Monday, January 29, 2007

Hope for Eli?

There's no question Eli Manning's development has been slower than the director's cut version of Apocalypse Now. This past season was supposed to be his breakout year - you heard it here first- but he actually seemed to take a step back in the second half. Can you count on him in 2007?

Well you probably can't draft him as your starter, at least not in 10-team leagues. Dude's way too inconsistent, and who knows what that offense will be like with Tiki Barber breaking down hot Fall fashions or whatever he'll be doing on network TV next year. But Eli could be a nice sleeper pick as a backup thanks to the hiring of QB coach Chris Palmer.

You may best remember Palmer for a disastrous two-year stint as head coach of the "expansion" Cleveland Browns from 1999-2000. So why get excited for Eli? Palmer is something of a QB guru, and although his time with Tim Couch and Co. didn't work out that well, Palmer has tutored Drew Bledsoe (when he was good), Mark Brunell (when he was good) and David Carr, and he most recently worked wonders with little-known Tony Romo in Dallas. With Palmer tutoring young Eli and newly promoted offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride calling the plays in a make-or-break year for Tom Coughlin's Giants, there is hope for that big breakout statistical season we've been waiting for.

And before we throw in the towel on Manning as an NFL QB at age 26, let's compare his stats (through three seasons) to another No. 1 pick, Mr. John Elway:

ELWAY: 42 games, 47 TDs, 52 INTs, 8,152 yards, 53 pct. passing, 0-2 playoff record
ELI: 41 games, 54 TDs, 44 INTs, 8,049 yards, 54 pct. passing, 0-2 playoff record

Maybe this is just the deluded Giants fan in me talking (OK, it definitely is), but I still believe there's hope for Eli in '07.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Three favorite words in sports

PITCHERS AND CATCHERS is less than a month away, which means it's already time to get geared up for some fantasy baseball. I'm located in a prime spot here in the Sunshine State for some spring training action, so hopefully I'll be able to bring you the inside scoop on some major league camps in the near future. But for now, here are a few random thoughts on some offseason moves and how they'll impact the fantasy game:

Randy Johnson to Diamondbacks: It's no secret the Big Unit has been on a sharp decline the past two years. In 2006, his strikeouts were way down (although his 172 still put him in the top 20 in the league) and his ERA was way up (5.01). He still managed to win 17 games, but much of that was due to the tremendous run support he got from the Yankees, a blessing he likely won't enjoy in Arizona. So why should we even bother with the 43-year-old? Well, at the risk of sounding like some sort of male enhancement commercial, a comfortable Johnson should be a productive Johnson. Moving west, Randy should benefit by facing weaker NL offenses (It seems like ages ago, but he had a 2.60 ERA in 2004, his last year with the D-Backs). Factor in offseason back surgery and being closer to his family's home and farther from the pressure cooker that is New York, and the Unit could help your team in '07, provided you don't pay too much for him.

CF Willy Taveras to Rockies: There's no question Willy, acquired from the Astros in the Jason Jennings deal, can help you in the steals department. He's got wheels (34 and 33 stolen bases the past two years) and should be batting leadoff for the Rocks in '07. But the move to Coors Field and a spot in what should be a potent lineup is what really raises his stock. Of course, so far he's basically been a singles hitter with no pop (four HRs and 59 RBIs in two full seasons) and awful plate discipline (103 strikeouts/25 walks in '05; 88/34 in '06). His speed will help you, but if he can ever start figuring out how to get on base more often he could become a special player.

Relievers Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez to Braves: Blown saves were probably the biggest contributor in Atlanta's fall from the top of the NL East last season. In fact, their bullpen probably supplied TBS with more laughs than all those crappy Sex and the City reruns. That'll change this year. Their acquisition of veteran truck-driver impersonator Bob Wickman gave them a legit closer, and the acquisition of two young power arms in righty Soriano and lefty Gonzalez creates a serious bullpen. In deep leagues, both will help you in the strikeout department and ERA, and Soriano in WHIP (1.08 in 60 innings last year). But here's the best part: one of them will be closing for Atlanta, either in '08 or earlier if Wickman doesn't hold up.

SS Julio Lugo to Red Sox: The past few years Lugo's been one of those guys near the top of the waiver wire around midseason, just begging to help somebody. His numbers were a bit down last year, but he was injured and also split the season between the Devil Rays and Dodgers. Now he's back in the AL East and could be batting leadoff for a powerful Sox offense. He's a career .277 hitter and no Miguel Tejada, but he's put up some decent totals in runs, RBIs and even homers (15 in '03) in the past, and you might even expect career numbers in those categories. He's also got above-average speed (39 steals in '05, who knew?), but expect a dip since the Sox don't really believe much in stolen bases.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

It's never too early ...

