START
Still waiting for Frank Gore to break out? Here's betting he does it against the Seahawks, who he gashed for 356 yards in two games last year.
I'm starting just about all my Giants and Eagles ... that includes Brian Westbrook (until somebody tells me he's declared out), Kevin Curtis (he's not catching three TDs again in a game this year though, hate to break it to you) and Derrick Ward (but Brandon Jacobs will return soon, so be warned).
Marshawn Lynch should be in there against a Jets team that made Ronnie Brown look like Jim Brown last week. Plus, he's really the only option the Bills have with Trent Edwards taking over handoff duties from J.P. Losman this week.
Sure, Larry Fitzgerald faces a tough Steelers D, but the Cardinals will be without his buddy, Anquan Boldin, so Kurt Warner and/or Matt Leinart will be looking to Fitz often.
SIT
Adrian Peterson has been great for the Vikings, but Chester Taylor is supposedly getting healthier, and Minnesota says it's committed to splitting carries between the veteran and the rookie. Plus, the Packers haven't allowed a rushing TD yet.
Brandon Jackson has been hampered by a strained shin (how does that happen, exactly?) and probably wouldn't find much room to run against the Vikings anyway.
The rejuvenated Edgerrin James has another challenge this week against the Steelers, who haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since ... Edgerrin James, in 2005. He's not hitting the century mark this time.
Alex Smith hasn't taken the next step this season. Even though the matchup with Seattle is enticing, I'm not starting him unless I'm really strapped.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Hot pickups - Week 4
RB Brian Leonard, St. Louis Rams: The rookie is an obvious choice as he fills in for Steven Jackson this week against Dallas (and probably a few weeks more after that). Assuming he wasn't handcuffed by Jackson owners protecting their No. 1 pick, you need to go out and get Leonard now. If you've been privy to any of his highlights from Rutgers (see video below), you know he can play a little ball. I'm excited to see what the kid can do as a pro. FIVE STARS (OUT OF FIVE)
WR Dwyane Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs: I like what I've seen out of this cat so far. He's got two TDs already (Larry Johnson has zero) and he might be K.C.'s most reliable receiving option not named Tony Gonzalez. FOUR STARS
RB Aaron Stecker, New Orleans Saints: Now that Deuce McAllister is sidelined for '07, a lot of people don't believe Reggie Bush can carry the load by himself. I'm one of those people - although I don't think Stecker's going to just automatically match Deuce's numbers, either. He'll get a few TDs though - assuming Sean Payton's visor stops cutting off the circulation to his brain - which means Stecker deserves to be owned. THREE STARS
RB Ron Dayne, Houston Texans: Counting on Dayne is always a risky proposition, but if you happen to get inside information that Ahman Green is too hurt to play this Sunday against the Falcons and Dayne isn't, this risk will pay off. THREE STARS
RB Kenny Watson, Cincinnati Bengals: If Rudi Johnson's hamstring injury turns out to be serious, Watson would be the guy in Cincy with Chris Perry and Kenny Irons out of the picture for the time being. I wouldn't use him this week against the Patriots though - heck, I might not use Rudi even if he was healthy against the Pats. THREE STARS
QB Brian Griese, Chicago Bears: The nine-year vet gets the call this week, replacing Rex Grossman as the Bears' starter. We already know what Griese's capable of as a starter - "capable" is a good way to describe him, actually - and he certainly couldn't be any worse than Grossman. He's not a terrible spot starter, especially this week against Detroit. THREE STARS
RB Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I really hope Graham saved the footballs from his first two NFL TDs last week, because I honestly don't think a lot more are coming any time soon, no matter what Jon Gruden says. Even if Cadillac Williams is sidelined by sore ribs, don't you think Michael Pittman (5,101 rushing yards, 3,287 receiving yards and 29 total TDs in his career) is probably a smarter fantasy addition than Graham? I do. ONE STAR
WR Dwyane Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs: I like what I've seen out of this cat so far. He's got two TDs already (Larry Johnson has zero) and he might be K.C.'s most reliable receiving option not named Tony Gonzalez. FOUR STARS
RB Aaron Stecker, New Orleans Saints: Now that Deuce McAllister is sidelined for '07, a lot of people don't believe Reggie Bush can carry the load by himself. I'm one of those people - although I don't think Stecker's going to just automatically match Deuce's numbers, either. He'll get a few TDs though - assuming Sean Payton's visor stops cutting off the circulation to his brain - which means Stecker deserves to be owned. THREE STARS
RB Ron Dayne, Houston Texans: Counting on Dayne is always a risky proposition, but if you happen to get inside information that Ahman Green is too hurt to play this Sunday against the Falcons and Dayne isn't, this risk will pay off. THREE STARS
RB Kenny Watson, Cincinnati Bengals: If Rudi Johnson's hamstring injury turns out to be serious, Watson would be the guy in Cincy with Chris Perry and Kenny Irons out of the picture for the time being. I wouldn't use him this week against the Patriots though - heck, I might not use Rudi even if he was healthy against the Pats. THREE STARS
QB Brian Griese, Chicago Bears: The nine-year vet gets the call this week, replacing Rex Grossman as the Bears' starter. We already know what Griese's capable of as a starter - "capable" is a good way to describe him, actually - and he certainly couldn't be any worse than Grossman. He's not a terrible spot starter, especially this week against Detroit. THREE STARS
RB Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I really hope Graham saved the footballs from his first two NFL TDs last week, because I honestly don't think a lot more are coming any time soon, no matter what Jon Gruden says. Even if Cadillac Williams is sidelined by sore ribs, don't you think Michael Pittman (5,101 rushing yards, 3,287 receiving yards and 29 total TDs in his career) is probably a smarter fantasy addition than Graham? I do. ONE STAR
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
2008 baseball rankings
It's never too early to start looking ahead to 2008. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates: They've been doing that since, oh, Opening Day 2007.
Whether you were a fantasy baseball champ, a serious contender or a nonfactor like the real-life Pirates this year, you should already be thinking about next season. That's why I went ahead and did some extra-early fantasy rankings for '08 mixed leagues and keeper leagues.
Remember, a lot can change between now and then - injuries, free-agent signings, massive steroids scandals, the melting of the polar ice caps and so on. Don't start filling up my inbox with angry e-mails next April if Alex Rodriguez slips on a banana peel and tears his ACL or signs a $300 million contract with the Yomiuri Giants. This is just a helpful guide to get you started, and it's not etched in stone.
1. 3B A-Rod: Whether he stays in New York or uses that opt-out clause to go somewhere else for big money, he's still the most valuable fantasy commodity.
2. 3B Miguel Cabrera: He's already working on a Hall of Fame
resume at age 24. A move to first base is coming if his waistline keeps
expanding - but I like him for who he is inside.
3. 1B Albert Pujols: I fully expect him to revert to his incredible old self in '08. He's too gifted not to, right?
4. SS Hanley Ramirez: Anybody who's capable of 30 homers AND 50 steals can play on my team anytime.
5. 3B David Wright: Just pencil him in for a .300 average, 40 doubles, 20 steals, 100 RBIs ... and about a million marriage proposals.
6. SP Johan Santana: There are few sure things among pitchers, but he's one. And there's a good chance he'll be pitching for a new team at some point in '08 - an enticing thought should he end up on a big-budget contender.
7. SS Jose Reyes: This year's drop-offs in average, homers and RBIs are cause for concern, but his wheels (78 steals through Tuesday) still look fine to me.
8. 2B Chase Utley: The Philadelphia Phillies were smart to lock him up early. He's capable of MVP numbers at a relatively thin position.
9. OF Matt Holliday: He's an offensive force, and as far as I know he'll still be playing his home games in Coors Field next season.
10. 1B Ryan Howard: His skyrocketing strikeout totals are the only thing keeping him from astronomical offensive numbers. He's still pretty good though.
11. OF Alfonso Soriano: A quad injury robbed him of a decent chunk of his '07 season - and he still managed 31 homers, 18 steals (and counting) for Lou Piniella's crew.
12. SS Jimmy Rollins: He's improved his power numbers without sacrificing any of his speed, and you can't pick up 30/30 men at Wal-Mart.
13. 1B Prince Fielder: Write this one down: Cecil's son will hit more career homers than his old man.
14. OF Carl Crawford: He's in his prime, there's talent around him for a change, and he contributes across the board statistically.
15. SP Jake Peavy: It's rare that I'll spend a top pick on a pitcher; it's also rare that a guy will contend for a pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA).
The next 10: Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, B.J. Upton, Ichiro Suzuki, Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira
Whether you were a fantasy baseball champ, a serious contender or a nonfactor like the real-life Pirates this year, you should already be thinking about next season. That's why I went ahead and did some extra-early fantasy rankings for '08 mixed leagues and keeper leagues.
Remember, a lot can change between now and then - injuries, free-agent signings, massive steroids scandals, the melting of the polar ice caps and so on. Don't start filling up my inbox with angry e-mails next April if Alex Rodriguez slips on a banana peel and tears his ACL or signs a $300 million contract with the Yomiuri Giants. This is just a helpful guide to get you started, and it's not etched in stone.
1. 3B A-Rod: Whether he stays in New York or uses that opt-out clause to go somewhere else for big money, he's still the most valuable fantasy commodity.
2. 3B Miguel Cabrera: He's already working on a Hall of Fame
resume at age 24. A move to first base is coming if his waistline keepsexpanding - but I like him for who he is inside.
3. 1B Albert Pujols: I fully expect him to revert to his incredible old self in '08. He's too gifted not to, right?
4. SS Hanley Ramirez: Anybody who's capable of 30 homers AND 50 steals can play on my team anytime.
5. 3B David Wright: Just pencil him in for a .300 average, 40 doubles, 20 steals, 100 RBIs ... and about a million marriage proposals.
6. SP Johan Santana: There are few sure things among pitchers, but he's one. And there's a good chance he'll be pitching for a new team at some point in '08 - an enticing thought should he end up on a big-budget contender.
7. SS Jose Reyes: This year's drop-offs in average, homers and RBIs are cause for concern, but his wheels (78 steals through Tuesday) still look fine to me.
8. 2B Chase Utley: The Philadelphia Phillies were smart to lock him up early. He's capable of MVP numbers at a relatively thin position.
9. OF Matt Holliday: He's an offensive force, and as far as I know he'll still be playing his home games in Coors Field next season.
10. 1B Ryan Howard: His skyrocketing strikeout totals are the only thing keeping him from astronomical offensive numbers. He's still pretty good though.
11. OF Alfonso Soriano: A quad injury robbed him of a decent chunk of his '07 season - and he still managed 31 homers, 18 steals (and counting) for Lou Piniella's crew.
12. SS Jimmy Rollins: He's improved his power numbers without sacrificing any of his speed, and you can't pick up 30/30 men at Wal-Mart.
13. 1B Prince Fielder: Write this one down: Cecil's son will hit more career homers than his old man.
14. OF Carl Crawford: He's in his prime, there's talent around him for a change, and he contributes across the board statistically.
15. SP Jake Peavy: It's rare that I'll spend a top pick on a pitcher; it's also rare that a guy will contend for a pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA).
The next 10: Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, B.J. Upton, Ichiro Suzuki, Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira
Diagnosis NFL
They're not chanting "Deuce," they're yelling "Boooooo!"
That's the sound Deuce McAllister owners are making after hearing the bad news that their guy could be out for the remainder of the season. McAllister, the New Orleans Saints' power back, reportedly tore his ACL in Monday night's loss to the Tennessee Titans.
That's Deuce's second ACL tear in three years, for those scoring at home, and although he wasn't enjoying the kind of success we expected (24 carries, 92 yards, zero TDs), it's still a big blow to our fantasy plans.
Since Reggie Bush is no doubt already spoken for in your league - and stands to receive a lot more touches in the coming weeks - you may want to take a look at Aaron Stecker, the man who will replace McAllister in the Saints' lineup. Stecker, however, has never really been a feature back in his eight-year NFL career, and given how clueless the Saints' offense has looked so far, I'd keep your expectations to a minimum.
As most of you are well aware, McAllister isn't the only wounded fantasy star, so let's play doctor (no, not in that way) and check out some other injury situations:
• The St. Louis Rams are falling apart. Marc Bulger is playing hurt, and Steven Jackson has already been ruled out for Week 4 - and possibly longer - with a partially torn groin.
Bulger's two broken ribs and sore knee explain some of the Rams' offensive shortcomings so far, but it looks like he's going to play through the pain. With Jackson out, Bulger might just end up throwing it more, so I'm not much more concerned about him than I already was.
I am more concerned about Jackson, who hasn't been the yardage monster we hoped so far. The obvious remedy is to grab rookie Brian Leonard, last seen running over, around and through opponents at Rutgers. Leonard will move from his fullback position to starting tailback and stands to see a lot of action in Jackson's absence. Add him now.
• Brian Westbrook is messing with us again. The Philadelphia Eagles tailback has an abdominal strain, but don't plant him on your bench unless you officially hear the magic word: "out."
You may recall the perpetually injured Westbrook was questionable for last Sunday's game with a knee ailment, then busted out 110 rushing yards, 111 receiving yards and three total touchdowns. The lesson is to never sit Westbrook unless you know for sure the Eagles are doing the same.
• San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis is out for at least a few weeks with a sprained MCL. He's too talented to drop, but you'll need a capable fill-in for the time being.
• Houston Texans WR Andre Johnson has been ruled out for Week 4, so you'll have to look elsewhere again. And running back Ahman Green is dealing with a sore knee, so if he can't go, Ron Dayne might be worth a start agains the Atlanta Falcons.
• Jake Delhomme is day-to-day with a bum elbow. The Carolina Panthers would turn to David Carr in his absence this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I'd hold off on starting him unless you're really in a pinch. Steve Smith owners should brace themselves for a bumpy ride.
• Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward is doubtful for Week 4 with a sprained knee. Nate Washington would get the start in his place against the Arizona Cardinals, but I'd be more excited about the opportunities it opens up for Santonio Holmes.
That's the sound Deuce McAllister owners are making after hearing the bad news that their guy could be out for the remainder of the season. McAllister, the New Orleans Saints' power back, reportedly tore his ACL in Monday night's loss to the Tennessee Titans.
That's Deuce's second ACL tear in three years, for those scoring at home, and although he wasn't enjoying the kind of success we expected (24 carries, 92 yards, zero TDs), it's still a big blow to our fantasy plans.
Since Reggie Bush is no doubt already spoken for in your league - and stands to receive a lot more touches in the coming weeks - you may want to take a look at Aaron Stecker, the man who will replace McAllister in the Saints' lineup. Stecker, however, has never really been a feature back in his eight-year NFL career, and given how clueless the Saints' offense has looked so far, I'd keep your expectations to a minimum.
As most of you are well aware, McAllister isn't the only wounded fantasy star, so let's play doctor (no, not in that way) and check out some other injury situations:
• The St. Louis Rams are falling apart. Marc Bulger is playing hurt, and Steven Jackson has already been ruled out for Week 4 - and possibly longer - with a partially torn groin.
Bulger's two broken ribs and sore knee explain some of the Rams' offensive shortcomings so far, but it looks like he's going to play through the pain. With Jackson out, Bulger might just end up throwing it more, so I'm not much more concerned about him than I already was.
I am more concerned about Jackson, who hasn't been the yardage monster we hoped so far. The obvious remedy is to grab rookie Brian Leonard, last seen running over, around and through opponents at Rutgers. Leonard will move from his fullback position to starting tailback and stands to see a lot of action in Jackson's absence. Add him now.
• Brian Westbrook is messing with us again. The Philadelphia Eagles tailback has an abdominal strain, but don't plant him on your bench unless you officially hear the magic word: "out."
You may recall the perpetually injured Westbrook was questionable for last Sunday's game with a knee ailment, then busted out 110 rushing yards, 111 receiving yards and three total touchdowns. The lesson is to never sit Westbrook unless you know for sure the Eagles are doing the same.
• San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis is out for at least a few weeks with a sprained MCL. He's too talented to drop, but you'll need a capable fill-in for the time being.
• Houston Texans WR Andre Johnson has been ruled out for Week 4, so you'll have to look elsewhere again. And running back Ahman Green is dealing with a sore knee, so if he can't go, Ron Dayne might be worth a start agains the Atlanta Falcons.
• Jake Delhomme is day-to-day with a bum elbow. The Carolina Panthers would turn to David Carr in his absence this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I'd hold off on starting him unless you're really in a pinch. Steve Smith owners should brace themselves for a bumpy ride.
• Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward is doubtful for Week 4 with a sprained knee. Nate Washington would get the start in his place against the Arizona Cardinals, but I'd be more excited about the opportunities it opens up for Santonio Holmes.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Week 3 Recap - Pt. 2
PACKERS 31, CHARGERS 24: How about that Brett Favre kid, huh? Still slingin' it. Congrats on the all-time TD record. Hope he gets as much pub in the next week or two when he breaks the all-time interceptions thrown record too.
So much for the whole DeShawn Wynn thing, as he only got two carries for nine yards. Brandon Jackson didn't fare much better (six carries, 22 yards), but he did find the end zone late.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are crumbling before our eyes. Another sub-par (by his standards) day for LaDainian Tomlinson (62 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards and 1 TD catch) as the Pack forced the Bolts to throw. Philip River tossed three TDs - including one to Vincent Jackson (who finally justified the hype). Antonio Gates was a man-beast again (11 catches, 113 yards). Never sit him.
RAVENS 26, CARDINALS 23: Lots of field goals, and a Kurt Warner sighting! Matt Leinart had to be pulled, so old man Warner came to the rescue and threw two TDs to Anquan Boldin late to make it interesting. Leinart hasn't lost his job, though.
It's almost unfair that if you have the Ravens defense, you also get rookie return man Yamon Figurs, who blazed a 4.29 in the 40 at the NFL combine. There will be many more of these.
COLTS 30, TEXANS 24: Houston was relying on Samkon Gado and Andre Davis at one point after all the injuries in this one. Andre Johnson was out as expected, and Ahman Green went out with an injury to his troublesome knee. Hard to get excited about those backups when it comes to fantasy.
Nothing crazy on the Colts' side. Joseph Addai scored twice, and Dallas Clark had a TD catch.
CHIEFS 13, VIKINGS 10: Another quiet day for Larry Johnson, which wasn't much of a surprise if you've been paying attention. You know it's eating him up inside, but I don't see the pattern changing until probably Week 6 against the Bengals.
Rookie WR Dwayne Bowe, star of HBO's Hard Knocks, was a bright spot for the Chiefs offense, grabbing his second TD of the season. He's somebody worth a look.
Another rookie, Adrian Peterson, has already arrived as a star: 102 yards rushing, 48 receiving and a score. Chester Taylor, who didn't play again, is already in the rear-view mirror.
JAGUARS 23, BRONCOS 14: Told you to grab Brandon Marshall (133 yards) - now it's probably too late. Travis Henry salvaged a mediocre day with a touchdown. The Jags' Fred Taylor was just OK (84 yards), and Maurice Jones-Drew is looking more and more like a one-year wonder. Greg Jones, of all people, got the Jags' rushing TD.
SEAHAWKS 24, BENGALS 21: All the usual offensive stars were productive in this game, with one exception: Rudi Johnson mustered just nine yards on 17 carries (an unfathomable 0.5 yards a carry) before leaving with a hamstring injury. Kenny Watson was OK filling in (nine rushes, 60 yards, TD), but Rudi says he'll be back in the lineup next week. Problem is, he's facing the Patriots, so I'm looking for other options anyway.
PANTHERS 27, FALCONS 20: Give Joey Harrington credit, he had a really nice day (361 yards, two TDs, no INTs), with Roddy White (127 yards, TD) serving as his main target. Still not buying it, but he deserves credit nonetheless. And the Falcons still have no semblance of a running game, so Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood should still be rotting on your bench.
As for the Panthers, the big news is resurgent Jake Delhomme zinged two TDs before leaving with an elbow injury. Keep an eye on that. I had David Carr tabbed as a deep sleeper with the thought Delhomme might falter, but the veteran has been great, and it'd be a shame if an injury took him out. Anyway, the reason either QB would have value is because of Steve Smith, even though Smith had a mind-boggling one catch for 10 yards Sunday.
And about that Panthers running tandem, DeShaun Foster had the breakout game this time (122 yards, one TD rushing, one receiving), but watch, DeAngelo Williams will probably do the same thing in the next week or two.
COWBOYS 34, BEARS 10: Big games for Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber in what was supposed to be a tough matchup. I'm not so scared of that Chicago D anymore, especially with their players dropping like flies. That's why I don't go reaching for defenses in a draft, injuries have a way of leveling the playing field over the course of a season. They're still a top unit, but it's hard to be so dominant from year to year.
And Julius Jones, thanks for playing, but I've seen just about enough from you.
So much for the whole DeShawn Wynn thing, as he only got two carries for nine yards. Brandon Jackson didn't fare much better (six carries, 22 yards), but he did find the end zone late.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are crumbling before our eyes. Another sub-par (by his standards) day for LaDainian Tomlinson (62 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards and 1 TD catch) as the Pack forced the Bolts to throw. Philip River tossed three TDs - including one to Vincent Jackson (who finally justified the hype). Antonio Gates was a man-beast again (11 catches, 113 yards). Never sit him.
RAVENS 26, CARDINALS 23: Lots of field goals, and a Kurt Warner sighting! Matt Leinart had to be pulled, so old man Warner came to the rescue and threw two TDs to Anquan Boldin late to make it interesting. Leinart hasn't lost his job, though.
It's almost unfair that if you have the Ravens defense, you also get rookie return man Yamon Figurs, who blazed a 4.29 in the 40 at the NFL combine. There will be many more of these.
COLTS 30, TEXANS 24: Houston was relying on Samkon Gado and Andre Davis at one point after all the injuries in this one. Andre Johnson was out as expected, and Ahman Green went out with an injury to his troublesome knee. Hard to get excited about those backups when it comes to fantasy.
Nothing crazy on the Colts' side. Joseph Addai scored twice, and Dallas Clark had a TD catch.
CHIEFS 13, VIKINGS 10: Another quiet day for Larry Johnson, which wasn't much of a surprise if you've been paying attention. You know it's eating him up inside, but I don't see the pattern changing until probably Week 6 against the Bengals.
Rookie WR Dwayne Bowe, star of HBO's Hard Knocks, was a bright spot for the Chiefs offense, grabbing his second TD of the season. He's somebody worth a look.
Another rookie, Adrian Peterson, has already arrived as a star: 102 yards rushing, 48 receiving and a score. Chester Taylor, who didn't play again, is already in the rear-view mirror.
JAGUARS 23, BRONCOS 14: Told you to grab Brandon Marshall (133 yards) - now it's probably too late. Travis Henry salvaged a mediocre day with a touchdown. The Jags' Fred Taylor was just OK (84 yards), and Maurice Jones-Drew is looking more and more like a one-year wonder. Greg Jones, of all people, got the Jags' rushing TD.
SEAHAWKS 24, BENGALS 21: All the usual offensive stars were productive in this game, with one exception: Rudi Johnson mustered just nine yards on 17 carries (an unfathomable 0.5 yards a carry) before leaving with a hamstring injury. Kenny Watson was OK filling in (nine rushes, 60 yards, TD), but Rudi says he'll be back in the lineup next week. Problem is, he's facing the Patriots, so I'm looking for other options anyway.
PANTHERS 27, FALCONS 20: Give Joey Harrington credit, he had a really nice day (361 yards, two TDs, no INTs), with Roddy White (127 yards, TD) serving as his main target. Still not buying it, but he deserves credit nonetheless. And the Falcons still have no semblance of a running game, so Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood should still be rotting on your bench.
As for the Panthers, the big news is resurgent Jake Delhomme zinged two TDs before leaving with an elbow injury. Keep an eye on that. I had David Carr tabbed as a deep sleeper with the thought Delhomme might falter, but the veteran has been great, and it'd be a shame if an injury took him out. Anyway, the reason either QB would have value is because of Steve Smith, even though Smith had a mind-boggling one catch for 10 yards Sunday.
And about that Panthers running tandem, DeShaun Foster had the breakout game this time (122 yards, one TD rushing, one receiving), but watch, DeAngelo Williams will probably do the same thing in the next week or two.
COWBOYS 34, BEARS 10: Big games for Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber in what was supposed to be a tough matchup. I'm not so scared of that Chicago D anymore, especially with their players dropping like flies. That's why I don't go reaching for defenses in a draft, injuries have a way of leveling the playing field over the course of a season. They're still a top unit, but it's hard to be so dominant from year to year.
And Julius Jones, thanks for playing, but I've seen just about enough from you.
Week 3 Recap - Pt. 1
Another wild NFL Sunday, and if you're anything like me, you can't get this damn iPod commercial out of your head:
Anyway, maybe a lengthy blogging will do the trick ...
EAGLES 56, LIONS 21: I knew Donovan McNabb couldn't look so bad for so long. That's the kind of statement game (381 yards, four TDs) that should put your mind at ease if McNabb's your starter. ... Now, Kevin Curtis' 221 yards and three TDs, I'm not sure how to react to that. I just dropped him in one of my leagues, too. He'll still be a useful fantasy player, but I don't see many more three-TD games in the near future.
Sunday was pretty much an encapsulation of Brian Westbrook's career: questionable going into the game with a bad knee, leaves the game with a rib injury, and in between somehow finds a way to get 100 rushing yards AND 100 receiving yards. Drives you crazy, but unless they officially rule him out of a game, you start him.
On the Detroit side, Jon Kitna's still airing it out, with Roy Williams (201 yards, TD) the main target and Shaun McDonald (76 yards, TD) still making an impact. Calvin Johnson left with a bad back, so watch that. And there was even a Kevin Jones sighting! He scored on his first carry but didn't do much else as Detroit was trying to play catch-up. Tatum Bell's days may be numbered though.
Oh, and one more thing .... I don't have a problem with celebrating your franchise's past, but let's not see these unis again, OK? This is the NFL, not the World League.
JETS 31, DOLPHINS 28: This one played out just how I envisioned it. Laveranues Coles caught a TD just like he always does against Miami. Thomas Jones (110 yards) made a contribution, as did Chris Chambers (101 yards). Trent Green and Chad Pennington were serviceable. Ronnie Brown was the biggest surprise - I figured he'd show a pulse, but 112 rushing, 109 receiving and three scores? Suddenly I'm feeling a lot better about him now if he's on my team.
STEELERS 37, 49ERS 16: I think I've got this Mike Tomlin guy's M.O. figured out: Run on offense, stop the run on defense. Willie Parker (133 yards) is going to be a workhorse all year, and opposing RBs are going to have a rough time against these Stillers. Ask Frank Gore (14 carries, 39 yards).
A bunch of guys got beat up in this one: Gore had to have X-rays on that broken hand of his (they were negative), Hines Ward left with a "bone bruise" on his leg, and Vernon Davis left with a sprained right knee. You'll want to check on each of those injuries during the week.
PATRIOTS 38, BILLS 7: You mean to tell me the Pats couldn't give up one lousy garbage TD in this one, just to make the final score of all three of their games so far 38-14? How cool would that have been?
