Friday, December 28, 2007

2007 Awards

Before we close the book on the 2007 fantasy season, it's time to look back at the season that was.

It was kind of a bad year for running backs, a good year for most of the Patriots, and a so-so year for my teams. In the interest of full disclosure, I have two leagues that I consider my main leagues, and I finished in third in one 12-team league (losing in the first round of the playoffs and winning the consolation game) and I missed the playoffs in my other league (two divisions of 10 teams) by a game. Not quite what I hoped for, but not a total disaster.

Anyway, time to hand out the hardware:
MVP AWARD
Someday you'll be telling your grandkids about what Tom Brady did this season. They'll probably ignore you though. Brats.

BUST OF THE YEAR AWARD
Shaun Alexander could finish with fewer fantasy points than Ronnie Brown (out since Week 8), Larry Johnson (out since Week 9) and Maurice Morris (Alexander's backup). That's disgraceful for a guy who's played in 12 games so far and was considered a top-10 running back in the preseason.

2007 ALL-FANTASY TEAM
QB: Tom Brady
RB1: LaDainian Tomlinson
RB2: Brian Westbrook
WR1: Randy Moss
WR2: Terrell Owens
TE: Jason Witten
Defense: San Diego Chargers
Kicker: Mason Crosby

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Adrian Peterson, who else?

SOPHOMORE SLUMP AWARD
Maurice Jones-Drew gets the dishonor only because his nine total TDs so far are well short of last season's 15. That wasn't a reasonable expectation, though.

FUTURE FANTASY STUD AWARD
RB Darren McFadden, New England Patriots?

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Moss caught 11 touchdowns in his two years in Oakland. He's got 21 so far with the New England Patriots. It's amazing what a change of scenery can do.

BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMER AWARD
QBs Derek Anderson and Tony Romo share the prize for making themselves legit fantasy threats.

BEST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I tabbed Brandon Marshall and Santonio Holmes as sleepers, and I knew Peterson would be good (but not this good).

WORST PREDICTIONS BY YOURS TRULY
I believed Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones could make meaningful contributions each week. Oops.

RISING STOCK
Braylon Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant, David Garrard.

FALLING STOCK
Vince Young, Rudi Johnson, Eli Manning, Larry Johnson, Laurence Maroney.

ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD
In Week 4, Oakland Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper had one of the freakiest fantasy stat lines I can recall in recent years: 5 for 12, 75 yards, two TDs passing, three TDs rushing to lead all scorers. Other than that, he was either average or injured the rest of the time.

SUPER EARLY TOP 10 FOR 2008
1. Tomlinson
2. Westbrook
3. Peterson
4. Joseph Addai
5. Brady
6. Steven Jackson
7. Peyton Manning
8. Frank Gore
9. Moss
10. Romo

Photos by The Associated Press

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 17

If your fantasy team is playing for a title this weekend, I commend you.

The select few who’ve made it this far (and whose leagues have a rare Week 17 championship) deserve praise from guys like me, who are watching from the sidelines and cursing ourselves for drafting Arnaz Battle over Wes Welker.

If you're looking to fill a roster spot because of season-ending injuries or guys resting for the playoffs, there's help available, especially at RB. Here's who to look at:

There's a decent chance Kenny Watson was scooped up a while ago in your league, but if not, grab him immediately and start him against the Dolphins. Rudi Johnson's iffy, the Dolphins are bad and Watson's pretty good. Should be an interesting tailback situation for the Bengals next year. FIVE STARS (Out of five)

T.J. Duckett almost equaled his season output in one game last week against the Chiefs with 102 yards and a TD. The big battering ram will get most of the touches with Kevin Jones out with a torn ACL, and he has a chance to be productive against a Packers defense that has nothing to play for. FOUR STARS

Musa Smith should get a bunch of work at RB for the Ravens with Willis McGahee done and Mike Anderson recovering from a strained quad. He does face the Steelers, however, which knocks him down a peg from the other RB options out there. THREE STARS

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 16

It's kind of slim pickings this week on the waiver wire in most leagues. But if you're scraping the bottom of the barrel for a spot starter, take a quick look at these guys:

• Oakland Raiders RB Justin Fargas’ storybook season came to an end with an MCL sprain last week, which means LaMont Jordan and/or Dominic Rhodes will take over by default. Maybe one of them will step up against the Jaguars, probably Rhodes, but only go there if you’re desperate. THREE STARS (OUT OF FIVE)

Jeremy Shockey’s season is over, too, because of a broken leg. The New York Giants will turn to rookies Kevin Boss (who caught a 19-yard TD in Week 15) and Michael Matthews at tight end, but neither guy can really be counted on. I’d be more excited about the opportunity this opens up for WR Sinorice Moss, who’s talented but still figuring out this whole NFL thing. Might be worth a look in very deep leagues or keeper leagues. Boss - TWO STARS; Moss - THREE STARS

• Chargers third-string RB Darren Sproles ran for over 100 yards when LaDainian Tomlinson was rested in the second half last week and backup Michael Turner was hurt. There's a decent chance Sproles (Or Turner, if healthy) could see lots of action if the Chargers rest Tomlinson this week against Denver or in Week 17 against the Raiders, if your season lasts that long. THREE STARS

Shaun Hill wasn't terrible in his first NFL start for the 49ers (one passing TD, one rushing TD). He might be able to do something against the Bucs, who haven't won in San Francisco since 1980 and have already clinched the NFC South. TWO STARS

Star backs back?

Anybody who's still alive in the playoffs and in need of some help at RB could get an unexpected boost from two stars who've been on the shelf.

• Sounds like there’s a chance Larry Johnson (foot) is practicing and could return to the field against the Detroit Lions, according to the Topeka Capital-Journal. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but a relatively healthy LJ would have more upside than fringe guys like Ladell Betts or Julius Jones. There’s a good chance some frustrated owner cut him, too, if your league allowed it, so see if you can pick him up.

• There’s a possibility Reggie Bush (knee) could be back in action too this week against the Philadelphia Eagles, the AP reports. ESPN said Bush was going to be out for the year a couple weeks ago, but by now you hopefully know to take anything they say with a grain of salt. Anyway, if Bush can go Sunday he wouldn’t be a bad flex play. If not, RB Aaron Stecker (195 rushing yards, two TDs in his past two games) and WR David Patten (193 receiving yards, two TDs in his past two games) should continue to benefit from Bush’s absence.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Are you effing kidding me?

This new segment is dedicated to anybody who lost a playoff matchup in Week 15. I feel your pain.

• Tony Romo had a 22.2 QB rating? Are you effing kidding me? No TDs, three INTs, 13-for-36? What was that? Think he might have had something else on his mind?


• People actually wear pink Cowboys jerseys? Are you effing kidding me?

• Terrell Owens has five catches for 58 yards and no TDs in his past two games? Are you effing kidding me?

• Zero TDs for Tom Brady? THE Tom Brady? Are you effing kidding me?

• Jamal Lewis ran for 163 yards in the snow? The same three-inches-and-a-cloud-of-dust Jamal Lewis from last year? Are you effing kidding me?

• Brian Westbrook ... are you effing kidding me?



• LaDainian Tomlinson ran for 116 yards and two TDs, all in the first half? Are you effing kidding me?

• Cleo Lemon was tied with Drew Brees for most passing yards in Week 15? Are you effing kidding me?

• The Dolphins won a game? Are you effing kidding me?

• David Garrard threw three TDs against the No. 1-ranked Pittsburgh Steelers defense? Are you effing kidding me?

• Todd Collins still plays in the NFL? The former heir apparent to Jim Kelly? And his team won? Are you effing kidding me?

Friday, December 14, 2007

Snow problem



Sounds like they're calling for some nasty weather up in Foxborough this weekend for the Patriots-Jets game. That's probably got some of you a little concerned if you've ridden Tom Brady and Co. to the fantasy playoffs. Before you go and do something drastic, however, let's think about this.

Our friend Tom does have some experience playing in the snow, as you may recall from the picture above. Obviously the white stuff, if it does hit, will slow down the passing game a bit, and that's what the Patriots are built around this season. But I really don't think there's any way you can bench Brady, Randy Moss or probably even Wes Welker this week. Doesn't matter if there's three feet of snow on the ground, the Pats are going to try to embarrass the Jets after the whole spygate thing. Now, you want to bench Ben Watson? Donte' Stallworth? Jerricho Cotchery or Laveranues Coles of the Jets? I'm fine with that. But you'll probably never forgive yourself if Brady hooks up with Moss a couple times and you have them on your bench. I'm just sayin.

