The trade deadline has always been an interesting date on the Major League Baseball calendar. It's a mythical benchmark that separates contenders from pretenders, buyers from sellers, Red Sox from White Sox. And it comes at a crucial time in the fantasy season.
We're just beginning to get a good idea of whether or not our fantasy teams have a shot at a title this season, and by the July 31 deadline, our fates could be all but decided. The moves the real ballclubs make in the next week-and-a-half could have great impact on our futures, so you'll want to pay close attention to ESPN's Bottom Line (and this blog, of course).
Let's examine some of the biggest names who've popped up in trade rumors and how their possible relocations might affect their fantasy fortunes:
• Dontrelle Willis: He's not a free agent until 2009, but the pennywise Florida Marlins would like to get a huge bounty in return for Willis now in a pitching-starved market. The problem is Willis is mired in one of the worst slumps of his young career and hasn't won in his past nine starts.
There have been whispers of a mysterious forearm injury, and he's even been booed recently by the home fans (Wait, the Marlins have home fans?). A change of scenery would certainly help, assuming he's healthy, but I'm not sure Florida will throw in the towel now and deal him. D-Train owners might just have to gut it out.
• Mark Teixeira: Big Tex might be the hottest commodity on the market, meaning the Texas Rangers no doubt have a high asking price. Teixeira, a free agent next year, wants no part of a rebuilding effort in Arlington. The friendly confines of The Ballpark have always helped prop up his numbers a bit, however (career .308 hitter at home; .274 on the road), so a move to a contender might actually hurt a little.
• Eric Gagne: Gagne's unexpected renaissance in Texas (14 saves, 1.23 ERA, only two DL stints) has exceeded fantasy owners' expectations. It's also made him perhaps the most sought-after reliever as the trade deadline nears.
The catch is Gagne reportedly only wants to close, not set up, and he has a no-trade clause in his contract. His fantasy value is in large part tied to getting save opportunities as a closer, and the number of serious contenders who actually need a closer right now (Philadelphia Phillies? Chicago Cubs? Perhaps the Atlanta Braves?) isn't very high. If Gagne does relent and agrees to be a set-up man, his fantasy stock plummets, so you might want to consider trading him now.
• Ken Griffey Jr./Adam Dunn: It seems likely the cellar-dwelling Cincinnati Reds would want to move one of their high-priced, slugging outfielders. Dunn seems like the more likely candidate, since Griffey, a hometown boy, is a 10-and-5 player (10 years in the league, five with the same team) and has veto power over any trade. And while both players have put together nice seasons and should be coveted for their power, they'd be leaving behind Great American Ballpark, a hitter's paradise. A trade to any other team would almost certainly cost you quite a few home runs.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Friday, July 20, 2007
Barking up the wrong tree
If you've been counting down the days until the new Nike Air Zoom Vick V sneakers, I have some bad news ...
The delayed debut of Michael Vick's new kicks isn't the only bad news for the Falcons' star QB. Seems like he may be forced to sit out a few games (or more), either by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell or a U.S. District judge for his role in an alleged dogfighting ring.
The allegations against Vick are just more fuel for the fire surrounding one of the most polarizing figures in sports, especially when it comes to fantasy. The threat of a possible suspension (or jail time) make him an even bigger question mark than he already was entering 2007. He's always been a guy with huge upside and huge downside at the same time thanks to his uncanny ability to morph from Barry Sanders to Ryan Leaf on a week-to-week basis. The possible fallout from his reported involvement in this utterly disgusting pastime has to automatically knock him down quite a bit on your pre-draft rankings. I pity those who have extra-early drafts and have to make a quick assessment of Vick before he has his first day in court - which, as fate would have it, is the first day of Falcons camp.
The deck looks pretty stacked against Vick: the judge assigned to his case is notorious for handing out tough sentences, and the new commish hasn't been afraid to flex his muscles when it comes to straightening out the NFL's bad apples. I'm probably not touching Vick this year in any league, and I'm sure as heck not making him my QB1.