Anyway, regarding Randy Moss: I'm a believer. Start him until further notice. Also, good to see Laurence Maroney (103 yards) and Ben Watson (TD) getting involved. Sammy Morris (46 yards, TD) refuses to go away.
On the Buffalo side, things aren't so happy-go-lucky. JP Losman left with a "significant" knee injury; I know you probably weren't starting him (certainly not in this game, I hope!), but you could make a case for drafting him as your backup. Now you might as well look elsewhere ... ditto for Lee Evans (one catch, seven yards), unless he has some crazy chemistry with rookie backup Trent Edwards we don't know about. Somebody put that guy's face on a milk carton or something ... Peerless Price is outperforming him for cryin' out loud!
BUCS 24, RAMS 3: Who's Earnest Graham (eight carries, 75 yards, two rushing TDs)? Well, he used to be known as "Mr. August" in Bucs-land for being a training-camp hero who never really did much when the real games actually started. But before you go all Buc-wild (get it?) and pick him up, realize he didn't really do his damage until Cadillac Williams was on the sidelines in the fourth quarter after he had already a) scored a TD, b) fumbled and c) hurt his sore ribs. I don't think Caddy's in a lot of danger, even though Jon Gruden says he wants to get Graham more involved. He said the same thing about Mark Clayton, too.
The Rams, meanwhile, are falling apart on the offensive line, and it's killing Marc Bulger (116 yards, 0 TDs, three INTs) and everyone else along with him. Steven Jackson cracked 100 yards for the first time but it didn't come easy. I'm officially worried.
GIANTS 24, REDSKINS 17: A lot of just-OK offensive performances all around, so I'll focus on the RB situations. Derrick Ward (94 yards) is still hanging in there for the G-Men with Brandon Jacobs on the sidelines. Reuben Droughns scored twice in the second half after being inserted with the Giants on the goal line, but I still don't think he'll get the consistent touches to warrant a starting spot at this point. For the Skins, Clinton Portis was the go-to guy as expected, but Ladell Betts has really dropped off (seven carries, nine yards; one catch, 13 yards) from what looked like an equal timeshare. Betts had a chance to tie the game up at the end but couldn't cross the goal line. I'm not starting him again unless I have to, or unless the matchup really floats my boat.
RAIDERS 26, BROWNS 24: Derek Anderson, I hope you enjoyed that ride on Cloud 9. Nothing like a devastating loss to the Raiders to bring you back down here with us mortals. At least it was nice to see the old Jamal Lewis (15 carries, 56 yards) we know and love. LaMont Jordan, meanwhile, deserves some love (121 yards, TD). ... And it looks like we've got a QB controversy brewing in Oakland between Josh McCown, who got hurt again, and Daunte Culpepper, who rallied the troops. I'll let somebody else fight for those scraps, thanks.
Anyway, maybe a lengthy blogging will do the trick ...
EAGLES 56, LIONS 21: I knew Donovan McNabb couldn't look so bad for so long. That's the kind of statement game (381 yards, four TDs) that should put your mind at ease if McNabb's your starter. ... Now, Kevin Curtis' 221 yards and three TDs, I'm not sure how to react to that. I just dropped him in one of my leagues, too. He'll still be a useful fantasy player, but I don't see many more three-TD games in the near future.
Sunday was pretty much an encapsulation of Brian Westbrook's career: questionable going into the game with a bad knee, leaves the game with a rib injury, and in between somehow finds a way to get 100 rushing yards AND 100 receiving yards. Drives you crazy, but unless they officially rule him out of a game, you start him.
On the Detroit side, Jon Kitna's still airing it out, with Roy Williams (201 yards, TD) the main target and Shaun McDonald (76 yards, TD) still making an impact. Calvin Johnson left with a bad back, so watch that. And there was even a Kevin Jones sighting! He scored on his first carry but didn't do much else as Detroit was trying to play catch-up. Tatum Bell's days may be numbered though.
Oh, and one more thing .... I don't have a problem with celebrating your franchise's past, but let's not see these unis again, OK? This is the NFL, not the World League.
JETS 31, DOLPHINS 28: This one played out just how I envisioned it. Laveranues Coles caught a TD just like he always does against Miami. Thomas Jones (110 yards) made a contribution, as did Chris Chambers (101 yards). Trent Green and Chad Pennington were serviceable. Ronnie Brown was the biggest surprise - I figured he'd show a pulse, but 112 rushing, 109 receiving and three scores? Suddenly I'm feeling a lot better about him now if he's on my team.
STEELERS 37, 49ERS 16: I think I've got this Mike Tomlin guy's M.O. figured out: Run on offense, stop the run on defense. Willie Parker (133 yards) is going to be a workhorse all year, and opposing RBs are going to have a rough time against these Stillers. Ask Frank Gore (14 carries, 39 yards).
A bunch of guys got beat up in this one: Gore had to have X-rays on that broken hand of his (they were negative), Hines Ward left with a "bone bruise" on his leg, and Vernon Davis left with a sprained right knee. You'll want to check on each of those injuries during the week.
PATRIOTS 38, BILLS 7: You mean to tell me the Pats couldn't give up one lousy garbage TD in this one, just to make the final score of all three of their games so far 38-14? How cool would that have been?
Anyway, regarding Randy Moss: I'm a believer. Start him until further notice. Also, good to see Laurence Maroney (103 yards) and Ben Watson (TD) getting involved. Sammy Morris (46 yards, TD) refuses to go away.
On the Buffalo side, things aren't so happy-go-lucky. JP Losman left with a "significant" knee injury; I know you probably weren't starting him (certainly not in this game, I hope!), but you could make a case for drafting him as your backup. Now you might as well look elsewhere ... ditto for Lee Evans (one catch, seven yards), unless he has some crazy chemistry with rookie backup Trent Edwards we don't know about. Somebody put that guy's face on a milk carton or something ... Peerless Price is outperforming him for cryin' out loud!
BUCS 24, RAMS 3: Who's Earnest Graham (eight carries, 75 yards, two rushing TDs)? Well, he used to be known as "Mr. August" in Bucs-land for being a training-camp hero who never really did much when the real games actually started. But before you go all Buc-wild (get it?) and pick him up, realize he didn't really do his damage until Cadillac Williams was on the sidelines in the fourth quarter after he had already a) scored a TD, b) fumbled and c) hurt his sore ribs. I don't think Caddy's in a lot of danger, even though Jon Gruden says he wants to get Graham more involved. He said the same thing about Mark Clayton, too.
The Rams, meanwhile, are falling apart on the offensive line, and it's killing Marc Bulger (116 yards, 0 TDs, three INTs) and everyone else along with him. Steven Jackson cracked 100 yards for the first time but it didn't come easy. I'm officially worried.
GIANTS 24, REDSKINS 17: A lot of just-OK offensive performances all around, so I'll focus on the RB situations. Derrick Ward (94 yards) is still hanging in there for the G-Men with Brandon Jacobs on the sidelines. Reuben Droughns scored twice in the second half after being inserted with the Giants on the goal line, but I still don't think he'll get the consistent touches to warrant a starting spot at this point. For the Skins, Clinton Portis was the go-to guy as expected, but Ladell Betts has really dropped off (seven carries, nine yards; one catch, 13 yards) from what looked like an equal timeshare. Betts had a chance to tie the game up at the end but couldn't cross the goal line. I'm not starting him again unless I have to, or unless the matchup really floats my boat.
RAIDERS 26, BROWNS 24: Derek Anderson, I hope you enjoyed that ride on Cloud 9. Nothing like a devastating loss to the Raiders to bring you back down here with us mortals. At least it was nice to see the old Jamal Lewis (15 carries, 56 yards) we know and love. LaMont Jordan, meanwhile, deserves some love (121 yards, TD). ... And it looks like we've got a QB controversy brewing in Oakland between Josh McCown, who got hurt again, and Daunte Culpepper, who rallied the troops. I'll let somebody else fight for those scraps, thanks.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Sit/start: Week 3
START
Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch need to be in your lineup against Cincinnati after seeing what the Browns did to the Bengals last week.
Jason Campbell hasn't been much more than a "keep-you-in-the-game" QB, but he's gaining confidence, has built a rapport with TE Chris Cooley, has some other vertical weapons in Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El and best of all, he's facing a Giants secondary that couldn't stop a Pee Wee team. Start Campbell if you're strapped at QB.
Braylon Edwards had the kind of game (career-high 146 yards, two TDs) many think he's capable of on a more consistent basis. Of course, that hinges on having a consistent QB. Not sure if Derek Anderson is that guy, but he's flying high right now and the Browns face a struggling Oakland secondary.
Laveranues Coles has a history of hurting the Dolphins, scoring nine TDs in 11 career games against Miami. It also looks like he might get buddy Chad Pennington back this week, too.
Thomas Jones is another Jet to start this week. He's been just average so far, but the Dolphins are ranked next to last in run defense and pale in comparison to Jones' first two opponents, the Ravens and Pats. This is the week to start collecting on your investment.
SIT
Julius Jones just hasn't stepped it up as Marion Barber encroaches on his job. He's only a fringe fantasy starter at this point, and I certainly don't expect much against Chicago.
Ronnie Brown has been equally disappointing. He does face the Jets, who have been below-average against the run and against whom he had two of his best games last year ... but I don't know if I'm willing to risk another dismal 30-yard effort unless I'm really in a pinch.
Matt Leinart hasn't been anything special so far, and Baltimore's defense should neutralize his passing targets this week. Don't expect much.
Lee Evans has been MIA so far (four catches for 22 yards). He was blanketed by New England last year in their two matchups (3 for 35 yards). Do you need any more evidence to bench him this week?
Donte' Stallworth has been a similar WR bust through two games (three catches, 38 yards) and not the game-breaker many envisioned. He's always been inconsistent, however, and one of these days, New England is going to decide to feature him, and he'll go off. But I'm not willing to take that risk until I see some results.
Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch need to be in your lineup against Cincinnati after seeing what the Browns did to the Bengals last week.
Jason Campbell hasn't been much more than a "keep-you-in-the-game" QB, but he's gaining confidence, has built a rapport with TE Chris Cooley, has some other vertical weapons in Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El and best of all, he's facing a Giants secondary that couldn't stop a Pee Wee team. Start Campbell if you're strapped at QB.
Braylon Edwards had the kind of game (career-high 146 yards, two TDs) many think he's capable of on a more consistent basis. Of course, that hinges on having a consistent QB. Not sure if Derek Anderson is that guy, but he's flying high right now and the Browns face a struggling Oakland secondary.
Laveranues Coles has a history of hurting the Dolphins, scoring nine TDs in 11 career games against Miami. It also looks like he might get buddy Chad Pennington back this week, too.
Thomas Jones is another Jet to start this week. He's been just average so far, but the Dolphins are ranked next to last in run defense and pale in comparison to Jones' first two opponents, the Ravens and Pats. This is the week to start collecting on your investment.
SIT
Julius Jones just hasn't stepped it up as Marion Barber encroaches on his job. He's only a fringe fantasy starter at this point, and I certainly don't expect much against Chicago.
Ronnie Brown has been equally disappointing. He does face the Jets, who have been below-average against the run and against whom he had two of his best games last year ... but I don't know if I'm willing to risk another dismal 30-yard effort unless I'm really in a pinch.
Matt Leinart hasn't been anything special so far, and Baltimore's defense should neutralize his passing targets this week. Don't expect much.
Lee Evans has been MIA so far (four catches for 22 yards). He was blanketed by New England last year in their two matchups (3 for 35 yards). Do you need any more evidence to bench him this week?
Donte' Stallworth has been a similar WR bust through two games (three catches, 38 yards) and not the game-breaker many envisioned. He's always been inconsistent, however, and one of these days, New England is going to decide to feature him, and he'll go off. But I'm not willing to take that risk until I see some results.
Hot pickups - Week 3
• RB DeShawn Wynn, Green Bay Packers: Wynn looked better than fellow rookie Brandon Jackson, Green Bay's starter, in Week 2 against the G-Men, scoring twice. There's been some media speculation he could take the starting job from Jackson, who hasn't been very impressive.
I'm not sure Wynn will displace Jackson outright at this point, and even if he did, I don't think the Pack will give up on their second-round pick in favor of Wynn, a seventh-rounder. We've also got to consider Vernand Morency, working his way back from injury. And his breakout game came against the Giants, who are putrid.
Still, Wynn has potential, even if he's sharing touches, and there isn't a proven No. 1 RB in that backfield. Think of him as a fourth RB with some upside. FOUR STARS (OUT OF FIVE)
• RB Sammy Morris, New England Patriots: He's getting 10 carries a game in a good offense, and his one TD is more than starter Laurence Maroney has. He's also an experienced back with five-TD and six-TD seasons on his resume. While the Patriots have a history of making nondescript guys into offensive stars for a week or two - then abandoning them - Morris' decent workload, compared with Maroney's slow start, are too much to ignore, especially in leagues that are thin on running back talent in the free-agent pool. FOUR STARS.
• QB Byron Leftwich, Atlanta Falcons: Veteran QBs with starting experience are pretty prized in the NFL, so Atlanta was wise to sign Leftwich. Falcons starter Joey Harrington has been his usual awful self, and backup Chris Redman isn't much to be excited about. Though Leftwich never fulfilled his promise in Jacksonville (fantasy or otherwise), I fully expect him to be starting for the Falcons before long, and he will be working under a supposed offensive genius in Bobby Petrino.
Leftwich won't be much of a fantasy difference-maker - he never really has been - but he should be a more-than-capable spot starter or bye-week fill-in. It's not often you find guys like that on the waiver wire at this point in the season, especially in 12-team leagues. FOUR STARS.
• WR Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos: The second-year receiver is a big target who's caught 10 balls and a TD through two games. He's still building on the potential he showed in December last season.