Photo courtesy of the Boston Globe.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Hot Pickups - Week 15

• Aaron Stecker's back on the hot list after a 100-yard game and Reggie Bush's knee injury. The Saints backup might find some room to run against the Cardinals. He wouldn't be a bad No. 3/flex back. FOUR STARS (Out of five)

• Jabar Gaffney's hot streak (TD in three straight games) is getting to be too much to ignore. You figure the Patriots will try to decimate the Jets this week, too, which works in Gaffney's favor. FOUR STARS

• Anthony Gonzalez has two 100-yard games in his past three and scored twice last Sunday. He's clearly benefitted from Marvin Harrison's absence, and that should continue again this week, although the Raiders' pass D isn't as much of a pushover as you might think. THREE STARS

• Jerheme Urban had one of those classic "Huh?" games last week (six catches, 123 yards, TD) when everybody was expecting Bryant Johnson to step up with starter Anquan Boldin out. Any chance of an encore? Sure, if Boldin's still out ... he is going against the Saints, after all. THREE STARS

• Like a moth to a flame, I keep getting drawn back to LaMont Jordan. I've been burned before, so the only way I'm touching him this week is if starter Justin Fargas (ribs) really can't go against the Colts. It'll probably be painful though. Be careful. TWO STARS

• Samkon Gado is an old fantasy friend of mine, so normally I'd have no problem recommending him, especially coming off last week's showing (93 total yards, two TDs) for the Texans. Only problem is Sammy now faces the Ravens, who may be falling apart but still know how to stop the run. TWO STARS

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Beware of the dud

I was going to do a Week 14 recap, but why live in the past? If you're reading this, odds are your fantasy team is in the playoffs this week, so I'll do everything I can to get you prepared.

The following guys are setting off my dud radar, and I’d give serious thought to benching them unless I’m really stuck:




Donovan McNabb is usually hurt around this time of year, so you can understand if he’s a little rusty against the Dallas Cowboys. It’s been a rough year for his Philadelphia Eagles.

Kurt Warner has produced since taking over as the Arizona Cardinals’ starter, but do you really trust him with your fantasy life? Sure, he threw three TDs last week, but he was also picked off five times.

• Kansas City Chiefs rookie Kolby Smith rushed 13 times for 12 yards against the Denver Broncos, who can’t stop anybody. What makes you think he’ll fare better against the Tennessee Titans?

Shaun Alexander’s been good for about 60 rushing yards a game this season. Start him if that’s what you’re into, but don’t expect anything special.

• I’ve seen enough touchdown-free games by Vince Young this year – six to be exact. Don’t let that happen to you this week. Start Cleo Lemon if you have to.

Laurence Maroney and Donte’ Stallworth look like afterthoughts in the New England Patriots’ juggernaut offense. They should be fantasy afterthoughts too, even though their team won’t hold any punches against the New York Jets.

• I enjoy Maurice Jones-Drew’s highlights as much as the next guy, but would a 30-yard, no-TD game shock you this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers?

• It’s been an awful season for Steve Smith and the Carolina Panthers. He hasn’t scored since Week 6. No reason to believe that'll change this week against Seattle.

• Sure, Jay Cutler's coming off a four-TD game. But he's also got three zero-TD games and six one-TD games this year.

Kevin Jones has put some great games on this year's stat sheet, but there are also 1-yard and minus-4-yard games sprinkled in there. Be careful using him this week against the Chargers.

Photo by The Associated Press.

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Let the schedule be your guide

NFL coaches are always yapping to their players about not looking past the next game on the schedule. That motivational tool may work for Scott Linehan and pals, but what about us fantasy players?

We’re at a crucial point in our season, with the fantasy playoffs just a week away in most cases. For us, there’s no excuse not to look ahead on the NFL schedule as you begin sizing up your team’s chances in the postseason.

Let’s examine some key players and their remaining opponents, beginning with the upcoming Week 14. Most of you will want to pay special attention to their matchups in Weeks 15 and 16, as those will be the playoffs for the majority of fantasy leagues.

Willis McGahee (Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, Pittsburgh): He’s coming off his best game of the season (138 yards, TD), which surprisingly came against the stout New England Patriots. McGahee has a chance to do some real damage against the Dolphins (league-high 149 rushing yards allowed a game) and Seahawks (third worst in rushing TDs allowed).



Justin Fargas (at Green Bay, Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, San Diego): Fargas helped a lot of folks out by emerging as the Oakland Raiders’ clear-cut starter in recent weeks. Be careful not to set your expectations too high, however, as he’s about to run the gauntlet against some challenging run-stoppers.

Derek Anderson (New York Jets, Buffalo, at Cincinnati, San Francisco): He’s been written off as a fluke more times than global warming, but Anderson has been every bit as good as Peyton Manning this year, and he’s not cooling off any time soon – not with the Cleveland Browns pushing for a playoff spot against some of the league’s worst passing defenses.

David Garrard (Carolina, at Pittsburgh, Oakland, at Houston): Garrard’s become a competent fantasy starter since winning the Jacksonville Jaguars’ starting job. He’s a risky play, however, against the Steelers and Raiders, who both rank in the league’s top five in fewest passing TDs allowed.

Marshawn Lynch (Miami, at Cleveland, New York Giants, at Philadelphia): It’s hurt not having Lynch available the past three weeks because of an ankle injury. The Buffalo Bills are aiming to ease him back this week against the soft Dolphins, though, and perhaps he’ll be back to 100 percent against the almost-as-soft Browns. And if for some reason he can’t go, backup Fred Jackson isn’t a bad option.

Thomas Jones (Cleveland, at New England, at Tennessee, Kansas City): It was really great seeing Jonesy score his first TD in 242 carries last week. He might even do it again this week. But the odds are against him when it really counts, against the tough Ravens and Patriots.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Week 13 recap - Pt. 2

BILLS 17, REDSKINS 16:



I don’t want this to sound too insensitive after the death of Sean Taylor and all, but what were the Redskins thinking, honestly? Ten men on defense for the first play (a 22-yard run by Buffalo’s Fred Jackson) ... then Joe Gibbs calling two timeouts in a row, giving the Bills extra yards on the game-winning field goal ... they really screwed this one up from beginning to end. But I guess you can’t really blame them. ... Jackson did some nice things (82 yards rushing, 69 receiving) in relief of Marshawn Lynch, and he’s not a bad speculative pickup if Lynch (ankle) can’t suit up again in Week 14. ... Clinton Portis limped off the field, and with the short work week, Ladell Betts might finally get some serious reps on Thursday against the Bears.

PATRIOTS 27, RAVENS 24: We pretty much know the Pats’ story by now. I want to focus on Baltimore for a moment. Willis McGahee ran with authority (138 yards, TD) in tribute to Taylor, his former teammate at The U. McGahee’s got some appealing matchups around fantasy playoff time too (more on that in my next blog post). And Kyle Boller is finally showing us some of what Baltimore originally saw in him years ago. Steve McNair is officially out for the year, so at least you don’t have to worry about him if you want to give Boller a shot.

PANTHERS 31, 49ERS 14: Argh, just when you think the Frank Gore situation’s headed in the right direction, he gets only 12 carries with the Niners digging themselves an early hole. He totaled 58 yards on the ground and nearly matched that in receiving yards (53). I don’t expect anything better against the Vikings this week, but he could get something done the following Saturday against Cincinnati. Maybe? Please?



CARDINALS 27, BROWNS 21: Kurt Warner managed two TD passes despite being without Larry Fitzgerald (groin) and losing Anquan Boldin (toe), possibly for the season. Warner improvised, throwing one to Bryant Johnson (a nice waiver wire guy this week against the Seahawks) and TE Leonard Pope (told you about him, didn’t I?). … Braylon Edwards’ amazing season rolls on. Plays like this one really make me glad I drafted him (as my third WR, no less!). Yeah, I rule.

RAIDERS 34, BRONCOS 20: Move over, Ty and Koy Detmer. Big wins Sunday for both Luke McCown (more in a moment) and brother Josh McCown. JaMarcus Russell may be the future in Oakland (and in keeper leagues), but Josh stole the day with three TD passes. Calm down though, it was only the Broncos. … Speaking of which, Denver’s Travis Henry (two TDs) is good to go for the rest of the year now that the suspension cloud has been lifted. We may not have much use for Selvin Young or Andre Hall from here on out, assuming Henry’s healthy

BUCS 27, SAINTS 23: The other McCown did some nice things (29 for 37, 313 yards, two TDs) in a spot start for Jeff Garcia. The Saints’ sorry pass D had a lot to do with that, of course, and so did Joey Galloway (seven catches, 159 yards), who always burns New Orleans. … Tampa Bay is optimistic Garcia will return this week against Houston, for those dying to get the old guy back in their lineup.