I also wonder if the Falcons are sorry they gave up former backup Matt Shaub this offseason after holding onto him so tightly for so long. New coach Bobby Petrino has promised to install a more explosive offense, but it will be interesting to see if he has to try to do so with Joey Harrington leading the way. (Trust me, Bob, you don't want to go there.)
There's also a larger issue we fantasy players have to consider here, and it involves Goodell. Suspending Vick seems like the kind of signature move he'd make to establish himself as the new sheriff in town. Vick is, after all, a lot bigger name than Pacman Jones or Tank Johnson, the face of the NFL even, and a suspension would send shockwaves throughout the league. Owners (both in real life and fantasy) might have to put a new emphasis on character when evaluating players - a scary thought for anybody who's ever had Ray Lewis or Ricky Williams or Chris Henry on their team. Just something to think about this season.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Young guys to add
SP/RP Yovani Gallardo, Brewers: He was impressive last month in a brief starting stint, then got shuffled into the bullpen, where he's excelled. Good thing the Brew Crew kept him around, now that Ben Sheets just got pulled from his last start with a blister on his finger. Gallardo seems like a logical replacement if Sheets has to miss a start or more.
OF/DH Billy Butler, Royals: The rookie's really turned it on this month (.407, two homers, eight RBIs). It helps that creaky Mike Sweeney's been out with a knee injury, meaning Butler has seen time as a DH and even been used in the cleanup slot recently.
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres: There were high hopes for this kid in this his rookie season, but only recently has he picked it up at the plate. After hovering around .200 for much of the year, he's hitting .385 in July, bringing his average up to a relatively better .237. Of course, playing home games in PETCO Park is not going to help his power potential - six of his nine homers have come on the road. He's on a 7-for-14 tear with five RBIs in his past five games, though, so this may be a sign of good things to come.
SP Chad Billingsley, Dodgers: Billingsley's been a solid addition to the Dodgers' starting rotation since Jason Schmidt went down. He's no strikeout artist, but he's made three straight quality starts and is 2-0 as a starter. He's also still getting used to higher pitch counts after spending the majority of the season in the bullpen.
SP Phil Hughes, Yankees: Name sound familiar? Of course it does, he's a Yankee ... but he's the real deal. The rookie's return to the majors was in doubt not too long ago after injuring his ankle while rehabbing a bad hammy. But he's pitching in Double-A now and is coming off an impressive showing in his latest rehab start (six Ks in three scoreless innings). They're saying he could be back by August, or even later this month given the Bombers' desperation as we get closer to October. Grab him immediately if he's out there.
OF/DH Billy Butler, Royals: The rookie's really turned it on this month (.407, two homers, eight RBIs). It helps that creaky Mike Sweeney's been out with a knee injury, meaning Butler has seen time as a DH and even been used in the cleanup slot recently.
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres: There were high hopes for this kid in this his rookie season, but only recently has he picked it up at the plate. After hovering around .200 for much of the year, he's hitting .385 in July, bringing his average up to a relatively better .237. Of course, playing home games in PETCO Park is not going to help his power potential - six of his nine homers have come on the road. He's on a 7-for-14 tear with five RBIs in his past five games, though, so this may be a sign of good things to come.
SP Chad Billingsley, Dodgers: Billingsley's been a solid addition to the Dodgers' starting rotation since Jason Schmidt went down. He's no strikeout artist, but he's made three straight quality starts and is 2-0 as a starter. He's also still getting used to higher pitch counts after spending the majority of the season in the bullpen.
SP Phil Hughes, Yankees: Name sound familiar? Of course it does, he's a Yankee ... but he's the real deal. The rookie's return to the majors was in doubt not too long ago after injuring his ankle while rehabbing a bad hammy. But he's pitching in Double-A now and is coming off an impressive showing in his latest rehab start (six Ks in three scoreless innings). They're saying he could be back by August, or even later this month given the Bombers' desperation as we get closer to October. Grab him immediately if he's out there.
