Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Yo, Johan! How good will you be in '08?


Hey, I thought I read somewhere a while back that Johan Santana was going to be pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox in 2008, no doubt about it. That there was no way the Mets had the goods to swipe Santana away from the Twins, especially since they weren't willing to give away Jose Reyes in a deal.

Guess you can't believe everything you read.

After a couple months of stalled trade talks, back-and-forth proposals and a few of Hank Steinbrenner's bold proclamations, the Mets suddenly emerged as the front-runner, then reached a tentative deal Tuesday to acquire the left-handed ace.

The real stunner isn't so much that the Mets got Santana, but how they got him. While the Yanks and Sox were tossing around well-known names like Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury - widely considered future big-league stars - the Mets were able to send a so-so package of prospects Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra to Minnesota in exchange for the two-time Cy Young winner. While they are four of the Mets' top seven prospects, none of them projects to be much of a fantasy impact player in 2008.

If it's impact you're looking for, though, Santana's the guy. As if the dude wasn't already the top fantasy pitcher in the game, he now moves to the light-hitting National League (In his 16 interleague starts the past four seasons, he's 10-3 with a 2.16 ERA and has held NL hitters to a 1.84 average). He'll pitch next year at Shea Stadium, a pitcher's park where he sports a career 0.60 ERA. And the Mets own what could be the NL's most potent offense, which is an upgrade from what Santana had with the Twins.

My preliminary fantasy rankings for 2008 put Santana at the sixth overall spot - behind Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez and David Wright - and that was with Santana still pitching for the Twins and coming off what some might call a "down" year in 2007. I'm almost tempted to move Santana up to fifth overall - he's definitely the first pitcher that should be taken off the board and may be even more valuable than he already was, if you can believe it. It'd be an upset if he doesn't with another Cy Young in '08.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Don't forget about Liriano

You remember Francisco Liriano, right? If you played fantasy baseball in 2006, how could you not?

Liriano was a rookie phenom for the Minnesota Twins that year, going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA. But an elbow injury and Tommy John surgery sidelined him all of last season, robbing fantasy owners of one of the best young lefties the game has produced in a decade.

Now, here's the good news: Liriano is back, and tells MLB.com he feels fine and will be ready to go in 2008. He's more than a year removed from his surgery, typically the benchmark for recovery, and the Tommy John recovery rate is now said to be around 90 percent or so.

Will he have the same dominating repertoire of pitches? Will his fastball still reach 97 mph? Will he be ready for a spot in the Twins' major league rotation on Opening Day (Lord knows they need him, especially if Johan Santana does get traded) or will he begin the year in Triple-A? We'll be watching Liriano closely in spring training, and you should do the same. A healthy Liriano should probably be among the top 25 pitchers drafted this year and has the potential to be a fantasy top 10.