GIANTS 21, BEARS 16: Hope you enjoyed Derrick Ward’s 154 yards and a TD, because he’s now out for the year with a broken leg. There’s good news, though, if you were using him as a handcuff to starter Brandon Jacobs: Sounds like Jacobs (hamstring) will be back this week against Philly. … The Other Adrian Peterson passed his first test as the Bears’ starter (67 rushing yards, 82 receiving). I’ll be really sold if he duplicates it against the Redskins on Thursday.

STEELERS 24, BENGALS 10: There were probably a lot of ticked off fantasy players Monday morning because of Carson Palmer’s performance. The Bengals QB, who hasn’t exactly been lighting it up the way he should be, was held touchdownless. Granted, it was raining and the Steelers are good, but still, NO TDs?? We would have been better off starting Sage Rosenfels! Anyway, if you want to look on the bright side, take a look at Palmer’s upcoming opponents: Rams, Niners, Browns, Dolphins. Take special note of that third opponent: that’s the team he threw six TDs against earlier this year, and the rematch comes in what will be the fantasy Super Bowl in most leagues. Awesome!

Photos by The Associated Press.

Monday, December 03, 2007

Week 13 recap Pt. 1

RAMS 28, FALCONS 16: It appears Gus Frerotte has mastered the center-QB exchange. He helped make up for last week's boner by throwing three TDs. Unfortunately ol' Gus banged up his shoulder. If Marc Bulger is still feeling woozy in Week 14, third-stringer Brock Berlin (remember him?) be worth a shot against the Bengals. ... Steven Jackson turned a mediocre day into a very good one by breaking off a 50-yard TD scamper late in the game. ... Roddy White somehow managed 146 yards and a TD with the dynamic duo of Joey Harrington and Chris Redman throwing him the ball - not bad.



CHARGERS 24, CHIEFS 10: This is what we should have seen from San Diego all season: A hellacious defense (eight sacks, four turnovers) and LaDainian Tomlinson running wild (177 yards, two TDs). Nice to see them figuring out their formula for success as we enter playoff time (they meet the Titans, Lions, Broncos, and Raiders in the coming weeks). ... The Chiefs had no answer behind Damon Huard (and later someone named Tyler Thigpen) at QB. Tony Gonzalez still had his fourth 100-yard game, so you don't have to worry about him at least. And Kolby Smith was good (21 carries, 83 yards), not great in start No. 2.

COLTS 28, JAGUARS 25: Four TDs from our pal Peyton Manning. Impressive, especially with Marvin Harrison still out. ... Only 67 yards for Joe Addai, but you knew it was a tough assignment against the Jags' D. Still, Joey hasn't passed the century mark since Week 9 against the Pats. Odds are he won't run for 100 next week against the Ravens, either, but here's betting he does it the following week against Oakland, just in time for most fantasy playoff openers. ... Fred Taylor, on the other hand, had 114 yards, while running mate Maurice Jones-Drew scored four the fourth straight game. That's the kind of streak we like to see.

TITANS 28, TEXANS 20: Vince Young decided to throw some touchdowns this week. Still been a disappointing year for VY any way you slice it. But he does have good matchups with the Chiefs and Jets in Weeks 14 and 15 if that helps. ... This Matt Schaub dude just can't stay on the field. Sage Rosenfels had to relieve him again. Stay away from this duo. ... Don't stay away from Andre Johnson (nine catches, 116 yards, TD).



JETS 40, DOLPHINS 13: Somewhere, the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were gathered together around a plasma set with the champagne on ice. They all thought this would be the day Miami would get in the win column, preserving the Bucs' place in history as the last winless NFL team. But no, the Jets had to go and ruin those old guys' party. Maybe next week, fellas. ... Anyway, not much going on here fantasy-wise. One item of note: Thomas Jones finally scored a TD. Yeah!!

VIKINGS 42, LIONS 10: Guess Adrian Peterson feels OK (116 yards, two TDs), even with a knee brace on. Start him with confidence from here on out. ... Sidney Rice scored for the second straight week. Not I guy I'd count on in most leagues, but he's a young player to watch. ... Roy Williams left the game with a knee injury. Early reports say he's probably for Week 14 against Dallas.

SEAHAWKS 28, EAGLES 24: Shaun Alexander was back and looked alright (20 carries, 65 yards, TD). Only problem is Maurice Morris looked just as good (64 yards, TD) on one-fourth the carries. Alexander is still probably the smarter play from here on out if he's healthy, assuming the disparity in carries stays this way. ... A.J. Feeley wasn't very good (one TD, four INTs), but it didn't hurt Brian Westbrook (93 yards rushing, 46 receiving, TD) or Kevin Curtis (111 yards, TD), so that's a good sign if you own those guys.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Mr. Fix-It



Sorry, no Week 12 recap, I've been too busy the past two days doing my Bob Vila impersonation and redoing my bathroom. To make it up to you, I offer this help in repairing your broken fantasy team:

Is it just me, or is it getting harder and harder to find two able-bodied running backs to fill out your starting lineup on a weekly basis?

Think about it. In any given season you’re going to have a few season-ending injuries (see Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams), and you learn to accept it and move on. Sometimes we hardly even get a glimpse of the guy (Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams) before he flares out as quickly as he announced his comeback.

And then you have the nagging injuries that seem to sap your stars of their strength week after week and drive you crazy with all the “questionable” tags and the dreaded “game-time decision” kiss of death. Rudi Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Laurence Maroney, Travis Henry and LaMont Jordan have spent more time on the injury report than in the end zone – they’ve combined for nine TDs, or as many as Minnesota Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson has scored this year.

The latest running back to go down is the Chicago Bears’ Cedric Benson. OK, maybe he wasn’t Gayle Sayers, but at least Benson was a warm body you could insert into your lineup with a reasonable expectation of about 60 yards or so and a touchdown if you were lucky. The good news is with the underachieving Benson out of the way, the “other” Adrian Peterson has a chance to shine. Peterson should have little trouble eclipsing Benson’s mediocre numbers – he’s a more explosive back, he catches passes, and unlike Benson, his teammates and coaches like him. Grab him while you can.

Here’s an update on some other injury situations:

• The Denver Broncos backfield has always had a revolving door, but this year’s turnover has been especially high – emphasis on high thanks to Henry’s potential drug suspension, which could come at any day. Henry’s also been hampered by injury, and so have talented backups Selvin Young and Andre Hall. The bottom line is you must monitor Denver’s practice reports carefully this week – whoever’s healthy enough to play is in line for a big day against the wet paper towel known as the Oakland Raiders’ run defense.

• The New York Giants’ backfield has become almost as muddled thanks to another injury for stud Brandon Jacobs, who’s likely to sit again in Week 13. Reuben Droughns is Jacobs’ steady if unspectacular replacement, but he could be sharing carries this week with Derrick Ward, who’s also working his way back from injuries. If healthy, Ward is a better option against the Chicago Bears as he’s more apt to break off a big run or two.

• The chances of Larry Johnson returning from his foot injury are looking dim, but rookie replacement Kolby Smith (150 yards, two TDs for last week's Hot Pickup!) looked LJ-esque in his first career start. Keeping in mind that came against the Raiders, Smith still looks like a decent option going forward.

• It’s not all bad news when it comes to injured running backs. First-rounders Steven Jackson and Frank Gore have been hurting most of the year, but they’re showing sings of life as we approach the fantasy playoffs. Gore had 20 carries for the first time since Week 2, and he also had a career high 11 receptions for 98 yards. Jackson went for over 70 yards and a TD, and should've had another to win the game if not for Gus Frerotte's incompetence. Both RBs have some favorable matchups down the stretch, and their respective coaches are figuring out their workhorse backs are their best options if they want to retain their jobs in 2008. If you've put up with them all season, it looks like that decision is finally paying off.