Saturday, July 07, 2007
Unfair trades
Remember when the Mets traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano? Seemed pretty silly at the time, and Kaz was just a left-handed prospect hardly anyone had seen at the time. Seems sillier now, as Zambrano keeps teetering on the edge of obscurity. I was still living in Jersey at the time, and you should have heard the Mets fans on WFAN, New York's sports talk station. Shouts of "You gotta be kiddin' me!" filled the airwaves, and the "I think we got the wrong Zambrano" joke was made about once every hour on the hour. It was pretty entertaining stuff, especially for a Yankees fan.
In a roundabout way, that brings us to the topic of unfair trades in fantasy baseball. Much like the Kazmir-Zambrano deal, there are usually a handful of trade proposals that make everyone in the league chuckle. Just like we all knew the Mets weren't going anywhere at the time and were sacrificing a potential ace for an injury-prone, unremarkable innings eater, there's always a fantasy swap or two that everyone views as one-sided. It happened not long ago in my league: Joe Nathan was dealt for Kazmir, Bobby Abreu and Brian McCann. My gut reaction: Woah!
Granted, Kazmir, Abreu and McCann haven't performed up to expectations this year. But all of them are above-average contributors. Kazmir obviously has lots of room to improve in the second half. Abreu is on the wrong side of 30 but has been a solid fantasy performer for years. McCann was arguably the best fantasy catcher in the game in 2006. Sure, Nathan's a fine closer, and the guy who proposed the trade obviously needed saves. But that's a pretty lopsided deal if you ask me.
My league is new this year, so this was the first time a trade was contested. Two of us logged a protest through ESPN.com. Our commissioner put it up for vote among the league. The results: 4-3 (with three owners failing to vote), the trade stands.
And I'm fine with that. The league has spoken, and that's the way it should be. The two guys involved in the deal aren't going anywhere in the standings anyway. But they both knew what they were doing, and I don't see any evidence of collusion or anything shady. Maybe others think it was a fair and square deal. That's why I flipped Alfonso Soriano today to a hardcore Cubs fan (the same guy who dealt for Nathan, in fact) for Josh Beckett, Todd Helton and B.J. Upton. In my eyes it's a borderline unfair trade, even though I hated to see Soriano go. But I'm happy with it, and if the rest of my league allows it, I'll be even happier. The important thing is we let the democratic process play out.
God bless America.
In a roundabout way, that brings us to the topic of unfair trades in fantasy baseball. Much like the Kazmir-Zambrano deal, there are usually a handful of trade proposals that make everyone in the league chuckle. Just like we all knew the Mets weren't going anywhere at the time and were sacrificing a potential ace for an injury-prone, unremarkable innings eater, there's always a fantasy swap or two that everyone views as one-sided. It happened not long ago in my league: Joe Nathan was dealt for Kazmir, Bobby Abreu and Brian McCann. My gut reaction: Woah!
Granted, Kazmir, Abreu and McCann haven't performed up to expectations this year. But all of them are above-average contributors. Kazmir obviously has lots of room to improve in the second half. Abreu is on the wrong side of 30 but has been a solid fantasy performer for years. McCann was arguably the best fantasy catcher in the game in 2006. Sure, Nathan's a fine closer, and the guy who proposed the trade obviously needed saves. But that's a pretty lopsided deal if you ask me.
My league is new this year, so this was the first time a trade was contested. Two of us logged a protest through ESPN.com. Our commissioner put it up for vote among the league. The results: 4-3 (with three owners failing to vote), the trade stands.
