Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Welcome back, LJ

ESPN.com is reporting Larry Johnson has re-signed with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Johnson, who had been holding out all preseason, has inked a five-year extension and is back at practice. It's great news for the Chiefs, who really had no shot of being competitive this year without LJ, and it's great news for anybody who's already taken him in their fantasy draft.

How does this news affect those who haven't already drafted? Personally, I'm sticking to my running back rankings: I have Johnson slotted as the No. 3 RB, right behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson.

I've seen some other outlets drop Johnson out of the top five, and not just because of his contract situation. They're awfully worried about the extraordinary number of carries (416) last year and his advanced age (28), and to a lesser extent, the poor quality of the Chiefs' offensive skill players. But I think they're going a little overboard.

Yes, Johnson did a lot of running last year, but keep in mind he wasn't a full-time starter his first two seasons in the NFL, and he wasn't a full-time starter in college until his senior year. Take a look at his career workload:

PENN STATE
2000: 75 carries.
2001: 71 carries.
2002: 271 carries.

KANSAS CITY
2003: 20 carries.
2004: 120 carries.
2005: 336 carries.
2006: 416 carries.

As you can see, outside of last year, he doesn't have a whole lot of mileage on him. And it's not like he's over 30, either. He's still in his prime, or perhaps just entering his prime given his history. Sure, other backs have fallen off the map the year after they racked up 400 rushing attempts - but other backs aren't LJ. Herm Edwards is going to run him into the ground (think back to how he used Curtis Martin in New York), which means LJ has a chance to be one of the league's most productive players just on the sheer volume of carries he'll get. He alone is the focal point of that offense - and how many other NFL backs can you say that about?

I put Johnson behind Jackson in my rankings only because Jackson's a more explosive back and because of his tremendous involvement in the passing game. He's less of a risk than LJ - but I wouldn't have any problem taking Johnson at No. 3.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jason
Got a d-league draft in three days. Any suggestions. Heavy weight on tackles. 5 dline/linebackers, 4 dbacks, two safetys

JASON BARTOLONE said...

I'm afraid you're asking the wrong guy, I have never played in an IDP (individual defensive player) league. I came close one year but the commish decided to change the format just to a regular league.

There is one rookie LB I can recommend, Paul Posluszny of the Bills. Sure, I'm biased (Penn State grad) but if you're looking for tackles, he's your guy. He's PSU's all-time leader in that category, and he's going to start for Buffalo.

Hope that helps.