Wednesday, November 29, 2006

WEEK 12 - Sunday Recap

-OK, so I was a little off on my "sit Willis McGahee" advice .... but seriously, who could have predicted two TDs? ... between the broken ribs, the splitting of carries with Anthony Thomas, the Jags' supposed run-stopping abilities and the fact that McGahee had one TD entering the game .... I guess that's why they play the games.

-What's going on with Torry Holt? The dude was on fire earlier in the year, scoring a TD every week in a five-game stretch that culminated with a 154-yard, three-TD showing in Week 8 against Seattle. Then came the bye, and he hasn't scored or cracked 73 receiving yards since. The tough part is he's been so good and so consistent for so long, it's almost impossible to imagine benching him. He could break out at any time - especially this week against Arizona.

-Looks like Shaun Alexander's foot is juuuuust fine. He should benefit from having fresh legs down the stretch. Getting 40 carries a game won't hurt either.

-LaDainian Tomlinson has been incredible (three more TDs last week - including another one passing!), but you almost wish he'd save some of these scores for the fantasy playoffs when we REALLY need them. Here's hoping he can keep up this amazing run.

-So much for Mike Vanderjagt being a top fantasy option this year. Damn Idiot Kicker. See what I mean about kickers and defenses being unpredictable? I'm not sure Martin Gramatica will be any better though.

-You have to love what Drew Brees and the Saints are doing right now. WR Devery Henderson (154 yards, TD vs. Atlanta) is a must-own, and Terrance Copper should get a shot too as long as Marques Colston's hand is still a problem. And as I expected, Deuce McAllister (74 yards, two TDs) is a much better option than Reggie Bush (45 total yards), who doesn't really even deserve a roster spot at this point except in really deep leagues.

-You might not guess it on the surface, but if you've got Chester Taylor as one of your top two backs, you might be playing with fire. Sure, he's scored three times in the last two games and just gashed the Cardinals, but up next are the Bears, who are capable (although not always consistently) of shutting down the run and held Taylor to 74 yards and no TDs in their first meeting this season. After that, things get considerably easier for Taylor and the Vikes (Lions, Jets, Packers, Rams), but Taylor has been dealing with "body soreness" in his first full season as a featured back. Those look like appealing matchups, but I'd have a backup plan just in case he hits a wall in the near future.

-It's time to think about benching Eli Manning if you haven't already. I have to admit I had much higher hopes for young Elisha, both as a Giants fan and as a fantasy player with Manning on two of my teams. I was even so bold as to predict he'd finish with slightly better numbers than Peyton a few weeks ago, back when the G-Men actually looked like a playoff team. But if Eli couldn't break out of it against the Titans, then it's hard to imagine things getting much better the rest of the way. I'm not saying he should be benched in real life, nor should you go cutting him and picking up Bruce Gradkowski or something, because the potential is still there for Eli ... but if you've got another proven QB on your roster or a nice matchup, by all means, go for it.

-I thought Leon Washington was just starting to become a valuable commodity a few weeks ago, but the Jets' backfield has been a mysterious mess, and they couldn't even do anything against the Texans. Washington's stock has plummeted the past few weeks, while the value of his rookie trading card has skyrocketed ("East siiiide!"). You need to start thinking about a possible upgrade if you've got Leon or any of the Jets' runners as a third or fourth RB.

-Sunday was a day to forget for Willie Parker (10 carries, 22 yards) and the rest of the reigning Super Bowl champs. They were flat-out steamrolled by the Ravens in a shutout loss, though it was easy to imagine going in that Parker might not have much room to run and the Steelers would be playing from behind. Fast Willie hasn't exactly been consistent, but he's had his share of big games, and I'd expect two more in the coming weeks against the Bucs and Browns.

-That reminds me, it might be easy to forget about the weekly Thursday game now, especially if you don't have the NFL Network, but you'll want to get your Bengals and Ravens in your starting lineup ASAP.

-And by the way, It looks like the NFL is losing its battle with the major cable companies so far. It seems their hard-line stance hasn't worked out the way they had expected by now. Here's hoping the league will give in and lower its price so all of us can enjoy these Thursday games - without extra charges on our cable bill.