And I'm fine with that. The league has spoken, and that's the way it should be. The two guys involved in the deal aren't going anywhere in the standings anyway. But they both knew what they were doing, and I don't see any evidence of collusion or anything shady. Maybe others think it was a fair and square deal. That's why I flipped Alfonso Soriano today to a hardcore Cubs fan (the same guy who dealt for Nathan, in fact) for Josh Beckett, Todd Helton and B.J. Upton. In my eyes it's a borderline unfair trade, even though I hated to see Soriano go. But I'm happy with it, and if the rest of my league allows it, I'll be even happier. The important thing is we let the democratic process play out.
God bless America.
All-Star break: taking stock
The All-Star break is almost here. Time to kick back for a few days, enjoy the festivities from San Francisco, and maybe catch up on some things you’ve been missing the past few months while you were engrossed with your fantasy team. You know, like the MLS season, or those Sopranos episodes on your TiVo (hey, what ever happened to Tony?), or your baby’s first words.
It’s also a perfect opportunity to evaluate your team’s performance so far. Have you been riding a gang of overachievers? Or have you been stuck with a bunch of slumping superstars? Either way, you could be due for a major statistical correction in the second half. Remember, while there are always a few anomalies, most players tend to come pretty close to their projections for a season.
Case in point: Brad Penny. The Los Angeles Dodgers righty has had an unbelievable few months (10-1, 2.39 ERA) and could be in line to start for the National League squad this week. Sound familiar? Perhaps that’s because in the first half of 2006, Penny went 10-2 with 2.91 ERA and started for the NL in the Midsummer Classic. Cue the Twilight Zone music.
Now, take a look at Penny’s final 2006 stats: 16-9, 4.66 ERA. That’s right, Penny went 6-7 in the second half of the season and brought his ERA much closer to his career mark (now at 3.88). In other words, he was pitching a little bit over his head in the first half last year.
So is Penny due for a similar freefall this year? I wouldn’t go that far, but if you’re penciling him in to win 20 games and keep his ERA in the 2.00s, you might be fooling yourself. I’m not saying you’ve got to jettison him, but I do hope you at least brace yourself for when Penny inevitably comes back to Earth.
Here are a few other notable players who, for better or worse, should be returning to reality in the second half:
• Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians: Pronk hasn’t touched the kind of production we expected this season. He’s batting just .257 through Thursday (compared to over .300 the past three seasons), and while he’s walking and striking out at about his usual rates, his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) is just .844, as opposed to 1.098, 1.003 and .993 the past three years. That means the extra-base hits just haven’t been there this season, but I have a hard time believing that will continue for this accomplished slugger.
• David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: It’s a similar story for Big Papi, another DH whose power numbers are down. Ortiz is actually hitting above .300, but with just 13 homers, his lowest first-half total since 2003. He’s going deep about once every 22 at-bats, a rate that hasn’t been so low for him since his forgotten days as a Minnesota Twin. Ortiz homered once every 10 at-bats last season, and I foresee a similar spike in production in the second half.
• J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers: I’ve been warning folks about Hardy since his hot start in May. I realize he’s a young player experiencing a breakout season with, but it may be time to quit while you’re ahead. Hardy’s 18 homers at the midway point are probably more than you could have dreamed of when you drafted him, considering he went deep just 25 times in 302 career minor league games and 14 times in 500 major league at-bats in ‘05 and ’06 combined. His average has also steadily declined since May (he batted .220 in June), so see if you can deal Hardy for a more proven commodity.
• Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles Angels: You drafted him for his speed, but Cabrera’s lofty numbers at the plate this year (.329, 48 RBIs) have been the bigger story. They’re even more eye-opening when you realize the 10-year pro is a career .273 hitter, has never hit over .300 in a season, and is on pace for more RBIs than his previous career best (96), which came way back in 2001 when he was a Montreal Expo (remember them?). Expect Cabrera to still give you the speed you need, but don’t count on the same offensive output after the break.
It’s also a perfect opportunity to evaluate your team’s performance so far. Have you been riding a gang of overachievers? Or have you been stuck with a bunch of slumping superstars? Either way, you could be due for a major statistical correction in the second half. Remember, while there are always a few anomalies, most players tend to come pretty close to their projections for a season.