Broncos QB Jay Cutler hasn't been John Elway yet, and Javon Walker and Brandon Stokley are still around to hog the ball. But Marshall is coming along as a red zone threat, and Cutler's still improving. The kid was a popular sleeper pick this year, and I agreed. He wouldn't have lasted long as a free agent in any of the leagues I'm in. FOUR STARS.
• WR Jacoby Jones, Houston Texans: The speedy 6-3 rookie from Lane College in Tennesse turned some heads with a good preseason and landed the Texans' No. 3 receiver spot behind Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. With Johnson already ruled out for Week 3 against Indianapolis, Jones gets his chance to start.
With QB Matt Schaub looking pretty good so far, this could be Jones' chance to shine. If you're looking to roll the dice this week at your WR spot, this might be the guy. FOUR STARS.
• QB Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns: Whenever a guy throws five touchdown passes, you've got to show some respect. Anderson's assault on the Bengals secondary was pretty surprising, and now he gets Oakland as an encore.
I fully expect Anderson to come back down to earth soon and eventually hand over the keys to Brady Quinn at some point this season. But if you're really desperate at QB, and if there was ever a time to insert Anderson into a starting fantasy lineup, this would be the week. THREE STARS.
• WR Shaun McDonald, Detroit Lions: McDonald followed up his strong 2007 debut against Oakland (six catches, 90 yards, TD) with another nice effort in Week 2 against Minnesota (seven catches, 71 yards). Even with Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and Mike Furrey in the mix, McDonald is getting more than his share of the action in Mike Martz's sandlot offense.
I'm still skeptical about this whole "Lions are winning 10 games" deal that Jon Kitna started. I'm not sure that the good times will really last. But Detroit is 2-0 after all, and there are an awful lot of balls to be caught. If McDonald does it again this week, I'll be more of a believer. THREE STARS.
I'm not sure Wynn will displace Jackson outright at this point, and even if he did, I don't think the Pack will give up on their second-round pick in favor of Wynn, a seventh-rounder. We've also got to consider Vernand Morency, working his way back from injury. And his breakout game came against the Giants, who are putrid.
Still, Wynn has potential, even if he's sharing touches, and there isn't a proven No. 1 RB in that backfield. Think of him as a fourth RB with some upside. FOUR STARS (OUT OF FIVE)
• RB Sammy Morris, New England Patriots: He's getting 10 carries a game in a good offense, and his one TD is more than starter Laurence Maroney has. He's also an experienced back with five-TD and six-TD seasons on his resume. While the Patriots have a history of making nondescript guys into offensive stars for a week or two - then abandoning them - Morris' decent workload, compared with Maroney's slow start, are too much to ignore, especially in leagues that are thin on running back talent in the free-agent pool. FOUR STARS.
• QB Byron Leftwich, Atlanta Falcons: Veteran QBs with starting experience are pretty prized in the NFL, so Atlanta was wise to sign Leftwich. Falcons starter Joey Harrington has been his usual awful self, and backup Chris Redman isn't much to be excited about. Though Leftwich never fulfilled his promise in Jacksonville (fantasy or otherwise), I fully expect him to be starting for the Falcons before long, and he will be working under a supposed offensive genius in Bobby Petrino.
Leftwich won't be much of a fantasy difference-maker - he never really has been - but he should be a more-than-capable spot starter or bye-week fill-in. It's not often you find guys like that on the waiver wire at this point in the season, especially in 12-team leagues. FOUR STARS.
• WR Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos: The second-year receiver is a big target who's caught 10 balls and a TD through two games. He's still building on the potential he showed in December last season.
Broncos QB Jay Cutler hasn't been John Elway yet, and Javon Walker and Brandon Stokley are still around to hog the ball. But Marshall is coming along as a red zone threat, and Cutler's still improving. The kid was a popular sleeper pick this year, and I agreed. He wouldn't have lasted long as a free agent in any of the leagues I'm in. FOUR STARS.
• WR Jacoby Jones, Houston Texans: The speedy 6-3 rookie from Lane College in Tennesse turned some heads with a good preseason and landed the Texans' No. 3 receiver spot behind Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. With Johnson already ruled out for Week 3 against Indianapolis, Jones gets his chance to start.
With QB Matt Schaub looking pretty good so far, this could be Jones' chance to shine. If you're looking to roll the dice this week at your WR spot, this might be the guy. FOUR STARS.
• QB Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns: Whenever a guy throws five touchdown passes, you've got to show some respect. Anderson's assault on the Bengals secondary was pretty surprising, and now he gets Oakland as an encore.
I fully expect Anderson to come back down to earth soon and eventually hand over the keys to Brady Quinn at some point this season. But if you're really desperate at QB, and if there was ever a time to insert Anderson into a starting fantasy lineup, this would be the week. THREE STARS.
• WR Shaun McDonald, Detroit Lions: McDonald followed up his strong 2007 debut against Oakland (six catches, 90 yards, TD) with another nice effort in Week 2 against Minnesota (seven catches, 71 yards). Even with Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and Mike Furrey in the mix, McDonald is getting more than his share of the action in Mike Martz's sandlot offense.
I'm still skeptical about this whole "Lions are winning 10 games" deal that Jon Kitna started. I'm not sure that the good times will really last. But Detroit is 2-0 after all, and there are an awful lot of balls to be caught. If McDonald does it again this week, I'll be more of a believer. THREE STARS.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Where have all the stud RBs gone?
Week 3 is a big week for the Big Three.
The three running backs I had slotted at the top of my preseason fantasy rankings – LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson – have a lot of explaining to do. None of them have lived up to the hype so far this year, and at the risk of making me (and lots of other fantasy “experts” and owners) look silly, they need to get their acts together Sunday.
The outputs of these three supposed studs are simply unacceptable given their standing as first-round fantasy picks. Together, they’ve combined for 284 rushing yards this year – or just 68 more than Jamal Lewis’ Week 2 total.
In other words, they stink.
But is there any hope for recovery? Or should we start making contingency plans? Well, before you start a letter-writing campaign to get Tiki Barber to reconsider this whole TV thing, let’s take a closer look at each bumbling back’s situation:
• Tomlinson’s shortcomings are the most puzzling of the bunch, and perhaps in all of fantasy football. The consensus No. 1 pick has gained just 68 yards on the ground with an average of 1.9 yards a carry. Those numbers are jaw-dropping when you consider Tomlinson’s recent dominance and the 4.4 yards a carry he’s averaged in his career. The only saving grace is Tomlinson’s two touchdowns in Week 1 (one of which he threw) - but still, this is not the LT2 we’ve come to know and love.
What’s changed since last year? The most notable difference is the guy calling the shots on the sidelines for the San Diego Chargers, Norv Turner. The offensive guru doesn’t exactly have a sparkling reputation as a head coach - which may explain the Bolts’ 0-2 record but doesn’t give us much insight into LT’s struggles. Turner’s always been a friend to running backs, whether it’s Frank Gore in 2006, Ricky Williams in his heyday or Emmitt Smith in his glory days.
So what gives? Well, in Tomlinson’s defense, he’s faced two of the league’s toughest defenses (Chicago Bears, New England Patriots) to open the season – the football equivalent of hitting back-to-back speed bumps at 70 mph. My gut tells me the old Tomlinson is going to start showing up, beginning Sunday against a Green Bay Packers defense that is just about average against the run. He’s simply too dangerous to be held in check for an extended period of time, and the schedule soon gets considerably easier.
• Next on our list is Jackson, who’s been held to 60 yards or fewer in two games and has yet to stumble upon the end zone. He was plagued by fumblitis in Week 1, losing the ball twice against the Carolina Panthers – which was odd for a back who coughed it up only twice all of last season. And his involvement in the passing game has been less than expected (four catches for 39 yards).
A popular explanation for Jackson’s lackluster start has been the season-ending in
jury to Orlando Pace, the St. Louis Rams’ cornerstone left tackle. But we must keep in mind Pace also missed the final seven games of ’06, and Jackson averaged 106 yards a game on the ground during that period.
For now, I’m considering Jackson’s early-season disappointment a freak occurrence. If I have him on my team, I’m starting him this week against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense of which I’m still skeptical; if I don’t own Jackson, I’m sending out a trade offer. He’s going to snap out of it soon.
• Johnson’s case is perhaps the most troublesome of the trio. There was widespread disagreement on the Kansas City Chiefs star’s preseason value, based on a number of factors that have been touched on ad nauseum. I had a sunny outlook for LJ, ranking him third overall, and his 98 rushing yards this season have rained on my parade. The fact that they came against what looks like a much-improved Houston Texans squad and the aforementioned Bears make me feel a little better, but taking into consideration all the preseason question marks, there’s cause for concern.
Then again, if I took LJ with my first pick, I was well aware of the risk, and I was backing him up with a strong No. 2 running back and looking for good depth in the later rounds. Hopefully you did the same.
You’ll have to weather the storm for a few more weeks as Johnson meets the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday before heading to San Diego. You probably won’t get equal value in a trade at this point, and grabbing a one-week wonder off waivers is never a sure thing (as Chris Brown owners can attest). Hold onto LJ and hope for better days ahead.
The three running backs I had slotted at the top of my preseason fantasy rankings – LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson – have a lot of explaining to do. None of them have lived up to the hype so far this year, and at the risk of making me (and lots of other fantasy “experts” and owners) look silly, they need to get their acts together Sunday.
The outputs of these three supposed studs are simply unacceptable given their standing as first-round fantasy picks. Together, they’ve combined for 284 rushing yards this year – or just 68 more than Jamal Lewis’ Week 2 total.
In other words, they stink.
But is there any hope for recovery? Or should we start making contingency plans? Well, before you start a letter-writing campaign to get Tiki Barber to reconsider this whole TV thing, let’s take a closer look at each bumbling back’s situation:
• Tomlinson’s shortcomings are the most puzzling of the bunch, and perhaps in all of fantasy football. The consensus No. 1 pick has gained just 68 yards on the ground with an average of 1.9 yards a carry. Those numbers are jaw-dropping when you consider Tomlinson’s recent dominance and the 4.4 yards a carry he’s averaged in his career. The only saving grace is Tomlinson’s two touchdowns in Week 1 (one of which he threw) - but still, this is not the LT2 we’ve come to know and love.
What’s changed since last year? The most notable difference is the guy calling the shots on the sidelines for the San Diego Chargers, Norv Turner. The offensive guru doesn’t exactly have a sparkling reputation as a head coach - which may explain the Bolts’ 0-2 record but doesn’t give us much insight into LT’s struggles. Turner’s always been a friend to running backs, whether it’s Frank Gore in 2006, Ricky Williams in his heyday or Emmitt Smith in his glory days.So what gives? Well, in Tomlinson’s defense, he’s faced two of the league’s toughest defenses (Chicago Bears, New England Patriots) to open the season – the football equivalent of hitting back-to-back speed bumps at 70 mph. My gut tells me the old Tomlinson is going to start showing up, beginning Sunday against a Green Bay Packers defense that is just about average against the run. He’s simply too dangerous to be held in check for an extended period of time, and the schedule soon gets considerably easier.
• Next on our list is Jackson, who’s been held to 60 yards or fewer in two games and has yet to stumble upon the end zone. He was plagued by fumblitis in Week 1, losing the ball twice against the Carolina Panthers – which was odd for a back who coughed it up only twice all of last season. And his involvement in the passing game has been less than expected (four catches for 39 yards).
A popular explanation for Jackson’s lackluster start has been the season-ending in
jury to Orlando Pace, the St. Louis Rams’ cornerstone left tackle. But we must keep in mind Pace also missed the final seven games of ’06, and Jackson averaged 106 yards a game on the ground during that period.For now, I’m considering Jackson’s early-season disappointment a freak occurrence. If I have him on my team, I’m starting him this week against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense of which I’m still skeptical; if I don’t own Jackson, I’m sending out a trade offer. He’s going to snap out of it soon.
• Johnson’s case is perhaps the most troublesome of the trio. There was widespread disagreement on the Kansas City Chiefs star’s preseason value, based on a number of factors that have been touched on ad nauseum. I had a sunny outlook for LJ, ranking him third overall, and his 98 rushing yards this season have rained on my parade. The fact that they came against what looks like a much-improved Houston Texans squad and the aforementioned Bears make me feel a little better, but taking into consideration all the preseason question marks, there’s cause for concern.
Then again, if I took LJ with my first pick, I was well aware of the risk, and I was backing him up with a strong No. 2 running back and looking for good depth in the later rounds. Hopefully you did the same.You’ll have to weather the storm for a few more weeks as Johnson meets the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday before heading to San Diego. You probably won’t get equal value in a trade at this point, and grabbing a one-week wonder off waivers is never a sure thing (as Chris Brown owners can attest). Hold onto LJ and hope for better days ahead.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Week 2 Sunday recap
Thoughts from Sunday's games:
49ERS 17, RAMS 16: Is it panic time for the Rams offense? I didn't think the loss of Orlando Pace would be such a big deal, but Marc Bulger was sacked six times. He still managed an OK day (368 yards, 1 TD), but he's capable of much more. Torry Holt got a TD, but Isaac Bruce got the big yards (145). And Steven Jackson had another so-so game (60 yards). I'm not pressing the panic button yet, but they better get that O-line sorted out right quick. On the flip side, Frank Gore hit paydirt twice, just days after losing his mom to kidney disease.