-It seems like ages ago but we should touch on the Thanksgiving games too:

Joey Harrington was predictably good against a bad Lions defense, though it would be great if Chris Chambers could have gotten just a little piece of the action. ...

Tony Romo was surprisingly great against the Bucs. You should basically start all your offensive players against the Bucs' D because they've inexplicably fallen off the face of the Earth and can't stop anybody - just don't expect five passing TDs all the time. ...

And Larry Johnson turned in another fine performance. I probably don't need to say this, but never bench him. I don't think anyone is sorry they drafted him, and if it wasn't for LT's otherworldly production the past few weeks LJ would be getting a lot more pub.

-And finally, for those of you who are also college football fans, or just readers of blogs in general, check out my friend Rick Burchfield's college football blog.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Cutler gets the call

There's a report out there that the Broncos are going to hand over the starting QB reins to rookie Jay Cutler after watching Jake Plummer struggle all season. Cutler is intriguing from a fantasy perspective, as he's been considered by some to be the most NFL-ready QB in this year's rookie class. He also takes over control of a team thought to be a playoff contender, and ESPN's John Clayton says the change is expected to be permanent. It's probably safe to dump Plummer at this point - and let's face it, he probably wasn't helping too many teams out there anyway - and Cutler is worth a shot if you're looking for QB help.

Some other things you need to know:

-Saints rookie sensation Marques Colston will be a game-time decision with his high ankle sprain, which means you should probably look elsewhere if you have options. Hopefully the guy will be back soon to solidify that offensive rookie of the year award.

-The Bills are optimistic Willis McGahee will make his return against Jacksonville today. If he does, I'd imagine he'd split some carries with Anthony Thomas at least for one week and have a hard time against the Jags' run defense. Sit him for another week if you can.

-Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start Monday against Green Bay, and after seeing what Tom Brady and the Pats did to the Packers last week, this should be a great opportunity for Hasselbeck to shake off that rust.

Monday, November 20, 2006

WEEK 11 - Sunday Recap

It was a pretty exciting football weekend from start to finish, with lots of huge performances and big injuries to talk about. So let's do this.

-We'll start with Donovan McNabb. Mr. Chunky Soup himself was shaping up to be 2006 Fantasy MVP, but now he's gone for the season (again), this time with a torn ACL. This is a crushing blow, and I don't think Jeff Garcia is going to be of much use as a backup plan. You may want to see if somebody like Tony Romo or Steve McNair is still up for grabs. Good luck with that.

-LaDainian Tomlinson ... four TDs ... we're not worthy! To quote one of my old high school football teammates, "I'M A MACHINE!!!!!"

-Lee Evans gave us a sneak preview of that new Denzel Washington movie Deja Vu with not one but two 83-yard TD catches in the same quarter against Houston. Evans has had some clunkers this season, but the deep threat was a good option against the Texans, and he rewarded owners with a 265-yard showing, the most put up by a WR this season. He's the kind of guy you've got to roll the dice on each week unless you've got two studs ahead of him on your depth chart.

-Chad Johnson had another sick game (190 yards, three TDs), even with a sore hamstring. I think that early season slump is pretty much over, don't you?

-Lost in all the commotion was Drew Brees' 500 (yes, 500) yards passing in a loss to Cincy. He's flinging the ball around like he was in the Arena League (TDs to Joe Horn and Terrance Copper this time), although he did lose rookie sensation Marques Colston to an ankle sprain, plus he was picked off three times (twice in the end zone). The Saints' defensive problems are only helping Brees, as he's had to play catch-up lately. I'd expect him to air it out again next Sunday against Atlanta.

-Tom Brady had a predictably fine day (four TDs) against a pathetic Packers passing defense, but Brett Favre didn't hold up his end of the bargain in what should have been a shootout. The Pats' secondary was missing three starters, and Favre - who's been playing well and not turning it over, plus he was playing at home, in good weather - couldn't get anything (and I mean anything) done before leaving with an injured arm. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him start next Monday at Seattle - there's no way in hell wily ol' Brett is gonna let that Aaron Rodgers kid stay on the field, future of the franchise be damned!

