to keep going with the hot hand for the time being, so you should do the same. Grab Ankiel if he's out there. Just duck when he tries to hit the cutoff man.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
2007 QB Rankings
Here are my top 25 quarterbacks, subject to change of course. They're listed with 2006 stats and grouped into tiers, with each set of asterisks (***) representing a drop-off in expected production:
1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis: 4,397 yards, 31 TDs, 9 INTs, 4 TDs rushing. A downgraded Colts defense just means more opportunities to air it out.
2. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati: 4,035 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs. More than a year removed from his knee injury, he has the offensive weapons to rival Manning for elite status.
***
3. Tom Brady, New England: 3,529 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs. With perhaps his most talented supporting cast in tow, he should be poised for a career year.
4. Drew Brees, New Orleans: 4,418 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs. No reason he can’t duplicate last year’s stud-worthy numbers, but you’ll have to draft him a lot higher this time around.
5. Marc Bulger, St. Louis: 4,301 yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs. If he stays healthy again (he played a career-high 16 games last year), he has the skills to hang with any QB on this list.
***
6. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia: 2,647 yards, 18 TDs, 6 INTs, 3 TDs rushing. It’s easy to forget he was putting up MVP numbers through Week 7 last year. It’s no guarantee he won’t get hurt (again), but he’s worth the risk after the top five guys are taken.
7. Vince Young, Tennessee: 2,199 yards, 12 TDs, 13 INTs, 552 yards rushing, 7 TDs rushing. Much like Michael Vick of days past, rushing ability boosts his value. And like Vick, he’s got “Bad Newz” of his own: he’s on the cover of Madden 2008.
***
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle: 2,442 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs. Even with some shoulder concerns and a disappointing ’06, the savvy veteran is a safe bet to perform closer to his career averages.
9. Jon Kitna, Detroit: 4,208 yards, 21 TDs, 22 INTs, 2 TDs rushing. This trendy sleeper, on the other hand, is a pick for the risk-takers. The stars are aligned for him to duplicate or surpass last year’s production – but it’s still Jon Kitna, so have a backup plan.
10. Tony Romo, Dallas: 2,903 yards, 19 TDs, 13 INTs. Last year he looked like two parts Troy Aikman, one part Quincy Carter. Odds are the real Tony Romo is somewhere in between, which still makes him a low-end No. 1 QB.
***
11. Philip Rivers, San Diego: 3,388 yards, 22 TDs, 9 INTs.
12. Matt Leinart, Arizona: 2,541 yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTs, 2 TDs rushing.
13. Eli Manning, NY Giants: 3,244 yards, 24 TDs, 18 INTs.
14. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh: 3,513 yards, 18 TDs, 23 INTs, 2 TDs rushing.
***
15. Jay Cutler, Denver: 1,001 yards, 9 TDs, 5 INTs.
16. Jake Delhomme, Carolina: 2,805 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs.
17. Brett Favre, Green Bay: 3,885 yards, 18 TD passes, 18 INTs, 1 TD rushing.
***
18. J.P. Losman, Buffalo: 3,051 yards, 19 TDs, 14 INTS, 1 TD run.
19. Alex Smith, San Francisco: 2,890 yards, 16 TDs, 16 INTS, 2 TDs rushing.
20. Chad Pennington, NY Jets: 3,352 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs.
21. Rex Grossman, Chicago: 3,193 yards, 23 TDs, 20 INTs.
22. Jason Campbell, Washington: 1,297 yards, 10 TDS, 6 INTs, 112 yards rushing.
***
23. Matt Schaub, Houston: 208 yards, TD, 2 INTs.
24. Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay: 1,309 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs
25. Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville: 1,159 yards, 7 TDs, 5 INTS, 2 TDs rushing.
1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis: 4,397 yards, 31 TDs, 9 INTs, 4 TDs rushing. A downgraded Colts defense just means more opportunities to air it out.
2. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati: 4,035 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs. More than a year removed from his knee injury, he has the offensive weapons to rival Manning for elite status.
***
3. Tom Brady, New England: 3,529 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs. With perhaps his most talented supporting cast in tow, he should be poised for a career year.
4. Drew Brees, New Orleans: 4,418 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs. No reason he can’t duplicate last year’s stud-worthy numbers, but you’ll have to draft him a lot higher this time around.
