TAMPA, Fla. - It wouldn't be a New York Yankees training camp without controversy.
The latest flap is over the "relationship" between Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Don't get any ideas, Red Sox fans - I know A-Rod's recent comments about "not sleeping over Jeter's house" will give you boo-birds some ammo. But we're talking strictly about their friendship, or the perceived lack thereof in the past few years.
There was no sign of hard feelings between the two superstars when the Yankees began full-squad workouts at Legends Field on Tuesday. They were all smiles while taking batting practice together and running through some conditioning drills. And Jeter even responded to Rodriguez's comments a day later in a media session, reinforcing the idea the two aren't as close as they once were but haven't let that affect the clubhouse dynamic or play on the field.
For fantasy purposes, we have to remember these two guys have been lightning rods for controversy and headlines for most of their careers. Everything they say and do, every little happening, is going to be magnified and analyzed in the media spotlight. And while A-Rod's performance did take a slight dip last year as the Big Apple pressure-cooker took its toll, he still finished with top-flight numbers that weren't far off his career averages. And frankly, that's all that matters.
A few other thoughts:
- Johnny Damon played through a lot of pain last year, including a broken bone in his foot. He still managed 25 stolen bases, a three-year high, although he swiped only one bag in the final month of the year. Still, he didn't seem to have much trouble running some sprints (albeit not at full speed) Tuesday. I realize he's 33, but batting at the top of this Yankees lineup is a good way to ward off Father Time, and his ability to run makes him a very useful second or third outfielder.
- I think Kei Igawa is a pretty intriguing player, and judging by the 25-or-so Japanese media members who patiently waited around to talk to him Tuesday, I'm not alone. Projected as the Yankees' fifth starter, the lefty won't go very high on draft day in mixed leagues, if at all, but he should be on your radar. There's a potential for double-digit wins just by virtue of playing for the Yanks (see: Aaron Small, 2005), but of course we really don't know how he'll adjust to the American game. Not a bad guy to tack on at the end of your draft when you're just looking for names you recognize.
- No sign of Bernie Williams at camp ... not that you were going to draft him anyway, but nobody wants to see his Yankees career end with hard feelings.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Sunday, February 18, 2007
CLOSING TIME - AL
While pondering what ever happened to Semisonic, I decided to break down the various closer situations in the AL. Why? Well, because it's the one position that's directly linked to one fantasy stat (saves), and only one guy usually gets the job on each team. Also, because I'm a geek.
BALTIMORE
Chris Ray was a rookie revelation in 2006, notching 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA while replacing B.J. Ryan. The kid could be even better this year now that the Orioles have overhauled their bullpen (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker) in an effort to compete with the hellish lineups of the AL East. Remains to be seen if those guys can hack it, but Ray has proven himself. Baez has solid closing experience just in case.
BOSTON
Talk about messing with a good thing. The Red Sox are taking a big gamble by moving Jonathan Papelbon - who was amazing as a rookie closer - into the rotation. He'll probably be succeeded by free-agent signee Joel Pineiro, owner of a bloated 6.36 ERA last year as a starter in Seattle. Pineiro has never closed in the big leagues before and made just 15 relief appearances in '06, where he was effective. Veterans Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez are there if he falters, but they're all better suited as setup guys, and youngsters Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman probably aren't ready at this point. Pineiro's likely the guy for now, and he'll get his chances, but there are a lot of other closers I'd take before calling his name.
CHICAGO
Hard-throwing Bobby Jenks was surprisingly reliable all year for the White Sox in his first full year as closer. He's reportedly lost about 25 pounds this offseason in an effort to be better conditioned (Guess he decided to listen to Ozzie Guillen after all), and with the Sox looking like contenders once more, he should approach the 40-save plateau again. If he can work that Trim Spa magic on his 4.00 ERA, he'll be among the AL's elite closers. Veteran Mike MacDougal is there in case he falters.