-Frank Gore had another ridiculous game (212 yards). He's got the kind of young legs that can help carry you through the playoffs, plus a very favorable schedule (St. Louis, New Orleans, Green Bay, Seattle, Arizona, Denver), so you may want to think about acquiring him if someone attempts to sell high after this performance. The only cause for concern is an early-season fumbling problem that popped up again Sunday.

-Shaun Alexander was just ... eh in his much-awaited return to the lineup (17 carries for 37 yards). Not exactly what we had in mind, but I understand it might take him a while to get his rhythm back. I'd expect a little more against the Packers on Monday.

-I love the suit look from Niners coach Mike Nolan. Very classy move by the anti-Bill Belichick - I didn't even see any ketchup stains!

-The Cowboys' upset of the previously undefeated Colts was due in large part to their commitment to the running game. Once again that was a bittersweet pill for Julius Jones owners, however, as he rushed 22 times for 79 yards but yielded two short-yardage TDs to Marion Barber III. Jones was even brought down at the 1-yard line on one run. It's gotten to the point that Barber is a better fantasy option than Jones. Sad but true.

-Another injury note: Kevin Jones left with an ankle sprain after managing eight yards on four carries. No word on the extent yet, but it might be asking a lot for him to be back and ready to go on Turkey Day against Miami.

-Edgerrin James actually cracked the 90-yard mark for the first time this season. You may want to consider dealing him if you can find a gullible trading partner since Edge has put up three straight above-average rush totals.

-Braylon Edwards' big game (137 yards, TD) against the Steelers could have been even bigger. He had two desperation end-zone heaves - one just before halftime and one at the end of the game - bounce off his hands. But the real story is he's looking fully recovered from that knee surgery, and I like him a lot next week against a Bengals D that was just lit up by Brees.

-Is there a less surprising headline than "LaMont Jordan likely done for year with torn MCL?" Most owners might have guessed he actually tore it weeks ago but didn't tell anyone. Anyway, the real news is Justin Fargas, who was already chipping away at Jordan's carries, is going to get a lot of work the rest of the way. I wouldn't expect much on the road against San Diego next week, but Week 13 against Houston seems like as good a day as any for a breakout game.

-Trent Green didn't do a whole lot in his return from a concussion, as you would expect - especially with Tony Gonzalez (separated shoulder) out. Green's main job was to hand off to Larry Johnson (31 carries, 154 yards, two TDs), and rightfully so. Look for more of the same on Thanksgving against Denver - only if you get the NFL Network, that is.

-The Broncos' RB situation is kind of like the NFL's version of The OC, only with a lot fewer skinny white chicks. There's lots of drama, shocking revelations and gossip on a weekly basis. Tatum Bell stars as the stud with personal problems (fumbling, turf toe). Mike Bell plays the young newcomer who doesn't always get along with his hardass dad (Mike Shanahan). Damien Nash is the new kid in town. Cedric Cobbs' character was killed off weeks ago in a freak chemical explosion.

Seriously though ... Mike Bell thinks his deactivation in Week 10 was a message from the coaching staff, and he responded with 90 yards and two TDs against the Chargers. Nash also made some big plays, garnering 56 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards after basically doing nothing all season. But it could all be a moot point as Denver was reportedly resting Tatum's toes in anticipation of getting the most out of him Thursday against the Chiefs. We've known since preseason this situation would be hard to read, but this is taking it to new extremes. Be thankful if you don't have to deal with it on a weekly basis.

-I almost forgot to mention the Rams, but there really wasn't much to see here. In another column this week I mentioned that outside of LT and LJ, Steven Jackson was the one highly-regarded RB from the preseason who hasn't been disappointing in any way this year - and then he gets just 27 yards on the ground and 30 through the air in St. Louis' stinker against Carolina. Don't press the panic button though after one bad game. Patience, grasshopper.

-Speaking of disappointments, Cadillac Williams actually cracked the century mark for the second time this year. Just don't hold your breath for it to happen Thursday at Dallas.