5. Marc Bulger, St. Louis: 4,301 yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs. If he stays healthy again (he played a career-high 16 games last year), he has the skills to hang with any QB on this list.
***
6. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia: 2,647 yards, 18 TDs, 6 INTs, 3 TDs rushing. It’s easy to forget he was putting up MVP numbers through Week 7 last year. It’s no guarantee he won’t get hurt (again), but he’s worth the risk after the top five guys are taken.
7. Vince Young, Tennessee: 2,199 yards, 12 TDs, 13 INTs, 552 yards rushing, 7 TDs rushing. Much like Michael Vick of days past, rushing ability boosts his value. And like Vick, he’s got “Bad Newz” of his own: he’s on the cover of Madden 2008.
***
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle: 2,442 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs. Even with some shoulder concerns and a disappointing ’06, the savvy veteran is a safe bet to perform closer to his career averages.
9. Jon Kitna, Detroit: 4,208 yards, 21 TDs, 22 INTs, 2 TDs rushing. This trendy sleeper, on the other hand, is a pick for the risk-takers. The stars are aligned for him to duplicate or surpass last year’s production – but it’s still Jon Kitna, so have a backup plan.
10. Tony Romo, Dallas: 2,903 yards, 19 TDs, 13 INTs. Last year he looked like two parts Troy Aikman, one part Quincy Carter. Odds are the real Tony Romo is somewhere in between, which still makes him a low-end No. 1 QB.
***
11. Philip Rivers, San Diego: 3,388 yards, 22 TDs, 9 INTs.
12. Matt Leinart, Arizona: 2,541 yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTs, 2 TDs rushing.
13. Eli Manning, NY Giants: 3,244 yards, 24 TDs, 18 INTs.
14. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh: 3,513 yards, 18 TDs, 23 INTs, 2 TDs rushing.
***
15. Jay Cutler, Denver: 1,001 yards, 9 TDs, 5 INTs.
16. Jake Delhomme, Carolina: 2,805 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs.
17. Brett Favre, Green Bay: 3,885 yards, 18 TD passes, 18 INTs, 1 TD rushing.
***
18. J.P. Losman, Buffalo: 3,051 yards, 19 TDs, 14 INTS, 1 TD run.
19. Alex Smith, San Francisco: 2,890 yards, 16 TDs, 16 INTS, 2 TDs rushing.
20. Chad Pennington, NY Jets: 3,352 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs.
21. Rex Grossman, Chicago: 3,193 yards, 23 TDs, 20 INTs.
22. Jason Campbell, Washington: 1,297 yards, 10 TDS, 6 INTs, 112 yards rushing.
***
23. Matt Schaub, Houston: 208 yards, TD, 2 INTs.
24. Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay: 1,309 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs
25. Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville: 1,159 yards, 7 TDs, 5 INTS, 2 TDs rushing.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Don't sleep on these guys
I'm still finalizing my 2007 positional rankings for the upcoming football season, and I hope to share those with you in the coming days. Sorry, I'm a busy guy, and being a "guru" takes work. But let me tell you what I'll do for you: how about I throw a few sleepers your way? I like the following guys to exceed expectations this season:
TE Vernon Davis, 49ers: I was ecstatic to grab Davis in one draft last year, as I had him pegged as one of the few rookies who'd make a fantasy impact. And in the games he was healthy, he did, averaging 13 yards a catch and grabbing three TDs. The flip side, of course, is that he missed six games with a broken leg and was a non-factor in a handful of others. That's why you're seeing Davis typically ranked somewhere in the eight-to-10 range among tight ends, but don't let that dissuade you. He has the raw physical skills to surpass some other established vets (Alge Crumpler, L.J. Smith perhaps?) and finish in the top five - or better. A lot of his success, of course, hinges on the continued development of young Alex Smith.
RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: His 1,000 yards and five TDs last year didn't justify his status as a No. 1 RB for a lot of owners last year, as they were essentially the same as his rookie campaign. But looking back, those weak numbers weren't all Ronnie's bad. A lot of it had to do with the Fins' trifecta of terrible QBs (Culpepper, Harrington, Lemon, oh my!) and Nick Saban's ineptitude. The QB play should be at least a little steadier with vet Trent Green manning the ship, assuming he's shaken off the cobwebs, and with new coach Cam Cameron looking for his own take-home version of LaDainian Tomlinson, I can see Brown making a big splash this year. Grabbing him as a No. 2 RB will pay dividends.