CLEVELAND
Touched on this situation in my last blog. Joe Borowski's the guy to own here now that Keith Foulke's called it a career. He'll get you saves, but he doesn't have the upside of some other younger guys out there.
DETROIT
Todd Jones has another go-around in Detroit. He's defied the odds the past two years with the Tigers and Marlins, saving 37 and 40 games, respectively. Jones is a little hard to figure ... he's not exactly overpowering (only 28 Ks in 64 innings last year); I guess a big part of it is he's a light-hearted guy who doesn't take himself too seriously, good traits for a closer. Joel Zumaya is breathing down his neck with those 100-plus mph fastballs (although it remains to be seen how our "Guitar Hero" fares after hurting himself air-guitaring on PS2. Take it easy on the "Smoke on the Water," big guy!). It's only a matter of time before Zumaya takes over the reins, but Jones is the man for the time being. Gotta draft the veteran first, but stick Zumaya in your back pocket anyway, because he can still help you.
KANSAS CITY
Octavio Dotel wasn't exactly the ace in the hole the Yankees were counting on for their middle-relief woes last season (only 10 IP), but apparently he showed enough in those fleeting moments for the Royals to sign him and stick him at the end of their bullpen. On the positive side, he is more than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery (generally considered the grace period for pitchers to recover nowadays), and he's had success closing in the past with Oakland. K.C. would really like to have a stable closer after watching young Ambiorix Burgos and some other guys cough up leads on a nightly basis. Thirty-somethings David Riske and Joe Nelson are also around, but ideally the Royals would like to keep them as setup men.
LOS ANGELES
Did you realize Francisco Rodriguez is only 25? Damn. I'll probably rank K-Rod as my preseason No. 1 closer. Minuscule ratios, big strikeout numbers ... nothing not to like here. Scot (too cool for a second T) Shields is next in line, and he'd probably make a good closer on some other team, but the Halos smartly hung onto him for the eighth inning, where he excels. Shields can help those in deep mixed leagues.
MINNESOTA
If Rodriguez is No. 1, Joe Nathan is probably No. 1A. He came just short of 40 saves for a third straight season last year (36), but he reached new lows in ERA and WHIP. Once K-Rod's off the board, Nathan should quickly follow.
NEW YORK
You know the drill here. Mariano Rivera. Need we say more? Haters are waiting for him to fall off, and he really never has. In 2006, Mo didn't quite reach 2005's incredible numbers (probably should have won the Cy Young that year, but that's another story for another blog), yet he was still among the league's best. No reason to think otherwise this year, especially since Joe Torre and the Yanks are finally wising up about their overuse and abuse of their relievers. Supposedly, Rivera will be restricted only to the ninth inning, which should keep him off the DL and strong for the late summer (and postseason). Don't read too much into his recent mouthing off about his contract - Rivera's a straight shooter, and he deserves to get paid. Kyle Farnsworth would close in his absence, but you know that's basically a doomsday scenario for the Bombers.
OAKLAND
Huston Street looked like a big-time sophomore slump candidate at the start of last year. The 2005 AL Rookie of the Year sported an ERA well above 4.00 until June, and he blew a whopping 11 saves (second most among AL closers). He was dealing with a strained pectoral, however, and even spent some time on the DL. The A's are counting on a big bounceback, and so should you, because Street's a top-10 closer.
SEATTLE
J.J. Putz was no putz in '06 (36 saves, 2.30 ERA). He made both Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano expendable, really sinking his teeth into the Mariners' closer job. There could be some concern about how many opportunities Putz gets, which probably knocks him down just a peg from the elite guys, but that wasn't a huge problem last year even though the Ms were pretty dreadful. I think he can come close to those numbers again.
TAMPA BAY
His days as a starter are pretty much over, but Seth McClung has a decent shot at closing out games for the Devil Rays. Joe Maddon's bullpen was "amorphous" (his words) last year, but I'm sure in the second-year manager's ideal world McClung would clamp down, take over ninth-inning duties and never let go. The big guy (6-6, 255) has dominant stuff when he's on, but he's prone to breakdowns and the occasional bad luck that comes hand-in-hand with being a Ray. McClung's not gonna get a ton of save chances, and if he really tanks they won't hesitate to go to someone else (Dan Miceli? Shawn Camp? Who knows? Who cares?), but he's a sleeper to be sure.