PATRIOTS 38, CHARGERS 14: Sunday night's marquee matchup turned out to be a dud. Randy Moss (105 yards, 2 TDs) is making me eat crow. I still think he'll let you down at some point - but maybe I'm just mad I didn't draft him. Tom Brady (three TDs) is a must-start now in case you hadn't realized. LaDainian Tomlinson (43 yards) was mortal, but don't get discouraged, he just hit two brick walls the first two weeks of the season. Antonio Gates (7 catches, 77 yards, TD) did what he always does. Preseason favorites Vincent Jackson (4 catches, 53 yards) and Donte' Stallworth (2 catches, 19 yards) still haven't broken out, and I'm not surprised. Sammy Morris (10 carries, 51 yards, TD) is making me ill if I'm a Laurence Maroney owner.
PACKERS 35, GIANTS 13: Much like our lesson from the Bengals-Browns game, we've also learned to start anybody that's facing the Giants' "defense" (I use the term loosely). They can even make Brett Favre (three TDs) look like a champ. Eli Manning played, which is a good sign if you're counting on him in really deep leagues. RB Derrick Ward (15 carries, 90 yards) was serviceable in his first NFL start, and Reuben Droughns was nowhere to be found in the stat sheet like I warned you. The real head-turner should be DeShawn Wynn, who scored twice (a 6-yard run and a 38-yard scamper) and outgained teammate Brandon Jackson on seven fewer carries. Wynn was last seen getting called out by Urban Meyer for not stepping up as the national champion Florida Gators' starting tailback, and he has a significant injury history, but maybe he's a player in the Pack's backfield with Noah Herron and Vernand Morency out of the mix for the time being.
STEELERS 26, BILLS 3: Paging Lee Evans ... Lee Evans (2 catches for 17 yards), please report to the stadium, the 2007 season has begun ... Willie Parker scored late in the fourth quarter to make a nice day (126 yards) even nicer. Other than that, good day for owners of Jeff Reed (4 FGs) and not much else to report.
BUCCANEERS 31, SAINTS 14: I seem to remember telling you to start Joey Galloway (135 yards, two TDs). Did you listen? I also thought New Orleans' offense would snap out of it this week. Guess you can't win 'em all, and I don't really know what's up with that crew. ... Cadillac Williams scored twice on short runs, an area in which he's never really excelled before and where Mike Alstott probably would have gotten the call in years past. A very encouraging sign. I was happy to drop Chester Taylor and scoop up Caddy earlier this week on waivers from an impatient owner who dropped him.
TEXANS 34, PANTHERS 21: Ol' Jake Delhomme's still got some fight in him (three TDs) like I knew he did. It helps having a healthy Steve "Stud" Smith, who caught all three scores. Andre Johnson almost matched him (120 yards, two TDs). No headway in the DeShaun Foster (nine carries, 22 yards) vs. DeAngelo Williams (eight carries, 31 yards) race, which I'm happy to avoid.
JAGUARS 13, FALCONS 7: Not much to see here. The running backs were all passable, nothing more, and the QBs mediocre. Enjoying Maurice Jones-Drew (11 carries, 31 yards; three catches, 36 yards) so far? Move along.
COLTS 22, TITANS 20: How did that Chris Brown waiver pickup work out for you? He was outgained by LenDale White (64 yards, TD) AND Vince Young (53 yards). That one had "sucker" written all over it.
CARDINALS 23, SEAHAWKS 20: Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Edgerrin James (128 yards, TD). Deion Branch (7 catches, 122 yards) with a big effort after last week's 0-fer. And the QBs were so-so, with just one TD apiece. I was expecting a little more.
LIONS 20, VIKINGS 17 (OT): Adrian Peterson got the bulk of the work with Taylor out but didn't go crazy like last week (20 carries, 66 yards, plus four catches, 52 yards). On the other side, Tatum Bell (nine carries, 14 yards) was a joke, clearing the way for a triumphant return by Kevin Jones sometime soon. The Detroit WR situation got a little clearer, with Roy Williams (111 yards, TD) acting as headliner, Calvin Johnson scoring for the second straight game and wild-card Shaun McDonald factoring in once again, equaling Williams for a team-high seven catches.
COWBOYS 37, DOLPHINS 20: Chris Chambers checked in with a nice day (nine catches, 109 yards) as I thought he could, and that was all she wrote for the Fins. Ronnie Brown (11 carres, 33 yards) was a nonfactor again - time to worry. And in the Cowboys backfield, you know the drill: Marion Barber (15 carries, 89 yards, two TDs) can find the end zone, Julius Jones (15 carries, 32 yards) cannot.
RAVENS 20, JETS 13: Willis McGahee (26 carries, 97 yards, TD) passed his first post-Jonathan Ogden test. Thomas Jones (25 carries, 67 yards) sputtered again, but better days are ahead. Jerricho Cotchery (seven catches, 165 yards) is busting out; Mark Clayton (one catch, minus-1 yards) is not.
BEARS 20, CHIEFS 10: A confidence-building, 101-yard effort for Cedric Benson was good to see, and the other Adrian Peterson was a nonfactor. Larry Johnson got bottled up again (55 yards), which is getting a little troublesome. Bears D comes through again thanks to this guy. No words are necessary for Rex Grossman.
BRONCOS 23, RAIDERS 20 (OT): How did that Ronald Curry waiver pickup treat you (two catches, 12 yards)? Remember, don't overreact when a WR blows up one week, especially when he faces Denver the following week. ... Josh McCown came back to his senses in a hurry (8 of 16, 73 yards, one TD, three INTs). Fine days on the ground for Travis Henry (128 yards) and LaMont Jordan (159 yards) - they are playas. Javon Walker carved out a good 101-yard day, while Brandon Marshall (five catches, 82 yards) teetered on the brink of the breakout some think he's capable of.
49ERS 17, RAMS 16: Is it panic time for the Rams offense? I didn't think the loss of Orlando Pace would be such a big deal, but Marc Bulger was sacked six times. He still managed an OK day (368 yards, 1 TD), but he's capable of much more. Torry Holt got a TD, but Isaac Bruce got the big yards (145). And Steven Jackson had another so-so game (60 yards). I'm not pressing the panic button yet, but they better get that O-line sorted out right quick. On the flip side, Frank Gore hit paydirt twice, just days after losing his mom to kidney disease.
PATRIOTS 38, CHARGERS 14: Sunday night's marquee matchup turned out to be a dud. Randy Moss (105 yards, 2 TDs) is making me eat crow. I still think he'll let you down at some point - but maybe I'm just mad I didn't draft him. Tom Brady (three TDs) is a must-start now in case you hadn't realized. LaDainian Tomlinson (43 yards) was mortal, but don't get discouraged, he just hit two brick walls the first two weeks of the season. Antonio Gates (7 catches, 77 yards, TD) did what he always does. Preseason favorites Vincent Jackson (4 catches, 53 yards) and Donte' Stallworth (2 catches, 19 yards) still haven't broken out, and I'm not surprised. Sammy Morris (10 carries, 51 yards, TD) is making me ill if I'm a Laurence Maroney owner.
PACKERS 35, GIANTS 13: Much like our lesson from the Bengals-Browns game, we've also learned to start anybody that's facing the Giants' "defense" (I use the term loosely). They can even make Brett Favre (three TDs) look like a champ. Eli Manning played, which is a good sign if you're counting on him in really deep leagues. RB Derrick Ward (15 carries, 90 yards) was serviceable in his first NFL start, and Reuben Droughns was nowhere to be found in the stat sheet like I warned you. The real head-turner should be DeShawn Wynn, who scored twice (a 6-yard run and a 38-yard scamper) and outgained teammate Brandon Jackson on seven fewer carries. Wynn was last seen getting called out by Urban Meyer for not stepping up as the national champion Florida Gators' starting tailback, and he has a significant injury history, but maybe he's a player in the Pack's backfield with Noah Herron and Vernand Morency out of the mix for the time being.
STEELERS 26, BILLS 3: Paging Lee Evans ... Lee Evans (2 catches for 17 yards), please report to the stadium, the 2007 season has begun ... Willie Parker scored late in the fourth quarter to make a nice day (126 yards) even nicer. Other than that, good day for owners of Jeff Reed (4 FGs) and not much else to report.
BUCCANEERS 31, SAINTS 14: I seem to remember telling you to start Joey Galloway (135 yards, two TDs). Did you listen? I also thought New Orleans' offense would snap out of it this week. Guess you can't win 'em all, and I don't really know what's up with that crew. ... Cadillac Williams scored twice on short runs, an area in which he's never really excelled before and where Mike Alstott probably would have gotten the call in years past. A very encouraging sign. I was happy to drop Chester Taylor and scoop up Caddy earlier this week on waivers from an impatient owner who dropped him.
TEXANS 34, PANTHERS 21: Ol' Jake Delhomme's still got some fight in him (three TDs) like I knew he did. It helps having a healthy Steve "Stud" Smith, who caught all three scores. Andre Johnson almost matched him (120 yards, two TDs). No headway in the DeShaun Foster (nine carries, 22 yards) vs. DeAngelo Williams (eight carries, 31 yards) race, which I'm happy to avoid.
JAGUARS 13, FALCONS 7: Not much to see here. The running backs were all passable, nothing more, and the QBs mediocre. Enjoying Maurice Jones-Drew (11 carries, 31 yards; three catches, 36 yards) so far? Move along.
COLTS 22, TITANS 20: How did that Chris Brown waiver pickup work out for you? He was outgained by LenDale White (64 yards, TD) AND Vince Young (53 yards). That one had "sucker" written all over it.
CARDINALS 23, SEAHAWKS 20: Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Edgerrin James (128 yards, TD). Deion Branch (7 catches, 122 yards) with a big effort after last week's 0-fer. And the QBs were so-so, with just one TD apiece. I was expecting a little more.
LIONS 20, VIKINGS 17 (OT): Adrian Peterson got the bulk of the work with Taylor out but didn't go crazy like last week (20 carries, 66 yards, plus four catches, 52 yards). On the other side, Tatum Bell (nine carries, 14 yards) was a joke, clearing the way for a triumphant return by Kevin Jones sometime soon. The Detroit WR situation got a little clearer, with Roy Williams (111 yards, TD) acting as headliner, Calvin Johnson scoring for the second straight game and wild-card Shaun McDonald factoring in once again, equaling Williams for a team-high seven catches.
COWBOYS 37, DOLPHINS 20: Chris Chambers checked in with a nice day (nine catches, 109 yards) as I thought he could, and that was all she wrote for the Fins. Ronnie Brown (11 carres, 33 yards) was a nonfactor again - time to worry. And in the Cowboys backfield, you know the drill: Marion Barber (15 carries, 89 yards, two TDs) can find the end zone, Julius Jones (15 carries, 32 yards) cannot.
RAVENS 20, JETS 13: Willis McGahee (26 carries, 97 yards, TD) passed his first post-Jonathan Ogden test. Thomas Jones (25 carries, 67 yards) sputtered again, but better days are ahead. Jerricho Cotchery (seven catches, 165 yards) is busting out; Mark Clayton (one catch, minus-1 yards) is not.
BEARS 20, CHIEFS 10: A confidence-building, 101-yard effort for Cedric Benson was good to see, and the other Adrian Peterson was a nonfactor. Larry Johnson got bottled up again (55 yards), which is getting a little troublesome. Bears D comes through again thanks to this guy. No words are necessary for Rex Grossman.
BRONCOS 23, RAIDERS 20 (OT): How did that Ronald Curry waiver pickup treat you (two catches, 12 yards)? Remember, don't overreact when a WR blows up one week, especially when he faces Denver the following week. ... Josh McCown came back to his senses in a hurry (8 of 16, 73 yards, one TD, three INTs). Fine days on the ground for Travis Henry (128 yards) and LaMont Jordan (159 yards) - they are playas. Javon Walker carved out a good 101-yard day, while Brandon Marshall (five catches, 82 yards) teetered on the brink of the breakout some think he's capable of.
Bengals-Browns barn-burner
OK, Carson Palmer's six touchdowns I believe. You never go into a game expecting six TDs from your QB, but you knew Palmer would have a big day against the Browns, and if you had to pick a guy who'd throw half a dozen scores, he'd make the short list.
But five TDs from Derek Anderson??? I'll give my next paycheck to anybody who saw that coming. In fact, I'll give my next paycheck to anybody who even STARTED Anderson this week.*
(*Please note: Preceding statement was meant for dramatic effect only and is not legally binding. Besides, you could probably find more money in your couch cushions than in my next paycheck.)
Anyway, what did we learn from this improbable Browns-Bengals shootout? Well, I guess the big lesson is the Bengals suck.
Seriously, it's hard to give up 51 points in the NFL. And this wasn't Montana/Rice 49ers they were facing here, either. If Cleveland is capable of doing to Cincy the football equivalent of getting ankled, owners of Matt Hasselbeck and Co. should be licking their chops in anticipation of Week 3.
That's what you should take away from this whole debacle: Start your players against Cincinnati's D from here on out. We already knew Palmer, Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh etc. are studs. We basically already know Anderson and Jamal Lewis (215 yards, TD) probably aren't going to approach these kinds of days again, although they certainly become much more enticing fantasy options. But the real nugget of information you should store away in your head is play anybody that's facing the Bengals.
But five TDs from Derek Anderson??? I'll give my next paycheck to anybody who saw that coming. In fact, I'll give my next paycheck to anybody who even STARTED Anderson this week.*
(*Please note: Preceding statement was meant for dramatic effect only and is not legally binding. Besides, you could probably find more money in your couch cushions than in my next paycheck.)
Anyway, what did we learn from this improbable Browns-Bengals shootout? Well, I guess the big lesson is the Bengals suck.
Seriously, it's hard to give up 51 points in the NFL. And this wasn't Montana/Rice 49ers they were facing here, either. If Cleveland is capable of doing to Cincy the football equivalent of getting ankled, owners of Matt Hasselbeck and Co. should be licking their chops in anticipation of Week 3.
That's what you should take away from this whole debacle: Start your players against Cincinnati's D from here on out. We already knew Palmer, Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh etc. are studs. We basically already know Anderson and Jamal Lewis (215 yards, TD) probably aren't going to approach these kinds of days again, although they certainly become much more enticing fantasy options. But the real nugget of information you should store away in your head is play anybody that's facing the Bengals.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Start/Sit: Week 2
In this weekly post, I'm not going to cover every player out there. It goes without saying you should start Carson Palmer and Marvin Harrison every week. Instead, I'm going to drop a few names of guys who could have big days Sunday, and guys who could come up short of expectations.
START
• I like Cedric Benson to rebound against a Chiefs defense that made Chris Brown look like Jim Brown last week. Adrian Peterson (the Bears backup) might even find some room to run if your league allows a third RB.
• Joey Galloway might torch the Saints, whose secondary couldn't handle the Colts last week. Galloway had two of his best games last year in two matchups with New Orleans (110 yards and a TD, 97 yards and two TDs).
• If LaDainian Tomlinson could only muster 25 yards against the Bears, think a still-rusty Larry Johnson will do much better? Probably not, but he's still all the Chiefs have, and like LT2 last week, LJ might still find the end zone once or twice if K.C. gets close enough. You've got to start him unless you're really stacked at RB.
• Jake Delhomme apparently still has some life in him. Not a bad start against the Texans.
• Chris Chambers might have a big day against a Cowboys secondary that was torched by Plaxico Burress and even Amani Toomer last week.
• The Packers defense could have a field day against what could be the Giants' second-string offense.
SIT
• Thomas Jones didn't look so hot in his Jets debut against the Pats. Now he gets the Ravens, who made Rudi Johnson look pretty ordinary Monday night. Things might get worse for TJ before they get better.
• Ronald Curry was a waiver wire wonder, but if you start him against the Broncos secondary this week you'll be wondering why you bothered.
• Ahman Green might be bottled up by a tough Panthers defense.
• Even if Cadillac Williams suits up against the Saints, his ribs are hurting. Besides, he hasn't done anything notable since Week 11 last year (the last time he cracked the 100-yard mark) and hasn't scored since Week 3 of 2006.
• Be careful about using Warrick Dunn or Jerious Norwood against Jacksonville. Sure, the Jags' vaunted run D got abused last week, but they will clamp down after getting embarrassed by the Titans.
• I have a hard time using a supposed No. 1 receiver the week after he has zero catches. Lee Evans and Deion Branch might have good days, but after what they pulled last week you almost want to bench them for a week out of spite.
START
• I like Cedric Benson to rebound against a Chiefs defense that made Chris Brown look like Jim Brown last week. Adrian Peterson (the Bears backup) might even find some room to run if your league allows a third RB.
• Joey Galloway might torch the Saints, whose secondary couldn't handle the Colts last week. Galloway had two of his best games last year in two matchups with New Orleans (110 yards and a TD, 97 yards and two TDs).
• If LaDainian Tomlinson could only muster 25 yards against the Bears, think a still-rusty Larry Johnson will do much better? Probably not, but he's still all the Chiefs have, and like LT2 last week, LJ might still find the end zone once or twice if K.C. gets close enough. You've got to start him unless you're really stacked at RB.
• Jake Delhomme apparently still has some life in him. Not a bad start against the Texans.
• Chris Chambers might have a big day against a Cowboys secondary that was torched by Plaxico Burress and even Amani Toomer last week.
• The Packers defense could have a field day against what could be the Giants' second-string offense.
SIT
• Thomas Jones didn't look so hot in his Jets debut against the Pats. Now he gets the Ravens, who made Rudi Johnson look pretty ordinary Monday night. Things might get worse for TJ before they get better.
• Ronald Curry was a waiver wire wonder, but if you start him against the Broncos secondary this week you'll be wondering why you bothered.
• Ahman Green might be bottled up by a tough Panthers defense.
• Even if Cadillac Williams suits up against the Saints, his ribs are hurting. Besides, he hasn't done anything notable since Week 11 last year (the last time he cracked the 100-yard mark) and hasn't scored since Week 3 of 2006.
• Be careful about using Warrick Dunn or Jerious Norwood against Jacksonville. Sure, the Jags' vaunted run D got abused last week, but they will clamp down after getting embarrassed by the Titans.
• I have a hard time using a supposed No. 1 receiver the week after he has zero catches. Lee Evans and Deion Branch might have good days, but after what they pulled last week you almost want to bench them for a week out of spite.
Don't forget baseball!
Ah, baseball in autumn. Time for wild card races, magic numbers and more random Dane Cook commercials.
As we make the slow transition from the regular season to October’s playoffs and the culmination of the fantasy baseball season, there’s an even greater menace jockeying for our attention. It’s the dreaded F word: Football.
Football blots out everything else on the sports landscape, and it’s often a death sentence for all those fantasy baseball teams on the bubble of championship contention. Face it: If your baseball team has been sitting in third place for the past two or three months unable to gain any ground, why not just forget about it, wipe the slate clean and concentrate on fantasy football?
Hold it right there. Back in April when you signed up to play fantasy baseball, you agreed to an unwritten contract stating you’d make an effort to be competitive all season long. Whether you realized it at the time or not, you’re bound by this contract to do all you can to put the best baseball lineup possible out there every day, no matter how exciting this whole football thing my seem.
You owe it to the rest of your league’s competitors, and to fantasy competitors everywhere, to give it your best shot the next few weeks. Once the calendar flips to October and you’re truly out of contention, you can go back to pigskin pursuits such as deciphering John Madden’s ramblings, selling your Charlie Frye Cleveland Browns jersey on e-bay, and, of course, managing your fantasy football team. But for now, keep reaching for the stars.
Here are some guys who might be able to help in that area:
• Daric Barton is the Oakland Athletics’ first baseman of the future, and that future has already begun. Barton, called up for the first time earlier this week, is your prototypical A’s prospect: a big-time hitter who’s not afraid to take a walk.
Barton, acquired along with Dan Haren in the Mark Mulder deal - think the St. Louis Cardinals would like a do-over on that one? – is going to play just about every day from here on out, replacing Dan Johnson in an audition for next year’s starting gig at first.
• Hank Blalock, is that you? The onetime fantasy cornerstone is back after a 106-day recovery from shoulder surgery. And since returning from the DL on Sept. 2, Blalock has blasted three homers and knocked in 10 runs for the Texas Rangers, showing some of the pop from his 30-homer days back in 2003-05. Seems like the shoulder’s feeling just fine.
• If you’ve been wondering if Moises Alou still plays, the answer is yes, and at a high level no less. The 40-something is getting steady playing time and hitting a robust .441 in September with the New York Mets. If he can avoid a trip to the trainer’s room the rest of the season, Alou could be a big contributor in that offense.
• Pat Burrell may never have his own monument erected next to the Rocky statue in Philadelphia, but the veteran has slowly won over some hardened Phillies fans with an excellent second half. He’s raised his average more than 60 points since bottoming out at .201 on July 1, gone deep 17 times since the All-Star break and kept the Phils alive in the wild-card chase. A big key to the 30-year-old outfielder’s success has been his career-high 101 walks. Get him in your lineup and let the good times roll.
• Florida Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs already has 13 RBIs in September – eclipsing his total from every other month this season. He’s desperately fighting to convince the team to keep him as an everyday first baseman next year, though outfielder Miguel Cabrera could already have an inside track on the job with every pound he packs on. Still, we can’t blame Jacobs for trying – and we can’t ignore his stats, either.
As we make the slow transition from the regular season to October’s playoffs and the culmination of the fantasy baseball season, there’s an even greater menace jockeying for our attention. It’s the dreaded F word: Football.
Football blots out everything else on the sports landscape, and it’s often a death sentence for all those fantasy baseball teams on the bubble of championship contention. Face it: If your baseball team has been sitting in third place for the past two or three months unable to gain any ground, why not just forget about it, wipe the slate clean and concentrate on fantasy football?
Hold it right there. Back in April when you signed up to play fantasy baseball, you agreed to an unwritten contract stating you’d make an effort to be competitive all season long. Whether you realized it at the time or not, you’re bound by this contract to do all you can to put the best baseball lineup possible out there every day, no matter how exciting this whole football thing my seem.
You owe it to the rest of your league’s competitors, and to fantasy competitors everywhere, to give it your best shot the next few weeks. Once the calendar flips to October and you’re truly out of contention, you can go back to pigskin pursuits such as deciphering John Madden’s ramblings, selling your Charlie Frye Cleveland Browns jersey on e-bay, and, of course, managing your fantasy football team. But for now, keep reaching for the stars.
Here are some guys who might be able to help in that area:
• Daric Barton is the Oakland Athletics’ first baseman of the future, and that future has already begun. Barton, called up for the first time earlier this week, is your prototypical A’s prospect: a big-time hitter who’s not afraid to take a walk.
Barton, acquired along with Dan Haren in the Mark Mulder deal - think the St. Louis Cardinals would like a do-over on that one? – is going to play just about every day from here on out, replacing Dan Johnson in an audition for next year’s starting gig at first.
• Hank Blalock, is that you? The onetime fantasy cornerstone is back after a 106-day recovery from shoulder surgery. And since returning from the DL on Sept. 2, Blalock has blasted three homers and knocked in 10 runs for the Texas Rangers, showing some of the pop from his 30-homer days back in 2003-05. Seems like the shoulder’s feeling just fine.
• If you’ve been wondering if Moises Alou still plays, the answer is yes, and at a high level no less. The 40-something is getting steady playing time and hitting a robust .441 in September with the New York Mets. If he can avoid a trip to the trainer’s room the rest of the season, Alou could be a big contributor in that offense.
• Pat Burrell may never have his own monument erected next to the Rocky statue in Philadelphia, but the veteran has slowly won over some hardened Phillies fans with an excellent second half. He’s raised his average more than 60 points since bottoming out at .201 on July 1, gone deep 17 times since the All-Star break and kept the Phils alive in the wild-card chase. A big key to the 30-year-old outfielder’s success has been his career-high 101 walks. Get him in your lineup and let the good times roll.
• Florida Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs already has 13 RBIs in September – eclipsing his total from every other month this season. He’s desperately fighting to convince the team to keep him as an everyday first baseman next year, though outfielder Miguel Cabrera could already have an inside track on the job with every pound he packs on. Still, we can’t blame Jacobs for trying – and we can’t ignore his stats, either.
Week 1: The good, bad and unpredictable
The first week of NFL action is always the hardest to predict. We went into our season-opening fantasy matchups basing our expectations on four meaningless preseason games, head coaches' cryptic comments, rumors, hearsay and innuendo.
For instance, who knew Randy Moss' hamstring was so healthy? The dude didn't play all preseason, Bill Belichick was his usual tight-lipped self - and Moss goes nuts for 183 yards and a TD on Sunday. I'm still not sold he'll be a consistent producer in the New England Patriots' spread-the-ball offense, but it looks like you can safely insert Moss into your lineup this week against the San Diego Chargers and at least get something out of him.
Moss' tale is just one piece of good news fantasy owners received after seeing some games that count. We've also gotten some red flags, too, concerning players we had big hopes for. Here's what we've learned so far.
GOOD NEWS
• Minnesota Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson showed a flash of his potential Sunday (163 total yards, TD) while running mate Chester Taylor went down. Taylor (oblique) will be back, but Peterson's already proven he can carry the load. He's a decent option against the Detroit Lions this week.
• Shaun Alexander showed no signs of last year's broken foot, romping for 106 yards and a TD. There are a few caveats - he had a whopping 27 carries, and they came against the soft Tampa Bay Buccaneers - but consider the foot problem a non-issue.
• Another non-issue: Travis Henry's preseason knee problems. The Denver Broncos' offseason acquisition looked as nimble as ever (139 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards) against the Buffalo Bills and should be a productive No. 1 RB.
• LaMont Jordan's 15 carries for 70 yards and a TD don't automatically erase last season's "bust" label from his forehead . . . but his nine receptions for 89 yards certainly help his cause. If new Oakland Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin is willing to utilize Jordan's pass-catching skills, we're all for it.
BAD NEWS
• Brandon Jacobs' knee injury was in fact the worst news from Week 1. A sprained MCL may keep the New York Giants RB sidelined three to five weeks. Backup Derrick Ward (and not Reuben Droughns, as I've previously warned) is probably the guy you want to add if you're desperate.
• The injury bug also bit Giants QB Eli Manning, who had an encouraging 2007 debut (312 yards, four TDs) Sunday night before exiting with a banged-up shoulder. Young Eli is week-to-week, so go with Plan B - and hopefully that's not hefty Giants second-stringer Jared Lorenzen.
• Still reeling from a sub-60-yard performance by Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson or LaDainian Tomlinson? Relax. I'm confident all of these gentlemen have multiple 100-yard games in their futures.
• Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints didn't have the outing we've come to expect in their season opener at Indianapolis. But better days are ahead for every member of that offense, beginning Sunday in Tampa.
For instance, who knew Randy Moss' hamstring was so healthy? The dude didn't play all preseason, Bill Belichick was his usual tight-lipped self - and Moss goes nuts for 183 yards and a TD on Sunday. I'm still not sold he'll be a consistent producer in the New England Patriots' spread-the-ball offense, but it looks like you can safely insert Moss into your lineup this week against the San Diego Chargers and at least get something out of him.
Moss' tale is just one piece of good news fantasy owners received after seeing some games that count. We've also gotten some red flags, too, concerning players we had big hopes for. Here's what we've learned so far.
GOOD NEWS
• Minnesota Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson showed a flash of his potential Sunday (163 total yards, TD) while running mate Chester Taylor went down. Taylor (oblique) will be back, but Peterson's already proven he can carry the load. He's a decent option against the Detroit Lions this week.