Friday, November 23, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 12

D.J. Hackett entered the season as just a side dish in the Seahawks' receiving corps, but he's quickly becoming the main course. Since returning from a high ankle sprain, Hackett's caught a TD in three straight weeks. The past two games he's gone over 100 yards, with a career high 136 in Week 11 against the Bears. Be careful here, because Deion Branch is back too, and Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson will also snag some balls. But Seattle is all about airing it out, so Hackett should have plenty of opportunities, especially this week against the Rams. Pick him up if he's somehow out there. FIVE STARS (Out of five)

Kolby Smith, you're up. I mentioned the Louisville rookie a few weeks ago when I talked about Priest Holmes' return to the Chiefs' starting lineup. Well, it looks like that was short-lived as Priest retired after reinjuring his neck. With Larry Johnson still sidelined and staying mum about his injury status, the 5-11, 219-pound Smith will serve as K.C.'s feature tailback for the time being. Smith has some experience filling in for a starter as he did the same thing in college when Michael Bush broke his leg last year. It's hard to pinpoint what we can expect from the rook since he has only 10 NFL carries, all in the past two weeks, but he's worth grabbing if you need a spark at RB simply because he'll be getting a starter's share of touches against a poor Oakland run defense. FOUR STARS

Drew Carter is playing for a new contract in Carolina, so his five catches, 136 yards and a TD last week against Green Bay couldn't have come at a better time. It helped not having Steve Smith in the Panthers' lineup, of course, as Carter had been an otherwise minor part of the offense. Smith should be back this week, but it's possible Carter might get a few more looks in the next two weeks against the Saints and 49ers. For deep leagues only. TWO STARS

With Giants RB Brandon Jacobs dealing with a sore hamstring, it looks like Reuben Droughns and Derrick Ward will be seeing some more action this Sunday against the Vikings. Either of those guys is capable of some nice stats under normal circumstances, but two things worry me: the Minnesota run D is a brick wall (league-best 74.8 yards a game), and there's a chance Jacobs could force his way into the lineup and get some carries. There's also the possibility the Giants will just rely on the pass against the league's worst pass defense (talk about a schizophrenic team). I'll give both Droughns and Ward TWO STARS

I talked about Baltimore WR Devard Darling at length in last week's recap. Nice game against the Browns, but I see it as basically a fluke, and the upcoming schedule is brutal. ONE STAR

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Turkey day


Thanksgiving’s always been one of my favorite holidays, because it combines my three great loves: food, football and fantasy sports.

Oh, and family too. Sorry mom.

Fantasy makes the cut because unlike regular Sundays and Mondays, Thanksgiving allows us a day to totally focus our attention on two football games (three this year, if you’ve been blessed with the NFL Network). It’s just the right dosage of NFL action spread out over the course of the day, and although two of the three games this year aren’t as attractive as the schedule-makers hoped they’d be, just about every matchup features somebody fantasy players are keeping an eye on.

Here’s a look at the Turkey Day games from a fantasy perspective:

PACKERS AT LIONS

Green Bay has lived by the pass this year behind a rejuvenated Brett Favre and receivers Donald Driver, James Jones and home run threat Greg Jennings. Tight end Donald Lee is coming off a two-touchdown game and is a great roll-the-dice tight end option. The Packers’ passing game has great potential against a Detroit defense ranked in the NFL’s bottom three in passing yards a game and touchdowns allowed.

Packers running back Ryan Grant has exceeded expectations and was settling into his role as the feature back until hurting his ankle Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. He's been limited in practice but expects to play Thursday, so he's a decent No. 2 option, although Detroit's tougher against the run.

Assuming the Lions can keep him upright, QB Jon Kitna will spread the ball around to Roy Williams, Shaun McDonald and rookie Calvin Johnson, who finally caught another TD pass last week. Running back Kevin Jones hasn't looked so hot the past two weeks, rushing for -4 and 25 yards, and the Packers have given up only three rushing TDs all season, so he’s probably someone to avoid.

JETS AT COWBOYS

Use your New York skill players with caution. The receivers are inconsistent, veteran Laveranues Coles is hampered by an ankle injury, and Thomas Jones, though he managed 100 yards against the tough Pittsburgh Steelers last week, still hasn’t scored a touchdown as a Jet.

Dallas, on the other hand, is on fire. Tony Romo has two straight four-TD games and tossed five last Thanksgiving against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Expect him and favorite target Terrell Owens to be hamming it up for the CBS cameras often. Marion Barber and Julius Jones should get in on the action too against a Jets defense ranked dead last against the run.

COLTS AT FALCONS

Peyton Manning’s coming off two sub-par games, a rarity in his career. He can’t be that bad again, even if his line is thin, and old friend Marvin Harrison (knee) is likely to sit again. I'd expect to see a heavy dose of Joseph Addai in an attempt to get the offense back on track.

Byron Leftwich is out and Joey Harrington’s in as Atlanta’s starting QB, but you don’t want any part of that scene. Top receiver Roddy White is a better option, but he is coming off his first sub-50-yard game since Week 1. And Warrick Dunn is a risky proposition: the Colts haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Travis Henry in Week 4.

Picture courtesy of Norman Rockwell.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Week 11 recap - Part 2



EAGLES 17, DOLPHINS 7: Ah yes, looks like it's time for the annual Donovan McNabb Injury Scare. McNabb exited in the second half with an ankle injury, and although X-rays were negative, Philly's still worried about both the ankle and the thumb McNabb sprained earlier in the game. And as if that weren't enough, the Eagles meet the Patriots next week - which means you'll want to start thinking about alternatives at QB. A.J. Feeley is not exactly a good option. Neither is John Beck, the rookie who made his first start for the Fins, although he wasn't terrible and is a guy to keep in the back of your mind for next year.

CARDINALS 35, BENGALS 27: Almost everybody in this one had about the numbers you'd expect. Kurt Warner threw two TDs, as did Carson Palmer, including one to the recently reinstated Chris Henry. Palmer also threw four interceptions, however, which didn't really help matters. But the guy I really want to talk about is Rudi Johnson. How disappointing has RJ been this season? Eight carries, 25 yards from this guy ... He's got exactly one 100-yard game and no rushing TDs, and Kenny Watson is basically stealing his thunder week after week now. I understand he was hurt, but all indications are he's healthy now, yet we're still not getting anything out of him. Remember, this is a guy who's racked up over 4,200 yards in the past three seasons. Just reminds you how fleeting life as a stud RB can be.

PACKERS 31, PANTHERS 17: OK, ok, Brett Favre, we get it. You've still got a lot left in the tank. Take it easy guy, before you hurt yourself. Three TDs for the old man, including two to Donald Lee, the new Bubba Franks. Running back sensation Ryan Grant looked pretty good again (88 yards) but he had to leave the game with a "mild" ankle sprain. I'll update you before the Thanksgiving game. ... Steve Smith didn't play, so Drew Carter stepped up in his place (five catches, 132 yards, TD). Keep that in mind in Week 12 against the Saints if Smith can't go.

COLTS 13, CHIEFS 10: Not a whole lot to see here other than another rare mediocre day for Peyton Manning (16 for 32, 163 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT). Think he's missing Marvin Harrison? Sure, we all are. But it also doesn't help he's playing behind the JV offensive line. I can't see this continuing for long, not with the Falcons up next on Turkey Day. At the very least, this should be sorted out by do-or-die time in Weeks 14 and 15 against Oakland and Houston, so you've got that to look forward to.



JETS 19, STEELERS 16 (OT): Woah, didn't see this coming. Try to figure this one out: Thomas Jones, a fairly big disappointment this year, goes for over 100 yards against the Steelers' D, ranked No. 1 in the league against the run. They haven't let up 100 to an RB in 35 games. Jones had only done it two times this season. (He still hasn't scored a TD as a Jet, but we'll take what we can get.) Oh and his counterpart, Fast Willie Parker, runs for only 52 against the league's worst run D. You try to figure it out, it makes my head hurt sometimes.

RAMS 13, 49ERS 9: Weird, a defensive struggle for two teams that have seemed hell-bent on not playing defense at times this season. Steven Jackson at least tried to help us out with a respectable game (23 carries, 92 yards). Frank Gore (15 carries, 32 yards) not so much. It's looking like a lost season for Frankie.

SEAHAWKS 30, BEARS 23: The Seattle passing game is really clicking now, and you can thank Matt Hasselbeck (337 yards, two TDs) and D.J. Hackett (nine catches, 136 yards, TD) for that. Shaun Alexander didn't suit up, but I don't think many fantasy players shed a tear. In fact, Maurice Morris (18 carries, 87 yards, TD) looked just fine in his place. Cedric Benson (11 carries, 89 yards, TD) looked fine too, for a change, although I could have gone without seeing Adrian Peterson getting the ball on the 5-yard line for his first score of the season.

Photos by The Associated Press.

Week 11 recap - Pt. 1

PATRIOTS 56, BILLS 10: Is anybody really surprised by this at this point in the season? The Pats are pretty much unstoppable. Witness Tom Brady's five TDs, four to Randy Moss ... they didn't even need to run the ball much, although Laurence Maroney scored his first TD of the season. Amazing. And you were probably smart enough to sit your Bills, especially with Marshawn Lynch out. Right?

COWBOYS 28, REDSKINS 23: Speaking of amazing QB-WR connections, Tony Romo hit Terrell Owens for all four of the Boys' scores. In one league I actually played against a dude who had both Romo and Owens in his lineup. Yeah, it hurt as much as you imagine. I did have Owens in another league, so that helped soften the blow. ... Santana Moss (nine catches, 121 yards, TD) and Chris Cooley (eight catches, 89 yards, TD) put together nice games for the Skins. The RBs on both sides aren't worth mentioning.