TEXAS
Akinori Otsuka was so good last year (32-for-36 in save opportunities; 2.11 ERA). How do the Rangers reward him? By signing Eric Gagne and handing HIM Otsuka's closer role. It's easy to forget just how great the injury-prone Gagne used to be - a simpler time, back in the early '00s, when Britney Spears was hot. Can Gagne come back? Maybe. Anything's possible. Britney could grow her hair back (Apparently the carpet really does match the drapes now - just had to be the first to make that joke). Anyway, moving to the AL doesn't help Gagne's case, though, and neither does playing in Arlington. Could be a disaster. Texas would be prudent to hold onto Otsuka - who's not happy, as you'd expect - and he'll get chances when/if Gagne goes down or needs a break. Both guys have potential, which puts them both somewhere around the middle of the pack among the league's top 30 or so closers.
TORONTO
Lefty B.J. Ryan is an elite stopper, a lock to be among the top five closers drafted. He makes a lot of multiple-inning saves, which doesn't help matters when you're trying to squeeze a full season out of him, but Ryan is one of those rare guys capable of 100 Ks and 40 saves. You can build around him.
BALTIMORE
Chris Ray was a rookie revelation in 2006, notching 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA while replacing B.J. Ryan. The kid could be even better this year now that the Orioles have overhauled their bullpen (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker) in an effort to compete with the hellish lineups of the AL East. Remains to be seen if those guys can hack it, but Ray has proven himself. Baez has solid closing experience just in case.
BOSTON
Talk about messing with a good thing. The Red Sox are taking a big gamble by moving Jonathan Papelbon - who was amazing as a rookie closer - into the rotation. He'll probably be succeeded by free-agent signee Joel Pineiro, owner of a bloated 6.36 ERA last year as a starter in Seattle. Pineiro has never closed in the big leagues before and made just 15 relief appearances in '06, where he was effective. Veterans Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez are there if he falters, but they're all better suited as setup guys, and youngsters Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman probably aren't ready at this point. Pineiro's likely the guy for now, and he'll get his chances, but there are a lot of other closers I'd take before calling his name.
CHICAGO
Hard-throwing Bobby Jenks was surprisingly reliable all year for the White Sox in his first full year as closer. He's reportedly lost about 25 pounds this offseason in an effort to be better conditioned (Guess he decided to listen to Ozzie Guillen after all), and with the Sox looking like contenders once more, he should approach the 40-save plateau again. If he can work that Trim Spa magic on his 4.00 ERA, he'll be among the AL's elite closers. Veteran Mike MacDougal is there in case he falters.
CLEVELAND
Touched on this situation in my last blog. Joe Borowski's the guy to own here now that Keith Foulke's called it a career. He'll get you saves, but he doesn't have the upside of some other younger guys out there.
DETROIT
Todd Jones has another go-around in Detroit. He's defied the odds the past two years with the Tigers and Marlins, saving 37 and 40 games, respectively. Jones is a little hard to figure ... he's not exactly overpowering (only 28 Ks in 64 innings last year); I guess a big part of it is he's a light-hearted guy who doesn't take himself too seriously, good traits for a closer. Joel Zumaya is breathing down his neck with those 100-plus mph fastballs (although it remains to be seen how our "Guitar Hero" fares after hurting himself air-guitaring on PS2. Take it easy on the "Smoke on the Water," big guy!). It's only a matter of time before Zumaya takes over the reins, but Jones is the man for the time being. Gotta draft the veteran first, but stick Zumaya in your back pocket anyway, because he can still help you.