QB David Carr, Panthers: Carr's a deep sleeper this year now that he's carrying the clipboard for veteran Jake Delhomme in Carolina after being dumped by the Texans (doesn't get a whole lot lower than that, does it?). But if Delhomme doesn't step it up this year after a disappointing 2006, I can see Carr flourishing in a much more stable environment than the one he left behind in Houston. Some have tried to spin the story as if Houston realized Carr's limitations and gave up on him because wasn't going to cut it as an NFL QB, but I'm not totally buying that - the Texans don't exactly have a history of making good decisions, do they? Anyway, Carr likely won't even be drafted in most leagues, but keep a close eye on Delhomme this preseason and at the start of '07, because the still-young Carr offers a lot more upside than most of the NFL backups out there.
TE Vernon Davis, 49ers: I was ecstatic to grab Davis in one draft last year, as I had him pegged as one of the few rookies who'd make a fantasy impact. And in the games he was healthy, he did, averaging 13 yards a catch and grabbing three TDs. The flip side, of course, is that he missed six games with a broken leg and was a non-factor in a handful of others. That's why you're seeing Davis typically ranked somewhere in the eight-to-10 range among tight ends, but don't let that dissuade you. He has the raw physical skills to surpass some other established vets (Alge Crumpler, L.J. Smith perhaps?) and finish in the top five - or better. A lot of his success, of course, hinges on the continued development of young Alex Smith.
RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: His 1,000 yards and five TDs last year didn't justify his status as a No. 1 RB for a lot of owners last year, as they were essentially the same as his rookie campaign. But looking back, those weak numbers weren't all Ronnie's bad. A lot of it had to do with the Fins' trifecta of terrible QBs (Culpepper, Harrington, Lemon, oh my!) and Nick Saban's ineptitude. The QB play should be at least a little steadier with vet Trent Green manning the ship, assuming he's shaken off the cobwebs, and with new coach Cam Cameron looking for his own take-home version of LaDainian Tomlinson, I can see Brown making a big splash this year. Grabbing him as a No. 2 RB will pay dividends.
QB David Carr, Panthers: Carr's a deep sleeper this year now that he's carrying the clipboard for veteran Jake Delhomme in Carolina after being dumped by the Texans (doesn't get a whole lot lower than that, does it?). But if Delhomme doesn't step it up this year after a disappointing 2006, I can see Carr flourishing in a much more stable environment than the one he left behind in Houston. Some have tried to spin the story as if Houston realized Carr's limitations and gave up on him because wasn't going to cut it as an NFL QB, but I'm not totally buying that - the Texans don't exactly have a history of making good decisions, do they? Anyway, Carr likely won't even be drafted in most leagues, but keep a close eye on Delhomme this preseason and at the start of '07, because the still-young Carr offers a lot more upside than most of the NFL backups out there.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
The tier system
When you're cramming for your football draft, here's a little tip I like to use.
You may have heard of the tier system. The idea's pretty simple: first, put together a rough ranking of players by position. Let's say your QB rankings look like this:
1. Peyton Manning
2. Carson Palmer
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Marc Bulger
6. Donovan McNabb
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Vince Young
9. Philip Rivers
10. Tony Romo
OK, decent start, but your work's not done. A list is all well and good, but it doesn't really help your strategy when you're drafting against other people and trying to fill multiple positions. How do you know when to pull the trigger for a quarterback?
The next step is to break up your list into tiers of comparable players. Looking back at your QB list, let's say you think Palmer has a chance to be just as elite as Peyton this year. Then, you think Brady, Brees and Bulger might finish with similar stats, but then there's a drop-off to McNabb because of injury concerns. Your list might then look something like this:
1. Peyton Manning
2. Carson Palmer
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Marc Bulger
6. Donovan McNabb
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Vince Young
9. Philip Rivers
10. Tony Romo
Now you're ready to draft. If somebody takes Brady in the second round, you don't have to automatically panic, because you see Brees and Bulger are still on the board. You can afford to fill another position, wait another round and then hopefully grab a QB who you think will give you similar stats as Brady.
By the same token, maybe you've waited a little longer to get a QB, and among your top 10, only Young, Rivers and Romo are still available. You're picking next, and according to your tiers there's a considerable drop in potential from Young to the next tier. Now you know the time is right to grab Young.
