Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Where have all the stud RBs gone?

Week 3 is a big week for the Big Three.

The three running backs I had slotted at the top of my preseason fantasy rankings – LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson – have a lot of explaining to do. None of them have lived up to the hype so far this year, and at the risk of making me (and lots of other fantasy “experts” and owners) look silly, they need to get their acts together Sunday.

The outputs of these three supposed studs are simply unacceptable given their standing as first-round fantasy picks. Together, they’ve combined for 284 rushing yards this year – or just 68 more than Jamal Lewis’ Week 2 total.

In other words, they stink.

But is there any hope for recovery? Or should we start making contingency plans? Well, before you start a letter-writing campaign to get Tiki Barber to reconsider this whole TV thing, let’s take a closer look at each bumbling back’s situation:

• Tomlinson’s shortcomings are the most puzzling of the bunch, and perhaps in all of fantasy football. The consensus No. 1 pick has gained just 68 yards on the ground with an average of 1.9 yards a carry. Those numbers are jaw-dropping when you consider Tomlinson’s recent dominance and the 4.4 yards a carry he’s averaged in his career. The only saving grace is Tomlinson’s two touchdowns in Week 1 (one of which he threw) - but still, this is not the LT2 we’ve come to know and love.

What’s changed since last year? The most notable difference is the guy calling the shots on the sidelines for the San Diego Chargers, Norv Turner. The offensive guru doesn’t exactly have a sparkling reputation as a head coach - which may explain the Bolts’ 0-2 record but doesn’t give us much insight into LT’s struggles. Turner’s always been a friend to running backs, whether it’s Frank Gore in 2006, Ricky Williams in his heyday or Emmitt Smith in his glory days.

So what gives? Well, in Tomlinson’s defense, he’s faced two of the league’s toughest defenses (Chicago Bears, New England Patriots) to open the season – the football equivalent of hitting back-to-back speed bumps at 70 mph. My gut tells me the old Tomlinson is going to start showing up, beginning Sunday against a Green Bay Packers defense that is just about average against the run. He’s simply too dangerous to be held in check for an extended period of time, and the schedule soon gets considerably easier.

• Next on our list is Jackson, who’s been held to 60 yards or fewer in two games and has yet to stumble upon the end zone. He was plagued by fumblitis in Week 1, losing the ball twice against the Carolina Panthers – which was odd for a back who coughed it up only twice all of last season. And his involvement in the passing game has been less than expected (four catches for 39 yards).

A popular explanation for Jackson’s lackluster start has been the season-ending injury to Orlando Pace, the St. Louis Rams’ cornerstone left tackle. But we must keep in mind Pace also missed the final seven games of ’06, and Jackson averaged 106 yards a game on the ground during that period.

For now, I’m considering Jackson’s early-season disappointment a freak occurrence. If I have him on my team, I’m starting him this week against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense of which I’m still skeptical; if I don’t own Jackson, I’m sending out a trade offer. He’s going to snap out of it soon.

• Johnson’s case is perhaps the most troublesome of the trio. There was widespread disagreement on the Kansas City Chiefs star’s preseason value, based on a number of factors that have been touched on ad nauseum. I had a sunny outlook for LJ, ranking him third overall, and his 98 rushing yards this season have rained on my parade. The fact that they came against what looks like a much-improved Houston Texans squad and the aforementioned Bears make me feel a little better, but taking into consideration all the preseason question marks, there’s cause for concern.

Then again, if I took LJ with my first pick, I was well aware of the risk, and I was backing him up with a strong No. 2 running back and looking for good depth in the later rounds. Hopefully you did the same.

You’ll have to weather the storm for a few more weeks as Johnson meets the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday before heading to San Diego. You probably won’t get equal value in a trade at this point, and grabbing a one-week wonder off waivers is never a sure thing (as Chris Brown owners can attest). Hold onto LJ and hope for better days ahead.

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