KANSAS CITY
Octavio Dotel wasn't exactly the ace in the hole the Yankees were counting on for their middle-relief woes last season (only 10 IP), but apparently he showed enough in those fleeting moments for the Royals to sign him and stick him at the end of their bullpen. On the positive side, he is more than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery (generally considered the grace period for pitchers to recover nowadays), and he's had success closing in the past with Oakland. K.C. would really like to have a stable closer after watching young Ambiorix Burgos and some other guys cough up leads on a nightly basis. Thirty-somethings David Riske and Joe Nelson are also around, but ideally the Royals would like to keep them as setup men.
LOS ANGELES
Did you realize Francisco Rodriguez is only 25? Damn. I'll probably rank K-Rod as my preseason No. 1 closer. Minuscule ratios, big strikeout numbers ... nothing not to like here. Scot (too cool for a second T) Shields is next in line, and he'd probably make a good closer on some other team, but the Halos smartly hung onto him for the eighth inning, where he excels. Shields can help those in deep mixed leagues.
MINNESOTA
If Rodriguez is No. 1, Joe Nathan is probably No. 1A. He came just short of 40 saves for a third straight season last year (36), but he reached new lows in ERA and WHIP. Once K-Rod's off the board, Nathan should quickly follow.
NEW YORK
You know the drill here. Mariano Rivera. Need we say more? Haters are waiting for him to fall off, and he really never has. In 2006, Mo didn't quite reach 2005's incredible numbers (probably should have won the Cy Young that year, but that's another story for another blog), yet he was still among the league's best. No reason to think otherwise this year, especially since Joe Torre and the Yanks are finally wising up about their overuse and abuse of their relievers. Supposedly, Rivera will be restricted only to the ninth inning, which should keep him off the DL and strong for the late summer (and postseason). Don't read too much into his recent mouthing off about his contract - Rivera's a straight shooter, and he deserves to get paid. Kyle Farnsworth would close in his absence, but you know that's basically a doomsday scenario for the Bombers.
OAKLAND
Huston Street looked like a big-time sophomore slump candidate at the start of last year. The 2005 AL Rookie of the Year sported an ERA well above 4.00 until June, and he blew a whopping 11 saves (second most among AL closers). He was dealing with a strained pectoral, however, and even spent some time on the DL. The A's are counting on a big bounceback, and so should you, because Street's a top-10 closer.
SEATTLE
J.J. Putz was no putz in '06 (36 saves, 2.30 ERA). He made both Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano expendable, really sinking his teeth into the Mariners' closer job. There could be some concern about how many opportunities Putz gets, which probably knocks him down just a peg from the elite guys, but that wasn't a huge problem last year even though the Ms were pretty dreadful. I think he can come close to those numbers again.
TAMPA BAY
His days as a starter are pretty much over, but Seth McClung has a decent shot at closing out games for the Devil Rays. Joe Maddon's bullpen was "amorphous" (his words) last year, but I'm sure in the second-year manager's ideal world McClung would clamp down, take over ninth-inning duties and never let go. The big guy (6-6, 255) has dominant stuff when he's on, but he's prone to breakdowns and the occasional bad luck that comes hand-in-hand with being a Ray. McClung's not gonna get a ton of save chances, and if he really tanks they won't hesitate to go to someone else (Dan Miceli? Shawn Camp? Who knows? Who cares?), but he's a sleeper to be sure.
TEXAS
Akinori Otsuka was so good last year (32-for-36 in save opportunities; 2.11 ERA). How do the Rangers reward him? By signing Eric Gagne and handing HIM Otsuka's closer role. It's easy to forget just how great the injury-prone Gagne used to be - a simpler time, back in the early '00s, when Britney Spears was hot. Can Gagne come back? Maybe. Anything's possible. Britney could grow her hair back (Apparently the carpet really does match the drapes now - just had to be the first to make that joke). Anyway, moving to the AL doesn't help Gagne's case, though, and neither does playing in Arlington. Could be a disaster. Texas would be prudent to hold onto Otsuka - who's not happy, as you'd expect - and he'll get chances when/if Gagne goes down or needs a break. Both guys have potential, which puts them both somewhere around the middle of the pack among the league's top 30 or so closers.