It's a pretty simple system, but it's helped me make some tough decisions, so give it a try.
You may have heard of the tier system. The idea's pretty simple: first, put together a rough ranking of players by position. Let's say your QB rankings look like this:
1. Peyton Manning
2. Carson Palmer
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Marc Bulger
6. Donovan McNabb
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Vince Young
9. Philip Rivers
10. Tony Romo
OK, decent start, but your work's not done. A list is all well and good, but it doesn't really help your strategy when you're drafting against other people and trying to fill multiple positions. How do you know when to pull the trigger for a quarterback?
The next step is to break up your list into tiers of comparable players. Looking back at your QB list, let's say you think Palmer has a chance to be just as elite as Peyton this year. Then, you think Brady, Brees and Bulger might finish with similar stats, but then there's a drop-off to McNabb because of injury concerns. Your list might then look something like this:
1. Peyton Manning
2. Carson Palmer
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Marc Bulger
6. Donovan McNabb
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Vince Young
9. Philip Rivers
10. Tony Romo
Now you're ready to draft. If somebody takes Brady in the second round, you don't have to automatically panic, because you see Brees and Bulger are still on the board. You can afford to fill another position, wait another round and then hopefully grab a QB who you think will give you similar stats as Brady.
By the same token, maybe you've waited a little longer to get a QB, and among your top 10, only Young, Rivers and Romo are still available. You're picking next, and according to your tiers there's a considerable drop in potential from Young to the next tier. Now you know the time is right to grab Young.
It's a pretty simple system, but it's helped me make some tough decisions, so give it a try.
Sunday, August 05, 2007
Where have you gone, Vince Coleman?
Base stealing is something of a lost art in the major leagues. Long gone are the days when Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman were tearing up the basepaths - we haven't seen anyone crack the 80-steal mark since Henderson (93) and Coleman (81) led their respective leagues in swipes in 1988.
Teams are running less frequently than they did in the free-wheeling '80s, which has made the stolen base category so vital in fantasy baseball.
That explains why multi-talented speed merchants Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford and Ichiro Suzuki are considered elite fantasy stars, and why speedsters such as Shane Victorino (32 steals) and Brian Roberts (32), who also contribute in other hitting categories, are useful commodities.
There are, of course, some other fringe players who tend to be overvalued simply because of their wheels. Depending on where you stand in your league's stolen base category (and excluding those in head-to-head leagues), the way you handle these types of players can ultimately determine your fate.
At this point in the season, you should have a good idea of where you stand in each category and if you'll be able to make a move upward. If you're lagging far behind in steals, what's the sense in holding on to a mostly one-dimensional base stealer? On the flip side, if you think you can actually make up ground in stolen bases, that one dimension might be just what you're looking for.
Wherever you stand in steals, here are a few of the key guys to consider either picking up or trading away for help elsewhere:
• Juan Pierre (44 steals through Saturday): The Dodgers outfielder has long been prized for his running abilities, but he hasn't really mastered hitting, particularly this year. His .277 batting average isn't terrible, but his 27 RBIs and zero home runs are.
• Willy Taveras (29): A move to the Colorado Rockies and Coors Field this season helped the quick Taveras also become a batting-average booster (.317). That makes his "power" numbers (two homers, 22 RBIs) a bit easier to swallow.
• Chone Figgins (28): It's almost an identical story for Figgins, who's hitting a robust .339 but has little to no power (1 HR, 37 RBIs). He got off to a very slow start for the Angels but has stayed hot throughout the summer months, so the hits and steals should both keep coming.
• Julio Lugo (26): The high-priced shortstop acquisition was looking like a colossal bust for the Boston Red Sox. His average had dipped to an almost-unfathomable .189 on July 2, which despite his steady stolen base total forced some owners to outright drop him. Lugo has raised his average to a less putrid .222 thanks to a sizzling month. If he's still available, or if you've put up with him all this time, it seems he'll no longer be a disaster at the plate.
• Corey Patterson (28): Patterson had a nice bounce-back season last year, his first with the Baltimore Orioles, thanks mainly to a career high in steals (45), along with 16 home runs. Patterson's still running this year, but he's gone yard only five times, which isn't exactly what his owners had in mind.
Teams are running less frequently than they did in the free-wheeling '80s, which has made the stolen base category so vital in fantasy baseball.