VIKINGS 29, RAIDERS 22: Hope you took my advice and started Chester Taylor. Three TDs and 169 yards for the guy ... think he's been secretly seething about this whole Adrian Peterson thing this season? No word on Peterson's status right now, so Taylor looks like a decent start against the Giants next week, though he probably won't have quite as much room to run.

GIANTS 16, LIONS 10: Nobody really had a standout game in this one, outside of Roy Williams and Shaun McDonald, who each topped 100 receiving yards. Calvin Johnson did hit the end zone (first time since Week 7, for those keeping track), but he's still only getting his average three catches and 40 yards a game or so - not quite the fantasy impact some (not me) predicted. Another guy who should be having a huge fantasy impact, Plaxico Burress, isn't right now. This ankle ailment that's been keeping him from practicing is starting to affect him on game days - no TDs in his past four games now after eight through Week 6. You might have to consider benching him next week against Minnesota if you have other options. ... Brandon Jacobs ran for only 54 yards but surprisingly got involved in the passing game (four catches, 49 yards, TD). The bad news is he left the game with an apparent hamstring injury. Keep an eye on it.

BROWNS 33, RAVENS 30 (OT): Question: Who is Devard Darling, and how did he manage 107 yards and a TD in this game? Answer: He's a little-used, fourth-year receiver, and he was playing the Browns. Don't go running to the waiver wire for this guy, especially with an extremely tough upcoming schedule on his plate (at San Diego, New England, Indy in the next three weeks). It had to be a little disheartening for those who started Derrick Mason, who seems allergic to 100-yard games and TDs. ... No TDs for Derek Anderson or his receiving corps, either, but I expect that to change next week against Houston. And I can't go without mentioning Phil Dawson's game-tying field goal, one of the strangest I've ever seen. It even had the announcers a bit confused.



TEXANS 20, SAINTS 10: Welcome back, Andre Johnson! The Houston receiver couldn't return to the lineup soon enough, rewarding patient owners with 120 yards and a score. He's now got 382 yards and four TDs in three games played this season. If you had been skittish, rest assured it's safe to start Johnson next week against the Browns. In fact, I encourage it. ... Drew Brees threw for 290 yards and one TD, but it went to the enigmatic Devery Henderson, his only catch of the game. Henderson's still too inconsistent to count on.

JAGUARS 24, CHARGERS 17: Welcome back, David Garrard! OK, maybe he's not as fantasy relevant as Johnson, but he did look in control of this offense and threw two touchdowns. I'd start him next week against the reeling Bills if I was really in a pitch. ... One guy who IS fantasy relevant: LaDainian Tomlinson. He had a vintage game, with 155 total yards and a TD. He almost threw for another one, too, but got taken down on a fourth-down try. Questionable call, but we've seen it work plenty of times.

BUCS 31, FALCONS 7: I don't know if the Bucs defense is this good, or the Falcons offense is this bad. Probably a little of both. This whole Byron Leftwich/Joey Harrington QB controversy doesn't really get my blood pumping. Now Atlanta's got a short week to prepare for the Colts on Thanksgiving night (only on the NFL Network, call your local cable provider!) - I'm staying away. As for the Bucs' O, Joey Galloway caught another of his long trademark TDs (44 yards), and Earnest Graham looked comfortable again as the feature back with his second straight 100-yard game with a score. Michael Pittman is back from his ankle injury, and he did get 10 carries to Graham's 17. That seems like the kind of mix we'll see down the stretch, at least ideally, for the Bucs, which mean Graham has more value.

Photos by The Associated Press

Friday, November 16, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 11

• Chester Taylor, welcome back to fantasy relevance. The Minnesota Vikings' veteran RB was a 1,000-yard rusher last year in his first season as a full-time starter, but he's been just a tad outshined by a certain rookie you may have heard of. The good news for Taylor is twofold: Adrian Peterson is out this week (perhaps longer) with a knee injury, and Taylor gets to face a subpar Raiders D this week. Yum. FIVE STARS (Out of five)

• Seems like fantasy nerds have been talking about Selvin Young all season long, but the Broncos rookie RB just busted out his first TD and 100-yard game in Week 10. Starter Travis Henry is suffering from an ailing knee and, more importantly, has a possible drug suspension looming. Better get Young if you still can. FIVE STARS

• Brodie Croyle gets his first start in an attempt to give the Chiefs "a spark." Not sure how that's gonna work out, but young Brodie does have a couple things going for him this week against the Colts: he's got emerging star Dwayne Bowe to throw to, and he won't have to worry about QB killer Dwight Freeney, who's out for the year. Croyle's really only an option in deep leagues, but he will probably hold down the starting job for the rest of the year, so he gets TWO STARS. His wife, meanwhile, gets FIVE STARS

• Anytime a little-known TE catches two TDs in a game, you have to take notice. That's the case with Leonard Pope of the Arizona Cardinals. Pope's only averaged about a catch a game in his two years in the NFL, but caught five last week, two for scores, against the Lions. It's hard to expect that kind of performance again from the big dude, but hey, if you're looking to shake your roster up this week and catch lightning in a bottle, you could do worse than this guy, especially since he faces the Bengals. TWO STARS

• You know the story with Rex Grossman at this point: he's usually good for a few bombs and a few boneheaded plays a game, and it all depends on the ratio on a given week. He's about as extreme as it gets when it comes to rolling the dice, so be warned if you're thinking about using him this week against the Seahawks. TWO STARS

• Apparently Ricky Williams has cleared his mind or found his inner self or something, because he's been reinstated by the NFL and wants to get back on the field. The real shocker is the Dolphins are willing to give him a roster spot after coach Cam Cameron met with him in person Thursday and figured he's got nothing left to lose (except all the rest of his team's games). It's anybody's guess as to whether or not Williams will even see the field, let alone be even half as effective as he once was. Jesse Chatman owners have to be a little bummed too by this development, but don't get discouraged yet. Until we see something out of him, it's hard to get too high (pun intended) on Ricky as a fantasy player. ONE STAR



Photo courtesy of Thesmokinggun.com.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Week 10 recap - Pt. 2

CHARGERS 23, COLTS 21: Doesn't get much more bizzare than this. SIX picks for Peyton Manning? Adam Vinatieri misses an easy 29-yarder with the game on the line? A punt return and a kickoff return for TDs for Darren Sproles? That's six defensive/special teams TDs for the Bolts in the past five weeks if you're keeping track. Another awful game for Philip Rivers (104 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs)? Twenty-two carries, 56 yards for Joseph Addai? Almost everything was out of whack. At least Reggie Wayne (140 yards, TD) and LaDainian Tomlinson (76 yards, TD) tried to restore some order. I wouldn't ready too much into the Colts' struggles - in fact I'd be pretty excited if I had Peyton Manning, since he's probably going to light up the Chiefs in Week 11. Oh, and you've got to keep starting the Chargers defense obviously.



COWBOYS 31, GIANTS 20: Well it looks like Dallas controls the NFC East ... Tony Romo couldn't stop smirking, and rightfully so after tossing four TDs, two to Terrell Owens. The role players also got involved (TDs for Patrick Crayton, Reuben Droughns and our old friend Tony Curtis). Jeremy Shockey had a career day for the Giants (12 catches, 129 yards, TD) - that's Antonio Gates territory right there. Eli Manning did a lot of smirking of his own during his one-TD, two-INT performance, but not a happy smirk, that smirk he does when he and the Giants are shooting themselves in the foot in a big game.

BENGALS 21, RAVENS 7: If you thought Carson Palmer threw three TDs in this one, think again: All 21 Cincy points came on Shayne Graham field goals. Oh, and I had him on my bench. On a positive note, we learned that there can be enough balls to go around for bad boy Chris Henry (four catches for 99 yards) in this offense ... We also learned that Steve McNair's days as an effective NFL starter (129 yards, two fumbles, INT, benched for Kyle Boller) are basically finished.

CARDINALS 31, LIONS 21: Detroit had -14 rushing yards. Think about that for a second. Kevin Jones still managed a TD to avoid a complete disaster. Jon Kitna hit Roy Williams for two scores, including one in garbage time (there's no such thing in fantasy). Larry Fitzgerald also caught a pair of TDs, as did Cards TE Leonard Pope. Is Pope now a viable fantasy tight end? Well he's got the skills, but he had never been targeted this much before (five catches, 52 yards) - he had only nine catches in the previous eight games. But hey, he's worth grabbing as a backup, especially with Cincinnati, San Francisco and Cleveland up next on the schedule.