• Shaun Alexander showed no signs of last year's broken foot, romping for 106 yards and a TD. There are a few caveats - he had a whopping 27 carries, and they came against the soft Tampa Bay Buccaneers - but consider the foot problem a non-issue.
• Another non-issue: Travis Henry's preseason knee problems. The Denver Broncos' offseason acquisition looked as nimble as ever (139 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards) against the Buffalo Bills and should be a productive No. 1 RB.
• LaMont Jordan's 15 carries for 70 yards and a TD don't automatically erase last season's "bust" label from his forehead . . . but his nine receptions for 89 yards certainly help his cause. If new Oakland Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin is willing to utilize Jordan's pass-catching skills, we're all for it.
BAD NEWS
• Brandon Jacobs' knee injury was in fact the worst news from Week 1. A sprained MCL may keep the New York Giants RB sidelined three to five weeks. Backup Derrick Ward (and not Reuben Droughns, as I've previously warned) is probably the guy you want to add if you're desperate.
• The injury bug also bit Giants QB Eli Manning, who had an encouraging 2007 debut (312 yards, four TDs) Sunday night before exiting with a banged-up shoulder. Young Eli is week-to-week, so go with Plan B - and hopefully that's not hefty Giants second-stringer Jared Lorenzen.
• Still reeling from a sub-60-yard performance by Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson or LaDainian Tomlinson? Relax. I'm confident all of these gentlemen have multiple 100-yard games in their futures.
• Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints didn't have the outing we've come to expect in their season opener at Indianapolis. But better days are ahead for every member of that offense, beginning Sunday in Tampa.
Hot pickups - Week 2
It's still early, so don't overreact if you started out 0-1 (like I did) and start overhauling your roster.
If you can't resist, however, or if you just realized you drafted three kickers, here are a couple guys you might look into picking up:
• RB Chris Brown, Tennessee Titans: Brown smoked the Chiefs (19 carries, 175 yards) and left platoon-mate LenDale White (18 carries, 66 yards) in his dust.
The bad news: The platoon might still be in place for the foreseeable future, the Titans won't play the Chiefs every game, and it's Chris Brown. A useful pickup, but don't get too excited.
• RB Derrick Ward, New York Giants: The spry, little-used Ward did his best Tiki Barber impression after Brandon Jacobs went down with a knee injury Sunday night (116 total yards, TD).
The bad news: The bulk of those yards came in one 44-yard chunk, the Cowboys defense didn't seem much interested in stopping the Giants, and Reuben Droughns is still lurking in the backfield. Jacobs could also be back in a few weeks, but for the short term, I'd rather have Ward, as Droughns is playing fullback.
• WR Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders: There was some potential for either Curry or Jerry Porter to be a contributor this year. Curry (133 yards, TD) took a big step forward, while Porter (two catches, 26 yards) didn't. In fact, Curry led all NFL receivers with 10 catches in Week 1.
The bad news: Just when Curry was showing a little rapport with QB Josh McCown, we learn McCown hurt his finger and foot in Week 1, and Daunte Culpepper may take over the starting reins. Who knows what we can expect from him. Oh, and they're also facing a challenging Broncos defense this week. Consider yourself warned.
If you can't resist, however, or if you just realized you drafted three kickers, here are a couple guys you might look into picking up:
• RB Chris Brown, Tennessee Titans: Brown smoked the Chiefs (19 carries, 175 yards) and left platoon-mate LenDale White (18 carries, 66 yards) in his dust.
The bad news: The platoon might still be in place for the foreseeable future, the Titans won't play the Chiefs every game, and it's Chris Brown. A useful pickup, but don't get too excited.
• RB Derrick Ward, New York Giants: The spry, little-used Ward did his best Tiki Barber impression after Brandon Jacobs went down with a knee injury Sunday night (116 total yards, TD).
The bad news: The bulk of those yards came in one 44-yard chunk, the Cowboys defense didn't seem much interested in stopping the Giants, and Reuben Droughns is still lurking in the backfield. Jacobs could also be back in a few weeks, but for the short term, I'd rather have Ward, as Droughns is playing fullback.
• WR Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders: There was some potential for either Curry or Jerry Porter to be a contributor this year. Curry (133 yards, TD) took a big step forward, while Porter (two catches, 26 yards) didn't. In fact, Curry led all NFL receivers with 10 catches in Week 1.
The bad news: Just when Curry was showing a little rapport with QB Josh McCown, we learn McCown hurt his finger and foot in Week 1, and Daunte Culpepper may take over the starting reins. Who knows what we can expect from him. Oh, and they're also facing a challenging Broncos defense this week. Consider yourself warned.
Worried about Steven Jackson?
Just a few weeks ago I said I had no worries about making Steven Jackson the No. 2 overall fantasy pick this year. True to my word, I even went out and did exactly that in one of my drafts.
Jackson rewarded me with a 58-yard, no-TD opener against Carolina. Even more disconcerting, he caught just one pass for three yards, lost two fumbles, and his best blocker, Rams left tackle Orlando Pace, got hurt and is out for the year?
So am I worried yet? No. Here are three reasons why:
1. Carolina had Jackson's number last year, too. They held him to just 27 yards in Week 10 of 2006, by far his lowest output last season. The Panthers can play a little defense.
2. Pace missed the last seven games of last season. Jackson's rushing average during that stretch: 106 yards a game. Throwing out the Carolina game, which came the week following Pace's injury: 119 yards a game. And he continued to be a receiving threat. Pace's absence won't hurt Jackson that much this year, either.
3. Jackson faces the 49ers this week. The same 49ers that let him rush for 103 yards and 121 yards in their two matchups last season. The same 49ers that also let him catch nine passes for 91 yards in their second meeting last year. If Jackson doesn't have a nice day this Sunday, maybe then I'll start considering possibly thinking about worrying.
But not now.
Jackson rewarded me with a 58-yard, no-TD opener against Carolina. Even more disconcerting, he caught just one pass for three yards, lost two fumbles, and his best blocker, Rams left tackle Orlando Pace, got hurt and is out for the year?
So am I worried yet? No. Here are three reasons why:
1. Carolina had Jackson's number last year, too. They held him to just 27 yards in Week 10 of 2006, by far his lowest output last season. The Panthers can play a little defense.
2. Pace missed the last seven games of last season. Jackson's rushing average during that stretch: 106 yards a game. Throwing out the Carolina game, which came the week following Pace's injury: 119 yards a game. And he continued to be a receiving threat. Pace's absence won't hurt Jackson that much this year, either.
3. Jackson faces the 49ers this week. The same 49ers that let him rush for 103 yards and 121 yards in their two matchups last season. The same 49ers that also let him catch nine passes for 91 yards in their second meeting last year. If Jackson doesn't have a nice day this Sunday, maybe then I'll start considering possibly thinking about worrying.
But not now.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Thursday outlook
Enough of this preseason crap ... let's play some real football!
Saints-Colts seems like a heck of a way to kick off the 2007 season. It's one of those dream matchups for fantasy nerds like myself thanks to all the skill players involved. Here are some thoughts ....
• You want to start pretty much everybody involved in this one. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush are all obvious must-starts ... if you didn't already know that, you're pretty much hopeless.
• Marques Colston has been hampered by injuries since last year, and there's a little uncertainty surrounding him this year since he hasn't gotten much preseason work. He's also just a second-year guy who won't have the benefit of being an unknown like last year (anybody who owned Michael Clayton in 2005 is nodding their head in agreement right now). Defenses will be waiting for him. There will be a lot of pressure on him.
With all that being said, I'd start him this week unless you're super stacked at WR. This game has "track meet" written all over it, and until he does something to fall out of that second tier of fantasy's top receivers, he deserves to be in your lineup.
• Deuce McAllister is a pretty good option too, depending on your league size and your roster depth. He could be a No. 2 or a No. 3 fantasy tailback right now depending on your situation, but this seems like a pretty favorable matchup against a defense that looks downgraded from last year's and should struggle against the run. I think Deuce will be used basically the same as he was last year while sharing the load with Bush, which makes him a nice play.
• As for the tight ends, Dallas Clark might do something, but he can be kind of hit or miss. There are probably better options out there unless you're in a really deep league. And while I like Eric Johnson as a sleeper this year for the Saints, it's too early to play him unless you're really thin. I'm interested to see how New Orleans uses him in the early going.
• Devery Henderson and Anthony Gonzalez are fringe fantasy players right now. Although it's a favorable matchup for both, they're more like bye week fill-ins rather than starters this early in the season.
Saints-Colts seems like a heck of a way to kick off the 2007 season. It's one of those dream matchups for fantasy nerds like myself thanks to all the skill players involved. Here are some thoughts ....
• You want to start pretty much everybody involved in this one. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush are all obvious must-starts ... if you didn't already know that, you're pretty much hopeless.
• Marques Colston has been hampered by injuries since last year, and there's a little uncertainty surrounding him this year since he hasn't gotten much preseason work. He's also just a second-year guy who won't have the benefit of being an unknown like last year (anybody who owned Michael Clayton in 2005 is nodding their head in agreement right now). Defenses will be waiting for him. There will be a lot of pressure on him.
With all that being said, I'd start him this week unless you're super stacked at WR. This game has "track meet" written all over it, and until he does something to fall out of that second tier of fantasy's top receivers, he deserves to be in your lineup.
• Deuce McAllister is a pretty good option too, depending on your league size and your roster depth. He could be a No. 2 or a No. 3 fantasy tailback right now depending on your situation, but this seems like a pretty favorable matchup against a defense that looks downgraded from last year's and should struggle against the run. I think Deuce will be used basically the same as he was last year while sharing the load with Bush, which makes him a nice play.
• As for the tight ends, Dallas Clark might do something, but he can be kind of hit or miss. There are probably better options out there unless you're in a really deep league. And while I like Eric Johnson as a sleeper this year for the Saints, it's too early to play him unless you're really thin. I'm interested to see how New Orleans uses him in the early going.
• Devery Henderson and Anthony Gonzalez are fringe fantasy players right now. Although it's a favorable matchup for both, they're more like bye week fill-ins rather than starters this early in the season.
Start your studs
I’ve got a serious question, and I’m hoping someone out there can help me answer it.
Should I start Carson Palmer this weekend?
Sure, I was thrilled to draft him in two of my leagues, once in the second round and once in the third (yes, third!) round. Sure, he’s pretty much the consensus No. 2 fantasy quarterback this year, just a hair behind Peyton Manning. Sure, he threw for more than 4,000 yards last year and rung up 28 touchdown passes. But he’s playing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday – aren’t they supposed to have a pretty good defense or something?
OK, you got me. I wasn’t really being serious – I had Palmer penciled in as my starter about two seconds after I called out his name on draft day. There’s no way in heck I’m sitting him this week, or any week for that matter, Ravens or no Ravens. I was just trying to make a point: When you’re setting your lineup, please don’t think too much.
If you’ve got Palmer or Manning or Steven Jackson or Marvin Harrison or Shaun Alexander, you play them, no questions asked. I don’t care if they’re facing a superdefense made up of 11 genetically-engineered Brian Urlacher clones and coached by the ghost of Buddy Ryan himself – if a guy was good enough to be drafted in the first or second round, and he’s able to stand upright this week, you start him.
Some owners have a tendency to overanalyze their lineup choices to the point of absurdity. Yeah, Drew Brees is awesome, but I like Tarvaris Jackson’s upside! LaDainian Tomlinson might only score twice this week! I heard Larry Johnson’s got a papercut!
Don’t be like those guys. Always start your studs.
On the other hand, not every guy on your team is a stud. For those hard-to-make roster choices, here are some guidelines:
• Don’t play with fire: Randy Moss hasn’t caught one ball this preseason. His hamstring’s hurting (again). He’s on a new team that’s notorious for secretive injury reports, unexpected offensive gameplans and spreading the ball around. And his Wikipedia entry contains a four-paragraph entry subtitled “Lack of effort.” Does that sound like someone you want in your lineup in Week 1? Didn’t think so.
• Beware timeshares: It’s usually safer to go with a middle-tier guy who’s a proven feature back (Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee) over a player expected to split carries (Ladell Betts, Jerious Norwood), especially in Week 1. It won’t hurt to at least wait a game and see how those workloads are going to be divided.
Yes, most of us believe rookie Adrian Peterson will eventually be the lead horse in Minnesota, but sometimes it takes a few weeks for those situations to play themselves out. Joseph Addai had just seven carries for 26 yards in Week 1 last year, and we all know how that one turned out by season’s end. Give it time.
• Prepare for growing pains: Marshawn Lynch might dominate the NFL. Calvin Johnson might be a Hall of Famer. But until they play a down in a meaningful game, it’s hard to consider them as anything more than luxury items with potential. Few skill players are ready to step into the NFL and perform at a consistently high level as rookies, so before you crown yourself executive of the year for drafting a future star, let’s see if he’s actually ready to contribute.
Should I start Carson Palmer this weekend?
Sure, I was thrilled to draft him in two of my leagues, once in the second round and once in the third (yes, third!) round. Sure, he’s pretty much the consensus No. 2 fantasy quarterback this year, just a hair behind Peyton Manning. Sure, he threw for more than 4,000 yards last year and rung up 28 touchdown passes. But he’s playing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday – aren’t they supposed to have a pretty good defense or something?
OK, you got me. I wasn’t really being serious – I had Palmer penciled in as my starter about two seconds after I called out his name on draft day. There’s no way in heck I’m sitting him this week, or any week for that matter, Ravens or no Ravens. I was just trying to make a point: When you’re setting your lineup, please don’t think too much.
If you’ve got Palmer or Manning or Steven Jackson or Marvin Harrison or Shaun Alexander, you play them, no questions asked. I don’t care if they’re facing a superdefense made up of 11 genetically-engineered Brian Urlacher clones and coached by the ghost of Buddy Ryan himself – if a guy was good enough to be drafted in the first or second round, and he’s able to stand upright this week, you start him.
Some owners have a tendency to overanalyze their lineup choices to the point of absurdity. Yeah, Drew Brees is awesome, but I like Tarvaris Jackson’s upside! LaDainian Tomlinson might only score twice this week! I heard Larry Johnson’s got a papercut!
Don’t be like those guys. Always start your studs.
On the other hand, not every guy on your team is a stud. For those hard-to-make roster choices, here are some guidelines:
• Don’t play with fire: Randy Moss hasn’t caught one ball this preseason. His hamstring’s hurting (again). He’s on a new team that’s notorious for secretive injury reports, unexpected offensive gameplans and spreading the ball around. And his Wikipedia entry contains a four-paragraph entry subtitled “Lack of effort.” Does that sound like someone you want in your lineup in Week 1? Didn’t think so.
• Beware timeshares: It’s usually safer to go with a middle-tier guy who’s a proven feature back (Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee) over a player expected to split carries (Ladell Betts, Jerious Norwood), especially in Week 1. It won’t hurt to at least wait a game and see how those workloads are going to be divided.
Yes, most of us believe rookie Adrian Peterson will eventually be the lead horse in Minnesota, but sometimes it takes a few weeks for those situations to play themselves out. Joseph Addai had just seven carries for 26 yards in Week 1 last year, and we all know how that one turned out by season’s end. Give it time.
• Prepare for growing pains: Marshawn Lynch might dominate the NFL. Calvin Johnson might be a Hall of Famer. But until they play a down in a meaningful game, it’s hard to consider them as anything more than luxury items with potential. Few skill players are ready to step into the NFL and perform at a consistently high level as rookies, so before you crown yourself executive of the year for drafting a future star, let’s see if he’s actually ready to contribute.
Monday, September 03, 2007
Tales from the draft
I'm sure a lot of you drafted over the weekend. I took part in two drafts for my two main leagues: one in a gathering of some friends and colleagues, the other via cell phone to a location 1,100 miles away.
Here's how I made out:
LEAGUE 1
12 teams, 7th overall pick
NITTANY LOINS:
QB Carson Palmer
QB JP Losman
RB Frank Gore
RB Brandon Jacobs
RB Ladell Betts
RB Chester Taylor
WR Terrell Owens
WR Andre Johnson
WR Braylon Edwards
WR Brandon Jones
TE Chris Cooley
TE Tony Scheffler
K David Akers
K John Kasay
Miami Defense
Dallas Defense
I was thrilled to have Gore drop to me with the No. 7 pick. I was expecting to get Shaun Alexander or somebody like that ... I had Gore at No. 4 in my overall rankings.
Snagged Palmer in the second round ... I put him basically in the same class as Peyton Manning, who went in the first round. I'm not a big T.O. fan, at least not in real life, but I had to grab him since he was the last elite WR available. Thrilled to get Jacbos, Betts and A. Johnson ... Not too sure about Taylor but not bad for a No. 4 ... I like the Dolphins too, mostly because of Ted Ginn Jr.
LEAGUE 2
10 teams, standard scoring, 2nd overall pick
ACE IN THE HOLE:
QB Carson Palmer
QB Eli Manning
RB Steven Jackson
RB Thomas Jones
RB Cedric Benson
RB Jerious Norwood
WR Lee Evans
WR Plaxico Burress
WR Laveranues Coles
WR Joey Galloway
TE Alge Crumpler
TE Bo Scaife
K Shayne Graham
K Jay Feely
New England defense
San Francisco defense
This is my big-money league, and my dad and I are co-owners. We really tanked last year (hence the second pick), in large part because of some big-time duds at RB (Clinton Portis, LaMont Jordan). So we decided to go pretty heavy on the tailbacks. Jackson was an obvious choice at with the No. 2 pick, then I opted for Jones in the second round. Benson as a third-string RB was the icing on the cake, and I love Norwood as my No. 4.
I was thrilled to have Palmer fell to us in the third round. Looks like I'm a Bengals fan this year! It should make my teams a little easier to follow on Sundays, if nothing else.
Receiving corps is a little iffy, but that's the trade-off for loading up on running backs. The league scoring tends to be a little RB-biased anyway, which works to my advantage. Not thrilled about Crumpler, but what can you do?
Anyway, overall I was pretty happy with both drafts, but it seems like that's always the case. You never really know until the season plays out. I'll keep you updated on how I'm doing this season. Feel free to share some thoughts about how your own drafts turned out.
Here's how I made out:
LEAGUE 1
12 teams, 7th overall pick
NITTANY LOINS:
QB Carson Palmer
QB JP Losman
RB Frank Gore
RB Brandon Jacobs
RB Ladell Betts
RB Chester Taylor
WR Terrell Owens
WR Andre Johnson
WR Braylon Edwards
WR Brandon Jones
TE Chris Cooley
TE Tony Scheffler
K David Akers
K John Kasay
Miami Defense
Dallas Defense
I was thrilled to have Gore drop to me with the No. 7 pick. I was expecting to get Shaun Alexander or somebody like that ... I had Gore at No. 4 in my overall rankings.
Snagged Palmer in the second round ... I put him basically in the same class as Peyton Manning, who went in the first round. I'm not a big T.O. fan, at least not in real life, but I had to grab him since he was the last elite WR available. Thrilled to get Jacbos, Betts and A. Johnson ... Not too sure about Taylor but not bad for a No. 4 ... I like the Dolphins too, mostly because of Ted Ginn Jr.
LEAGUE 2
10 teams, standard scoring, 2nd overall pick
ACE IN THE HOLE:
QB Carson Palmer
QB Eli Manning
RB Steven Jackson
RB Thomas Jones
RB Cedric Benson
RB Jerious Norwood
WR Lee Evans
WR Plaxico Burress
WR Laveranues Coles
WR Joey Galloway
TE Alge Crumpler
TE Bo Scaife
K Shayne Graham
K Jay Feely
New England defense
San Francisco defense
This is my big-money league, and my dad and I are co-owners. We really tanked last year (hence the second pick), in large part because of some big-time duds at RB (Clinton Portis, LaMont Jordan). So we decided to go pretty heavy on the tailbacks. Jackson was an obvious choice at with the No. 2 pick, then I opted for Jones in the second round. Benson as a third-string RB was the icing on the cake, and I love Norwood as my No. 4.
I was thrilled to have Palmer fell to us in the third round. Looks like I'm a Bengals fan this year! It should make my teams a little easier to follow on Sundays, if nothing else.
Receiving corps is a little iffy, but that's the trade-off for loading up on running backs. The league scoring tends to be a little RB-biased anyway, which works to my advantage. Not thrilled about Crumpler, but what can you do?
Anyway, overall I was pretty happy with both drafts, but it seems like that's always the case. You never really know until the season plays out. I'll keep you updated on how I'm doing this season. Feel free to share some thoughts about how your own drafts turned out.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Jags make a change
A surprising note from Friday: Jacksonville is going with David Garrard as its starting QB and plans to trade or release Byron Leftwich.
It's common knowledge the Jags have been less than pleased with what they've gotten out of Leftwich during his tenure as the starter, and he and coach Jack Del Rio haven't been BFFs. But the QB change comes as a bit of a shock this late in the season since the Jags had been saying all along Leftwich was the starter.
So what's the fantasy impact? It's not as if Leftwich is a stud or anything, but he's been a semi-useful player and was probably slotted as a decent No. 2 option this year. If you've already drafted him as your backup, you don't necessarily have to go dropping him until we see where he lands - if he goes to another team with an unsettled QB situation, he might have a shot to be a starter again soon.
I had Lefty ranked No. 26 among QBs before this news, behind guys such as Jeff Garcia, Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell, Trent Green and Matt Schaub, so if you can safely replace him with one of those other signal-callers, go ahead.
As for Garrard, he has basically the same projected value as Leftwich, although he will run a little more. That offense isn't exactly a powerhouse, and I may be biased, but I picked him up once when he was filling in for Leftwich for a stretch against some weak teams, and he was fairly disappointing. So I rate him as a very low-end No. 2.
It's common knowledge the Jags have been less than pleased with what they've gotten out of Leftwich during his tenure as the starter, and he and coach Jack Del Rio haven't been BFFs. But the QB change comes as a bit of a shock this late in the season since the Jags had been saying all along Leftwich was the starter.
So what's the fantasy impact? It's not as if Leftwich is a stud or anything, but he's been a semi-useful player and was probably slotted as a decent No. 2 option this year. If you've already drafted him as your backup, you don't necessarily have to go dropping him until we see where he lands - if he goes to another team with an unsettled QB situation, he might have a shot to be a starter again soon.
I had Lefty ranked No. 26 among QBs before this news, behind guys such as Jeff Garcia, Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell, Trent Green and Matt Schaub, so if you can safely replace him with one of those other signal-callers, go ahead.
As for Garrard, he has basically the same projected value as Leftwich, although he will run a little more. That offense isn't exactly a powerhouse, and I may be biased, but I picked him up once when he was filling in for Leftwich for a stretch against some weak teams, and he was fairly disappointing. So I rate him as a very low-end No. 2.
Science fiction
Fantasy football is not a science.
As much as some fantasy “experts” try to crunch numbers, analyze data and apply formulas to their rankings and projections, this game is really just a crapshoot.
Don’t get me wrong: I’ve been known to break out a little scientific method now and then, trying to bring a little order to the chaotic universe of fantasy football. Part of my job involves taking all the information that’s out there and making sense of it all.
But in the end, science can only take you so far. Science couldn’t predict what Marques Colston did last year. And science has no explanation for how Warrick Dunn has lasted in the NFL this long.
There are no absolutes in fantasy football, no hard and fast rules that will hold up in lab testing. That’s why I’m more interested in Sir Isaac Bruce than Sir Isaac Newton, more concerned with the stud running back theory than the theory of relativity. And it’s why instead of giving you some kind of chiseled-in-stone laws for fantasy drafting, I’m going to share some simple gut feelings I have about players I like this season.
• QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles: If you’re the kind of person who plays penny slots in Vegas, this is not the gamble for you. But there are only five QBs I’d trust more than McNabb, who is capable of outproducing all of them (yes, all of them) if he can avoid injury.
• RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Here’s your chance to get this year’s version of Joseph Addai/Laurence Maroney. Even in a timeshare, Peterson will have a breakout role in the Vikings’ offensive philosophy of running to set up the run.
• RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: Listen, he’s not Tiki Barber, but who is? After Jacobs is off the draft board, good luck finding another bona fide feature back out there. And no, I’m not worried about Reuben Droughns – he’s a fullback in a running back’s uniform.
• RB LaMont Jordan, Oakland Raiders: LaMont and I have a love/hate relationship. He burned me big-time last year, but he’s slowly winning me back with a great preseason. I don’t think I can stay mad at him.
• RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets: I thought this was a great offseason move, and his calf injury hasn’t swayed my opinion. Jones is the dependable, every-down back the Jets lacked last year. He’s going to make a fine No. 2 RB.
• QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams: The pretty boys at the top of the QB rankings get all the attention, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bulger as a close second behind Peyton Manning when the season’s over.
• QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos: It’s not often you see a young quarterback surrounded with this much offensive talent and working behind this kind of quality offensive line. Don’t worry about the kid, he’s going to be fine.
As much as some fantasy “experts” try to crunch numbers, analyze data and apply formulas to their rankings and projections, this game is really just a crapshoot.
Don’t get me wrong: I’ve been known to break out a little scientific method now and then, trying to bring a little order to the chaotic universe of fantasy football. Part of my job involves taking all the information that’s out there and making sense of it all.
But in the end, science can only take you so far. Science couldn’t predict what Marques Colston did last year. And science has no explanation for how Warrick Dunn has lasted in the NFL this long.
There are no absolutes in fantasy football, no hard and fast rules that will hold up in lab testing. That’s why I’m more interested in Sir Isaac Bruce than Sir Isaac Newton, more concerned with the stud running back theory than the theory of relativity. And it’s why instead of giving you some kind of chiseled-in-stone laws for fantasy drafting, I’m going to share some simple gut feelings I have about players I like this season.
• QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles: If you’re the kind of person who plays penny slots in Vegas, this is not the gamble for you. But there are only five QBs I’d trust more than McNabb, who is capable of outproducing all of them (yes, all of them) if he can avoid injury.
• RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Here’s your chance to get this year’s version of Joseph Addai/Laurence Maroney. Even in a timeshare, Peterson will have a breakout role in the Vikings’ offensive philosophy of running to set up the run.
• RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: Listen, he’s not Tiki Barber, but who is? After Jacobs is off the draft board, good luck finding another bona fide feature back out there. And no, I’m not worried about Reuben Droughns – he’s a fullback in a running back’s uniform.
• RB LaMont Jordan, Oakland Raiders: LaMont and I have a love/hate relationship. He burned me big-time last year, but he’s slowly winning me back with a great preseason. I don’t think I can stay mad at him.
• RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets: I thought this was a great offseason move, and his calf injury hasn’t swayed my opinion. Jones is the dependable, every-down back the Jets lacked last year. He’s going to make a fine No. 2 RB.
• QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams: The pretty boys at the top of the QB rankings get all the attention, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bulger as a close second behind Peyton Manning when the season’s over.
• QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos: It’s not often you see a young quarterback surrounded with this much offensive talent and working behind this kind of quality offensive line. Don’t worry about the kid, he’s going to be fine.
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