That explains why multi-talented speed merchants Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford and Ichiro Suzuki are considered elite fantasy stars, and why speedsters such as Shane Victorino (32 steals) and Brian Roberts (32), who also contribute in other hitting categories, are useful commodities.
There are, of course, some other fringe players who tend to be overvalued simply because of their wheels. Depending on where you stand in your league's stolen base category (and excluding those in head-to-head leagues), the way you handle these types of players can ultimately determine your fate.
At this point in the season, you should have a good idea of where you stand in each category and if you'll be able to make a move upward. If you're lagging far behind in steals, what's the sense in holding on to a mostly one-dimensional base stealer? On the flip side, if you think you can actually make up ground in stolen bases, that one dimension might be just what you're looking for.
Wherever you stand in steals, here are a few of the key guys to consider either picking up or trading away for help elsewhere:
• Juan Pierre (44 steals through Saturday): The Dodgers outfielder has long been prized for his running abilities, but he hasn't really mastered hitting, particularly this year. His .277 batting average isn't terrible, but his 27 RBIs and zero home runs are.
• Willy Taveras (29): A move to the Colorado Rockies and Coors Field this season helped the quick Taveras also become a batting-average booster (.317). That makes his "power" numbers (two homers, 22 RBIs) a bit easier to swallow.
• Chone Figgins (28): It's almost an identical story for Figgins, who's hitting a robust .339 but has little to no power (1 HR, 37 RBIs). He got off to a very slow start for the Angels but has stayed hot throughout the summer months, so the hits and steals should both keep coming.
• Julio Lugo (26): The high-priced shortstop acquisition was looking like a colossal bust for the Boston Red Sox. His average had dipped to an almost-unfathomable .189 on July 2, which despite his steady stolen base total forced some owners to outright drop him. Lugo has raised his average to a less putrid .222 thanks to a sizzling month. If he's still available, or if you've put up with him all this time, it seems he'll no longer be a disaster at the plate.
• Corey Patterson (28): Patterson had a nice bounce-back season last year, his first with the Baltimore Orioles, thanks mainly to a career high in steals (45), along with 16 home runs. Patterson's still running this year, but he's gone yard only five times, which isn't exactly what his owners had in mind.
Saturday, August 04, 2007
Down with Upton
Time to get those waiver wire claims in people. Justin Upton has arrived.
In case you don't know, Upton was the top overall pick in the 2005. He's just 19, but he's already made it up to the big leagues with the Arizona Diamondbacks after lighting the minor leagues on fire this season (.319, 18 HR, 70 RBIs, 19 SBs between Double-A and Triple-A). He'll be roaming the outfield in the desert for the forseeable future with Carlos Quentin on the DL, and the D-Backs certainly hope he'll stay there for years to come.
Upton's been called a legit five-tool prospect. He's the younger brother of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' B.J. Upton, a fine young player in his own right who already looks like a big-time major leaguer. We saw it take a little while for B.J. to adjust to the big leagues when he was first called, but he was struggling defensively and the Rays were still trying to find a position for him before eventually settling on CF this season. Justin, already an outfielder by trade, will hopefully avoid those types of struggles, although it's asking a heck of a lot for a 19-year-old kid to make a seamless transition to the majors, in the middle of a playoff race no less. Still, he's certainly worth picking up based on potential alone, and he's a no-brainer pickup in keeper leagues.
In case you don't know, Upton was the top overall pick in the 2005. He's just 19, but he's already made it up to the big leagues with the Arizona Diamondbacks after lighting the minor leagues on fire this season (.319, 18 HR, 70 RBIs, 19 SBs between Double-A and Triple-A). He'll be roaming the outfield in the desert for the forseeable future with Carlos Quentin on the DL, and the D-Backs certainly hope he'll stay there for years to come.
Upton's been called a legit five-tool prospect. He's the younger brother of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' B.J. Upton, a fine young player in his own right who already looks like a big-time major leaguer. We saw it take a little while for B.J. to adjust to the big leagues when he was first called, but he was struggling defensively and the Rays were still trying to find a position for him before eventually settling on CF this season. Justin, already an outfielder by trade, will hopefully avoid those types of struggles, although it's asking a heck of a lot for a 19-year-old kid to make a seamless transition to the majors, in the middle of a playoff race no less. Still, he's certainly worth picking up based on potential alone, and he's a no-brainer pickup in keeper leagues.
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