BEARS 17, RAIDERS 6: Ugh, do I really have to talk about this one? I guess not, it's my blog after all. You can go here to read all about it.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Week 10 recap - Pt. 1

RAMS 37, SAINTS 29: Rams win! Rams win! This is more like what we expected from this offense all season. It helped having Steven Jackson (76 yards, TD) at something close to full strength, and he even got a bonus passing TD on a trick play to Randy McMichael. It looks safe to use Jackson in the coming weeks, he has some good matchups (at San Fran, Seattle, Atlanta, at Cincy), and you can start to collect some returns on your first-round draft pick. Marc Bulger finally had time to throw (27-for-33, 302 yards), and he spread the ball around well. Drew Brees was still able to put up some numbers, but hot pickup David Patten (3 catches, 37 yards) was a bust. Reggie Bush scored for the second straight week.

EAGLES 33, REDSKINS 25: Just when you're ready to count out Donovan McNabb, he busts out a four-TD game. What do these Philly fans want, a return to the Bobby Hoying days? Brian Westbrook caught two of those scores, and he also got a gimme TD run in the fourth quarter when the Skins let him into the end zone in an effort to get the ball back. Boy, that's gotta stick in your craw if you were playing against Westbrook. Jason Campbell threw three TDs, but they went to two guys who nobody started: Keenan McCardell (1) and former Eagle James Thrash (2). Clinton Portis aka Choo-Choo is back to his alter egos and more importantly back to 100-yard rushing games. Ladell Betts (one carry, five yards) is still MIA.



PACKERS 34, VIKINGS 0: I want to give a special shout out to the Vikings offense for this pathetic performance. I was playing in one league against a guy who started the Green Bay defense, and instead of kicking a 47-yard FG at the end of the game to erase the shutout, Minnesota opted to go for it on 4th-and-7 and, you guessed it, didn't make it. That gave my opponent 10 bonus points for the shutout. Great job, Brooks Bollinger! Of course it didn't hurt that Adrian Peterson took a shot to the knee and had to leave the game with only 45 rushing yards. If he's got to miss any time, Chester Taylor might finally have some value. Taylor had a couple good runs and also had 50 yards on a catch-and-run. And on the Packers side, I whiffed again on my projection for Ryan Grant, who somehow managed 119 yards and a TD against a brick-wall Vikings run D. Brett Favre threw three TDs, one to Donald Lee and two more to Ruvell Martin, who else?

STEELERS 31, BROWNS 28: This one was all about the QBs. Derek Anderson continued to defy the skeptics with three touchdown tosses and had the Browns in position for a game-tying FG as time expired. Ben Roethlisberger (told you to start him) threw two TDs of his own and ran one in. Willie Parker had his sixth 100-yard game. Braylon Edwards caught only one ball, but it was a great one in the end zone.

BRONCOS 27, CHIEFS 11: Travis Henry was a game-time scratch, so rookie Selvin Young stepped in with great results, notching his first 100-yard game and first TD. He's for real. Priest Holmes didn't have a terrible game in his first start in about two years (20 carries, 65 yards), as long as your expectations weren't sky-high. The Chiefs' QB situation is a mess, but WR Dwayne Bowe still picked up 100 yards.

FALCONS 20, PANTHERS 13: Warrick Dunn (85 yards, TD) is still alive). So is Alge Crumpler (30-yard TD catch), who had missed the past two games. Steve Smith was mediocre (five catches, 61 yards) like I warned. So was DeShaun Foster (20 carries, 59 yards), which I didn't expect.

JAGUARS 28, TITANS 13: Tennessee gave up two rushing TDs, one to Maurice Jones-Drew and one to Fred Taylor, after allowing only three all year. Jones-Drew went over 100 yards too, which means my "sit" recommendation was way off. My bad. Vince Young decided to throw a TD pass this week, but he's still probably not startable.



BILLS 13, DOLPHINS 10: So close, but yet so far, Miami. The Fins actually led this barn-burner 3-2 late in the third quarter. It was pretty ugly all around as you can imagine, except for the RBs: Marshawn Lynch scored his sixth TD, and Jesse Chatman ran for 124 yards. J.P. Losman really let me down (12 for 23, 124 yards, no TDs, 1 INT), which of course meant Lee Evans' stats suffered. Thanks, fellas.

Photos by The Associated Press.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Week 10 start/sit

START

Cedric Benson's struggles got you down? He'll snap out of it this week against the Raiders, who lead the league in rush TDs allowed and just helped Ron Dayne (122 yards, TD) return to his Wisconsin days. If Cedric screws this one up, he and I aren't speaking again.

Ben Roethlisberger's coming off a five-TD game, so it wouldn't make much sense to have him on your bench this week. There's a decent chance he can duplicate it against the Bengals' wet-tissue defense.

Greg Jennings has to be in your lineup at this point. He only catches a few balls a game, but one is usually a TD bomb, a trend that should continue against Minnesota.

Kevin Jones' running has gotten steadily stronger as he's worked his way back from a foot injury. This week he faces the Cardinals, who let Earnest Graham bust loose for 124 yards last week.

LenDale White is shooting for his fourth straight 100-yard game, and the Jags' D ain't what it used to be.

SIT

Only four TDs for Maurice Jones-Drew so far, not counting last week's kickoff return of course. That means he's got 11 more to go to match last year's total. Chances are he won't add to it against the Titans (66 rushing yards a game, three TDs allowed all year).

Perhaps you remember Ryan Grant, hot pickup? Last week wasn't so bad (55 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards, 1 concussion), but now he faces the Vikings, who gobble up running backs.

No way I'm touching Philip Rivers after last week's atrocity (19 of 42, 197 yards, INT). He won't be that bad again, but he does face the Colts, who can be tough on QBs not named Tom Brady.

*Steve Smith is an interesting call, so he comes with an asterisk. He faces the Falcons, and you may recall what DeAngelo Williams did to him in their first meeting this year (one catch, 10 yards). You also may have noticed the Panthers are choosing between David Carr and Vinny Testaverde at QB this week. Smith is still a gamebreaker, but you may want to consider sitting him if you're really stacked at WR.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Talkin' baseball ... in November

I've totally neglected baseball on this blog for a while now, mostly because of the insane passion I and others have for all things football, and partly because my fantasy baseball team should have been put out of its misery somewhere around June. But with all the hot stove talk and the recent GM meetings in Orlando I thought I'd weigh in on a few of the rumored (and actual) offseason moves from a fantasy perspective.


I've always had this idea of the meetings being these top-secret negotiating sessions, where GMs and agents are having high level trade talks using sophisticated bargaining tactics in dark corners of the hotel bar at 3 in the morning. Then you realize most of the people involved are basically nerds and it's probably no different than when you or I are negotiating a deal in fantasy, which leads to exchanges that are probably something like this imagined conversation between the Yankees' Brian Cashman and agent Scott Shapiro:





Scott Shapiro:Hey Brian, what's up?
Brian Cashman: Not much Scott, just waiting for my luggage.
SS: Cool, man. How bout this weather down here, huh?
BC: Yeah. I see you're dressed for the occasion.
SS: Ha ha ha, yup. My wife bought this for me. You like it? I'm ready to get my party on. Hey so how about that A-Rod, huh? Is he a character or what? $350 million?! Wouldn't mind getting my 10 percent of that, ha ha ha.
BC: Yeah.
SS: So Brian, listen, I know we haven't really talked since the whole Carl Pavano thing went down ... I'm really sorry that didn't turn out the way we hoped. I hope there's no hard feelings between us bud ...
BC: Nope.
SS: ... because I know Carl really feels bad about everything that happened, but he's working really hard to get back in shape, and he really would like to pitch for the Yankees again somewhere down the road, honest he would. He really loves New York, and he's working extra hard this time ...
BC: It's OK Scott.
SS: OK great, because I'm just saying, Carl is really sorry he took all that money from you guys but he wants to make it up to you sometime, and so do I. And actually, I know this sounds crazy and I know you and George told me never to speak to you again but I see you guys are really hurting for pitching and I've got the perfect guy: Carlos Silva. We're only looking for five years, $70 million, I really think that'd be a bargain ...
BC: I think we'll pass, Scott.
SS: Really? Because this guy would be a perfect fit for the Yankees, he's ace material and he really, really wants to pitch in New York ..
BC: We're good.
SS: OK, but I'm just sayin, think about it bud. Hey I gotta run, they're doing karaoke down in the lounge, you wanna come?
BC: No thanks.
SS: Alright, well hey, you know where to reach me if you change your mind.
BC: Uh huh.