TORONTO
Lefty B.J. Ryan is an elite stopper, a lock to be among the top five closers drafted. He makes a lot of multiple-inning saves, which doesn't help matters when you're trying to squeeze a full season out of him, but Ryan is one of those rare guys capable of 100 Ks and 40 saves. You can build around him.
Foulke you!
Keith Foulke has retired without throwing a pitch for the Cleveland Indians, throwing their closer situation into a bit of disarray. Foulke was the clubhouse front-runner to win the closer's job, even though he hadn't earned a save since 2005 and hadn't really been the same since closing out the 2004 World Series for the Red Sox.
It's probably better this way, since the Indians won't have to pay him, and fantasy players won't have to waste a pick on the guy. And his retirement opens the door for veteran Joe Borowski to win the job. Borowski doesn't exactly have an extensive track record as a closer, but he's succeeded in the role before, in 2003 with the Cubs (33 saves) and last year with the Marlins (36 saves), so he's not a bad pick as a second-tier guy. Couple warning signs though: He's 35, he's switching back to the AL, and he actually signed with the Phillies this season as a setup guy but failed his physical.
Looking further down the Tribe's totem pole, Fernando Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt and the ageless Roberto Hernandez are waiting in the wings, but none of them has much appeal on draft day. Borowski's the guy for now.
Next up, I'll take a look at the rest of the closer situations around the AL, followed by the NL, so stay tuned.
It's probably better this way, since the Indians won't have to pay him, and fantasy players won't have to waste a pick on the guy. And his retirement opens the door for veteran Joe Borowski to win the job. Borowski doesn't exactly have an extensive track record as a closer, but he's succeeded in the role before, in 2003 with the Cubs (33 saves) and last year with the Marlins (36 saves), so he's not a bad pick as a second-tier guy. Couple warning signs though: He's 35, he's switching back to the AL, and he actually signed with the Phillies this season as a setup guy but failed his physical.
Looking further down the Tribe's totem pole, Fernando Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt and the ageless Roberto Hernandez are waiting in the wings, but none of them has much appeal on draft day. Borowski's the guy for now.
Next up, I'll take a look at the rest of the closer situations around the AL, followed by the NL, so stay tuned.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Cheat sheet
Spring has sprung. It may not be official yet, and the northerners up to their eyes in snowdrifts probably don't believe it, but players will slowly be trickling into major league camps in Florida and Arizona this week. Baseball is almost back.
With that in mind, here's my preliminary top 15 fantasy players to help you get started:
1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals:
Now a U.S. citizen, Phat Albert is the most dangerous American to wield a bat.
2. SS Jose Reyes, Mets:
One of the few players who combine outstanding speed with top-notch offensive production. He's got to be the first shortstop off the board.
3. OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs:
Takes a slight dip because of the loss of 2B eligibility and the possible complacency that comes with a fat contract. But he still has 40-40 potential, and guys like that don't grow on trees. Plus, he didn't have Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez in the lineup in Washington.
4. 3B Ryan Howard, Phillies:
The secret's out this year, and you'll pay a lot more for Howard on draft day. But he could become the first player to crack 61 homers legitimately ... at least we think it's legitimate.
5. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees:
A-Rod posted elite numbers in what most considered a "down" year in 2006. I'm expecting another run at the MVP award ... and so are a million angry Yankees fans.
6. DH David Ortiz, Red Sox:
Virtually a lock for 40 homers and 130 RBIs as long as Manny is batting behind him in Beantown. Pretty much a safe bet.
7. Carlos Beltran, Mets
Made a huge jump in the power department (41 HRs, 116 RBIs, both career highs) last year while still flashing some of his speed (17 SBs). Beltran will help you in multiple categories.
8. OF Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
If a Devil Ray bats .305, steals 58 bases and hits 18 home runs, does anyone notice? Fantasy players do. By the way, Crawford is 25 years old.
