CLOSING TIME - AL

While pondering what ever happened to Semisonic, I decided to break down the various closer situations in the AL. Why? Well, because it's the one position that's directly linked to one fantasy stat (saves), and only one guy usually gets the job on each team. Also, because I'm a geek.

BALTIMORE
Chris Ray was a rookie revelation in 2006, notching 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA while replacing B.J. Ryan. The kid could be even better this year now that the Orioles have overhauled their bullpen (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker) in an effort to compete with the hellish lineups of the AL East. Remains to be seen if those guys can hack it, but Ray has proven himself. Baez has solid closing experience just in case.

BOSTON
Talk about messing with a good thing. The Red Sox are taking a big gamble by moving Jonathan Papelbon - who was amazing as a rookie closer - into the rotation. He'll probably be succeeded by free-agent signee Joel Pineiro, owner of a bloated 6.36 ERA last year as a starter in Seattle. Pineiro has never closed in the big leagues before and made just 15 relief appearances in '06, where he was effective. Veterans Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez are there if he falters, but they're all better suited as setup guys, and youngsters Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman probably aren't ready at this point. Pineiro's likely the guy for now, and he'll get his chances, but there are a lot of other closers I'd take before calling his name.

CHICAGO
Hard-throwing Bobby Jenks was surprisingly reliable all year for the White Sox in his first full year as closer. He's reportedly lost about 25 pounds this offseason in an effort to be better conditioned (Guess he decided to listen to Ozzie Guillen after all), and with the Sox looking like contenders once more, he should approach the 40-save plateau again. If he can work that Trim Spa magic on his 4.00 ERA, he'll be among the AL's elite closers. Veteran Mike MacDougal is there in case he falters.

CLEVELAND
Touched on this situation in my last blog. Joe Borowski's the guy to own here now that Keith Foulke's called it a career. He'll get you saves, but he doesn't have the upside of some other younger guys out there.

DETROIT
Todd Jones has another go-around in Detroit. He's defied the odds the past two years with the Tigers and Marlins, saving 37 and 40 games, respectively. Jones is a little hard to figure ... he's not exactly overpowering (only 28 Ks in 64 innings last year); I guess a big part of it is he's a light-hearted guy who doesn't take himself too seriously, good traits for a closer. Joel Zumaya is breathing down his neck with those 100-plus mph fastballs (although it remains to be seen how our "Guitar Hero" fares after hurting himself air-guitaring on PS2. Take it easy on the "Smoke on the Water," big guy!). It's only a matter of time before Zumaya takes over the reins, but Jones is the man for the time being. Gotta draft the veteran first, but stick Zumaya in your back pocket anyway, because he can still help you.

KANSAS CITY
Octavio Dotel wasn't exactly the ace in the hole the Yankees were counting on for their middle-relief woes last season (only 10 IP), but apparently he showed enough in those fleeting moments for the Royals to sign him and stick him at the end of their bullpen. On the positive side, he is more than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery (generally considered the grace period for pitchers to recover nowadays), and he's had success closing in the past with Oakland. K.C. would really like to have a stable closer after watching young Ambiorix Burgos and some other guys cough up leads on a nightly basis. Thirty-somethings David Riske and Joe Nelson are also around, but ideally the Royals would like to keep them as setup men.

LOS ANGELES
Did you realize Francisco Rodriguez is only 25? Damn. I'll probably rank K-Rod as my preseason No. 1 closer. Minuscule ratios, big strikeout numbers ... nothing not to like here. Scot (too cool for a second T) Shields is next in line, and he'd probably make a good closer on some other team, but the Halos smartly hung onto him for the eighth inning, where he excels. Shields can help those in deep mixed leagues.

MINNESOTA
If Rodriguez is No. 1, Joe Nathan is probably No. 1A. He came just short of 40 saves for a third straight season last year (36), but he reached new lows in ERA and WHIP. Once K-Rod's off the board, Nathan should quickly follow.

NEW YORK
You know the drill here. Mariano Rivera. Need we say more? Haters are waiting for him to fall off, and he really never has. In 2006, Mo didn't quite reach 2005's incredible numbers (probably should have won the Cy Young that year, but that's another story for another blog), yet he was still among the league's best. No reason to think otherwise this year, especially since Joe Torre and the Yanks are finally wising up about their overuse and abuse of their relievers. Supposedly, Rivera will be restricted only to the ninth inning, which should keep him off the DL and strong for the late summer (and postseason). Don't read too much into his recent mouthing off about his contract - Rivera's a straight shooter, and he deserves to get paid. Kyle Farnsworth would close in his absence, but you know that's basically a doomsday scenario for the Bombers.

OAKLAND
Huston Street looked like a big-time sophomore slump candidate at the start of last year. The 2005 AL Rookie of the Year sported an ERA well above 4.00 until June, and he blew a whopping 11 saves (second most among AL closers). He was dealing with a strained pectoral, however, and even spent some time on the DL. The A's are counting on a big bounceback, and so should you, because Street's a top-10 closer.

SEATTLE
J.J. Putz was no putz in '06 (36 saves, 2.30 ERA). He made both Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano expendable, really sinking his teeth into the Mariners' closer job. There could be some concern about how many opportunities Putz gets, which probably knocks him down just a peg from the elite guys, but that wasn't a huge problem last year even though the Ms were pretty dreadful. I think he can come close to those numbers again.

TAMPA BAY
His days as a starter are pretty much over, but Seth McClung has a decent shot at closing out games for the Devil Rays. Joe Maddon's bullpen was "amorphous" (his words) last year, but I'm sure in the second-year manager's ideal world McClung would clamp down, take over ninth-inning duties and never let go. The big guy (6-6, 255) has dominant stuff when he's on, but he's prone to breakdowns and the occasional bad luck that comes hand-in-hand with being a Ray. McClung's not gonna get a ton of save chances, and if he really tanks they won't hesitate to go to someone else (Dan Miceli? Shawn Camp? Who knows? Who cares?), but he's a sleeper to be sure.

TEXAS
Akinori Otsuka was so good last year (32-for-36 in save opportunities; 2.11 ERA). How do the Rangers reward him? By signing Eric Gagne and handing HIM Otsuka's closer role. It's easy to forget just how great the injury-prone Gagne used to be - a simpler time, back in the early '00s, when Britney Spears was hot. Can Gagne come back? Maybe. Anything's possible. Britney could grow her hair back (Apparently the carpet really does match the drapes now - just had to be the first to make that joke). Anyway, moving to the AL doesn't help Gagne's case, though, and neither does playing in Arlington. Could be a disaster. Texas would be prudent to hold onto Otsuka - who's not happy, as you'd expect - and he'll get chances when/if Gagne goes down or needs a break. Both guys have potential, which puts them both somewhere around the middle of the pack among the league's top 30 or so closers.

TORONTO
Lefty B.J. Ryan is an elite stopper, a lock to be among the top five closers drafted. He makes a lot of multiple-inning saves, which doesn't help matters when you're trying to squeeze a full season out of him, but Ryan is one of those rare guys capable of 100 Ks and 40 saves. You can build around him.