Alright enough of that, Let's start with Mr. Alex Rodriguez, the game's greatest player who apparently nobody wants. Maybe it has something to do with his outrageous demands and the Yankees' refusal to jump in the bidding war and drive up the price for that greedy little creep Scott Boras, but right now we have no idea where A-Rod will end up. Anaheim? Boston? San Francisco? Chicago? Or back in New York, with the Mets or even the Yankees? We'll have to wait and see .... personally I think the Yankees might get back into it after A) Boras finds out there's nobody else willing to come close to what he's asking for and he has to come crawling back to the Steinbrenners with hat in hand and B) they realize Wilson Betemit just isn't going to cut it next year at third base. But regardless of where he ends up, in fantasy, A-Rod is still A-Rod and should be the No. 1 player on your draft board. He's that good.


Sticking with the Yankees, seems like they're unwilling to deal their young pitchers (Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy), even if it means bringing back Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana. A move to New York would bring a spike to both those guys' fantasy value, even though they're already in the upper-echelon for their respective positions. Cabrera is the one guy who could come close to replicating A-Rod's monstrous 2007 numbers and would be in a tremendous everyday lineup, and Santana would have better offensive support and a chance to win 20 games. As for the young pitchers mentioned, I'd take a long look at each of them on draft day, because they've already shown glimpses of their potential and now get a chance to be full-time members of the Yankees' rotation.

There was one actual trade made at the mettings, and that was a five-player deal that involved Brad Lidge going to the Phillies. He's clearly going to be the Phils' closer next year, with Brett Myers moving back into the rotation. We all know the story on Lidge, he's got great stuff but the mental makeup is what you worry about, and a relocation and a fresh start can only help him get his mind right. His strikeout potential (88 in 67 innings last year) make him at least a second-tier closer to target next year, although we'll have to see how he responds after he gives up his first bomb in the Citizens Bank bandbox. Myers actually responded well to the job change, but he's needed more in the Phils' rotation. As for the Astros, the main commodity they got back was OF Michael Bourn, who up until now has been strictly a speed guy (.277, six RBIs, 18 steals in 119 at-bats last season) but should get a chance to play everyday and prove he can hit. He's somebody to watch.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 10

We already discussed Priest Holmes at length. I give him FOUR STARS (OUT OF FIVE). Backfield mate Kolby Smith gets TWO STARS until we see more of him.

Justin Fargas has stolen the Oakland Raiders' starting RB job from LaMont Jordan. He totally outplayed Jordan last week against the Houston Texans (104 yards on 23 carries, compared to just 10 yards on four carries for Jordan) and is a decent option against the Chicago Bears defense, which is still living off its reputation. FOUR STARS

The Detroit Lions defense is second only to the New England Patriots in fantasy points. You have to get them if the rest of your league is somehow asleep. Just don't expect one of these from Shaun Rogers every week, I don't think the big guy can handle another one:



FOUR STARS for the Lions D, FIVE STARS for the video.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Chris Henry is finished with his league-mandated time out and has been activated for Sunday's date with the Baltimore Ravens. Chad Johnson (strained neck) could be limited or even out this week, and the Ravens' D is coming off a Monday night shellacking against the Pittsburgh Steelers. THREE STARS

Seattle Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander looks like he’s caught that rapid-aging disease, so now is a good time to have Maurice Morris on your team. Ol' Mo doesn't have much upside, and the Seahawks are going to throw the ball a bunch, but you can at least expect 50 yards or so, maybe more against bad defenses, and a few TDs sprinkled in from Morris if Alexander is to miss any time. THREE STARS

Welcome back, Priest

Remember how you chuckled when you first heard Priest Holmes was going to try a comeback with the Kansas City Chiefs? Well wipe the smile off your face, because the former fantasy dynamo is back and has a chance to shine Sunday against the crumbling Denver Broncos with Larry Johnson nursing a bum foot.

First, a word on LJ's injury: those who had held onto him through his slow start were being rewarded with a two-TD effort Sunday, his third straight game with a score, before he ended up getting hurt and finishing the game on crutches. He's not officially been ruled out yet, but it sure doesn't look good, and Colorado TV station KDVR is reporting he's done for the season.

The Chiefs are already making contingency plans, as coach Herm Edwards has said Holmes and rookie Kolby Smith will share carries in Johnson's absence. We don't really know what to expect from either of these guys at this point - Holmes, 34, has just seven rushes since returning from his NFL hiatus, while Smith, a Louisville product, has zero this year. And the Chiefs offense has at times looked like it's stuck in quicksand this season, even with a healthy LJ in the backfield, so it'd be unfair to expect either of these guys to step in and give us Johnson's level of production.

OK, those are all the reasons NOT to add Holmes, but here's why you should. This is Preist Holmes, a guy who not long ago was single-handedly winning fantasy titles for his owners. This is a guy who's made a career of proving doubters wrong. We all thought he was delusional when he showed up at Chiefs camp this offseason after sitting out a year and a half recovering from a neck injury, but it's obvious he's got something left in the tank. Otherwise, the Chiefs wouldn't have A) allowed him to take up a roster spot this year and B) traded away Michael Bennett. They obviously feel he can at least give them something, and given his track record I'm convinced he can be a serviceable No. 2 or 3 running back, at the very least for this week against the league's worst rushing defense. If nothing else, just add him for old time's sake and hope to be surprised. Holmes is good at doing that.

Photo courtesy kcchiefs.com.

Sunday, November 04, 2007

Week 9 recap - Pt. 2



PATRIOTS 24: COLTS 20: Did this one live up to the hype? Yeah, I guess so. I don't feel any different, like it's been a life-changing experience or anything. But it was cool. Tom Brady still managed to pull three TDs out of his butt in a close battle, and the Pats' inevitable march into the history books continues. It took a Peyton Manning fourth-quarter fumble to seal the deal. ... Joseph Addai had an absolute whale of a game - 112 yards rushing, 114 yards receiving and a TD. Laurence Maroney, his counterpart and contemporary, had another disappointing day (59 yards), at least compared to what we were expecting out of him this season. On the other hand, you can't complain about the overachieving we've seen from Randy Moss and Wes Welker, who each added another TD catch to their 2007 stats.

COWBOYS 38, EAGLES 17: Isn't it weird how Terrell Owens played in his old stomping grounds in Philly, and we didn't really hear a peep about it in the national media this week? He did his best to get his share of the spotlight with 174 yards and a score as the 'Boys romped. They got pretty much everybody involved in the scoring action: Jason Witten, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, even star of stage and screen Tony Curtis all hit the end zone. And even in an awful offensive game for the Eagles, Brian Westbrook gave you your money's worth (155 total yards, TD). Always start him, I can't say it enough.

BROWNS 33, SEAHAWKS 30 (OT): Just when I was hyping up Derek Anderson and Cleveland's passing game, Jamal Lewis goes and busts out four TDs on the ground (and only 37 yards!). Our boy Derek did ring up 324 yards in the air, a bunch of those on his hook-ups with Kellen Winslow (125 yards). ... Seattle also did some aerial damage, with Matt Hasselbeck throwing for 318 and scores to Bobby Engram and D.J. Hackett. But that was because the Seahawks couldn't run - Shaun Alexander managed just 32 yards on 14 carries (an awful 2.3 average) before leaving with a knee injury. Alexander hasn't been right all year, and you almost want to say it might be best if he's done for the season now so you don't have to deal with starting him week after week and getting hardly anything in return. X-rays are pending, but start getting those Maurice Morris waiver claims in.

SAINTS 41, JAGUARS 24: I think it's safe to say the Saints are back. Hope you didn't give up on Drew Brees prematurely - all he did was zip his way to 445 yards and two TDs to Lance Moore and Hot Pickup David Patten. Good days for Reggie Bush (two TDs) and Marques Colston too (159 yards). ... And not a terrible game for Quinn Gray, at least fantasy-wise (354 yards, two TDs, three INTs), a huge bonus if you were desperate enough to start him. ... Forgettable performances by the Jags' RB tandem of Fred Taylor (54 yards) and Maurice Jones-Drew (28 yards). Unless of course your league allows individual return TDs to count, then you're thrilled about MJD's 100-yard scoring scamper on a kickoff.

REDSKINS 23, JETS 20 (OT): The Kellen Clemens era started well (23-for-42, 226 yards, one TD, zero INTs), except for the scoreboard. He's probably still not a good fantasy option, though, at least until Week 13 at Miami. ... Clinton Portis had the kind of game (196 yards, TD) you used to be afraid of every time you faced him. I guess we shouldn't spend too much time worrying about his durability for a while after this 36-carry effort. And even though Ladell Betts picked up 64 yards on nine carries, he's still bench fodder unless something unfortunate happens to Portis.