... to start planning for your 2007 football draft. I've put together an extremely early top-10 list. Keep in mind a lot can change (new coaching staffs, injuries, free agency, the draft) between now and August, but here's some help if you're in a keeper league, want to get a jump on the competition or, like me, have too much free time:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Pretty big no-brainer, right? It'd be foolish to expect another record-breaking season from our boy LT2 ... but I wouldn't put it past him either. The only worry I'd have is if he lands on the cover of Madden 2008, so start pulling hard for Drew Brees to make it.

2. Larry Johnson
If it wasn't for LT2's sick year we'd all be talking about LJ. Sure, Herm Edwards basically ran him into the ground, but his knees should be young enough to take some more abuse, and it's nice to know the head coach isn't shy about giving him the ball. If the Chiefs upgrade at QB and/or WR (and after that atrocious playoff performance, they desperately need to) it will only help Johnson next year.

3. Steven Jackson
Jackson only got stronger as the year wore on, establishing himself as a complete player and a bona fide fantasy stud. His game took a massive leap under new coach Scott Linehan, and at this rate, the 23-year-old will soon be putting up Marshall Faulk-type numbers.

4. Frank Gore
Gore is another well-rounded back who set a 49ers season rushing record last year with more than 1,600 yards but who also contributes in the passing game. And just like Gore, the Niners are a team on the rise, with a boatload of spending money (they'll be an estimated $40 million under next year's salary cap), a bunch of extra draft picks and an improving young QB in Alex Smith. These factors can only help Gore post a great season in '07.

5. Shaun Alexander
I know it was a down year for the big guy, due in large part to the infamous cracked bone in his foot. But even before the injury, he didn't quite look like his MVP self from a year earlier. I'm willing to chalk it up to a bad combination of the Madden Curse, a post-Super Bowl letdown for the Seahawks and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency. Alexander showed glimpses of his past domination late in the year, and although he'll be 30 next season I still think there's a lot of production left in him.

6. Peyton Manning
I'm slotting Peyton in the middle of this list, but his true positioning depends on the type of scoring in your league. Move him up or down depending on how important QBs are in your scoring system, but know this: Manning is the most consistent player at his position and virtually the only lock among fantasy QBs from year to year.

7. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook's always been a tantalizing talent, mostly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. But this year he's also proven himself as a workhorse runner, and except for a brief scare with his knee early in the year, he was surprisingly healthy, too. Before 2006, he'd only twice carried more than 20 times in a game (both times cracking the 100-yard rushing barrier). This year he's had five 20-carry games (including last week's playoff win against the Giants), and each time he rushed for 100 or more. If the Eagles continue to be a balanced offensive team with coordinator Marty Morningweg calling the plays, and if Westbrook's knees remain intact, he can have a stellar 2007.

8. Willie Parker
Fast Willie's gone from no-name to Pro Bowler in two short years. He was severly underrated entering this season, his first as a full-time feature back, but he shut everyone up with a huge year that included two 200-yard games, nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and 13 TDs (even more astonishing when you consider he also had five fumbles on the goal line). It remains to be seen how the Stillers offense will operate under a new coaching regime, but a best-case scenario for Parker and his owners would be if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt stays on with Pittsburgh either in that capacity or as head coach.

9. Maurice Jones-Drew
This is a little bit of a reach right now, but I'm slotting the little guy in here based on potential. You saw what he's capable of, and that was without carrying the full load. If the Jaguars decide to cut Fred Taylor this offseason, the sky's the limit for the man they call "Pinball."

10. Rudi Johnson
Although his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time since becoming a starter, RJ scored 12 TDs for the third straight year. If there's one thing fantasy owners love, it's consistency. With Carson Palmer more than a year removed from that ghastly knee injury, the Bengals' offense should be another high-scoring unit, giving Johnson lots of opportunities and making him a safe fantasy pick. Of course, all of this gets thrown out of the window if he gets arrested in an effort to fit in with his teammates.