-There are a few somewhat misleading point totals worth mentioning. Jamal Lewis had a career-high three TDs in the second half against Atlanta, but even Lewis admitted the Ravens running game took advantage of a tired Falcons D late in the game. I'm not ready to declare him a must-start from here on out. The same goes for Chester Taylor, who finished with 80 yards and two TDs but was also stopped on the goal line, fumbled twice and averaged 2.9 yards a carry. You'll have to consider the matchup carefully before inserting Taylor in your lineup now that he's without fine fullback and lead blocker Tony Richardson (arm).

-Jason Campbell was OK in his first start, but I don't expect a PS3-style mad rush to go out and get him off the waiver wire. It is a good sign, however, that he recognizes TE Chris Cooley (five catches, 58 yards, TE) is a weapon.

-There were 10 defensive/special teams TDs scored Sunday, including two each by Cleveland, Miami and Cincinnati, but none by the Ravens or Bears. Go figure. Once again this proves defenses are extremely hard to predict.

Monday, November 13, 2006

WEEK 10 - Sunday Recap

-Steven Jackson had another workmanlike day (93 yards, TD) for the Rams, but Marc Bulger didn't get much done (zero TDs, one INT) in St. Louis' fourth straight loss. The loss of LT Orlando Pace is certainly not going to help this offense down the stretch.

-Chalk up another 100-yard effort for Maurice Morris ... the Shaun Alexander Foot Watch continues .....

-The Chiefs' O came to a screeching halt in Miami, although Larry Johnson did put together an 75-yard, one-TD effort.

-Chris Chambers came up just short (literally) of another nice day. He had 66 receiving yards, with 45 of those coming on a deep flea flicker that left him just shy of the goal line. Ronnie Brown punched it in from the 1-yard line after that. Chambers also lost a crucial fumble late in the game one on of those reverses the Dolphins seem to use him on once a week.

-Once again this week's game ball goes to LaDainian Tomlinson. Four TDs. Unreal. He even managed to outdo monster performances by Philip Rivers (337, three TDs), Carson Palmer (440, three TDs) and Chad Johnson (260 yards, two TDs), who had the most receiving yards in a game since Terrell Owens (283) in 2000.

-Speaking of T.O., he caught a 51-yard TD strike from Tony Romo in the Cowboys' win over Arizona. Romo had a really solid day (308 yards, two TDs), but that's to be expected against the Cards. On the other side of the ball, Larry Fitzgerald returned from his hamstring injury and caught six balls for 80 yards, but he also left the game late, reportedly after reaggravating the hammy. Bummer ... keep an eye on this of course.

-Another bummer: The Redskins have lost Clinton Portis to a broken hand. Looks like he'll need surgery, and there are conflicting reports as to whether he'll return this season. Portis owners should run to the free agent list and look for Ladell Betts' name.

-Welcome back, Donte' Stallworth. The oft-injured Eagles WR had his best day since Week 1 (139 yards, TD) against the Skins. If you didn't already lose your patience with him, he's got a good matchup against Tennessee next week, plus a rematch with Washington a few weeks after that.

-Eli Manning was pretty horrendous (121 yards, no TDs, two INTs) against the Bears in the big NFC showdown on NBC. It was his first touchdownless (is that a word? sure.) game since Week 13 of last season against Dallas.

-Usual story for the Giants' backfield: Tiki Barber (144 yards) moved the chains, Brandon Jacobs (two TDs) got the glory. It will be interesting to see if Big Brandon (the guy needs a nickname - any suggestions?) can run as strongly inside the 20s next year, assuming Tiki sticks to his word and retires. Oh, and Barber sprained a thumb, as if the G-Men couldn't get any more banged-up. LT Luke Petitgout also broke a leg, which isn't going to help the skill players much.

-Not only did the Bears' D force three turnovers, it also lucked out with a special-teams TD when Devin Hester caught the Giants asleep and ran back a missed FG for a record 108-yard TD. It was the NFL's longest play since teammate Nathan Vasher did the same thing last year against San Fran.

-Try to figure Michael Vick out. I challenge you. Two monster games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Two turnover-plagued stinkers against Detroit and Cleveland. Sure, he wasn't helped by some dropped passes (as usual), but if there's one thing fantasy owners want out of their players it's consistency, and Mr. Vick can't give you that.

-That's a TD in two straight games for Braylon Edwards. Nice to see the Browns utilizing him. And don't forget the Browns have got Tampa Bay and Houston in Weeks 16 and 17.

-Buffalo RB Anthony Thomas did pretty much what I expected against Indy (28 carries, 109 yards) in his first start replacing Willis McGahee. A TD would have been nice, but I guess he was just doing his best McGahee imitation. If Thomas is still available, get him before the secret's out - he faces Houston next week.

-The Niners' Frank Gore set a franchise record with a huge first half (149 yards, plus a TD) against Detroit. Unfortunately, he missed much of the second half with a "mild" concussion, but hopefully it's nothing too serious. He's been putting together a nice year.

-Willie Parker was also a beast Sunday. He racked up 213 yards for the Steelers and added two short TD runs. He talked the talk last week, calling out his team for being complacent, and then he walked the walk. Fast Willie should have a huge day next week against the Browns, who he'll face for a second time three weeks after that.

-Steve McNair had a predictably big game (373 yards, three TDs) against his former team in Tennessee, although much of it came on a furious comeback attempt. Air McNair spread the ball around, tossing TDs to both Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason, plus an RB named Ovie Mughelli, a four-year veteran who now has seven career receptions and zero rushes.

-Congrats to the New York Jets for finally beating the Patriots and handing New England its first back-to-back losses in 57 games. That Bill Belichick-Eric Mangini relationship is just heartwarming, isn't it?

- Tom Brady had a subpar outing (255 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) - definitely not what Brady owners expected a week after a dismal outing against the Colts. Things will get brighter for him, though - maybe next week against the Packers, or perhaps against the Lions, Texans or Titans. Hey, who made up this schedule anyway?

-Brett Favre had a pretty good game (347 yards, two TDs) with the help of Donald Driver (career-high 191 yards, TD). He's been valuable this year as a No. 2 QB, but I'm not sure I'd want to start him next week against the aforementioned Pats, who will be angry.

-The Broncos were pretty pitiful offensively, but luckily for them, they were playing Oakland, the most pitiful team out there. I'm not sure why I even bother to mention these guys, but it's good for a laugh: LaMont Jordan had 12 yards on 10 carries. That's 1.2 yards a carry for the math majors out there. He did score a TD though. And Randy Moss - that's five-time Pro Bowler Randy Moss - had one catch for eight yards. What do you think he and Andrew Walter talk about in the locker room? I'm sure they're best buds. You think they go clubbing together?

-Figure this one out: Mike Bell goes from 136 yards and two TDs (Week 8) to 28 yards (Week 9) to healthy scratch (Week 10). On the other hand, Tatum Bell sputtered for only 37 yards on 14 carries against the Raiders, so maybe Mike will get another shot. Or not. Told you this was going to be frustrating.

Monday, November 06, 2006

WEEK 9 - Sunday Recap

-The Chiefs won the Show-Me State Showdown thanks to their stars. Larry Johnson (172 yards, TD) is playing at an MVP level right now, and Tony Gonzalez (two TDs) is steadily making his case as fantasy's top TE. St. Louis' Steven Jackson showed a little Marshall Faulk flair with his 219 total yards and a TD to boot, but it wasn't enough to negate the Rams' four turnovers.

-Javon Walker was a very pleasant surprise, catching two TDs and running in for another score on a reverse against Pittsburgh. He's been a pretty steady option, and as long as Jake Plummer keeps his head on straight, Walker should keep getting a lot of looks.

-Mike Bell didn't look quite as hot this week subbing for Tatum Bell. Granted, he had a tough assignment against the Steelers, but with 28 yards on 17 carries, he'll probably be back to fantasy irrelevance as soon as Tatum's toes are OK.

-Hoping for a miracle from LaDainian Tomlinson late in the afternoon? Apparently the Bolts were too, and LT2 didn't disappoint. After two quarters of warming up, Tomlinson smacked the Browns with three TDs and finished with 172 rushing yards. What more can you say about the guy? With him on your roster, you can never count yourself out.