TEXANS 24, RAIDERS 17: If Brady and Manning played in "Super Bowl XLI 1/2," then just call this one "Super Bowl 1/2": Sage Rosenfels vs. Josh McCown, are you fired up yet?! I'm not even going there ... instead I'll talk about the running games. If you rolled the bye-week dice with either Justin Fargas (104 yards, TD) or Ron Dayne (122 yards, TD), you were handsomely rewarded. Ahman Green was hurting (eight carries, 28 yards) but scored a TD of his own. LaMont Jordan (four carries, 10 yards) is slipping into fantasy oblivion, and it's obvious he's not 100 percent.

Photos by The Associated Press.

Week 9 recap - Pt. 1

PACKERS 33, CHIEFS 22: Man, is that Brett Favre great or what? OK, he had a rough first half, but he got the job done (360 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), tossing both scores to Greg Jennings. The big headline here for K.C. is Larry Johnson's foot injury. No word on the severity yet, but it could be time to grab Priest Holmes, who scored on a 2-point conversion run. More on that when we get some more info. ... Packers RB Ryan Grant was serviceable in his starting debut (19 carries, 55 yards; four catches, 37 yards). It helps that he's involved in the passing game on days like this when they can't run. ... Tough break for Donald Driver owners (99 yards) in leagues that give bonus points for 100-yard games). Don't you hate when that happens?


VIKINGS 35, CHARGERS 17: Holy crap! I know you started Adrian Peterson, but if anybody out there was expecting this, I give you kudos. The kid set the single-game rushing record with 296 yards, beating Jamal Lewis' old mark by a yard. I think this just settled it, I'm probably already moving Peterson up to the No. 2 slot on my 2008 running back rankings, right behind LaDainian Tomlinson. ... Speaking of LT, he was all the offense the Bolts had (Antonio Cromartie also returned a missed FG 109 yards for the longest scoring play in league history). In one of my leagues I played against a guy who started Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and Chris Chambers and they combined for zero TDs. That made me smile. Pretty shocking performance against what had been a terrible pass defense.


BILLS 33, BENGALS 21: Lee Evans came up big as I had hoped (165 yards, TD), doing most of his damage in the first half. Then Marshawn Lynch led the way late, rushing for a score and throwing another one. He totaled 153 yards on the ground. I'd be looking forward to starting both those guys next week against Miami. ... More bad news for the Bungles: Chad Johnson had to be carted off the field after a hit. Sounds like a neck injury but nothing too serious. Still, it's not terrible news if you have T.J. Houshmandzadah, who scored again. Carson Palmer threw another one to Jeremi Johnson but Cincy couldn't do anything on the ground. Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson had just 11 yards apiece, although Watson salvaged a decent day with 90 receiving yards. I don't really know what to make of this offense right now, and I'd be a little nervous about next week's game at Baltimore.


LIONS 44, BRONCOS 7: Pretty awful showing here by Denver, and hard to explain. They did essentially nothing except a meaningless Brandon Stokley TD in the waning moments. They also lost Jay Cutler to a lower leg injury and Travis Henry to a knee injury. Henry says his isn't serious, but no word yet on Cutler's. What a mess. Patrick Ramsey ... But anyway, how about those Lions? Their scorers weren't exactly who you'd expect (Mike Furrey, Shaun McDonald, TJ Duckett and two defensive scores). But Jon Kitna's prediction is looking pretty good right now, though the remaining schedule is pretty daunting.


FALCONS 20, 49ERS 16: No Frank Gore in this one, but we can't say it was much of a surprise. Those who spot-started Maurice Hicks (49 yards, TD) or Michael Robinson (67 yards) at least got something to show for it. ... Warrick Dunn toughed out a big day (27 carries, 100 yards, TD). Still waiting for backfield mate Jerious Norwood to get involved, though - six carries for 39 yards (6.5 per carry, compared to Dunn's 3.7). They also gave the ball to fullback Ovie Mughelli down at the goal line for a TD. It's getting frustrating if you stashed Norwood on your bench and thought he'd be getting more work by now.

BUCS 17, CARDINALS 10: Not a whole lot of surprises in this game. Jeff Garcia was efficient (18 for 28, 196 yards, TD, no INTs). Kurt Warner wasn't (10 for 30, 172 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) against a decent D. Joey Galloway (84 yards, TD) is still a threat. Earnest Graham had a big day (124 yards, TD) but it helps that he got 34 carries as the Bucs held the ball for an amazing 43 minutes of possession. That also meant the Cards weren't running, which spelled doom for Edgerrin James (nine carries, 15 yards), although he did punch it into the end zone in the fourth quarter.

TITANS 20, PANTHERS 7: A pretty no-nonsense matchup here. The Titans are built on that time-tested philosophy of running the ball and stopping the run, and that's what they did here: Their guy, LenDale White rushed for 100 and a TD, while DeShaun Foster had a predictable 63-yard, no-TD effort, while DeAngelo Williams was basically a non-factor. That's LenDale's third straight C-note, for those counting at home. It's also Steve Smith's second straight game of fewer than 20 receiving yards. You have David Carr (15 for 27, 107 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) to thank for that. I actually thought Carr could succeed if pressed into duty this year - what was I thinking?

Saturday, November 03, 2007

Week 9 Start/sit

START

It’s been nothing but bad news for Travis Henry lately, but finally here’s something to get excited about: His drug suspension appeal hearing has been pushed back, he’s probable this week, and he’s playing the Lions. I see him and Denver having a big day on offense.

On defense, it’s a different story for the Broncos. The Lions’ Kevin Jones is in a groove (105 yards last week, four TDs in past five games), and Denver’s downtrodden run D won’t be able to stop him.

Can’t believe I’m saying this after how he looked at the start of the year, but Lee Evans is sizzling right now (236 yards, two TDs in his past two games) and could hook up with buddy JP Losman for a bomb or two against the Bengals.


SIT

I find it hard to justify starting a WR a week after he had zero catches, so I’d hesitate to play Vincent Jackson. Granted, the Chargers probably won’t have a lot of trouble passing on the Vikings, but you saw what happened last Sunday. Jackson’s fourth in the pecking order behind LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Chris Chambers.

Frank Gore has been a shell of his ’06 self, and when you factor in his gimpy ankle and his status as a game-time decision, you might want to look elsewhere, even though Atlanta is a pretty appetizing foe.

DeShaun Foster has been getting right around 60 yards a game lately, and although he scored last week, the Titans, owners of the NFL’s top-ranked rushing defense, haven’t allowed a TD on the ground since Reggie Bush scored twice in Week 3.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Derek Anderson, fantasy stud?

Do you believe in Derek Anderson?

That was the question posed to me, in so many words, by my buddy Sean-Dogg the other day when he called to ask me for some trade advice. He was looking to unload Tony Gonzalez (he also has Jason Witten) for a QB and had been separate offers of Eli Manning and Derek Anderson.

Now, we all know about Eli, the royal heir of the First Family of Football and so on. He screwed a lot of us last year (myself included) with some disappointing games, but he's made strides this year and isn't a bad fantasy contributor.

But what about Anderson? The dude was completely off the radar this year, and now he's only a top-3 QB and the biggest surprise of the season. His 17 TD passes are second only to one Mr. Tom Brady, and he has the Browns (yes, the Browns) in the playoff picture. He's also beaten out the now-departed Charlie Frye and held off All-American Boy Brady Quinn for half a season now. The question is, will it last?

My advice to the Dogg was simple: Pull the trigger. Gonzalez for Anderson makes a lot of sense. I think the kid's for real ... sure he can be a little scary at times, what with the eight INTs and all. He hasn't thrown a pick in the last two games, however (even though they were against the Rams and Dolphins, the dregs of the NFL), and he's also putting the ball in the air a lot, throwing it right about 30 times a game. And that's what I like about him, too: It's a pretty pass-heavy offense with two great targets (Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow), plus the defense isn't so hot, so there's lots of shootout potential every week.

The upcoming schedule is a bit daunting right now (Seattle-Pittsburgh-Baltimore), but as I've mentioned before, I see some appealing matchups in Weeks 14-16 (N.Y. Jets-Buffalo-Cincinnati), and that's what you've got to start looking for if you're already thinking fantasy playoffs. The Brownies may still be in the real playoff hunt then, too - all the more reason for Cleveland to keep Anderson at the helm and Quinn on the bench.

The guy's getting the job done, and for as much as people have knocked him when he first came onto the scene late last year, I don't see any reason he can't keep this up and be a viable NFL and fantasy starter. He's young enough (24), and he's got the size and the tools to succeed. Rather than putting all my eggs in the basket of someone like Kurt Warner, who's basically one sack away from retiring to run a youth ministry camp or something, I'd feel much better with Anderson in my lineup.