Case in point: Brad Penny. The Los Angeles Dodgers righty has had an unbelievable few months (10-1, 2.39 ERA) and could be in line to start for the National League squad this week. Sound familiar? Perhaps that’s because in the first half of 2006, Penny went 10-2 with 2.91 ERA and started for the NL in the Midsummer Classic. Cue the Twilight Zone music.
Now, take a look at Penny’s final 2006 stats: 16-9, 4.66 ERA. That’s right, Penny went 6-7 in the second half of the season and brought his ERA much closer to his career mark (now at 3.88). In other words, he was pitching a little bit over his head in the first half last year.
So is Penny due for a similar freefall this year? I wouldn’t go that far, but if you’re penciling him in to win 20 games and keep his ERA in the 2.00s, you might be fooling yourself. I’m not saying you’ve got to jettison him, but I do hope you at least brace yourself for when Penny inevitably comes back to Earth.
Here are a few other notable players who, for better or worse, should be returning to reality in the second half:
• Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians: Pronk hasn’t touched the kind of production we expected this season. He’s batting just .257 through Thursday (compared to over .300 the past three seasons), and while he’s walking and striking out at about his usual rates, his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) is just .844, as opposed to 1.098, 1.003 and .993 the past three years. That means the extra-base hits just haven’t been there this season, but I have a hard time believing that will continue for this accomplished slugger.
• David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: It’s a similar story for Big Papi, another DH whose power numbers are down. Ortiz is actually hitting above .300, but with just 13 homers, his lowest first-half total since 2003. He’s going deep about once every 22 at-bats, a rate that hasn’t been so low for him since his forgotten days as a Minnesota Twin. Ortiz homered once every 10 at-bats last season, and I foresee a similar spike in production in the second half.
• J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers: I’ve been warning folks about Hardy since his hot start in May. I realize he’s a young player experiencing a breakout season with, but it may be time to quit while you’re ahead. Hardy’s 18 homers at the midway point are probably more than you could have dreamed of when you drafted him, considering he went deep just 25 times in 302 career minor league games and 14 times in 500 major league at-bats in ‘05 and ’06 combined. His average has also steadily declined since May (he batted .220 in June), so see if you can deal Hardy for a more proven commodity.
• Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles Angels: You drafted him for his speed, but Cabrera’s lofty numbers at the plate this year (.329, 48 RBIs) have been the bigger story. They’re even more eye-opening when you realize the 10-year pro is a career .273 hitter, has never hit over .300 in a season, and is on pace for more RBIs than his previous career best (96), which came way back in 2001 when he was a Montreal Expo (remember them?). Expect Cabrera to still give you the speed you need, but don’t count on the same offensive output after the break.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
Fantasy All-Stars
Ah, the Midsummer Classic. Time for a whole lot of griping (mostly by newspaper/online columnist types) about how Player X should be on the All-Star team, or Team Y doesn't deserve an All-Star representative, or how the All-Star Game should be tweaked, or how the All-Star Game should get whacked. Add in the whole Barry Bonds factor with this year's game being in San Francisco, and there's going to be a whole lot of whining going on this week. It doesn't help either that there's almost absolutely nothing else going on in the sports world right about now.
Around here, we don't have those problems. There's no room for sentimentality or catering to the fans, and although Bonds is having a nice season, he doesn't make the cut. My All-Star selections are based on one thing, and one thing only: cold, hard stats. And nobody gets to pull out with a tight hamstring either ... mostly because there's no actual game being played. Anyway, here's the 2007 Jason Bartolone Fantasy All-Star Team:
DH David Ortiz, Red Sox: Big Papi is the choice, partly because Travis Hafner, Jim Thome and Jason Giambi haven't performed as expected. Not that Ortiz (.566 slugging) is a slouch by any means.
C Russell Martin, Dodgers: Martin gets the edge over a rejuvenated Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez mostly because of the unique speed (14 steals and counting!) he brings to the position. Those who waited for him in the draft are being rewarded.
1B Prince Fielder, Brewers: Prince's power puts him over the top at a stacked position. It helps that Albert Pujols is having a "down" year.
2B Chase Utley, Phillies: It's Utley by a nose over the Orioles' Brian Roberts. Roberts' wheels are a great asset (25 steals, tops in the AL), but Utley's got the power numbers of a corner outfielder.
SS Jose Reyes, Mets: Speed merchant Reyes gets the call, but plenty of others (Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, J.J. Hardy, Edgar Renteria, Carlos Guillen ...) deserve to be in the conversation.
3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: A no-brainer. Miguel Cabrera and David Wright are distant followers thanks to all those A-bombs.
OF Gary Sheffield, Tigers; Magglio Ordonez, Tigers; Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: Who could have predicted this motley crew? It might change completely by year's end, though, if some of the other usual suspects (Vladimir Guerrero, Alfonso Soriano) stay hot. Ichiro edges Grady Sizemore for the third spot; he can't match Sizemore's power (five HRs to Grady's 13, with room to grow) but has a big edge in average (.364 to .279) and hits (115 to 86).
SP Dan Haren, Athletics: Danny doesn't have the double-digit wins like a few other guys out there (yet), but his ratios (1.91 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) are simply to die for.
RP J.J. Putz, Mariners: Contrary to popular belief, saves aren't everything when it comes to relievers. Sure, Putz is up there (23 saves, tied for third in the league), but more importantly, he hasn't blown one yet, and no other closers can touch his 0.95 ERA and 0.61 WHIP.
Around here, we don't have those problems. There's no room for sentimentality or catering to the fans, and although Bonds is having a nice season, he doesn't make the cut. My All-Star selections are based on one thing, and one thing only: cold, hard stats. And nobody gets to pull out with a tight hamstring either ... mostly because there's no actual game being played. Anyway, here's the 2007 Jason Bartolone Fantasy All-Star Team:
DH David Ortiz, Red Sox: Big Papi is the choice, partly because Travis Hafner, Jim Thome and Jason Giambi haven't performed as expected. Not that Ortiz (.566 slugging) is a slouch by any means.
C Russell Martin, Dodgers: Martin gets the edge over a rejuvenated Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez mostly because of the unique speed (14 steals and counting!) he brings to the position. Those who waited for him in the draft are being rewarded.
1B Prince Fielder, Brewers: Prince's power puts him over the top at a stacked position. It helps that Albert Pujols is having a "down" year.
2B Chase Utley, Phillies: It's Utley by a nose over the Orioles' Brian Roberts. Roberts' wheels are a great asset (25 steals, tops in the AL), but Utley's got the power numbers of a corner outfielder.
SS Jose Reyes, Mets: Speed merchant Reyes gets the call, but plenty of others (Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, J.J. Hardy, Edgar Renteria, Carlos Guillen ...) deserve to be in the conversation.
3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: A no-brainer. Miguel Cabrera and David Wright are distant followers thanks to all those A-bombs.
OF Gary Sheffield, Tigers; Magglio Ordonez, Tigers; Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: Who could have predicted this motley crew? It might change completely by year's end, though, if some of the other usual suspects (Vladimir Guerrero, Alfonso Soriano) stay hot. Ichiro edges Grady Sizemore for the third spot; he can't match Sizemore's power (five HRs to Grady's 13, with room to grow) but has a big edge in average (.364 to .279) and hits (115 to 86).
SP Dan Haren, Athletics: Danny doesn't have the double-digit wins like a few other guys out there (yet), but his ratios (1.91 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) are simply to die for.
RP J.J. Putz, Mariners: Contrary to popular belief, saves aren't everything when it comes to relievers. Sure, Putz is up there (23 saves, tied for third in the league), but more importantly, he hasn't blown one yet, and no other closers can touch his 0.95 ERA and 0.61 WHIP.
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