-This is why you never bench a healthy Peyton Manning, ever: some might have thought he'd struggle against the Pats in Foxborough (last year's playoff breakthrough notwithstanding), but Big P used his "laser rocket arm" to put up over 300 yards and two TDs. Meanwhile, his counterpart Tom Brady stunk it up a week after his MNF outburst by chucking four INTs.

-I'm about to grab a baseball bat and head over to John Cougar Mellencamp's house in my Chevy pickup truck to take care of business. Now that's an idea that I can stand behind. Who's with me? After all, this is our country ...

-Checking the two RBBCs in the Sunday night game: As we suspected, Joseph Addai was the go-to guy in the Colts backfield, getting 18 carries to Dominic Rhodes' four and adding a TD. Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney split carries right down the middle, 13 to 13, but it was the wise old veteran who got the red-zone work and crossed the goal line twice.

-Told you things would get brighter soon for Tiki Barber. He cracked 100 yards, of course, against the Texans, but more importantly he found the end zone for the first time in 2006. And for those who were expecting a little more out of the Giants' skill players against the Texans: Eli Manning did hit Jeremy Shockey for a very late TD pass, but other than that the Giants' offense was predicatbly flat in a what could have easily been a trap game. It didn't help that Plaxico Burress (back) was on the shelf ... keep an eye on him, but my gut tells me he'll want to play under the Sunday night lights against Chicago.

-Ronnie Brown had his best day as a pro on the ground (157 yards) in the Dolphins' big upset win over the Bears. Raise your hand if you started him.

-Michael Vick came back to Earth in a hurry. A TD pass to his BFF, Alge Crumpler, was nice, and so were the 80 rushing yards, but we were expecting a little more against the Lions, Mike. All of a sudden the guy isn't such a must-start against Cleveland next week. Maddening, but I'd still take a chance.

-Meanwhile, Jon Kitna (321 yards, TD) continues to put up acceptable fantasy numbers in anonymity, and Kevin Jones (110 yards, TD on season-high 26 carries) and Roy Williams (138 yards, TD) both keep looking good. Did I mention the Lions play the Niners, Cards and Dolphins the next three weeks?

-If you started a Jaguars skill player and glanced at the score Sunday, you're ecstatic. Then you realize David Garrard's in at QB, and he threw three TDs to Ernest Wilford (twice) and George Wrighster. And the defense - even though it was awesome and scored a TD on a pick-six - lost its shutout late in the fourth quarter. Kind of a bummer.

-Terrell Owens and Clinton Portis each scored a TD in that wacky Cowboys-Redskins tilt, but they both could have doubled their fun. Portis got stopped on a 4th-and-goal at the 1, and T.O. dropped a long bomb that probably would have gone for a score and possibly would have sealed a win for the 'Boys.

-Joey Galloway (97 yards, two TDs) has been incredibly hit or miss this year. His yardage totals by game: 0, 161, 8, 110, 67, 0, 32, 97. Too bad he can't play the Saints every week. By this logic, expect nothing against the Panthers next Monday night and then a huge effort against the Redskins.

-As for Cadillac Williams (39 yards), he seems like a lost cause, at least for this year until that Bucs offensive line "gels," whatever that means. The decent performances have been way too sparse for you to count on him. I'd shelve him unless you're desperate.

-I'm not even touching the field goal festival between Minnesota and San Fran. Nothing to see there. Move along.

-Ahman Green is running strong again - 122 yards against Buffalo, his third straight game topping the century mark. Green's got a tough draw with Minnesota, New England and Seattle up next, but these last three efforts bode well.

-Willis McGahee left with a rib injury - which means Anthony Thomas is suddenly a good sleeper candidate with the run-soft Colts and Texans coming up the next two weeks on the Bills' schedule. But just in case you're skeptical, Thomas did manage 95 yards and a TD when he got the call against Green Bay.

-Another clunker from Chad Johnson (4 catches, 39 yards), just when we thought the SI cover boy was getting hot. But it was against the Ravens after all, who seemingly have some offense to go with that D now that Certified Genius Brian Billick is calling the plays. Only good things can happen when Jamal Lewis gets more than 20 carries a game - congratulate yourself for scooping him up in the middle rounds.