9. SP Johan Santana, Twins
Unquestionably the top pitcher in baseball, fantasy or otherwise. Draft him and pencil him in for 15 wins, 130-plus Ks and a sub-3.00 ERA. Move him up depending on how much your league values pitching.
10. 3B David Wright, Mets
A third-sacker capable of hitting .300 with 40 homers AND 20 steals. Now I know why the chicks dig him.
11. 3B Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
Already has the makings of a future Hall of Famer at age 23 after three stellar full seasons. Don't believe me? Check out his most similar players at baseball-reference.com. However, this news should be a tiny a concern.
12. DH Travis Hafner, Indians
Pronk was as dangerous as any hitter in the league last year before suffering a broken hand. He's an OPS machine and could make a run at an MVP if the Tribe lives up to lofty expectations.
13. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies
Enough evidence to suggest Utley is a considerable step ahead of the rest of the league's second basemen. There just aren't that many guys capable of doing what he can do at this position.
14. OF Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
Vlad will be on the wrong side of 30 this year, but that wouldn't scare me away from taking him early in the second round. You can still squeeze some more production out of him.
15. OF Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
Pretty much the same story as our friend Big Papi: Like the sun rising in the East, Manny will get his 40 HRs and 130 RBIs if healthy.
With that in mind, here's my preliminary top 15 fantasy players to help you get started:
1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals:
Now a U.S. citizen, Phat Albert is the most dangerous American to wield a bat.
2. SS Jose Reyes, Mets:
One of the few players who combine outstanding speed with top-notch offensive production. He's got to be the first shortstop off the board.
3. OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs:
Takes a slight dip because of the loss of 2B eligibility and the possible complacency that comes with a fat contract. But he still has 40-40 potential, and guys like that don't grow on trees. Plus, he didn't have Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez in the lineup in Washington.
4. 3B Ryan Howard, Phillies:
The secret's out this year, and you'll pay a lot more for Howard on draft day. But he could become the first player to crack 61 homers legitimately ... at least we think it's legitimate.
5. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees:
A-Rod posted elite numbers in what most considered a "down" year in 2006. I'm expecting another run at the MVP award ... and so are a million angry Yankees fans.
6. DH David Ortiz, Red Sox:
Virtually a lock for 40 homers and 130 RBIs as long as Manny is batting behind him in Beantown. Pretty much a safe bet.
7. Carlos Beltran, Mets
Made a huge jump in the power department (41 HRs, 116 RBIs, both career highs) last year while still flashing some of his speed (17 SBs). Beltran will help you in multiple categories.
8. OF Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
If a Devil Ray bats .305, steals 58 bases and hits 18 home runs, does anyone notice? Fantasy players do. By the way, Crawford is 25 years old.
9. SP Johan Santana, Twins
Unquestionably the top pitcher in baseball, fantasy or otherwise. Draft him and pencil him in for 15 wins, 130-plus Ks and a sub-3.00 ERA. Move him up depending on how much your league values pitching.
10. 3B David Wright, Mets
A third-sacker capable of hitting .300 with 40 homers AND 20 steals. Now I know why the chicks dig him.
11. 3B Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
Already has the makings of a future Hall of Famer at age 23 after three stellar full seasons. Don't believe me? Check out his most similar players at baseball-reference.com. However, this news should be a tiny a concern.
12. DH Travis Hafner, Indians
Pronk was as dangerous as any hitter in the league last year before suffering a broken hand. He's an OPS machine and could make a run at an MVP if the Tribe lives up to lofty expectations.
13. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies
Enough evidence to suggest Utley is a considerable step ahead of the rest of the league's second basemen. There just aren't that many guys capable of doing what he can do at this position.
14. OF Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
Vlad will be on the wrong side of 30 this year, but that wouldn't scare me away from taking him early in the second round. You can still squeeze some more production out of him.
15. OF Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
Pretty much the same story as our friend Big Papi: Like the sun rising in the East, Manny will get his 40 HRs and 130 RBIs if healthy.
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