OTHERS TO WATCH: Joseph Addai could start approaching Edgerrin James territory as the Colts continue to phase out Dominic Rhodes. ... It might be a year late, but Ronnie Brown could have that breakout season we were all expecting in '06. He looked good after coming back from that hand injury, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding his team (new coach, instability at QB, plus the impending second return of Ricky Williams) ... Clinton Portis' value is a little hard to peg right now, given the injuries and emergence of Ladell Betts. I could see him doing anything from reclaiming the sole starting job and being a top-five back, entering the most annoying platoon ever, or maybe even getting traded. ... Palmer is the next best thing after Manning as far as QBs are concerned. I know Drew Brees gained a lot of believers out there, but Palmer has a slightly higher ceiling. ...

Friday, January 05, 2007

And the awards go to ....

Hello and welcome to the 2006 Jason Bartolone Fantasy Football Awards Show Presented by Bank of America. We've got a great turnout tonight ...there's Brett Favre, hey, let's try to keep the emotions in check big guy. ... Tank Johnson's in the house, hope everyone wore their kevlar ... T.O. couldn't make it, he couldn't catch his flight ... but all kidding aside, let's get on with the awards ....

FANTASY MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers.
Honorable mention: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees.

2006 ALL FANTASY TEAM:
QB - Peyton Manning
RB1 - LaDainian Tomlinson
RB2 - Larry Johnson
WR1 - Marvin Harrison
WR2 - Terrell Owens
TE - Antonio Gates
K - Robbie Gould
DEF/special teams - Chicago Bears
Honorable mention: Drew Brees, Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Baltimore Ravens.

BUST OF THE YEAR (tie): Randy Moss/LaMont Jordan, Oakland Raiders.
Honorable mention: Scarlett Johansson.

2006 ALL-BUST TEAM:
QB - Daunte Culpepper
RB1 - LaMont Jordan
RB2 - Cadillac Williams
WR1 - Randy Moss
WR2 - Chris Chambers
K - Mike Vanderjagt
DEF/Special teams - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dishonorable mention: Drew Bledsoe, Kurt Warner, Reuben Droughns, Washington Redskins.

EDDIE GEORGE MEORIAL "HIS KNEES WILL BE BONE-ON-BONE IN FIVE YEARS" AWARD: Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars.
Honorable mention: Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, Vince Young ...

FUTURE FANTASY STUD: Adrian Peterson, Houston Texans?

KURT WARNER MEMORIAL "DEAL WITH THE DEVIL" AWARD: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys.
Honorable mention: Damon Huard, Kansas City Chiefs.

SOPHOMORE SLUMP AWARD: Cadillac Williams.

FRISMAN JACKSON MEMORIAL ONE-WEEK WONDER AWARD (three-way tie): Marcel Shipp/Mike Karney/Artose Pinner.

BEST SINGLE GAME PERFORMANCE: Joseph Addai, Week 12 vs. Eagles (171 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards, four TDs).

WORST SINGLE GAME PERFORMANCE: Steve Smith, Week 16 vs. Falcons (zero catches, zero yards).

MIKE VANDERJAGT MEMORIAL IDIOT KICKER AWARD: Mike Vanderjagt, unemployed.

WHO ARE YOU, AND WHAT HAVE YOU DONE WITH THE REAL RON DAYNE? AWARD: Ron Dayne, Houston Texans (Weeks 13-16).

MOST SURPRISINGLY STABLE KNEE AWARD: Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles.
Honorable mention: Formerly Fragile Fred Taylor.

BREAKOUT PERFORMER: Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers.
Honorable mention: Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns; Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers.

OPPOSITE OF BREAKOUT PERFORMER: Eli Manning, New York Giants.
Dishonorable mention: Matt Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars.

BEST CONVERTED DEFENSIVE BACK AWARD: Mike Furrey, Detroit Lions.

BEST NAME AWARD: Mike Furrey, Detroit Lions.
Honorable mention: Cleo Lemon, Miami Dolphins.

TD VULTURE OF THE YEAR AWARD: Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys.
Honorable mention: Maurice Jones-Drew; Brandon Jacobs.

"OH, NOW I UNDERSTAND THE VALUE OF A QUALITY OFFENSIVE LINE" AWARD: Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals.

MOST ANNOYING RUNNING-BACK-BY-COMMITTEE AWARD: Mike Bell/Tatum Bell/Random Homeless Guys Off the Street, Denver Broncos.
Honorable mention: Patriots, Jets, Cowboys, Texans, Colts ....

MOST ANNOYING FANTASY PLAYER AWARD: Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons.

"HEY, I'M STILL ALIVE" AWARD: Jamal Lewis, Baltimore Ravens.
Honorable mention: Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Deuce McAllister, Chad Pennington, Steve McNair.

FIVE TO WATCH IN '07: Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants; Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers; Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins; Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos; Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers.