Sunday, June 29, 2008

The glass is half full for these guys

I've always been a glass-half-full kind of guy. I try to focus on the positive and find something good in a lousy situation. It's gotten me through more than one rough patch in my life, and it's also made my fantasy seasons a lot more bearable.

Trust me, I know a 162-game calendar sometimes seems to drag on for an eternity, especially when your team is languishing on the outer fringes of contention. You've probably got an All-Star or two on your roster who, whether because of injuries or bad luck or plain old incompetence, hasn't lived up to your expectations and has you seriously considering sending them some hate mail. But instead of obsessing over the 80 or so games in which that player's already failed to perform, try focusing on the untapped potential that rests in the 80 still to come.

Here are some first-half underachievers who should have brighter days and half-full glasses ahead:

• I am shocked - no, downright flabbergasted - by Miguel Cabrera's mediocre numbers to this point. I had him pegged as a top-three fantasy producer this year, and boy, has my face been red since the Detroit Tigers' tailspin began on Day One. Cabrera's stats aren't terrible - .276, 11 homers, 45 RBIs - but they aren't what anyone had in mind when they drafted him in the first round. Simply put, Cabrera's better than this, and though an MVP season is now out of the question, Cabrera still has the tools to raise that average 30 points and tack on at least 55-60 more RBIs, making me look just a little smarter in the process.

Gary Sheffield is another huge disappointment and a key factor in the Tigers' suckiness. Sheff has served up a paltry 16 RBIs and a .230 average to date, hardly the hearty meal we expected from the slugger. But a recent stint on the disabled list with an oblique strain might have done the trick, as Sheffield has already hit two home runs since returning to Detroit's lineup. Although he's more than a decade older than fellow Tiger Cabrera, Sheffield too is a professional hitter who still has some life in his bat and should contribute in the power department from here on out.

Robinson Cano was supposed to rival Chase Utley for second base supremacy, but instead he's more closely resembled Chevy Chase at the plate (.241, .279 on-base percentage).
Now, the good news: Cano hit.343 after the All-Star break last year with 13 homers and 57 RBIs. No reason he can't do that again, which would vault him to the upper tier of fantasy second basemen.

Carlos Pena was hitting just .227 before his recent finger injury, but his 11 home runs placed him among the American League leaders at the time he went down. Hurt hands are always a concern when it comes to players who swing for the fences, but the Tampa Bay Rays have held their own without Pena and given him ample time to heal. He's now back in the middle of a dangerous lineup, and I suspect the homers will flow freely once again.

Aaron Harang's 3-10 record is tough to swallow, especially for a guy who won 16 games each of the past two seasons. But I won't fault him too much for that - the Cincinnati Reds are scoring fewer than three runs a game when he pitches, and there were quite a few games this year he deserved to win but didn't. However, I do fault Harang for striking out almost one fewer batter per nine innings than he did last season and giving up many more fly balls - 17 of which have turned into home runs (he allowed 28 homers in each of the past two years). I have to believe Harang will return to his old formula for success in the coming months, and his luck in the wins and losses department will turn.

• Nothing's gone right for the Seattle Mariners this year, especially the signing of big-ticket free-agent Erik Bedard (4-4, 3.97 ERA). A balky back and hip have been issues this year, but so has the M's punchless offense. If he can get himself healthy and Seattle opts to trade Bedard to a contender, he could turn his season around in a hurry and revert to ace form.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

The Chase is on for Headley

Feel like your fantasy team needs a spark? Look no further than Padres super-prospect Chase Headley, recalled Tuesday from Triple-A Portland.

Headley, a third baseman-turned-outfielder, was hitting .305 with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs in 65 games for Portland. He was immediately inserted into San Diego's lineup, playing left field and going 2-for-4 with two strikeouts while batting sixth.

The switch-hitting, 23-year-old Headley has been compared to the Tampa Bay Rays' Evan Longoria in terms of offensive potential. He should at least be a dependable bat from here on out and is certainly worth a look in most mixed leagues (and definitely in NL-only leagues). There's also a chance he may see some time at third after Kevin Kouzmanoff experienced some back pain and was a late scratch from Tuesday's game. I suspect Headley will be scooped up in a good majority of leagues in the coming days, so now's the time to grab him if you're interested.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Coping with injured stars

Nothing can sink a fantasy team like an injured superstar or two.

Even marquee players aren't immune from getting hurt, and when they do, it can really put a crimp in your plans for title contention. In the past week or so we've seen Alfonso Soriano, Albert Pujols and David Ortiz suffer significant injuries, and those aren't the kind of guys who can easily be replaced, on a fantasy roster or in real life.

However, when one of your big guns becomes damaged goods, it doesn't have to be the end of the world. After all, man created the disabled list for a reason. Use it wisely - and then get back to dominating your league.

Here are some tips for coping with a banged-up starter:

IDENTIFY THE IMPACT

The loss of a star-caliber player is obviously going to hurt your team's output. But how exactly? Soriano, who could miss up to six weeks after fracturing a knuckle, was especially helping out his owners in homers (15) and RBIs (40). Ortiz, too, was all about the power numbers (13 homers, 43 RBIs) before hurting his wrist. Pujols, out with a strained calf, was lending a hand almost across the board offensively, other than in steals (two). Recognizing which categories an injured player was contributing to, and how badly you'll need to replace those stats, will help you formulate your next plan of attack.

TAKE IT CASE BY CASE


The team's official prognosis is often only some rough estimation of what's wrong based on similar injuries. When Rafael Furcal's back problem first cropped up in early May, he was supposed to return in a few short weeks - which now seem to be stretching into months. And when John Smoltz first felt something wrong with his shoulder, little did anyone know his career would be in jeopardy.

In Smoltz's case, even after he teased us with a quick rehab and comeback attempt, you should have been wary - given his advanced age, injury history and the fact he decided to switch back from a starter to a closer (again) - and at least tried to fortify your pitching staff. No two injuries are the same, so don't automatically assume a 15-day DL stint means only 15 days.

LISTEN FOR OPPORTUNITY KNOCKING


One man's injury is another's chance to shine, so be sure to monitor how your injured player's real-life ballclub reacts. It may be as simple as the St. Louis Cardinals giving more playing time at first base to homer-happy Chris Duncan or the Seattle Mariners handing closer duties over to Brandon Morrow while J.J. Putz's elbow heals, but you may not have to look very far for an adequate short-term replacement.

GO SHOPPING

Sometimes a fill-in isn't so easy to locate. That's why it's best to always have your eyes on a few players in your league's free-agent pool so you can be ready to pounce in case of emergency. And better yet, if you've already got a capable backup for an injured star like Ortiz or Soriano on your bench, use their injury as a chance to shore up another part of your lineup with the open roster spot. Some of the best waiver pickups I ever made came out of desperation after another star fell.

Friday, June 13, 2008

An open letter to Billy Wagner

I'd like to take this opportunity to send a special message to my pal Billy Wagner.

Dear Billy,

Sorry we haven't had much time to chat since I traded for you a couple weeks ago. It's been pretty hectic for me at work, and you've been busy blowing saves and whatnot.

I was pretty excited when I traded for you back on May 22, Billy. I was sorry to see Tim Hudson go, but I really needed saves, and you had been almost perfect up until then. That's why I didn't even break a sweat when you blew a save the day after I traded for you. I mean, you're Billy Wagner. You've got more than 300 freakin' career saves. Your entrance song is Enter Sandman, for gosh sakes.

Things were cool after that. You saved four games in a row, and everything was really great. But then, on June 8, you blew another one. And then another one. And then another one. That's three in a row, Bill. We can't have this. I need you. The Mets need you. It's almost as if you're trying to get Willie Randolph fired or something. As if you don't respect the guy or you're not on the same page or something.

Let's get it together, Bill. If I wanted blown saves I would have picked up Jason Isringhausen instead of you. I want to see that old Billy Wagner I used to know. He's still in there somewhere. Set him free, Bill. Set him free.

Sincerely,

Jason

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Is this the end for John Smoltz?

Terrible news for John Smoltz and his owners ... the 41-year-old Braves pitcher is having season-ending surgery.

It's been a whirlwind season for Smoltzie, who got off to a very hot start to the season before he experienced inflammation in his shoulder. After a stint on the DL, the talk was Smoltz would return to his former role as Atlanta's closer. But after a successful rehab, he blew a save in his first appearance back in the majors, woke up the next day with a sore shoulder, and now he's done for the year.

This is a big blow to anyone who built their rotation around Smoltz, but his owners likely already prepared themselves for the worst when he got hurt the first time. Those who have held onto Rafael Soriano throughout his own lengthy stay on the DL are now rewarded with a guy who could be one of the league's better closers from here on out. If he should falter, Manny Acosta and the soon-to-return Mike Gonzalez might get a shot, but for now, the job is Soriano's to lose.

As for Smoltz, is this the end? Smoltz doesn't think so, but we'll have to wait and see.

Photo by The Associated Press

Monday, June 02, 2008

A thank you to the Supreme Court

Apparently Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a fantasy baseball fan. Who knew?

OK, perhaps that's a stretch. But Ginsburg and her fellow Supreme Court justices on Monday refused to hear a case involving Major League Baseball and a company that operates a fantasy baseball site. It seems MLB was denying Missouri-based C.B.C. Distribution and its CDM Fantasy Sports site a license to feature players' names and statistics in their fantasy baseball games, arguing that using individual likenesses for profit was a violation of the players' privacy rights. Other courts have already ruled that enforcing state law would be a violation of C.B.C.'s First Amendment right to free speech.

So what does it all mean for us? In a nutshell, the fantasy world goes on as normal. If MLB and other pro sports leagues had their way, they'd hold power over all the sites that get to run fantasy operations. They have already been limiting their licensing agreements to a select few sites - ESPN, Yahoo, etc. - who are allowed to use players' names and likenesses, for a fee of course. If the courts ruled in its favor in this case, MLB might try to become the sole operator of fantasy sites, forcing all of us together under one umbrella on one site. Other sites would disappear without access to real-life players' names and their real-life stats, the two essential parts of fantasy baseball. But now, with the Supreme Court turning a deaf ear to this case, it's a huge victory that allows other sites appear to continue operating as normal. And we as fantasy players benefit by having more choices regarding which sites to use for our leagues.

The MLB's argument that it should have exclusive control of players' stats is bogus. Shouldn't any site have the right to say that Ryan Braun hit 34 homers last year? Isn't that public knowledge? MLB was arguing that stats are intellectual property, but that argument didn't seem to hold much water when you consider every newspaper and TV station in the country has been allowed to use those same stats in their products. And baseball's concerns about other companies profiting off their players is ludicrous. If anything, interest in fantasy baseball has helped drive up the record-breaking revenues MLB has enjoyed in recent years. As one fantasy baseball fan told the Associated Press, "I follow games I’d never have followed. I’ll flip on a Rangers-Mariners game that I would never have cared about before to see a Josh Hamilton at-bat. It draws me in a lot more.’’

I think we can all tell a similar story. And we can all thank the Supreme Court for protecting the game we love.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

Sunday, June 01, 2008

The Class of 2008


It's hard to believe Joba Chamberlain is technically a rookie. Seems like we've been debating the New York Yankee's future (starter or reliever?), his antics on the mound (youthful exuberance or bad sportsmanship?) and his place in pinstriped lore (great Yankee or greatest Yankee?) for years.

Despite the plethora of back-page headlines and sports talk radio rants devoted to him, it's easy to forget the guy hasn't yet pitched 50 big league innings and has only begun reaching his potential. Still, the mastery he's already shown as a setup man (2.28 ERA, 12 holds, more than a strikeout an inning) has been valuable in the fantasy game, and his stock only rises as the Yanks continue converting him into a starter.

Chamberlain's just one of many in the Class of 2008 who are already helping fantasy teams or who will be in the near future:

HERE TO STAY

Evan Longoria already looks like a polished pro and is a cornerstone of the surprising Tampa Bay Rays at third base. When he figures out how to hit lefties (.154 average) and cuts down on his strikeouts (44 Ks vs. 19 walks) he'll enter David Wright territory.

Joey Votto has the Cincinnati Reds' first base job all to himself now that Scott Hatteberg is out of the picture. And rightfully so - double-digit homers and an average around .300 are more than adequate from a corner infielder.

Reds center fielder Jay Bruce may have an even higher ceiling than Votto in the long run, as he showed in his debut last week (3-for-3, two RBIs, stolen base, two runs scored). There's a reason he's baseball's top prospect.

If you didn't know who Geovany Soto was at the start of the year, you do now that the Chicago Cubs rookie leads all major league catchers in RBIs.

Jacoby Ellsbury is well on his way to a 40-steal campaign, but the Boston Red Sox outfielder is holding his own at the plate, which justifies a starting fantasy spot.

MAKING CONTRIBUTIONS

St. Louis Cardinals reliever Chris Perez has been virtually unhittable since his call-up two weeks ago and has yet to allow a run. It's only a matter of time before the righty is closing out games, so keeper leaguers and Ryan Franklin/Jason Isringhausen owners take note.

Clayton Kershaw just turned 20 years old, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have already put him in their rotation, at least for the time being. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound lefty will experience some hiccups, but his reputation as a strikeout artist can't be overlooked.

Speaking of hiccups, Johnny Cueto's had a few lately for the Reds after setting the league on fire his first few starts. Relegate him to your bench for now, but don't give up on his long-term potential.

Injuries opened a spot for lefty Aaron Laffey in the Cleveland Indians' rotation, but effective pitching (1.59 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) is keeping him there.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have used righty Max Scherzer as both a starter and a reliever. Either way, he's getting batters out (29 Ks in 25 2/3 innings, 2.10 ERA).

Jair Jurrjens fills the Atlanta Braves' quota of Curacao natives now that Andruw Jones is gone, but he's also given them a more-than-capable (5-3, 2.86 ERA) starting pitcher.

Former Red Sox farmhand David Murphy is one of several Texas Rangers mashing the cover off the ball (.291, 21 RBIs in May).

COMING SOON

Rays lefty David Price, the top overall pick in last year's draft, recently outpitched Pedro Martinez when the New York Mets star was making a rehab start in a Single-A game. The polished Price could be on the fast track to a big league call-up by the end of the year.

Switch-hitting third baseman/outfielder Chase Headley is tearing up Triple-A pitching and could make a cameo any day now for the sinking San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers, plagued by injuries and a lack of offense, could soon turn to third base prospect Andy LaRoche (career .900 OPS in the minors) for some help

Photos by The Associated Press